Please note that my “Blackpill Timeline” is a what-if scenario, not a prediction.
While percentages for existing predictions will remain fixed, I reserve the right to add more predictions during the next couple of days.
- Oil prices (WTI Crude) are higher than $70: 50%
- BTC prices are higher than $4,000: 50%
- Russia’s GDP grows by 2.5%+: 50%
- USA’s GDP grows by 2.5%+: 50%
- Ukraine’s GDP grows by 3.5%+: 50%
- China’s GDP grows by 6.5%+: 50%
Science & Tech
- No new global temperature record: 60%.
- China will have more top 500 supercomputers than the US at the end of 2018: 90%
- Robust mouse rejuvenation does not happen: 95%
- Radical life extension does not happen: 99%
- Artificial General Intelligence or superintelligence do not happen: 99%
- There is no significant (>10 nukes) nuclear warfare: 99%
- Human civilization does not run into an existential risk (if it does, I will try my best to confirm it here before the Internet winks out): 99%
- US will not get involved in any new major war with a death toll of >50 US soldiers: 80%
- US strike on a North Korean missile base: 50%
- No major conflict on the Korean peninsula (>50 deaths): 90%
- No Korean War II with US/ROK ground invasion: 95%
- No major conflict between China and the US (>50 deaths) in East Asia/SE Asia: 95%
- No major conflict between China, and Vietnam or India (>50 deaths): 95%
- No major conflict (>50 deaths), except Donbass, in the former Soviet space: 90%
- There will not be a US strike on Iran: 90%
- No major (direct) conflict between Iran and the US (>50 deaths) in the Middle East: 95%
- No major conflict/US military intervention in Venezuela: 99%
Syrian Civil War (map right for reference purposes)
- The Syrian Civil War is still ongoing: 80%
- The city of Idlib is still under rebel control: 60%.
- Islamic State no longer controls any territory in Iraq and/or Syria: 90%
- US and its allies will not impose a no fly zone over Syria: 90%
- There will not be a major clash between the US and Russia over Syria (>3 fighters lost by either side): 90%
- Turkey will not “backstab” Russia and the Syrian government: 90%
- The cold war between Syria and the SDF does not turn hot: 80%
- Syria controls more territory at the end of 2018 than it does today today: 70%
- Syria still controls Aleppo: 90%
- Bashar Assad will remain President of Syria: 90%
War in Donbass
- War in Donbass doesn’t reignite: 70%
- CONDITIONAL: If it reignites, it will happen during or within a month of the FIFA World Cup: 70%
- Mariupol still under Ukraine control: 80%
- Dnepropetrovsk, Odessa, and Kharkov all still under central Ukrainian control: 95%
- Russia does not recognize the DNR, LNR, or some other de facto state formation within the Ukraine: 80%
- No “Putinsliv”/abandonment of Russian support for DNR/LNR, with the Ukraine recapturing Donetsk and Lugansk: 95%
- The Crimea remains Russian: 99%
- No further large scale civil wars/revolts/revolutions (>100 deaths) in Middle East/North African countries, apart from Iran and those already so afflicted: 70%
- No large scale civil wars/revolts/revolutions (>100 deaths) in China: 95%
- No large scale civil wars/revolts/revolutions (>100 deaths) in Iran: 50%
- The Iranian “regime” (defined as one based on wilayat-e faqih) will remain in place: 80%.
- Venezuela undergoes sovereign default: 70%.
- Nicolas Maduro remains leader of Venezuela: 60%.
- Kim Jong Un remains leader of North Korea: 90%
- Julian Assange still cooped up at the Ecuadorian Embassy: 80%
- US further expands Russia sanctions: 80%
- US does not relax or remove Russia sanctions: 90%
- EU further expands Russia sanctions: 50%
- EU does not relax or remove Russia sanctions: 80%
- Russia is not cut off from SWIFT: 90%
- No large scale civil wars/revolts/revolutions (>100 deaths) in Russia: 95%
- Putin wins the 2018 Russian Presidential elections: 99%
- Putin gets more than 80% in the Russian Presidential elections: 50%.
- Pavel Grudinin (KPRF) gets more than 7% in the Russian elections: 50%.
- Zhirinovsky (LDPR) gets more than 8% in the Russian elections: 50%.
- Zhirinovsky gets more votes than Pavel Grudinin: 60%
- Navalny is not allowed to run: 90%
- CONDITIONAL: If Sobchak is allowed to run, she gets more than 3% in the Russian elections: 50%.
- CONDITIONAL: If Navalny is allowed to run, he gets more than 8% in the Russian elections: 50%.
- Russian elections see record low turnout: 80%
- The Russian elections see more than 60% turnout: 50%
- Alexey Dyumin upgraded from governnorship of Tula oblast and given a significant position in the federal government: 60%
- Dmitry Medvedev continues as Prime Minister: 70%
- Alexey Ulyukaev gets a suspended sentence on appeal: 60%
- There will be at least 100 arrests in post-elections protests: 80%
- Putin remains Russian President at the end of the year: 90%
- Putin’s approval rating (Levada) is higher than 60% at year end: 50%
- There will be substantial (>10,000 in Moscow) anti-government protests in Russia: 80%
- There will be no be massive (>100,000 in Moscow) anti-government protests in Russia: 60%
- Even fewer Russians approve (Levada) of the United States at year end than they did this December (24%): 50%.
- Poroshenko remains in power: 90%
- The Ukraine does not undergo sovereign default: 95%
- Saakashvili extradited to Georgia: 70%
- No large scale civil wars/revolts/revolutions (>100 deaths) in USA: 95%
- Trump remains US President: 80%
- Trump’s approval rating (538) is higher than 32%: 50%
- Democrats will control the Senate: 50%
- Democrats will control the House: 60%
- Rex Tillerson no longer Secretary of State: 60%
- Jared Kushner no longer in the White House: 80%
- Hillary Clinton does not get prosecuted: 95%
- Freedom House lowers United States Freedom Rating [no longer think this will happen. But as promised, carried over as-is from last set of predictions; will know in early February]: 50%
- No large scale civil wars/revolts/revolutions in any EU country (>100 deaths): 95%
- No EU country schedules a referendum for EU exit in 2017: 90%
- No country leaves the Eurozone: 95%
- 5 Star Movement will win the Italian general elections: 60%.
- Fidesz wins a majority of seats in the 2018 Hungarian parliamentary elections: 95%
- Angela Merkel will no longer be German Chancellor: 60%.
- New Labour wins more than it loses in UK local elections: 70%.
- Catalonia will not be an independent state de facto or de jure: 95%
- No Islamic terrorist attack in Europe causing more than 100 deaths: 70%.
Culture & Human Interest
- Germany will not win the 2018 FIFA World Cup: 80%
- Russia will fail to advance past the group stage of the 2018 FIFA World Cup: 60%.
- Russia will not win the 2018 FIFA World Cup: 99%
- GRRM publishes Winds of Winter: 70%.
- UNQUANTIFIED: Daenerys dies, Theon lives (in the show):
- UNQUANTIFIED: Influence of the Alt Right declines.
- Mount & Blade: Bannerlord released: 80%
- Cyberpunk 2077 not released: 90%
- Sputnik and Pogrom above 1 million monthly visitors again as of November 2018 (SimilarWeb), despite it being blocked in Russia: 80%
- The Unz Review has more pageviews than in 2017: 80%.
- I will still be in Russia: 95%
- I will not be banned from Twitter or Facebook: 80%
- CONDITIONAL: Will have more than 5,000 followers on Twitter: 50%
- I will start work on a PhD: 60%
- Some significant health problems I have will not be resolved: 80%
- I will be in a long-term relationship: 60%
- I will not be engaged/married: 90%
- I will be living in another apartment in Moscow: 90%
- I will meet my savings target for 2018 (remont done; enough money to immediately pay off debts if I need to): 70%
- I will weigh 75kg at year end 2018: 50%
- I will not cardinally change my political positions (disavow Russian nationalism, support Navalny, etc.): 90%
- I will not get seriously drunk (throwing up) this year: 70%
- I will not take hard drugs this year: 90%
- I will not go skiing/snowboarding this year: 90%
- I will visit Romania: 80%
- I will visit Austria: 70%
- I will visit Czechia and/or Hungary: 50%
- I will visit the LDNR: 50%
- I will not visit the United Kingdom: 70%
- I will visit at least three Golden Ring cities in Russia: 50%
- I will visit Saint-Petersburg (Russia): 50%
- I will not visit Crimea (Russia): 80%
- I will not visit Portugal: 80%
- I will not visit non-European Russia: 90%
- I will not visit the United States: 95%
- I will not visit any other countries not mentioned here: 70%
- I will continue blogging: 95%
- I will continue blogging at The Unz Review: 90%
- I will not write a record amount of blog posts at The Unz Review (262+): 70%
- There will be more visits than in 2016: 70%
- There will be more pageviews than in 2016: 70%
- There will be more comments than in 2016: 60%
- I will write more than 30 posts for my akarlin.ru Russian blog: 50%
- I will write 20+ book reviews: 50%
- I will write 5+ film reviews: 50%
- I will write 5+ video game reviews: 50%
- I will have more than 3 new articles published at Sputnik and Pogrom: 50%
- ROGPR podcast will still be active and I will still be involved in it: 80%
- ROGPR podcast will have more than 20,000 subscribers on YouTube: 50%
- I will author or coauthor an academic paper: 95%
- I will author or coauthor two or more academic papers: 70%
- I will have published a book by Dec 31, 2017: 80%
- CONDITIONAL: If so, this will be my long planned book on Russia (Dark Lord of the Kremlin): 95%
- I will not have published two or more books by Dec 31, 2016: 60%
- CONDITIONAL: If so, this will be a development of my ideas in A Short History of the Third Millennium: 70%
- I will not get a RationalWiki “hagiography”: 60%
- I will not appear on Ukraine’s Peacekeeper list: 80%
PS. Note for future self: Tally correct/incorrect world and personal predictions separately; also combine and analyze them for the past several years.