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Inconvenient Fact: 78% of DNR Fighters in 2014 Were Ukrainian Citizens
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One of the main thrusts of the Maidanist Ukrainian and Western information campaign against Russia during the Ukrainian conflict has beeen the allegation that the NAF (Novorossiyan Armed Forces) were mostly manned by Russian citizens or even the Russian military.

This is not to say that there haven’t been voices of dissent. For instance, Prof. Paul Robinson (and Russia blogger) has argued that 80-90% of NAF fighters were locals, while even The Times’ Russia/Ukraine correspondent Mark Franchetti confirmed in summer 2014 on the Shuster Show in Kiev that based on his observations Russians amongst the rebels were a decided minority – for which he was roundly booed by the Ukrainian audience.

However, thoughout the past two years, anyone making such claims in the West ran the risk of being branded as a Russian shill. Anyone making such claims in Ukraine itself ran the risk of actually being arrested and imprisoned for the crimes of “separatism” or “denying Russian aggression.”

It just so happens however that the basic truth of the arguments that Russian citizens constituted a decided minority of NAF fighters and consequently that the war in Donbass was primarily a Ukrainian civil war has recently been confirmed – and by an organization whose Ukrainian nationalist pedigree is unquestionable – the “Peacekeeper” website.

This Ukrainian government linked website’s most significant informational peremogas (victories) include publishing the personal details of anti-Maidan journalists, some of whom like Oles Buzina would soon after be murdered, and doxxing Russian airmen serving in Syria while calling for Islamic State to take care of them and their family “by the canons of sharia.” More recently, they published a list of Ukrainian and foreign journalists who had received accreditation from the DNR, naming them “scoundrels” and “collaborators” and listing their personal details (the list included such famous Kremlin propagandists as Simon Ostrovsky).

Three weeks ago, the Maidan’s telephone directory for assassins came out with its latest coup – a list of “fighters and mercenaries” recruited by the DNR during the summer of 2014.

But, hidden within this peremoga, there was an awful zrada (betrayal): As first calculated by Ivan Katchanovski, the data revealed that of the 1,572 recruits, some 78% of them were Ukrainian citizens – a good majority of whom were from Donbass. 19% were Russian citizens, 2% were citizens of other countries, and the rest had unknown citizenship. Bearing in mind the high intensity of personal and familial ties between the Donbass and the Russian Kuban inherited from Soviet days, the percentage of DNR fighters who are true “foreign adventurists” is probably closer to just 10%. This is less or even much less than in many armed conflicts that are incontrovertibly regarded as civil wars.

Of course Ukrainian coverage of this leak paid zero attention to the inconvenient question of national compositions, and Western coverage too singularly failed to latch on to it apart from a few geopolitically orientated and generally “Russophile” alt media sites and a couple of academics such as Ivan Katchanovski. These facts are however crucial to understanding the depth of local anger towards the Maidan regime in the Donbass and why the Kremlin will find it hard to “shove” it back into Ukraine even if it really wanted to.

 
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  1. Not that I care that much, but 20% of foreigners still seems like a lot.

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    • Replies: @Andrei Martyanov
    Those are not "foreigners" in Western sense. Russians, Ukrainians and Belorussians are intermixed greatly and, in effect, same people. Assuming 20% being Russian volunteers, the next question should be how many of those are Russian Ukrainians or Ukrainian Russians or what have you. Whole border areas between Russia and Ukraine are nothing more than huge collection of mixed marriages, families etc. Go figure who they are--Russians or Ukrainians.
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  2. Back in 2014, the NY Times ran an article by a couple of guys who had spent a few weeks with the anti-maidan militias – the only Anglosphere MSM journalists to do this AFIK. I can’t find it now.

    Anyway, they reported that the militia was overwhelmingly composed of locals.

    Read More
    • Replies: @Andrei Martyanov
    US has no concept of ethnicity as a foundation of nationality. Even communists knew and accepted that (Graph 5 in Soviet passports). In fact, English language has no distinction between Russkii and Rossiiskii, which are not the same. In English it is all Russian. Nationality in the US is a euphemism for citizenship.
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  3. Andrei Martyanov [AKA "SmoothieX12"] says: • Website
    @German_reader
    Not that I care that much, but 20% of foreigners still seems like a lot.

    Those are not “foreigners” in Western sense. Russians, Ukrainians and Belorussians are intermixed greatly and, in effect, same people. Assuming 20% being Russian volunteers, the next question should be how many of those are Russian Ukrainians or Ukrainian Russians or what have you. Whole border areas between Russia and Ukraine are nothing more than huge collection of mixed marriages, families etc. Go figure who they are–Russians or Ukrainians.

    Read More
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  4. Andrei Martyanov [AKA "SmoothieX12"] says: • Website
    @jimmyriddle
    Back in 2014, the NY Times ran an article by a couple of guys who had spent a few weeks with the anti-maidan militias - the only Anglosphere MSM journalists to do this AFIK. I can't find it now.

    Anyway, they reported that the militia was overwhelmingly composed of locals.

    US has no concept of ethnicity as a foundation of nationality. Even communists knew and accepted that (Graph 5 in Soviet passports). In fact, English language has no distinction between Russkii and Rossiiskii, which are not the same. In English it is all Russian. Nationality in the US is a euphemism for citizenship.

    Read More
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  5. Anonymous says: • Disclaimer

    A blogger posted my statistical analysis finding that 78% of new DNR fighters in summer of 2014 were Ukrainian citizens and 19% were Russian citizens. Even though he knew my Facebook post [May 6], he did not cite either my post as a source or my crucial reference about direct Russian military intervention in Donbas in the end of August 2014. His blog post is being disseminated by other online publications. I have no involvement in this blog post or its republications by other sites. I use my Facebook page to post my academic research findings, and they are open to anyone interested. I have no responsibility or any recourse other than blocking access to my Facebook page against such misuse of my research. I ask this blogger and other venues which republished his post to remove it and publish my statement.

    AK: My intention was not to rob Ivan Katchanovski of his precedence – if it was, why would I have mentioned his name (the only entity mentioned by name) in the last paragraph of what is a 500 word post? Regarding the exact percentages, I admit mea culpa in that I should have linked to his Facebook entry and emphasized his precedence (which I have done so now). The reason I did not do so from the start is pretty banal – with access to the Peacekeeper database being open, it was possible to confirm those percentages myself; having done this, it was late at night and I was in a hurry to finish the post, and linking his Facebook post must have slipped my mind – and is something I would have fixed as soon as I had the chance to reread it with fresh eyes. That said, I admit this was a serious oversight and I apologize to Katchanovski for it. I have published Katchanovski’s statement and my reply to it, but I don’t think there is a good case for removing the post now that it has been edited to explicitly confirm Katchanovski’s precedence in calculating the ethnic composition figures from the Peacekeeper dabatase.

    Read More
    • Replies: @reiner Tor

    my crucial reference about direct Russian military intervention in Donbas in the end of August 2014
     
    Anatoly has stated many times over his belief that there was a direct Russian military intervention in August 2014, without which the Donbas rebellion would have been crushed.
    , @jimmyriddle
    I sympathise. You don't want to appear on the Mirotvorets hit list website.
    , @Anonymous
    That is irresponsible, Mister Karlin.
    All world must have access to Mister Katchanovski's data inclusive his home address.
    Only total transparency creates total peace.
    , @Anatoly Karlin
    My intention was not to rob Ivan Katchanovski of his precedence – if it was, why would I have mentioned his name (the only entity mentioned by name) in the last paragraph of what is 500 word post? Regarding the exact percentages, I admit mea culpa in that I should have linked to his Facebook entry and emphasized his precedence (which I have done so now). The reason I did not do so from the start is pretty banal – with access to the Peacekeeper database being open, it was possible to confirm those percentages myself; having done this, it was late at night and I was in a hurry to finish the post, and linking his Facebook post must have slipped my mind – and is something I would have fixed as soon as I had the chance to reread it with fresh eyes. That said, I admit this was a serious oversight and I apologize to Katchanovski for it. I have published Katchanovski’s statement and my reply to it, but I don’t think there is a good case for removing the post now that it has been edited to explicitly confirm Katchanovski’s precedence in calculating the ethnic composition figures from the Peacekeeper dabatase.
    ReplyAgree/Disagree/Etc. More... This Commenter This Thread Hide Thread Display All Comments
  6. @Anonymous
    A blogger posted my statistical analysis finding that 78% of new DNR fighters in summer of 2014 were Ukrainian citizens and 19% were Russian citizens. Even though he knew my Facebook post [May 6], he did not cite either my post as a source or my crucial reference about direct Russian military intervention in Donbas in the end of August 2014. His blog post is being disseminated by other online publications. I have no involvement in this blog post or its republications by other sites. I use my Facebook page to post my academic research findings, and they are open to anyone interested. I have no responsibility or any recourse other than blocking access to my Facebook page against such misuse of my research. I ask this blogger and other venues which republished his post to remove it and publish my statement.

    AK: My intention was not to rob Ivan Katchanovski of his precedence - if it was, why would I have mentioned his name (the only entity mentioned by name) in the last paragraph of what is a 500 word post? Regarding the exact percentages, I admit mea culpa in that I should have linked to his Facebook entry and emphasized his precedence (which I have done so now). The reason I did not do so from the start is pretty banal - with access to the Peacekeeper database being open, it was possible to confirm those percentages myself; having done this, it was late at night and I was in a hurry to finish the post, and linking his Facebook post must have slipped my mind - and is something I would have fixed as soon as I had the chance to reread it with fresh eyes. That said, I admit this was a serious oversight and I apologize to Katchanovski for it. I have published Katchanovski's statement and my reply to it, but I don't think there is a good case for removing the post now that it has been edited to explicitly confirm Katchanovski's precedence in calculating the ethnic composition figures from the Peacekeeper dabatase.

    my crucial reference about direct Russian military intervention in Donbas in the end of August 2014

    Anatoly has stated many times over his belief that there was a direct Russian military intervention in August 2014, without which the Donbas rebellion would have been crushed.

    Read More
    ReplyAgree/Disagree/Etc. More... This Commenter This Thread Hide Thread Display All Comments
  7. @Anonymous
    A blogger posted my statistical analysis finding that 78% of new DNR fighters in summer of 2014 were Ukrainian citizens and 19% were Russian citizens. Even though he knew my Facebook post [May 6], he did not cite either my post as a source or my crucial reference about direct Russian military intervention in Donbas in the end of August 2014. His blog post is being disseminated by other online publications. I have no involvement in this blog post or its republications by other sites. I use my Facebook page to post my academic research findings, and they are open to anyone interested. I have no responsibility or any recourse other than blocking access to my Facebook page against such misuse of my research. I ask this blogger and other venues which republished his post to remove it and publish my statement.

    AK: My intention was not to rob Ivan Katchanovski of his precedence - if it was, why would I have mentioned his name (the only entity mentioned by name) in the last paragraph of what is a 500 word post? Regarding the exact percentages, I admit mea culpa in that I should have linked to his Facebook entry and emphasized his precedence (which I have done so now). The reason I did not do so from the start is pretty banal - with access to the Peacekeeper database being open, it was possible to confirm those percentages myself; having done this, it was late at night and I was in a hurry to finish the post, and linking his Facebook post must have slipped my mind - and is something I would have fixed as soon as I had the chance to reread it with fresh eyes. That said, I admit this was a serious oversight and I apologize to Katchanovski for it. I have published Katchanovski's statement and my reply to it, but I don't think there is a good case for removing the post now that it has been edited to explicitly confirm Katchanovski's precedence in calculating the ethnic composition figures from the Peacekeeper dabatase.

    I sympathise. You don’t want to appear on the Mirotvorets hit list website.

    Read More
    • Replies: @reiner Tor
    When searching for Dr. Katchanovski's FB page, I found a page accusing him of being a tool of the Kremlin...
    ReplyAgree/Disagree/Etc. More... This Commenter This Thread Hide Thread Display All Comments
  8. Anonymous says: • Disclaimer
    @Anonymous
    A blogger posted my statistical analysis finding that 78% of new DNR fighters in summer of 2014 were Ukrainian citizens and 19% were Russian citizens. Even though he knew my Facebook post [May 6], he did not cite either my post as a source or my crucial reference about direct Russian military intervention in Donbas in the end of August 2014. His blog post is being disseminated by other online publications. I have no involvement in this blog post or its republications by other sites. I use my Facebook page to post my academic research findings, and they are open to anyone interested. I have no responsibility or any recourse other than blocking access to my Facebook page against such misuse of my research. I ask this blogger and other venues which republished his post to remove it and publish my statement.

    AK: My intention was not to rob Ivan Katchanovski of his precedence - if it was, why would I have mentioned his name (the only entity mentioned by name) in the last paragraph of what is a 500 word post? Regarding the exact percentages, I admit mea culpa in that I should have linked to his Facebook entry and emphasized his precedence (which I have done so now). The reason I did not do so from the start is pretty banal - with access to the Peacekeeper database being open, it was possible to confirm those percentages myself; having done this, it was late at night and I was in a hurry to finish the post, and linking his Facebook post must have slipped my mind - and is something I would have fixed as soon as I had the chance to reread it with fresh eyes. That said, I admit this was a serious oversight and I apologize to Katchanovski for it. I have published Katchanovski's statement and my reply to it, but I don't think there is a good case for removing the post now that it has been edited to explicitly confirm Katchanovski's precedence in calculating the ethnic composition figures from the Peacekeeper dabatase.

    That is irresponsible, Mister Karlin.
    All world must have access to Mister Katchanovski’s data inclusive his home address.
    Only total transparency creates total peace.

    Read More
    ReplyAgree/Disagree/Etc. More... This Commenter This Thread Hide Thread Display All Comments
  9. Very interesting. Respectfully however, I think that you are making more out of this than is actually warranted for several reasons.
    First, when supporting a side in a conflict, the US and Russia have a long tradition of sending equipment rather that manpower for obvious reasons. In comparison to conflicts like Vietnam or Syria, 10% Russian manpower in a “foreign” conflict seems absurdly high. No, 10% does not by any mean allow one to say that the DNR fighters are entirely or even mostly Russian, but the fact that the percentage is so high compared to past Russian military endeavors is, I believe, a valid point one can make.

    Secondly, I think it is quite likely that although the percentage of Russian fighters might be as low as 10%, that 10% would make up the most effective units with the most training and best weapons. By a large margin. If that 10% was irrelevant militarily, why would Russia pay the money and political cost of sending it?

    Finally, do you have any evidence that the recruitment during this period of time was representative of the time period before or after?

    Read More
    • Replies: @Glossy
    The Novorossiyan volunteers were motivated by a variety of ideologies. One of the most prominent ones was Russian nationalism, which views Ukrainians and Belorussians as Russians who were temporarily separated from Russia by Russia's enemies. Nostalgia for the USSR motivated some too. Those people did not consider Ukrainian statehood legitimate either.

    Some of the Russian volunteers went there to help their fellow Russians come back to Russia.

    The Russian-Ukrainian relationship is really, really unlike the Soviet-Vietnamese or the Russian-Syrian relationship. The question of whether or not the Ukraine is REALLY a foreign nation isn't quite settled in Russia. The Maidan coup, the Novorossian revolt, the US and Russian support for the warring sides were attempts to settle it.

    The Ukraine is a state, but are Ukrainians a nation? Western Ukrainians are at this point, and Maidanites are trying to enroll southeastern Ukrainians into that nation. But there are people in Russia who want to prevent that, who want to help southeastern Ukrainians maintain their Russian and Ukrainian-as-a-subset-of-Russian identities.

    You can't really compare that situation with a far-away war like Vietnam or Syria or Afghanistan.

    , @Mitleser
    You are missing the fact that the rebellion was not a Russian military operation which makes comparison with Vietnam or Syria at best questionable.
    These people joined the Donbass rebels out of idealism and the wish to fight, not because their government wanted them to. Many were opposed to the Russian government.
    , @Glossy
    "Finally, do you have any evidence that the recruitment during this period of time was representative of the time period before or after?"

    In the summer of 2014 the locals weren't paid for serving in the Novorossian Armed Forces yet. I think that only started towards the end of that year. So when that info was collected, the volunteerism was of the purest sort.

    Since then a professional army was created in Novorossiya. With salaries. And the junta did everything it could to destroy the region's economy. They literally bombed factories and coal mining facilities. This made serving in the army financially attractive, which it wasn't when that report was made. So I would think that the percentage of the locals in NAF would have gone up since then.
    ReplyAgree/Disagree/Etc. More... This Commenter This Thread Hide Thread Display All Comments
  10. @jimmyriddle
    I sympathise. You don't want to appear on the Mirotvorets hit list website.

    When searching for Dr. Katchanovski’s FB page, I found a page accusing him of being a tool of the Kremlin…

    Read More
    ReplyAgree/Disagree/Etc. More... This Commenter This Thread Hide Thread Display All Comments
  11. Glossy says: • Website
    @NuclearLabRat
    Very interesting. Respectfully however, I think that you are making more out of this than is actually warranted for several reasons.
    First, when supporting a side in a conflict, the US and Russia have a long tradition of sending equipment rather that manpower for obvious reasons. In comparison to conflicts like Vietnam or Syria, 10% Russian manpower in a "foreign" conflict seems absurdly high. No, 10% does not by any mean allow one to say that the DNR fighters are entirely or even mostly Russian, but the fact that the percentage is so high compared to past Russian military endeavors is, I believe, a valid point one can make.

    Secondly, I think it is quite likely that although the percentage of Russian fighters might be as low as 10%, that 10% would make up the most effective units with the most training and best weapons. By a large margin. If that 10% was irrelevant militarily, why would Russia pay the money and political cost of sending it?

    Finally, do you have any evidence that the recruitment during this period of time was representative of the time period before or after?

    The Novorossiyan volunteers were motivated by a variety of ideologies. One of the most prominent ones was Russian nationalism, which views Ukrainians and Belorussians as Russians who were temporarily separated from Russia by Russia’s enemies. Nostalgia for the USSR motivated some too. Those people did not consider Ukrainian statehood legitimate either.

    Some of the Russian volunteers went there to help their fellow Russians come back to Russia.

    The Russian-Ukrainian relationship is really, really unlike the Soviet-Vietnamese or the Russian-Syrian relationship. The question of whether or not the Ukraine is REALLY a foreign nation isn’t quite settled in Russia. The Maidan coup, the Novorossian revolt, the US and Russian support for the warring sides were attempts to settle it.

    The Ukraine is a state, but are Ukrainians a nation? Western Ukrainians are at this point, and Maidanites are trying to enroll southeastern Ukrainians into that nation. But there are people in Russia who want to prevent that, who want to help southeastern Ukrainians maintain their Russian and Ukrainian-as-a-subset-of-Russian identities.

    You can’t really compare that situation with a far-away war like Vietnam or Syria or Afghanistan.

    Read More
    • Replies: @Glossy
    The fancy term for what I was trying to describe here is irredentism.
    ReplyAgree/Disagree/Etc. More... This Commenter This Thread Hide Thread Display All Comments
  12. Mitleser says:
    @NuclearLabRat
    Very interesting. Respectfully however, I think that you are making more out of this than is actually warranted for several reasons.
    First, when supporting a side in a conflict, the US and Russia have a long tradition of sending equipment rather that manpower for obvious reasons. In comparison to conflicts like Vietnam or Syria, 10% Russian manpower in a "foreign" conflict seems absurdly high. No, 10% does not by any mean allow one to say that the DNR fighters are entirely or even mostly Russian, but the fact that the percentage is so high compared to past Russian military endeavors is, I believe, a valid point one can make.

    Secondly, I think it is quite likely that although the percentage of Russian fighters might be as low as 10%, that 10% would make up the most effective units with the most training and best weapons. By a large margin. If that 10% was irrelevant militarily, why would Russia pay the money and political cost of sending it?

    Finally, do you have any evidence that the recruitment during this period of time was representative of the time period before or after?

    You are missing the fact that the rebellion was not a Russian military operation which makes comparison with Vietnam or Syria at best questionable.
    These people joined the Donbass rebels out of idealism and the wish to fight, not because their government wanted them to. Many were opposed to the Russian government.

    Read More
    ReplyAgree/Disagree/Etc. More... This Commenter This Thread Hide Thread Display All Comments
  13. Glossy says: • Website
    @Glossy
    The Novorossiyan volunteers were motivated by a variety of ideologies. One of the most prominent ones was Russian nationalism, which views Ukrainians and Belorussians as Russians who were temporarily separated from Russia by Russia's enemies. Nostalgia for the USSR motivated some too. Those people did not consider Ukrainian statehood legitimate either.

    Some of the Russian volunteers went there to help their fellow Russians come back to Russia.

    The Russian-Ukrainian relationship is really, really unlike the Soviet-Vietnamese or the Russian-Syrian relationship. The question of whether or not the Ukraine is REALLY a foreign nation isn't quite settled in Russia. The Maidan coup, the Novorossian revolt, the US and Russian support for the warring sides were attempts to settle it.

    The Ukraine is a state, but are Ukrainians a nation? Western Ukrainians are at this point, and Maidanites are trying to enroll southeastern Ukrainians into that nation. But there are people in Russia who want to prevent that, who want to help southeastern Ukrainians maintain their Russian and Ukrainian-as-a-subset-of-Russian identities.

    You can't really compare that situation with a far-away war like Vietnam or Syria or Afghanistan.

    The fancy term for what I was trying to describe here is irredentism.

    Read More
    ReplyAgree/Disagree/Etc. More... This Commenter This Thread Hide Thread Display All Comments
  14. Glossy says: • Website
    @NuclearLabRat
    Very interesting. Respectfully however, I think that you are making more out of this than is actually warranted for several reasons.
    First, when supporting a side in a conflict, the US and Russia have a long tradition of sending equipment rather that manpower for obvious reasons. In comparison to conflicts like Vietnam or Syria, 10% Russian manpower in a "foreign" conflict seems absurdly high. No, 10% does not by any mean allow one to say that the DNR fighters are entirely or even mostly Russian, but the fact that the percentage is so high compared to past Russian military endeavors is, I believe, a valid point one can make.

    Secondly, I think it is quite likely that although the percentage of Russian fighters might be as low as 10%, that 10% would make up the most effective units with the most training and best weapons. By a large margin. If that 10% was irrelevant militarily, why would Russia pay the money and political cost of sending it?

    Finally, do you have any evidence that the recruitment during this period of time was representative of the time period before or after?

    “Finally, do you have any evidence that the recruitment during this period of time was representative of the time period before or after?”

    In the summer of 2014 the locals weren’t paid for serving in the Novorossian Armed Forces yet. I think that only started towards the end of that year. So when that info was collected, the volunteerism was of the purest sort.

    Since then a professional army was created in Novorossiya. With salaries. And the junta did everything it could to destroy the region’s economy. They literally bombed factories and coal mining facilities. This made serving in the army financially attractive, which it wasn’t when that report was made. So I would think that the percentage of the locals in NAF would have gone up since then.

    Read More
    ReplyAgree/Disagree/Etc. More... This Commenter This Thread Hide Thread Display All Comments
  15. AP says:

    As others have pointed out, 19% being Russians is a large number. Furthermore, these may have been some of the best troops – Russians who had extensive combat experience in Chechnya, for example. They also included some of the most important leaders – such as Girkin/Strelkov, who led the uprising in the beginning (born in Moscow, veteran of Transnistria and the Chechen wars), Arseny Pavlov, etc.

    It is quite possible that if not for these 19%, the war would have ended quickly and there would have been thousands fewer dead.

    Read More
    • Replies: @Anatoly Karlin
    I think that's unlikely. They might have made a cardinal difference if #PutinVvediVoiska (Putin bring in the troops) had happened and the Russian military had gone on to exploit Strelkov & Co.'s outpost in Slavyansk (an important transportation juncture); as it was, they had to retreat, and almost all the militias' actions ended up being defensive, which doesn't require near as much as coordination and skill as offensive operations. Of course the limited Russian intervention in August was absolutely crucial.
    , @RadicalCenter
    Or, if the people of the region had been allowed to hold an internationally monitored referendum, they could have peacefully voted -- oblast by oblast -- on whether to secede from Ukraine, and then on whether to become independent or join the Russian Federation.

    That also would have led to "thousands fewer dead."

    But it also likely would have led to two or three oblasty, at least, voting to leave Ukraine and join Russia, and we can't have that, now can we. I'm not sure exactly why we can't have that, but people like you keep telling me so.
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  16. @Anonymous
    A blogger posted my statistical analysis finding that 78% of new DNR fighters in summer of 2014 were Ukrainian citizens and 19% were Russian citizens. Even though he knew my Facebook post [May 6], he did not cite either my post as a source or my crucial reference about direct Russian military intervention in Donbas in the end of August 2014. His blog post is being disseminated by other online publications. I have no involvement in this blog post or its republications by other sites. I use my Facebook page to post my academic research findings, and they are open to anyone interested. I have no responsibility or any recourse other than blocking access to my Facebook page against such misuse of my research. I ask this blogger and other venues which republished his post to remove it and publish my statement.

    AK: My intention was not to rob Ivan Katchanovski of his precedence - if it was, why would I have mentioned his name (the only entity mentioned by name) in the last paragraph of what is a 500 word post? Regarding the exact percentages, I admit mea culpa in that I should have linked to his Facebook entry and emphasized his precedence (which I have done so now). The reason I did not do so from the start is pretty banal - with access to the Peacekeeper database being open, it was possible to confirm those percentages myself; having done this, it was late at night and I was in a hurry to finish the post, and linking his Facebook post must have slipped my mind - and is something I would have fixed as soon as I had the chance to reread it with fresh eyes. That said, I admit this was a serious oversight and I apologize to Katchanovski for it. I have published Katchanovski's statement and my reply to it, but I don't think there is a good case for removing the post now that it has been edited to explicitly confirm Katchanovski's precedence in calculating the ethnic composition figures from the Peacekeeper dabatase.

    My intention was not to rob Ivan Katchanovski of his precedence – if it was, why would I have mentioned his name (the only entity mentioned by name) in the last paragraph of what is 500 word post? Regarding the exact percentages, I admit mea culpa in that I should have linked to his Facebook entry and emphasized his precedence (which I have done so now). The reason I did not do so from the start is pretty banal – with access to the Peacekeeper database being open, it was possible to confirm those percentages myself; having done this, it was late at night and I was in a hurry to finish the post, and linking his Facebook post must have slipped my mind – and is something I would have fixed as soon as I had the chance to reread it with fresh eyes. That said, I admit this was a serious oversight and I apologize to Katchanovski for it. I have published Katchanovski’s statement and my reply to it, but I don’t think there is a good case for removing the post now that it has been edited to explicitly confirm Katchanovski’s precedence in calculating the ethnic composition figures from the Peacekeeper dabatase.

    Read More
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  17. @AP
    As others have pointed out, 19% being Russians is a large number. Furthermore, these may have been some of the best troops - Russians who had extensive combat experience in Chechnya, for example. They also included some of the most important leaders - such as Girkin/Strelkov, who led the uprising in the beginning (born in Moscow, veteran of Transnistria and the Chechen wars), Arseny Pavlov, etc.

    It is quite possible that if not for these 19%, the war would have ended quickly and there would have been thousands fewer dead.

    I think that’s unlikely. They might have made a cardinal difference if #PutinVvediVoiska (Putin bring in the troops) had happened and the Russian military had gone on to exploit Strelkov & Co.’s outpost in Slavyansk (an important transportation juncture); as it was, they had to retreat, and almost all the militias’ actions ended up being defensive, which doesn’t require near as much as coordination and skill as offensive operations. Of course the limited Russian intervention in August was absolutely crucial.

    Read More
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  18. inertial says:

    Two years ago I wanted a YouTube interview with one of the rebels, some sort of a squad commander. The whole interview was about 3 minutes long – this was not a man of many words.

    He was asked where he was from and he said Moscow. He heard the call, found the recruitment office, and few days later he was in Donetsk. Looks like one of those Russian mercenaries, right? Sure, except he was speaking with almost comically heavy local accent.

    Read More
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  19. inertial says:

    Also, I wonder how many of those Russian rebels were Don Cossacks. Formally, they may be foreigners but Donetsk and Lugansk regions are historically their land.

    Read More
    • Replies: @Cagey Beast
    You reminded me of this video from 2yrs ago:

    https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=SyO33m4b_nQ

    It's just 4mins of a march past by Don Cossacks heading off to fight but it gives a good idea of what a mixed bag of guys they had. Sad to think more than a few of them are dead now.
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  20. anonymous says: • Disclaimer

    Whether the percent was high or low, the main thing is that the people of the region were able to free themselves from the shackles of the Ukrainian regime. The violence at the Trades Union House where almost fifty people were either burned or beaten to death showed very starkly what swine the regime leaders and their armed gangs really are. After something like that there’s just no reasoning or negotiation possible with such people. It’s just a fact that people often can’t liberate themselves without some outside assistance and fortunately some help did arrive.

    Read More
    • Replies: @AP

    The violence at the Trades Union House where almost fifty people were either burned or beaten to death showed very starkly what swine the regime leaders and their armed gangs really are
     
    That's why you've got to start and prolong a war with 10,000 dead civilians. To prevent a one-time crime of 50 dead. Sounds reasonable and heroic.
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  21. @AP
    As others have pointed out, 19% being Russians is a large number. Furthermore, these may have been some of the best troops - Russians who had extensive combat experience in Chechnya, for example. They also included some of the most important leaders - such as Girkin/Strelkov, who led the uprising in the beginning (born in Moscow, veteran of Transnistria and the Chechen wars), Arseny Pavlov, etc.

    It is quite possible that if not for these 19%, the war would have ended quickly and there would have been thousands fewer dead.

    Or, if the people of the region had been allowed to hold an internationally monitored referendum, they could have peacefully voted — oblast by oblast — on whether to secede from Ukraine, and then on whether to become independent or join the Russian Federation.

    That also would have led to “thousands fewer dead.”

    But it also likely would have led to two or three oblasty, at least, voting to leave Ukraine and join Russia, and we can’t have that, now can we. I’m not sure exactly why we can’t have that, but people like you keep telling me so.

    Read More
    • Replies: @AP
    Would you also support similar referendums now and in the future in the American Southwest? It's what the local majority wants, right? How about Russia? Automatic EU prospects for an independent Kaliningrad might be tempting. Or is only Ukraine's territory up for grabs.

    That being said, I would not have been opposed to some form of official mechanism for separatism. It would have involved separatist parties being voted into power in local elections, then a referendum being organized and monitored by those parties. Not armed political marginals led by foreign citizens seizing buildings and declaring separation. Any country would have the right to fight such on their territory.
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  22. AP says:
    @RadicalCenter
    Or, if the people of the region had been allowed to hold an internationally monitored referendum, they could have peacefully voted -- oblast by oblast -- on whether to secede from Ukraine, and then on whether to become independent or join the Russian Federation.

    That also would have led to "thousands fewer dead."

    But it also likely would have led to two or three oblasty, at least, voting to leave Ukraine and join Russia, and we can't have that, now can we. I'm not sure exactly why we can't have that, but people like you keep telling me so.

    Would you also support similar referendums now and in the future in the American Southwest? It’s what the local majority wants, right? How about Russia? Automatic EU prospects for an independent Kaliningrad might be tempting. Or is only Ukraine’s territory up for grabs.

    That being said, I would not have been opposed to some form of official mechanism for separatism. It would have involved separatist parties being voted into power in local elections, then a referendum being organized and monitored by those parties. Not armed political marginals led by foreign citizens seizing buildings and declaring separation. Any country would have the right to fight such on their territory.

    Read More
    • Replies: @Anatoly Karlin

    How about Russia?
     
    Since the only two entities that would conceivably leave Russia are Chechnya and perhaps Ingushetia I suspect most Russians would be perfectly fine with that. :)

    Automatic EU prospects for an independent Kaliningrad might be tempting.
     
    Far fewer Russians than Ukrainians believe associating with Europe will automatically bring #tyschavden (transl: increase their income by multiples), so I suspect your hopes will be disappointed even in this scenario.
    , @Glossy
    The junta doesn't want anyone to form peaceful separatist parties. It jails people for merely whispering about separatism to their neighbors. That's one of the reasons why people call it a junta. It's an extraordinarily violent, repressive regime.

    Since there was no peaceful way out of the infernal jail that is the Ukraine, some freedom fighters stepped forward. And thank God that Russia chose to support them. If it supported them earlier and with greater force, there would have been no war, meaning that the Crimean scenario would have happened across the southeast. If it didn't support them at all, the junta would have killed tens of thousands more people in reprisals.

    "Not armed political marginals led by foreign citizens seizing buildings and declaring separation. "

    You have no self-awareness whatsoever. The Maidanites were armed political marginals - soccer hooligans and other trash. There are videos of them behaving in an animalistic way towards Berkut officers and others in Kiev. There are videos of them being animals in Odessa. They seized public buildings. And they were led by foreign nationals, namely Vicky, Pyett and NGO heads.
    , @Glossy
    Would you also support similar referendums now and in the future in the American Southwest? It’s what the local majority wants, right?

    Since you almost certainly view the separatist Ukrainian referendum of 1991 positively, you can't honestly state that you're against separatist referendums in general on universalist grounds.

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  23. AP says:
    @anonymous
    Whether the percent was high or low, the main thing is that the people of the region were able to free themselves from the shackles of the Ukrainian regime. The violence at the Trades Union House where almost fifty people were either burned or beaten to death showed very starkly what swine the regime leaders and their armed gangs really are. After something like that there's just no reasoning or negotiation possible with such people. It's just a fact that people often can't liberate themselves without some outside assistance and fortunately some help did arrive.

    The violence at the Trades Union House where almost fifty people were either burned or beaten to death showed very starkly what swine the regime leaders and their armed gangs really are

    That’s why you’ve got to start and prolong a war with 10,000 dead civilians. To prevent a one-time crime of 50 dead. Sounds reasonable and heroic.

    Read More
    • Replies: @Anatoly Karlin
    Yes, a one-time crime for which people have been sent to jail... those who survived the fire, that is.
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  24. @AP
    Would you also support similar referendums now and in the future in the American Southwest? It's what the local majority wants, right? How about Russia? Automatic EU prospects for an independent Kaliningrad might be tempting. Or is only Ukraine's territory up for grabs.

    That being said, I would not have been opposed to some form of official mechanism for separatism. It would have involved separatist parties being voted into power in local elections, then a referendum being organized and monitored by those parties. Not armed political marginals led by foreign citizens seizing buildings and declaring separation. Any country would have the right to fight such on their territory.

    How about Russia?

    Since the only two entities that would conceivably leave Russia are Chechnya and perhaps Ingushetia I suspect most Russians would be perfectly fine with that. :)

    Automatic EU prospects for an independent Kaliningrad might be tempting.

    Far fewer Russians than Ukrainians believe associating with Europe will automatically bring #tyschavden (transl: increase their income by multiples), so I suspect your hopes will be disappointed even in this scenario.

    Read More
    • Replies: @AP

    Automatic EU prospects for an independent Kaliningrad might be tempting.

    Far fewer Russians than Ukrainians believe associating with Europe will automatically bring #tyschavden (transl: increase their income by multiples), so I suspect your hopes will be disappointed even in this scenario.
     
    Maybe, but would Russia be expected to allow that?
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  25. @AP

    The violence at the Trades Union House where almost fifty people were either burned or beaten to death showed very starkly what swine the regime leaders and their armed gangs really are
     
    That's why you've got to start and prolong a war with 10,000 dead civilians. To prevent a one-time crime of 50 dead. Sounds reasonable and heroic.

    Yes, a one-time crime for which people have been sent to jail… those who survived the fire, that is.

    Read More
    • Replies: @AP
    Sure, but again - justifying an armed conflict with 10,000 dead civilians to prevent Donbas from having an Odessa trade union fire situation isn't very reasonable, is it? I mean, it's so horrible in Odessa and Kharkiv now, good thing Donbas was liberated. The cost was totally worth it.
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  26. AP says:
    @Anatoly Karlin

    How about Russia?
     
    Since the only two entities that would conceivably leave Russia are Chechnya and perhaps Ingushetia I suspect most Russians would be perfectly fine with that. :)

    Automatic EU prospects for an independent Kaliningrad might be tempting.
     
    Far fewer Russians than Ukrainians believe associating with Europe will automatically bring #tyschavden (transl: increase their income by multiples), so I suspect your hopes will be disappointed even in this scenario.

    Automatic EU prospects for an independent Kaliningrad might be tempting.

    Far fewer Russians than Ukrainians believe associating with Europe will automatically bring #tyschavden (transl: increase their income by multiples), so I suspect your hopes will be disappointed even in this scenario.

    Maybe, but would Russia be expected to allow that?

    Read More
    • Replies: @5371
    There's no valid analogy here. Russia is one of the great powers, "Ukraine" is a joke which wasn't there yesterday and won't be there tomorrow.
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  27. AP says:
    @Anatoly Karlin
    Yes, a one-time crime for which people have been sent to jail... those who survived the fire, that is.

    Sure, but again – justifying an armed conflict with 10,000 dead civilians to prevent Donbas from having an Odessa trade union fire situation isn’t very reasonable, is it? I mean, it’s so horrible in Odessa and Kharkiv now, good thing Donbas was liberated. The cost was totally worth it.

    Read More
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  28. Glossy says: • Website
    @AP
    Would you also support similar referendums now and in the future in the American Southwest? It's what the local majority wants, right? How about Russia? Automatic EU prospects for an independent Kaliningrad might be tempting. Or is only Ukraine's territory up for grabs.

    That being said, I would not have been opposed to some form of official mechanism for separatism. It would have involved separatist parties being voted into power in local elections, then a referendum being organized and monitored by those parties. Not armed political marginals led by foreign citizens seizing buildings and declaring separation. Any country would have the right to fight such on their territory.

    The junta doesn’t want anyone to form peaceful separatist parties. It jails people for merely whispering about separatism to their neighbors. That’s one of the reasons why people call it a junta. It’s an extraordinarily violent, repressive regime.

    Since there was no peaceful way out of the infernal jail that is the Ukraine, some freedom fighters stepped forward. And thank God that Russia chose to support them. If it supported them earlier and with greater force, there would have been no war, meaning that the Crimean scenario would have happened across the southeast. If it didn’t support them at all, the junta would have killed tens of thousands more people in reprisals.

    “Not armed political marginals led by foreign citizens seizing buildings and declaring separation. “

    You have no self-awareness whatsoever. The Maidanites were armed political marginals – soccer hooligans and other trash. There are videos of them behaving in an animalistic way towards Berkut officers and others in Kiev. There are videos of them being animals in Odessa. They seized public buildings. And they were led by foreign nationals, namely Vicky, Pyett and NGO heads.

    Read More
    • Replies: @Glossy
    I just remembered Sashko Biliy or whatever that fat pig's name was. Talk about marginals. Growing up I thought such people only existed in cheesy song lyrics. That's the Maidan for you. And he was armed. And seized buildings. And that was months before anything happened in the Donbass.
    , @AP

    The junta doesn’t want anyone to form peaceful separatist parties. It jails people for merely whispering about separatism to their neighbors.
     
    Now that there is a war, sure. But its notable that almost none of the elected officials from Donbas actually supported the separatism. Wasn't Sloviansk's elected mayor thrown in prison by the Russian citizen leading the rebels in that city?

    Since there was no peaceful way out of the infernal jail that is the Ukraine, some freedom fighters stepped forward.
     
    Some of them even stepped forward from another country.

    And thank God that Russia chose to support them. If it supported them earlier and with greater force, there would have been no war,
     
    Sure. But it did not. And if it didn't support them at all, there would have been, perhaps, 100 dead. Or even 500. Or even a few dozen. Instead it supported them just enough to insure that 10,000 civilians were dead. What's the Russian word for peremoha?

    “Not armed political marginals led by foreign citizens seizing buildings and declaring separation. “

    You have no self-awareness whatsoever. The Maidanites were armed political marginals – soccer hooligans and other trash.
     

    Maidan was supported and encouraged by the three political parties that had recently won the popular vote in Ukraine's parliamentary election. Maidan brought those parties into power, which had been denied them despite their victory by electoral reforms Yanukovich and his allies had put through. Please remind me which victorious political parties supported the Donbas uprising and what elections the new Donbas leaders had won prior to the uprising.

    And they were led by foreign nationals, namely Vicky, Pyett and NGO heads.
     
    Nuland was seizing buildings and leading troops? Wow. The things one learns from Glossy.
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  29. Glossy says: • Website
    @Glossy
    The junta doesn't want anyone to form peaceful separatist parties. It jails people for merely whispering about separatism to their neighbors. That's one of the reasons why people call it a junta. It's an extraordinarily violent, repressive regime.

    Since there was no peaceful way out of the infernal jail that is the Ukraine, some freedom fighters stepped forward. And thank God that Russia chose to support them. If it supported them earlier and with greater force, there would have been no war, meaning that the Crimean scenario would have happened across the southeast. If it didn't support them at all, the junta would have killed tens of thousands more people in reprisals.

    "Not armed political marginals led by foreign citizens seizing buildings and declaring separation. "

    You have no self-awareness whatsoever. The Maidanites were armed political marginals - soccer hooligans and other trash. There are videos of them behaving in an animalistic way towards Berkut officers and others in Kiev. There are videos of them being animals in Odessa. They seized public buildings. And they were led by foreign nationals, namely Vicky, Pyett and NGO heads.

    I just remembered Sashko Biliy or whatever that fat pig’s name was. Talk about marginals. Growing up I thought such people only existed in cheesy song lyrics. That’s the Maidan for you. And he was armed. And seized buildings. And that was months before anything happened in the Donbass.

    Read More
    • Replies: @AP
    I didn't realize Sashko Bily was given political office after Maidan.

    But if you don't like him, how about Motorola? So much better?
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  30. Glossy says: • Website
    @AP
    Would you also support similar referendums now and in the future in the American Southwest? It's what the local majority wants, right? How about Russia? Automatic EU prospects for an independent Kaliningrad might be tempting. Or is only Ukraine's territory up for grabs.

    That being said, I would not have been opposed to some form of official mechanism for separatism. It would have involved separatist parties being voted into power in local elections, then a referendum being organized and monitored by those parties. Not armed political marginals led by foreign citizens seizing buildings and declaring separation. Any country would have the right to fight such on their territory.

    Would you also support similar referendums now and in the future in the American Southwest? It’s what the local majority wants, right?

    Since you almost certainly view the separatist Ukrainian referendum of 1991 positively, you can’t honestly state that you’re against separatist referendums in general on universalist grounds.

    Read More
    • Replies: @AP
    Done properly - people elect separatist parties, who then organize the referendum, which has objective monitors and is carried out freely and fairly - I don't have a problem with this.* This is how it was done in Quebec and Scotland. It's not how it was done in Crimea (even though it almost certainly would have won anyways) or Donbas.

    * I might even consider raising the threshold to 55% or whatever, so that such an important decision isn't a whim that may quickly change.
    , @Glossy
    To expand on marginals:

    What AP is trying to say is that the Maidan coup's nominal leaders were established politicians, while the Donbass revolt's nominal leaders were nobodies. This isn't true. Early on it was obvious that Tsarev was meant to lead Big Novorossia. Vicky acted through Porky and Yahtzee, while Putin acted through Tsarev, who was an important guy in the Party of Regions which was the main political force in southeast Ukraine before the coup.

    Putin isn't stupid. He knows how to use the political instruments that his opponents are using. The difference is that he's using them for good, not evil.

    The Tsarev candidacy went down together with the idea of Big Novorossiya, but that was many months into the revolt. The neocons have now dropped Yatsenyuk too. If geopolitical conditions were more favorable for Big Novorossiya, Kernes, Dobkin and Akhmetov would have been incorporated into its governance as well. They certainly seemed on board early on.

    Putin's response to the Maidan was essentially "we can do that too". So any sort of search for cosmetic differences between the two events will end up in the same kind of fiasco as AP's "marginals" charge. Under the skin the difference are enormous - the Russian standard of living has gone up substantially under Putin while the Maidanite rats are raping the Ukraine 1990s-style. He works in the interests of the country while they are oligarchic thieves. But the political technologies are similar.
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  31. AP says:
    @Glossy
    The junta doesn't want anyone to form peaceful separatist parties. It jails people for merely whispering about separatism to their neighbors. That's one of the reasons why people call it a junta. It's an extraordinarily violent, repressive regime.

    Since there was no peaceful way out of the infernal jail that is the Ukraine, some freedom fighters stepped forward. And thank God that Russia chose to support them. If it supported them earlier and with greater force, there would have been no war, meaning that the Crimean scenario would have happened across the southeast. If it didn't support them at all, the junta would have killed tens of thousands more people in reprisals.

    "Not armed political marginals led by foreign citizens seizing buildings and declaring separation. "

    You have no self-awareness whatsoever. The Maidanites were armed political marginals - soccer hooligans and other trash. There are videos of them behaving in an animalistic way towards Berkut officers and others in Kiev. There are videos of them being animals in Odessa. They seized public buildings. And they were led by foreign nationals, namely Vicky, Pyett and NGO heads.

    The junta doesn’t want anyone to form peaceful separatist parties. It jails people for merely whispering about separatism to their neighbors.

    Now that there is a war, sure. But its notable that almost none of the elected officials from Donbas actually supported the separatism. Wasn’t Sloviansk’s elected mayor thrown in prison by the Russian citizen leading the rebels in that city?

    Since there was no peaceful way out of the infernal jail that is the Ukraine, some freedom fighters stepped forward.

    Some of them even stepped forward from another country.

    And thank God that Russia chose to support them. If it supported them earlier and with greater force, there would have been no war,

    Sure. But it did not. And if it didn’t support them at all, there would have been, perhaps, 100 dead. Or even 500. Or even a few dozen. Instead it supported them just enough to insure that 10,000 civilians were dead. What’s the Russian word for peremoha?

    “Not armed political marginals led by foreign citizens seizing buildings and declaring separation. “

    You have no self-awareness whatsoever. The Maidanites were armed political marginals – soccer hooligans and other trash.

    Maidan was supported and encouraged by the three political parties that had recently won the popular vote in Ukraine’s parliamentary election. Maidan brought those parties into power, which had been denied them despite their victory by electoral reforms Yanukovich and his allies had put through. Please remind me which victorious political parties supported the Donbas uprising and what elections the new Donbas leaders had won prior to the uprising.

    And they were led by foreign nationals, namely Vicky, Pyett and NGO heads.

    Nuland was seizing buildings and leading troops? Wow. The things one learns from Glossy.

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    • Replies: @Glossy
    "Nuland was seizing buildings and leading troops? Wow. The things one learns from Glossy.

    She organized that effort. And some of her organizational work (picking personnel) was actually cought on tape. As for foreign troops on the ground, early on there was Greystone, a US mercenary company, and a Polish mercenary company whose name now escapes me. The latter was at Karachun during the siege of Slavyansk. Both of these companies were withdrawn after the junta acquired some confidence in the Ukrainian army, which was relatively early, in the spring of 2014. Of course there must have been American military advisers in the Ukraine for a long time after that. Wouldn't surprise me if some are working there still.
    , @Glossy
    Sure. But it did not. And if it didn’t support them at all, there would have been, perhaps, 100 dead. Or even 500. Or even a few dozen. Instead it supported them just enough to insure that 10,000 civilians were dead. What’s the Russian word for peremoha?

    And if Vicky and her gang didn't start the Maidan, there would have been no dead at all. If Putin didn't intervene in Ilovaysk, the Novorossian army would have probably been beaten. Some fighters would have escaped to Russia and some would have been executed by the junta. There would have been repressions against the large number of civilians who worked for Novorossiya. It would have become a bigger humanitarian disaster than what actually happened.

    As per Colonel Cassad, a massive Russian intervention was planned for April 25th of 2014. It would have been bloodless or almost bloodless, like the Crimean operation. TV time was reserved for a statement from Putin and massive numbers of troops rolled towards the border. The intervention was cancelled at the last moment during a Russian Security Council meeting.

    Colonel Cassad thinks that this happened because of a threat from the US. He doesn't know what the threat was.

    So this bloody war was not planned by the Russian side. Something else was planned, then events interfered, which made things worse on the ground, then things got worse still, then Putin said "screw it" and intervened anyway, saving at least something and avoiding total defeat, which, as I said, would have killed even more people.
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  32. AP says:
    @Glossy
    I just remembered Sashko Biliy or whatever that fat pig's name was. Talk about marginals. Growing up I thought such people only existed in cheesy song lyrics. That's the Maidan for you. And he was armed. And seized buildings. And that was months before anything happened in the Donbass.

    I didn’t realize Sashko Bily was given political office after Maidan.

    But if you don’t like him, how about Motorola? So much better?

    Read More
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  33. AP says:
    @Glossy
    Would you also support similar referendums now and in the future in the American Southwest? It’s what the local majority wants, right?

    Since you almost certainly view the separatist Ukrainian referendum of 1991 positively, you can't honestly state that you're against separatist referendums in general on universalist grounds.

    Done properly – people elect separatist parties, who then organize the referendum, which has objective monitors and is carried out freely and fairly – I don’t have a problem with this.* This is how it was done in Quebec and Scotland. It’s not how it was done in Crimea (even though it almost certainly would have won anyways) or Donbas.

    * I might even consider raising the threshold to 55% or whatever, so that such an important decision isn’t a whim that may quickly change.

    Read More
    • Replies: @Cagey Beast
    We all remember the series of events that lead to this mess in eastern Ukraine. There was no possibility of a peaceful referendum in Donbass because the Kiev gang sent in the military immediately. Crimea had its own parliament that organized a snap referendum to avoid the same fate. There was a coup in Kiev and the regions most unhappy with it broke away from the new regime. The Americans and Europeans should never have encouraged this mess but they did. That's how we got where we are now.
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  34. Glossy says: • Website
    @Glossy
    Would you also support similar referendums now and in the future in the American Southwest? It’s what the local majority wants, right?

    Since you almost certainly view the separatist Ukrainian referendum of 1991 positively, you can't honestly state that you're against separatist referendums in general on universalist grounds.

    To expand on marginals:

    What AP is trying to say is that the Maidan coup’s nominal leaders were established politicians, while the Donbass revolt’s nominal leaders were nobodies. This isn’t true. Early on it was obvious that Tsarev was meant to lead Big Novorossia. Vicky acted through Porky and Yahtzee, while Putin acted through Tsarev, who was an important guy in the Party of Regions which was the main political force in southeast Ukraine before the coup.

    Putin isn’t stupid. He knows how to use the political instruments that his opponents are using. The difference is that he’s using them for good, not evil.

    The Tsarev candidacy went down together with the idea of Big Novorossiya, but that was many months into the revolt. The neocons have now dropped Yatsenyuk too. If geopolitical conditions were more favorable for Big Novorossiya, Kernes, Dobkin and Akhmetov would have been incorporated into its governance as well. They certainly seemed on board early on.

    Putin’s response to the Maidan was essentially “we can do that too”. So any sort of search for cosmetic differences between the two events will end up in the same kind of fiasco as AP’s “marginals” charge. Under the skin the difference are enormous – the Russian standard of living has gone up substantially under Putin while the Maidanite rats are raping the Ukraine 1990s-style. He works in the interests of the country while they are oligarchic thieves. But the political technologies are similar.

    Read More
    • Replies: @AP

    What AP is trying to say is that the Maidan coup’s nominal leaders were established politicians
     
    The "nominal" leaders came to power as a result of Maidan, not people like Yarosh, who simply became one of hundreds of parliament members.

    Early on it was obvious that Tsarev was meant to lead Big Novorossia. Vicky acted through Porky and Yahtzee, while Putin acted through Tsarev, who was an important guy in the Party of Regions
     
    Yatseniuk was head of the largest Opposition party who had won the popular vote in the previous national parliamentary election, who was leading Yanukovich in the presidential polls. Tsarev was former head of the Party of Regions in one oblast (2005 to 2010) and since then an MP, #114 on the Party of Regions electoral list. He was a second-tier politician at best. Moreover even Tsarev didn't come to power in Donbas, it was people like Moscow adventurer Borodai (foreign citizen), Pavel Gubarev who had never been elected anywhere by anyone, or Denis Pushilin, whose biography is amusing:

    https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Denis_Pushilin

    Prior to his political activism, Pushilin worked for a recent successor of the 1990s Russian Ponzi scheme company MMM, which cost its customers millions of dollars before it was disbanded in 1994.[5][6] Pushilin never denied involvement in such schemes and affirmed that "pyramid schemes were legal in Russia at the time".

    As a member of the "We Have One Goal" party Pushilin failed to win a seat in the 15 December 2013 repeat elections of the 2012 Ukrainian parliamentary election in simple-majority constituencies number 94 (located in Obukhiv) because got only 0.08% of the votes.[7][8] Pushilin's (only 1 page long) election program did not contain any statement on a wanted change of Ukraine's current borders.[1][3] According to his election information, in December 2013 Pushilin was "temporarily not working".[1][3]
     
    It's telling that you would view as equal, these creatures and people like Yatseniuk. Yeah, Pushilin and those like him coming to power after an armed revolt involving 20% foreign citizens (and at one time led by one) is exactly like Yatseniuk and the Ukrainian Opposition parties who had recently won the popular vote in the Parliamentary election and who was leading the national Presidential poll by double digits, coming to power following Maidan.
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  35. Cagey Beast says: • Website
    @inertial
    Also, I wonder how many of those Russian rebels were Don Cossacks. Formally, they may be foreigners but Donetsk and Lugansk regions are historically their land.

    You reminded me of this video from 2yrs ago:

    It’s just 4mins of a march past by Don Cossacks heading off to fight but it gives a good idea of what a mixed bag of guys they had. Sad to think more than a few of them are dead now.

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  36. Cagey Beast says: • Website
    @AP
    Done properly - people elect separatist parties, who then organize the referendum, which has objective monitors and is carried out freely and fairly - I don't have a problem with this.* This is how it was done in Quebec and Scotland. It's not how it was done in Crimea (even though it almost certainly would have won anyways) or Donbas.

    * I might even consider raising the threshold to 55% or whatever, so that such an important decision isn't a whim that may quickly change.

    We all remember the series of events that lead to this mess in eastern Ukraine. There was no possibility of a peaceful referendum in Donbass because the Kiev gang sent in the military immediately. Crimea had its own parliament that organized a snap referendum to avoid the same fate. There was a coup in Kiev and the regions most unhappy with it broke away from the new regime. The Americans and Europeans should never have encouraged this mess but they did. That’s how we got where we are now.

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    • Replies: @AP

    We all remember the series of events that lead to this mess in eastern Ukraine. There was no possibility of a peaceful referendum in Donbass because the Kiev gang sent in the military immediately.
     
    Armed gangs took over buildings first:

    https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2014_pro-Russian_unrest_in_Ukraine#Donetsk_Oblast

    https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Timeline_of_the_war_in_Donbass_(April%E2%80%93June_2014)

    Crimea had its own parliament that organized a snap referendum to avoid the same fate.
     
    The Crimean events, while not a pure example of armed gangs and foreign fighters coming to power as in Donbas, were far from being clean, however:

    https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Sergey_Aksyonov#Prime_minister_of_Crimea
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  37. Glossy says: • Website
    @AP

    The junta doesn’t want anyone to form peaceful separatist parties. It jails people for merely whispering about separatism to their neighbors.
     
    Now that there is a war, sure. But its notable that almost none of the elected officials from Donbas actually supported the separatism. Wasn't Sloviansk's elected mayor thrown in prison by the Russian citizen leading the rebels in that city?

    Since there was no peaceful way out of the infernal jail that is the Ukraine, some freedom fighters stepped forward.
     
    Some of them even stepped forward from another country.

    And thank God that Russia chose to support them. If it supported them earlier and with greater force, there would have been no war,
     
    Sure. But it did not. And if it didn't support them at all, there would have been, perhaps, 100 dead. Or even 500. Or even a few dozen. Instead it supported them just enough to insure that 10,000 civilians were dead. What's the Russian word for peremoha?

    “Not armed political marginals led by foreign citizens seizing buildings and declaring separation. “

    You have no self-awareness whatsoever. The Maidanites were armed political marginals – soccer hooligans and other trash.
     

    Maidan was supported and encouraged by the three political parties that had recently won the popular vote in Ukraine's parliamentary election. Maidan brought those parties into power, which had been denied them despite their victory by electoral reforms Yanukovich and his allies had put through. Please remind me which victorious political parties supported the Donbas uprising and what elections the new Donbas leaders had won prior to the uprising.

    And they were led by foreign nationals, namely Vicky, Pyett and NGO heads.
     
    Nuland was seizing buildings and leading troops? Wow. The things one learns from Glossy.

    “Nuland was seizing buildings and leading troops? Wow. The things one learns from Glossy.

    She organized that effort. And some of her organizational work (picking personnel) was actually cought on tape. As for foreign troops on the ground, early on there was Greystone, a US mercenary company, and a Polish mercenary company whose name now escapes me. The latter was at Karachun during the siege of Slavyansk. Both of these companies were withdrawn after the junta acquired some confidence in the Ukrainian army, which was relatively early, in the spring of 2014. Of course there must have been American military advisers in the Ukraine for a long time after that. Wouldn’t surprise me if some are working there still.

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    • Replies: @Glossy
    OK, the Polish military company which fought against Strelkov's troops in Slavyansk is called ASBS Othago. Why was it there? Early on Ukranian troops had a tendency to come over to the separatist side, to refuse to fire at fellow Ukrainians. The junta needed something more reliable, so for a short while it used Poles and Americans. Direct Russian intervention was also short.
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  38. […] 1. Over 3/4 of Donbass fighters are Ukrainian […]

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  39. Glossy says: • Website
    @Glossy
    "Nuland was seizing buildings and leading troops? Wow. The things one learns from Glossy.

    She organized that effort. And some of her organizational work (picking personnel) was actually cought on tape. As for foreign troops on the ground, early on there was Greystone, a US mercenary company, and a Polish mercenary company whose name now escapes me. The latter was at Karachun during the siege of Slavyansk. Both of these companies were withdrawn after the junta acquired some confidence in the Ukrainian army, which was relatively early, in the spring of 2014. Of course there must have been American military advisers in the Ukraine for a long time after that. Wouldn't surprise me if some are working there still.

    OK, the Polish military company which fought against Strelkov’s troops in Slavyansk is called ASBS Othago. Why was it there? Early on Ukranian troops had a tendency to come over to the separatist side, to refuse to fire at fellow Ukrainians. The junta needed something more reliable, so for a short while it used Poles and Americans. Direct Russian intervention was also short.

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    • Replies: @Glossy
    If I remember correctly the junta used Greystone (US mercenaries, former Blackwater of Iraq fame) to seize the administrative building in Kharkov from the rebels.
    , @AP
    Source for that please. I suspect it's the same type of source that claims the Dutch jet was shot down by a Ukrainian fighter.
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  40. Glossy says: • Website
    @Glossy
    OK, the Polish military company which fought against Strelkov's troops in Slavyansk is called ASBS Othago. Why was it there? Early on Ukranian troops had a tendency to come over to the separatist side, to refuse to fire at fellow Ukrainians. The junta needed something more reliable, so for a short while it used Poles and Americans. Direct Russian intervention was also short.

    If I remember correctly the junta used Greystone (US mercenaries, former Blackwater of Iraq fame) to seize the administrative building in Kharkov from the rebels.

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  41. Glossy says: • Website
    @AP

    The junta doesn’t want anyone to form peaceful separatist parties. It jails people for merely whispering about separatism to their neighbors.
     
    Now that there is a war, sure. But its notable that almost none of the elected officials from Donbas actually supported the separatism. Wasn't Sloviansk's elected mayor thrown in prison by the Russian citizen leading the rebels in that city?

    Since there was no peaceful way out of the infernal jail that is the Ukraine, some freedom fighters stepped forward.
     
    Some of them even stepped forward from another country.

    And thank God that Russia chose to support them. If it supported them earlier and with greater force, there would have been no war,
     
    Sure. But it did not. And if it didn't support them at all, there would have been, perhaps, 100 dead. Or even 500. Or even a few dozen. Instead it supported them just enough to insure that 10,000 civilians were dead. What's the Russian word for peremoha?

    “Not armed political marginals led by foreign citizens seizing buildings and declaring separation. “

    You have no self-awareness whatsoever. The Maidanites were armed political marginals – soccer hooligans and other trash.
     

    Maidan was supported and encouraged by the three political parties that had recently won the popular vote in Ukraine's parliamentary election. Maidan brought those parties into power, which had been denied them despite their victory by electoral reforms Yanukovich and his allies had put through. Please remind me which victorious political parties supported the Donbas uprising and what elections the new Donbas leaders had won prior to the uprising.

    And they were led by foreign nationals, namely Vicky, Pyett and NGO heads.
     
    Nuland was seizing buildings and leading troops? Wow. The things one learns from Glossy.

    Sure. But it did not. And if it didn’t support them at all, there would have been, perhaps, 100 dead. Or even 500. Or even a few dozen. Instead it supported them just enough to insure that 10,000 civilians were dead. What’s the Russian word for peremoha?

    And if Vicky and her gang didn’t start the Maidan, there would have been no dead at all. If Putin didn’t intervene in Ilovaysk, the Novorossian army would have probably been beaten. Some fighters would have escaped to Russia and some would have been executed by the junta. There would have been repressions against the large number of civilians who worked for Novorossiya. It would have become a bigger humanitarian disaster than what actually happened.

    As per Colonel Cassad, a massive Russian intervention was planned for April 25th of 2014. It would have been bloodless or almost bloodless, like the Crimean operation. TV time was reserved for a statement from Putin and massive numbers of troops rolled towards the border. The intervention was cancelled at the last moment during a Russian Security Council meeting.

    Colonel Cassad thinks that this happened because of a threat from the US. He doesn’t know what the threat was.

    So this bloody war was not planned by the Russian side. Something else was planned, then events interfered, which made things worse on the ground, then things got worse still, then Putin said “screw it” and intervened anyway, saving at least something and avoiding total defeat, which, as I said, would have killed even more people.

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    • Replies: @AP

    And if Vicky and her gang didn’t start the Maidan, there would have been no dead at all.
     
    I didn't realize the 100,000s on the streets were Nuland. Describing the Maidan as a Western plot is a little like describing the American Revolution as a French plot.

    If you want to shift the blame further back. had Yanukovich not changed the election rules in order to monopolize power (his party changed the system to prevent the winners of the popular vote in the election from gaining control of the parliament) there would have been no Maidan.

    If Putin didn’t intervene in Ilovaysk, the Novorossian army would have probably been beaten. Some fighters would have escaped to Russia and some would have been executed by the junta. There would have been repressions against the large number of civilians who worked for Novorossiya. It would have become a bigger humanitarian disaster than what actually happened.
     
    You mean there would have been over 10,000 dead civilians and much of the region would have been destroyed? Highly doubtful. But if you believe some of the stuff you believe, you'd believe that.
    , @Andrei Martyanov

    Colonel Cassad thinks that this happened because of a threat from the US. He doesn’t know what the threat was.
     
    A lot what he thought and thinks in terms of how Russia's security and defense apparatus works has very little connection with actual reality. I remember how a single post about Northern Wind by Vlad Shurigin, who, unlike "Colonel" Cassad)has extensive connections in General Staff, GRU and other serious structures, literally shut down panicky, if not altogether hysterical Putin Vse Slil, Cassad's recitatives. As per US threats: I don't doubt for a second that even today those threats continue. Much more went into Russia's decision not to intervene in Ukraine than just US "threats", whatever they might have been. Even then, Russia did not see US as serious (that is credible) military threat in Ukraine, but who needs a war (and this is a whole new can of worms, since US would have lost it and it would have been worse if it have at least drew even) when one can avoid one. But it is always tragic, or comical, depending on one's point of view, when a blogger with no military experience tries to advice General Staff, its analytical structures and Russia's Security Council on how they should have acted. Cassad also was, for a long while, an admirer and a conductor for notorious Strelkov's ideas. Especially the conspirological delirium about Surkov acting completely autonomously from....Putin.
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  42. 5371 says:
    @AP

    Automatic EU prospects for an independent Kaliningrad might be tempting.

    Far fewer Russians than Ukrainians believe associating with Europe will automatically bring #tyschavden (transl: increase their income by multiples), so I suspect your hopes will be disappointed even in this scenario.
     
    Maybe, but would Russia be expected to allow that?

    There’s no valid analogy here. Russia is one of the great powers, “Ukraine” is a joke which wasn’t there yesterday and won’t be there tomorrow.

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  43. AP says:
    @Cagey Beast
    We all remember the series of events that lead to this mess in eastern Ukraine. There was no possibility of a peaceful referendum in Donbass because the Kiev gang sent in the military immediately. Crimea had its own parliament that organized a snap referendum to avoid the same fate. There was a coup in Kiev and the regions most unhappy with it broke away from the new regime. The Americans and Europeans should never have encouraged this mess but they did. That's how we got where we are now.

    We all remember the series of events that lead to this mess in eastern Ukraine. There was no possibility of a peaceful referendum in Donbass because the Kiev gang sent in the military immediately.

    Armed gangs took over buildings first:

    https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2014_pro-Russian_unrest_in_Ukraine#Donetsk_Oblast

    https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Timeline_of_the_war_in_Donbass_(April%E2%80%93June_2014)

    Crimea had its own parliament that organized a snap referendum to avoid the same fate.

    The Crimean events, while not a pure example of armed gangs and foreign fighters coming to power as in Donbas, were far from being clean, however:

    https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Sergey_Aksyonov#Prime_minister_of_Crimea

    Read More
    • Replies: @Glossy
    Armed gangs took over buildings first:

    That's a description of the Maidan coup: armed gangs took over government buildings. And that happened first, meaning before the Donbass revolt.
    , @Cagey Beast
    Armed gangs took over buildings first:

    Yes and those were a remarkably bloodless, tit-for-tat response to having the central government overthrown by far more violent methods. It was the Kiev regime that escalated dramatically after these predicable and understandable civilian mass protests.

    Judging by what followed, the Kiev crowd were likely coached by their western handlers to be as harsh as possible to the rebel regions because it would act as a draw play to get Russia to intervene openly. That way a whole new bunch of UN resolutions and IMF rules would come into play. Ukraine would get its debt rescheduled under a mini-Marshal Plan and the Washington consensus would get a much needed boost to its claim to legitimacy.
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  44. AP says:
    @Glossy
    Sure. But it did not. And if it didn’t support them at all, there would have been, perhaps, 100 dead. Or even 500. Or even a few dozen. Instead it supported them just enough to insure that 10,000 civilians were dead. What’s the Russian word for peremoha?

    And if Vicky and her gang didn't start the Maidan, there would have been no dead at all. If Putin didn't intervene in Ilovaysk, the Novorossian army would have probably been beaten. Some fighters would have escaped to Russia and some would have been executed by the junta. There would have been repressions against the large number of civilians who worked for Novorossiya. It would have become a bigger humanitarian disaster than what actually happened.

    As per Colonel Cassad, a massive Russian intervention was planned for April 25th of 2014. It would have been bloodless or almost bloodless, like the Crimean operation. TV time was reserved for a statement from Putin and massive numbers of troops rolled towards the border. The intervention was cancelled at the last moment during a Russian Security Council meeting.

    Colonel Cassad thinks that this happened because of a threat from the US. He doesn't know what the threat was.

    So this bloody war was not planned by the Russian side. Something else was planned, then events interfered, which made things worse on the ground, then things got worse still, then Putin said "screw it" and intervened anyway, saving at least something and avoiding total defeat, which, as I said, would have killed even more people.

    And if Vicky and her gang didn’t start the Maidan, there would have been no dead at all.

    I didn’t realize the 100,000s on the streets were Nuland. Describing the Maidan as a Western plot is a little like describing the American Revolution as a French plot.

    If you want to shift the blame further back. had Yanukovich not changed the election rules in order to monopolize power (his party changed the system to prevent the winners of the popular vote in the election from gaining control of the parliament) there would have been no Maidan.

    If Putin didn’t intervene in Ilovaysk, the Novorossian army would have probably been beaten. Some fighters would have escaped to Russia and some would have been executed by the junta. There would have been repressions against the large number of civilians who worked for Novorossiya. It would have become a bigger humanitarian disaster than what actually happened.

    You mean there would have been over 10,000 dead civilians and much of the region would have been destroyed? Highly doubtful. But if you believe some of the stuff you believe, you’d believe that.

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  45. AP says:
    @Glossy
    OK, the Polish military company which fought against Strelkov's troops in Slavyansk is called ASBS Othago. Why was it there? Early on Ukranian troops had a tendency to come over to the separatist side, to refuse to fire at fellow Ukrainians. The junta needed something more reliable, so for a short while it used Poles and Americans. Direct Russian intervention was also short.

    Source for that please. I suspect it’s the same type of source that claims the Dutch jet was shot down by a Ukrainian fighter.

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    • Replies: @Glossy
    I learned about it at the time from the Colonel Cassad blog and from Strelkov's statements. He was active on the Internet throughout the campaign and he wrote about who he was fighting there. These are much more trustworthy sources to me than any Western government or journalistic organization.

    During that whole story Strelkov revealed a pathological honesty. During his first interview he said that he was a recently-retired Russian officer, but that most of his fighters are Ukrainian citizens. He criticized the Kremlin's policy throughout the campaign, for which he was eventually fired, he did not hide his conflicts with the other commanders, etc.
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  46. AP says:
    @Glossy
    To expand on marginals:

    What AP is trying to say is that the Maidan coup's nominal leaders were established politicians, while the Donbass revolt's nominal leaders were nobodies. This isn't true. Early on it was obvious that Tsarev was meant to lead Big Novorossia. Vicky acted through Porky and Yahtzee, while Putin acted through Tsarev, who was an important guy in the Party of Regions which was the main political force in southeast Ukraine before the coup.

    Putin isn't stupid. He knows how to use the political instruments that his opponents are using. The difference is that he's using them for good, not evil.

    The Tsarev candidacy went down together with the idea of Big Novorossiya, but that was many months into the revolt. The neocons have now dropped Yatsenyuk too. If geopolitical conditions were more favorable for Big Novorossiya, Kernes, Dobkin and Akhmetov would have been incorporated into its governance as well. They certainly seemed on board early on.

    Putin's response to the Maidan was essentially "we can do that too". So any sort of search for cosmetic differences between the two events will end up in the same kind of fiasco as AP's "marginals" charge. Under the skin the difference are enormous - the Russian standard of living has gone up substantially under Putin while the Maidanite rats are raping the Ukraine 1990s-style. He works in the interests of the country while they are oligarchic thieves. But the political technologies are similar.

    What AP is trying to say is that the Maidan coup’s nominal leaders were established politicians

    The “nominal” leaders came to power as a result of Maidan, not people like Yarosh, who simply became one of hundreds of parliament members.

    Early on it was obvious that Tsarev was meant to lead Big Novorossia. Vicky acted through Porky and Yahtzee, while Putin acted through Tsarev, who was an important guy in the Party of Regions

    Yatseniuk was head of the largest Opposition party who had won the popular vote in the previous national parliamentary election, who was leading Yanukovich in the presidential polls. Tsarev was former head of the Party of Regions in one oblast (2005 to 2010) and since then an MP, #114 on the Party of Regions electoral list. He was a second-tier politician at best. Moreover even Tsarev didn’t come to power in Donbas, it was people like Moscow adventurer Borodai (foreign citizen), Pavel Gubarev who had never been elected anywhere by anyone, or Denis Pushilin, whose biography is amusing:

    https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Denis_Pushilin

    Prior to his political activism, Pushilin worked for a recent successor of the 1990s Russian Ponzi scheme company MMM, which cost its customers millions of dollars before it was disbanded in 1994.[5][6] Pushilin never denied involvement in such schemes and affirmed that “pyramid schemes were legal in Russia at the time”.

    As a member of the “We Have One Goal” party Pushilin failed to win a seat in the 15 December 2013 repeat elections of the 2012 Ukrainian parliamentary election in simple-majority constituencies number 94 (located in Obukhiv) because got only 0.08% of the votes.[7][8] Pushilin’s (only 1 page long) election program did not contain any statement on a wanted change of Ukraine’s current borders.[1][3] According to his election information, in December 2013 Pushilin was “temporarily not working”.[1][3]

    It’s telling that you would view as equal, these creatures and people like Yatseniuk. Yeah, Pushilin and those like him coming to power after an armed revolt involving 20% foreign citizens (and at one time led by one) is exactly like Yatseniuk and the Ukrainian Opposition parties who had recently won the popular vote in the Parliamentary election and who was leading the national Presidential poll by double digits, coming to power following Maidan.

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  47. Glossy says: • Website
    @AP

    We all remember the series of events that lead to this mess in eastern Ukraine. There was no possibility of a peaceful referendum in Donbass because the Kiev gang sent in the military immediately.
     
    Armed gangs took over buildings first:

    https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2014_pro-Russian_unrest_in_Ukraine#Donetsk_Oblast

    https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Timeline_of_the_war_in_Donbass_(April%E2%80%93June_2014)

    Crimea had its own parliament that organized a snap referendum to avoid the same fate.
     
    The Crimean events, while not a pure example of armed gangs and foreign fighters coming to power as in Donbas, were far from being clean, however:

    https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Sergey_Aksyonov#Prime_minister_of_Crimea

    Armed gangs took over buildings first:

    That’s a description of the Maidan coup: armed gangs took over government buildings. And that happened first, meaning before the Donbass revolt.

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    • Replies: @AP
    In the case of Maidan, armed gangs represented and brought to power political forces with the country's plurality support - the popular vote winners of recent national elections. In the case of Donbas, the armed gangs - many of whom were not even Ukrainian citizens, and were actually led by a foreign citizen - brought to power a guy who had won less than 1% of the votes in a local election, and some other guys who hadn't run for office but were activists for marginal groups. Donbas rebels and foreign fighters didn't bring to power people who had won elections - indeed, the elected mayor of Sloviansk was thrown in prison while the Russian citizen's militia controlled the city The fact that you think it's all the same tells us about your judgement with respect to politics.
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  48. Glossy says: • Website
    @AP
    Source for that please. I suspect it's the same type of source that claims the Dutch jet was shot down by a Ukrainian fighter.

    I learned about it at the time from the Colonel Cassad blog and from Strelkov’s statements. He was active on the Internet throughout the campaign and he wrote about who he was fighting there. These are much more trustworthy sources to me than any Western government or journalistic organization.

    During that whole story Strelkov revealed a pathological honesty. During his first interview he said that he was a recently-retired Russian officer, but that most of his fighters are Ukrainian citizens. He criticized the Kremlin’s policy throughout the campaign, for which he was eventually fired, he did not hide his conflicts with the other commanders, etc.

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  49. AP says:

    I learned about it at the time from the Colonel Cassad blog and from Strelkov’s statements.

    Exactly. Totally legitimate sources. Shall I quote some Azov fighter sources claiming 10,000s of Russian soldiers in Ukraine, just to even things up?

    During his first interview he said that he was a recently-retired Russian officer, but that most of his fighters are Ukrainian citizens. He criticized the Kremlin’s policy throughout the campaign, for which he was eventually fired, he did not hide his conflicts with the other commanders, etc.

    So being a loose cannon makes him completely honest?

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    • Replies: @Glossy
    This pro-Russian writeup of ASBS Othago's involvement features a photograph, which was widely disseminated at the time, and which I remember seeing then, of Turchinov with the head of the Polish mercenary outfit on the outskirts of Slavyansk:

    http://orientalreview.org/2014/06/10/sikorski-and-dziewulski-the-strategy-and-tactics-of-the-neo-commonwealth/
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  50. Glossy says: • Website
    @AP

    I learned about it at the time from the Colonel Cassad blog and from Strelkov’s statements.
     
    Exactly. Totally legitimate sources. Shall I quote some Azov fighter sources claiming 10,000s of Russian soldiers in Ukraine, just to even things up?

    During his first interview he said that he was a recently-retired Russian officer, but that most of his fighters are Ukrainian citizens. He criticized the Kremlin’s policy throughout the campaign, for which he was eventually fired, he did not hide his conflicts with the other commanders, etc.
     
    So being a loose cannon makes him completely honest?

    This pro-Russian writeup of ASBS Othago’s involvement features a photograph, which was widely disseminated at the time, and which I remember seeing then, of Turchinov with the head of the Polish mercenary outfit on the outskirts of Slavyansk:

    http://orientalreview.org/2014/06/10/sikorski-and-dziewulski-the-strategy-and-tactics-of-the-neo-commonwealth/

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    • Replies: @AP
    Brought to you by Andrew Korybko, who also wrote that" Pope Francis Is The World’s Most Influential Agent Of Ukrainian Nationalism"

    The photo simply proves that Turchynov was using a renowned Polish counter-terrorist expert as a consultant during a counter-terrorist operation. Ukraine uses foreign consultants, such as Leszek Balcerowicz.
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  51. AP says:
    @Glossy
    Armed gangs took over buildings first:

    That's a description of the Maidan coup: armed gangs took over government buildings. And that happened first, meaning before the Donbass revolt.

    In the case of Maidan, armed gangs represented and brought to power political forces with the country’s plurality support – the popular vote winners of recent national elections. In the case of Donbas, the armed gangs – many of whom were not even Ukrainian citizens, and were actually led by a foreign citizen – brought to power a guy who had won less than 1% of the votes in a local election, and some other guys who hadn’t run for office but were activists for marginal groups. Donbas rebels and foreign fighters didn’t bring to power people who had won elections – indeed, the elected mayor of Sloviansk was thrown in prison while the Russian citizen’s militia controlled the city The fact that you think it’s all the same tells us about your judgement with respect to politics.

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    • Replies: @Glossy
    indeed, the elected mayor of Sloviansk was thrown in prison while the Russian citizen’s militia controlled the city

    She's being imprisoned by the junta at this very moment.

    So what's your verdict about the general advisability of imprisoning Ms. Shtepa? You have none, it's your usual "if we do it it's OK, if you do it it's an outrage" stuff. And then you say that you aren't a nationalist.
    , @5371
    [the popular vote winners of recent national elections]

    A lie of course - the elections were not recent, taking place in October 2012, and the largest share of votes in them was won by the Party of Regions. But shame is unknown to Ukropithecus.
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  52. AP says:
    @Glossy
    This pro-Russian writeup of ASBS Othago's involvement features a photograph, which was widely disseminated at the time, and which I remember seeing then, of Turchinov with the head of the Polish mercenary outfit on the outskirts of Slavyansk:

    http://orientalreview.org/2014/06/10/sikorski-and-dziewulski-the-strategy-and-tactics-of-the-neo-commonwealth/

    Brought to you by Andrew Korybko, who also wrote that” Pope Francis Is The World’s Most Influential Agent Of Ukrainian Nationalism”

    The photo simply proves that Turchynov was using a renowned Polish counter-terrorist expert as a consultant during a counter-terrorist operation. Ukraine uses foreign consultants, such as Leszek Balcerowicz.

    Read More
    • Replies: @AP
    Assuming that is even him in the photo.

    http://s27.postimg.org/6iwzjqytv/nie2.jpg

    It might be, but it might not be.
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  53. Glossy says: • Website
    @AP
    In the case of Maidan, armed gangs represented and brought to power political forces with the country's plurality support - the popular vote winners of recent national elections. In the case of Donbas, the armed gangs - many of whom were not even Ukrainian citizens, and were actually led by a foreign citizen - brought to power a guy who had won less than 1% of the votes in a local election, and some other guys who hadn't run for office but were activists for marginal groups. Donbas rebels and foreign fighters didn't bring to power people who had won elections - indeed, the elected mayor of Sloviansk was thrown in prison while the Russian citizen's militia controlled the city The fact that you think it's all the same tells us about your judgement with respect to politics.

    indeed, the elected mayor of Sloviansk was thrown in prison while the Russian citizen’s militia controlled the city

    She’s being imprisoned by the junta at this very moment.

    So what’s your verdict about the general advisability of imprisoning Ms. Shtepa? You have none, it’s your usual “if we do it it’s OK, if you do it it’s an outrage” stuff. And then you say that you aren’t a nationalist.

    Read More
    • Replies: @Glossy
    I tried posting that comment unsuccessfully several times. I guess the Unz software was rejecting the URL of the Russian Wikipedia article on Ms. Shtepa. The URL has a weird string with those % signs that you sometimes get when software translates between encodings.

    Anyway, the junta is seeking a sentence of life imprisonment and she's been brutally beaten by the junta's thugs in its jails. Broken bones, etc. A woman up in her years - typical Maidanite savagery.

    AK: That comment -

    the elected mayor of Sloviansk was thrown in prison while the Russian citizen’s militia controlled the city

    She's being imprisoned by the junta at this very moment.

    https://ru.wikipedia.org/wiki/Штепа,_Неля_Игоревна

    14 октября 2014 г. адвокат Нелли Штепы сообщил, что что её подзащитная была жестоко избита в прокуратуре Харькова. У Штепы зафиксировано несколько переломов ребер и конечностей. Она находится в больнице при следственном изоляторе[13]. Прокуратура опровергла эту информацию, сообщив, что женщина, распространившая данные сведения, не является адвокатом Штепы[14].

    So what's your verdict on the general advisability of imprisoning Ms. Shtepa? You have none, it's your usual "if we do it it's OK, if you do it it's an outrage" stuff. And then you say that you aren't a nationalist.
    ReplyAgree/Disagree/Etc. More... This Commenter This Thread Hide Thread Display All Comments
  54. 5371 says:
    @AP
    In the case of Maidan, armed gangs represented and brought to power political forces with the country's plurality support - the popular vote winners of recent national elections. In the case of Donbas, the armed gangs - many of whom were not even Ukrainian citizens, and were actually led by a foreign citizen - brought to power a guy who had won less than 1% of the votes in a local election, and some other guys who hadn't run for office but were activists for marginal groups. Donbas rebels and foreign fighters didn't bring to power people who had won elections - indeed, the elected mayor of Sloviansk was thrown in prison while the Russian citizen's militia controlled the city The fact that you think it's all the same tells us about your judgement with respect to politics.

    [the popular vote winners of recent national elections]

    A lie of course – the elections were not recent, taking place in October 2012, and the largest share of votes in them was won by the Party of Regions. But shame is unknown to Ukropithecus.

    Read More
    • Replies: @AP

    A lie of course – the elections were not recent, taking place in October 2012, and the largest share of votes in them was won by the Party of Regions.
     
    One year and a few months prior to Maidan is pretty recent.

    While Party of Regions individually had more votes than did any other particular party (30%), the three parties (Fatherland, headed by Yatseniuk, 25.5%, Klitschko, 14%, Svoboda, 10.5%) who took power after Maidan were in coalition with each other and collectively won the popular vote, having gotten more votes that Party of Regions and its Communist allies combined (50% vs. 43%). Under the old rules it would have been an Opposition Parliament but the Party of Regions changed how the elections were run so that they could retain control despite having easily lost the popular vote.

    Had the Opposition controlled the parliament in accordance with their popular vote victory, there would have been no Eurasian Customs Union agreement (it would not have been ratified) and no Maidan. It would just have been gridlock until the next presidential elections (where Yatseniuk and Klitschko were each beating Yanukovich by double digits in the polls).
    ReplyAgree/Disagree/Etc. More... This Commenter This Thread Hide Thread Display All Comments
  55. AP says:
    @AP
    Brought to you by Andrew Korybko, who also wrote that" Pope Francis Is The World’s Most Influential Agent Of Ukrainian Nationalism"

    The photo simply proves that Turchynov was using a renowned Polish counter-terrorist expert as a consultant during a counter-terrorist operation. Ukraine uses foreign consultants, such as Leszek Balcerowicz.

    Assuming that is even him in the photo.

    It might be, but it might not be.

    Read More
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  56. Glossy says: • Website
    @Glossy
    indeed, the elected mayor of Sloviansk was thrown in prison while the Russian citizen’s militia controlled the city

    She's being imprisoned by the junta at this very moment.

    So what's your verdict about the general advisability of imprisoning Ms. Shtepa? You have none, it's your usual "if we do it it's OK, if you do it it's an outrage" stuff. And then you say that you aren't a nationalist.

    I tried posting that comment unsuccessfully several times. I guess the Unz software was rejecting the URL of the Russian Wikipedia article on Ms. Shtepa. The URL has a weird string with those % signs that you sometimes get when software translates between encodings.

    Anyway, the junta is seeking a sentence of life imprisonment and she’s been brutally beaten by the junta’s thugs in its jails. Broken bones, etc. A woman up in her years – typical Maidanite savagery.

    AK: That comment –

    the elected mayor of Sloviansk was thrown in prison while the Russian citizen’s militia controlled the city

    She’s being imprisoned by the junta at this very moment.

    https://ru.wikipedia.org/wiki/Штепа,_Неля_Игоревна

    14 октября 2014 г. адвокат Нелли Штепы сообщил, что что её подзащитная была жестоко избита в прокуратуре Харькова. У Штепы зафиксировано несколько переломов ребер и конечностей. Она находится в больнице при следственном изоляторе[13]. Прокуратура опровергла эту информацию, сообщив, что женщина, распространившая данные сведения, не является адвокатом Штепы[14].

    So what’s your verdict on the general advisability of imprisoning Ms. Shtepa? You have none, it’s your usual “if we do it it’s OK, if you do it it’s an outrage” stuff. And then you say that you aren’t a nationalist.

    Read More
    • Replies: @AP

    Anyway, the junta is seeking a sentence of life imprisonment and she’s been brutally beaten by the junta’s thugs in its jails. Broken bones, etc.
     
    Russian Wikipedia states that this is according to someone claiming to be her lawyer, who actually isn't her lawyer according to prosecutors:

    http://sloviansk.in.ua/?p=248

    Naturally you left that part out, and believe the allegation without any reservations.
    ReplyAgree/Disagree/Etc. More... This Commenter This Thread Hide Thread Display All Comments
  57. AP says:
    @5371
    [the popular vote winners of recent national elections]

    A lie of course - the elections were not recent, taking place in October 2012, and the largest share of votes in them was won by the Party of Regions. But shame is unknown to Ukropithecus.

    A lie of course – the elections were not recent, taking place in October 2012, and the largest share of votes in them was won by the Party of Regions.

    One year and a few months prior to Maidan is pretty recent.

    While Party of Regions individually had more votes than did any other particular party (30%), the three parties (Fatherland, headed by Yatseniuk, 25.5%, Klitschko, 14%, Svoboda, 10.5%) who took power after Maidan were in coalition with each other and collectively won the popular vote, having gotten more votes that Party of Regions and its Communist allies combined (50% vs. 43%). Under the old rules it would have been an Opposition Parliament but the Party of Regions changed how the elections were run so that they could retain control despite having easily lost the popular vote.

    Had the Opposition controlled the parliament in accordance with their popular vote victory, there would have been no Eurasian Customs Union agreement (it would not have been ratified) and no Maidan. It would just have been gridlock until the next presidential elections (where Yatseniuk and Klitschko were each beating Yanukovich by double digits in the polls).

    Read More
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  58. AP says:
    @Glossy
    I tried posting that comment unsuccessfully several times. I guess the Unz software was rejecting the URL of the Russian Wikipedia article on Ms. Shtepa. The URL has a weird string with those % signs that you sometimes get when software translates between encodings.

    Anyway, the junta is seeking a sentence of life imprisonment and she's been brutally beaten by the junta's thugs in its jails. Broken bones, etc. A woman up in her years - typical Maidanite savagery.

    AK: That comment -

    the elected mayor of Sloviansk was thrown in prison while the Russian citizen’s militia controlled the city

    She's being imprisoned by the junta at this very moment.

    https://ru.wikipedia.org/wiki/Штепа,_Неля_Игоревна

    14 октября 2014 г. адвокат Нелли Штепы сообщил, что что её подзащитная была жестоко избита в прокуратуре Харькова. У Штепы зафиксировано несколько переломов ребер и конечностей. Она находится в больнице при следственном изоляторе[13]. Прокуратура опровергла эту информацию, сообщив, что женщина, распространившая данные сведения, не является адвокатом Штепы[14].

    So what's your verdict on the general advisability of imprisoning Ms. Shtepa? You have none, it's your usual "if we do it it's OK, if you do it it's an outrage" stuff. And then you say that you aren't a nationalist.

    Anyway, the junta is seeking a sentence of life imprisonment and she’s been brutally beaten by the junta’s thugs in its jails. Broken bones, etc.

    Russian Wikipedia states that this is according to someone claiming to be her lawyer, who actually isn’t her lawyer according to prosecutors:

    http://sloviansk.in.ua/?p=248

    Naturally you left that part out, and believe the allegation without any reservations.

    Read More
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  59. Cagey Beast says: • Website
    @AP

    We all remember the series of events that lead to this mess in eastern Ukraine. There was no possibility of a peaceful referendum in Donbass because the Kiev gang sent in the military immediately.
     
    Armed gangs took over buildings first:

    https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2014_pro-Russian_unrest_in_Ukraine#Donetsk_Oblast

    https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Timeline_of_the_war_in_Donbass_(April%E2%80%93June_2014)

    Crimea had its own parliament that organized a snap referendum to avoid the same fate.
     
    The Crimean events, while not a pure example of armed gangs and foreign fighters coming to power as in Donbas, were far from being clean, however:

    https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Sergey_Aksyonov#Prime_minister_of_Crimea

    Armed gangs took over buildings first:

    Yes and those were a remarkably bloodless, tit-for-tat response to having the central government overthrown by far more violent methods. It was the Kiev regime that escalated dramatically after these predicable and understandable civilian mass protests.

    Judging by what followed, the Kiev crowd were likely coached by their western handlers to be as harsh as possible to the rebel regions because it would act as a draw play to get Russia to intervene openly. That way a whole new bunch of UN resolutions and IMF rules would come into play. Ukraine would get its debt rescheduled under a mini-Marshal Plan and the Washington consensus would get a much needed boost to its claim to legitimacy.

    Read More
    • Replies: @AP

    "Armed gangs took over buildings first":

    Yes and those were a remarkably bloodless, tit-for-tat response to having the central government overthrown by far more violent methods
     

    So you admit you were mistaken when you stated "the Kiev gang sent in the military immediately"?

    So armed gangs took over government buildings and declared that the territory would now belong to another country. Was the government obligated to just let them keep them, and not to respond violently? Do you think Putin would tolerate that? You think if some local and foreign Mexicans (led by a Mexican illegal who is also a retired Mexican officer) took over government buildings in Arizona or Southern California declaring it to be Mexico, the US government would just let them be? Should they?


    Judging by what followed, the Kiev crowd were likely coached by their western handlers to be as harsh as possible to the rebel regions because it would act as a draw play to get Russia to intervene openly.
     
    What followed seems to have been a gradual escalation by both sides. It wasn't just Kiev suddenly bombing the hell out of Donbas:

    https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Timeline_of_the_war_in_Donbass_(April%E2%80%93June_2014)

    ReplyAgree/Disagree/Etc. More... This Commenter This Thread Hide Thread Display All Comments
  60. AP says:
    @Cagey Beast
    Armed gangs took over buildings first:

    Yes and those were a remarkably bloodless, tit-for-tat response to having the central government overthrown by far more violent methods. It was the Kiev regime that escalated dramatically after these predicable and understandable civilian mass protests.

    Judging by what followed, the Kiev crowd were likely coached by their western handlers to be as harsh as possible to the rebel regions because it would act as a draw play to get Russia to intervene openly. That way a whole new bunch of UN resolutions and IMF rules would come into play. Ukraine would get its debt rescheduled under a mini-Marshal Plan and the Washington consensus would get a much needed boost to its claim to legitimacy.

    “Armed gangs took over buildings first”:

    Yes and those were a remarkably bloodless, tit-for-tat response to having the central government overthrown by far more violent methods

    So you admit you were mistaken when you stated “the Kiev gang sent in the military immediately”?

    So armed gangs took over government buildings and declared that the territory would now belong to another country. Was the government obligated to just let them keep them, and not to respond violently? Do you think Putin would tolerate that? You think if some local and foreign Mexicans (led by a Mexican illegal who is also a retired Mexican officer) took over government buildings in Arizona or Southern California declaring it to be Mexico, the US government would just let them be? Should they?

    Judging by what followed, the Kiev crowd were likely coached by their western handlers to be as harsh as possible to the rebel regions because it would act as a draw play to get Russia to intervene openly.

    What followed seems to have been a gradual escalation by both sides. It wasn’t just Kiev suddenly bombing the hell out of Donbas:

    https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Timeline_of_the_war_in_Donbass_(April%E2%80%93June_2014)

    Read More
    • Replies: @Cagey Beast
    So you admit you were mistaken when you stated “the Kiev gang sent in the military immediately”?

    Of course I don't admit any such thing. I made my earlier post knowing the same chronology of events as I do now. You have caught me out in no error or lie.

    So armed gangs took over government buildings and declared that the territory would now belong to another country.

    No, they took over buildings to show they did not accept the legitimacy of the new Kiev crowd. There was no declaration that the territory belonged to the Russian Federation. There was a mixed bag of declarations and proclamations but not what you describe. I remember seeing hopes expressed the Russians would step in but that was mixed with lots of other ideas.

    What followed seems to have been a gradual escalation by both sides. It wasn’t just Kiev suddenly bombing the hell out of Donbas:

    We remember the same events differently. Don't forget the town square full of students chanting "hang the Moskals!" chanting in Livov either. That stuff was part of the early escalation. Any worthwhile western diplomat who actually wanted the best for Ukraine would have seen that and done everything in his power to restrain the new Maidan gang. They wanted creative destruction too much though to do that.

    ReplyAgree/Disagree/Etc. More... This Commenter This Thread Hide Thread Display All Comments
  61. Andrei Martyanov [AKA "SmoothieX12"] says: • Website
    @Glossy
    Sure. But it did not. And if it didn’t support them at all, there would have been, perhaps, 100 dead. Or even 500. Or even a few dozen. Instead it supported them just enough to insure that 10,000 civilians were dead. What’s the Russian word for peremoha?

    And if Vicky and her gang didn't start the Maidan, there would have been no dead at all. If Putin didn't intervene in Ilovaysk, the Novorossian army would have probably been beaten. Some fighters would have escaped to Russia and some would have been executed by the junta. There would have been repressions against the large number of civilians who worked for Novorossiya. It would have become a bigger humanitarian disaster than what actually happened.

    As per Colonel Cassad, a massive Russian intervention was planned for April 25th of 2014. It would have been bloodless or almost bloodless, like the Crimean operation. TV time was reserved for a statement from Putin and massive numbers of troops rolled towards the border. The intervention was cancelled at the last moment during a Russian Security Council meeting.

    Colonel Cassad thinks that this happened because of a threat from the US. He doesn't know what the threat was.

    So this bloody war was not planned by the Russian side. Something else was planned, then events interfered, which made things worse on the ground, then things got worse still, then Putin said "screw it" and intervened anyway, saving at least something and avoiding total defeat, which, as I said, would have killed even more people.

    Colonel Cassad thinks that this happened because of a threat from the US. He doesn’t know what the threat was.

    A lot what he thought and thinks in terms of how Russia’s security and defense apparatus works has very little connection with actual reality. I remember how a single post about Northern Wind by Vlad Shurigin, who, unlike “Colonel” Cassad)has extensive connections in General Staff, GRU and other serious structures, literally shut down panicky, if not altogether hysterical Putin Vse Slil, Cassad’s recitatives. As per US threats: I don’t doubt for a second that even today those threats continue. Much more went into Russia’s decision not to intervene in Ukraine than just US “threats”, whatever they might have been. Even then, Russia did not see US as serious (that is credible) military threat in Ukraine, but who needs a war (and this is a whole new can of worms, since US would have lost it and it would have been worse if it have at least drew even) when one can avoid one. But it is always tragic, or comical, depending on one’s point of view, when a blogger with no military experience tries to advice General Staff, its analytical structures and Russia’s Security Council on how they should have acted. Cassad also was, for a long while, an admirer and a conductor for notorious Strelkov’s ideas. Especially the conspirological delirium about Surkov acting completely autonomously from….Putin.

    Read More
    • Replies: @5371
    "Cassad" often makes fun of the "Putinslil" crew. Your description of him reminds me more of "El Murid".
    ReplyAgree/Disagree/Etc. More... This Commenter This Thread Hide Thread Display All Comments
  62. Cagey Beast says: • Website
    @AP

    "Armed gangs took over buildings first":

    Yes and those were a remarkably bloodless, tit-for-tat response to having the central government overthrown by far more violent methods
     

    So you admit you were mistaken when you stated "the Kiev gang sent in the military immediately"?

    So armed gangs took over government buildings and declared that the territory would now belong to another country. Was the government obligated to just let them keep them, and not to respond violently? Do you think Putin would tolerate that? You think if some local and foreign Mexicans (led by a Mexican illegal who is also a retired Mexican officer) took over government buildings in Arizona or Southern California declaring it to be Mexico, the US government would just let them be? Should they?


    Judging by what followed, the Kiev crowd were likely coached by their western handlers to be as harsh as possible to the rebel regions because it would act as a draw play to get Russia to intervene openly.
     
    What followed seems to have been a gradual escalation by both sides. It wasn't just Kiev suddenly bombing the hell out of Donbas:

    https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Timeline_of_the_war_in_Donbass_(April%E2%80%93June_2014)

    So you admit you were mistaken when you stated “the Kiev gang sent in the military immediately”?

    Of course I don’t admit any such thing. I made my earlier post knowing the same chronology of events as I do now. You have caught me out in no error or lie.

    So armed gangs took over government buildings and declared that the territory would now belong to another country.

    No, they took over buildings to show they did not accept the legitimacy of the new Kiev crowd. There was no declaration that the territory belonged to the Russian Federation. There was a mixed bag of declarations and proclamations but not what you describe. I remember seeing hopes expressed the Russians would step in but that was mixed with lots of other ideas.

    What followed seems to have been a gradual escalation by both sides. It wasn’t just Kiev suddenly bombing the hell out of Donbas:

    We remember the same events differently. Don’t forget the town square full of students chanting “hang the Moskals!” chanting in Livov either. That stuff was part of the early escalation. Any worthwhile western diplomat who actually wanted the best for Ukraine would have seen that and done everything in his power to restrain the new Maidan gang. They wanted creative destruction too much though to do that.

    Read More
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  63. 5371 says:
    @Andrei Martyanov

    Colonel Cassad thinks that this happened because of a threat from the US. He doesn’t know what the threat was.
     
    A lot what he thought and thinks in terms of how Russia's security and defense apparatus works has very little connection with actual reality. I remember how a single post about Northern Wind by Vlad Shurigin, who, unlike "Colonel" Cassad)has extensive connections in General Staff, GRU and other serious structures, literally shut down panicky, if not altogether hysterical Putin Vse Slil, Cassad's recitatives. As per US threats: I don't doubt for a second that even today those threats continue. Much more went into Russia's decision not to intervene in Ukraine than just US "threats", whatever they might have been. Even then, Russia did not see US as serious (that is credible) military threat in Ukraine, but who needs a war (and this is a whole new can of worms, since US would have lost it and it would have been worse if it have at least drew even) when one can avoid one. But it is always tragic, or comical, depending on one's point of view, when a blogger with no military experience tries to advice General Staff, its analytical structures and Russia's Security Council on how they should have acted. Cassad also was, for a long while, an admirer and a conductor for notorious Strelkov's ideas. Especially the conspirological delirium about Surkov acting completely autonomously from....Putin.

    “Cassad” often makes fun of the “Putinslil” crew. Your description of him reminds me more of “El Murid”.

    Read More
    • Replies: @Andrei Martyanov
    You may visit Sevpolitforum and go to the very beginning of the events of 2014 when everything was in the fog and when Cassad and another hack, Putnik, were basically going hysterical. It took me some effort to help to calm down very tense nerves there (Russkaya Vesna asked me then to write for them--I politely declined, I barely had time then) precisely by countering Cassad's (and later his protege's Strelkov) so called "analysis". I understand that the guy is communist and that he knows better than analytical structures which work for President of Russia, but frankly, this whole Cassad's media project is valuable mostly as news clearing house. As per El-Murid. As I already stated elsewhere here on UNZ, for some reason people think that speaking out on military-political issues is easy and requires merely very general understanding--this is not the case. Reality is--this whole strategy-military-national security-what have you "business" is not a combination of one-liners from tactics, operational art, strategy etc. It is a very complex system which requires vertical knowledge. It is my long-standing contention that information and knowledge are too different things. Very few people in Russia's media space are really in the real know. I always refer to Rostislav Ishenko as one of the most intelligent observers of the events, in the end--he has a background too.
    ReplyAgree/Disagree/Etc. More... This Commenter This Thread Hide Thread Display All Comments
  64. Andrei Martyanov [AKA "SmoothieX12"] says: • Website
    @5371
    "Cassad" often makes fun of the "Putinslil" crew. Your description of him reminds me more of "El Murid".

    You may visit Sevpolitforum and go to the very beginning of the events of 2014 when everything was in the fog and when Cassad and another hack, Putnik, were basically going hysterical. It took me some effort to help to calm down very tense nerves there (Russkaya Vesna asked me then to write for them–I politely declined, I barely had time then) precisely by countering Cassad’s (and later his protege’s Strelkov) so called “analysis”. I understand that the guy is communist and that he knows better than analytical structures which work for President of Russia, but frankly, this whole Cassad’s media project is valuable mostly as news clearing house. As per El-Murid. As I already stated elsewhere here on UNZ, for some reason people think that speaking out on military-political issues is easy and requires merely very general understanding–this is not the case. Reality is–this whole strategy-military-national security-what have you “business” is not a combination of one-liners from tactics, operational art, strategy etc. It is a very complex system which requires vertical knowledge. It is my long-standing contention that information and knowledge are too different things. Very few people in Russia’s media space are really in the real know. I always refer to Rostislav Ishenko as one of the most intelligent observers of the events, in the end–he has a background too.

    Read More
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