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Open Thread 48: Penultimate Football Thread
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So as I said I’m supporting Perfidious Albion over the Ustaše today, but convinced by Marko Marjanović’s apologetics, I will settle back into neutrality once the Finals roll by.

I have a feeling that the Eternal Anglo will win today, anyway (and yes, I wrote this sentence before their goal at 5 minutes). But at this level it’s just a roll of the dice, anyway.

This will also hopefully be my second to last thread on this damnable sport for the next two years.

PS. A British 16 year old football fan makes some videos about how life in Russia is actually rather nice. You are a (self-proclaimed) leader of Russian (pseudo-)democratic opposition.

How do you react?

By furiously attacking him for his contemptible lack of Russophobia, of course:

navalny-hates-russia

Twitter account of Navalny’s political organization: “Russian propaganda once again entertains a fake blogger. The British blogger Theo, who debunked myths about Russia in his video, turned out to be the son of a non-executive director of Volga Gas and the top manager of several other Russian companies.

milov-hates-russia

Creepy whackjob Vladimir Milov, with his beady eyes: “You love Russia??? You praise a mafia dictatorship which seized our country. I hope instant karma gets you rather sooner than later for this.

Demonstration #892,937 of why the Russian liberals have margin of error like approval ratings.

 
• Category: Miscellaneous • Tags: Football, Liberalism, Open Thread, Russia 
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  1. neutral says:

    Can’t really call them them the “Eternal Anglo” if half the team is African.

    Read More
    • Replies: @Mitleser
    They should use this flag.

    https://vignette.wikia.nocookie.net/althistory/images/7/7a/New_Britain_Flag_3.png

    The Flag of New Britain
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  2. DFH says:

    I hope the Croats win

    Read More
    • Replies: @Anatoly Karlin
    And I'm supposed to be the Anglophobe!?
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  3. @DFH
    I hope the Croats win

    And I’m supposed to be the Anglophobe!?

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  4. Mitleser says:
    @neutral
    Can't really call them them the "Eternal Anglo" if half the team is African.

    They should use this flag.

    The Flag of New Britain

    Read More
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  5. It would be lovely if England win, get through to the final and firmly exorcise the mediocrity of recent years. However a French midfield of Kante, Pogba and Matuidi would overwhelm Henderson, Lingard and Alli so today’s result is rather academic. Croatia look really tired and would be distinct underdogs if they get through.

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  6. First off: Credit to German_reader and Mitseler for predicting Merkel’s survival

    Second: Tesla at $318 and has an unprecedented number of sell recommendations by analysts. There has, however, been improvement in production volume.

    Third: Trump accusing Germany of being “totally controlled” by Russia is pure genius.

    Read More
    • Replies: @Hyperborean
    Regarding Tesla, do you think the US-China trade war will have any effect on profits?
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  7. @Thorfinnsson
    First off: Credit to German_reader and Mitseler for predicting Merkel's survival

    Second: Tesla at $318 and has an unprecedented number of sell recommendations by analysts. There has, however, been improvement in production volume.

    Third: Trump accusing Germany of being "totally controlled" by Russia is pure genius.

    Regarding Tesla, do you think the US-China trade war will have any effect on profits?

    Read More
    • Replies: @Thorfinnsson
    See Tesla's 2017 10-K filing with the Securities and Exchange Commission here: https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/1318605/000156459018002956/tsla-10k_20171231.htm

    China accounted for $2bn of Tesla's $11.7bn of revenue.

    Owing to China's new tariffs the prices of the Model S and Model X have been raised by 20%: https://www.reuters.com/article/us-usa-trade-china/tesla-moves-first-to-hike-prices-in-china-as-trade-war-hits-car-makers-idUSKBN1JZ1AK

    There will be a materially negative impact. We can't rule out European retaliation either--I'm sure the German automakers would love to trim Tesla's sails. Norway is Tesla's third largest market.

    Tesla claims they will build a 500,000 vehicle assembly plant in China: https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2018-07-10/tesla-is-said-to-plan-china-plant-with-500-000-vehicle-capacity

    Of course this will take some time, and they don't have the capital for it. I don't believe Chinese law allows them to sell equity on Chinese exchanges either, though Hong Kong does.

    Tesla could contract out assembly to other companies (Magna would be the logical choice in Europe), but I doubt Musk is willing to do such a thing. In fact I'm not even sure it would be possible given Tesla's highly irregular manufacturing practices such as having no Tier One suppliers other than Panasonic and nVidia.

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  8. >cheering for the African and Muslim England team
    >”based”

    Cheer for the Croatian neo Nazis

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  9. ZA DOM
    SPREMNI!
    As a wagecuck I will be sleep deprived at work tomorrow but I don’t regret it. Good match, and it ended well too.

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  10. Mitleser says:

    Africa will defeat you in the next game, Croats.

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  11. anon[256] • Disclaimer says:

    Meh… Very disappointing performance from “Eternal Anglo”.

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  12. That Milov guy is such a repulsive untermensch lol

    He could be a worthy successor to Gary Kasparov.

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  13. Bliss says:

    England is gutted.

    The Croats deserved the win. From the beginning of the second half they were the better team.

    Amazingly, playing in their 3rd consecutive overtime they looked more energetic than the younger English.

    Read More
    • Replies: @Bliss
    The Croats came out angry for the second half. They were physically and psychologically bullying the English. They got yellow cards. But it worked. The English seemed noticeably psyched out. It went downhill from there. The party is over for the motherland of Football.

    But, let’s face it: they were lucky to get this far. Getting into the weaker bracket by choosing to lose against Belgium in the round of 16.
    , @DNC
    England does not ( as of yet ) have a winter break. All major European leagues have at least 10 days off ( sometimes as much as 3 weeks, in Germany's case ) around the Christmas period. In fact it's the opposite in England: they have a flurry of matches at that time. The PL is also the 'fastest' of the major leagues with the shortest amount of time for possession turnovers
    , @LondonBob
    Yes the Croats displayed levels of endurance that defy explanation...
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  14. Marko Marjanović’s strong case notwithstanding, I think the very idea of “Croatia” represents all that is wrong and ugly about the Balkans and, in extension, the Slavonic world (neverending narcissism of small differences, etc.). I will cheer on Les Bleus in the final. Vive la France!

    Read More
    • Disagree: reiner Tor
    • Replies: @DFH
    What is wrong with little nations?
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  15. Mitleser says:

    DJT sticks with his South Slavs.

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  16. Bliss says:
    @Bliss
    England is gutted.

    The Croats deserved the win. From the beginning of the second half they were the better team.

    Amazingly, playing in their 3rd consecutive overtime they looked more energetic than the younger English.

    The Croats came out angry for the second half. They were physically and psychologically bullying the English. They got yellow cards. But it worked. The English seemed noticeably psyched out. It went downhill from there. The party is over for the motherland of Football.

    But, let’s face it: they were lucky to get this far. Getting into the weaker bracket by choosing to lose against Belgium in the round of 16.

    Read More
    • Replies: @Beckow
    Croats have better individual skills and once they started to play seriously in the 2nd half, England looked toothless and lost most balls. Croatia controlled the game. They were cutting through English defence like a knife through butter. It was a good game overall. The checkered flag is also cool (nicely symbolising Croats' checkered history).

    England would get massacred against France, so this was not a bad way for them to exit.

    , @Ali Choudhury
    True. England would have probably lost to Columbia if James Rodriguez had been fit. Lucky to get this far.
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  17. @Hyperborean
    Regarding Tesla, do you think the US-China trade war will have any effect on profits?

    See Tesla’s 2017 10-K filing with the Securities and Exchange Commission here: https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/1318605/000156459018002956/tsla-10k_20171231.htm

    China accounted for $2bn of Tesla’s $11.7bn of revenue.

    Owing to China’s new tariffs the prices of the Model S and Model X have been raised by 20%: https://www.reuters.com/article/us-usa-trade-china/tesla-moves-first-to-hike-prices-in-china-as-trade-war-hits-car-makers-idUSKBN1JZ1AK

    There will be a materially negative impact. We can’t rule out European retaliation either–I’m sure the German automakers would love to trim Tesla’s sails. Norway is Tesla’s third largest market.

    Tesla claims they will build a 500,000 vehicle assembly plant in China: https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2018-07-10/tesla-is-said-to-plan-china-plant-with-500-000-vehicle-capacity

    Of course this will take some time, and they don’t have the capital for it. I don’t believe Chinese law allows them to sell equity on Chinese exchanges either, though Hong Kong does.

    Tesla could contract out assembly to other companies (Magna would be the logical choice in Europe), but I doubt Musk is willing to do such a thing. In fact I’m not even sure it would be possible given Tesla’s highly irregular manufacturing practices such as having no Tier One suppliers other than Panasonic and nVidia.

    Read More
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  18. DFH says:
    @Swedish Family
    Marko Marjanović’s strong case notwithstanding, I think the very idea of "Croatia" represents all that is wrong and ugly about the Balkans and, in extension, the Slavonic world (neverending narcissism of small differences, etc.). I will cheer on Les Bleus in the final. Vive la France!

    What is wrong with little nations?

    Read More
    • Replies: @Swedish Family

    What is wrong with little nations?
     
    Nothing much -- if they come to be organically. But I do have a problem with balkanization, especially when the petty little quarrels turn into war and genocide. There is also something offensive, I think, about a possibly great country of some 20 million splintering into half a dozen Lilliputian states with no chance of ever sustaining truly lively cultures.
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  19. Beckow says:
    @Bliss
    The Croats came out angry for the second half. They were physically and psychologically bullying the English. They got yellow cards. But it worked. The English seemed noticeably psyched out. It went downhill from there. The party is over for the motherland of Football.

    But, let’s face it: they were lucky to get this far. Getting into the weaker bracket by choosing to lose against Belgium in the round of 16.

    Croats have better individual skills and once they started to play seriously in the 2nd half, England looked toothless and lost most balls. Croatia controlled the game. They were cutting through English defence like a knife through butter. It was a good game overall. The checkered flag is also cool (nicely symbolising Croats’ checkered history).

    England would get massacred against France, so this was not a bad way for them to exit.

    Read More
    • Replies: @LondonBob
    I would happily lost by a few goals to Belgium in the final, France would have been painful.
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  20. @Bliss
    The Croats came out angry for the second half. They were physically and psychologically bullying the English. They got yellow cards. But it worked. The English seemed noticeably psyched out. It went downhill from there. The party is over for the motherland of Football.

    But, let’s face it: they were lucky to get this far. Getting into the weaker bracket by choosing to lose against Belgium in the round of 16.

    True. England would have probably lost to Columbia if James Rodriguez had been fit. Lucky to get this far.

    Read More
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  21. Judging by flags on cars, my neighbourhood is full of Croatia fans. I wish them a good party tonight. I think I’m going to rewatch this great movie about the first World Cup of 1930.

    The Yugoslavia team was all Serbian then, but the filmmakers made a point to include a Croatian character (immigrant in Montevideo whose rundown hotel the team stays in) and a story of national conflict that football will transform into unity. Nice, and it seems viewers in both countries loved it.

    Read More
    • Replies: @Mikhail
    Toronto Metros Croatia from the original NASL:

    https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Toronto_Croatia

    Some games in that league could get divisively ethnic. Recall an exhibition match between the NY Cosmos and Torpedo Moscow in the early 1970s, played within a then ethnic Ukrainian (mostly former Habsburg western Ukrainian) enclave on Long Island.

    During the game, one of the fans shouted some expletives in Russian (perhaps Ukrainian, but understandable in Russian) to a Torpedo player, who answered back as he was dribbling the ball. The crowd in the stands laughed, with some (perhaps) appreciation for that Torpedo player.

    A few years later, the Cosmos had a Serb player Vitomir "Vito" Dimitrijević, who would get whistled at every time he touched the ball during a Toronto Metros Croatia home match.

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  22. Gerard2 says:

    Excellent concise post….just the one problem…….Karlin is every bit the russophobic liberast as a tramp like Milov

    Read More
    • Replies: @Anatoly Karlin
    You are always free to get off my blog, I am sure that most of us would appreciate it. You are a walking advertisement for Russophobia, but are too dumb to realize it.
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  23. Ran into some boorish England fans so ultimately not sorry they lost.

    Anyhow I’m sure the Eternal Anglo cooperated with the Ustase to throw the match just to stick it to Russia.

    Read More
    • Replies: @Chuck
    It was a victory for justice and honor. The Croatian team is actually Croatian.
    , @Spisarevski

    just to stick it to Russia.
     
    Why though, Croatia's victory only makes the Russian team look better, and they will look even better if the Croats become champions and beat Africa in the final.
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  24. Dmitry says:

    Lol, this Theo kid (I was watching his videos from the beginning last month) wants to improve friendship with the UK public.

    He seems quite a simple and friendly kid, and not him or his father, ever say any kind of political opinions, or any opinions about the authorities.

    There’s zero reason to attack him at all, unless you particularly don’t like English people, or support for friendly relations with the English public.

    Karlin will have some reason to criticize him, maybe, if he doesn’t want too many borish English tourists to flood in the centre of Moscow and disrupt his evening’s atmosphere.

    Read More
    • Replies: @Dmitry
    The "sinister" history of his father - having (supposedly) first vegetarian restaurant in Russia.

    https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=3ozisLrhDvQ&feature=youtu.be&t=1m50s
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  25. @Gerard2
    Excellent concise post....just the one problem.......Karlin is every bit the russophobic liberast as a tramp like Milov

    You are always free to get off my blog, I am sure that most of us would appreciate it. You are a walking advertisement for Russophobia, but are too dumb to realize it.

    Read More
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  26. Dmitry says:
    @Dmitry
    Lol, this Theo kid (I was watching his videos from the beginning last month) wants to improve friendship with the UK public.

    He seems quite a simple and friendly kid, and not him or his father, ever say any kind of political opinions, or any opinions about the authorities.

    There's zero reason to attack him at all, unless you particularly don't like English people, or support for friendly relations with the English public.

    Karlin will have some reason to criticize him, maybe, if he doesn't want too many borish English tourists to flood in the centre of Moscow and disrupt his evening's atmosphere.

    The “sinister” history of his father – having (supposedly) first vegetarian restaurant in Russia.

    Read More
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  27. Karlin, did you ever get a laptop?

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  28. Chuck says:
    @Anatoly Karlin
    Ran into some boorish England fans so ultimately not sorry they lost.

    Anyhow I'm sure the Eternal Anglo cooperated with the Ustase to throw the match just to stick it to Russia.

    It was a victory for justice and honor. The Croatian team is actually Croatian.

    Read More
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  29. Bliss says:

    Prediction for the France vs Croatia final:

    It will be an ugly match full of fouling and flopping and perhaps even fighting. Croatia will try to injure Mbappe, their biggest threat, and if they succeed and get away with it without a red card then all bets are off.

    Otherwise France wins.

    Read More
    • Replies: @Bliss
    Damn, I was so wrong (except about the result).

    You got to love the Croats. They are warriors. And a class act.

    They played better for most of the game. Take away the penalty kick and the own goal and this game would have gone into overtime.
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  30. @Anatoly Karlin
    Ran into some boorish England fans so ultimately not sorry they lost.

    Anyhow I'm sure the Eternal Anglo cooperated with the Ustase to throw the match just to stick it to Russia.

    just to stick it to Russia.

    Why though, Croatia’s victory only makes the Russian team look better, and they will look even better if the Croats become champions and beat Africa in the final.

    Read More
    • Replies: @Mikhail
    Djokovic is getting some heat:

    https://www.tennisworldusa.org/tennis/news/Novak_Djokovic/57599/world-cup-novak-djokovic-cheers-for-croatia-and-gets-heavily-criticized/

    Relates to my earlier observation on how a number of former Yugoslavs will root for each other.
    , @Anatoly Karlin
    The Backstabbing Bulgar joins the grand conspiracy against Russia. Should have known it! ;)
    , @vinteuil

    Croatia’s victory only makes the Russian team look better
     
    Yes! I mean, Russia came closer to beating Croatia than England did - and that was when Croatia wasn't so worn out.

    Ergo, Russia probably would have won against England.
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  31. Mikhail says: • Website
    @Toronto Russian
    Judging by flags on cars, my neighbourhood is full of Croatia fans. I wish them a good party tonight. I think I'm going to rewatch this great movie about the first World Cup of 1930.
    https://youtu.be/cARFBihsR6Q

    The Yugoslavia team was all Serbian then, but the filmmakers made a point to include a Croatian character (immigrant in Montevideo whose rundown hotel the team stays in) and a story of national conflict that football will transform into unity. Nice, and it seems viewers in both countries loved it.

    Toronto Metros Croatia from the original NASL:

    https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Toronto_Croatia

    Some games in that league could get divisively ethnic. Recall an exhibition match between the NY Cosmos and Torpedo Moscow in the early 1970s, played within a then ethnic Ukrainian (mostly former Habsburg western Ukrainian) enclave on Long Island.

    During the game, one of the fans shouted some expletives in Russian (perhaps Ukrainian, but understandable in Russian) to a Torpedo player, who answered back as he was dribbling the ball. The crowd in the stands laughed, with some (perhaps) appreciation for that Torpedo player.

    A few years later, the Cosmos had a Serb player Vitomir “Vito” Dimitrijević, who would get whistled at every time he touched the ball during a Toronto Metros Croatia home match.

    Read More
    • Replies: @Toronto Russian
    Thanks for the info. I didn't know about ethnic sports teams. It's all school teams around, plus boat sport clubs on the lake. No single diaspora lives here in enough concentration, like Russians around Yummy Market - which area has its own football team, FC Vorkuta:)
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  32. Mikhail says: • Website
    @Spisarevski

    just to stick it to Russia.
     
    Why though, Croatia's victory only makes the Russian team look better, and they will look even better if the Croats become champions and beat Africa in the final.

    Djokovic is getting some heat:

    https://www.tennisworldusa.org/tennis/news/Novak_Djokovic/57599/world-cup-novak-djokovic-cheers-for-croatia-and-gets-heavily-criticized/

    Relates to my earlier observation on how a number of former Yugoslavs will root for each other.

    Read More
    • Replies: @neutral
    People in Africa will support their team France, the anti white media outlets (Economist, NYT, Spiegel,...) will support France. Yet whites will bicker amongst each other about some event in history that happened centuries ago, so they would rather support a black team over a white time because of these meaningless disputes, truly depressing.
    , @Niccolo Salo
    Djokovic's mother is Croatian and he has never displayed any Serbian nationalism (saying "Kosovo is Serbia" isn't nationalist at all btw) so this is no surprise from him.

    And he is very popular here in Croatia.
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  33. @Spisarevski

    just to stick it to Russia.
     
    Why though, Croatia's victory only makes the Russian team look better, and they will look even better if the Croats become champions and beat Africa in the final.

    The Backstabbing Bulgar joins the grand conspiracy against Russia. Should have known it! ;)

    Read More
    • LOL: Spisarevski
    • Replies: @reiner Tor
    I know you wrote it in jest, but it makes a lot of sense to support the team which stopped your team. In 2016 I supported Belgium for this reason, but they managed to lose against Wales, which then lost to Portugal. So I switched to hating them, especially because they were arrogant and so on.
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  34. @Anatoly Karlin
    The Backstabbing Bulgar joins the grand conspiracy against Russia. Should have known it! ;)

    I know you wrote it in jest, but it makes a lot of sense to support the team which stopped your team. In 2016 I supported Belgium for this reason, but they managed to lose against Wales, which then lost to Portugal. So I switched to hating them, especially because they were arrogant and so on.

    Read More
    • Replies: @Ivan K.

    it makes a lot of sense to support the team which stopped your team
     
    Except when it comes to someone with a recent track record like Karlin's. I hope he'll find he loves France, profoundly and unyieldingly.
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  35. Mitleser says:

    The future of Christianity seems to be in Africa.

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  36. Ivan K. says:
    @reiner Tor
    I know you wrote it in jest, but it makes a lot of sense to support the team which stopped your team. In 2016 I supported Belgium for this reason, but they managed to lose against Wales, which then lost to Portugal. So I switched to hating them, especially because they were arrogant and so on.

    it makes a lot of sense to support the team which stopped your team

    Except when it comes to someone with a recent track record like Karlin’s. I hope he’ll find he loves France, profoundly and unyieldingly.

    Read More
    • LOL: reiner Tor
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  37. Mikhail says: • Website

    The latest from JRL promoted Keith Gessen:

    https://www.nytimes.com/2018/07/07/opinion/sunday/russia-news-attention.html

    Just how many are tortured in Russia? This coming from the guy who JRL touted as being some kind of an earth shattering alternative.

    Another prima donna got a bit pissed, with some idiotic follow-up:

    Read More
    • Replies: @vinteuil
    Yeah, I thought Keith was supposed to be the sane Gessen.

    So much for that theory.
    , @Mitleser

    I was a fan of their early albums — “Late Socialism,” “Perestroika,” “Deindustrialization” — but everyone listens to them now.
     
    Go to hell, Keith.
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  38. DNC says:
    @Bliss
    England is gutted.

    The Croats deserved the win. From the beginning of the second half they were the better team.

    Amazingly, playing in their 3rd consecutive overtime they looked more energetic than the younger English.

    England does not ( as of yet ) have a winter break. All major European leagues have at least 10 days off ( sometimes as much as 3 weeks, in Germany’s case ) around the Christmas period. In fact it’s the opposite in England: they have a flurry of matches at that time. The PL is also the ‘fastest’ of the major leagues with the shortest amount of time for possession turnovers

    Read More
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  39. vinteuil says:

    It’s pretty depressing reading the comments on “Marko Marjanović’s apologetics” to which you link. It really does seem that a lot of Serbs & Croats would rather hang separately than hang together.

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  40. vinteuil says:
    @Spisarevski

    just to stick it to Russia.
     
    Why though, Croatia's victory only makes the Russian team look better, and they will look even better if the Croats become champions and beat Africa in the final.

    Croatia’s victory only makes the Russian team look better

    Yes! I mean, Russia came closer to beating Croatia than England did – and that was when Croatia wasn’t so worn out.

    Ergo, Russia probably would have won against England.

    Read More
    • Replies: @Spisarevski
    Exactly.
    Imagine if Croatia beats France too, without going to penalties.
    Then you could say something like "the toughest match that the new World Champion played was against Russia"
    Absolutely unimaginable just a month ago.
    This world cup has really been amazing in all respects.
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  41. vinteuil says:
    @Mikhail
    The latest from JRL promoted Keith Gessen:

    https://www.nytimes.com/2018/07/07/opinion/sunday/russia-news-attention.html

    Just how many are tortured in Russia? This coming from the guy who JRL touted as being some kind of an earth shattering alternative.

    Another prima donna got a bit pissed, with some idiotic follow-up:

    https://twitter.com/juliaioffe/status/1016134731409305602

    Yeah, I thought Keith was supposed to be the sane Gessen.

    So much for that theory.

    Read More
    • Replies: @Mikhail
    My opinion of him has been consistent.
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  42. @vinteuil

    Croatia’s victory only makes the Russian team look better
     
    Yes! I mean, Russia came closer to beating Croatia than England did - and that was when Croatia wasn't so worn out.

    Ergo, Russia probably would have won against England.

    Exactly.
    Imagine if Croatia beats France too, without going to penalties.
    Then you could say something like “the toughest match that the new World Champion played was against Russia”
    Absolutely unimaginable just a month ago.
    This world cup has really been amazing in all respects.

    Read More
    • Replies: @Mikhail
    On the other hand, Uruguay decisively beat Russia 3-0.
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  43. Mitleser says:

    Greater Turkestan shall crush the Arians.

    Read More
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  44. Mitleser says:
    @Mikhail
    The latest from JRL promoted Keith Gessen:

    https://www.nytimes.com/2018/07/07/opinion/sunday/russia-news-attention.html

    Just how many are tortured in Russia? This coming from the guy who JRL touted as being some kind of an earth shattering alternative.

    Another prima donna got a bit pissed, with some idiotic follow-up:

    https://twitter.com/juliaioffe/status/1016134731409305602

    I was a fan of their early albums — “Late Socialism,” “Perestroika,” “Deindustrialization” — but everyone listens to them now.

    Go to hell, Keith.

    Read More
    • Replies: @Mikhail
    Applies to Keith Gessen:

    https://www.strategic-culture.org/news/2018/07/12/more-mumbo-jumbo-on-russia.html
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  45. Sean says:

    http://www.martin-van-creveld.com/the-good-the-bad-and-the-befuddled/

    Review of The Road to Unfreedom: Russia, Europe, America, New York, NY, Tim Duggan, 2018

    Putin’s ambition is to enter history as the savior of his people…. he turned to what Snyder calls “eternity politics.” By this view, whose chief propagator used to be one Ivan Ilyin (1883-1954), it is the Russians who have always been a victim of others. Including, to mention but a few, the Mongols, the Poles, the Swedes, the French, the Germans, and, most recently, the West. The latter, using its wealth and its alleged democratic values as battering rams, has consistently sought to set them against each other and weaken them. Yet in all this it was the Russians who somehow managed to maintain their pristine virtues, including patience, endurance, and sexual purity (which, Snyder says, is why Putin has turned to denouncing and persecuting homosexuals) [...]As Snyder rightly says, though it may sound like war minus in reality it is war plus. Including, apart from the usual open clashes between regular armies (which, in the Ukraine, only played a relatively minor role) military operations mounted by every sort of militia, identifiable or not; assassinations, subversion, and bribery; cyberattacks aimed at every kind of hostile political organization as well as infrastructure targets such as websites, factories, electricity grids, and power plant; and, above all, propaganda. Partly generated by bots, launched both by way of the social networks and by more traditional means such as TV, that propaganda so massive as to eliminate the distinction between the real and the unreal, truth and falsehood—which, Snyder says, is just how “eternity” politics work. And so massive as to make one wonder how those who design it and spread it are able to retain their sanity among all the lies they themselves invent.

    Read More
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  46. More purchasing advice for everyone.

    If you drink coffee, tea, or other hot beverages; I highly recommend double-wall borosilicate glass mugs from the Danish company Bodum. Unlike other double-wall drinking vessels, Bodum’s have silicone gaskets to equalize the pressure between ambient and within the mug–eliminating the possibility of unsightly condensation within the double-wall.

    It is of course dishwasher safe, and for those of you unaware borosilicate glass is very difficult to break. Pyrex was originally made of borosilicate before Corning sold the brand (it’s now made out of mere tempered glass–go with Anchor Hocking instead).

    https://www.bodum.com/us/en/10604-10us4-bistro

    I have been using these for two weeks now at home and in the office. The problem of my coffee getting cold before I finish the mug is eliminated.

    Read More
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  47. Georgia was just promised NATO membership. It’s unclear if it’s just empty words or not.

    https://www.nato.int/cps/en/natohq/opinions_156735.htm

    Read More
    • Replies: @Mitleser
    Cheap promise.

    He did not say when Georgia is supposed to join.
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  48. neutral says:
    @Mikhail
    Djokovic is getting some heat:

    https://www.tennisworldusa.org/tennis/news/Novak_Djokovic/57599/world-cup-novak-djokovic-cheers-for-croatia-and-gets-heavily-criticized/

    Relates to my earlier observation on how a number of former Yugoslavs will root for each other.

    People in Africa will support their team France, the anti white media outlets (Economist, NYT, Spiegel,…) will support France. Yet whites will bicker amongst each other about some event in history that happened centuries ago, so they would rather support a black team over a white time because of these meaningless disputes, truly depressing.

    Read More
    • Replies: @Thorfinnsson
    The bad blood between Serbia and Croatia isn't trivial and didn't happen centuries ago. Operation Storm took place in 1995, and there were substantial ethnic cleansing operations by both Serb and Croat forces through the Yugoslav wars.

    And while a lot longer ago, WW2 is still a living memory for some.

    That said this makes me like Novak Djokovic more, who was already my favorite tennis star.

    And I'm pretty sure that nearly all racially conscious whites are supporting Croatia.

    https://pbs.twimg.com/media/Dh2hMOnXUAAiGD9.jpg

    https://cdn.images.express.co.uk/img/dynamic/78/590x/trump-987387.jpg?r=1531329250764
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  49. @neutral
    People in Africa will support their team France, the anti white media outlets (Economist, NYT, Spiegel,...) will support France. Yet whites will bicker amongst each other about some event in history that happened centuries ago, so they would rather support a black team over a white time because of these meaningless disputes, truly depressing.

    The bad blood between Serbia and Croatia isn’t trivial and didn’t happen centuries ago. Operation Storm took place in 1995, and there were substantial ethnic cleansing operations by both Serb and Croat forces through the Yugoslav wars.

    And while a lot longer ago, WW2 is still a living memory for some.

    That said this makes me like Novak Djokovic more, who was already my favorite tennis star.

    And I’m pretty sure that nearly all racially conscious whites are supporting Croatia.

    Read More
    • Replies: @Mikhail
    A number of Serbs and Croats each have some of the other's background.

    They don't all hate each other. During the Bosnian Civil War, many Croats and Serbs (as well as some secular Bosnian Muslims) found common cause against the Izetbegovic regime.
    , @Spisarevski

    That said this makes me like Novak Djokovic more, who was already my favorite tennis star.
     
    He is likeable in general and yes it would be nice if Croats and Serbs bury the hatchet and can support each other, however he got shit specifically because he supported Croatia against Russia.
    , @Matra
    That said this makes me like Novak Djokovic more, who was already my favorite tennis star.

    Djokovic has called on Europeans to let in more refugees from Syria. I've also seen photos of him hanging out with Garry Kasparov. Based on such info I think we can safely conclude that his support for Croatia is unconnected to Richard Spencer's call for an end to petty European nationalism.
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  50. Mitleser says:
    @reiner Tor
    Georgia was just promised NATO membership. It’s unclear if it’s just empty words or not.

    https://www.nato.int/cps/en/natohq/opinions_156735.htm

    Cheap promise.

    He did not say when Georgia is supposed to join.

    Read More
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  51. Mikhail says: • Website
    @vinteuil
    Yeah, I thought Keith was supposed to be the sane Gessen.

    So much for that theory.

    My opinion of him has been consistent.

    Read More
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  52. Mikhail says: • Website
    @Spisarevski
    Exactly.
    Imagine if Croatia beats France too, without going to penalties.
    Then you could say something like "the toughest match that the new World Champion played was against Russia"
    Absolutely unimaginable just a month ago.
    This world cup has really been amazing in all respects.

    On the other hand, Uruguay decisively beat Russia 3-0.

    Read More
    • Replies: @Spisarevski

    On the other hand, Uruguay decisively beat Russia 3-0.
     
    Nigeria beat Bulgaria 3:0 in 1994 but we still went to the semi-finals and they didn't :)
    , @Gerard2

    On the other hand, Uruguay decisively beat Russia 3-0.
     
    Golovin was rested for the game

    It was a dead game,

    Uruguay who were shockingly bad and negative in the first two games completely changed their set-up and tactics for the match.

    Russia would have had no incentive to play well because they wouldn't have had a clue who they would face in the next round because Spain and Portugal drew their match together and both won their second games by 1 goal

    The only incentive Russia would have had, would be to finish second , because that would guarantee a match in Moscow, where the team are based and where the majority of the squad play their football

    This was a colossal performance by the Russian team, so close against Croatia and they would have easily trampled on England to get to the final
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  53. Mikhail says: • Website
    @Thorfinnsson
    The bad blood between Serbia and Croatia isn't trivial and didn't happen centuries ago. Operation Storm took place in 1995, and there were substantial ethnic cleansing operations by both Serb and Croat forces through the Yugoslav wars.

    And while a lot longer ago, WW2 is still a living memory for some.

    That said this makes me like Novak Djokovic more, who was already my favorite tennis star.

    And I'm pretty sure that nearly all racially conscious whites are supporting Croatia.

    https://pbs.twimg.com/media/Dh2hMOnXUAAiGD9.jpg

    https://cdn.images.express.co.uk/img/dynamic/78/590x/trump-987387.jpg?r=1531329250764

    A number of Serbs and Croats each have some of the other’s background.

    They don’t all hate each other. During the Bosnian Civil War, many Croats and Serbs (as well as some secular Bosnian Muslims) found common cause against the Izetbegovic regime.

    Read More
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  54. @Mikhail
    Djokovic is getting some heat:

    https://www.tennisworldusa.org/tennis/news/Novak_Djokovic/57599/world-cup-novak-djokovic-cheers-for-croatia-and-gets-heavily-criticized/

    Relates to my earlier observation on how a number of former Yugoslavs will root for each other.

    Djokovic’s mother is Croatian and he has never displayed any Serbian nationalism (saying “Kosovo is Serbia” isn’t nationalist at all btw) so this is no surprise from him.

    And he is very popular here in Croatia.

    Read More
    • Replies: @Niccolo Salo
    https://twitter.com/V4Analysis/status/1017431896496713729
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  55. @Niccolo Salo
    Djokovic's mother is Croatian and he has never displayed any Serbian nationalism (saying "Kosovo is Serbia" isn't nationalist at all btw) so this is no surprise from him.

    And he is very popular here in Croatia.

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  56. Mikhail says: • Website
    Read More
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  57. @Thorfinnsson
    The bad blood between Serbia and Croatia isn't trivial and didn't happen centuries ago. Operation Storm took place in 1995, and there were substantial ethnic cleansing operations by both Serb and Croat forces through the Yugoslav wars.

    And while a lot longer ago, WW2 is still a living memory for some.

    That said this makes me like Novak Djokovic more, who was already my favorite tennis star.

    And I'm pretty sure that nearly all racially conscious whites are supporting Croatia.

    https://pbs.twimg.com/media/Dh2hMOnXUAAiGD9.jpg

    https://cdn.images.express.co.uk/img/dynamic/78/590x/trump-987387.jpg?r=1531329250764

    That said this makes me like Novak Djokovic more, who was already my favorite tennis star.

    He is likeable in general and yes it would be nice if Croats and Serbs bury the hatchet and can support each other, however he got shit specifically because he supported Croatia against Russia.

    Read More
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  58. Matra says:
    @Thorfinnsson
    The bad blood between Serbia and Croatia isn't trivial and didn't happen centuries ago. Operation Storm took place in 1995, and there were substantial ethnic cleansing operations by both Serb and Croat forces through the Yugoslav wars.

    And while a lot longer ago, WW2 is still a living memory for some.

    That said this makes me like Novak Djokovic more, who was already my favorite tennis star.

    And I'm pretty sure that nearly all racially conscious whites are supporting Croatia.

    https://pbs.twimg.com/media/Dh2hMOnXUAAiGD9.jpg

    https://cdn.images.express.co.uk/img/dynamic/78/590x/trump-987387.jpg?r=1531329250764

    That said this makes me like Novak Djokovic more, who was already my favorite tennis star.

    Djokovic has called on Europeans to let in more refugees from Syria. I’ve also seen photos of him hanging out with Garry Kasparov. Based on such info I think we can safely conclude that his support for Croatia is unconnected to Richard Spencer’s call for an end to petty European nationalism.

    Read More
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  59. @Mikhail
    On the other hand, Uruguay decisively beat Russia 3-0.

    On the other hand, Uruguay decisively beat Russia 3-0.

    Nigeria beat Bulgaria 3:0 in 1994 but we still went to the semi-finals and they didn’t :)

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  60. Mitleser says:

    Trump is old-school.

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  61. Whatever is happening at the Russian central bank, it isn’t sane and it needs to stop.

    Note that the Russian recovery started in earnest in 2017, it now looks like GDP growth was underestimated for much of this period and on top of that inflation has structurally declined. In such circumstances you’d reduce real interest rates yet what you see here is the exact opposite.

    One could make an argument on the lines that given Russia’s history of structurally high inflation for most of the last 20 years, a prolonged tight monetary stance would be necessary to anchor new inflation expectations. My guess is that this is likely one of the arguments prevailing right now, but even as such, I think it is a weak one. The Russian central bank is now choking off a nascent recovery, leading a de facto tightening of monetary policy even as inflation falls. Absolutely irresponsible.

    Another reason why the anchoring new inflation expectations argument is weak is the fact that the Russia currency is significantly undervalued, as the newly updated REER database from Bruegel makes clear. 100 is normalised and the ruble is now in the mid-80s. Such a large undervaluation will not last long, especially with rising oil prices, so it is rather when than if the currency rebounds to equilibrium. This is important given how an appreciating ruble will act as an external factor on inflation going ahead. (falling/depreciating currency = more inflation. rising/appreciating currency = deflationary impulse). So in this light, the Russian central bank’s monetary stance is even more incomprehensible.

    /rant

    P.S. I saw that Vida apologised. Good lad(or rather, good PR management from his superiors). Whatever one thinks of the Ukraine/Russian conflict it is simply bad form to insult one’s host like that.

    Read More
    • Replies: @Mitleser
    Treason or too much obsession with stability...

    Someone should ask VVP whether he is serious about the high growth he said he wants...
    , @Anatoly Karlin
    Alexander Mercouris at The Duran has also been criticizing Nabiullina for keeping rates too high for too long this past year.
    , @Kimppis
    This is a great post.

    It seems that's what many/most Russia (economy) watchers have been saying for some time. I think even Mercouris actually pointed it out back in 2016, if not earlier.

    I mean atleast those who are not "anti-Russian"/Western mainstream, who seem to think that last year's growth was totally expected and inevitable, because those glorious sanctions are biting/Russia is a gas station/Putler's dictatorship and corruption, so Russia is obviously doomed to stagnation (at best).

    The historically and even still currently high "inflation expectations" are exactly what they're using as an excuse. The CBR also seems to argue that the currently very low inflation (by Russian standards) is not going to remain for long and that it's going to go back up to 4% any day now/in a few months/6 months, so they need to keep the rates high.

    That just seems to never happen, which Mercouris has mentioned quite a few times already. Now they are lowering rates even slower than planned earlier, due to the recent US sanctions and devaluation (although it seems that those sanctions were not even the main cause, because many emerging currencies devalued even more, for example Turkey).

    So yes, it seems that they're certainly way too conservative and pessimistic about the Russian economy and its capabilities, sharing most, if not all, Western stereotypes. Maybe all those "5th column" conspiracy theories were correct after all? (Not really.)

    ============

    Also, just recently the Economic Development Ministry lowered their forecast for 2019 to 1.4 percent, due to increase in VAT. I'm obviously not an economist, but is it really going to make that huge of a difference?

    Then the CBR comes out with its usual mantra: "The Bank of Russia warned in June that lower key rates are at risk due to a planned VAT hike to 20 percent from 18 percent. The Central Bank warned that higher taxes would translate to inflation."

    https://www.rt.com/business/431149-russia-economy-forecast-downgrade/

    However, in the same report, they still forecast that, "GDP growth will intensify and in 2020 will exceed 2%, and in 2021 will be about 3%." IIRC, they also predict an annual investment growth of around 5-6% in the early 2020s. So I guess not all is not lost, so to speak. But they seriously need to reach that 3% annual growth.

    Putin was talking about reaching that by 2019 or 2020. After that, everything else is pretty much irrelevant as far as I'm concerned, Western economic warfare failed. (It just sucks that I don't read Russian yet and the English TASS site is mediocre at best, to say nothing of Rosstat.)

    ============

    Does that mean that the ruble is undervalued by around 15%? The only thing I know is that the gap between Russia's nominal and PPP GDP is huge (like 2.5-3x?) and the "Look at Russia's nominal GDP! Italy... no, Canada... no, California/Texas... no, Spain... no, the Netherlands and Belgium combined lololololol" meme really pisses me off almost as much as all those journalists personally killed by Putler.


    What do you guys make of this article by Hellevig:

    https://russia-insider.com/en/economics/russias-real-q1-growth-was-58-so-why-did-government-report-only-13/ri23911

    He argues that Russia's "real" growth in Q1 was actually 5.8%; sort of, but not really. I can certainly believe that to an extent, Russia is probably using outdated methodology, just like China, to measure their GDP and during the last few years they have always updated their growth figures upwards later on.

    Although usually Hellevig defends PPP when measuring Russia's economy. And btw, I asked him about H2 2017's slowdown, and he also harshly criticized CBR's policies and high rates.
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  62. One has to take into account that people, generally, are highly emotional, irrational & ignorant – and unpredictable. An example: I sometimes go & read articles & comments in leading Serbian newspaper, Politika: http://www.politika.rs/ As a rule, comments section, when dealing with anything Croatian is totally bonkers, not just with regard to controversial topics including WW2 & recent history, but virtually everything going back to 1 or 2 millennia ago. This is Croatophobia turned Croatomania, basically something lunatic.

    Well, I went today to see comments on recent Croatia-England match & there were tons of comments, most of them loudly praising our team & congratulating. Just, after a few hours, the online edition of the newspaper removed the article on this game (of course, along with comments) & replaced it with some bland text on French football no one bothered to comment on.

    So, re media manipulation, food for thought…

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  63. Kimppis says:

    So some Finnish polls on Trump (and Putin) were just published. The results are overall not surprising, of course:

    https://yle.fi/uutiset/osasto/news/poll_just_4_percent_of_finns_believe_trump_has_made_world_safer/10296803

    It seems the results on Putin are only in Finnish so far. (Btw, according to the article the recent pension reform is a bad thing and somehow an example of Russia’s terrible economic problems and Putin is still personally “occupying” Crimea, to the “horror” of the “international community”.)

    - 4 percent (9% of those aged 15-24! MSM is less popular, they’re more into memes?) of Finnish people believe Trump has made the world a safer place, 2% for Putin. (What does that even mean anyway? Some Davos-speak BS. That’s not what great powers do in general, a stupid concept all around.)

    - A large majority of Finns – 88 percent – also believe that Trump has polarised the discussion on social issues and increased aggressive commenting on social media. The supporters of the Green Party were most likely to concur with this opinion. LOL

    - Trump is not even popular among the supporters of the Finns Party, whereas Putin is really hated by the pro-NATO party (although for some reason he is comparatively more popular among those in “leadership positions,” whatever that means, I’m not entirely sure)

    - The most interesting part, IMO, is this: 14% said that Trump had strengthened the US position around the globe, whereas 39% think Putin has done the same for Russia.

    However, those numbers for women are only 12% and 17%, respectively. So only 17% (vs. 47% for men) of Finnish women think that Putin has strengthened Russia since 2000… :DDD

    The world is indeed a weird place. Does this mean that your average woman doesn’t understand anything about geopolitics, or heck, economics?

    Of course it’s just basic Russophobia and Putin-derangement-syndrome to an extent, but it seems that still almost 50% of men acknowledge some extremely obvious facts, the difference between genders is massive.

    That really shows you how influential Anglo MSM still is (again), in this case against both Trump and Putin. Seriously, Mr. 4% vs. Mr. 2%… That’s just bizarre, no matter how stupid the question is. Also just another reminder that people around me know absolutely nothing about our eastern neighbour.

    I really wonder what those results would be for Obama (or Hillary). Are we Euros really so cucked, that most people think that he somehow made the world safer? The Nobel and all that as well. I don’t even want to know. But I have some anecdotal evidence that he was/is really popular among middle-aged Finnish women for some reason…

    Read More
    • Replies: @Mitleser

    Does this mean that your average woman doesn’t understand anything about geopolitics, or heck, economics?
     
    Just another sign that Women tend to be conformist and the Western mainstream is anti-Putin.
    , @Daniel Chieh

    Also just another reminder that people around me know absolutely nothing about our eastern neighbour.
     
    https://static.boredpanda.com/blog/wp-content/uploads/2016/09/finnish-nightmares-introvert-comics-karoliina-korhonen-50-57cff961a883d__700.jpg

    <3 Finland. Beautiful place.
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  64. Mitleser says:
    @Polish Perspective
    Whatever is happening at the Russian central bank, it isn't sane and it needs to stop.

    https://i.imgur.com/JCMR32F.png

    Note that the Russian recovery started in earnest in 2017, it now looks like GDP growth was underestimated for much of this period and on top of that inflation has structurally declined. In such circumstances you'd reduce real interest rates yet what you see here is the exact opposite.

    One could make an argument on the lines that given Russia's history of structurally high inflation for most of the last 20 years, a prolonged tight monetary stance would be necessary to anchor new inflation expectations. My guess is that this is likely one of the arguments prevailing right now, but even as such, I think it is a weak one. The Russian central bank is now choking off a nascent recovery, leading a de facto tightening of monetary policy even as inflation falls. Absolutely irresponsible.

    Another reason why the anchoring new inflation expectations argument is weak is the fact that the Russia currency is significantly undervalued, as the newly updated REER database from Bruegel makes clear. 100 is normalised and the ruble is now in the mid-80s. Such a large undervaluation will not last long, especially with rising oil prices, so it is rather when than if the currency rebounds to equilibrium. This is important given how an appreciating ruble will act as an external factor on inflation going ahead. (falling/depreciating currency = more inflation. rising/appreciating currency = deflationary impulse). So in this light, the Russian central bank's monetary stance is even more incomprehensible.


    /rant

    P.S. I saw that Vida apologised. Good lad(or rather, good PR management from his superiors). Whatever one thinks of the Ukraine/Russian conflict it is simply bad form to insult one's host like that.

    Treason or too much obsession with stability…

    Someone should ask VVP whether he is serious about the high growth he said he wants…

    Read More
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  65. Read More
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  66. Mitleser says:
    @Kimppis
    So some Finnish polls on Trump (and Putin) were just published. The results are overall not surprising, of course:

    https://yle.fi/uutiset/osasto/news/poll_just_4_percent_of_finns_believe_trump_has_made_world_safer/10296803

    It seems the results on Putin are only in Finnish so far. (Btw, according to the article the recent pension reform is a bad thing and somehow an example of Russia's terrible economic problems and Putin is still personally "occupying" Crimea, to the "horror" of the "international community".)

    - 4 percent (9% of those aged 15-24! MSM is less popular, they're more into memes?) of Finnish people believe Trump has made the world a safer place, 2% for Putin. (What does that even mean anyway? Some Davos-speak BS. That's not what great powers do in general, a stupid concept all around.)

    - A large majority of Finns – 88 percent – also believe that Trump has polarised the discussion on social issues and increased aggressive commenting on social media. The supporters of the Green Party were most likely to concur with this opinion. LOL

    - Trump is not even popular among the supporters of the Finns Party, whereas Putin is really hated by the pro-NATO party (although for some reason he is comparatively more popular among those in "leadership positions," whatever that means, I'm not entirely sure)

    - The most interesting part, IMO, is this: 14% said that Trump had strengthened the US position around the globe, whereas 39% think Putin has done the same for Russia.

    However, those numbers for women are only 12% and 17%, respectively. So only 17% (vs. 47% for men) of Finnish women think that Putin has strengthened Russia since 2000... :DDD
     
    The world is indeed a weird place. Does this mean that your average woman doesn't understand anything about geopolitics, or heck, economics?

    Of course it's just basic Russophobia and Putin-derangement-syndrome to an extent, but it seems that still almost 50% of men acknowledge some extremely obvious facts, the difference between genders is massive.

    That really shows you how influential Anglo MSM still is (again), in this case against both Trump and Putin. Seriously, Mr. 4% vs. Mr. 2%... That's just bizarre, no matter how stupid the question is. Also just another reminder that people around me know absolutely nothing about our eastern neighbour.

    I really wonder what those results would be for Obama (or Hillary). Are we Euros really so cucked, that most people think that he somehow made the world safer? The Nobel and all that as well. I don't even want to know. But I have some anecdotal evidence that he was/is really popular among middle-aged Finnish women for some reason...

    Does this mean that your average woman doesn’t understand anything about geopolitics, or heck, economics?

    Just another sign that Women tend to be conformist and the Western mainstream is anti-Putin.

    Read More
    • Replies: @Anatoly Karlin
    Yes, this, and women really do score lower than men on tests of general knowledge (most especially on politics, and the gap must be even wider on international politics).
    , @Bardon Kaldian
    Not only women, not only minorities, not only Americans. Idiocracy.

    https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=O3XhlOvwOf4

    https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=t4BEY1lZDyg

    https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=r9g0EYIUfX4

    https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=4yiCyjRgXw0

    https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=6CdfsCz1oKo
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  67. @Mitleser

    Does this mean that your average woman doesn’t understand anything about geopolitics, or heck, economics?
     
    Just another sign that Women tend to be conformist and the Western mainstream is anti-Putin.

    Yes, this, and women really do score lower than men on tests of general knowledge (most especially on politics, and the gap must be even wider on international politics).

    Read More
    • Replies: @Kimppis
    Interesting, for some reason I've missed that. Even that fact is not PC enough? Although on international politics it's obvious, but the gap seems to really be huge, if those results are any indication.

    So being conformists also means that they trust the MSM considerably more, even on topics like Russia? Well, dub, I guess that's literally what it means, but that 17% versus 47% difference was really quite a surprise.

    I guess women generally dislike"hard power" much more as well. They are much more likely to be impressed by nice words, rhetoric and things like "foreign aid," environment and "international cooperation". More emotional in general.
    , @Swedish Family

    Yes, this, and women really do score lower than men on tests of general knowledge (most especially on politics, and the gap must be even wider on international politics).
     
    Fun fact: Högskoleprovet, the Swedish counterpart to the SAT, used to feature a general knowledge section until it was found that boys did far better at it than girls.
    , @Yevardian
    Anybody with a sister has always noticed this. Our take virtually anyone you know well, however knowledgable on world affairs, and look at their female siblings.
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  68. @Polish Perspective
    Whatever is happening at the Russian central bank, it isn't sane and it needs to stop.

    https://i.imgur.com/JCMR32F.png

    Note that the Russian recovery started in earnest in 2017, it now looks like GDP growth was underestimated for much of this period and on top of that inflation has structurally declined. In such circumstances you'd reduce real interest rates yet what you see here is the exact opposite.

    One could make an argument on the lines that given Russia's history of structurally high inflation for most of the last 20 years, a prolonged tight monetary stance would be necessary to anchor new inflation expectations. My guess is that this is likely one of the arguments prevailing right now, but even as such, I think it is a weak one. The Russian central bank is now choking off a nascent recovery, leading a de facto tightening of monetary policy even as inflation falls. Absolutely irresponsible.

    Another reason why the anchoring new inflation expectations argument is weak is the fact that the Russia currency is significantly undervalued, as the newly updated REER database from Bruegel makes clear. 100 is normalised and the ruble is now in the mid-80s. Such a large undervaluation will not last long, especially with rising oil prices, so it is rather when than if the currency rebounds to equilibrium. This is important given how an appreciating ruble will act as an external factor on inflation going ahead. (falling/depreciating currency = more inflation. rising/appreciating currency = deflationary impulse). So in this light, the Russian central bank's monetary stance is even more incomprehensible.


    /rant

    P.S. I saw that Vida apologised. Good lad(or rather, good PR management from his superiors). Whatever one thinks of the Ukraine/Russian conflict it is simply bad form to insult one's host like that.

    Alexander Mercouris at The Duran has also been criticizing Nabiullina for keeping rates too high for too long this past year.

    Read More
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  69. @Kimppis
    So some Finnish polls on Trump (and Putin) were just published. The results are overall not surprising, of course:

    https://yle.fi/uutiset/osasto/news/poll_just_4_percent_of_finns_believe_trump_has_made_world_safer/10296803

    It seems the results on Putin are only in Finnish so far. (Btw, according to the article the recent pension reform is a bad thing and somehow an example of Russia's terrible economic problems and Putin is still personally "occupying" Crimea, to the "horror" of the "international community".)

    - 4 percent (9% of those aged 15-24! MSM is less popular, they're more into memes?) of Finnish people believe Trump has made the world a safer place, 2% for Putin. (What does that even mean anyway? Some Davos-speak BS. That's not what great powers do in general, a stupid concept all around.)

    - A large majority of Finns – 88 percent – also believe that Trump has polarised the discussion on social issues and increased aggressive commenting on social media. The supporters of the Green Party were most likely to concur with this opinion. LOL

    - Trump is not even popular among the supporters of the Finns Party, whereas Putin is really hated by the pro-NATO party (although for some reason he is comparatively more popular among those in "leadership positions," whatever that means, I'm not entirely sure)

    - The most interesting part, IMO, is this: 14% said that Trump had strengthened the US position around the globe, whereas 39% think Putin has done the same for Russia.

    However, those numbers for women are only 12% and 17%, respectively. So only 17% (vs. 47% for men) of Finnish women think that Putin has strengthened Russia since 2000... :DDD
     
    The world is indeed a weird place. Does this mean that your average woman doesn't understand anything about geopolitics, or heck, economics?

    Of course it's just basic Russophobia and Putin-derangement-syndrome to an extent, but it seems that still almost 50% of men acknowledge some extremely obvious facts, the difference between genders is massive.

    That really shows you how influential Anglo MSM still is (again), in this case against both Trump and Putin. Seriously, Mr. 4% vs. Mr. 2%... That's just bizarre, no matter how stupid the question is. Also just another reminder that people around me know absolutely nothing about our eastern neighbour.

    I really wonder what those results would be for Obama (or Hillary). Are we Euros really so cucked, that most people think that he somehow made the world safer? The Nobel and all that as well. I don't even want to know. But I have some anecdotal evidence that he was/is really popular among middle-aged Finnish women for some reason...

    Also just another reminder that people around me know absolutely nothing about our eastern neighbour.

    <3 Finland. Beautiful place.

    Read More
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  70. @Mitleser

    Does this mean that your average woman doesn’t understand anything about geopolitics, or heck, economics?
     
    Just another sign that Women tend to be conformist and the Western mainstream is anti-Putin.

    Not only women, not only minorities, not only Americans. Idiocracy.

    Read More
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  71. Kimppis says:
    @Anatoly Karlin
    Yes, this, and women really do score lower than men on tests of general knowledge (most especially on politics, and the gap must be even wider on international politics).

    Interesting, for some reason I’ve missed that. Even that fact is not PC enough? Although on international politics it’s obvious, but the gap seems to really be huge, if those results are any indication.

    So being conformists also means that they trust the MSM considerably more, even on topics like Russia? Well, dub, I guess that’s literally what it means, but that 17% versus 47% difference was really quite a surprise.

    I guess women generally dislike”hard power” much more as well. They are much more likely to be impressed by nice words, rhetoric and things like “foreign aid,” environment and “international cooperation”. More emotional in general.

    Read More
    • Replies: @Thorfinnsson
    Watch what women do, not what they say.

    Women spread their legs for "hard power".

    http://3.bp.blogspot.com/-nV5cy6mWXXs/UDVewbxm8YI/AAAAAAAAUhM/MSDJ9VZ6J0U/s1600/00000eb0_medium.jpeg

    I guarantee you these ladies didn't spread their legs for Fritz on account of "foreign aid" and "international cooperation".
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  72. @Kimppis
    Interesting, for some reason I've missed that. Even that fact is not PC enough? Although on international politics it's obvious, but the gap seems to really be huge, if those results are any indication.

    So being conformists also means that they trust the MSM considerably more, even on topics like Russia? Well, dub, I guess that's literally what it means, but that 17% versus 47% difference was really quite a surprise.

    I guess women generally dislike"hard power" much more as well. They are much more likely to be impressed by nice words, rhetoric and things like "foreign aid," environment and "international cooperation". More emotional in general.

    Watch what women do, not what they say.

    Women spread their legs for “hard power”.

    I guarantee you these ladies didn’t spread their legs for Fritz on account of “foreign aid” and “international cooperation”.

    Read More
    • Replies: @Anatoly Karlin
    Sieg Heil!

    http://3.bp.blogspot.com/_bdVR-JIDi2g/SGBBBKS0DoI/AAAAAAAAG-4/bpMB4JkCxwc/s400/fascist.jpeg
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  73. @DFH
    What is wrong with little nations?

    What is wrong with little nations?

    Nothing much — if they come to be organically. But I do have a problem with balkanization, especially when the petty little quarrels turn into war and genocide. There is also something offensive, I think, about a possibly great country of some 20 million splintering into half a dozen Lilliputian states with no chance of ever sustaining truly lively cultures.

    Read More
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  74. @Anatoly Karlin
    Yes, this, and women really do score lower than men on tests of general knowledge (most especially on politics, and the gap must be even wider on international politics).

    Yes, this, and women really do score lower than men on tests of general knowledge (most especially on politics, and the gap must be even wider on international politics).

    Fun fact: Högskoleprovet, the Swedish counterpart to the SAT, used to feature a general knowledge section until it was found that boys did far better at it than girls.

    Read More
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  75. Marcus says:

    Do any leftoids have a problem with France mining its former African colonies for futbol talent like a neocolonial power or does “diversity” worship trump that?

    Read More
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  76. Kimppis says:
    @Polish Perspective
    Whatever is happening at the Russian central bank, it isn't sane and it needs to stop.

    https://i.imgur.com/JCMR32F.png

    Note that the Russian recovery started in earnest in 2017, it now looks like GDP growth was underestimated for much of this period and on top of that inflation has structurally declined. In such circumstances you'd reduce real interest rates yet what you see here is the exact opposite.

    One could make an argument on the lines that given Russia's history of structurally high inflation for most of the last 20 years, a prolonged tight monetary stance would be necessary to anchor new inflation expectations. My guess is that this is likely one of the arguments prevailing right now, but even as such, I think it is a weak one. The Russian central bank is now choking off a nascent recovery, leading a de facto tightening of monetary policy even as inflation falls. Absolutely irresponsible.

    Another reason why the anchoring new inflation expectations argument is weak is the fact that the Russia currency is significantly undervalued, as the newly updated REER database from Bruegel makes clear. 100 is normalised and the ruble is now in the mid-80s. Such a large undervaluation will not last long, especially with rising oil prices, so it is rather when than if the currency rebounds to equilibrium. This is important given how an appreciating ruble will act as an external factor on inflation going ahead. (falling/depreciating currency = more inflation. rising/appreciating currency = deflationary impulse). So in this light, the Russian central bank's monetary stance is even more incomprehensible.


    /rant

    P.S. I saw that Vida apologised. Good lad(or rather, good PR management from his superiors). Whatever one thinks of the Ukraine/Russian conflict it is simply bad form to insult one's host like that.

    This is a great post.

    It seems that’s what many/most Russia (economy) watchers have been saying for some time. I think even Mercouris actually pointed it out back in 2016, if not earlier.

    I mean atleast those who are not “anti-Russian”/Western mainstream, who seem to think that last year’s growth was totally expected and inevitable, because those glorious sanctions are biting/Russia is a gas station/Putler’s dictatorship and corruption, so Russia is obviously doomed to stagnation (at best).

    The historically and even still currently high “inflation expectations” are exactly what they’re using as an excuse. The CBR also seems to argue that the currently very low inflation (by Russian standards) is not going to remain for long and that it’s going to go back up to 4% any day now/in a few months/6 months, so they need to keep the rates high.

    That just seems to never happen, which Mercouris has mentioned quite a few times already. Now they are lowering rates even slower than planned earlier, due to the recent US sanctions and devaluation (although it seems that those sanctions were not even the main cause, because many emerging currencies devalued even more, for example Turkey).

    So yes, it seems that they’re certainly way too conservative and pessimistic about the Russian economy and its capabilities, sharing most, if not all, Western stereotypes. Maybe all those “5th column” conspiracy theories were correct after all? (Not really.)

    ============

    Also, just recently the Economic Development Ministry lowered their forecast for 2019 to 1.4 percent, due to increase in VAT. I’m obviously not an economist, but is it really going to make that huge of a difference?

    Then the CBR comes out with its usual mantra: “The Bank of Russia warned in June that lower key rates are at risk due to a planned VAT hike to 20 percent from 18 percent. The Central Bank warned that higher taxes would translate to inflation.”

    https://www.rt.com/business/431149-russia-economy-forecast-downgrade/

    However, in the same report, they still forecast that, “GDP growth will intensify and in 2020 will exceed 2%, and in 2021 will be about 3%.” IIRC, they also predict an annual investment growth of around 5-6% in the early 2020s. So I guess not all is not lost, so to speak. But they seriously need to reach that 3% annual growth.

    Putin was talking about reaching that by 2019 or 2020. After that, everything else is pretty much irrelevant as far as I’m concerned, Western economic warfare failed. (It just sucks that I don’t read Russian yet and the English TASS site is mediocre at best, to say nothing of Rosstat.)

    ============

    Does that mean that the ruble is undervalued by around 15%? The only thing I know is that the gap between Russia’s nominal and PPP GDP is huge (like 2.5-3x?) and the “Look at Russia’s nominal GDP! Italy… no, Canada… no, California/Texas… no, Spain… no, the Netherlands and Belgium combined lololololol” meme really pisses me off almost as much as all those journalists personally killed by Putler.

    What do you guys make of this article by Hellevig:

    https://russia-insider.com/en/economics/russias-real-q1-growth-was-58-so-why-did-government-report-only-13/ri23911

    He argues that Russia’s “real” growth in Q1 was actually 5.8%; sort of, but not really. I can certainly believe that to an extent, Russia is probably using outdated methodology, just like China, to measure their GDP and during the last few years they have always updated their growth figures upwards later on.

    Although usually Hellevig defends PPP when measuring Russia’s economy. And btw, I asked him about H2 2017′s slowdown, and he also harshly criticized CBR’s policies and high rates.

    Read More
    • Replies: @Dmitry
    Economic growth in the Q1 of 2018, was in 1.3%.

    Watching the economy is not such an exciting "sport" (less than for other countries) though, because it is reacting to price of oil as the main determinant (although some other commodities are also relevant).

    These higher oil prices (like this year) are a necessary condition for a kind of slow and steady growth at the moment. Because the population numbers are stable (not growing), even the slow growth figures, is translating into increase in GDP per capita, so the government will not be very unhappy so long as GDP is growing.

    Central Bank was responsibly managing finances in good form, even when oil prices collapse, and correspondingly currency devalues, and there are sanctions - which was the story of the recent few years.

    The thing which would create excitement in this topic of future economy, and maybe some job opportunities for kind of people on this forum - if there is anything coming soon like a kind of "hi-tech boom", or "startup boom".

    From a government point of view (which has been trying to be active in this area) - when planted seeds, like Skolkovo and Rusnano, will start to produce a harvest.

    -

    In the 2030s, I predict oil demand will peak and begin to fall. I predict there will be a lot more investment into trying to create "hi tech" boom soon, when the government start to understand this outlook for the 2030s decade. Many preconditions are here (for example - more than enough skilled labour and a lot of success in the narrow area of military technologies), but the current funding in hi tech and startup scene is very low by international comparisons.

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  77. Dmitry says:
    @Kimppis
    This is a great post.

    It seems that's what many/most Russia (economy) watchers have been saying for some time. I think even Mercouris actually pointed it out back in 2016, if not earlier.

    I mean atleast those who are not "anti-Russian"/Western mainstream, who seem to think that last year's growth was totally expected and inevitable, because those glorious sanctions are biting/Russia is a gas station/Putler's dictatorship and corruption, so Russia is obviously doomed to stagnation (at best).

    The historically and even still currently high "inflation expectations" are exactly what they're using as an excuse. The CBR also seems to argue that the currently very low inflation (by Russian standards) is not going to remain for long and that it's going to go back up to 4% any day now/in a few months/6 months, so they need to keep the rates high.

    That just seems to never happen, which Mercouris has mentioned quite a few times already. Now they are lowering rates even slower than planned earlier, due to the recent US sanctions and devaluation (although it seems that those sanctions were not even the main cause, because many emerging currencies devalued even more, for example Turkey).

    So yes, it seems that they're certainly way too conservative and pessimistic about the Russian economy and its capabilities, sharing most, if not all, Western stereotypes. Maybe all those "5th column" conspiracy theories were correct after all? (Not really.)

    ============

    Also, just recently the Economic Development Ministry lowered their forecast for 2019 to 1.4 percent, due to increase in VAT. I'm obviously not an economist, but is it really going to make that huge of a difference?

    Then the CBR comes out with its usual mantra: "The Bank of Russia warned in June that lower key rates are at risk due to a planned VAT hike to 20 percent from 18 percent. The Central Bank warned that higher taxes would translate to inflation."

    https://www.rt.com/business/431149-russia-economy-forecast-downgrade/

    However, in the same report, they still forecast that, "GDP growth will intensify and in 2020 will exceed 2%, and in 2021 will be about 3%." IIRC, they also predict an annual investment growth of around 5-6% in the early 2020s. So I guess not all is not lost, so to speak. But they seriously need to reach that 3% annual growth.

    Putin was talking about reaching that by 2019 or 2020. After that, everything else is pretty much irrelevant as far as I'm concerned, Western economic warfare failed. (It just sucks that I don't read Russian yet and the English TASS site is mediocre at best, to say nothing of Rosstat.)

    ============

    Does that mean that the ruble is undervalued by around 15%? The only thing I know is that the gap between Russia's nominal and PPP GDP is huge (like 2.5-3x?) and the "Look at Russia's nominal GDP! Italy... no, Canada... no, California/Texas... no, Spain... no, the Netherlands and Belgium combined lololololol" meme really pisses me off almost as much as all those journalists personally killed by Putler.


    What do you guys make of this article by Hellevig:

    https://russia-insider.com/en/economics/russias-real-q1-growth-was-58-so-why-did-government-report-only-13/ri23911

    He argues that Russia's "real" growth in Q1 was actually 5.8%; sort of, but not really. I can certainly believe that to an extent, Russia is probably using outdated methodology, just like China, to measure their GDP and during the last few years they have always updated their growth figures upwards later on.

    Although usually Hellevig defends PPP when measuring Russia's economy. And btw, I asked him about H2 2017's slowdown, and he also harshly criticized CBR's policies and high rates.

    Economic growth in the Q1 of 2018, was in 1.3%.

    Watching the economy is not such an exciting “sport” (less than for other countries) though, because it is reacting to price of oil as the main determinant (although some other commodities are also relevant).

    These higher oil prices (like this year) are a necessary condition for a kind of slow and steady growth at the moment. Because the population numbers are stable (not growing), even the slow growth figures, is translating into increase in GDP per capita, so the government will not be very unhappy so long as GDP is growing.

    Central Bank was responsibly managing finances in good form, even when oil prices collapse, and correspondingly currency devalues, and there are sanctions – which was the story of the recent few years.

    The thing which would create excitement in this topic of future economy, and maybe some job opportunities for kind of people on this forum – if there is anything coming soon like a kind of “hi-tech boom”, or “startup boom”.

    From a government point of view (which has been trying to be active in this area) – when planted seeds, like Skolkovo and Rusnano, will start to produce a harvest.

    -

    In the 2030s, I predict oil demand will peak and begin to fall. I predict there will be a lot more investment into trying to create “hi tech” boom soon, when the government start to understand this outlook for the 2030s decade. Many preconditions are here (for example – more than enough skilled labour and a lot of success in the narrow area of military technologies), but the current funding in hi tech and startup scene is very low by international comparisons.

    Read More
    • Replies: @Kimppis
    Yes, that's the official figure. I think the Economic Development Ministry forecasts a growth of 2.1% for the whole year, though.

    Regarding oil prices, is that actually true? I don't think the economy was that oil dependent at any point and that is certainly not the case now. I think oil & gas were like 10% of Russia's GDP back in 2015-16, now that share is even lower.

    Also, back in 2013 oil prices were still high, but Russia's growth was already mediocre and I think even back then it was because they started focusing on inflation... then Ukraine and a total oil price collapse happened.

    Not to mention that with the devalued ruble Russia's current oil revenue is already very high. But yeah, I don't that dependency should be exaggerated. The federal budget is also based on an oil price $40 per barrel, so most of that extra money is actually going to reserves. So the remaining dependency decreases further, quite rapidly actually, I think.
    , @Mitleser

    The thing which would create excitement in this topic of future economy, and maybe some job opportunities for kind of people on this forum – if there is anything coming soon like a kind of “hi-tech boom”, or “startup boom”.

    From a government point of view (which has been trying to be active in this area) – when planted seeds, like Skolkovo and Rusnano, will start to produce a harvest.
     
    Don't you need capital for that and doesn't the higher-than-necessary interest rate make it harder to get said capital?

    That is why I am not willing to give the CBR the benefit of the doubt.
    They may know how to deal with economic crisis, but not how to create more growth.
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  78. Kimppis says:
    @Dmitry
    Economic growth in the Q1 of 2018, was in 1.3%.

    Watching the economy is not such an exciting "sport" (less than for other countries) though, because it is reacting to price of oil as the main determinant (although some other commodities are also relevant).

    These higher oil prices (like this year) are a necessary condition for a kind of slow and steady growth at the moment. Because the population numbers are stable (not growing), even the slow growth figures, is translating into increase in GDP per capita, so the government will not be very unhappy so long as GDP is growing.

    Central Bank was responsibly managing finances in good form, even when oil prices collapse, and correspondingly currency devalues, and there are sanctions - which was the story of the recent few years.

    The thing which would create excitement in this topic of future economy, and maybe some job opportunities for kind of people on this forum - if there is anything coming soon like a kind of "hi-tech boom", or "startup boom".

    From a government point of view (which has been trying to be active in this area) - when planted seeds, like Skolkovo and Rusnano, will start to produce a harvest.

    -

    In the 2030s, I predict oil demand will peak and begin to fall. I predict there will be a lot more investment into trying to create "hi tech" boom soon, when the government start to understand this outlook for the 2030s decade. Many preconditions are here (for example - more than enough skilled labour and a lot of success in the narrow area of military technologies), but the current funding in hi tech and startup scene is very low by international comparisons.

    Yes, that’s the official figure. I think the Economic Development Ministry forecasts a growth of 2.1% for the whole year, though.

    Regarding oil prices, is that actually true? I don’t think the economy was that oil dependent at any point and that is certainly not the case now. I think oil & gas were like 10% of Russia’s GDP back in 2015-16, now that share is even lower.

    Also, back in 2013 oil prices were still high, but Russia’s growth was already mediocre and I think even back then it was because they started focusing on inflation… then Ukraine and a total oil price collapse happened.

    Not to mention that with the devalued ruble Russia’s current oil revenue is already very high. But yeah, I don’t that dependency should be exaggerated. The federal budget is also based on an oil price $40 per barrel, so most of that extra money is actually going to reserves. So the remaining dependency decreases further, quite rapidly actually, I think.

    Read More
    • Replies: @Dmitry
    Oil exports may be smaller component of the total GDP - but the federal budget (which also determines much of future investments) and the GDP growth rate (which is talking what is happening at the margins of the economy) is extremely dependent on price of oil (and some various other commodities - oil the main one, and note gas prices are also linked to oil).

    Hydrocarbon export contributes somewhere around half of federal budget, and large majority of the total export income of the economy.

    What you say about 2013, is true, indeed. What was happening in 2013 - it perhaps indicates that economy does not seem to react to the higher prices by going into space as it once did - unlike 11-12 years ago (when GDP growth was growing a 8.5% a year).

    Outlook for oil prices this year is very positive, so the government and certain areas will be flooded with vast amounts of money. At the same time, they predict GDP growth for 2018 at 1,9%.

    Because of stable population number, this growth (around 2%) will still be quite good in per capita terms.

    One thing to note, is there is some time lag in how the economic situation is perceived by the public. This year, there seems unusual public anger and sense of "declining economy". However, this mostly - people starting to feel the cuts in budgets of the last couple of years. The perception of the economic improvement which actually started in 2017, has not yet been perceived by the public.

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  79. Mitleser says:
    @Dmitry
    Economic growth in the Q1 of 2018, was in 1.3%.

    Watching the economy is not such an exciting "sport" (less than for other countries) though, because it is reacting to price of oil as the main determinant (although some other commodities are also relevant).

    These higher oil prices (like this year) are a necessary condition for a kind of slow and steady growth at the moment. Because the population numbers are stable (not growing), even the slow growth figures, is translating into increase in GDP per capita, so the government will not be very unhappy so long as GDP is growing.

    Central Bank was responsibly managing finances in good form, even when oil prices collapse, and correspondingly currency devalues, and there are sanctions - which was the story of the recent few years.

    The thing which would create excitement in this topic of future economy, and maybe some job opportunities for kind of people on this forum - if there is anything coming soon like a kind of "hi-tech boom", or "startup boom".

    From a government point of view (which has been trying to be active in this area) - when planted seeds, like Skolkovo and Rusnano, will start to produce a harvest.

    -

    In the 2030s, I predict oil demand will peak and begin to fall. I predict there will be a lot more investment into trying to create "hi tech" boom soon, when the government start to understand this outlook for the 2030s decade. Many preconditions are here (for example - more than enough skilled labour and a lot of success in the narrow area of military technologies), but the current funding in hi tech and startup scene is very low by international comparisons.

    The thing which would create excitement in this topic of future economy, and maybe some job opportunities for kind of people on this forum – if there is anything coming soon like a kind of “hi-tech boom”, or “startup boom”.

    From a government point of view (which has been trying to be active in this area) – when planted seeds, like Skolkovo and Rusnano, will start to produce a harvest.

    Don’t you need capital for that and doesn’t the higher-than-necessary interest rate make it harder to get said capital?

    That is why I am not willing to give the CBR the benefit of the doubt.
    They may know how to deal with economic crisis, but not how to create more growth.

    Read More
    • Replies: @Dmitry
    Government is flooded periodically with vast amounts of money (when oil prices go up, as they are doing this year).

    Some of this can be easily directed into hi tech startups (there are many examples of other countries doing this).

    I commented a few months ago on Karlin blog, with the data on the venture capital funding in the whole of Russia - it was something like $400 million (can't remember exact number) in a year like 2015 (can't remember exact year for which there was data).

    These small numbers from private venture capital scene ($400 million per year), can be compared to the fact that government receives around an additional $14 billion in just its oil revenue, per year for every $10 increase in global price of oil.

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  80. Dmitry says:
    @Kimppis
    Yes, that's the official figure. I think the Economic Development Ministry forecasts a growth of 2.1% for the whole year, though.

    Regarding oil prices, is that actually true? I don't think the economy was that oil dependent at any point and that is certainly not the case now. I think oil & gas were like 10% of Russia's GDP back in 2015-16, now that share is even lower.

    Also, back in 2013 oil prices were still high, but Russia's growth was already mediocre and I think even back then it was because they started focusing on inflation... then Ukraine and a total oil price collapse happened.

    Not to mention that with the devalued ruble Russia's current oil revenue is already very high. But yeah, I don't that dependency should be exaggerated. The federal budget is also based on an oil price $40 per barrel, so most of that extra money is actually going to reserves. So the remaining dependency decreases further, quite rapidly actually, I think.

    Oil exports may be smaller component of the total GDP – but the federal budget (which also determines much of future investments) and the GDP growth rate (which is talking what is happening at the margins of the economy) is extremely dependent on price of oil (and some various other commodities – oil the main one, and note gas prices are also linked to oil).

    Hydrocarbon export contributes somewhere around half of federal budget, and large majority of the total export income of the economy.

    What you say about 2013, is true, indeed. What was happening in 2013 – it perhaps indicates that economy does not seem to react to the higher prices by going into space as it once did – unlike 11-12 years ago (when GDP growth was growing a 8.5% a year).

    Outlook for oil prices this year is very positive, so the government and certain areas will be flooded with vast amounts of money. At the same time, they predict GDP growth for 2018 at 1,9%.

    Because of stable population number, this growth (around 2%) will still be quite good in per capita terms.

    One thing to note, is there is some time lag in how the economic situation is perceived by the public. This year, there seems unusual public anger and sense of “declining economy”. However, this mostly – people starting to feel the cuts in budgets of the last couple of years. The perception of the economic improvement which actually started in 2017, has not yet been perceived by the public.

    Read More
    • Replies: @Mitleser
    Not lowering the interest rate does not help to change this negative perception of the economy.
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  81. Dmitry says:
    @Mitleser

    The thing which would create excitement in this topic of future economy, and maybe some job opportunities for kind of people on this forum – if there is anything coming soon like a kind of “hi-tech boom”, or “startup boom”.

    From a government point of view (which has been trying to be active in this area) – when planted seeds, like Skolkovo and Rusnano, will start to produce a harvest.
     
    Don't you need capital for that and doesn't the higher-than-necessary interest rate make it harder to get said capital?

    That is why I am not willing to give the CBR the benefit of the doubt.
    They may know how to deal with economic crisis, but not how to create more growth.

    Government is flooded periodically with vast amounts of money (when oil prices go up, as they are doing this year).

    Some of this can be easily directed into hi tech startups (there are many examples of other countries doing this).

    I commented a few months ago on Karlin blog, with the data on the venture capital funding in the whole of Russia – it was something like $400 million (can’t remember exact number) in a year like 2015 (can’t remember exact year for which there was data).

    These small numbers from private venture capital scene ($400 million per year), can be compared to the fact that government receives around an additional $14 billion in just its oil revenue, per year for every $10 increase in global price of oil.

    Read More
    • Replies: @Anatoly Karlin
    Post on this: https://www.unz.com/akarlin/russias-technological-backwardness/

    VC funding picture is truly miserable:

    https://www.unzcloud.com/wp-content/uploads/2017/10/europe-vc-funding-2016.png
    , @Kimppis
    LOL @ both Thorfinnsson and Daniel Chieh

    ============

    Dmitry, this report is a good source and I think Anatoly has been using it as well:

    https://www.awaragroup.com/blog/putin-midterm-interim-results/

    - Oil & gas does not count for over 50% of state revenues as has been claimed, but only 27.4% [in 2012]. Top revenue source is instead payroll taxes [when you include the so-called "consolidated budget]
     
    The main reason for Russia's very rapid growth in the 2000s was actually the particularly severe collapse in the 90s + all the reasons why most other Eastern European countries grew rapidly as well. Of course the high oil prices helped, but it really has been exaggerated.

    In any case and as I already said, the federal budget is based on $40 oil, so that dependency is decreasing steadily. And despite being conservative, the Economic Development Ministry forecasts high GDP and investment growth rates by the early 20s, so overall things don't look bad.
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  82. Mitleser says:
    @Dmitry
    Oil exports may be smaller component of the total GDP - but the federal budget (which also determines much of future investments) and the GDP growth rate (which is talking what is happening at the margins of the economy) is extremely dependent on price of oil (and some various other commodities - oil the main one, and note gas prices are also linked to oil).

    Hydrocarbon export contributes somewhere around half of federal budget, and large majority of the total export income of the economy.

    What you say about 2013, is true, indeed. What was happening in 2013 - it perhaps indicates that economy does not seem to react to the higher prices by going into space as it once did - unlike 11-12 years ago (when GDP growth was growing a 8.5% a year).

    Outlook for oil prices this year is very positive, so the government and certain areas will be flooded with vast amounts of money. At the same time, they predict GDP growth for 2018 at 1,9%.

    Because of stable population number, this growth (around 2%) will still be quite good in per capita terms.

    One thing to note, is there is some time lag in how the economic situation is perceived by the public. This year, there seems unusual public anger and sense of "declining economy". However, this mostly - people starting to feel the cuts in budgets of the last couple of years. The perception of the economic improvement which actually started in 2017, has not yet been perceived by the public.

    Not lowering the interest rate does not help to change this negative perception of the economy.

    Read More
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  83. @Thorfinnsson
    Watch what women do, not what they say.

    Women spread their legs for "hard power".

    http://3.bp.blogspot.com/-nV5cy6mWXXs/UDVewbxm8YI/AAAAAAAAUhM/MSDJ9VZ6J0U/s1600/00000eb0_medium.jpeg

    I guarantee you these ladies didn't spread their legs for Fritz on account of "foreign aid" and "international cooperation".

    Sieg Heil!

    Read More
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  84. @Dmitry
    Government is flooded periodically with vast amounts of money (when oil prices go up, as they are doing this year).

    Some of this can be easily directed into hi tech startups (there are many examples of other countries doing this).

    I commented a few months ago on Karlin blog, with the data on the venture capital funding in the whole of Russia - it was something like $400 million (can't remember exact number) in a year like 2015 (can't remember exact year for which there was data).

    These small numbers from private venture capital scene ($400 million per year), can be compared to the fact that government receives around an additional $14 billion in just its oil revenue, per year for every $10 increase in global price of oil.

    Post on this: https://www.unz.com/akarlin/russias-technological-backwardness/

    VC funding picture is truly miserable:

    Read More
    • Replies: @Kimppis
    What is up with Turkey lol?

    Those differences in per capita spending are massive, all over the place. Russia is close to Italy, which is a (very) developed country... Portugal is not far either and even Germany is really mediocre, so atleast that metric is really not that bad?

    , @Dmitry
    Obviously not all data is available (only public data is used for estimations).

    But some of the figures in that graph look like underestimations.

    Ireland was actually €888 in 2016.

    https://www.independent.ie/business/technology/venture-capital-boom-in-ireland-as-888m-funding-recorded-35453375.html

    Israel was $4.8 billion.

    https://www.reuters.com/article/us-israel-tech-funding-idUSKBN14U13O

    UK was €4 billion.

    https://www.barclayscorporate.com/content/dam/corppublic/corporate/Documents/Industry-expertise/venture-capital-in-the-uk.pdf

    Sweden was €1,7 for the first 10 months of 2016. (So there actual 12 month data would be higher)

    https://i.imgur.com/iHLMp6Y.jpg

    https://nordic.businessinsider.com/the-nordics-record-year-in-startup-funding-explained-in-4-infographics-2016-12/


    Sweden increased to €1,7 billion in first 10 months 2016, compared to €1 billion in first 10 months 2015.
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  85. Kimppis says:
    @Dmitry
    Government is flooded periodically with vast amounts of money (when oil prices go up, as they are doing this year).

    Some of this can be easily directed into hi tech startups (there are many examples of other countries doing this).

    I commented a few months ago on Karlin blog, with the data on the venture capital funding in the whole of Russia - it was something like $400 million (can't remember exact number) in a year like 2015 (can't remember exact year for which there was data).

    These small numbers from private venture capital scene ($400 million per year), can be compared to the fact that government receives around an additional $14 billion in just its oil revenue, per year for every $10 increase in global price of oil.

    LOL @ both Thorfinnsson and Daniel Chieh

    ============

    Dmitry, this report is a good source and I think Anatoly has been using it as well:

    https://www.awaragroup.com/blog/putin-midterm-interim-results/

    - Oil & gas does not count for over 50% of state revenues as has been claimed, but only 27.4% [in 2012]. Top revenue source is instead payroll taxes [when you include the so-called "consolidated budget]

    The main reason for Russia’s very rapid growth in the 2000s was actually the particularly severe collapse in the 90s + all the reasons why most other Eastern European countries grew rapidly as well. Of course the high oil prices helped, but it really has been exaggerated.

    In any case and as I already said, the federal budget is based on $40 oil, so that dependency is decreasing steadily. And despite being conservative, the Economic Development Ministry forecasts high GDP and investment growth rates by the early 20s, so overall things don’t look bad.

    Read More
    • Replies: @Dmitry
    In recent years, it's in years like 2015, where it's below half the budget.

    https://s0.rbk.ru/v6_top_pics/resized/945xH/media/img/5/52/754588491521525.jpeg

    -

    If no-one else will add the theme song for the discussion :)

    https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=EucLgHzuZaw
    , @Ali Choudhury
    Agreed, floating the rouble and letting it fall also really helped with the deficit.

    Russia is still under-performing relative to potential notwithstanding the sanctions, though. The high interest rates now are a legacy of the 15% inflation that was running in 2015. The deleveraging of foreign debt has been accompanied by about 500 trade protection measures that were brought in between 2008 and 2015, which is second only to India and only benefits crony capitalists. Capital investment as a proportion of GDP has been running in the low 20s for the past decade which is among the lowest rates for large, emerging economies. Needs to be between 25 to 35% for serious growth acceleration. Apart from a few high-tech companies, most of the non-oil economy isn't making much headway. Poland for example currently has 860 odd public listed companies, Russia has about 230.
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  86. Kimppis says:
    @Anatoly Karlin
    Post on this: https://www.unz.com/akarlin/russias-technological-backwardness/

    VC funding picture is truly miserable:

    https://www.unzcloud.com/wp-content/uploads/2017/10/europe-vc-funding-2016.png

    What is up with Turkey lol?

    Those differences in per capita spending are massive, all over the place. Russia is close to Italy, which is a (very) developed country… Portugal is not far either and even Germany is really mediocre, so atleast that metric is really not that bad?

    Read More
    • Replies: @Dmitry
    This is showing low levels of venture capital funding of technology startups.

    Currently, some places have much larger startup scenes than other places.

    It's an area where the government can add its own funding for startups (as is quite common).

    Obviously, a lot of money would be wasted - the nature of venture capital is very high risk investment, but also with possible very high rewards.

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  87. Junker absolutely trashed as usual. The man is an absolute wreck.

    Trump is also redoing the paintjob on Air Force One (current design stems from the very weak President Kennedy): https://nypost.com/2018/07/12/trump-wants-a-patriotic-makeover-for-air-force-one/

    Read More
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  88. Mitleser says:

    Moscow must get ready for more Arabs.

    An indication of the growing Russian influence on the Syrian educational system is seen in the 2014–15 curriculum, when the Russian language was introduced to Syrian schools as a second foreign language from the seventh grade on, offering students a choice between French or Russian. Statistics show that over ten thousand students in more than one hundred schools have chosen to study Russian, and the numbers keep increasing. It is safe to say that there is more demand for the Russian language in Syria right now than ever; students who choose Russian can continue studying at Damascus University and in Russia. The textbooks are a result of close cooperation between the universities of Moscow and Damascus where Russian native speakers also teach.37

    One particular topic of interest is that Syrian authoritarian pan-Arabism and secularism bring it culturally closer to Russia than to any other major actor. Iran and its proxies are not viewed positively in the curriculum. This may point to another kind of dissimulation (taqiya)—so often used by minorities in the Middle East. Given the ideological differences between Iran and Syria, alliances of convenience are possible but if the curriculum is to be taken on its face, there can never be a true friendship with this Iranian regime. Russia, however, is a different case altogether. The Syrian relationship with Russia—demonstrated eagerly in the textbooks—comprises what is akin to a mutual admiration society.

    http://www.impact-se.org/wp-content/uploads/Syrian-National-Identity_IMPACT-se_July-2018-.pdf

    Read More
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  89. Dmitry says:
    @Kimppis
    LOL @ both Thorfinnsson and Daniel Chieh

    ============

    Dmitry, this report is a good source and I think Anatoly has been using it as well:

    https://www.awaragroup.com/blog/putin-midterm-interim-results/

    - Oil & gas does not count for over 50% of state revenues as has been claimed, but only 27.4% [in 2012]. Top revenue source is instead payroll taxes [when you include the so-called "consolidated budget]
     
    The main reason for Russia's very rapid growth in the 2000s was actually the particularly severe collapse in the 90s + all the reasons why most other Eastern European countries grew rapidly as well. Of course the high oil prices helped, but it really has been exaggerated.

    In any case and as I already said, the federal budget is based on $40 oil, so that dependency is decreasing steadily. And despite being conservative, the Economic Development Ministry forecasts high GDP and investment growth rates by the early 20s, so overall things don't look bad.

    In recent years, it’s in years like 2015, where it’s below half the budget.

    -

    If no-one else will add the theme song for the discussion :)

    Read More
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  90. Gerard2 says:
    @Mikhail
    On the other hand, Uruguay decisively beat Russia 3-0.

    On the other hand, Uruguay decisively beat Russia 3-0.

    Golovin was rested for the game

    It was a dead game,

    Uruguay who were shockingly bad and negative in the first two games completely changed their set-up and tactics for the match.

    Russia would have had no incentive to play well because they wouldn’t have had a clue who they would face in the next round because Spain and Portugal drew their match together and both won their second games by 1 goal

    The only incentive Russia would have had, would be to finish second , because that would guarantee a match in Moscow, where the team are based and where the majority of the squad play their football

    This was a colossal performance by the Russian team, so close against Croatia and they would have easily trampled on England to get to the final

    Read More
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  91. Dmitry says:
    @Anatoly Karlin
    Post on this: https://www.unz.com/akarlin/russias-technological-backwardness/

    VC funding picture is truly miserable:

    https://www.unzcloud.com/wp-content/uploads/2017/10/europe-vc-funding-2016.png

    Obviously not all data is available (only public data is used for estimations).

    But some of the figures in that graph look like underestimations.

    Ireland was actually €888 in 2016.

    https://www.independent.ie/business/technology/venture-capital-boom-in-ireland-as-888m-funding-recorded-35453375.html

    Israel was $4.8 billion.

    https://www.reuters.com/article/us-israel-tech-funding-idUSKBN14U13O

    UK was €4 billion.

    https://www.barclayscorporate.com/content/dam/corppublic/corporate/Documents/Industry-expertise/venture-capital-in-the-uk.pdf

    Sweden was €1,7 for the first 10 months of 2016. (So there actual 12 month data would be higher)

    https://nordic.businessinsider.com/the-nordics-record-year-in-startup-funding-explained-in-4-infographics-2016-12/

    Sweden increased to €1,7 billion in first 10 months 2016, compared to €1 billion in first 10 months 2015.

    Read More
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  92. Dmitry says:
    @Kimppis
    What is up with Turkey lol?

    Those differences in per capita spending are massive, all over the place. Russia is close to Italy, which is a (very) developed country... Portugal is not far either and even Germany is really mediocre, so atleast that metric is really not that bad?

    This is showing low levels of venture capital funding of technology startups.

    Currently, some places have much larger startup scenes than other places.

    It’s an area where the government can add its own funding for startups (as is quite common).

    Obviously, a lot of money would be wasted – the nature of venture capital is very high risk investment, but also with possible very high rewards.

    Read More
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  93. @Mikhail
    Toronto Metros Croatia from the original NASL:

    https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Toronto_Croatia

    Some games in that league could get divisively ethnic. Recall an exhibition match between the NY Cosmos and Torpedo Moscow in the early 1970s, played within a then ethnic Ukrainian (mostly former Habsburg western Ukrainian) enclave on Long Island.

    During the game, one of the fans shouted some expletives in Russian (perhaps Ukrainian, but understandable in Russian) to a Torpedo player, who answered back as he was dribbling the ball. The crowd in the stands laughed, with some (perhaps) appreciation for that Torpedo player.

    A few years later, the Cosmos had a Serb player Vitomir "Vito" Dimitrijević, who would get whistled at every time he touched the ball during a Toronto Metros Croatia home match.

    Thanks for the info. I didn’t know about ethnic sports teams. It’s all school teams around, plus boat sport clubs on the lake. No single diaspora lives here in enough concentration, like Russians around Yummy Market – which area has its own football team, FC Vorkuta:)

    Read More
    • Replies: @Mikhail
    Hmm. Been of the impression that the Toronto area is fairly well represented with a Ukrainian contingent, as is true of Winnipeg and Edmonton.
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  94. Yevardian says:
    @Anatoly Karlin
    Yes, this, and women really do score lower than men on tests of general knowledge (most especially on politics, and the gap must be even wider on international politics).

    Anybody with a sister has always noticed this. Our take virtually anyone you know well, however knowledgable on world affairs, and look at their female siblings.

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  95. Mikhail says: • Website
    @Mitleser

    I was a fan of their early albums — “Late Socialism,” “Perestroika,” “Deindustrialization” — but everyone listens to them now.
     
    Go to hell, Keith.
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  96. Mikhail says: • Website
    @Toronto Russian
    Thanks for the info. I didn't know about ethnic sports teams. It's all school teams around, plus boat sport clubs on the lake. No single diaspora lives here in enough concentration, like Russians around Yummy Market - which area has its own football team, FC Vorkuta:)

    Hmm. Been of the impression that the Toronto area is fairly well represented with a Ukrainian contingent, as is true of Winnipeg and Edmonton.

    Read More
    • Replies: @Toronto Russian
    Sure, and they have a team too. And strong cultural presence. Ukrainian churches in West Toronto and Mississauga:
    https://s3-media4.fl.yelpcdn.com/bphoto/IbiEqpnIYXI5hXOcbFyEpw/l.jpg
    https://i1.trekearth.com/photos/85209/st_mary_ukrainian_church.jpg
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  97. Late Yeltsin vibes

    Read More
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  98. @Kimppis
    LOL @ both Thorfinnsson and Daniel Chieh

    ============

    Dmitry, this report is a good source and I think Anatoly has been using it as well:

    https://www.awaragroup.com/blog/putin-midterm-interim-results/

    - Oil & gas does not count for over 50% of state revenues as has been claimed, but only 27.4% [in 2012]. Top revenue source is instead payroll taxes [when you include the so-called "consolidated budget]
     
    The main reason for Russia's very rapid growth in the 2000s was actually the particularly severe collapse in the 90s + all the reasons why most other Eastern European countries grew rapidly as well. Of course the high oil prices helped, but it really has been exaggerated.

    In any case and as I already said, the federal budget is based on $40 oil, so that dependency is decreasing steadily. And despite being conservative, the Economic Development Ministry forecasts high GDP and investment growth rates by the early 20s, so overall things don't look bad.

    Agreed, floating the rouble and letting it fall also really helped with the deficit.

    Russia is still under-performing relative to potential notwithstanding the sanctions, though. The high interest rates now are a legacy of the 15% inflation that was running in 2015. The deleveraging of foreign debt has been accompanied by about 500 trade protection measures that were brought in between 2008 and 2015, which is second only to India and only benefits crony capitalists. Capital investment as a proportion of GDP has been running in the low 20s for the past decade which is among the lowest rates for large, emerging economies. Needs to be between 25 to 35% for serious growth acceleration. Apart from a few high-tech companies, most of the non-oil economy isn’t making much headway. Poland for example currently has 860 odd public listed companies, Russia has about 230.

    Read More
    • Replies: @anonymous coward

    Apart from a few high-tech companies, most of the non-oil economy isn’t making much headway. Poland for example currently has 860 odd public listed companies, Russia has about 230.
     
    Odd that you think that a lack of public listed companies means 'not making economic headway'.

    Russia has no stock market because Russia is a state capitalist economy. (And always was, dating to at least Ivan IV's reign.)

    Whether or not Russia makes economic headway depends on having the right human capital in the top echelons of state power, and that depends on having the right human capital metrics.

    The stock market isn't even a tiny blip on a tiny blip in that picture.
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  99. LondonBob says:
    @Bliss
    England is gutted.

    The Croats deserved the win. From the beginning of the second half they were the better team.

    Amazingly, playing in their 3rd consecutive overtime they looked more energetic than the younger English.

    Yes the Croats displayed levels of endurance that defy explanation…

    Read More
    • Replies: @Mitleser
    So, the final is between Françafrique and doped Croats.
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  100. LondonBob says:
    @Beckow
    Croats have better individual skills and once they started to play seriously in the 2nd half, England looked toothless and lost most balls. Croatia controlled the game. They were cutting through English defence like a knife through butter. It was a good game overall. The checkered flag is also cool (nicely symbolising Croats' checkered history).

    England would get massacred against France, so this was not a bad way for them to exit.

    I would happily lost by a few goals to Belgium in the final, France would have been painful.

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  101. @Ali Choudhury
    Agreed, floating the rouble and letting it fall also really helped with the deficit.

    Russia is still under-performing relative to potential notwithstanding the sanctions, though. The high interest rates now are a legacy of the 15% inflation that was running in 2015. The deleveraging of foreign debt has been accompanied by about 500 trade protection measures that were brought in between 2008 and 2015, which is second only to India and only benefits crony capitalists. Capital investment as a proportion of GDP has been running in the low 20s for the past decade which is among the lowest rates for large, emerging economies. Needs to be between 25 to 35% for serious growth acceleration. Apart from a few high-tech companies, most of the non-oil economy isn't making much headway. Poland for example currently has 860 odd public listed companies, Russia has about 230.

    Apart from a few high-tech companies, most of the non-oil economy isn’t making much headway. Poland for example currently has 860 odd public listed companies, Russia has about 230.

    Odd that you think that a lack of public listed companies means ‘not making economic headway’.

    Russia has no stock market because Russia is a state capitalist economy. (And always was, dating to at least Ivan IV’s reign.)

    Whether or not Russia makes economic headway depends on having the right human capital in the top echelons of state power, and that depends on having the right human capital metrics.

    The stock market isn’t even a tiny blip on a tiny blip in that picture.

    Read More
    • Replies: @Ali Choudhury
    Russia could try maybe not being a state capitalist country? It breeds corruption, inefficiency, cronyism and the flight of the productive middle class.
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  102. Hail says: • Website

    Europe’s National Teams at World Cup 2018 by Racial Ancestry

    In Brief

    Racial ancestry of each World Cup team

    Belgium: 70% White, 22% Black, 17% Muslim
    Croatia: 100% White, no Muslims
    — Denmark: 90% White, 10% Black
    England: 63% White, 37% Black, No Muslims
    France: 33% White, 52% Black, 33% Muslim
    — Germany: 83% White, <7% Black, 11% Muslim
    — Iceland: 100% White, 98% Icelandic
    — Poland: 100% White, disproportionately from western Poland
    — Portugal: 77% White, heavy African-colonial presence with 20% Black
    Russia: 84% White, 16% from Soviet periphery (Central Asia, Caucuses)
    — Serbia: 94% White, 4% Muslim, 4% Gypsy[?]
    — Spain: 92% White, <6% Black, No Muslims
    — Switzerland: 70% White, but only 44% White-Christian
    — Sweden: 91% White, <5% Black, No Muslims

    Of note:

    - France has more Muslims than full-White-Christians on their ‘national’ team. By one method of calculation, the White-French ancestral component of the team is 16%.

    - A majority of England ‘national’ players have at least some Subsaharan African ancestry. (This contra the concept of England is the Islamic Republic of England, even as a joke — Black numbers may approach non-Black Muslim numbers in UK already today and long-term Blacks are much bigger difficulty).

    Read More
    • Replies: @reiner Tor
    These numbers are dubious. Where is the “Russian” Brazilian?
    , @Ali Choudhury
    Shaqiri, Xhaka and the other Bosnians\Albanians\Kosovans would bump up the Muslim count for Switzerland.

    The starting XI for France is usually 50% white - Lloris, Pavard, Hernandez, Griezmann, Giroud and then Varane (Martiniquan father, French mother), Umtiti, Pogba, Kante, Mbappe (Algerian - Cameroonian) and Matuidi.

    Of the whites, Griezmann's ancestors originally came from Munster, Giroud's from Italy and Hernandez's from Spain.
    , @Anatoly Karlin
    Prodigious effort. Well done! I'll highlight it in my World Cup Final post.
    , @DFH

    This contra the concept of England is the Islamic Republic of England, even as a joke — Black numbers may approach non-Black Muslim numbers in UK already today and long-term Blacks are much bigger difficulty
     
    The reason there are not Muslim football players is because Indians are a weak, inbred and unathletic people. Blacks are about 3% of the population and Subcontinental Muslims are 2.5% (underestimates)
    but Muslims are more of a problem because they are more intelligent and better organised to press their hostile interests (although these issues are tangential to the composition of the national team).
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  103. @Hail
    Europe’s National Teams at World Cup 2018 by Racial Ancestry

    In Brief

    Racial ancestry of each World Cup team

    Belgium: 70% White, 22% Black, 17% Muslim
    Croatia: 100% White, no Muslims
    — Denmark: 90% White, 10% Black
    England: 63% White, 37% Black, No Muslims
    France: 33% White, 52% Black, 33% Muslim
    — Germany: 83% White, <7% Black, 11% Muslim
    — Iceland: 100% White, 98% Icelandic
    — Poland: 100% White, disproportionately from western Poland
    — Portugal: 77% White, heavy African-colonial presence with 20% Black
    Russia: 84% White, 16% from Soviet periphery (Central Asia, Caucuses)
    — Serbia: 94% White, 4% Muslim, 4% Gypsy[?]
    — Spain: 92% White, <6% Black, No Muslims
    — Switzerland: 70% White, but only 44% White-Christian
    — Sweden: 91% White, <5% Black, No Muslims
     
    Of note:

    - France has more Muslims than full-White-Christians on their 'national' team. By one method of calculation, the White-French ancestral component of the team is 16%.

    - A majority of England 'national' players have at least some Subsaharan African ancestry. (This contra the concept of England is the Islamic Republic of England, even as a joke -- Black numbers may approach non-Black Muslim numbers in UK already today and long-term Blacks are much bigger difficulty).

    These numbers are dubious. Where is the “Russian” Brazilian?

    Read More
    • Replies: @Mitleser
    Mário Fernandes? Do you question his white ancestry?

    https://hailtoyou.files.wordpress.com/2018/07/russia-national-football-team-full-23-2018-google.png
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  104. My previous comment got lost.

    Pessimistic news about the Su-57:

    http://uk.businessinsider.com/russia-admits-defeat-su-57-not-going-into-mass-production-2018-7

    Read More
    • Replies: @Mitleser
    You did already post that.

    That news was mainly about interest in exporting it.

    He said there is no need to work on mass production for the moment.

    Su-35 is already fulfilling their needs, and when it falls behind other countries’ planes they have this project.
     
    http://www.unz.com/akarlin/russians-like-some-immigrants-more-than-others/#comment-2405559
    , @Kimppis
    Yeah, I think that article is nonsense. How did you even find that LOL?

    IIRC, that Alex Lockie guy is extremely biased against both Russian and Chinese military technologies. Business Insider is a joke as a "source" as well, especially when it comes to these kind of topics.

    First of all, Su-57 not being stealth is subjective and propagandaistic BS. All the usual tropes are there: from not being stealthy, the plane's capabilities being disappointing in general, no Indian funding (which apparently was not necessary in the first place, the Russian version of Su-57 was always mostly funded by Russia).

    It was alrerady known that the initial order for Su-57 is going to smaller than originally planned. But even those supposed quotes don't suggest anything more dramatic. They have also already built like 10 different prototypes, 2 (?) of which were tested in Syria. So certainly from that point of view, the program has progressed reasonably normally and nothing suggests that it's somehow a "failure" or "dead," quite the opposite in fact.

    Russian "mass production" is also very different from American "mass production". The US produces or is planning to produce 100 F-35s annually, whereas Russia simultaneously orders many different types of jets.
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  105. @Hail
    Europe’s National Teams at World Cup 2018 by Racial Ancestry

    In Brief

    Racial ancestry of each World Cup team

    Belgium: 70% White, 22% Black, 17% Muslim
    Croatia: 100% White, no Muslims
    — Denmark: 90% White, 10% Black
    England: 63% White, 37% Black, No Muslims
    France: 33% White, 52% Black, 33% Muslim
    — Germany: 83% White, <7% Black, 11% Muslim
    — Iceland: 100% White, 98% Icelandic
    — Poland: 100% White, disproportionately from western Poland
    — Portugal: 77% White, heavy African-colonial presence with 20% Black
    Russia: 84% White, 16% from Soviet periphery (Central Asia, Caucuses)
    — Serbia: 94% White, 4% Muslim, 4% Gypsy[?]
    — Spain: 92% White, <6% Black, No Muslims
    — Switzerland: 70% White, but only 44% White-Christian
    — Sweden: 91% White, <5% Black, No Muslims
     
    Of note:

    - France has more Muslims than full-White-Christians on their 'national' team. By one method of calculation, the White-French ancestral component of the team is 16%.

    - A majority of England 'national' players have at least some Subsaharan African ancestry. (This contra the concept of England is the Islamic Republic of England, even as a joke -- Black numbers may approach non-Black Muslim numbers in UK already today and long-term Blacks are much bigger difficulty).

    Shaqiri, Xhaka and the other Bosnians\Albanians\Kosovans would bump up the Muslim count for Switzerland.

    The starting XI for France is usually 50% white – Lloris, Pavard, Hernandez, Griezmann, Giroud and then Varane (Martiniquan father, French mother), Umtiti, Pogba, Kante, Mbappe (Algerian – Cameroonian) and Matuidi.

    Of the whites, Griezmann’s ancestors originally came from Munster, Giroud’s from Italy and Hernandez’s from Spain.

    Read More
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  106. Mitleser says:
    @reiner Tor
    My previous comment got lost.

    Pessimistic news about the Su-57:

    http://uk.businessinsider.com/russia-admits-defeat-su-57-not-going-into-mass-production-2018-7

    You did already post that.

    That news was mainly about interest in exporting it.

    He said there is no need to work on mass production for the moment.

    Su-35 is already fulfilling their needs, and when it falls behind other countries’ planes they have this project.

    http://www.unz.com/akarlin/russians-like-some-immigrants-more-than-others/#comment-2405559

    Read More
    • Replies: @reiner Tor
    It was in Russian which I didn’t understand fully and Dmitry said it didn’t mean anything bad.
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  107. Mitleser says:
    @LondonBob
    Yes the Croats displayed levels of endurance that defy explanation...

    So, the final is between Françafrique and doped Croats.

    Read More
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  108. @anonymous coward

    Apart from a few high-tech companies, most of the non-oil economy isn’t making much headway. Poland for example currently has 860 odd public listed companies, Russia has about 230.
     
    Odd that you think that a lack of public listed companies means 'not making economic headway'.

    Russia has no stock market because Russia is a state capitalist economy. (And always was, dating to at least Ivan IV's reign.)

    Whether or not Russia makes economic headway depends on having the right human capital in the top echelons of state power, and that depends on having the right human capital metrics.

    The stock market isn't even a tiny blip on a tiny blip in that picture.

    Russia could try maybe not being a state capitalist country? It breeds corruption, inefficiency, cronyism and the flight of the productive middle class.

    Read More
    • Replies: @Daniel Chieh
    Yelsin era was so much better.
    , @anonymous coward

    Russia could try maybe not being a state capitalist country?
     
    Why? History shows quite clearly that Russia is strong and prosperous in times of strong state capitalism, and weak and poor during laissez-faire times.

    It breeds corruption, inefficiency, cronyism and the flight of the productive middle class.
     
    Not in Russia it doesn't. This has been demonstrated empirically many times already, no real need to repeat this experiment again.
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  109. Mitleser says:
    @reiner Tor
    These numbers are dubious. Where is the “Russian” Brazilian?

    Mário Fernandes? Do you question his white ancestry?

    Read More
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  110. @Mitleser
    You did already post that.

    That news was mainly about interest in exporting it.

    He said there is no need to work on mass production for the moment.

    Su-35 is already fulfilling their needs, and when it falls behind other countries’ planes they have this project.
     
    http://www.unz.com/akarlin/russians-like-some-immigrants-more-than-others/#comment-2405559

    It was in Russian which I didn’t understand fully and Dmitry said it didn’t mean anything bad.

    Read More
    • Replies: @Mitleser
    Exactly, it is a fake news.

    Title of the article: "Russia admits defeat on its 'stealth' F-35 killer by canceling mass production on the Su-57 fighter jet"

    What was really said: "...it does not make sense to speed up work on mass-producing the fifth-generation aircraft.”

    Why does "it does not make sense to speed up work on mass-producing" mutate into "canceling mass production"?
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  111. @Hail
    Europe’s National Teams at World Cup 2018 by Racial Ancestry

    In Brief

    Racial ancestry of each World Cup team

    Belgium: 70% White, 22% Black, 17% Muslim
    Croatia: 100% White, no Muslims
    — Denmark: 90% White, 10% Black
    England: 63% White, 37% Black, No Muslims
    France: 33% White, 52% Black, 33% Muslim
    — Germany: 83% White, <7% Black, 11% Muslim
    — Iceland: 100% White, 98% Icelandic
    — Poland: 100% White, disproportionately from western Poland
    — Portugal: 77% White, heavy African-colonial presence with 20% Black
    Russia: 84% White, 16% from Soviet periphery (Central Asia, Caucuses)
    — Serbia: 94% White, 4% Muslim, 4% Gypsy[?]
    — Spain: 92% White, <6% Black, No Muslims
    — Switzerland: 70% White, but only 44% White-Christian
    — Sweden: 91% White, <5% Black, No Muslims
     
    Of note:

    - France has more Muslims than full-White-Christians on their 'national' team. By one method of calculation, the White-French ancestral component of the team is 16%.

    - A majority of England 'national' players have at least some Subsaharan African ancestry. (This contra the concept of England is the Islamic Republic of England, even as a joke -- Black numbers may approach non-Black Muslim numbers in UK already today and long-term Blacks are much bigger difficulty).

    Prodigious effort. Well done! I’ll highlight it in my World Cup Final post.

    Read More
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  112. DFH says:
    @Hail
    Europe’s National Teams at World Cup 2018 by Racial Ancestry

    In Brief

    Racial ancestry of each World Cup team

    Belgium: 70% White, 22% Black, 17% Muslim
    Croatia: 100% White, no Muslims
    — Denmark: 90% White, 10% Black
    England: 63% White, 37% Black, No Muslims
    France: 33% White, 52% Black, 33% Muslim
    — Germany: 83% White, <7% Black, 11% Muslim
    — Iceland: 100% White, 98% Icelandic
    — Poland: 100% White, disproportionately from western Poland
    — Portugal: 77% White, heavy African-colonial presence with 20% Black
    Russia: 84% White, 16% from Soviet periphery (Central Asia, Caucuses)
    — Serbia: 94% White, 4% Muslim, 4% Gypsy[?]
    — Spain: 92% White, <6% Black, No Muslims
    — Switzerland: 70% White, but only 44% White-Christian
    — Sweden: 91% White, <5% Black, No Muslims
     
    Of note:

    - France has more Muslims than full-White-Christians on their 'national' team. By one method of calculation, the White-French ancestral component of the team is 16%.

    - A majority of England 'national' players have at least some Subsaharan African ancestry. (This contra the concept of England is the Islamic Republic of England, even as a joke -- Black numbers may approach non-Black Muslim numbers in UK already today and long-term Blacks are much bigger difficulty).

    This contra the concept of England is the Islamic Republic of England, even as a joke — Black numbers may approach non-Black Muslim numbers in UK already today and long-term Blacks are much bigger difficulty

    The reason there are not Muslim football players is because Indians are a weak, inbred and unathletic people. Blacks are about 3% of the population and Subcontinental Muslims are 2.5% (underestimates)
    but Muslims are more of a problem because they are more intelligent and better organised to press their hostile interests (although these issues are tangential to the composition of the national team).

    Read More
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  113. @Ali Choudhury
    Russia could try maybe not being a state capitalist country? It breeds corruption, inefficiency, cronyism and the flight of the productive middle class.

    Yelsin era was so much better.

    Read More
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  114. Mitleser says:
    @reiner Tor
    It was in Russian which I didn’t understand fully and Dmitry said it didn’t mean anything bad.

    Exactly, it is a fake news.

    Title of the article: “Russia admits defeat on its ‘stealth’ F-35 killer by canceling mass production on the Su-57 fighter jet”

    What was really said: “…it does not make sense to speed up work on mass-producing the fifth-generation aircraft.”

    Why does “it does not make sense to speed up work on mass-producing” mutate into “canceling mass production”?

    Read More
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  115. Mitleser says:

    China is getting worried about demographics.

    Read More
    • Replies: @Daniel Chieh
    Its a major issue that the Party is tackling and I don't know if they will succeed. Its highly tied to two issues rampant in China:

    1) Housing prices. With dense urbanization and speculation, housing prices are ridiculous. People historically did have children in highly dense environments - a Russian friend of mine came from a tiny Soviet-era apartment where somehow his parents, a sister, and a dog all fit in maybe 350 square feet, but it doesn't seem to happen anymore.

    2) Materialism and status concerns. People are still having one child, but no one seems to be having the second child; money is seen as everything sometimes, and children means fewer days working and being able to get ahead, so the entire labor culture is hurting fertility. Everyone "knows" the government wants them to have children, so they instead resent the Party for wanting to put them behind in life.

    I've wondered if a lot of the effort by the government signal for Confucianism and other traditional status markers is to try to break away from that. A morality focused on wealth acquisition, even if corruption is purged, etc, will still not give you any children because on a purely material level, children are a bad financial vehicle to invest in.
    , @DFH
    If only all of America could be South Dakota
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  116. Mitleser says:

    Tropical hyperborea!

    Read More
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  117. Mitleser says:

    World Cup in Qatar can be the hottest World Cup.
    Will Arab/Iranian teams perform better?

    Read More
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  118. @Mitleser
    China is getting worried about demographics.

    https://twitter.com/jc_mittelstadt/status/1017117070813728770

    https://twitter.com/globaltimesnews/status/1017700183419904000

    https://farm5.staticflickr.com/4607/38891606114_43f2f548e2_o.png

    Its a major issue that the Party is tackling and I don’t know if they will succeed. Its highly tied to two issues rampant in China:

    1) Housing prices. With dense urbanization and speculation, housing prices are ridiculous. People historically did have children in highly dense environments – a Russian friend of mine came from a tiny Soviet-era apartment where somehow his parents, a sister, and a dog all fit in maybe 350 square feet, but it doesn’t seem to happen anymore.

    2) Materialism and status concerns. People are still having one child, but no one seems to be having the second child; money is seen as everything sometimes, and children means fewer days working and being able to get ahead, so the entire labor culture is hurting fertility. Everyone “knows” the government wants them to have children, so they instead resent the Party for wanting to put them behind in life.

    I’ve wondered if a lot of the effort by the government signal for Confucianism and other traditional status markers is to try to break away from that. A morality focused on wealth acquisition, even if corruption is purged, etc, will still not give you any children because on a purely material level, children are a bad financial vehicle to invest in.

    Read More
    • Replies: @Anatoly Karlin

    ... but it doesn’t seem to happen anymore.
     
    It does in some cultures.

    https://www.unzcloud.com/wp-content/uploads/2018/07/israel-ghetto.jpg

    This is Modi’in Illit in Israel, a concrete ghetto. Its population grows by 13% per year, and the median age is just about 10. It also happens to be the largest settlement of Haredi Jews in the Occupied Territories.
    , @Hyperborean

    A morality focused on wealth acquisition, even if corruption is purged, etc, will still not give you any children because on a purely material level, children are a bad financial vehicle to invest in.
     
    Make not having children a financial drawback?
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  119. DFH says:
    @Mitleser
    China is getting worried about demographics.

    https://twitter.com/jc_mittelstadt/status/1017117070813728770

    https://twitter.com/globaltimesnews/status/1017700183419904000

    https://farm5.staticflickr.com/4607/38891606114_43f2f548e2_o.png

    If only all of America could be South Dakota

    Read More
    • Agree: RadicalCenter
    • Replies: @Mitleser
    Why don't you prefer the more democratic Nebraska?
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  120. Mitleser says:
    @DFH
    If only all of America could be South Dakota

    Why don’t you prefer the more democratic Nebraska?

    Read More
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  121. @Daniel Chieh
    Its a major issue that the Party is tackling and I don't know if they will succeed. Its highly tied to two issues rampant in China:

    1) Housing prices. With dense urbanization and speculation, housing prices are ridiculous. People historically did have children in highly dense environments - a Russian friend of mine came from a tiny Soviet-era apartment where somehow his parents, a sister, and a dog all fit in maybe 350 square feet, but it doesn't seem to happen anymore.

    2) Materialism and status concerns. People are still having one child, but no one seems to be having the second child; money is seen as everything sometimes, and children means fewer days working and being able to get ahead, so the entire labor culture is hurting fertility. Everyone "knows" the government wants them to have children, so they instead resent the Party for wanting to put them behind in life.

    I've wondered if a lot of the effort by the government signal for Confucianism and other traditional status markers is to try to break away from that. A morality focused on wealth acquisition, even if corruption is purged, etc, will still not give you any children because on a purely material level, children are a bad financial vehicle to invest in.

    … but it doesn’t seem to happen anymore.

    It does in some cultures.

    This is Modi’in Illit in Israel, a concrete ghetto. Its population grows by 13% per year, and the median age is just about 10. It also happens to be the largest settlement of Haredi Jews in the Occupied Territories.

    Read More
    • Replies: @Daniel Chieh
    Very Hive world.

    Praise the Emperor..um...Messiah?
    , @Mitleser
    It is a matter of culture.
    Religious sub-cultures like Haredis or Mormons are more willing to compromise for the sake of their children than normies in their country.
    , @Hyperborean
    Are these the ones who don't work or not?
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  122. @Anatoly Karlin

    ... but it doesn’t seem to happen anymore.
     
    It does in some cultures.

    https://www.unzcloud.com/wp-content/uploads/2018/07/israel-ghetto.jpg

    This is Modi’in Illit in Israel, a concrete ghetto. Its population grows by 13% per year, and the median age is just about 10. It also happens to be the largest settlement of Haredi Jews in the Occupied Territories.

    Very Hive world.

    Praise the Emperor..um…Messiah?

    Read More
    • Replies: @Anatoly Karlin
    Imperium of Man is basically the Age of Malthusian Industrialism with superluminal space travel.
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  123. @Ali Choudhury
    Russia could try maybe not being a state capitalist country? It breeds corruption, inefficiency, cronyism and the flight of the productive middle class.

    Russia could try maybe not being a state capitalist country?

    Why? History shows quite clearly that Russia is strong and prosperous in times of strong state capitalism, and weak and poor during laissez-faire times.

    It breeds corruption, inefficiency, cronyism and the flight of the productive middle class.

    Not in Russia it doesn’t. This has been demonstrated empirically many times already, no real need to repeat this experiment again.

    Read More
    • Replies: @Ali Choudhury
    Hmm. Oh well, thanks for your reply.
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  124. Mitleser says:
    @Anatoly Karlin

    ... but it doesn’t seem to happen anymore.
     
    It does in some cultures.

    https://www.unzcloud.com/wp-content/uploads/2018/07/israel-ghetto.jpg

    This is Modi’in Illit in Israel, a concrete ghetto. Its population grows by 13% per year, and the median age is just about 10. It also happens to be the largest settlement of Haredi Jews in the Occupied Territories.

    It is a matter of culture.
    Religious sub-cultures like Haredis or Mormons are more willing to compromise for the sake of their children than normies in their country.

    Read More
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  125. @Daniel Chieh
    Its a major issue that the Party is tackling and I don't know if they will succeed. Its highly tied to two issues rampant in China:

    1) Housing prices. With dense urbanization and speculation, housing prices are ridiculous. People historically did have children in highly dense environments - a Russian friend of mine came from a tiny Soviet-era apartment where somehow his parents, a sister, and a dog all fit in maybe 350 square feet, but it doesn't seem to happen anymore.

    2) Materialism and status concerns. People are still having one child, but no one seems to be having the second child; money is seen as everything sometimes, and children means fewer days working and being able to get ahead, so the entire labor culture is hurting fertility. Everyone "knows" the government wants them to have children, so they instead resent the Party for wanting to put them behind in life.

    I've wondered if a lot of the effort by the government signal for Confucianism and other traditional status markers is to try to break away from that. A morality focused on wealth acquisition, even if corruption is purged, etc, will still not give you any children because on a purely material level, children are a bad financial vehicle to invest in.

    A morality focused on wealth acquisition, even if corruption is purged, etc, will still not give you any children because on a purely material level, children are a bad financial vehicle to invest in.

    Make not having children a financial drawback?

    Read More
    • Replies: @Daniel Chieh
    Would be nice. The question is how to structure the incentive to avoid a backlash from a modernized middle class and the pensioners who assume that the funds are being robbed from them.
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  126. @Anatoly Karlin

    ... but it doesn’t seem to happen anymore.
     
    It does in some cultures.

    https://www.unzcloud.com/wp-content/uploads/2018/07/israel-ghetto.jpg

    This is Modi’in Illit in Israel, a concrete ghetto. Its population grows by 13% per year, and the median age is just about 10. It also happens to be the largest settlement of Haredi Jews in the Occupied Territories.

    Are these the ones who don’t work or not?

    Read More
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  127. Kimppis says:
    @reiner Tor
    My previous comment got lost.

    Pessimistic news about the Su-57:

    http://uk.businessinsider.com/russia-admits-defeat-su-57-not-going-into-mass-production-2018-7

    Yeah, I think that article is nonsense. How did you even find that LOL?

    IIRC, that Alex Lockie guy is extremely biased against both Russian and Chinese military technologies. Business Insider is a joke as a “source” as well, especially when it comes to these kind of topics.

    First of all, Su-57 not being stealth is subjective and propagandaistic BS. All the usual tropes are there: from not being stealthy, the plane’s capabilities being disappointing in general, no Indian funding (which apparently was not necessary in the first place, the Russian version of Su-57 was always mostly funded by Russia).

    It was alrerady known that the initial order for Su-57 is going to smaller than originally planned. But even those supposed quotes don’t suggest anything more dramatic. They have also already built like 10 different prototypes, 2 (?) of which were tested in Syria. So certainly from that point of view, the program has progressed reasonably normally and nothing suggests that it’s somehow a “failure” or “dead,” quite the opposite in fact.

    Russian “mass production” is also very different from American “mass production”. The US produces or is planning to produce 100 F-35s annually, whereas Russia simultaneously orders many different types of jets.

    Read More
    • Replies: @reiner Tor

    How did you even find that LOL?
     
    A quick news search (su-57) when someone was sharing a highly negative Su-57 story. All the headlines were repeating these points, I could’ve shared a few other sources making the same points.

    Here’s another one, it sounds more objective:

    https://thediplomat.com/2018/07/russia-will-not-mass-produce-5th-generation-stealth-fighter-jet/
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  128. @anonymous coward

    Russia could try maybe not being a state capitalist country?
     
    Why? History shows quite clearly that Russia is strong and prosperous in times of strong state capitalism, and weak and poor during laissez-faire times.

    It breeds corruption, inefficiency, cronyism and the flight of the productive middle class.
     
    Not in Russia it doesn't. This has been demonstrated empirically many times already, no real need to repeat this experiment again.

    Hmm. Oh well, thanks for your reply.

    Read More
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  129. @Hyperborean

    A morality focused on wealth acquisition, even if corruption is purged, etc, will still not give you any children because on a purely material level, children are a bad financial vehicle to invest in.
     
    Make not having children a financial drawback?

    Would be nice. The question is how to structure the incentive to avoid a backlash from a modernized middle class and the pensioners who assume that the funds are being robbed from them.

    Read More
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  130. @Mikhail
    Hmm. Been of the impression that the Toronto area is fairly well represented with a Ukrainian contingent, as is true of Winnipeg and Edmonton.

    Sure, and they have a team too. And strong cultural presence. Ukrainian churches in West Toronto and Mississauga:

    Read More
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  131. @Daniel Chieh
    Very Hive world.

    Praise the Emperor..um...Messiah?

    Imperium of Man is basically the Age of Malthusian Industrialism with superluminal space travel.

    Read More
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  132. @Kimppis
    Yeah, I think that article is nonsense. How did you even find that LOL?

    IIRC, that Alex Lockie guy is extremely biased against both Russian and Chinese military technologies. Business Insider is a joke as a "source" as well, especially when it comes to these kind of topics.

    First of all, Su-57 not being stealth is subjective and propagandaistic BS. All the usual tropes are there: from not being stealthy, the plane's capabilities being disappointing in general, no Indian funding (which apparently was not necessary in the first place, the Russian version of Su-57 was always mostly funded by Russia).

    It was alrerady known that the initial order for Su-57 is going to smaller than originally planned. But even those supposed quotes don't suggest anything more dramatic. They have also already built like 10 different prototypes, 2 (?) of which were tested in Syria. So certainly from that point of view, the program has progressed reasonably normally and nothing suggests that it's somehow a "failure" or "dead," quite the opposite in fact.

    Russian "mass production" is also very different from American "mass production". The US produces or is planning to produce 100 F-35s annually, whereas Russia simultaneously orders many different types of jets.

    How did you even find that LOL?

    A quick news search (su-57) when someone was sharing a highly negative Su-57 story. All the headlines were repeating these points, I could’ve shared a few other sources making the same points.

    Here’s another one, it sounds more objective:

    https://thediplomat.com/2018/07/russia-will-not-mass-produce-5th-generation-stealth-fighter-jet/

    Read More
    • Replies: @Dmitry
    The guy on the news said there's no need to mass produce right now.

    He did not say that the engine is not prepared yet (but was going offtopic, talking about how good SU-35 plane is) - but the engine is the obvious reason to wait before mass producing.

    Otherwise, it surely seems like a waste of resources (mass producing a plane before a new engine is available)

    New engine will be available in a few years, so mass production will probably begin after that. Before this they do some lower-scale production (serial production) and look for export countries.

    , @Kimppis
    Now that's better. I'm still not convinced much has changed, but it really makes for some dramatic headlines.

    As I said, Russia's "mass production" is different from that of America's. It makes zero sense not to eventually procure atleast 150-200 planes, they have 10 prototypes and the new engine is being tested.

    I also don't think it was ever supposed to replace all Su-27s and especially Mig-29s (makes no sense), but instead maybe at most 250 in roughly two decades time (and maybe more after that). So when looking into the 30s, I'm really not too worried.

    One difference seems to be that they are only ordering 12 planes with the existing engines, instead of the original 60. The final 5th generation engine seems to still be on schedule, it was never supposed to be ready with the initial version of the plane (originally planned for 2015-16, or so).

    However, it's undeniable there have been some unexpected issues with the project and the excuse that "they don't need Su-57s" is of course not convincing either. As well, the spin that they would order "additional" Su-35s instead is nonsense, because there have been no additional orders for 4th generation jets (I mean in addition to those originally planned, the 100 Su-35 by 2020 were planned from the beginning).

    I actually blackpilled about this whole "Russia can't into next-gen weapons 'mass-production'" thing earlier and it's probably partially (or even largely) explained by all those current technological weaknesses. Russia's media hype has not helped either, that much is clear. They could really learn a thing or two from China.

    But really the point is that the hyperbole from the "other side" was and is not accurate either. There were never plans to replace all those 4th gen fighters with Su-57s anytime soon and mass production meant maybe 10-12 planes annually.

    The Armata program and "2000 T-14s by 2020" is another good example. AFAIK, the Russians were actually talking about 2000 "modern" tanks, that included upgrades. So a mix of misunderstandings, mistranslations and probably some wishful thinking as well.

    So overall, these failures should not be exaggerated, and of course in general the modernization program has been a success and Russian military is now a modern fighting force.

    However, one thing is becoming clear and IMO undeniable: China's military in 2025 will be considerably stronger than Russia's. The J-20 program (despite still being equipped with inferior engines, probably) is a great symbol of that, and only the beginning. Russia will keep "punching above its weight" (and I'm basing it on PPP), but there are some obvious limits to that, as these issues and China's rise show simultaneously.
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  133. Dmitry says:
    @reiner Tor

    How did you even find that LOL?
     
    A quick news search (su-57) when someone was sharing a highly negative Su-57 story. All the headlines were repeating these points, I could’ve shared a few other sources making the same points.

    Here’s another one, it sounds more objective:

    https://thediplomat.com/2018/07/russia-will-not-mass-produce-5th-generation-stealth-fighter-jet/

    The guy on the news said there’s no need to mass produce right now.

    He did not say that the engine is not prepared yet (but was going offtopic, talking about how good SU-35 plane is) – but the engine is the obvious reason to wait before mass producing.

    Otherwise, it surely seems like a waste of resources (mass producing a plane before a new engine is available)

    New engine will be available in a few years, so mass production will probably begin after that. Before this they do some lower-scale production (serial production) and look for export countries.

    Read More
    • Replies: @Dmitry
    They plan to install the new engines from 2023-25*, so mass production could begin around then I might guess.

    -

    *
    https://www.vedomosti.ru/technology/news/2017/12/06/744353-opublikovano-su-57

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  134. Dmitry says:
    @Dmitry
    The guy on the news said there's no need to mass produce right now.

    He did not say that the engine is not prepared yet (but was going offtopic, talking about how good SU-35 plane is) - but the engine is the obvious reason to wait before mass producing.

    Otherwise, it surely seems like a waste of resources (mass producing a plane before a new engine is available)

    New engine will be available in a few years, so mass production will probably begin after that. Before this they do some lower-scale production (serial production) and look for export countries.

    They plan to install the new engines from 2023-25*, so mass production could begin around then I might guess.

    -

    *

    https://www.vedomosti.ru/technology/news/2017/12/06/744353-opublikovano-su-57

    Read More
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  135. Kimppis says:
    @reiner Tor

    How did you even find that LOL?
     
    A quick news search (su-57) when someone was sharing a highly negative Su-57 story. All the headlines were repeating these points, I could’ve shared a few other sources making the same points.

    Here’s another one, it sounds more objective:

    https://thediplomat.com/2018/07/russia-will-not-mass-produce-5th-generation-stealth-fighter-jet/

    Now that’s better. I’m still not convinced much has changed, but it really makes for some dramatic headlines.

    As I said, Russia’s “mass production” is different from that of America’s. It makes zero sense not to eventually procure atleast 150-200 planes, they have 10 prototypes and the new engine is being tested.

    I also don’t think it was ever supposed to replace all Su-27s and especially Mig-29s (makes no sense), but instead maybe at most 250 in roughly two decades time (and maybe more after that). So when looking into the 30s, I’m really not too worried.

    One difference seems to be that they are only ordering 12 planes with the existing engines, instead of the original 60. The final 5th generation engine seems to still be on schedule, it was never supposed to be ready with the initial version of the plane (originally planned for 2015-16, or so).

    However, it’s undeniable there have been some unexpected issues with the project and the excuse that “they don’t need Su-57s” is of course not convincing either. As well, the spin that they would order “additional” Su-35s instead is nonsense, because there have been no additional orders for 4th generation jets (I mean in addition to those originally planned, the 100 Su-35 by 2020 were planned from the beginning).

    I actually blackpilled about this whole “Russia can’t into next-gen weapons ‘mass-production’” thing earlier and it’s probably partially (or even largely) explained by all those current technological weaknesses. Russia’s media hype has not helped either, that much is clear. They could really learn a thing or two from China.

    But really the point is that the hyperbole from the “other side” was and is not accurate either. There were never plans to replace all those 4th gen fighters with Su-57s anytime soon and mass production meant maybe 10-12 planes annually.

    The Armata program and “2000 T-14s by 2020″ is another good example. AFAIK, the Russians were actually talking about 2000 “modern” tanks, that included upgrades. So a mix of misunderstandings, mistranslations and probably some wishful thinking as well.

    So overall, these failures should not be exaggerated, and of course in general the modernization program has been a success and Russian military is now a modern fighting force.

    However, one thing is becoming clear and IMO undeniable: China’s military in 2025 will be considerably stronger than Russia’s. The J-20 program (despite still being equipped with inferior engines, probably) is a great symbol of that, and only the beginning. Russia will keep “punching above its weight” (and I’m basing it on PPP), but there are some obvious limits to that, as these issues and China’s rise show simultaneously.

    Read More
    • Replies: @reiner Tor
    It’s an interesting question why they aren’t buying technologies from the Chinese. Or are they?

    I often read that apart from the engine, the J-20 is already there, is it any better than the Su-57? The Su-57 might already be ready apart from the engine, so it’s a draw. But such western sources are often less dismissive of it than of the Su-57, so maybe buying it from China would be a good idea? Would they sell it? Would it make sense to swap technologies with the J-20 and the Su-57?
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  136. @Kimppis
    Now that's better. I'm still not convinced much has changed, but it really makes for some dramatic headlines.

    As I said, Russia's "mass production" is different from that of America's. It makes zero sense not to eventually procure atleast 150-200 planes, they have 10 prototypes and the new engine is being tested.

    I also don't think it was ever supposed to replace all Su-27s and especially Mig-29s (makes no sense), but instead maybe at most 250 in roughly two decades time (and maybe more after that). So when looking into the 30s, I'm really not too worried.

    One difference seems to be that they are only ordering 12 planes with the existing engines, instead of the original 60. The final 5th generation engine seems to still be on schedule, it was never supposed to be ready with the initial version of the plane (originally planned for 2015-16, or so).

    However, it's undeniable there have been some unexpected issues with the project and the excuse that "they don't need Su-57s" is of course not convincing either. As well, the spin that they would order "additional" Su-35s instead is nonsense, because there have been no additional orders for 4th generation jets (I mean in addition to those originally planned, the 100 Su-35 by 2020 were planned from the beginning).

    I actually blackpilled about this whole "Russia can't into next-gen weapons 'mass-production'" thing earlier and it's probably partially (or even largely) explained by all those current technological weaknesses. Russia's media hype has not helped either, that much is clear. They could really learn a thing or two from China.

    But really the point is that the hyperbole from the "other side" was and is not accurate either. There were never plans to replace all those 4th gen fighters with Su-57s anytime soon and mass production meant maybe 10-12 planes annually.

    The Armata program and "2000 T-14s by 2020" is another good example. AFAIK, the Russians were actually talking about 2000 "modern" tanks, that included upgrades. So a mix of misunderstandings, mistranslations and probably some wishful thinking as well.

    So overall, these failures should not be exaggerated, and of course in general the modernization program has been a success and Russian military is now a modern fighting force.

    However, one thing is becoming clear and IMO undeniable: China's military in 2025 will be considerably stronger than Russia's. The J-20 program (despite still being equipped with inferior engines, probably) is a great symbol of that, and only the beginning. Russia will keep "punching above its weight" (and I'm basing it on PPP), but there are some obvious limits to that, as these issues and China's rise show simultaneously.

    It’s an interesting question why they aren’t buying technologies from the Chinese. Or are they?

    I often read that apart from the engine, the J-20 is already there, is it any better than the Su-57? The Su-57 might already be ready apart from the engine, so it’s a draw. But such western sources are often less dismissive of it than of the Su-57, so maybe buying it from China would be a good idea? Would they sell it? Would it make sense to swap technologies with the J-20 and the Su-57?

    Read More
    • Replies: @Kimppis
    Pride.

    Russian and American fanboys do have one thing in common: their strong dislike of Chinese technology, especially military. They are slowly starting to get it, but there's seriously like a lag time of 10 years, which is HUGE, when we're talking about modern China.

    I don't think J-20 is for export, it's very much China's F-22 and I'm not suggesting that Russia should order them in any case. It's however clear they could really order some frigates from China, even though Russia is very much a land power.

    Also, it's quite noticeable that Russia is more "dependent" on exports for its military tech, for obvious reasons (of course their "brand" is stronger too). China doesn't need to export any J-20s, but Russia is exporting like half of its annual Su-35 production and Su-57 is more or less immediately available for export as well (and these recent comments seem to suggest it's somehow "mainly" for export, but I really don't know what to make of them).

    It's naturally hard to compare the two planes objectively, but both are likely to be quite similar in overall capabilities. That said, it's becoming quite clear that the Chinese electronics industry is ahead of Russia (which is obvious), but that it includes the military as well (try to tell that to the Russian fanboys, though).

    A good example is that China already has numerous operational fighters with AESA-radars (J-10C, J-16 and J-20, atleast). Those limitations probably explain Russia's problems with the Su-57 to an extent. The radar itself is ready and it's capable, but the Russian industry is unable to manufacture them in numbers and that probably includes some other components as well.

    Yeah, I find it interesting that the Western sources are "suddenly" (?) more dismissive of the Su-57, I think that was not the case only a few years ago. Of course it makes sense, considering J-20 is actually operational and in production. But all those "memes" against the J-20 were more ridiculous than anything else I've seen. People still living in 1989, basically. How it's a "copy" of both F-22 and F-35 simultaneously (you can even add a third plane: the MiG-1.44), even though it looks totally different from both, seemingly because 1. it's Chinese, 2. it has... wings and 3. it's stealthy.

    Lastly I'd like to point out that these media wars against stealth fighters are nothing new. Look at all the alt-media (and even mainstream!) articles and especially comments about the F-35. While the project and the plane itself is certainly flawed, many people really seem to believe that F-35 is literally the worst fighter plane ever. I'd like that to be true of course, but c'mon...
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  137. Kimppis says:
    @reiner Tor
    It’s an interesting question why they aren’t buying technologies from the Chinese. Or are they?

    I often read that apart from the engine, the J-20 is already there, is it any better than the Su-57? The Su-57 might already be ready apart from the engine, so it’s a draw. But such western sources are often less dismissive of it than of the Su-57, so maybe buying it from China would be a good idea? Would they sell it? Would it make sense to swap technologies with the J-20 and the Su-57?

    Pride.

    Russian and American fanboys do have one thing in common: their strong dislike of Chinese technology, especially military. They are slowly starting to get it, but there’s seriously like a lag time of 10 years, which is HUGE, when we’re talking about modern China.

    I don’t think J-20 is for export, it’s very much China’s F-22 and I’m not suggesting that Russia should order them in any case. It’s however clear they could really order some frigates from China, even though Russia is very much a land power.

    Also, it’s quite noticeable that Russia is more “dependent” on exports for its military tech, for obvious reasons (of course their “brand” is stronger too). China doesn’t need to export any J-20s, but Russia is exporting like half of its annual Su-35 production and Su-57 is more or less immediately available for export as well (and these recent comments seem to suggest it’s somehow “mainly” for export, but I really don’t know what to make of them).

    It’s naturally hard to compare the two planes objectively, but both are likely to be quite similar in overall capabilities. That said, it’s becoming quite clear that the Chinese electronics industry is ahead of Russia (which is obvious), but that it includes the military as well (try to tell that to the Russian fanboys, though).

    A good example is that China already has numerous operational fighters with AESA-radars (J-10C, J-16 and J-20, atleast). Those limitations probably explain Russia’s problems with the Su-57 to an extent. The radar itself is ready and it’s capable, but the Russian industry is unable to manufacture them in numbers and that probably includes some other components as well.

    Yeah, I find it interesting that the Western sources are “suddenly” (?) more dismissive of the Su-57, I think that was not the case only a few years ago. Of course it makes sense, considering J-20 is actually operational and in production. But all those “memes” against the J-20 were more ridiculous than anything else I’ve seen. People still living in 1989, basically. How it’s a “copy” of both F-22 and F-35 simultaneously (you can even add a third plane: the MiG-1.44), even though it looks totally different from both, seemingly because 1. it’s Chinese, 2. it has… wings and 3. it’s stealthy.

    Lastly I’d like to point out that these media wars against stealth fighters are nothing new. Look at all the alt-media (and even mainstream!) articles and especially comments about the F-35. While the project and the plane itself is certainly flawed, many people really seem to believe that F-35 is literally the worst fighter plane ever. I’d like that to be true of course, but c’mon…

    Read More
    • Agree: Anatoly Karlin
    • Replies: @Mitleser

    It’s however clear they could really order some frigates from China, even though Russia is very much a land power.
     
    Why should they?
    There were already problems with Chinese-made ship engines in Russian navy ships.
    , @reiner Tor
    Couldn't maybe Russia help with something which the Chinese still cannot do (like a reliable jet engine or a good air defense system) and in exchange the Chinese would help Russian electronics development? Or maybe they could just ask the Chinese for a license.

    I thought that since Russia is getting pushed ever closer to China anyway, they might as well get more out of it. For example India bailed out of the Su-57 project, now it should be up for sale to Pakistan and China.
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  138. Mitleser says:
    @Kimppis
    Pride.

    Russian and American fanboys do have one thing in common: their strong dislike of Chinese technology, especially military. They are slowly starting to get it, but there's seriously like a lag time of 10 years, which is HUGE, when we're talking about modern China.

    I don't think J-20 is for export, it's very much China's F-22 and I'm not suggesting that Russia should order them in any case. It's however clear they could really order some frigates from China, even though Russia is very much a land power.

    Also, it's quite noticeable that Russia is more "dependent" on exports for its military tech, for obvious reasons (of course their "brand" is stronger too). China doesn't need to export any J-20s, but Russia is exporting like half of its annual Su-35 production and Su-57 is more or less immediately available for export as well (and these recent comments seem to suggest it's somehow "mainly" for export, but I really don't know what to make of them).

    It's naturally hard to compare the two planes objectively, but both are likely to be quite similar in overall capabilities. That said, it's becoming quite clear that the Chinese electronics industry is ahead of Russia (which is obvious), but that it includes the military as well (try to tell that to the Russian fanboys, though).

    A good example is that China already has numerous operational fighters with AESA-radars (J-10C, J-16 and J-20, atleast). Those limitations probably explain Russia's problems with the Su-57 to an extent. The radar itself is ready and it's capable, but the Russian industry is unable to manufacture them in numbers and that probably includes some other components as well.

    Yeah, I find it interesting that the Western sources are "suddenly" (?) more dismissive of the Su-57, I think that was not the case only a few years ago. Of course it makes sense, considering J-20 is actually operational and in production. But all those "memes" against the J-20 were more ridiculous than anything else I've seen. People still living in 1989, basically. How it's a "copy" of both F-22 and F-35 simultaneously (you can even add a third plane: the MiG-1.44), even though it looks totally different from both, seemingly because 1. it's Chinese, 2. it has... wings and 3. it's stealthy.

    Lastly I'd like to point out that these media wars against stealth fighters are nothing new. Look at all the alt-media (and even mainstream!) articles and especially comments about the F-35. While the project and the plane itself is certainly flawed, many people really seem to believe that F-35 is literally the worst fighter plane ever. I'd like that to be true of course, but c'mon...

    It’s however clear they could really order some frigates from China, even though Russia is very much a land power.

    Why should they?
    There were already problems with Chinese-made ship engines in Russian navy ships.

    Read More
    • Replies: @Kimppis
    Maybe they shouldn't and they probably won't, but I could see that one happening at this rate. Massive problems with any larger surface ships, especially if those reports about the last 2 Grigorovich-class ships are true (that they're going to be sold to India).

    Although now it seems that might not be the case, so maybe things aren't so dire after all, and I suppose it's quite likely that Russia's shipbuilding industry is going to improve considerably in the 2020s.
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  139. Kimppis says:
    @Mitleser

    It’s however clear they could really order some frigates from China, even though Russia is very much a land power.
     
    Why should they?
    There were already problems with Chinese-made ship engines in Russian navy ships.

    Maybe they shouldn’t and they probably won’t, but I could see that one happening at this rate. Massive problems with any larger surface ships, especially if those reports about the last 2 Grigorovich-class ships are true (that they’re going to be sold to India).

    Although now it seems that might not be the case, so maybe things aren’t so dire after all, and I suppose it’s quite likely that Russia’s shipbuilding industry is going to improve considerably in the 2020s.

    Read More
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  140. Mitleser says:

    The last time Russia bought major navy ships, they did not get them.

    Problem with Grigorovich-class are the reliance on sub-system from abroad.
    Lesson is buy even more from abroad?

    Read More
    • Replies: @Kimppis
    Those are very good points. (Well, atleast China is not a NATO or pro-US country.)

    As a positive, they are ordering some heavily armed corvettes (Project 20386 and Project 20385 and maybe others), which are arguably (light) frigates, in addition to the Grigorovich-class.
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  141. Kimppis says:
    @Mitleser
    The last time Russia bought major navy ships, they did not get them.

    Problem with Grigorovich-class are the reliance on sub-system from abroad.
    Lesson is buy even more from abroad?

    Those are very good points. (Well, atleast China is not a NATO or pro-US country.)

    As a positive, they are ordering some heavily armed corvettes (Project 20386 and Project 20385 and maybe others), which are arguably (light) frigates, in addition to the Grigorovich-class.

    Read More
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  142. @Kimppis
    Pride.

    Russian and American fanboys do have one thing in common: their strong dislike of Chinese technology, especially military. They are slowly starting to get it, but there's seriously like a lag time of 10 years, which is HUGE, when we're talking about modern China.

    I don't think J-20 is for export, it's very much China's F-22 and I'm not suggesting that Russia should order them in any case. It's however clear they could really order some frigates from China, even though Russia is very much a land power.

    Also, it's quite noticeable that Russia is more "dependent" on exports for its military tech, for obvious reasons (of course their "brand" is stronger too). China doesn't need to export any J-20s, but Russia is exporting like half of its annual Su-35 production and Su-57 is more or less immediately available for export as well (and these recent comments seem to suggest it's somehow "mainly" for export, but I really don't know what to make of them).

    It's naturally hard to compare the two planes objectively, but both are likely to be quite similar in overall capabilities. That said, it's becoming quite clear that the Chinese electronics industry is ahead of Russia (which is obvious), but that it includes the military as well (try to tell that to the Russian fanboys, though).

    A good example is that China already has numerous operational fighters with AESA-radars (J-10C, J-16 and J-20, atleast). Those limitations probably explain Russia's problems with the Su-57 to an extent. The radar itself is ready and it's capable, but the Russian industry is unable to manufacture them in numbers and that probably includes some other components as well.

    Yeah, I find it interesting that the Western sources are "suddenly" (?) more dismissive of the Su-57, I think that was not the case only a few years ago. Of course it makes sense, considering J-20 is actually operational and in production. But all those "memes" against the J-20 were more ridiculous than anything else I've seen. People still living in 1989, basically. How it's a "copy" of both F-22 and F-35 simultaneously (you can even add a third plane: the MiG-1.44), even though it looks totally different from both, seemingly because 1. it's Chinese, 2. it has... wings and 3. it's stealthy.

    Lastly I'd like to point out that these media wars against stealth fighters are nothing new. Look at all the alt-media (and even mainstream!) articles and especially comments about the F-35. While the project and the plane itself is certainly flawed, many people really seem to believe that F-35 is literally the worst fighter plane ever. I'd like that to be true of course, but c'mon...

    Couldn’t maybe Russia help with something which the Chinese still cannot do (like a reliable jet engine or a good air defense system) and in exchange the Chinese would help Russian electronics development? Or maybe they could just ask the Chinese for a license.

    I thought that since Russia is getting pushed ever closer to China anyway, they might as well get more out of it. For example India bailed out of the Su-57 project, now it should be up for sale to Pakistan and China.

    Read More
    • Replies: @Kimppis
    I really think the Russians are too "proud" to import any major systems from China, but they're indeed getting pushed closer and closer together, so something like that might be inevitable.

    But Russia is "running out of time" in a sense that after S-400 and maybe some additional Su-35s there will be hardly anything China will "need" from Russia (I don't think they really needed any Su-35s either) in the (near) future. In 10 years time China will certainly be 100% self- sufficient in military technology, period (actually, earlier than that).

    I very much doubt China, with its already operational J-20, will ever order any Su-57s and Pakistan seems to be interested in the J-31 project, they also seem to only operate lighter fighters.

    That really reminded me that there are hardly any major export markets left for the Su-57, if India really is totally out. It will certainly not become another Flanker (especially its Su-30 variants), the world has already changed too much.
    , @Mitleser

    For example India bailed out of the Su-57 project
     
    Not yet.

    NEW DELHI: India has conveyed to Russia its unwillingness to go ahead with the joint development of a fifth-generation fighter aircraft (FGFA) primarily due to the high cost involved in the project, official sources said, according to news agency PTI.

    They, however, said the negotiations between the two countries on the much ambitious project have not yet been shelved as India was ready to have a re-look at co-development of the jet if an appropriate cost-sharing formula between the two countries was arrived at.
     
    https://www.ndtv.com/india-news/india-reconsidering-rs-2-lakh-crore-5th-generation-fighter-jet-programme-with-russia-1879788

    Indians are still too greedy.

    It is learnt that India was insisting on equal rights over the technology to be used in the aircraft but Russia was not ready to share all the critical technologies of the plane with New Delhi.

    In the negotiations for the project, India had insisted that it must get all the required codes and access to critical technology so that it can upgrade the aircraft as per its requirements, sources said.
     
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  143. Kimppis says:
    @reiner Tor
    Couldn't maybe Russia help with something which the Chinese still cannot do (like a reliable jet engine or a good air defense system) and in exchange the Chinese would help Russian electronics development? Or maybe they could just ask the Chinese for a license.

    I thought that since Russia is getting pushed ever closer to China anyway, they might as well get more out of it. For example India bailed out of the Su-57 project, now it should be up for sale to Pakistan and China.

    I really think the Russians are too “proud” to import any major systems from China, but they’re indeed getting pushed closer and closer together, so something like that might be inevitable.

    But Russia is “running out of time” in a sense that after S-400 and maybe some additional Su-35s there will be hardly anything China will “need” from Russia (I don’t think they really needed any Su-35s either) in the (near) future. In 10 years time China will certainly be 100% self- sufficient in military technology, period (actually, earlier than that).

    I very much doubt China, with its already operational J-20, will ever order any Su-57s and Pakistan seems to be interested in the J-31 project, they also seem to only operate lighter fighters.

    That really reminded me that there are hardly any major export markets left for the Su-57, if India really is totally out. It will certainly not become another Flanker (especially its Su-30 variants), the world has already changed too much.

    Read More
    • Replies: @reiner Tor

    I don’t think they really needed any Su-35s either
     
    What I read recently is the following.

    The Chinese wanted to buy 24. Sukhoi wanted to sell 48 at a minimum, because they - rightly - suspected that the Chinese wanted to reverse engineer the technologies in it. Putin overrode them.

    It sounds really dumb that he didn’t ask for some technologies in exchange. Truly dumb.

    , @reiner Tor
    I think they might be able to sell it to countries like Iran or North Korea. But it would have serious foreign policy implications, so they probably won’t do that. They might sell some to the dumb Arabs (the Gulf countries). Later on the price tag might go down and a few buyers like Egypt might appear.

    Though it won’t do any good to sell these things to countries like Egypt. Anyone trying to reverse engineer them or just spy on Russian technology levels could probably bribe some Egyptian officials and get access to the plane.

    The truth is, long term Russia seems to be out. I suspect China will soon build up its own nuclear deterrent, and then Russia will slowly get downgraded from ally to satellite. Something like happened to Italy vis-à-vis Hitler, or the UK vis-à-vis the USA.
    , @Mitleser

    (I don’t think they really needed any Su-35s either) in the (near) future
     
    The Su-35s are among the best jets the PLA has.

    Hong Kong-based military monthly Kanwa Defense Review reported in February that the second batch of the highly maneuverable aircraft with thrust-vectoring engines had already descended on PLA airbases in southern China.

    Among those tipped as the likely locations to service and hangar the multi-role air-superiority fighters is the Suixi airbase in southern China’s Guangdong province, which is under the PLA’s Southern Theater Command.

    Several Su-35s joined the PLA’s recent circumnavigations of Taiwan and air patrols above the South China Sea, along with Su-30s, H-6K bombers and jammer aircraft.
     

    Citing sources within the Russian defense industry, the magazine noted that Su-35 producer Komsomolsk-on-Amur Aircraft Plant had been canvassing more orders after satisfactory feedback from the PLA about the speed and quality of the initial delivery batch.
     

    It’s also said that Beijing has made it clear that more orders can only come under the parameters of knowledge transfer and localized production of some sub-systems and avionics, a tried and true tactic to replicate overseas technologies for cheaper, home-made alternatives.

    Still, analysts say Russia may be willing to oblige now that there is a genuine rapport between the two powers, and a plethora of bilateral co-development and co-production of weapons and planes – ranging from cruise missiles to wide-body airliners – is also making headway.
     
    http://www.atimes.com/article/russian-su-35-fighters-rumored-join-plaaf/
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  144. @Kimppis
    I really think the Russians are too "proud" to import any major systems from China, but they're indeed getting pushed closer and closer together, so something like that might be inevitable.

    But Russia is "running out of time" in a sense that after S-400 and maybe some additional Su-35s there will be hardly anything China will "need" from Russia (I don't think they really needed any Su-35s either) in the (near) future. In 10 years time China will certainly be 100% self- sufficient in military technology, period (actually, earlier than that).

    I very much doubt China, with its already operational J-20, will ever order any Su-57s and Pakistan seems to be interested in the J-31 project, they also seem to only operate lighter fighters.

    That really reminded me that there are hardly any major export markets left for the Su-57, if India really is totally out. It will certainly not become another Flanker (especially its Su-30 variants), the world has already changed too much.

    I don’t think they really needed any Su-35s either

    What I read recently is the following.

    The Chinese wanted to buy 24. Sukhoi wanted to sell 48 at a minimum, because they – rightly – suspected that the Chinese wanted to reverse engineer the technologies in it. Putin overrode them.

    It sounds really dumb that he didn’t ask for some technologies in exchange. Truly dumb.

    Read More
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  145. @Kimppis
    I really think the Russians are too "proud" to import any major systems from China, but they're indeed getting pushed closer and closer together, so something like that might be inevitable.

    But Russia is "running out of time" in a sense that after S-400 and maybe some additional Su-35s there will be hardly anything China will "need" from Russia (I don't think they really needed any Su-35s either) in the (near) future. In 10 years time China will certainly be 100% self- sufficient in military technology, period (actually, earlier than that).

    I very much doubt China, with its already operational J-20, will ever order any Su-57s and Pakistan seems to be interested in the J-31 project, they also seem to only operate lighter fighters.

    That really reminded me that there are hardly any major export markets left for the Su-57, if India really is totally out. It will certainly not become another Flanker (especially its Su-30 variants), the world has already changed too much.

    I think they might be able to sell it to countries like Iran or North Korea. But it would have serious foreign policy implications, so they probably won’t do that. They might sell some to the dumb Arabs (the Gulf countries). Later on the price tag might go down and a few buyers like Egypt might appear.

    Though it won’t do any good to sell these things to countries like Egypt. Anyone trying to reverse engineer them or just spy on Russian technology levels could probably bribe some Egyptian officials and get access to the plane.

    The truth is, long term Russia seems to be out. I suspect China will soon build up its own nuclear deterrent, and then Russia will slowly get downgraded from ally to satellite. Something like happened to Italy vis-à-vis Hitler, or the UK vis-à-vis the USA.

    Read More
    • Replies: @Hyperborean

    The truth is, long term Russia seems to be out. I suspect China will soon build up its own nuclear deterrent, and then Russia will slowly get downgraded from ally to satellite. Something like happened to Italy vis-à-vis Hitler, or the UK vis-à-vis the USA.
     
    I think this is likely but I wonder if the Russia first confrontation strategy will endure or not as Russia's power relative to China wanes.

    I think the outcome to this is important in determining whether this is a bad thing or not.

    Trump's trade war might be a sign that the focus is changing, but given his heterodoxy and the way the established opinion-makers have condemned his trade war, perhaps not.
    , @Kimppis
    Probably didn't even cross his mind. There have been some rumours that the Chinese might order (atleast) additional 24 Su-35s, which sounds believable, because I'm not sure how much logistical sense it makes to have only 24, even though they have hundreds of different Flanker variants in service.

    Russia will probably have some export success with the Su-57, selling them to Arabs and possibly Iran, as you mentioned, as well as to Russia's CSTO/EEU allies and of course Vietnam and Algeria, but totally missing out on any Indian (and Chinese) orders is going to make a big difference.

    I wouldn't necessarily be that pessimistic, but Russia becoming "China's UK" sounds quite likely. It really is inevitable that China will totally dwarf Russia economically, even in PPP, when you realize that China is already something like 20-25% larger than the US!

    All of that was of course clear a while ago, but these delays and problems with the "next-gen" equipment really just makes it all the more obvious. That said, those recently unveiled "wonder weapons" look very interesting and they could certainly be "force multipliers" to an extent. It's however important to keep in mind that "silver bullets" don't really exist.
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  146. Mitleser says:
    @reiner Tor
    Couldn't maybe Russia help with something which the Chinese still cannot do (like a reliable jet engine or a good air defense system) and in exchange the Chinese would help Russian electronics development? Or maybe they could just ask the Chinese for a license.

    I thought that since Russia is getting pushed ever closer to China anyway, they might as well get more out of it. For example India bailed out of the Su-57 project, now it should be up for sale to Pakistan and China.

    For example India bailed out of the Su-57 project

    Not yet.

    NEW DELHI: India has conveyed to Russia its unwillingness to go ahead with the joint development of a fifth-generation fighter aircraft (FGFA) primarily due to the high cost involved in the project, official sources said, according to news agency PTI.

    They, however, said the negotiations between the two countries on the much ambitious project have not yet been shelved as India was ready to have a re-look at co-development of the jet if an appropriate cost-sharing formula between the two countries was arrived at.

    https://www.ndtv.com/india-news/india-reconsidering-rs-2-lakh-crore-5th-generation-fighter-jet-programme-with-russia-1879788

    Indians are still too greedy.

    It is learnt that India was insisting on equal rights over the technology to be used in the aircraft but Russia was not ready to share all the critical technologies of the plane with New Delhi.

    In the negotiations for the project, India had insisted that it must get all the required codes and access to critical technology so that it can upgrade the aircraft as per its requirements, sources said.

    Read More
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  147. @reiner Tor
    I think they might be able to sell it to countries like Iran or North Korea. But it would have serious foreign policy implications, so they probably won’t do that. They might sell some to the dumb Arabs (the Gulf countries). Later on the price tag might go down and a few buyers like Egypt might appear.

    Though it won’t do any good to sell these things to countries like Egypt. Anyone trying to reverse engineer them or just spy on Russian technology levels could probably bribe some Egyptian officials and get access to the plane.

    The truth is, long term Russia seems to be out. I suspect China will soon build up its own nuclear deterrent, and then Russia will slowly get downgraded from ally to satellite. Something like happened to Italy vis-à-vis Hitler, or the UK vis-à-vis the USA.

    The truth is, long term Russia seems to be out. I suspect China will soon build up its own nuclear deterrent, and then Russia will slowly get downgraded from ally to satellite. Something like happened to Italy vis-à-vis Hitler, or the UK vis-à-vis the USA.

    I think this is likely but I wonder if the Russia first confrontation strategy will endure or not as Russia’s power relative to China wanes.

    I think the outcome to this is important in determining whether this is a bad thing or not.

    Trump’s trade war might be a sign that the focus is changing, but given his heterodoxy and the way the established opinion-makers have condemned his trade war, perhaps not.

    Read More
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  148. Mitleser says:
    @Kimppis
    I really think the Russians are too "proud" to import any major systems from China, but they're indeed getting pushed closer and closer together, so something like that might be inevitable.

    But Russia is "running out of time" in a sense that after S-400 and maybe some additional Su-35s there will be hardly anything China will "need" from Russia (I don't think they really needed any Su-35s either) in the (near) future. In 10 years time China will certainly be 100% self- sufficient in military technology, period (actually, earlier than that).

    I very much doubt China, with its already operational J-20, will ever order any Su-57s and Pakistan seems to be interested in the J-31 project, they also seem to only operate lighter fighters.

    That really reminded me that there are hardly any major export markets left for the Su-57, if India really is totally out. It will certainly not become another Flanker (especially its Su-30 variants), the world has already changed too much.

    (I don’t think they really needed any Su-35s either) in the (near) future

    The Su-35s are among the best jets the PLA has.

    Hong Kong-based military monthly Kanwa Defense Review reported in February that the second batch of the highly maneuverable aircraft with thrust-vectoring engines had already descended on PLA airbases in southern China.

    Among those tipped as the likely locations to service and hangar the multi-role air-superiority fighters is the Suixi airbase in southern China’s Guangdong province, which is under the PLA’s Southern Theater Command.

    Several Su-35s joined the PLA’s recent circumnavigations of Taiwan and air patrols above the South China Sea, along with Su-30s, H-6K bombers and jammer aircraft.

    Citing sources within the Russian defense industry, the magazine noted that Su-35 producer Komsomolsk-on-Amur Aircraft Plant had been canvassing more orders after satisfactory feedback from the PLA about the speed and quality of the initial delivery batch.

    It’s also said that Beijing has made it clear that more orders can only come under the parameters of knowledge transfer and localized production of some sub-systems and avionics, a tried and true tactic to replicate overseas technologies for cheaper, home-made alternatives.

    Still, analysts say Russia may be willing to oblige now that there is a genuine rapport between the two powers, and a plethora of bilateral co-development and co-production of weapons and planes – ranging from cruise missiles to wide-body airliners – is also making headway.

    http://www.atimes.com/article/russian-su-35-fighters-rumored-join-plaaf/

    Read More
    • Replies: @Kimppis
    Oh, absolutely, probably their 2nd most capable jet after J-20s (J-10Cs with AESAs could be in many ways comparable, but they are of course much lighter), but that doesn't mean they particularly needed them. I mean the situation now is VERY different from the 90s and early 2000s, when the Chinese ordered Su-30s.
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  149. Kimppis says:
    @reiner Tor
    I think they might be able to sell it to countries like Iran or North Korea. But it would have serious foreign policy implications, so they probably won’t do that. They might sell some to the dumb Arabs (the Gulf countries). Later on the price tag might go down and a few buyers like Egypt might appear.

    Though it won’t do any good to sell these things to countries like Egypt. Anyone trying to reverse engineer them or just spy on Russian technology levels could probably bribe some Egyptian officials and get access to the plane.

    The truth is, long term Russia seems to be out. I suspect China will soon build up its own nuclear deterrent, and then Russia will slowly get downgraded from ally to satellite. Something like happened to Italy vis-à-vis Hitler, or the UK vis-à-vis the USA.

    Probably didn’t even cross his mind. There have been some rumours that the Chinese might order (atleast) additional 24 Su-35s, which sounds believable, because I’m not sure how much logistical sense it makes to have only 24, even though they have hundreds of different Flanker variants in service.

    Russia will probably have some export success with the Su-57, selling them to Arabs and possibly Iran, as you mentioned, as well as to Russia’s CSTO/EEU allies and of course Vietnam and Algeria, but totally missing out on any Indian (and Chinese) orders is going to make a big difference.

    I wouldn’t necessarily be that pessimistic, but Russia becoming “China’s UK” sounds quite likely. It really is inevitable that China will totally dwarf Russia economically, even in PPP, when you realize that China is already something like 20-25% larger than the US!

    All of that was of course clear a while ago, but these delays and problems with the “next-gen” equipment really just makes it all the more obvious. That said, those recently unveiled “wonder weapons” look very interesting and they could certainly be “force multipliers” to an extent. It’s however important to keep in mind that “silver bullets” don’t really exist.

    Read More
    • Replies: @Bliss

    Russia becoming “China’s UK” sounds quite likely. It really is inevitable that China will totally dwarf Russia economically
     
    Once Russia gets left far behind in the Arms Race it will be far more likely to seek an alliance, as junior partner, with the West, for racial and civilizational reasons. And also for reasons of survivability and self-respect.

    NATO could then be renamed the Northern Alliance for this alliance, still led by America, would occupy the entirety of Northernmost Eurasia and North America.

    China’s UK is far more likely to be a United Korea (UK).
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  150. Kimppis says:
    @Mitleser

    (I don’t think they really needed any Su-35s either) in the (near) future
     
    The Su-35s are among the best jets the PLA has.

    Hong Kong-based military monthly Kanwa Defense Review reported in February that the second batch of the highly maneuverable aircraft with thrust-vectoring engines had already descended on PLA airbases in southern China.

    Among those tipped as the likely locations to service and hangar the multi-role air-superiority fighters is the Suixi airbase in southern China’s Guangdong province, which is under the PLA’s Southern Theater Command.

    Several Su-35s joined the PLA’s recent circumnavigations of Taiwan and air patrols above the South China Sea, along with Su-30s, H-6K bombers and jammer aircraft.
     

    Citing sources within the Russian defense industry, the magazine noted that Su-35 producer Komsomolsk-on-Amur Aircraft Plant had been canvassing more orders after satisfactory feedback from the PLA about the speed and quality of the initial delivery batch.
     

    It’s also said that Beijing has made it clear that more orders can only come under the parameters of knowledge transfer and localized production of some sub-systems and avionics, a tried and true tactic to replicate overseas technologies for cheaper, home-made alternatives.

    Still, analysts say Russia may be willing to oblige now that there is a genuine rapport between the two powers, and a plethora of bilateral co-development and co-production of weapons and planes – ranging from cruise missiles to wide-body airliners – is also making headway.
     
    http://www.atimes.com/article/russian-su-35-fighters-rumored-join-plaaf/

    Oh, absolutely, probably their 2nd most capable jet after J-20s (J-10Cs with AESAs could be in many ways comparable, but they are of course much lighter), but that doesn’t mean they particularly needed them. I mean the situation now is VERY different from the 90s and early 2000s, when the Chinese ordered Su-30s.

    Read More
    • Replies: @Mitleser
    Yes, the situation is very different, but that does not mean they need them less.

    The ability of the PRC to supply their air force with combat jets has increased, but the same applies to the demand for such jets because of the escalating conflicts with USA and Japan.
    They can no longer hide their strength, bide their time, they need more combat jets that can dominate sky above the Chinese Seas.

    The red lines are the flight paths of PLAAF jets which caused the scramble of JASDF jets in 2016 and 2017.

    https://3.bp.blogspot.com/-JwUPttrEt5k/WO93gu6rkLI/AAAAAAAAEx8/eRtqlLjk0Y86eg1CgI3P-LsVLtnRBZnYwCLcB/s1600/scrambles03.jpg

    https://2.bp.blogspot.com/-MfJOdpeheSA/WtIAC2v7mBI/AAAAAAAAHVs/VzPLJ8_SQLAQxPYWxai2WrYrC7sw8fNVgCLcBGAs/s1600/FY2017scrambles3.jpg

    https://1.bp.blogspot.com/-BMm-Cqlniyo/WO93gcWF-KI/AAAAAAAAEx4/cXe1_rrzj9AM7oV0YSLH0Z45rt0HoIyigCLcB/s1600/scrambles02.jpg

    https://2.bp.blogspot.com/-bNOP-nQA94E/WtIAC9rij6I/AAAAAAAAHVo/wRIM4i8ZdpcZVWIDj5UTc7uskCzjVmv4QCLcBGAs/s1600/FY2017scrambles2.jpg

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  151. Mitleser says:
    @Kimppis
    Oh, absolutely, probably their 2nd most capable jet after J-20s (J-10Cs with AESAs could be in many ways comparable, but they are of course much lighter), but that doesn't mean they particularly needed them. I mean the situation now is VERY different from the 90s and early 2000s, when the Chinese ordered Su-30s.

    Yes, the situation is very different, but that does not mean they need them less.

    The ability of the PRC to supply their air force with combat jets has increased, but the same applies to the demand for such jets because of the escalating conflicts with USA and Japan.
    They can no longer hide their strength, bide their time, they need more combat jets that can dominate sky above the Chinese Seas.

    The red lines are the flight paths of PLAAF jets which caused the scramble of JASDF jets in 2016 and 2017.

    Read More
    • Replies: @Kimppis
    Yes, that's a very good point. They still need to replace hundreds of J-7s and J-8s and potentially some older Su-27 and J-11 variants as well.
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  152. Kimppis says:
    @Mitleser
    Yes, the situation is very different, but that does not mean they need them less.

    The ability of the PRC to supply their air force with combat jets has increased, but the same applies to the demand for such jets because of the escalating conflicts with USA and Japan.
    They can no longer hide their strength, bide their time, they need more combat jets that can dominate sky above the Chinese Seas.

    The red lines are the flight paths of PLAAF jets which caused the scramble of JASDF jets in 2016 and 2017.

    https://3.bp.blogspot.com/-JwUPttrEt5k/WO93gu6rkLI/AAAAAAAAEx8/eRtqlLjk0Y86eg1CgI3P-LsVLtnRBZnYwCLcB/s1600/scrambles03.jpg

    https://2.bp.blogspot.com/-MfJOdpeheSA/WtIAC2v7mBI/AAAAAAAAHVs/VzPLJ8_SQLAQxPYWxai2WrYrC7sw8fNVgCLcBGAs/s1600/FY2017scrambles3.jpg

    https://1.bp.blogspot.com/-BMm-Cqlniyo/WO93gcWF-KI/AAAAAAAAEx4/cXe1_rrzj9AM7oV0YSLH0Z45rt0HoIyigCLcB/s1600/scrambles02.jpg

    https://2.bp.blogspot.com/-bNOP-nQA94E/WtIAC9rij6I/AAAAAAAAHVo/wRIM4i8ZdpcZVWIDj5UTc7uskCzjVmv4QCLcBGAs/s1600/FY2017scrambles2.jpg

    Yes, that’s a very good point. They still need to replace hundreds of J-7s and J-8s and potentially some older Su-27 and J-11 variants as well.

    Read More
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  153. Bliss says:
    @Kimppis
    Probably didn't even cross his mind. There have been some rumours that the Chinese might order (atleast) additional 24 Su-35s, which sounds believable, because I'm not sure how much logistical sense it makes to have only 24, even though they have hundreds of different Flanker variants in service.

    Russia will probably have some export success with the Su-57, selling them to Arabs and possibly Iran, as you mentioned, as well as to Russia's CSTO/EEU allies and of course Vietnam and Algeria, but totally missing out on any Indian (and Chinese) orders is going to make a big difference.

    I wouldn't necessarily be that pessimistic, but Russia becoming "China's UK" sounds quite likely. It really is inevitable that China will totally dwarf Russia economically, even in PPP, when you realize that China is already something like 20-25% larger than the US!

    All of that was of course clear a while ago, but these delays and problems with the "next-gen" equipment really just makes it all the more obvious. That said, those recently unveiled "wonder weapons" look very interesting and they could certainly be "force multipliers" to an extent. It's however important to keep in mind that "silver bullets" don't really exist.

    Russia becoming “China’s UK” sounds quite likely. It really is inevitable that China will totally dwarf Russia economically

    Once Russia gets left far behind in the Arms Race it will be far more likely to seek an alliance, as junior partner, with the West, for racial and civilizational reasons. And also for reasons of survivability and self-respect.

    NATO could then be renamed the Northern Alliance for this alliance, still led by America, would occupy the entirety of Northernmost Eurasia and North America.

    China’s UK is far more likely to be a United Korea (UK).

    Read More
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  154. Bliss says:
    @Bliss
    Prediction for the France vs Croatia final:

    It will be an ugly match full of fouling and flopping and perhaps even fighting. Croatia will try to injure Mbappe, their biggest threat, and if they succeed and get away with it without a red card then all bets are off.

    Otherwise France wins.

    Damn, I was so wrong (except about the result).

    You got to love the Croats. They are warriors. And a class act.

    They played better for most of the game. Take away the penalty kick and the own goal and this game would have gone into overtime.

    Read More
    • Replies: @reiner Tor

    Take away the penalty kick and the own goal and this game would have gone into overtime.
     
    The third and fourth French goals were the result of them being in the lead and the Croats opening up a bit, desperately trying to score. Though in the alternate universe the second Croatian goal probably wouldn’t have happened either. The own goal came from a free kick which was awarded due to Griezmann diving, so double bad luck.

    Anyway, they played well even after being down three goals. The end result could have been different.
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  155. @Bliss
    Damn, I was so wrong (except about the result).

    You got to love the Croats. They are warriors. And a class act.

    They played better for most of the game. Take away the penalty kick and the own goal and this game would have gone into overtime.

    Take away the penalty kick and the own goal and this game would have gone into overtime.

    The third and fourth French goals were the result of them being in the lead and the Croats opening up a bit, desperately trying to score. Though in the alternate universe the second Croatian goal probably wouldn’t have happened either. The own goal came from a free kick which was awarded due to Griezmann diving, so double bad luck.

    Anyway, they played well even after being down three goals. The end result could have been different.

    Read More
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