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Russia Elections 2018: Navalny's Poll
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Navalny claimed that the state-owned pollsters VCIOM were artificially inflating Putin’s figures, so his Anti-Corruption Fund will start releasing their own weekly polls, the first of which has just been released in Navalny’s latest video address.

Reminder that Putin got 66% in the last FOM poll, and 73% in the last VCIOM poll.

FBK poll:

poll-fbk-elections-2018

Oops, what a fail: Putin still gets 62%.

poll-fbk-elections-2018-prediction

And this is their prediction, which accounts for undecideds, in which Putin gets 78% – which is, incidentally, perfectly in line with my own old-standing prediction.

Meanwhile, as per my last post, this confirms that Grudinin seems to have stopped making gains relative to Zhirinovsky in the past week, having instead merely converged with him.

 
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  1. So this indicates that Navalny’s poll is honest?

    Read More
    • Replies: @Singh
    Playing the long game means establishing institutional depth via resources + credibility।।



    Infiltration involves the enemy lowering his guard, Atm the objective is to create viable alternatives to w/e is under state control, thereby weakening unity IMO.

    In short yes it is 'honest' with dishonest intentions।।

    --
    Could be wrong in this case, but the principle is sound.

    The christian gave the Rus a princess before telling him to disregard his ancestor, for example.
    , @Anatoly Karlin
    Sure, why wouldn't it be?

    I wouldn't put falsifying polls beneath him (or beyond the state pollsters) but I don't think that this is something he'll do or is capable of doing even if he wanted to.
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  2. @AP
    So this indicates that Navalny's poll is honest?

    Playing the long game means establishing institutional depth via resources + credibility।।

    [MORE]

    Infiltration involves the enemy lowering his guard, Atm the objective is to create viable alternatives to w/e is under state control, thereby weakening unity IMO.

    In short yes it is ‘honest’ with dishonest intentions।।


    Could be wrong in this case, but the principle is sound.

    The christian gave the Rus a princess before telling him to disregard his ancestor, for example.

    Read More
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  3. @AP
    So this indicates that Navalny's poll is honest?

    Sure, why wouldn’t it be?

    I wouldn’t put falsifying polls beneath him (or beyond the state pollsters) but I don’t think that this is something he’ll do or is capable of doing even if he wanted to.

    Read More
    • Replies: @Singh
    Could you write a post commenting on Spandrell's Biological Leninsm, thoughts on it and how/why to counter it if you think so?

    Own reasons to counter it obviously come from a Dharmic Aryan Monarchic background whereby the King is made Like Indra by Consecration so obviously Benevolent Rule by the Gods is superior to Eunuch Bureaucracy||

    However, the details beside head chopping are best left to intellectuals like you||



    Destruction of ADharmics
    Defence of Cows (Innocent)

    https://i.imgur.com/1pG1LP5.jpg
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  4. In tangential news, Sobchak has no plans to go back to the stable after March.
    It seems there will be a new permanent fixture of ‘political-entertainment’.

    https://www.rbc.ru/politics/18/01/2018/5a60a5339a79471a1e71b7fa

    Read More
    ReplyAgree/Disagree/Etc. More... This Commenter Display All Comments
  5. Navalny, Grudin, Zhirinovasky, does anybody really care? I’ve got news for you Anatoly, it’s all a rigged game and everyone knows it. Add another 5 years on top of the already 20 years as the president/premier, and you’ve got a genuine ‘president for life’ (d______r). You can fill in the blanks.Posting one ridiculous thread after another discussing the sheer chimera of free elections in Russia is boring. Since the actual elections are a ways off yet, will we be subjected to another 157 posts of this type?

    Read More
    • Disagree: RadicalCenter, Kimppis
    • Replies: @Kimppis
    Like Erlander and Kekkonen, and many other "Western" leaders? Even then, his term as PM shouldn't really be included and he is going to retire at the age of around 70.

    And sure, because Putin isn't actually popular. That meme never gets old, huh. Just keep repeating it long enough... Western media's Russia coverage in a nutshell, really.

    , @gogis
    You need to be worried not about why Putin have no real competition, but why not a single western leader is good enough to be polled similarily.
    , @Swedish Family

    Posting one ridiculous thread after another discussing the sheer chimera of free elections in Russia is boring.
     
    Few people here are under any illusion that Russia is a well-functioning democracy, but these analyses are still good barometers of the state of Russia's civil society.
    ReplyAgree/Disagree/Etc. More... This Commenter This Thread Hide Thread Display All Comments
  6. @Mr. Hack
    Navalny, Grudin, Zhirinovasky, does anybody really care? I've got news for you Anatoly, it's all a rigged game and everyone knows it. Add another 5 years on top of the already 20 years as the president/premier, and you've got a genuine 'president for life' (d______r). You can fill in the blanks.Posting one ridiculous thread after another discussing the sheer chimera of free elections in Russia is boring. Since the actual elections are a ways off yet, will we be subjected to another 157 posts of this type?

    Like Erlander and Kekkonen, and many other “Western” leaders? Even then, his term as PM shouldn’t really be included and he is going to retire at the age of around 70.

    And sure, because Putin isn’t actually popular. That meme never gets old, huh. Just keep repeating it long enough… Western media’s Russia coverage in a nutshell, really.

    Read More
    ReplyAgree/Disagree/Etc. More... This Commenter This Thread Hide Thread Display All Comments
  7. @Mr. Hack
    Navalny, Grudin, Zhirinovasky, does anybody really care? I've got news for you Anatoly, it's all a rigged game and everyone knows it. Add another 5 years on top of the already 20 years as the president/premier, and you've got a genuine 'president for life' (d______r). You can fill in the blanks.Posting one ridiculous thread after another discussing the sheer chimera of free elections in Russia is boring. Since the actual elections are a ways off yet, will we be subjected to another 157 posts of this type?

    You need to be worried not about why Putin have no real competition, but why not a single western leader is good enough to be polled similarily.

    Read More
    • Replies: @Dmitry
    Well if you believe in the Sergei Guriev (who is on the run himself, so not necessarily our most disinterested witness), it's a matter of being (or at least providing convincing appearance of being) competent.

    http://www.nber.org/papers/w21136.pdf

    ReplyAgree/Disagree/Etc. More... This Commenter This Thread Hide Thread Display All Comments
  8. @Mr. Hack
    Navalny, Grudin, Zhirinovasky, does anybody really care? I've got news for you Anatoly, it's all a rigged game and everyone knows it. Add another 5 years on top of the already 20 years as the president/premier, and you've got a genuine 'president for life' (d______r). You can fill in the blanks.Posting one ridiculous thread after another discussing the sheer chimera of free elections in Russia is boring. Since the actual elections are a ways off yet, will we be subjected to another 157 posts of this type?

    Posting one ridiculous thread after another discussing the sheer chimera of free elections in Russia is boring.

    Few people here are under any illusion that Russia is a well-functioning democracy, but these analyses are still good barometers of the state of Russia’s civil society.

    Read More
    • Replies: @Chet Bradley

    Few people here are under any illusion that Russia is a well-functioning democracy
     
    Why don't you give us a definition of a well-functioning democracy, as well as some examples of the same?
    ReplyAgree/Disagree/Etc. More... This Commenter This Thread Hide Thread Display All Comments
  9. @Anatoly Karlin
    Sure, why wouldn't it be?

    I wouldn't put falsifying polls beneath him (or beyond the state pollsters) but I don't think that this is something he'll do or is capable of doing even if he wanted to.

    Could you write a post commenting on Spandrell’s Biological Leninsm, thoughts on it and how/why to counter it if you think so?

    Own reasons to counter it obviously come from a Dharmic Aryan Monarchic background whereby the King is made Like Indra by Consecration so obviously Benevolent Rule by the Gods is superior to Eunuch Bureaucracy||

    However, the details beside head chopping are best left to intellectuals like you||

    [MORE]

    Destruction of ADharmics
    Defence of Cows (Innocent)

    Read More
    • Agree: ussr andy
    ReplyAgree/Disagree/Etc. More... This Commenter This Thread Hide Thread Display All Comments
  10. @Swedish Family

    Posting one ridiculous thread after another discussing the sheer chimera of free elections in Russia is boring.
     
    Few people here are under any illusion that Russia is a well-functioning democracy, but these analyses are still good barometers of the state of Russia's civil society.

    Few people here are under any illusion that Russia is a well-functioning democracy

    Why don’t you give us a definition of a well-functioning democracy, as well as some examples of the same?

    Read More
    • Agree: Kimppis
    • Replies: @Swedish Family

    Why don’t you give us a definition of a well-functioning democracy, as well as some examples of the same?
     
    Definitions of what a democracy is and how it functions can be found all over the internet, so I would rather not. Russia's shortcomings, too, are well-documented by others (voter fraud, media bias, state-sponsored suppression of dissenting voices, etc.).

    Most northern and central European countries have been well-functioning democracies at one time or other, so any of those could serve as an example.
    ReplyAgree/Disagree/Etc. More... This Commenter This Thread Hide Thread Display All Comments
  11. @gogis
    You need to be worried not about why Putin have no real competition, but why not a single western leader is good enough to be polled similarily.

    Well if you believe in the Sergei Guriev (who is on the run himself, so not necessarily our most disinterested witness), it’s a matter of being (or at least providing convincing appearance of being) competent.

    http://www.nber.org/papers/w21136.pdf

    Read More
    ReplyAgree/Disagree/Etc. More... This Commenter This Thread Hide Thread Display All Comments
  12. @Chet Bradley

    Few people here are under any illusion that Russia is a well-functioning democracy
     
    Why don't you give us a definition of a well-functioning democracy, as well as some examples of the same?

    Why don’t you give us a definition of a well-functioning democracy, as well as some examples of the same?

    Definitions of what a democracy is and how it functions can be found all over the internet, so I would rather not. Russia’s shortcomings, too, are well-documented by others (voter fraud, media bias, state-sponsored suppression of dissenting voices, etc.).

    Most northern and central European countries have been well-functioning democracies at one time or other, so any of those could serve as an example.

    Read More
    • Agree: Mr. Hack
    • Replies: @Kimppis
    That is atleast partially or even largely propaganda, double standards and half-truths. Voter fraud is also so minimal compared to UR's popularity that it actually makes next to no difference.

    To Western media, other Duma parties don't count as the opposition, because they're not hostile enough to Russian establishment and to Putin. And of course its pure geopolitics, you obviously can't give legitimacy to Russian political system and its leadership.

    That doesn't matter in the US-aligned countries, though. All opposition parties there should be if not 100% friendly to the US, NATO and even EU, then certainly not ACTUALLY hostile to them or friendly to Russia, or even China. (There are arguably some small exceptions, but that seems to be the case in most countries.) What do you call that... an illusion of choice?

    So why should Russian opposition be friendly to the West? Why on earth should it be "pro-Western liberal" (if that is what you're saying)? If Navalvy is the "oppostion leader" in Russia, then American opposition leader is... Jill Stein? Or I think you have to go even "lower" than that?

    I don't deny that issues exist, and it's certainly somewhat uncertain what will happen after Putin (2022-24). However, as Karlin wrote a while ago, it seems that Russia's political system is becoming more like that of Singapore (what a failure) in some ways, in other words they're not even trying to become another "Western democracy." Then there's of course China, which seems to really need some "democracy" ASAP, right? (Of course, Russian and Chinese political systems are very different, so whatever...)

    , @melanf

    Russia’s shortcomings, too, are well-documented by others (voter fraud, media bias, state-sponsored suppression of dissenting voices, etc.).
     
    According to these parameters (if we take the real situation, not a propaganda fiction) Russia is not so very different from Western Europe or America (all of these vices are in Western Europe or America, maybe to a slightly lesser extent).

    A cardinal difference between Russia and "the West" in another - Тrump or Мacron can't announce himself as the God-Emperor. But Putin (if desired) can easily do. Democracy is in Russia (there is a free press, there are elections, there is opposition which wins the regional elections), but the majority of the population is absolutely indifferent to democracy. Because of this, democracy in Russia can be canceled in five minutes.
    , @Chet Bradley

    voter fraud, media bias, state-sponsored suppression of dissenting voices, etc.
     
    Voter fraud: plenty of that in the U.S., where I live. Don't know enough about other western democracies to comment.
    Media bias: everywhere in the west against the national/patriotic options.
    State-sponsored suppresion of dissenting voices: everywhere in the west against the national/patriotic options.

    Most northern and central European countries have been well-functioning democracies at one time or other
     
    At one time, yes. In the last few decades, not so much. Now all your elites are working against the interest of native populations and for the interests of hostile aliens and large corporations.

    How's that "well-functioning democracy" working out for you lately? Are you going to join the Swedish army units that your PM may have to send to fight immigrant gangs?
    ReplyAgree/Disagree/Etc. More... This Commenter This Thread Hide Thread Display All Comments
  13. @Swedish Family

    Why don’t you give us a definition of a well-functioning democracy, as well as some examples of the same?
     
    Definitions of what a democracy is and how it functions can be found all over the internet, so I would rather not. Russia's shortcomings, too, are well-documented by others (voter fraud, media bias, state-sponsored suppression of dissenting voices, etc.).

    Most northern and central European countries have been well-functioning democracies at one time or other, so any of those could serve as an example.

    That is atleast partially or even largely propaganda, double standards and half-truths. Voter fraud is also so minimal compared to UR’s popularity that it actually makes next to no difference.

    To Western media, other Duma parties don’t count as the opposition, because they’re not hostile enough to Russian establishment and to Putin. And of course its pure geopolitics, you obviously can’t give legitimacy to Russian political system and its leadership.

    That doesn’t matter in the US-aligned countries, though. All opposition parties there should be if not 100% friendly to the US, NATO and even EU, then certainly not ACTUALLY hostile to them or friendly to Russia, or even China. (There are arguably some small exceptions, but that seems to be the case in most countries.) What do you call that… an illusion of choice?

    So why should Russian opposition be friendly to the West? Why on earth should it be “pro-Western liberal” (if that is what you’re saying)? If Navalvy is the “oppostion leader” in Russia, then American opposition leader is… Jill Stein? Or I think you have to go even “lower” than that?

    I don’t deny that issues exist, and it’s certainly somewhat uncertain what will happen after Putin (2022-24). However, as Karlin wrote a while ago, it seems that Russia’s political system is becoming more like that of Singapore (what a failure) in some ways, in other words they’re not even trying to become another “Western democracy.” Then there’s of course China, which seems to really need some “democracy” ASAP, right? (Of course, Russian and Chinese political systems are very different, so whatever…)

    Read More
    ReplyAgree/Disagree/Etc. More... This Commenter This Thread Hide Thread Display All Comments
  14. @Swedish Family

    Why don’t you give us a definition of a well-functioning democracy, as well as some examples of the same?
     
    Definitions of what a democracy is and how it functions can be found all over the internet, so I would rather not. Russia's shortcomings, too, are well-documented by others (voter fraud, media bias, state-sponsored suppression of dissenting voices, etc.).

    Most northern and central European countries have been well-functioning democracies at one time or other, so any of those could serve as an example.

    Russia’s shortcomings, too, are well-documented by others (voter fraud, media bias, state-sponsored suppression of dissenting voices, etc.).

    According to these parameters (if we take the real situation, not a propaganda fiction) Russia is not so very different from Western Europe or America (all of these vices are in Western Europe or America, maybe to a slightly lesser extent).

    A cardinal difference between Russia and “the West” in another – Тrump or Мacron can’t announce himself as the God-Emperor. But Putin (if desired) can easily do. Democracy is in Russia (there is a free press, there are elections, there is opposition which wins the regional elections), but the majority of the population is absolutely indifferent to democracy. Because of this, democracy in Russia can be canceled in five minutes.

    Read More
    • Replies: @Swedish Family

    According to these parameters (if we take the real situation, not a propaganda fiction) Russia is not so very different from Western Europe or America (all of these vices are in Western Europe or America, maybe to a slightly lesser extent).
     
    Yes, indeed, that's why I wrote "at one time or other." A theory of mine is that, ever since the publication of Peter Pomerantsev's "Nothing Is True and Everything Is Possible," the Western elites have been busy introducing in their own countries those very practices they accuse Putin of. So we recently got our own Western "troll factory" in Riga (I think, or was it Vilnius?), aimed at Russian speakers, and such things as Correct the Record, a troll factory in all but name, aimed at conservative English speakers. We are also subjected to disinformation campaigns whenever our elites find it necessary, which is often.
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  15. How is the Euro media reacting to the shutdown?

    Read More
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  16. @Swedish Family

    Why don’t you give us a definition of a well-functioning democracy, as well as some examples of the same?
     
    Definitions of what a democracy is and how it functions can be found all over the internet, so I would rather not. Russia's shortcomings, too, are well-documented by others (voter fraud, media bias, state-sponsored suppression of dissenting voices, etc.).

    Most northern and central European countries have been well-functioning democracies at one time or other, so any of those could serve as an example.

    voter fraud, media bias, state-sponsored suppression of dissenting voices, etc.

    Voter fraud: plenty of that in the U.S., where I live. Don’t know enough about other western democracies to comment.
    Media bias: everywhere in the west against the national/patriotic options.
    State-sponsored suppresion of dissenting voices: everywhere in the west against the national/patriotic options.

    Most northern and central European countries have been well-functioning democracies at one time or other

    At one time, yes. In the last few decades, not so much. Now all your elites are working against the interest of native populations and for the interests of hostile aliens and large corporations.

    How’s that “well-functioning democracy” working out for you lately? Are you going to join the Swedish army units that your PM may have to send to fight immigrant gangs?

    Read More
    • Replies: @Swedish Family

    How’s that “well-functioning democracy” working out for you lately? Are you going to join the Swedish army units that your PM may have to send to fight immigrant gangs?
     
    This proposal has been misrepresented in international media. On clarifying his position, our PM said that the idea is for the military to relieve police officers on border-guard duty in case of emergency, thereby increasing the pool of available police officers. The military will never come into contact with rioters or gangs. I should point out, too, that this proposal was originally floated by the leader of Sweden's nationalist party, the Sweden Democrats, who in turn picked up the idea from Denmark, so it's actually a good example of democracy in action.
    ReplyAgree/Disagree/Etc. More... This Commenter This Thread Hide Thread Display All Comments
  17. @melanf

    Russia’s shortcomings, too, are well-documented by others (voter fraud, media bias, state-sponsored suppression of dissenting voices, etc.).
     
    According to these parameters (if we take the real situation, not a propaganda fiction) Russia is not so very different from Western Europe or America (all of these vices are in Western Europe or America, maybe to a slightly lesser extent).

    A cardinal difference between Russia and "the West" in another - Тrump or Мacron can't announce himself as the God-Emperor. But Putin (if desired) can easily do. Democracy is in Russia (there is a free press, there are elections, there is opposition which wins the regional elections), but the majority of the population is absolutely indifferent to democracy. Because of this, democracy in Russia can be canceled in five minutes.

    According to these parameters (if we take the real situation, not a propaganda fiction) Russia is not so very different from Western Europe or America (all of these vices are in Western Europe or America, maybe to a slightly lesser extent).

    Yes, indeed, that’s why I wrote “at one time or other.” A theory of mine is that, ever since the publication of Peter Pomerantsev’s “Nothing Is True and Everything Is Possible,” the Western elites have been busy introducing in their own countries those very practices they accuse Putin of. So we recently got our own Western “troll factory” in Riga (I think, or was it Vilnius?), aimed at Russian speakers, and such things as Correct the Record, a troll factory in all but name, aimed at conservative English speakers. We are also subjected to disinformation campaigns whenever our elites find it necessary, which is often.

    Read More
    • Replies: @melanf

    So we recently got our own Western “troll factory” in Riga
     
    It's hard for me to believe in the existence of "Troll factory"
    Given the current volume of online communication, a hypothetical "Troll factory" will have zero impact. Suppose the Russian government hired 100, maybe even 1000 trolls that 8 hours a day, write "Hilary - shit." These trolls have a challenge with 250 000 000 US Internet users (or similarly, American trolls have a challenge with 100 000 000 Russia Internet users). The influence of Russian (or American) trolls will eventually be equal to 0. Trying to influence the election by such "trolls" - it's the same as trying with a spoon of sugar to make the ocean water sweet.

    It is obvious that the elite of different countries are trying to manipulate people via the Internet, but obviously they must use other tools than useless "Troll factory"
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  18. @Chet Bradley

    voter fraud, media bias, state-sponsored suppression of dissenting voices, etc.
     
    Voter fraud: plenty of that in the U.S., where I live. Don't know enough about other western democracies to comment.
    Media bias: everywhere in the west against the national/patriotic options.
    State-sponsored suppresion of dissenting voices: everywhere in the west against the national/patriotic options.

    Most northern and central European countries have been well-functioning democracies at one time or other
     
    At one time, yes. In the last few decades, not so much. Now all your elites are working against the interest of native populations and for the interests of hostile aliens and large corporations.

    How's that "well-functioning democracy" working out for you lately? Are you going to join the Swedish army units that your PM may have to send to fight immigrant gangs?

    How’s that “well-functioning democracy” working out for you lately? Are you going to join the Swedish army units that your PM may have to send to fight immigrant gangs?

    This proposal has been misrepresented in international media. On clarifying his position, our PM said that the idea is for the military to relieve police officers on border-guard duty in case of emergency, thereby increasing the pool of available police officers. The military will never come into contact with rioters or gangs. I should point out, too, that this proposal was originally floated by the leader of Sweden’s nationalist party, the Sweden Democrats, who in turn picked up the idea from Denmark, so it’s actually a good example of democracy in action.

    Read More
    ReplyAgree/Disagree/Etc. More... This Commenter This Thread Hide Thread Display All Comments
  19. @Swedish Family

    According to these parameters (if we take the real situation, not a propaganda fiction) Russia is not so very different from Western Europe or America (all of these vices are in Western Europe or America, maybe to a slightly lesser extent).
     
    Yes, indeed, that's why I wrote "at one time or other." A theory of mine is that, ever since the publication of Peter Pomerantsev's "Nothing Is True and Everything Is Possible," the Western elites have been busy introducing in their own countries those very practices they accuse Putin of. So we recently got our own Western "troll factory" in Riga (I think, or was it Vilnius?), aimed at Russian speakers, and such things as Correct the Record, a troll factory in all but name, aimed at conservative English speakers. We are also subjected to disinformation campaigns whenever our elites find it necessary, which is often.

    So we recently got our own Western “troll factory” in Riga

    It’s hard for me to believe in the existence of “Troll factory”
    Given the current volume of online communication, a hypothetical “Troll factory” will have zero impact. Suppose the Russian government hired 100, maybe even 1000 trolls that 8 hours a day, write “Hilary – shit.” These trolls have a challenge with 250 000 000 US Internet users (or similarly, American trolls have a challenge with 100 000 000 Russia Internet users). The influence of Russian (or American) trolls will eventually be equal to 0. Trying to influence the election by such “trolls” – it’s the same as trying with a spoon of sugar to make the ocean water sweet.

    It is obvious that the elite of different countries are trying to manipulate people via the Internet, but obviously they must use other tools than useless “Troll factory”

    Read More
    ReplyAgree/Disagree/Etc. More... This Commenter This Thread Hide Thread Display All Comments

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