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Buzzfeed recently had an article in which they reveal how Henry Kissinger has been lobbying Trump and Jared Kushner about cooperating with Russia to box in China.

The idea is to pull of the reverse of what Nixon accomplished in the 1970s, patching up relations with Red China to exert more pressure on the more powerful USSR.

Certainly a practical businessman such as Trump, who has no truck with ideologizing foreign policy, would be able to see the sense in this from the point of view of American national interests, and I suspect this may forms part of the calculus for his chummy relations with Putin. Ostensibly chummy, anyway. After all, this is what he had to say about Gorbachev in a 1990 interview with Playboy:

I predict he will be overthrown, because he has shown extraordinary weakness. Suddenly, for the first time ever, there are coal-miner strikes and brush fires everywhere–which will all ultimately lead to a violent revolution. Yet Gorbachev is getting credit for being a wonderful leader–and we should continue giving him credit, because he’s destroying the Soviet Union.

But although this is certainly a good approach from the American perspective, there are several intractable problems that make these dreams stillborn from the set-go.

First, the time to do that was in 1998, when Russians were still Americanophiles. Perhaps 2008 at the very latest. But Russians have had a deeply negative view of the US (and vice versa) since 2014. Public opinion might not count for much in Russia, especially as pertains foreign policy, but it’s not an entirely negligible consideration.

Second, it might have a chance if they were dealing with Russian liberals, who are slavishly pro-Western and willing to make unilateral concessions to improve relations, even (or especially) if it comes at Russia’s expense. It also helps that most Russian liberals are Sinophobes, which is a startling similarity they have with the siloviks. The siloviks, inured from business and technological trends, parochial, largely Internet illiterate, still live in the world of the 1970s where China is a Third World dump and unworthy of serious attention – as of 2013, there was a grand total of one analyst working on the Chinese military in the GRU – and quite a few of them are closet Westernists who resent Putin for banning from from foreign travel and making it more difficult for them to maintain villas and bank accounts in the West.

But Putin and the people around him at least don’t think in those terms – to their credit, they are at least “patriotic corruptionists,” not “comprador corruptionists.”

They realize that Russians would be stupid to hitch their wagons to the US, which is agreement-incapable and traditionally hostile to Russia, and is getting overtaken by China on metric after metric every single year anyway.

Almost all of the threats that China does pose to Russia are either complete myths or at least very much exaggerated, as I have often pointed out.

As I wrote back in 2009, China does not pose a demographic threat to the Russian Far East. The vast majority of Chinese in Russia are shuttle traders; virtually zero of them are going to be settling a foreign wilderness as part of some bizarre conspiracy redolent of late 19th century Yellow Peril propaganda to demographically steal Siberia from under the noses of the Russians. This is all the more true today, when urban Chinese salaries are now higher than Russian ones.

Nor is China going to try to militarily seize Siberian Lebensraum, least of all in the nuclear age. It is cute how so many alamists seem to forget about MAD when it comes to Russia-Chinese relations. I suppose the urge to see the two main threats to Western hegemony destroy each other is too much. In any case, China’s vector of advance is maritime and points to the south and east (Taiwan, the South China Sea, the Strait of Malacca). Russia is its strategic rear. This is America’s problem (even if mostly because it chooses to make this it’s problem), not Russia’s problem. I.e. something that the brighter and more cynical neocons realize, as I suppose John Bolton must have recently done.

China does economically overshadow Russia in Central Asia, but given geography and relative economic size, this has always been inevitable (hopefully it can also eventually start taking more Central Asian Gastarbeiters). As I have pointed out, Russia has little except access to its labor market and its weird Victory cult to offer the Central Asians, anyway – whereas the US has its cultural influence, Turkey has an ethnic draw, the Islamic ummah has a spiritual draw, and China has offer more economic incentives. Consequently, the diminution of Russian influence in Central Asia is in any case inevitable.

Otherwise, the draw of China to Russia itself has increased greatly, due to its increasing financial firepower (its nominal GDP is due to overtake the Eurozone this year) and rapidly increasing technological sophistication (even as Russia itself continues to stagnate). These are important considerations in the post-2014 reality in which relations with the West are strained, and the main hope of improvement lies either in Russia’s capitulation, or the coming of right-wing populist movements to power in the West.

In reality, it is quite possible a Russia that swallows Kissinger’s bait will be one that can be bullied by the United States with even more impunity.

Finally, it is on some level fortunate that the Blue Checkmark crazies and Russiagate truthers themselves in any case make any such gambit politically impossible for the United States (and so removing even the temptation of at least having to consider it). They genuinely believe that symbolic concessions such as inviting Putin back to the G8 or dropping some minor sanctions are a “giveaway” to Putin and adequate reward for Russia torpedoing its relations with China for the sake of American interests… hopefully they continue with their delusions.

 
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  1. Russia has spent years trying to get better relations with its “Western partners” and continues to do so. Though the idea that Russia would today throw China under the bus is extremely dubious.

    What’s right on the money is that American domestic politics now make Russo-American cooperation impossible. It was already not very likely in light of the influence of the neocohens for whom it is always 1882 in the shetl, but now the entire Democratic Party is convinced that RUSSIA ASSAULTED OUR DEMOCRACY and that Kremlin-controlled conspiracies are behind all political setbacks in the West.

    The mainstream position of American Democrats is now that even meeting with Russian officials is treason and should be prosecuted.

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  2. Congress probably wants to legislate for more crippling sanctions against Russia:

    https://www.zerohedge.com/news/2018-08-08/ruble-tumbles-russian-cds-jump-after-full-text-crushing-sanctions-bill-leaks

    Read More
    • Replies: @Felix Keverich
    "crippling" should be in scare quotes. The fact is unless they find a way to block Russia's exports of oil, our economy WILL shrug off whatever sanction package American government can throw at it.

    That being said I do question Putin's wisdom in agreeing to summit with Trump. It should have been obvious that such an event would produce major fireworks in USA.
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  3. It is too late, because America itself will be a third-world dump towards the middle of this century, they will have far bigger problems to worry about than the China cointainment…

    There are also reasons for some healthy scepticism regarding the Chinese. It is a non-white society after all. In history only European people managed to create global empires. I think future China will be more like South Korea, than the 20th century USA. In other words, China will be big and prosperous Asian country, but not the world’s hegemon. When Japan’s economy was booming in 1980s, there was real fear among Americans (including Trump) that Japs will take over, and look how that turned out.

    Read More
    • Replies: @Anonymous
    That is a short time period you are looking at.

    For most of human history India and China had the strongest economies.

    If you are talking about a global empire you might be right though. Only white people are motivated to try and control the world. I doubt China is interested in this.
    , @reiner Tor

    In history only European people managed to create global empires.
     
    It's a dubious claim, and depends on your definition of "global." The Mongol Empire seemed quite global at the time, for example. Even China during the Tang Dynasty.

    And as I wrote, the US will be a very formidable power well into the 21st century, no matter what.
    , @Daniel Chieh
    Hegemonic ambitions seem expensive and pointless.
    , @Dmitry

    When Japan’s economy was booming in 1980s, there was real fear among Americans (including Trump) that Japs will take over, and look how that turned out.
     
    Japan's economy is in stagnation (at a high level) for the last 30 years. And their military power ended since 1945.

    What's interesting in recent years, is their cultural power continues to grow.

    After end of Soviet Union, there was only one dominant cultural influence in the world - the American one.

    The change for the latest generation (for people who are teenagers now) is that there are actually two dominant cultural influences - the American one, and also to lesser extent, the Japanese/South Korean one.

    It is not anymore complete American unipolar domination - already there are now two important global cultural influences or fashions (American and Japanese).

    This is pretty interesting, because you would imagine Japanese culture is too alien and language barrier is too much for (European language based nationalities), and yet Japanese still have growing cultural influence over a segment of the youth.

    What we can predict for second half of the 20th century, is a rising cultural influence potential from China. But this will not come from China until there is a lot more economic development in China, and an internal cultural renaissance, which there is no sign of yet. Currently Chinese culture is vastly less developed and attractive than the Japanese or even South Korean one.

    For a rise of Russian cultural domination, it should theoretically be easier, since language barrier is far less. Yet it is the same story as China currently - somehow not enough original new developments. The representatives of the creative class not producing an exportable culture, beyond to Russian speaking nationalities. The greatest success - Masha and Bear, only working on unimportant demographic of 5 year olds.

    , @AP

    It is too late, because America itself will be a third-world dump towards the middle of this century
     
    You are quite the wishful thinker!

    Median family income for American Hispanics is about $47,000 per year. Poor compared to white American family income (median about $62,000 per year) but higher than in many European countries.

    Mexico itself is a second-world country (its per capita GDP PPP is about the same as that of Belarus, although this income is much less evenly distributed).

    America will not be another Mexico any time soon - a hybrid of America (first world country, one of the wealthiest in the world) with Mexico (middle-income country) will not equal a third world country.

    Additonally, Mexican flow into the USA has decreased a lot, and Mexican fertiliy within the USA is declining. USA is projected to be about 47% white, 29% Hispanic, 3% black, and 9% Asian by 2050. Some percentage of those 29% Hispanics are themselves also white (many Cubans, some South Americans and Mexicans).
    , @Ilya
    Russia can't afford to throw China under the bus, but China can afford to throw Russia under the bus.

    China screwed Russia in '98 when it stole the Sukhoi design after only partially paying for the full value of the contract. That's how the Chinese roll -- heads I win, tails you lose. The rapacious informalism of China is such that abiding by an agreement is considered foolish. I'm sure Russia is cautious.

    Japan's growth of corporate debt in the 1960s and 1970s was twice that in the US, and its personal debt took off in the 1980s. Japan is a high-trust, high-IQ society, and its debt overhang has resulted in 30 years (and counting) of economic stagnation. China's IQ is lower than Japan's and China is an extremely inefficient and low-trust society -- how long will its stagnation last once its debt ponzi collapses?

    , @Mr. XYZ
    China has ten times more people than Japan, though. Thus, China probably has the potential to pack a punch about ten times the size of Japan's punches.
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  4. Anonymous[392] • Disclaimer says:

    Curious. Supposing there was a detente with Russia and trade relations were normalized with even a free trade deal thrown in, what would that look like?

    It seems like to me that there are no real synergies between the two countries. America does not need or want anything from Russia and vice versa. This is in stark contrast with Russia – China and Russia – EU where the synergies are self evident.

    I’m sure there are some Russian brands that would do well here such as vodka, and there are lots of brands like Facebook and McDonalds that would do well in Russia. But even that is dubious as Russia is probably better off forsaking bad American influences or just make a Russian equivalent.

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  5. Anonymous[392] • Disclaimer says:
    @Felix Keverich
    It is too late, because America itself will be a third-world dump towards the middle of this century, they will have far bigger problems to worry about than the China cointainment...

    There are also reasons for some healthy scepticism regarding the Chinese. It is a non-white society after all. In history only European people managed to create global empires. I think future China will be more like South Korea, than the 20th century USA. In other words, China will be big and prosperous Asian country, but not the world's hegemon. When Japan's economy was booming in 1980s, there was real fear among Americans (including Trump) that Japs will take over, and look how that turned out.

    That is a short time period you are looking at.

    For most of human history India and China had the strongest economies.

    If you are talking about a global empire you might be right though. Only white people are motivated to try and control the world. I doubt China is interested in this.

    Read More
    • Replies: @Daniel Chieh
    China does have a hegemonic philosophy of sorts: tianxia. It was much slower than usual colonization efforts, though. Japan, of course, had a massive expansionary effort but the Co-Prosperity Sphere never really had a clear philosophy to it.
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  6. @Felix Keverich
    It is too late, because America itself will be a third-world dump towards the middle of this century, they will have far bigger problems to worry about than the China cointainment...

    There are also reasons for some healthy scepticism regarding the Chinese. It is a non-white society after all. In history only European people managed to create global empires. I think future China will be more like South Korea, than the 20th century USA. In other words, China will be big and prosperous Asian country, but not the world's hegemon. When Japan's economy was booming in 1980s, there was real fear among Americans (including Trump) that Japs will take over, and look how that turned out.

    In history only European people managed to create global empires.

    It’s a dubious claim, and depends on your definition of “global.” The Mongol Empire seemed quite global at the time, for example. Even China during the Tang Dynasty.

    And as I wrote, the US will be a very formidable power well into the 21st century, no matter what.

    Read More
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  7. @Felix Keverich
    It is too late, because America itself will be a third-world dump towards the middle of this century, they will have far bigger problems to worry about than the China cointainment...

    There are also reasons for some healthy scepticism regarding the Chinese. It is a non-white society after all. In history only European people managed to create global empires. I think future China will be more like South Korea, than the 20th century USA. In other words, China will be big and prosperous Asian country, but not the world's hegemon. When Japan's economy was booming in 1980s, there was real fear among Americans (including Trump) that Japs will take over, and look how that turned out.

    Hegemonic ambitions seem expensive and pointless.

    Read More
    • Replies: @Felix Keverich
    Chinese people lack the dominance gene. I read in a history book that in late Medeval era they built a massive fleet...and then let it rot, allowing Europeans to explore the world.

    Chinese could have settled the Far East, long before Russians got there, but did not for some reason.
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  8. @Anonymous
    That is a short time period you are looking at.

    For most of human history India and China had the strongest economies.

    If you are talking about a global empire you might be right though. Only white people are motivated to try and control the world. I doubt China is interested in this.

    China does have a hegemonic philosophy of sorts: tianxia. It was much slower than usual colonization efforts, though. Japan, of course, had a massive expansionary effort but the Co-Prosperity Sphere never really had a clear philosophy to it.

    Read More
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  9. @reiner Tor
    Congress probably wants to legislate for more crippling sanctions against Russia:

    https://www.zerohedge.com/news/2018-08-08/ruble-tumbles-russian-cds-jump-after-full-text-crushing-sanctions-bill-leaks

    “crippling” should be in scare quotes. The fact is unless they find a way to block Russia’s exports of oil, our economy WILL shrug off whatever sanction package American government can throw at it.

    That being said I do question Putin’s wisdom in agreeing to summit with Trump. It should have been obvious that such an event would produce major fireworks in USA.

    Read More
    • Replies: @reiner Tor

    That being said I do question Putin’s wisdom in agreeing to summit with Trump. It should have been obvious that such an event would produce major fireworks in USA.
     
    Maybe it’s just 3D chess. He wants to prevent a detente, for which many in his entourage are pushing for, and which would be detrimental to Russian interests.
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  10. @Daniel Chieh
    Hegemonic ambitions seem expensive and pointless.

    Chinese people lack the dominance gene. I read in a history book that in late Medeval era they built a massive fleet…and then let it rot, allowing Europeans to explore the world.

    Chinese could have settled the Far East, long before Russians got there, but did not for some reason.

    Read More
    • Replies: @AaronB

    Chinese people lack the dominance gene
     
    Well, that settles it then.
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  11. @Felix Keverich
    "crippling" should be in scare quotes. The fact is unless they find a way to block Russia's exports of oil, our economy WILL shrug off whatever sanction package American government can throw at it.

    That being said I do question Putin's wisdom in agreeing to summit with Trump. It should have been obvious that such an event would produce major fireworks in USA.

    That being said I do question Putin’s wisdom in agreeing to summit with Trump. It should have been obvious that such an event would produce major fireworks in USA.

    Maybe it’s just 3D chess. He wants to prevent a detente, for which many in his entourage are pushing for, and which would be detrimental to Russian interests.

    Read More
    • Replies: @Felix Keverich
    A detente that will have USA abandon its plans to expand NATO, dial down anti-Russian rhetoric, pressure the Ukraine to implement Minsk agreement - such a detente will totally serve Russian interests.
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  12. AaronB says:
    @Felix Keverich
    Chinese people lack the dominance gene. I read in a history book that in late Medeval era they built a massive fleet...and then let it rot, allowing Europeans to explore the world.

    Chinese could have settled the Far East, long before Russians got there, but did not for some reason.

    Chinese people lack the dominance gene

    Well, that settles it then.

    Read More
    • LOL: Talha
    • Replies: @Talha
    You ever see Gattaca?

    Peace.
    , @iffen

    Chinese people lack the dominance gene
     
    Well, that settles it then.

    I'm not really into the scene, but some of those dragon ladies look pretty dominating.
    , @reiner Tor
    Let alone that most dominant powers (like the Roman Empire) came about not because they had a master plan to conquer (like Hitler in the Mein Kampf and the Second Book), but because they kept facing security problems and solved them by annexing ever further territories. I think the British in India originally just wanted to monopolize trade (and make a lot of money), but eventually had to fight their rivals, and then this resulted in the East India Company becoming dominant over an ever increasing part of India. Then Britain had to take over after the Indian Rebellion. The British then felt the need to take over areas (like Suez, and the whole of Egypt) to secure trade routes to India, or to prevent European rivals from acquiring areas. Some of their conquests came about as a result of settlers simply settling largely uninhabited areas (like Australia). And some as a result of greed (like originally India, or Rhodesia). I don't think any of it was a result of some inborn British desire to "dominate" the world or a large part of its surface area.

    The American empire also came about as a result of reluctantly getting engaged in a couple of large European wars, and then trying to avert the risk of Europe (and East Asia) being conquered by the USSR or local communists.

    I bet you the Chinese empire will evolve the same way, a military base here to secure a trade route, another military base there, then other military bases to protect the existing ones, allies to protect further allies, etc. Eventually it could easily encompass the whole world, without any need for any "dominance gene."
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  13. Dmitry says:

    America is a paradise of high wages and not quite “third world dump” – as driving around there for a few days will show you. It’s a rolemodel of success for any country’s economic policy.

    But improvement of relations with America, will not lessen their interference in internal relations, and desire to undermine and dominate countries they see as potential rivals, simply resulting in them becoming more subtle. But it will reduce defenses to these attempts.

    China is currently pleasantly uninterested in other countries’ internal affairs, as it focuses on its own economic development, and succeeding an acceptable living standard for its population (which is, for the majority, still some decades away from leaving poverty).

    Even if/when China becomes a superpower, their focus for domination will be in the direction East (to their cultural and racial cousins).

    If alliances were reduced to such simple dynamics (choosing between America and China), then China is a far more preferable choice and well behaved partner.

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    • Replies: @valentine
    Why are streets in the US worse than Mogadishu, and why are there people shooting up heroin by the traffic light? (And I am not talking about Chicago, Cleveland, Detroit, Baltimore, or some other shithole town. This is in a city considered really dynamic - not San Francisco where you have to step carefully around the human waste and needles.) And why can't Juan and Bufanaquishria read above a fourth grade level? All forms at the hospital are being rewritten at a lower level because aren't accommodative enough. Priorities in America are FUCKED. I hope Russia bans the US from the International Space Station so maybe the blue checkmarked subhumans will pause when they realize the only way up is to ride Rachel Maddow's dirty strapon. NASA realizes that it's finished if it relies on Musk's or Bezos's pieces of shit and the sky rains down barbecued astronaut limbs.
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  14. @reiner Tor

    That being said I do question Putin’s wisdom in agreeing to summit with Trump. It should have been obvious that such an event would produce major fireworks in USA.
     
    Maybe it’s just 3D chess. He wants to prevent a detente, for which many in his entourage are pushing for, and which would be detrimental to Russian interests.

    A detente that will have USA abandon its plans to expand NATO, dial down anti-Russian rhetoric, pressure the Ukraine to implement Minsk agreement – such a detente will totally serve Russian interests.

    Read More
    • Replies: @reiner Tor
    Both of us know it's impossible, so why are you mentioning it here?

    The risk is that Russia will capitulate. Even trying to capitulate could do incredible damage to Russia, because it could erode any trust the Chinese leadership could ever have had, in exchange for nothing. And China will be a very very strong country in the future. It's already arguably the biggest economy in the world (this will soon be unquestionable), and its military will be built up within a decade to match this.

    By creating "fireworks" (as you put it) in the US, Putin might reduce the risk of such an outcome.
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  15. Talha says:
    @AaronB

    Chinese people lack the dominance gene
     
    Well, that settles it then.

    You ever see Gattaca?

    Peace.

    Read More
    • Replies: @AaronB
    I did - great movie!
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  16. ERM says:

    I was startled and impressed by the number of young Russian women giving tours of the Hermitage to Chinese tourists in decent sounding Mandarin when I was there recently. There must be some sort of Sinological infrastructure in Russia.

    Read More
    • Replies: @Mitleser

    There must be some sort of Sinological infrastructure in Russia.
     

    There has also been a massive increase in the numbers of Russians studying Chinese in the past two decades. Whereas there were just 5,000 Russians studying Chinese in 1997, by 2007 it was 17,000, and by 2017 there were close to 56,000 of them (this is not entirely bad by comparison with the 200,000 Chinese learners in the United States, many of whom I suspect are Chinese-Americans).
     
    http://www.unz.com/akarlin/russian-sinology/
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  17. Dmitry says:
    @Felix Keverich
    It is too late, because America itself will be a third-world dump towards the middle of this century, they will have far bigger problems to worry about than the China cointainment...

    There are also reasons for some healthy scepticism regarding the Chinese. It is a non-white society after all. In history only European people managed to create global empires. I think future China will be more like South Korea, than the 20th century USA. In other words, China will be big and prosperous Asian country, but not the world's hegemon. When Japan's economy was booming in 1980s, there was real fear among Americans (including Trump) that Japs will take over, and look how that turned out.

    When Japan’s economy was booming in 1980s, there was real fear among Americans (including Trump) that Japs will take over, and look how that turned out.

    Japan’s economy is in stagnation (at a high level) for the last 30 years. And their military power ended since 1945.

    What’s interesting in recent years, is their cultural power continues to grow.

    After end of Soviet Union, there was only one dominant cultural influence in the world – the American one.

    The change for the latest generation (for people who are teenagers now) is that there are actually two dominant cultural influences – the American one, and also to lesser extent, the Japanese/South Korean one.

    It is not anymore complete American unipolar domination – already there are now two important global cultural influences or fashions (American and Japanese).

    This is pretty interesting, because you would imagine Japanese culture is too alien and language barrier is too much for (European language based nationalities), and yet Japanese still have growing cultural influence over a segment of the youth.

    What we can predict for second half of the 20th century, is a rising cultural influence potential from China. But this will not come from China until there is a lot more economic development in China, and an internal cultural renaissance, which there is no sign of yet. Currently Chinese culture is vastly less developed and attractive than the Japanese or even South Korean one.

    For a rise of Russian cultural domination, it should theoretically be easier, since language barrier is far less. Yet it is the same story as China currently – somehow not enough original new developments. The representatives of the creative class not producing an exportable culture, beyond to Russian speaking nationalities. The greatest success – Masha and Bear, only working on unimportant demographic of 5 year olds.

    Read More
    • Replies: @Daniel Chieh
    One of the funniest conspiracies theories I read was that Japanese cultural output was a foreshadowing of a future of Japanese world domination, complete with non-Japanese looking people living by Japanese customs and using Japanese names.

    Silliness like that is why places like abovetopsecret should never leave the Internet.
    , @reiner Tor

    Masha and Bear, only working on unimportant demographic of 5 year olds
     
    It also works to some extent on my important 3-year-old daughter. At least I saw here watching it a few times.
    , @DFH

    For a rise of Russian cultural domination, it should theoretically be easier, since language barrier is far less
     
    The language barrier is still quite significant with Russian, many times more so than for Romance/German languages for English speakers (and I imagine for other non-slavic speaking Europeans).
    For instance, my school offered (as well as French) Spanish, German and Russian as modern language options. In the final year, there were about 30 people studying Spanish, 12 studying German and 2 studying Russian and I believe that the main reason was because Russian was the most difficult.
    , @LondonBob
    I grew up playing NES, Gameboy, SNES and then Playstation. Japan has a lot of cultural influence through that. Japan doesn't have the population China does, China is a colussus, on every metric dominant already.
    , @Spisarevski
    My theory on the underwhelming Chinese pop culture is that the censorship represses creativity.

    Japan has true freedom of speech (to the point where cartoon pedophilia is allowed) which is why they go crazy with originality, and they do.

    Korea as far as I understand has a much bigger local SJW equivalent problem and the laws aren't as permissive, which is why they have some cool movies for example but they are significantly behind Japan even after accounting for the population difference.

    I don't buy the theory that the differences are genetic - Chinese, Koreans and Japanese are the same race and equal between each other as far as I'm concerned. IQ studies seem to confirm this.

    Anyway Hollywood soft power is on the wane. In America itself people are getting more and more sick of what is being shoved down their throats.

    In the last couple of years I've watched more Russian movies than Hollywood ones lol - 3 vs 2 (The Duelist, Attraction and Kolovrat from the Russian side and "Blade Runner 2049" and "Death Wish" on the other).
    And interestingly enough, all my normie friends that I used to go to the cinema with tell me the same thing - that they have stopped going and almost stopped watching hollywood movies. They certainly don't do it for political reasons/disgust of jews as I do, but eventually political conformity undermines creativity, whether in Beijing or LA.

    , @Thrasymachus
    I *love* Masha and the Bear! Probably more than my child.
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  18. @Felix Keverich
    A detente that will have USA abandon its plans to expand NATO, dial down anti-Russian rhetoric, pressure the Ukraine to implement Minsk agreement - such a detente will totally serve Russian interests.

    Both of us know it’s impossible, so why are you mentioning it here?

    The risk is that Russia will capitulate. Even trying to capitulate could do incredible damage to Russia, because it could erode any trust the Chinese leadership could ever have had, in exchange for nothing. And China will be a very very strong country in the future. It’s already arguably the biggest economy in the world (this will soon be unquestionable), and its military will be built up within a decade to match this.

    By creating “fireworks” (as you put it) in the US, Putin might reduce the risk of such an outcome.

    Read More
    • Agree: Spisarevski
    • Replies: @Felix Keverich

    Both of us know it’s impossible, so why are you mentioning it here?
     
    That's the point. We know Trump is not in a position to deliver, so why in the world Putin wanted to meet with this loser? All he got from this summit was a new bout of anti-Russian hysteria in the US and a possible new sanctions package. The summit looks like pretty dumb move in hindsight.


    China will be a very very strong country...and its military will be built up within a decade to match this
     
    Do you know Chinese are bying Russian jet engines to power their fighter jets? They were able to copy Su-27 airframe in 1990s, but could not copy the plane's engine. So they are bying hundreds of engines from Russia every year to power their fleet of cloned Su-27. Reportedly, China's own "5th gen" J-20 also uses imported Russian engines.

    Like I said with regards to China healthy scepticism is warranted.
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  19. @Dmitry

    When Japan’s economy was booming in 1980s, there was real fear among Americans (including Trump) that Japs will take over, and look how that turned out.
     
    Japan's economy is in stagnation (at a high level) for the last 30 years. And their military power ended since 1945.

    What's interesting in recent years, is their cultural power continues to grow.

    After end of Soviet Union, there was only one dominant cultural influence in the world - the American one.

    The change for the latest generation (for people who are teenagers now) is that there are actually two dominant cultural influences - the American one, and also to lesser extent, the Japanese/South Korean one.

    It is not anymore complete American unipolar domination - already there are now two important global cultural influences or fashions (American and Japanese).

    This is pretty interesting, because you would imagine Japanese culture is too alien and language barrier is too much for (European language based nationalities), and yet Japanese still have growing cultural influence over a segment of the youth.

    What we can predict for second half of the 20th century, is a rising cultural influence potential from China. But this will not come from China until there is a lot more economic development in China, and an internal cultural renaissance, which there is no sign of yet. Currently Chinese culture is vastly less developed and attractive than the Japanese or even South Korean one.

    For a rise of Russian cultural domination, it should theoretically be easier, since language barrier is far less. Yet it is the same story as China currently - somehow not enough original new developments. The representatives of the creative class not producing an exportable culture, beyond to Russian speaking nationalities. The greatest success - Masha and Bear, only working on unimportant demographic of 5 year olds.

    One of the funniest conspiracies theories I read was that Japanese cultural output was a foreshadowing of a future of Japanese world domination, complete with non-Japanese looking people living by Japanese customs and using Japanese names.

    Silliness like that is why places like abovetopsecret should never leave the Internet.

    Read More
    • Replies: @Anonymous
    Not crazy during the 80s.

    Japan looked unstoppable and if they did not make a lot of mistakes during that time by sticking to mercantilism and pegging their currency to the dollar, Japan could have pulled it off.
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  20. iffen says:
    @AaronB

    Chinese people lack the dominance gene
     
    Well, that settles it then.

    Chinese people lack the dominance gene

    Well, that settles it then.

    I’m not really into the scene, but some of those dragon ladies look pretty dominating.

    Read More
    • LOL: AaronB
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  21. @AaronB

    Chinese people lack the dominance gene
     
    Well, that settles it then.

    Let alone that most dominant powers (like the Roman Empire) came about not because they had a master plan to conquer (like Hitler in the Mein Kampf and the Second Book), but because they kept facing security problems and solved them by annexing ever further territories. I think the British in India originally just wanted to monopolize trade (and make a lot of money), but eventually had to fight their rivals, and then this resulted in the East India Company becoming dominant over an ever increasing part of India. Then Britain had to take over after the Indian Rebellion. The British then felt the need to take over areas (like Suez, and the whole of Egypt) to secure trade routes to India, or to prevent European rivals from acquiring areas. Some of their conquests came about as a result of settlers simply settling largely uninhabited areas (like Australia). And some as a result of greed (like originally India, or Rhodesia). I don’t think any of it was a result of some inborn British desire to “dominate” the world or a large part of its surface area.

    The American empire also came about as a result of reluctantly getting engaged in a couple of large European wars, and then trying to avert the risk of Europe (and East Asia) being conquered by the USSR or local communists.

    I bet you the Chinese empire will evolve the same way, a military base here to secure a trade route, another military base there, then other military bases to protect the existing ones, allies to protect further allies, etc. Eventually it could easily encompass the whole world, without any need for any “dominance gene.”

    Read More
    • Replies: @AaronB
    That's a very good point. I think people just respond to their immediate situation and exploit it to their advantage in a rather piecemeal fashion, and this can lead to unforeseen large scale effects down the road. The British are said to have acquired their empire in a fit of absent mindedness.

    Beyond that, I think business and trade are close kin to the warlike instincts and derive from them - Ehud Barak, Israel's most decorated soldier, went into business after his retirement from the army and said business was just like war, used the same part of the mind, and he enjoyed it just as much as his time in the army.

    As someone who is reluctantly in business but whose dream is to live in a hut in the mountains like a Chinese scholar-recluse of old, I can attest there is little difference between business and war in terms of aggression and dominance.

    I'm not one of those who believe the myth that the Chinese are especially pacifist - rather, I think early Chinese history was especially full of strife and bloodshed, and that the Chinese realized they would have destroyed themselves if they didn't learn to channel their aggressive, dominant instincts into business and money making.

    Its the same misunderstanding generations of Europeans made when they thought Jews were not an aggressive people because they devoted themselves to making money and avoided bloodshed.

    Money making is one of the most aggressive and dominant activities known to man, and any people with a reputation for money making should be regarded as essentially having the instincts of Vikings.

    Pacifist Chinese with no instinct for domination would not have dominated the economies of every SEA country they settled in.

    As always, one must look past the outward form to the essential kernel as a true metaphysician must, and bear in mind that forms may change according to circumstance while the underlying reality remains the same.
    , @German_reader

    The American empire also came about as a result of reluctantly getting engaged in a couple of large European wars
     
    It started before that with the Spanish-American war, and there were many US interventions in Latin America in the early 20th century that had no connection to anything the European powers were doing. And in some ways it may go back even farther (e.g. the opening of Japan to foreign trade by Commodore Perry's squadron; there was also an American military intervention in Korea as far back as 1871). I don't think it can be said that the US just became an imperial power because Europeans dragged her into that role.
    , @LondonBob
    OBOR and the string of pearls are China's move to establish hegemony over the Eurasian landmass, similar moves have been made in Africa. The military secures trade routes. Chinese are inward looking with a focus on commerce, they will establish a benign hegemony.
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  22. @Dmitry

    When Japan’s economy was booming in 1980s, there was real fear among Americans (including Trump) that Japs will take over, and look how that turned out.
     
    Japan's economy is in stagnation (at a high level) for the last 30 years. And their military power ended since 1945.

    What's interesting in recent years, is their cultural power continues to grow.

    After end of Soviet Union, there was only one dominant cultural influence in the world - the American one.

    The change for the latest generation (for people who are teenagers now) is that there are actually two dominant cultural influences - the American one, and also to lesser extent, the Japanese/South Korean one.

    It is not anymore complete American unipolar domination - already there are now two important global cultural influences or fashions (American and Japanese).

    This is pretty interesting, because you would imagine Japanese culture is too alien and language barrier is too much for (European language based nationalities), and yet Japanese still have growing cultural influence over a segment of the youth.

    What we can predict for second half of the 20th century, is a rising cultural influence potential from China. But this will not come from China until there is a lot more economic development in China, and an internal cultural renaissance, which there is no sign of yet. Currently Chinese culture is vastly less developed and attractive than the Japanese or even South Korean one.

    For a rise of Russian cultural domination, it should theoretically be easier, since language barrier is far less. Yet it is the same story as China currently - somehow not enough original new developments. The representatives of the creative class not producing an exportable culture, beyond to Russian speaking nationalities. The greatest success - Masha and Bear, only working on unimportant demographic of 5 year olds.

    Masha and Bear, only working on unimportant demographic of 5 year olds

    It also works to some extent on my important 3-year-old daughter. At least I saw here watching it a few times.

    Read More
    • Replies: @Dmitry
    It's supposedly like cocaine for 5 year olds, but hated by any children older. If they didn't translate it into local languages, probably all 5 year olds around the world would be speaking Russian now.
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  23. Mitleser says:

    China does economically overshadow Russia in Central Asia, but given geography and relative economic size, this has always been inevitable (hopefully it can also eventually start taking more Central Asian Gastarbeiters). As I have pointed out, Russia has little except access to its labor market and its weird Victory cult to offer the Central Asians, anyway – whereas the US has its cultural influence, Turkey has an ethnic draw, the Islamic ummah has a spiritual draw, and China has offer more economic incentives.

    Just because you dislike Central Asia and its ties to Russia, you should not downplay what Russia can offer CA.

    Read More
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  24. OT: Mr. Karlin – under “Glenn Greenwald”, there seems to be a stray bullet point. A bit odd.

    AK: Thanks, but it’s intentional.

    Read More
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  25. Dmitry says:
    @reiner Tor

    Masha and Bear, only working on unimportant demographic of 5 year olds
     
    It also works to some extent on my important 3-year-old daughter. At least I saw here watching it a few times.

    It’s supposedly like cocaine for 5 year olds, but hated by any children older. If they didn’t translate it into local languages, probably all 5 year olds around the world would be speaking Russian now.

    Read More
    • Replies: @Daniel Chieh
    Eastern Europe produces some excellent games: Witcher, Stalker, and Men of War to name a few. Of course, there's Kingdom Come: Deliverance which apparently can no longer be made politically in the anglosphere.

    Not sure why its not more Russian, per se, though.

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  26. @reiner Tor
    Both of us know it's impossible, so why are you mentioning it here?

    The risk is that Russia will capitulate. Even trying to capitulate could do incredible damage to Russia, because it could erode any trust the Chinese leadership could ever have had, in exchange for nothing. And China will be a very very strong country in the future. It's already arguably the biggest economy in the world (this will soon be unquestionable), and its military will be built up within a decade to match this.

    By creating "fireworks" (as you put it) in the US, Putin might reduce the risk of such an outcome.

    Both of us know it’s impossible, so why are you mentioning it here?

    That’s the point. We know Trump is not in a position to deliver, so why in the world Putin wanted to meet with this loser? All he got from this summit was a new bout of anti-Russian hysteria in the US and a possible new sanctions package. The summit looks like pretty dumb move in hindsight.

    China will be a very very strong country…and its military will be built up within a decade to match this

    Do you know Chinese are bying Russian jet engines to power their fighter jets? They were able to copy Su-27 airframe in 1990s, but could not copy the plane’s engine. So they are bying hundreds of engines from Russia every year to power their fleet of cloned Su-27. Reportedly, China’s own “5th gen” J-20 also uses imported Russian engines.

    Like I said with regards to China healthy scepticism is warranted.

    Read More
    • Replies: @reiner Tor
    On the other hand they managed to build an AESA radar earlier than Russia, they are obviously much better at electronics.

    And I wouldn't bet on them never being able to build a decent jet engine.
    , @Kimppis
    That is a simplification. Nowadays they don't simply have Su-27 "clones," but improved variants as well, probably most notably the J-16, with an AESA-radar.

    Also, AFAIK, these most recent Flanker variants are actually equipped with Chinese engines, so in reality China already has hundreds of such fighters.

    It's the single-engine J-10 and 5th gen J-20 that the Chinese seem to have most issues with. That said, they have tested domestic engines on both, and I'd estimate that they'll catch up in a decade, more or less.
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  27. @Dmitry
    It's supposedly like cocaine for 5 year olds, but hated by any children older. If they didn't translate it into local languages, probably all 5 year olds around the world would be speaking Russian now.

    Eastern Europe produces some excellent games: Witcher, Stalker, and Men of War to name a few. Of course, there’s Kingdom Come: Deliverance which apparently can no longer be made politically in the anglosphere.

    Not sure why its not more Russian, per se, though.

    Read More
    • Replies: @Anatoly Karlin
    While EE video games are a great niche product, Russia itself seems to be underrepresented in that sphere.

    Stalker and Metro 2033 are both made by a Ukrainian (now based in Cyprus) company, though both are originally Russian cultural products - even if Glukhovsky is a svidomy.

    KCD is Czech.

    So is the company that made Operation Flashpoint, and then messed up DayZ.

    World of Tanks is Belorussian.

    Underrail is made by a single dedicated Serb.

    Poland is ofc a powerhouse with The Witcher, and soon Cyberpunk 2077.

    Only Russian games that come up in my mind are the old Il-2 Sturmovik simulator, Pathologic (extremely niche), and Escape from Tarkov (I don't know how that's doing). Oh and War Thunder, of course.

    But none of those combined add up to the cultural impact of just Stalker, The Witcher, or even World of Tanks.
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  28. Mitleser says:
    @ERM
    I was startled and impressed by the number of young Russian women giving tours of the Hermitage to Chinese tourists in decent sounding Mandarin when I was there recently. There must be some sort of Sinological infrastructure in Russia.

    There must be some sort of Sinological infrastructure in Russia.

    There has also been a massive increase in the numbers of Russians studying Chinese in the past two decades. Whereas there were just 5,000 Russians studying Chinese in 1997, by 2007 it was 17,000, and by 2017 there were close to 56,000 of them (this is not entirely bad by comparison with the 200,000 Chinese learners in the United States, many of whom I suspect are Chinese-Americans).

    http://www.unz.com/akarlin/russian-sinology/

    Read More
    • Replies: @Dmitry
    Chinese languages are going to be an option in some schools now - but only starting from this year if I recall.

    They wasted a few years just to approve the exam and syllabus.
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  29. AaronB says:
    @reiner Tor
    Let alone that most dominant powers (like the Roman Empire) came about not because they had a master plan to conquer (like Hitler in the Mein Kampf and the Second Book), but because they kept facing security problems and solved them by annexing ever further territories. I think the British in India originally just wanted to monopolize trade (and make a lot of money), but eventually had to fight their rivals, and then this resulted in the East India Company becoming dominant over an ever increasing part of India. Then Britain had to take over after the Indian Rebellion. The British then felt the need to take over areas (like Suez, and the whole of Egypt) to secure trade routes to India, or to prevent European rivals from acquiring areas. Some of their conquests came about as a result of settlers simply settling largely uninhabited areas (like Australia). And some as a result of greed (like originally India, or Rhodesia). I don't think any of it was a result of some inborn British desire to "dominate" the world or a large part of its surface area.

    The American empire also came about as a result of reluctantly getting engaged in a couple of large European wars, and then trying to avert the risk of Europe (and East Asia) being conquered by the USSR or local communists.

    I bet you the Chinese empire will evolve the same way, a military base here to secure a trade route, another military base there, then other military bases to protect the existing ones, allies to protect further allies, etc. Eventually it could easily encompass the whole world, without any need for any "dominance gene."

    That’s a very good point. I think people just respond to their immediate situation and exploit it to their advantage in a rather piecemeal fashion, and this can lead to unforeseen large scale effects down the road. The British are said to have acquired their empire in a fit of absent mindedness.

    Beyond that, I think business and trade are close kin to the warlike instincts and derive from them – Ehud Barak, Israel’s most decorated soldier, went into business after his retirement from the army and said business was just like war, used the same part of the mind, and he enjoyed it just as much as his time in the army.

    As someone who is reluctantly in business but whose dream is to live in a hut in the mountains like a Chinese scholar-recluse of old, I can attest there is little difference between business and war in terms of aggression and dominance.

    I’m not one of those who believe the myth that the Chinese are especially pacifist – rather, I think early Chinese history was especially full of strife and bloodshed, and that the Chinese realized they would have destroyed themselves if they didn’t learn to channel their aggressive, dominant instincts into business and money making.

    Its the same misunderstanding generations of Europeans made when they thought Jews were not an aggressive people because they devoted themselves to making money and avoided bloodshed.

    Money making is one of the most aggressive and dominant activities known to man, and any people with a reputation for money making should be regarded as essentially having the instincts of Vikings.

    Pacifist Chinese with no instinct for domination would not have dominated the economies of every SEA country they settled in.

    As always, one must look past the outward form to the essential kernel as a true metaphysician must, and bear in mind that forms may change according to circumstance while the underlying reality remains the same.

    Read More
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  30. AaronB says:
    @Talha
    You ever see Gattaca?

    Peace.

    I did – great movie!

    Read More
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  31. Dmitry says:
    @Mitleser

    There must be some sort of Sinological infrastructure in Russia.
     

    There has also been a massive increase in the numbers of Russians studying Chinese in the past two decades. Whereas there were just 5,000 Russians studying Chinese in 1997, by 2007 it was 17,000, and by 2017 there were close to 56,000 of them (this is not entirely bad by comparison with the 200,000 Chinese learners in the United States, many of whom I suspect are Chinese-Americans).
     
    http://www.unz.com/akarlin/russian-sinology/

    Chinese languages are going to be an option in some schools now – but only starting from this year if I recall.

    They wasted a few years just to approve the exam and syllabus.

    Read More
    • Replies: @The Big Red Scary
    For a number of years Chinese has already been an option in the local grade school in my village.

    By the way, to hell with exams. It's not like anyone in the history of the world ever learned to speak a language from a class in school. They should just give Russian five years old unlimited access to Masha and Medved in Mandarin.
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  32. DFH says:
    @Dmitry

    When Japan’s economy was booming in 1980s, there was real fear among Americans (including Trump) that Japs will take over, and look how that turned out.
     
    Japan's economy is in stagnation (at a high level) for the last 30 years. And their military power ended since 1945.

    What's interesting in recent years, is their cultural power continues to grow.

    After end of Soviet Union, there was only one dominant cultural influence in the world - the American one.

    The change for the latest generation (for people who are teenagers now) is that there are actually two dominant cultural influences - the American one, and also to lesser extent, the Japanese/South Korean one.

    It is not anymore complete American unipolar domination - already there are now two important global cultural influences or fashions (American and Japanese).

    This is pretty interesting, because you would imagine Japanese culture is too alien and language barrier is too much for (European language based nationalities), and yet Japanese still have growing cultural influence over a segment of the youth.

    What we can predict for second half of the 20th century, is a rising cultural influence potential from China. But this will not come from China until there is a lot more economic development in China, and an internal cultural renaissance, which there is no sign of yet. Currently Chinese culture is vastly less developed and attractive than the Japanese or even South Korean one.

    For a rise of Russian cultural domination, it should theoretically be easier, since language barrier is far less. Yet it is the same story as China currently - somehow not enough original new developments. The representatives of the creative class not producing an exportable culture, beyond to Russian speaking nationalities. The greatest success - Masha and Bear, only working on unimportant demographic of 5 year olds.

    For a rise of Russian cultural domination, it should theoretically be easier, since language barrier is far less

    The language barrier is still quite significant with Russian, many times more so than for Romance/German languages for English speakers (and I imagine for other non-slavic speaking Europeans).
    For instance, my school offered (as well as French) Spanish, German and Russian as modern language options. In the final year, there were about 30 people studying Spanish, 12 studying German and 2 studying Russian and I believe that the main reason was because Russian was the most difficult.

    Read More
    • Replies: @Dmitry
    There might be more initial barrier, but at a higher level the languages are still really similar (because of the grammar and lots of inflections though, it's unusual for English people not to do a lot of grammatical mistakes).

    The main European languages are really similar though, particularly sharing so much vocabulary, and above all, the higher vocabulary (academic vocabulary) is mostly shared. So even a person who is far from perfect can still communicate at a sophisticated level.

    I like to learn languages in a lazy way (just watching some videos, reading articles, and writing on places like here), without studying too much. For English and Spanish, this is not a problem.

    I could learn to understand Spanish last year, without much effort (just watching some videos and reading text - and checking the words on the translator).

    But I was trying seriously to learn a non-European language recently - and it's a major shock (when you can learn the words, understand the sense of sentences, speech and even texts, but the order of the words still makes no sense, so that expressing yourself is almost impossible).

    With non-European languages, the level of difficulty is so much higher and language barrier suddenly seems like a high wall.

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  33. @Felix Keverich

    Both of us know it’s impossible, so why are you mentioning it here?
     
    That's the point. We know Trump is not in a position to deliver, so why in the world Putin wanted to meet with this loser? All he got from this summit was a new bout of anti-Russian hysteria in the US and a possible new sanctions package. The summit looks like pretty dumb move in hindsight.


    China will be a very very strong country...and its military will be built up within a decade to match this
     
    Do you know Chinese are bying Russian jet engines to power their fighter jets? They were able to copy Su-27 airframe in 1990s, but could not copy the plane's engine. So they are bying hundreds of engines from Russia every year to power their fleet of cloned Su-27. Reportedly, China's own "5th gen" J-20 also uses imported Russian engines.

    Like I said with regards to China healthy scepticism is warranted.

    On the other hand they managed to build an AESA radar earlier than Russia, they are obviously much better at electronics.

    And I wouldn’t bet on them never being able to build a decent jet engine.

    Read More
    • Replies: @Thorfinnsson
    They'll figure it out eventually I'm sure.

    China has much less advanced metallurgy than Russia, Japan, South Korea, and the West. A situation not helped with all the massively unproductive zombie steel mills and aluminum smelters kept open by party-controlled zombie banks.

    I'm not as much of a China bear as Polish Perspective, but their economy does have a lot of real structural problems which are easy for HBDers like us to overlook.

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  34. AP says:
    @Felix Keverich
    It is too late, because America itself will be a third-world dump towards the middle of this century, they will have far bigger problems to worry about than the China cointainment...

    There are also reasons for some healthy scepticism regarding the Chinese. It is a non-white society after all. In history only European people managed to create global empires. I think future China will be more like South Korea, than the 20th century USA. In other words, China will be big and prosperous Asian country, but not the world's hegemon. When Japan's economy was booming in 1980s, there was real fear among Americans (including Trump) that Japs will take over, and look how that turned out.

    It is too late, because America itself will be a third-world dump towards the middle of this century

    You are quite the wishful thinker!

    Median family income for American Hispanics is about $47,000 per year. Poor compared to white American family income (median about $62,000 per year) but higher than in many European countries.

    Mexico itself is a second-world country (its per capita GDP PPP is about the same as that of Belarus, although this income is much less evenly distributed).

    America will not be another Mexico any time soon – a hybrid of America (first world country, one of the wealthiest in the world) with Mexico (middle-income country) will not equal a third world country.

    Additonally, Mexican flow into the USA has decreased a lot, and Mexican fertiliy within the USA is declining. USA is projected to be about 47% white, 29% Hispanic, 3% black, and 9% Asian by 2050. Some percentage of those 29% Hispanics are themselves also white (many Cubans, some South Americans and Mexicans).

    Read More
    • Replies: @Thorfinnsson
    I wouldn't be so sanguine.

    After Trump there's the possibility of mass immigration from Central America, Venezuela, the Caribbean, or even Africa. And really, the average manufacturing wage in Mexico is $2.80/hour. I don't see why Mexican immigration won't pick back up as US wages and employment continue to climb.

    The Somalis already have a foothold here for instance. If we let them, what's to stop half of Somalia from moving here? I mean why not? Better to live in Minnesota, even if it's cold, than your shithole homeland.

    If we don't elect President Kobach in 2024 (or better yet, President Thorfinnsson) Felix Keverich could end up correct.

    I also wouldn't rule out disunion or civil war in America's future.

    IF America stays united and Trump-Miller win on immigration, then the USA is likely to remain a powerful and prosperous country for the rest of the century.

    , @Mr. XYZ
    I think that you mean 13% Black. 3% Black would require massive Black emigration from the U.S.
    , @Passer by
    1. Hispanics earn more because they benefit from the larger white driven economy. Hell, blacks even earn relatively well compared to, lets say people in eastern europe. Which does not mean that blacks are smarter than eastern europeans, but simply that they benefit from the larger white driven economy.

    2. Average IQ of hispanics in the US is 90 (see SAT scores)

    3. Quality of latino migrants coming to the US will decrease with time as the percentage of whites in Latin America is declining.

    4. IQ of the US population in 2050 will be around 95. It will continue to decline after that, as most of the available (younger) migrants at that point will be non-white. This means not a first world country, and coming closer to a second world country. Debt levels are projected to reach astronomical levels, while the US share of the world economy to decline, and the US to lose the first and second positions in the world economy to China and India.

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  35. @reiner Tor
    On the other hand they managed to build an AESA radar earlier than Russia, they are obviously much better at electronics.

    And I wouldn't bet on them never being able to build a decent jet engine.

    They’ll figure it out eventually I’m sure.

    China has much less advanced metallurgy than Russia, Japan, South Korea, and the West. A situation not helped with all the massively unproductive zombie steel mills and aluminum smelters kept open by party-controlled zombie banks.

    I’m not as much of a China bear as Polish Perspective, but their economy does have a lot of real structural problems which are easy for HBDers like us to overlook.

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    • Replies: @reiner Tor
    There will probably be a recession in China sometime in the near future. They haven't had a recession for decades, so it might really happen soon. But it won't be the end of the world, and growth will resume shortly afterwards. There's no reason to think otherwise, unless you think there'll be a civil war or something, which is unlikely.
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  36. @Dmitry
    Chinese languages are going to be an option in some schools now - but only starting from this year if I recall.

    They wasted a few years just to approve the exam and syllabus.

    For a number of years Chinese has already been an option in the local grade school in my village.

    By the way, to hell with exams. It’s not like anyone in the history of the world ever learned to speak a language from a class in school. They should just give Russian five years old unlimited access to Masha and Medved in Mandarin.

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    • Replies: @Dmitry
    If it's not an option (until around this year if I recall, it is being trialled) permitted for final exams, it doesn't help get you to university. At the moment (until Chinese is fully introduced) it is only English, French, German and Spanish.

    All those options you can learn by yourself when you are older (because of their similarity), whereas Chinese is non-European language, so classroom instruction could be a helpful foundation.

    Language teaching in the schools is generally poor - but for languages like Chinese it could matter less anyway (I imagine beginning stages is just memorizing characters).

    If we're educating kids for practical future, options should be updated as English, Spanish, German, Chinese and (maybe?) Japanese.

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  37. @reiner Tor
    Let alone that most dominant powers (like the Roman Empire) came about not because they had a master plan to conquer (like Hitler in the Mein Kampf and the Second Book), but because they kept facing security problems and solved them by annexing ever further territories. I think the British in India originally just wanted to monopolize trade (and make a lot of money), but eventually had to fight their rivals, and then this resulted in the East India Company becoming dominant over an ever increasing part of India. Then Britain had to take over after the Indian Rebellion. The British then felt the need to take over areas (like Suez, and the whole of Egypt) to secure trade routes to India, or to prevent European rivals from acquiring areas. Some of their conquests came about as a result of settlers simply settling largely uninhabited areas (like Australia). And some as a result of greed (like originally India, or Rhodesia). I don't think any of it was a result of some inborn British desire to "dominate" the world or a large part of its surface area.

    The American empire also came about as a result of reluctantly getting engaged in a couple of large European wars, and then trying to avert the risk of Europe (and East Asia) being conquered by the USSR or local communists.

    I bet you the Chinese empire will evolve the same way, a military base here to secure a trade route, another military base there, then other military bases to protect the existing ones, allies to protect further allies, etc. Eventually it could easily encompass the whole world, without any need for any "dominance gene."

    The American empire also came about as a result of reluctantly getting engaged in a couple of large European wars

    It started before that with the Spanish-American war, and there were many US interventions in Latin America in the early 20th century that had no connection to anything the European powers were doing. And in some ways it may go back even farther (e.g. the opening of Japan to foreign trade by Commodore Perry’s squadron; there was also an American military intervention in Korea as far back as 1871). I don’t think it can be said that the US just became an imperial power because Europeans dragged her into that role.

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    • Replies: @reiner Tor

    It started before that with the Spanish-American war, and there were many US interventions in Latin America
     
    Yes, as a result of a combination of the Monroe Doctrine (which were probably ultimately rooted in security concerns) and greed (i.e. trying to make money off Latin America), not some dominance instinct. Commodore Perry's expedition was probably driven by a desire to trade with Japan, basically, to make money. I don't think it was driven by some desire to dominate.
    , @utu
    More worldly founding fathers like Thomas Jefferson knew that America was destined to be a super power. Masonic lodges and various gentlemen clubs where the think tanks of those days. People talked about things including expansion and domination. It was taken for granted even before the declaration of independence was signed that Spanish colonies like Cuba or Puerto Rico would become a part of the US. Then the idea of dominating Souther American all the way to Tierra del Fuego became quite popular among the Southerners before the Civil War.
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  38. @AP

    It is too late, because America itself will be a third-world dump towards the middle of this century
     
    You are quite the wishful thinker!

    Median family income for American Hispanics is about $47,000 per year. Poor compared to white American family income (median about $62,000 per year) but higher than in many European countries.

    Mexico itself is a second-world country (its per capita GDP PPP is about the same as that of Belarus, although this income is much less evenly distributed).

    America will not be another Mexico any time soon - a hybrid of America (first world country, one of the wealthiest in the world) with Mexico (middle-income country) will not equal a third world country.

    Additonally, Mexican flow into the USA has decreased a lot, and Mexican fertiliy within the USA is declining. USA is projected to be about 47% white, 29% Hispanic, 3% black, and 9% Asian by 2050. Some percentage of those 29% Hispanics are themselves also white (many Cubans, some South Americans and Mexicans).

    I wouldn’t be so sanguine.

    After Trump there’s the possibility of mass immigration from Central America, Venezuela, the Caribbean, or even Africa. And really, the average manufacturing wage in Mexico is $2.80/hour. I don’t see why Mexican immigration won’t pick back up as US wages and employment continue to climb.

    The Somalis already have a foothold here for instance. If we let them, what’s to stop half of Somalia from moving here? I mean why not? Better to live in Minnesota, even if it’s cold, than your shithole homeland.

    If we don’t elect President Kobach in 2024 (or better yet, President Thorfinnsson) Felix Keverich could end up correct.

    I also wouldn’t rule out disunion or civil war in America’s future.

    IF America stays united and Trump-Miller win on immigration, then the USA is likely to remain a powerful and prosperous country for the rest of the century.

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    • Replies: @AP

    After Trump there’s the possibility of mass immigration from Central America, Venezuela, the Caribbean, or even Africa. And really, the average manufacturing wage in Mexico is $2.80/hour. I don’t see why Mexican immigration won’t pick back up as US wages and employment continue to climb.
     
    Worst case scenario - America becomes half America, half Latin America. There will be 180 million people of European origins, 180 million or so Latinos, 40 million blacks. This doesn't add up to a third world country, given most of Latin America itself is middle income and the Latinos here already are no poorer than, say, Portuguese.

    More likely scenario - if our lower class whites mix with the Latinos, you'll still have about 120 million European people, and a similar number of English-speaking castizos, and maybe 100 million mestizos. Black numbers are the same, and will remain an underclass, probably pushed even further under by the newcomers. Also doesn't add up to a third world country. Overall would no longer be richer capita than the UK, France or Germany (assuming these somehow stay the same as they are now) but still be richer than southern Europe.

    The Somalis already have a foothold here for instance. If we let them, what’s to stop half of Somalia from moving here?
     
    Somalia has 14 million people so even half of Somalia came to the USA it would not be game-changing.

    But Europe is closer to Africa and there are more Somalis in Europe than there are in the USA. There are about 340,000 Somalis in the EU + UK, vs. 135,000 in the USA.
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  39. Anonymous[392] • Disclaimer says:
    @Daniel Chieh
    One of the funniest conspiracies theories I read was that Japanese cultural output was a foreshadowing of a future of Japanese world domination, complete with non-Japanese looking people living by Japanese customs and using Japanese names.

    Silliness like that is why places like abovetopsecret should never leave the Internet.

    Not crazy during the 80s.

    Japan looked unstoppable and if they did not make a lot of mistakes during that time by sticking to mercantilism and pegging their currency to the dollar, Japan could have pulled it off.

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    • Replies: @LondonBob
    Japan just went through the economic pains of transitioning to an older society with a stagnant population, much the same process is happening in Europe, where strong economic growth will remain elusive. GDP per capita Japan has done well, and their TFR has picked up.
    , @utu

    Japan looked unstoppable and if they did not make a lot of mistakes during that time by sticking to mercantilism and pegging their currency to the dollar, Japan could have pulled it off.
     
    Japan was stopped because it looked unstoppable and not because it made mistakes. I hope that somebody in China is studying this very seriously. Intuitively Chinese know that keeping a head low and not making too much noise is the best approach but after the loudmouth Trump call on them and start vilify China more than camouflage and dissimulation is needed.
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  40. Kimppis says:
    @Felix Keverich

    Both of us know it’s impossible, so why are you mentioning it here?
     
    That's the point. We know Trump is not in a position to deliver, so why in the world Putin wanted to meet with this loser? All he got from this summit was a new bout of anti-Russian hysteria in the US and a possible new sanctions package. The summit looks like pretty dumb move in hindsight.


    China will be a very very strong country...and its military will be built up within a decade to match this
     
    Do you know Chinese are bying Russian jet engines to power their fighter jets? They were able to copy Su-27 airframe in 1990s, but could not copy the plane's engine. So they are bying hundreds of engines from Russia every year to power their fleet of cloned Su-27. Reportedly, China's own "5th gen" J-20 also uses imported Russian engines.

    Like I said with regards to China healthy scepticism is warranted.

    That is a simplification. Nowadays they don’t simply have Su-27 “clones,” but improved variants as well, probably most notably the J-16, with an AESA-radar.

    Also, AFAIK, these most recent Flanker variants are actually equipped with Chinese engines, so in reality China already has hundreds of such fighters.

    It’s the single-engine J-10 and 5th gen J-20 that the Chinese seem to have most issues with. That said, they have tested domestic engines on both, and I’d estimate that they’ll catch up in a decade, more or less.

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    • Replies: @Felix Keverich
    I'm not an expert on this issue, I just know that they keep bying Russian engines. Hundreds of them in fact. Chinese wouldn't be doing this if they could produce a reliable domestic engine.

    Chinese submarine force is vastly inferior to Russia's, and this is something they won't be able to rectify through copy-cat engineering, because we won't sell them a nuclear submarine. There are other issues with the Chinese military that cannot be fixed within a 10 year timeline. As a Russian, I see no reason to fear them yet.
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  41. @German_reader

    The American empire also came about as a result of reluctantly getting engaged in a couple of large European wars
     
    It started before that with the Spanish-American war, and there were many US interventions in Latin America in the early 20th century that had no connection to anything the European powers were doing. And in some ways it may go back even farther (e.g. the opening of Japan to foreign trade by Commodore Perry's squadron; there was also an American military intervention in Korea as far back as 1871). I don't think it can be said that the US just became an imperial power because Europeans dragged her into that role.

    It started before that with the Spanish-American war, and there were many US interventions in Latin America

    Yes, as a result of a combination of the Monroe Doctrine (which were probably ultimately rooted in security concerns) and greed (i.e. trying to make money off Latin America), not some dominance instinct. Commodore Perry’s expedition was probably driven by a desire to trade with Japan, basically, to make money. I don’t think it was driven by some desire to dominate.

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    • Replies: @Mitleser

    Yes, as a result of a combination of the Monroe Doctrine (which were probably ultimately rooted in security concerns) and greed (i.e. trying to make money off Latin America), not some dominance instinct.
     
    https://abload.de/img/perfidiousamericansnrjtr.png
    , @Thorfinnsson
    There was also growing anger in many Western countries at Tokugawa Japan at that time owing to Japan's isolationist policy being so extreme that they refused to assist victims of shipwrecks or to sell provisions to foreign ships.

    In the Morrison Incident of 1837 the Japanese bombarded an American ship which was attempting to return shipwrecked Japanese to Japan.
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  42. Ilya says:
    @Felix Keverich
    It is too late, because America itself will be a third-world dump towards the middle of this century, they will have far bigger problems to worry about than the China cointainment...

    There are also reasons for some healthy scepticism regarding the Chinese. It is a non-white society after all. In history only European people managed to create global empires. I think future China will be more like South Korea, than the 20th century USA. In other words, China will be big and prosperous Asian country, but not the world's hegemon. When Japan's economy was booming in 1980s, there was real fear among Americans (including Trump) that Japs will take over, and look how that turned out.

    Russia can’t afford to throw China under the bus, but China can afford to throw Russia under the bus.

    China screwed Russia in ’98 when it stole the Sukhoi design after only partially paying for the full value of the contract. That’s how the Chinese roll — heads I win, tails you lose. The rapacious informalism of China is such that abiding by an agreement is considered foolish. I’m sure Russia is cautious.

    Japan’s growth of corporate debt in the 1960s and 1970s was twice that in the US, and its personal debt took off in the 1980s. Japan is a high-trust, high-IQ society, and its debt overhang has resulted in 30 years (and counting) of economic stagnation. China’s IQ is lower than Japan’s and China is an extremely inefficient and low-trust society — how long will its stagnation last once its debt ponzi collapses?

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    • Replies: @reiner Tor
    Japanese GDP did grow over the past three decades, though. Especially taking into account that their working age population has constantly been shrinking, which probably won't be the case with the Chinese.
    , @Anonymous
    Both Russia and China need each other. China needs Russian resources and access to Eurasia through OBOR, while Russia needs Chinese money and manufactured products.

    If either country screws over the other, and they become antagonistic to each other, both China and Russia would be vulnerable to the West toppling them. It would basically be a neocons wet dream which is why I don't think it will happen. Too much to lose.

    If China and Russia maintain friendly ties, there is nothing the west could do to topple either country.
    , @Felix Keverich
    I agree with you: Japanese people are racially superior to the Chinese. But how exactly Russia or China could throw each other under the bus? This is not an actual alliance, both the Russians and the Chinese understand that. However, it is not in China's interest to have the Putin regime in Russia replaced with something pro-Western.
    , @Daniel Chieh

    Japan is a high-trust, high-IQ society, and its debt overhang has resulted in 30 years (and counting) of economic stagnation.
     
    Japan is far less dynamic than China, actually, with much of its structure organized in a fashion that is extremely difficult to change since it has both formal and informal elements. It has its upsides, but its one of the reasons why once stuck in a rut, its very difficult for them to emerge from it.

    Lifetime employment, for example, is still considered a serious prospect in Japan, often with jobs reliant on setting up connections from even as far back as high school clubs; such a thing is laughable in China(or the US, for that matter). You last as long as you are useful.

    Its not the most pleasant for the employees, but it does mean that everything moves fast and can respond much quicker.

    , @Bliss

    Russia can’t afford to throw China under the bus, but China can afford to throw Russia under the bus.
     
    For economic, geopolitical and military reasons China can not afford to throw Russia under the bus in an increasingly unpredictable global environment: trade wars, sanctions, threats of war in the Persian Gulf, climate extremes etc.

    At the very least it needs the stability and security of Russian pipelines pouring oil and gas into China, and the planned Silk Road pouring Chinese products across Eurasia.

    Putin’s dream of an European/Eurasian zone from Lisbon to Vladivostok has been replaced by Xi’s Chinese/Eurasian vision.
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  43. Mitleser says:
    @reiner Tor

    It started before that with the Spanish-American war, and there were many US interventions in Latin America
     
    Yes, as a result of a combination of the Monroe Doctrine (which were probably ultimately rooted in security concerns) and greed (i.e. trying to make money off Latin America), not some dominance instinct. Commodore Perry's expedition was probably driven by a desire to trade with Japan, basically, to make money. I don't think it was driven by some desire to dominate.

    Yes, as a result of a combination of the Monroe Doctrine (which were probably ultimately rooted in security concerns) and greed (i.e. trying to make money off Latin America), not some dominance instinct.

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  44. Jon0815 says:

    It is cute how so many alamists seem to forget about MAD when it comes to Russia-Chinese relations. I suppose the urge to see the two main threats to Western hegemony destroy each other is too much,

    China doesn’t even have MAD capability re: Russia.

    Given Russia’s nearly 6-1 advantage in deployed strategic warheads, probably the only way a Sino-Russian nuclear exchange ends with >10 million Russian dead, is if China decides to commit national suicide and launches a (countervalue) first strike at Russian cities.

    Whereas a Russian (counterforce) first strike would wipe out at least 80% of China’s estimated 260 strategic warheads, including 100% of those aboard its noisy submarines. Thus, increasing Russia’s strategic warhead advantage to more than 20-1. China might still have the capability to overwhelm Moscow’s ABM defenses, provided their nuked command and control system was still functioning, or could be repaired within the week or two it would take for Russia to evacuate the city. But this would accomplish nothing except to guarantee the destruction of Beijing in response. So realistically, China would have no choice but to negotiate a conditional surrender.

    The value of nuclear superpower status tends to be greatly underestimated, because of the widespread perception that nuclear war= the Hollywood version where both sides immediately throw everything they have at the other’s cities.* During the Cuban Missile Crisis, the USA was able to force the USSR into a humiliating capitulation (and was quite willing to kill thousands of Soviet troops in conventional military strikes on Cuba, vs. the extreme care the USA has taken to avoid killing Russian troops in Syria today), due to its possession of overwhelming nuclear superiority. I think a good case can be made that, despite its conventional military inferiority, Russia is presently more powerful relative to the USA (measured by the ability to deter a conventional or nuclear attack), then the USSR was during the entire period of 1945- early 1970s, before it attained nuclear parity.

    *Possibly the most realistic depiction of a nuclear war in popular fiction, is the 1984 novel Warday, in which the the Soviets launch a limited, primarily counterforce strike at the USA, to pre-empt the deployment of an SDI system: The only US cities that are hit are DC, New York, and San Antonio (the latter only because one of the book’s authors lived there).

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    • Replies: @reiner Tor

    During the Cuban Missile Crisis, the USA was able to force the USSR into a humiliating capitulation (and was quite willing to kill thousands of Soviet troops in conventional military strikes on Cuba, vs. the extreme care the USA has taken to avoid killing Russian troops in Syria today), due to its possession of overwhelming nuclear superiority.
     
    I just had an interesting thought. During the Cuban Missile Crisis, it was the generals who wanted to attack outright, while the politicians (like JFK himself, however much of a buffoon he was otherwise) wanted to avoid war if possible. Whereas in 2018 there were reports that Trump wanted to hit the Russian military assets, too, and it was the generals (Mattis and Dunford) who talked him out of it.

    I think a good case could be made that soldiers are both more and less terrified of nukes than politicians. Generali think a kind of worst case, where the enemy will lob all it has at us, destroying all our forces and cities with the nukes it has. On the other hand, generals will accept some friendly losses, which means they will accept that the enemy might destroy a few of your cities. So what? They could be rebuilt later. That’s what civilians are for, to rebuild cities. However, politicians (some politicians, at least) will be less accepting of losing millions of civilians. But since they are amateurs, they won’t necessarily think that the enemy will use its nukes.

    Therefore, a general’s support of fighting a shooting war with a nuclear power will depend on their assessment of the ratio of overall military strength, where nuclear weapons play an enormous role. Even the Russian anti-ship missiles are more capable with nuclear warheads, so even at the tactical or operational level the ratio of forces will be more balanced, once you take Russian nukes into the equation. Therefore, whereas American generals must’ve thought in 1962 that they could easily and clearly win a (nuclear) war against Russia, their assessment in 2018 (as you wrote) was probably way less clear. At a minimum, the US would be totally destroyed and finished as a superpower after such a war.

    In the case of the politicians, they might have viewed nukes as principally tools for destroying cities, and they didn’t want to accept losses of their own cities. However, probably Trump just didn’t believe Putin would escalate to a nuclear war because of Syria. (Though the story about Trump supporting a strike on Russian military assets might be fake news.)
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  45. Dmitry says:
    @The Big Red Scary
    For a number of years Chinese has already been an option in the local grade school in my village.

    By the way, to hell with exams. It's not like anyone in the history of the world ever learned to speak a language from a class in school. They should just give Russian five years old unlimited access to Masha and Medved in Mandarin.

    If it’s not an option (until around this year if I recall, it is being trialled) permitted for final exams, it doesn’t help get you to university. At the moment (until Chinese is fully introduced) it is only English, French, German and Spanish.

    All those options you can learn by yourself when you are older (because of their similarity), whereas Chinese is non-European language, so classroom instruction could be a helpful foundation.

    Language teaching in the schools is generally poor – but for languages like Chinese it could matter less anyway (I imagine beginning stages is just memorizing characters).

    If we’re educating kids for practical future, options should be updated as English, Spanish, German, Chinese and (maybe?) Japanese.

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    • Replies: @The Big Red Scary

    If it’s not an option... permitted for final exams, it doesn’t help get you to university.
     
    I know. Losers don't learn Chinese. They go to university.
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  46. @reiner Tor

    It started before that with the Spanish-American war, and there were many US interventions in Latin America
     
    Yes, as a result of a combination of the Monroe Doctrine (which were probably ultimately rooted in security concerns) and greed (i.e. trying to make money off Latin America), not some dominance instinct. Commodore Perry's expedition was probably driven by a desire to trade with Japan, basically, to make money. I don't think it was driven by some desire to dominate.

    There was also growing anger in many Western countries at Tokugawa Japan at that time owing to Japan’s isolationist policy being so extreme that they refused to assist victims of shipwrecks or to sell provisions to foreign ships.

    In the Morrison Incident of 1837 the Japanese bombarded an American ship which was attempting to return shipwrecked Japanese to Japan.

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    • Replies: @LondonBob
    Healthy xenophobia.

    Trade and war go together.
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  47. @Ilya
    Russia can't afford to throw China under the bus, but China can afford to throw Russia under the bus.

    China screwed Russia in '98 when it stole the Sukhoi design after only partially paying for the full value of the contract. That's how the Chinese roll -- heads I win, tails you lose. The rapacious informalism of China is such that abiding by an agreement is considered foolish. I'm sure Russia is cautious.

    Japan's growth of corporate debt in the 1960s and 1970s was twice that in the US, and its personal debt took off in the 1980s. Japan is a high-trust, high-IQ society, and its debt overhang has resulted in 30 years (and counting) of economic stagnation. China's IQ is lower than Japan's and China is an extremely inefficient and low-trust society -- how long will its stagnation last once its debt ponzi collapses?

    Japanese GDP did grow over the past three decades, though. Especially taking into account that their working age population has constantly been shrinking, which probably won’t be the case with the Chinese.

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    • Replies: @Thorfinnsson
    Japan's low per capita GDP (relative to 1990) is partly a policy choice. Japan has chosen to keep more of its workforce in agriculture and also to protect inefficient sole proprietorships in the service sector.

    Likewise the lower per capita GDP in Western Europe (other than Norway and Switzerland) compared to the USA reflects a choice to work fewer hours in the year.

    The 80s economy, even ignoring the cartoonish bubble (Tokyo Stock Exchange was 60% of global market cap, and the imperial palace was valued more than California), simply wasn't going to last forever. Even without the Plaza Accord it was inevitable that America and European firms would implement Japanese managerial techniques.

    If Shintaro Ishihara had succeeded in becoming the LDP leader (and thus, inevitably, Prime Minister), then things would've gotten really interesting. Ishihara was a proponent of renegotiating or even withdrawing outright from the Bilateral Treaty and developing Japan into an independent great power.

    Here's an interesting book that Ishihara cowrote with Akio Morita (the founder of Sony) in 1989 titled The Japan that can Say No: http://nihongo.monash.edu/japanno.txt

    Note how Ishihara suggests purchasing jet engines from France or even the Soviet Union for the FSX fighter program.

    The Nakasone government ultimately bowed to American pressure and "evolved" the FSX program into a modified, domestically produced F-16 which was inferior to the FSX design. Around the same time Boeing developed its strategy of signing up Japanese manufacturers as tier one suppliers.

    Thus America eliminated the nascent threat of Japan developing a complete aerospace industry.
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  48. Dmitry says:
    @DFH

    For a rise of Russian cultural domination, it should theoretically be easier, since language barrier is far less
     
    The language barrier is still quite significant with Russian, many times more so than for Romance/German languages for English speakers (and I imagine for other non-slavic speaking Europeans).
    For instance, my school offered (as well as French) Spanish, German and Russian as modern language options. In the final year, there were about 30 people studying Spanish, 12 studying German and 2 studying Russian and I believe that the main reason was because Russian was the most difficult.

    There might be more initial barrier, but at a higher level the languages are still really similar (because of the grammar and lots of inflections though, it’s unusual for English people not to do a lot of grammatical mistakes).

    The main European languages are really similar though, particularly sharing so much vocabulary, and above all, the higher vocabulary (academic vocabulary) is mostly shared. So even a person who is far from perfect can still communicate at a sophisticated level.

    I like to learn languages in a lazy way (just watching some videos, reading articles, and writing on places like here), without studying too much. For English and Spanish, this is not a problem.

    I could learn to understand Spanish last year, without much effort (just watching some videos and reading text – and checking the words on the translator).

    But I was trying seriously to learn a non-European language recently – and it’s a major shock (when you can learn the words, understand the sense of sentences, speech and even texts, but the order of the words still makes no sense, so that expressing yourself is almost impossible).

    With non-European languages, the level of difficulty is so much higher and language barrier suddenly seems like a high wall.

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    • Replies: @Spisarevski
    Japanese is much easier because phonetically it's similar to European languages.
    I've picked up a lot of Japanese simply by watching anime.

    Korean is more alien, but less so than Chinese, and has the best writing system among the East Asian languages.

    Chinese is truly alien to the European ear. Vietnamese also seems pretty impossible for me.
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  49. @Thorfinnsson
    They'll figure it out eventually I'm sure.

    China has much less advanced metallurgy than Russia, Japan, South Korea, and the West. A situation not helped with all the massively unproductive zombie steel mills and aluminum smelters kept open by party-controlled zombie banks.

    I'm not as much of a China bear as Polish Perspective, but their economy does have a lot of real structural problems which are easy for HBDers like us to overlook.

    There will probably be a recession in China sometime in the near future. They haven’t had a recession for decades, so it might really happen soon. But it won’t be the end of the world, and growth will resume shortly afterwards. There’s no reason to think otherwise, unless you think there’ll be a civil war or something, which is unlikely.

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    • Replies: @Duke of Qin
    Post Deng China has actually had 4 recessions usually one a decade. The same dishonest sorts of people will contradictorily claim that Chinese economic data is both false and that China will face a recession that they have never faced before and it will doom them. Chinese GDP growth rates have always been subject to a line of best fit where the lows are not registered as lows and the highs are not registered as highs. China had an economic recession in 1989, 1997, 2008, and one 2016. In the first 3 instances, there was a substantial nominal contraction, but countered by something like ridiculous 16% growth rate recoveries the subsequent year that were smoothed over.
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  50. Vendetta says:

    We don’t need China swapped in for Russia as public enemy #1. Just more of the same outmoded thinking. What would truly serve us best in the 21st century would be a triple alliance among the three great powers to maintain a common front in containing militant Sunni Islam, dealing with the African population bomb, and responding to any other destabilizing disasters in the Third World that could lead to further waves of mass migration.

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  51. @reiner Tor
    There will probably be a recession in China sometime in the near future. They haven't had a recession for decades, so it might really happen soon. But it won't be the end of the world, and growth will resume shortly afterwards. There's no reason to think otherwise, unless you think there'll be a civil war or something, which is unlikely.

    Post Deng China has actually had 4 recessions usually one a decade. The same dishonest sorts of people will contradictorily claim that Chinese economic data is both false and that China will face a recession that they have never faced before and it will doom them. Chinese GDP growth rates have always been subject to a line of best fit where the lows are not registered as lows and the highs are not registered as highs. China had an economic recession in 1989, 1997, 2008, and one 2016. In the first 3 instances, there was a substantial nominal contraction, but countered by something like ridiculous 16% growth rate recoveries the subsequent year that were smoothed over.

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  52. @Kimppis
    That is a simplification. Nowadays they don't simply have Su-27 "clones," but improved variants as well, probably most notably the J-16, with an AESA-radar.

    Also, AFAIK, these most recent Flanker variants are actually equipped with Chinese engines, so in reality China already has hundreds of such fighters.

    It's the single-engine J-10 and 5th gen J-20 that the Chinese seem to have most issues with. That said, they have tested domestic engines on both, and I'd estimate that they'll catch up in a decade, more or less.

    I’m not an expert on this issue, I just know that they keep bying Russian engines. Hundreds of them in fact. Chinese wouldn’t be doing this if they could produce a reliable domestic engine.

    Chinese submarine force is vastly inferior to Russia’s, and this is something they won’t be able to rectify through copy-cat engineering, because we won’t sell them a nuclear submarine. There are other issues with the Chinese military that cannot be fixed within a 10 year timeline. As a Russian, I see no reason to fear them yet.

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    • Replies: @Kimppis
    They still import Chinese engines, that is correct. However, as I said, their heavier 4th gen fighters are already equipped with domestic engines, so they aren't that far behind.

    Regarding submarines, that's not entirely true either. In fact, quite far from it. Their diesel sub tech is probably comparable to that of Russia and they already have around 40 modern SSKs (compared to Russia's 20, at most).

    The biggest gap is probably in nuclear subs, but it seems to be exaggerated as well. AFAIK, the reports that the Chinese SSNs are noisy are seemingly still based on reports from the 90s. Nowadays they have several improved variants of the Type 093 in service and those should already be quite decent. The upcoming Type 096s might already be largely competitive.

    Looking at Russia's shipbuilding industry and its building speeds, I really don't think it's too far-fetched to think that China could more or less catch up within a decade. 10 years from now on, Russia's (or even US') fleet will still mostly consist of upgraded Cold War-era boats (which will of course still be capable, but anyway).

    Check out where China's surface fleet was 10 years ago and look at it now (or rather, in 2020-22). The Type 052C/D turned out to be the first destroyers that the Chinese were satisfied with and they started churning them out in large numbers. Those Type 096s could be the same for nuclear subs.
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  53. @reiner Tor
    Japanese GDP did grow over the past three decades, though. Especially taking into account that their working age population has constantly been shrinking, which probably won't be the case with the Chinese.

    Japan’s low per capita GDP (relative to 1990) is partly a policy choice. Japan has chosen to keep more of its workforce in agriculture and also to protect inefficient sole proprietorships in the service sector.

    Likewise the lower per capita GDP in Western Europe (other than Norway and Switzerland) compared to the USA reflects a choice to work fewer hours in the year.

    The 80s economy, even ignoring the cartoonish bubble (Tokyo Stock Exchange was 60% of global market cap, and the imperial palace was valued more than California), simply wasn’t going to last forever. Even without the Plaza Accord it was inevitable that America and European firms would implement Japanese managerial techniques.

    If Shintaro Ishihara had succeeded in becoming the LDP leader (and thus, inevitably, Prime Minister), then things would’ve gotten really interesting. Ishihara was a proponent of renegotiating or even withdrawing outright from the Bilateral Treaty and developing Japan into an independent great power.

    Here’s an interesting book that Ishihara cowrote with Akio Morita (the founder of Sony) in 1989 titled The Japan that can Say No: http://nihongo.monash.edu/japanno.txt

    Note how Ishihara suggests purchasing jet engines from France or even the Soviet Union for the FSX fighter program.

    The Nakasone government ultimately bowed to American pressure and “evolved” the FSX program into a modified, domestically produced F-16 which was inferior to the FSX design. Around the same time Boeing developed its strategy of signing up Japanese manufacturers as tier one suppliers.

    Thus America eliminated the nascent threat of Japan developing a complete aerospace industry.

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  54. Anonymous[392] • Disclaimer says:
    @Ilya
    Russia can't afford to throw China under the bus, but China can afford to throw Russia under the bus.

    China screwed Russia in '98 when it stole the Sukhoi design after only partially paying for the full value of the contract. That's how the Chinese roll -- heads I win, tails you lose. The rapacious informalism of China is such that abiding by an agreement is considered foolish. I'm sure Russia is cautious.

    Japan's growth of corporate debt in the 1960s and 1970s was twice that in the US, and its personal debt took off in the 1980s. Japan is a high-trust, high-IQ society, and its debt overhang has resulted in 30 years (and counting) of economic stagnation. China's IQ is lower than Japan's and China is an extremely inefficient and low-trust society -- how long will its stagnation last once its debt ponzi collapses?

    Both Russia and China need each other. China needs Russian resources and access to Eurasia through OBOR, while Russia needs Chinese money and manufactured products.

    If either country screws over the other, and they become antagonistic to each other, both China and Russia would be vulnerable to the West toppling them. It would basically be a neocons wet dream which is why I don’t think it will happen. Too much to lose.

    If China and Russia maintain friendly ties, there is nothing the west could do to topple either country.

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  55. @Daniel Chieh
    Eastern Europe produces some excellent games: Witcher, Stalker, and Men of War to name a few. Of course, there's Kingdom Come: Deliverance which apparently can no longer be made politically in the anglosphere.

    Not sure why its not more Russian, per se, though.

    While EE video games are a great niche product, Russia itself seems to be underrepresented in that sphere.

    Stalker and Metro 2033 are both made by a Ukrainian (now based in Cyprus) company, though both are originally Russian cultural products – even if Glukhovsky is a svidomy.

    KCD is Czech.

    So is the company that made Operation Flashpoint, and then messed up DayZ.

    World of Tanks is Belorussian.

    Underrail is made by a single dedicated Serb.

    Poland is ofc a powerhouse with The Witcher, and soon Cyberpunk 2077.

    Only Russian games that come up in my mind are the old Il-2 Sturmovik simulator, Pathologic (extremely niche), and Escape from Tarkov (I don’t know how that’s doing). Oh and War Thunder, of course.

    But none of those combined add up to the cultural impact of just Stalker, The Witcher, or even World of Tanks.

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    • Replies: @Spisarevski
    As someone who occasionally plays Disciples 2 and HOMM 5 to this day, I humbly disagree.

    Here's something good from the dvach /v/:

    http://arhivach.cf/storage/d/ed/ded332165bfb2d4ecd778ca2fcf0850e.jpg

    Most of these games are Russian.
    , @Daniel Chieh

    While EE video games are a great niche product, Russia itself seems to be underrepresented in that sphere.

     

    But why? Its not due to lack of coders, obviously.

    My theory is some form of brain drain, which for some reason, isn't hitting the other EE countries. I once knew a really good Russian coder who developed an entire reworked mod for Rimworld, basically writing it alone. He was working in Germany as some sort of airport security guard, probably because of the pay differential(staggering underemployment, really). When I last spoke with him, he was writing his own game, but I imagine if anything comes from it, it'll be published as German, not a Russian game.
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  56. @Ilya
    Russia can't afford to throw China under the bus, but China can afford to throw Russia under the bus.

    China screwed Russia in '98 when it stole the Sukhoi design after only partially paying for the full value of the contract. That's how the Chinese roll -- heads I win, tails you lose. The rapacious informalism of China is such that abiding by an agreement is considered foolish. I'm sure Russia is cautious.

    Japan's growth of corporate debt in the 1960s and 1970s was twice that in the US, and its personal debt took off in the 1980s. Japan is a high-trust, high-IQ society, and its debt overhang has resulted in 30 years (and counting) of economic stagnation. China's IQ is lower than Japan's and China is an extremely inefficient and low-trust society -- how long will its stagnation last once its debt ponzi collapses?

    I agree with you: Japanese people are racially superior to the Chinese. But how exactly Russia or China could throw each other under the bus? This is not an actual alliance, both the Russians and the Chinese understand that. However, it is not in China’s interest to have the Putin regime in Russia replaced with something pro-Western.

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  57. @Ilya
    Russia can't afford to throw China under the bus, but China can afford to throw Russia under the bus.

    China screwed Russia in '98 when it stole the Sukhoi design after only partially paying for the full value of the contract. That's how the Chinese roll -- heads I win, tails you lose. The rapacious informalism of China is such that abiding by an agreement is considered foolish. I'm sure Russia is cautious.

    Japan's growth of corporate debt in the 1960s and 1970s was twice that in the US, and its personal debt took off in the 1980s. Japan is a high-trust, high-IQ society, and its debt overhang has resulted in 30 years (and counting) of economic stagnation. China's IQ is lower than Japan's and China is an extremely inefficient and low-trust society -- how long will its stagnation last once its debt ponzi collapses?

    Japan is a high-trust, high-IQ society, and its debt overhang has resulted in 30 years (and counting) of economic stagnation.

    Japan is far less dynamic than China, actually, with much of its structure organized in a fashion that is extremely difficult to change since it has both formal and informal elements. It has its upsides, but its one of the reasons why once stuck in a rut, its very difficult for them to emerge from it.

    Lifetime employment, for example, is still considered a serious prospect in Japan, often with jobs reliant on setting up connections from even as far back as high school clubs; such a thing is laughable in China(or the US, for that matter). You last as long as you are useful.

    Its not the most pleasant for the employees, but it does mean that everything moves fast and can respond much quicker.

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    • Replies: @Ilya
    "You last as long as you are useful?"

    Like those black holes commonly referred to as "SOEs"?
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  58. AP says:
    @Thorfinnsson
    I wouldn't be so sanguine.

    After Trump there's the possibility of mass immigration from Central America, Venezuela, the Caribbean, or even Africa. And really, the average manufacturing wage in Mexico is $2.80/hour. I don't see why Mexican immigration won't pick back up as US wages and employment continue to climb.

    The Somalis already have a foothold here for instance. If we let them, what's to stop half of Somalia from moving here? I mean why not? Better to live in Minnesota, even if it's cold, than your shithole homeland.

    If we don't elect President Kobach in 2024 (or better yet, President Thorfinnsson) Felix Keverich could end up correct.

    I also wouldn't rule out disunion or civil war in America's future.

    IF America stays united and Trump-Miller win on immigration, then the USA is likely to remain a powerful and prosperous country for the rest of the century.

    After Trump there’s the possibility of mass immigration from Central America, Venezuela, the Caribbean, or even Africa. And really, the average manufacturing wage in Mexico is $2.80/hour. I don’t see why Mexican immigration won’t pick back up as US wages and employment continue to climb.

    Worst case scenario – America becomes half America, half Latin America. There will be 180 million people of European origins, 180 million or so Latinos, 40 million blacks. This doesn’t add up to a third world country, given most of Latin America itself is middle income and the Latinos here already are no poorer than, say, Portuguese.

    More likely scenario – if our lower class whites mix with the Latinos, you’ll still have about 120 million European people, and a similar number of English-speaking castizos, and maybe 100 million mestizos. Black numbers are the same, and will remain an underclass, probably pushed even further under by the newcomers. Also doesn’t add up to a third world country. Overall would no longer be richer capita than the UK, France or Germany (assuming these somehow stay the same as they are now) but still be richer than southern Europe.

    The Somalis already have a foothold here for instance. If we let them, what’s to stop half of Somalia from moving here?

    Somalia has 14 million people so even half of Somalia came to the USA it would not be game-changing.

    But Europe is closer to Africa and there are more Somalis in Europe than there are in the USA. There are about 340,000 Somalis in the EU + UK, vs. 135,000 in the USA.

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    • Replies: @Thorfinnsson
    The worst case scenario is a lot worse than you think. There are six billion people in the world poorer than Mexicans.

    Opinion polls show that there are 700 million people who want to move to the United States.

    http://www.pewglobal.org/2018/03/22/at-least-a-million-sub-saharan-africans-moved-to-europe-since-2010/

    One quarter of Nigerians say they plan to emigrate in the next five years.

    And now it's an increasingly mainstream position in the Democratic Party that all immigration controls should be abolished. Lots of Republican officeholders are also still open borders cucks.

    The worst case isn't that America becomes half America, half Latin America. The worst case is that America becomes South Africa.

    , @Mr. XYZ
    The Black population is still increasing in the United States. Due to Africa's population explosion, there is a lot of potential for a significant increase in the U.S. Black population even if one selects for IQ; after all, out of 4 billion Sub-Saharan Africans (these are the projections for 2100), there should be about 500 million people with IQs in the triple digits.
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  59. Ilya says:
    @Daniel Chieh

    Japan is a high-trust, high-IQ society, and its debt overhang has resulted in 30 years (and counting) of economic stagnation.
     
    Japan is far less dynamic than China, actually, with much of its structure organized in a fashion that is extremely difficult to change since it has both formal and informal elements. It has its upsides, but its one of the reasons why once stuck in a rut, its very difficult for them to emerge from it.

    Lifetime employment, for example, is still considered a serious prospect in Japan, often with jobs reliant on setting up connections from even as far back as high school clubs; such a thing is laughable in China(or the US, for that matter). You last as long as you are useful.

    Its not the most pleasant for the employees, but it does mean that everything moves fast and can respond much quicker.

    “You last as long as you are useful?”

    Like those black holes commonly referred to as “SOEs”?

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    • Replies: @Daniel Chieh
    I actually mentioned them in my post but removed it during editing, as they're kind of a special case. SOEs are indeed black holes of dysfunction, but they're recognized as such and thus can be seen as social welfare. They're also targeted if needed and no easy way to shield themselves from Party interest.

    Japanese zombies, on the other hand, are so mixed and linked with nonzombies that its much harder to fix things.
    , @Anonymous
    Uhhh dude. Look at companies like Theranos and Tesla. Might as well throw all of Walstreet in with that as well in America.
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  60. @Anatoly Karlin
    While EE video games are a great niche product, Russia itself seems to be underrepresented in that sphere.

    Stalker and Metro 2033 are both made by a Ukrainian (now based in Cyprus) company, though both are originally Russian cultural products - even if Glukhovsky is a svidomy.

    KCD is Czech.

    So is the company that made Operation Flashpoint, and then messed up DayZ.

    World of Tanks is Belorussian.

    Underrail is made by a single dedicated Serb.

    Poland is ofc a powerhouse with The Witcher, and soon Cyberpunk 2077.

    Only Russian games that come up in my mind are the old Il-2 Sturmovik simulator, Pathologic (extremely niche), and Escape from Tarkov (I don't know how that's doing). Oh and War Thunder, of course.

    But none of those combined add up to the cultural impact of just Stalker, The Witcher, or even World of Tanks.

    As someone who occasionally plays Disciples 2 and HOMM 5 to this day, I humbly disagree.

    Here’s something good from the dvach /v/:

    Most of these games are Russian.

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    • Replies: @Anatoly Karlin
    How could I have forgotten about Cossacks.

    Another excellent Ukrainian-made game. Better than Age of Empires IMO. (I'm talking about the old ones, which I played in the early 2000s).
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  61. Ilya says:

    More generally: Is Xi’s consolidation of power a tacit admission that the wheels are about to come off the cart and that a strong hand will be needed once this happens?

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    • Replies: @Daniel Chieh
    No. Lack of centralization had its upsides, but also led to retarded things like provincial governments wasting huge of amounts of money competing against each other or powerful cities ignoring Beijing and doing whatever they wanted.

    At least in theory, centralization improves function.
    , @Duke of Qin
    This is the kind of Talmudic "have you stopped beating your wife" rhetorical attack posing as a question that I really despise.
    , @Anonymous
    Probably China knows that a war, economic or military, is coming and they wanted to maintain the same leadership structure.
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  62. @Ilya
    "You last as long as you are useful?"

    Like those black holes commonly referred to as "SOEs"?

    I actually mentioned them in my post but removed it during editing, as they’re kind of a special case. SOEs are indeed black holes of dysfunction, but they’re recognized as such and thus can be seen as social welfare. They’re also targeted if needed and no easy way to shield themselves from Party interest.

    Japanese zombies, on the other hand, are so mixed and linked with nonzombies that its much harder to fix things.

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  63. @Ilya
    More generally: Is Xi's consolidation of power a tacit admission that the wheels are about to come off the cart and that a strong hand will be needed once this happens?

    No. Lack of centralization had its upsides, but also led to retarded things like provincial governments wasting huge of amounts of money competing against each other or powerful cities ignoring Beijing and doing whatever they wanted.

    At least in theory, centralization improves function.

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  64. @AP

    After Trump there’s the possibility of mass immigration from Central America, Venezuela, the Caribbean, or even Africa. And really, the average manufacturing wage in Mexico is $2.80/hour. I don’t see why Mexican immigration won’t pick back up as US wages and employment continue to climb.
     
    Worst case scenario - America becomes half America, half Latin America. There will be 180 million people of European origins, 180 million or so Latinos, 40 million blacks. This doesn't add up to a third world country, given most of Latin America itself is middle income and the Latinos here already are no poorer than, say, Portuguese.

    More likely scenario - if our lower class whites mix with the Latinos, you'll still have about 120 million European people, and a similar number of English-speaking castizos, and maybe 100 million mestizos. Black numbers are the same, and will remain an underclass, probably pushed even further under by the newcomers. Also doesn't add up to a third world country. Overall would no longer be richer capita than the UK, France or Germany (assuming these somehow stay the same as they are now) but still be richer than southern Europe.

    The Somalis already have a foothold here for instance. If we let them, what’s to stop half of Somalia from moving here?
     
    Somalia has 14 million people so even half of Somalia came to the USA it would not be game-changing.

    But Europe is closer to Africa and there are more Somalis in Europe than there are in the USA. There are about 340,000 Somalis in the EU + UK, vs. 135,000 in the USA.

    The worst case scenario is a lot worse than you think. There are six billion people in the world poorer than Mexicans.

    Opinion polls show that there are 700 million people who want to move to the United States.

    http://www.pewglobal.org/2018/03/22/at-least-a-million-sub-saharan-africans-moved-to-europe-since-2010/

    One quarter of Nigerians say they plan to emigrate in the next five years.

    And now it’s an increasingly mainstream position in the Democratic Party that all immigration controls should be abolished. Lots of Republican officeholders are also still open borders cucks.

    The worst case isn’t that America becomes half America, half Latin America. The worst case is that America becomes South Africa.

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    • Replies: @LondonBob
    I don't expect Trump will change things long term, 2024 will be a Dem or Paul Ryan Republican, the US is done. Debt to GDP is terrible and will blow out next recession. The political dysfunction in the US leads me to believe civil war to be the best option, but the US lacks the blood and soil nationalism Europe has.
    , @AP
    Western Europe is still much easier to get to and its politicians much more amenable to migration. While your worst case isn't absolutely impossible for the USA, it's something that is well outside a realistic likelihood, in my opinion. Among likely possibilities, best case is European-Americans down to 48% plurality, worst case 1/3 European-Americans plus Asians , 1/3 Anglicized half-Euros/half Mestizos , 1/3 unassimilated Latinos and Africans. A more European and far wealthier version of Brazil, built on an an Anglo rather than Portuguese platform and with Mestizos rather than Mulattos, still a military, nuclear, space, technological superpower and magnet for cognitive elites. More crowded and less free, requiring more gated communities and such things. Still not close to being a third world country.
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  65. LondonBob says:
    @Dmitry

    When Japan’s economy was booming in 1980s, there was real fear among Americans (including Trump) that Japs will take over, and look how that turned out.
     
    Japan's economy is in stagnation (at a high level) for the last 30 years. And their military power ended since 1945.

    What's interesting in recent years, is their cultural power continues to grow.

    After end of Soviet Union, there was only one dominant cultural influence in the world - the American one.

    The change for the latest generation (for people who are teenagers now) is that there are actually two dominant cultural influences - the American one, and also to lesser extent, the Japanese/South Korean one.

    It is not anymore complete American unipolar domination - already there are now two important global cultural influences or fashions (American and Japanese).

    This is pretty interesting, because you would imagine Japanese culture is too alien and language barrier is too much for (European language based nationalities), and yet Japanese still have growing cultural influence over a segment of the youth.

    What we can predict for second half of the 20th century, is a rising cultural influence potential from China. But this will not come from China until there is a lot more economic development in China, and an internal cultural renaissance, which there is no sign of yet. Currently Chinese culture is vastly less developed and attractive than the Japanese or even South Korean one.

    For a rise of Russian cultural domination, it should theoretically be easier, since language barrier is far less. Yet it is the same story as China currently - somehow not enough original new developments. The representatives of the creative class not producing an exportable culture, beyond to Russian speaking nationalities. The greatest success - Masha and Bear, only working on unimportant demographic of 5 year olds.

    I grew up playing NES, Gameboy, SNES and then Playstation. Japan has a lot of cultural influence through that. Japan doesn’t have the population China does, China is a colussus, on every metric dominant already.

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    • Replies: @Dmitry
    Japan's economic rise was peaking in the 1980s, and their geopolitical and industrial prestige was probably highest in 1990s - yet their popular cultural influence is continuing to grow in the 2000s and 2010s.

    Japan's popular culture influence is also more strong among people who are teenagers now, than among people who are in their 20s now. It's significantly increasing since the 2000s, and perhaps there is a constantly growing international audience of hikikomori to consume it.

    Even if you think about Playstation - we used to play these without really being aware they were Japanese. Whereas now groups of teenagers are doing anime festivals in many cities.

    In China's case, cultural exportation is far less currently, despite far larger population. Japan (and to a lesser extent South Korea) is appearing to be many times more culturally productive than China, not just in per capita terms, but even in absolute terms.

    -

    With the language barrier though, Japanese cultural influence much more visual, while American influence is more verbal. Visually already there was an influence of men like Hokusai on European art of the late 19th century. But it was for many years only an elite culture.

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  66. LondonBob says:
    @Anonymous
    Not crazy during the 80s.

    Japan looked unstoppable and if they did not make a lot of mistakes during that time by sticking to mercantilism and pegging their currency to the dollar, Japan could have pulled it off.

    Japan just went through the economic pains of transitioning to an older society with a stagnant population, much the same process is happening in Europe, where strong economic growth will remain elusive. GDP per capita Japan has done well, and their TFR has picked up.

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  67. LondonBob says:
    @Thorfinnsson
    There was also growing anger in many Western countries at Tokugawa Japan at that time owing to Japan's isolationist policy being so extreme that they refused to assist victims of shipwrecks or to sell provisions to foreign ships.

    In the Morrison Incident of 1837 the Japanese bombarded an American ship which was attempting to return shipwrecked Japanese to Japan.

    Healthy xenophobia.

    Trade and war go together.

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  68. @Ilya
    More generally: Is Xi's consolidation of power a tacit admission that the wheels are about to come off the cart and that a strong hand will be needed once this happens?

    This is the kind of Talmudic “have you stopped beating your wife” rhetorical attack posing as a question that I really despise.

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    • Replies: @Ilya
    That was an honest question.

    Another: Is the Chinese government more concerned with internal stability or external threats?

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  69. Anonymous[392] • Disclaimer says:
    @Ilya
    More generally: Is Xi's consolidation of power a tacit admission that the wheels are about to come off the cart and that a strong hand will be needed once this happens?

    Probably China knows that a war, economic or military, is coming and they wanted to maintain the same leadership structure.

    Read More
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  70. utu says:
    @German_reader

    The American empire also came about as a result of reluctantly getting engaged in a couple of large European wars
     
    It started before that with the Spanish-American war, and there were many US interventions in Latin America in the early 20th century that had no connection to anything the European powers were doing. And in some ways it may go back even farther (e.g. the opening of Japan to foreign trade by Commodore Perry's squadron; there was also an American military intervention in Korea as far back as 1871). I don't think it can be said that the US just became an imperial power because Europeans dragged her into that role.

    More worldly founding fathers like Thomas Jefferson knew that America was destined to be a super power. Masonic lodges and various gentlemen clubs where the think tanks of those days. People talked about things including expansion and domination. It was taken for granted even before the declaration of independence was signed that Spanish colonies like Cuba or Puerto Rico would become a part of the US. Then the idea of dominating Souther American all the way to Tierra del Fuego became quite popular among the Southerners before the Civil War.

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    • Replies: @Daniel Chieh
    Can you link? I remember only wild speculation but I doubt there was any confidence. England was, after all, both very powerful and quite hostile to the newly formed US and the first priority was survival.
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  71. LondonBob says:
    @Thorfinnsson
    The worst case scenario is a lot worse than you think. There are six billion people in the world poorer than Mexicans.

    Opinion polls show that there are 700 million people who want to move to the United States.

    http://www.pewglobal.org/2018/03/22/at-least-a-million-sub-saharan-africans-moved-to-europe-since-2010/

    One quarter of Nigerians say they plan to emigrate in the next five years.

    And now it's an increasingly mainstream position in the Democratic Party that all immigration controls should be abolished. Lots of Republican officeholders are also still open borders cucks.

    The worst case isn't that America becomes half America, half Latin America. The worst case is that America becomes South Africa.

    I don’t expect Trump will change things long term, 2024 will be a Dem or Paul Ryan Republican, the US is done. Debt to GDP is terrible and will blow out next recession. The political dysfunction in the US leads me to believe civil war to be the best option, but the US lacks the blood and soil nationalism Europe has.

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  72. Anonymous[392] • Disclaimer says:
    @Ilya
    "You last as long as you are useful?"

    Like those black holes commonly referred to as "SOEs"?

    Uhhh dude. Look at companies like Theranos and Tesla. Might as well throw all of Walstreet in with that as well in America.

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  73. @Dmitry
    There might be more initial barrier, but at a higher level the languages are still really similar (because of the grammar and lots of inflections though, it's unusual for English people not to do a lot of grammatical mistakes).

    The main European languages are really similar though, particularly sharing so much vocabulary, and above all, the higher vocabulary (academic vocabulary) is mostly shared. So even a person who is far from perfect can still communicate at a sophisticated level.

    I like to learn languages in a lazy way (just watching some videos, reading articles, and writing on places like here), without studying too much. For English and Spanish, this is not a problem.

    I could learn to understand Spanish last year, without much effort (just watching some videos and reading text - and checking the words on the translator).

    But I was trying seriously to learn a non-European language recently - and it's a major shock (when you can learn the words, understand the sense of sentences, speech and even texts, but the order of the words still makes no sense, so that expressing yourself is almost impossible).

    With non-European languages, the level of difficulty is so much higher and language barrier suddenly seems like a high wall.

    Japanese is much easier because phonetically it’s similar to European languages.
    I’ve picked up a lot of Japanese simply by watching anime.

    Korean is more alien, but less so than Chinese, and has the best writing system among the East Asian languages.

    Chinese is truly alien to the European ear. Vietnamese also seems pretty impossible for me.

    Read More
    • Replies: @Mitleser

    Vietnamese also seems pretty impossible for me.
     
    Huh.

    https://twitter.com/CarlZha/status/1026646616181071872
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  74. utu says:
    @Anonymous
    Not crazy during the 80s.

    Japan looked unstoppable and if they did not make a lot of mistakes during that time by sticking to mercantilism and pegging their currency to the dollar, Japan could have pulled it off.

    Japan looked unstoppable and if they did not make a lot of mistakes during that time by sticking to mercantilism and pegging their currency to the dollar, Japan could have pulled it off.

    Japan was stopped because it looked unstoppable and not because it made mistakes. I hope that somebody in China is studying this very seriously. Intuitively Chinese know that keeping a head low and not making too much noise is the best approach but after the loudmouth Trump call on them and start vilify China more than camouflage and dissimulation is needed.

    Read More
    • Replies: @Mitleser
    Not Trump, it is the GOP that is the problem.

    This background brings us to the just-announced 2016 GOP platform . No longer is China’s rise welcomed or even offered the “democratic conditional.” The language has taken a sharp turn. “China’s behavior has negated the optimistic language of our last platform concerning our future relations with China. The liberalizing policies of recent decades have been abruptly reversed, dissent brutally crushed, religious persecution heightened, the internet crippled, a barbaric population control two-child policy of forced abortions and forced sterilizations continued, and the cult of Mao revived.”

    To add to this “Chinese reversal,” the platform condemns China for asserting “a preposterous claim to the entire South China Sea,” reclaiming islands, building “landing fields in contested waters” and “building a navy far out of proportion to defensive purposes.” All of these transgressions are said to be a result of “the complacency of the Obama regime” and its “unilateral approach to disarmament.” The platform finds particularly offensive China’s 2015 Victory Day parade, which celebrated the seventieth anniversary of China’s defeat of Japan in WWII, its first such celebration. To add to it all, “cultural genocide continues in Tibet and Xinjiang, the promised autonomy of Hong Kong is eroded, the currency is manipulated, our technology is stolen, and intellectual property and copyrights are mocked in an economy based on piracy.”
     

    By 2016, the GOP has given up hoping that China will democratize. Without this hope, the GOP platform has become totally disillusioned—even trade relations have been cast aside, for they are portrayed as benefitting only China. China is now understood to be a dangerous dragon that needs to be restrained by the might of a revived American military that possesses “vast superiority over any other nation or group of nations in the world.”
     
    https://nationalinterest.org/blog/the-skeptics/how-the-gop-stopped-loving-china-17088?page=2%2C
    , @Anonymous
    It was a 2 way street with Japan.

    They were stopped by the west, but the Japanese elite accepted this.
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  75. @utu
    More worldly founding fathers like Thomas Jefferson knew that America was destined to be a super power. Masonic lodges and various gentlemen clubs where the think tanks of those days. People talked about things including expansion and domination. It was taken for granted even before the declaration of independence was signed that Spanish colonies like Cuba or Puerto Rico would become a part of the US. Then the idea of dominating Souther American all the way to Tierra del Fuego became quite popular among the Southerners before the Civil War.

    Can you link? I remember only wild speculation but I doubt there was any confidence. England was, after all, both very powerful and quite hostile to the newly formed US and the first priority was survival.

    Read More
    • Replies: @German_reader

    England was, after all, both very powerful and quite hostile
     
    I don't think there was really much hostility by Britain towards the early US, there had been not inconsiderable sympathy for the colonists in sectors of the British population (non-conformists especially) during the war of independence; and iirc the economic links didn't suffer permanent damage, with things going on after US independence much as before.
    Thomas Jefferson was president when the US acquired the huge Louisiana territory, he must have known that the US would likely turn into a continental power.
    , @utu
    I just did a little bit of googling. Mostly wiki. I think books by Francis Jennings should be consulted.

    Benjamin Franklin's writing that "the Prince that acquires new Territory ... removes the Natives to give his own People Room ... may be properly called [Father] of [his] Nation"

    George Washington's description of the early United States as an "infant empire"

    Thomas Jefferson in the 1790s, awaited the fall of the Spanish Empire "until our population can be sufficiently advanced to gain it from them piece by piece"

    Thomas Jefferson's statement that the United States "must be viewed as the nest from which all America, North & South is to be peopled"

    Thomas Jefferson (1790): "We shall divert through our own Country a branch of commerce which the European States have thought worthy of the most important struggles and sacrifices, and in the event of peace [ending the American Revolution]...we shall form to the American union a barrier against the dangerous extension of the British Province of Canada and add to the Empire of Liberty an extensive and fertile Country thereby converting dangerous Enemies into valuable friends."

    Thomas Jefferson (1809) "we should then have only to include the North [Canada] in our confederacy...and we should have such an empire for liberty as she has never surveyed since the creation: & I am persuaded no constitution was ever before so well calculated as ours for extensive empire & self government."

    Thomas Jefferson (1823) wrote to President James Monroe from his home at Monticello, under date of October 24, 1823: "I have ever looked upon Cuba as the most interesting addition which could ever be made to our system of States
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  76. Mitleser says:
    @Spisarevski
    Japanese is much easier because phonetically it's similar to European languages.
    I've picked up a lot of Japanese simply by watching anime.

    Korean is more alien, but less so than Chinese, and has the best writing system among the East Asian languages.

    Chinese is truly alien to the European ear. Vietnamese also seems pretty impossible for me.

    Vietnamese also seems pretty impossible for me.

    Huh.

    Read More
    • Replies: @Spisarevski
    Whose quote is that about Burmese, I don't get it.
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  77. Dmitry says:
    @LondonBob
    I grew up playing NES, Gameboy, SNES and then Playstation. Japan has a lot of cultural influence through that. Japan doesn't have the population China does, China is a colussus, on every metric dominant already.

    Japan’s economic rise was peaking in the 1980s, and their geopolitical and industrial prestige was probably highest in 1990s – yet their popular cultural influence is continuing to grow in the 2000s and 2010s.

    Japan’s popular culture influence is also more strong among people who are teenagers now, than among people who are in their 20s now. It’s significantly increasing since the 2000s, and perhaps there is a constantly growing international audience of hikikomori to consume it.

    Even if you think about Playstation – we used to play these without really being aware they were Japanese. Whereas now groups of teenagers are doing anime festivals in many cities.

    In China’s case, cultural exportation is far less currently, despite far larger population. Japan (and to a lesser extent South Korea) is appearing to be many times more culturally productive than China, not just in per capita terms, but even in absolute terms.

    -

    With the language barrier though, Japanese cultural influence much more visual, while American influence is more verbal. Visually already there was an influence of men like Hokusai on European art of the late 19th century. But it was for many years only an elite culture.

    Read More
    • Replies: @Daniel Chieh
    Japan has a really, really high artistic output. I recall a study found that as a small country, it produces as much free, unpaid volunteer art on gelbroo as the entire continent of North America on deviantart; vast franchises have started based on the hobby work of butchers working full time.

    There's no sane way to compete with that.
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  78. Mitleser says:
    @utu

    Japan looked unstoppable and if they did not make a lot of mistakes during that time by sticking to mercantilism and pegging their currency to the dollar, Japan could have pulled it off.
     
    Japan was stopped because it looked unstoppable and not because it made mistakes. I hope that somebody in China is studying this very seriously. Intuitively Chinese know that keeping a head low and not making too much noise is the best approach but after the loudmouth Trump call on them and start vilify China more than camouflage and dissimulation is needed.

    Not Trump, it is the GOP that is the problem.

    This background brings us to the just-announced 2016 GOP platform . No longer is China’s rise welcomed or even offered the “democratic conditional.” The language has taken a sharp turn. “China’s behavior has negated the optimistic language of our last platform concerning our future relations with China. The liberalizing policies of recent decades have been abruptly reversed, dissent brutally crushed, religious persecution heightened, the internet crippled, a barbaric population control two-child policy of forced abortions and forced sterilizations continued, and the cult of Mao revived.”

    To add to this “Chinese reversal,” the platform condemns China for asserting “a preposterous claim to the entire South China Sea,” reclaiming islands, building “landing fields in contested waters” and “building a navy far out of proportion to defensive purposes.” All of these transgressions are said to be a result of “the complacency of the Obama regime” and its “unilateral approach to disarmament.” The platform finds particularly offensive China’s 2015 Victory Day parade, which celebrated the seventieth anniversary of China’s defeat of Japan in WWII, its first such celebration. To add to it all, “cultural genocide continues in Tibet and Xinjiang, the promised autonomy of Hong Kong is eroded, the currency is manipulated, our technology is stolen, and intellectual property and copyrights are mocked in an economy based on piracy.”

    By 2016, the GOP has given up hoping that China will democratize. Without this hope, the GOP platform has become totally disillusioned—even trade relations have been cast aside, for they are portrayed as benefitting only China. China is now understood to be a dangerous dragon that needs to be restrained by the might of a revived American military that possesses “vast superiority over any other nation or group of nations in the world.”

    https://nationalinterest.org/blog/the-skeptics/how-the-gop-stopped-loving-china-17088?page=2%2C

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  79. @Dmitry
    If it's not an option (until around this year if I recall, it is being trialled) permitted for final exams, it doesn't help get you to university. At the moment (until Chinese is fully introduced) it is only English, French, German and Spanish.

    All those options you can learn by yourself when you are older (because of their similarity), whereas Chinese is non-European language, so classroom instruction could be a helpful foundation.

    Language teaching in the schools is generally poor - but for languages like Chinese it could matter less anyway (I imagine beginning stages is just memorizing characters).

    If we're educating kids for practical future, options should be updated as English, Spanish, German, Chinese and (maybe?) Japanese.

    If it’s not an option… permitted for final exams, it doesn’t help get you to university.

    I know. Losers don’t learn Chinese. They go to university.

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  80. @Dmitry

    When Japan’s economy was booming in 1980s, there was real fear among Americans (including Trump) that Japs will take over, and look how that turned out.
     
    Japan's economy is in stagnation (at a high level) for the last 30 years. And their military power ended since 1945.

    What's interesting in recent years, is their cultural power continues to grow.

    After end of Soviet Union, there was only one dominant cultural influence in the world - the American one.

    The change for the latest generation (for people who are teenagers now) is that there are actually two dominant cultural influences - the American one, and also to lesser extent, the Japanese/South Korean one.

    It is not anymore complete American unipolar domination - already there are now two important global cultural influences or fashions (American and Japanese).

    This is pretty interesting, because you would imagine Japanese culture is too alien and language barrier is too much for (European language based nationalities), and yet Japanese still have growing cultural influence over a segment of the youth.

    What we can predict for second half of the 20th century, is a rising cultural influence potential from China. But this will not come from China until there is a lot more economic development in China, and an internal cultural renaissance, which there is no sign of yet. Currently Chinese culture is vastly less developed and attractive than the Japanese or even South Korean one.

    For a rise of Russian cultural domination, it should theoretically be easier, since language barrier is far less. Yet it is the same story as China currently - somehow not enough original new developments. The representatives of the creative class not producing an exportable culture, beyond to Russian speaking nationalities. The greatest success - Masha and Bear, only working on unimportant demographic of 5 year olds.

    My theory on the underwhelming Chinese pop culture is that the censorship represses creativity.

    Japan has true freedom of speech (to the point where cartoon pedophilia is allowed) which is why they go crazy with originality, and they do.

    Korea as far as I understand has a much bigger local SJW equivalent problem and the laws aren’t as permissive, which is why they have some cool movies for example but they are significantly behind Japan even after accounting for the population difference.

    I don’t buy the theory that the differences are genetic – Chinese, Koreans and Japanese are the same race and equal between each other as far as I’m concerned. IQ studies seem to confirm this.

    Anyway Hollywood soft power is on the wane. In America itself people are getting more and more sick of what is being shoved down their throats.

    In the last couple of years I’ve watched more Russian movies than Hollywood ones lol – 3 vs 2 (The Duelist, Attraction and Kolovrat from the Russian side and “Blade Runner 2049″ and “Death Wish” on the other).
    And interestingly enough, all my normie friends that I used to go to the cinema with tell me the same thing – that they have stopped going and almost stopped watching hollywood movies. They certainly don’t do it for political reasons/disgust of jews as I do, but eventually political conformity undermines creativity, whether in Beijing or LA.

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  81. @Dmitry
    Japan's economic rise was peaking in the 1980s, and their geopolitical and industrial prestige was probably highest in 1990s - yet their popular cultural influence is continuing to grow in the 2000s and 2010s.

    Japan's popular culture influence is also more strong among people who are teenagers now, than among people who are in their 20s now. It's significantly increasing since the 2000s, and perhaps there is a constantly growing international audience of hikikomori to consume it.

    Even if you think about Playstation - we used to play these without really being aware they were Japanese. Whereas now groups of teenagers are doing anime festivals in many cities.

    In China's case, cultural exportation is far less currently, despite far larger population. Japan (and to a lesser extent South Korea) is appearing to be many times more culturally productive than China, not just in per capita terms, but even in absolute terms.

    -

    With the language barrier though, Japanese cultural influence much more visual, while American influence is more verbal. Visually already there was an influence of men like Hokusai on European art of the late 19th century. But it was for many years only an elite culture.

    Japan has a really, really high artistic output. I recall a study found that as a small country, it produces as much free, unpaid volunteer art on gelbroo as the entire continent of North America on deviantart; vast franchises have started based on the hobby work of butchers working full time.

    There’s no sane way to compete with that.

    Read More
    • Replies: @AaronB
    Maybe the relative economic security the Japanese enjoy allows them to devote much more time to art.
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  82. @Mitleser

    Vietnamese also seems pretty impossible for me.
     
    Huh.

    https://twitter.com/CarlZha/status/1026646616181071872

    Whose quote is that about Burmese, I don’t get it.

    Read More
    • Replies: @Mitleser
    Not sure why the rest of the tweet was not shown.

    https://twitter.com/CarlZha/status/1026646616181071872
    https://pbs.twimg.com/media/Dj9hp3yUUAMZjT_.jpg
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  83. @Daniel Chieh
    Can you link? I remember only wild speculation but I doubt there was any confidence. England was, after all, both very powerful and quite hostile to the newly formed US and the first priority was survival.

    England was, after all, both very powerful and quite hostile

    I don’t think there was really much hostility by Britain towards the early US, there had been not inconsiderable sympathy for the colonists in sectors of the British population (non-conformists especially) during the war of independence; and iirc the economic links didn’t suffer permanent damage, with things going on after US independence much as before.
    Thomas Jefferson was president when the US acquired the huge Louisiana territory, he must have known that the US would likely turn into a continental power.

    Read More
    • Replies: @Daniel Chieh
    No doubt a continental power, but if I recall correctly, England went for awhile believing that the US would collapse on its own, impressed US sailors into their fleets, and feared American intervention in Canada. The latter two would result in the War of 1812, and indeed led to American invasions of Canada.
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  84. @German_reader

    England was, after all, both very powerful and quite hostile
     
    I don't think there was really much hostility by Britain towards the early US, there had been not inconsiderable sympathy for the colonists in sectors of the British population (non-conformists especially) during the war of independence; and iirc the economic links didn't suffer permanent damage, with things going on after US independence much as before.
    Thomas Jefferson was president when the US acquired the huge Louisiana territory, he must have known that the US would likely turn into a continental power.

    No doubt a continental power, but if I recall correctly, England went for awhile believing that the US would collapse on its own, impressed US sailors into their fleets, and feared American intervention in Canada. The latter two would result in the War of 1812, and indeed led to American invasions of Canada.

    Read More
    • Replies: @utu

    The latter two would result in the War of 1812, and indeed led to American invasions of Canada.
     
    The wars usually get their names after they end. American invasions of Canada was first before it got buried in American historiography as War of 1812. British occupation of Washington DC was reactive.

    http://theweek.com/articles/473482/americas-invasion-canada-brief-history
    It was the closest British colony, but Madison also had political reasons for targeting America's northern neighbor. His Democratic-Republican Party drew much of its support from the rural South and what was then the American West — the territory stretching up the Mississippi basin to the Great Lakes. Frontier inhabitants were eager to strike at the British in Canada because they suspected them of arming Native American tribes that were standing in the way of America's westward expansion. Many Americans also believed that the invasion would be a cakewalk, and that ordinary Canadians were keen to shake off their British overlords. The "acquisition of Canada," predicted former President Thomas Jefferson, "will be a mere matter of marching."
     
    Anyway it does not seem that British ever wanted to destroy the regime of "slave drivers yelping for liberty."
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  85. LondonBob says:
    @reiner Tor
    Let alone that most dominant powers (like the Roman Empire) came about not because they had a master plan to conquer (like Hitler in the Mein Kampf and the Second Book), but because they kept facing security problems and solved them by annexing ever further territories. I think the British in India originally just wanted to monopolize trade (and make a lot of money), but eventually had to fight their rivals, and then this resulted in the East India Company becoming dominant over an ever increasing part of India. Then Britain had to take over after the Indian Rebellion. The British then felt the need to take over areas (like Suez, and the whole of Egypt) to secure trade routes to India, or to prevent European rivals from acquiring areas. Some of their conquests came about as a result of settlers simply settling largely uninhabited areas (like Australia). And some as a result of greed (like originally India, or Rhodesia). I don't think any of it was a result of some inborn British desire to "dominate" the world or a large part of its surface area.

    The American empire also came about as a result of reluctantly getting engaged in a couple of large European wars, and then trying to avert the risk of Europe (and East Asia) being conquered by the USSR or local communists.

    I bet you the Chinese empire will evolve the same way, a military base here to secure a trade route, another military base there, then other military bases to protect the existing ones, allies to protect further allies, etc. Eventually it could easily encompass the whole world, without any need for any "dominance gene."

    OBOR and the string of pearls are China’s move to establish hegemony over the Eurasian landmass, similar moves have been made in Africa. The military secures trade routes. Chinese are inward looking with a focus on commerce, they will establish a benign hegemony.

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  86. AaronB says:
    @Daniel Chieh
    Japan has a really, really high artistic output. I recall a study found that as a small country, it produces as much free, unpaid volunteer art on gelbroo as the entire continent of North America on deviantart; vast franchises have started based on the hobby work of butchers working full time.

    There's no sane way to compete with that.

    Maybe the relative economic security the Japanese enjoy allows them to devote much more time to art.

    Read More
    • Replies: @Daniel Chieh
    Maybe if they had more entrepreneurship, their economy would be less stagnant.

    That said, I do wish that I had more time to devote to art. I miss my NEET days, when I could still hear the voices of the muses.

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  87. neutral says:

    who has no truck with ideologizing foreign policy

    His ideology is Israel, which also means he needs thralls like the USA to be its bodyguard. China being too strong is ultimately a threat to this setup, and thus he will support any measure to make sure this does not happen. If China could be the protector of Israel, he would dump the USA in a second.

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  88. @AaronB
    Maybe the relative economic security the Japanese enjoy allows them to devote much more time to art.

    Maybe if they had more entrepreneurship, their economy would be less stagnant.

    That said, I do wish that I had more time to devote to art. I miss my NEET days, when I could still hear the voices of the muses.

    Read More
    • Replies: @AaronB
    Granted.

    Everything is a trade off. One has only so much energy.

    I'm not actually criticizing the Chinese - focusing on the economy is the right choice for them now. Let them grow powerful. For now.

    But I hope and believe that eventually, China may make Japan's choice.

    Maybe the decline of American military and economic might might lead to an artistic and cultural efflorescence.
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  89. AaronB says:
    @Daniel Chieh
    Maybe if they had more entrepreneurship, their economy would be less stagnant.

    That said, I do wish that I had more time to devote to art. I miss my NEET days, when I could still hear the voices of the muses.

    Granted.

    Everything is a trade off. One has only so much energy.

    I’m not actually criticizing the Chinese – focusing on the economy is the right choice for them now. Let them grow powerful. For now.

    But I hope and believe that eventually, China may make Japan’s choice.

    Maybe the decline of American military and economic might might lead to an artistic and cultural efflorescence.

    Read More
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  90. Trump administration to hit Russia with new sanctions for Skripal poisoning

    The Trump administration is hitting Russia with new sanctions punishing President Vladimir Putin’s government for using a chemical weapon against an ex-spy in Britain, U.S. officials told NBC News Wednesday.

    Secretary of State Mike Pompeo signed off on a determination that Russia violated international law by poisoning the former spy, Sergei Skripal, and his daughter in March, officials said, a decision that was announced Wednesday afternoon by State Department . . .

    The biggest impact from the initial sanctions is expected to come from a ban on granting licenses to export sensitive national security goods to Russia, which in the past have included items like electronic devices and components, along with test and calibration equipment for avionics. Prior to the sanctions, such exports were allowed on a case-by-case basis . . .

    A second, more painful round kicks in three months later unless Russia provides “reliable assurances” that it won’t use chemical weapons in the future and agrees to “on-site inspections” by the U.N. — conditions unlikely to be met. The second round of sanctions could include downgrading diplomatic relations, suspending state airline Aeroflot’s ability to fly to the U.S, and cutting off nearly all exports and imports [!].

    https://www.nbcnews.com/politics/donald-trump/trump-administration-hit-russia-new-sanctions-skripal-poisoning-n898856

    Read More
    • Replies: @Daniel Chieh
    Maybe one day they can really be edgy and ban the use of Soyuz, then use the world's largest trampoline to get astronauts to the ISS.
    , @reiner Tor

    suspending state airline Aeroflot’s ability to fly to the U.S, and cutting off nearly all exports and imports
     
    These sanctions are basically just a few short steps from declaring war. Cutting off travel and trade and further reducing diplomatic relations is quite a bit after the previous rounds have already cut these to low levels.

    And all that without any evidence regarding the poisoning at all.

    I don’t quite understand what the endgame of this could or should be. Maybe I’m just prone to worrying too much, but this reminds me of how Saddam was treated between 1991 and 2003. All this is just building up momentum (especially psychologically) for a war against Russia.
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  91. @for-the-record

    Trump administration to hit Russia with new sanctions for Skripal poisoning

    The Trump administration is hitting Russia with new sanctions punishing President Vladimir Putin's government for using a chemical weapon against an ex-spy in Britain, U.S. officials told NBC News Wednesday.

    Secretary of State Mike Pompeo signed off on a determination that Russia violated international law by poisoning the former spy, Sergei Skripal, and his daughter in March, officials said, a decision that was announced Wednesday afternoon by State Department . . .

    The biggest impact from the initial sanctions is expected to come from a ban on granting licenses to export sensitive national security goods to Russia, which in the past have included items like electronic devices and components, along with test and calibration equipment for avionics. Prior to the sanctions, such exports were allowed on a case-by-case basis . . .

    A second, more painful round kicks in three months later unless Russia provides "reliable assurances" that it won't use chemical weapons in the future and agrees to "on-site inspections" by the U.N. — conditions unlikely to be met. The second round of sanctions could include downgrading diplomatic relations, suspending state airline Aeroflot's ability to fly to the U.S, and cutting off nearly all exports and imports [!].

    https://www.nbcnews.com/politics/donald-trump/trump-administration-hit-russia-new-sanctions-skripal-poisoning-n898856
     

    Maybe one day they can really be edgy and ban the use of Soyuz, then use the world’s largest trampoline to get astronauts to the ISS.

    Read More
    • Replies: @Neal
    Well, they will do that once SpaceX and Boeing are ready next year.
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  92. @for-the-record

    Trump administration to hit Russia with new sanctions for Skripal poisoning

    The Trump administration is hitting Russia with new sanctions punishing President Vladimir Putin's government for using a chemical weapon against an ex-spy in Britain, U.S. officials told NBC News Wednesday.

    Secretary of State Mike Pompeo signed off on a determination that Russia violated international law by poisoning the former spy, Sergei Skripal, and his daughter in March, officials said, a decision that was announced Wednesday afternoon by State Department . . .

    The biggest impact from the initial sanctions is expected to come from a ban on granting licenses to export sensitive national security goods to Russia, which in the past have included items like electronic devices and components, along with test and calibration equipment for avionics. Prior to the sanctions, such exports were allowed on a case-by-case basis . . .

    A second, more painful round kicks in three months later unless Russia provides "reliable assurances" that it won't use chemical weapons in the future and agrees to "on-site inspections" by the U.N. — conditions unlikely to be met. The second round of sanctions could include downgrading diplomatic relations, suspending state airline Aeroflot's ability to fly to the U.S, and cutting off nearly all exports and imports [!].

    https://www.nbcnews.com/politics/donald-trump/trump-administration-hit-russia-new-sanctions-skripal-poisoning-n898856
     

    suspending state airline Aeroflot’s ability to fly to the U.S, and cutting off nearly all exports and imports

    These sanctions are basically just a few short steps from declaring war. Cutting off travel and trade and further reducing diplomatic relations is quite a bit after the previous rounds have already cut these to low levels.

    And all that without any evidence regarding the poisoning at all.

    I don’t quite understand what the endgame of this could or should be. Maybe I’m just prone to worrying too much, but this reminds me of how Saddam was treated between 1991 and 2003. All this is just building up momentum (especially psychologically) for a war against Russia.

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  93. Attacking Aeroflot is serious. Kremlin must immediately ban all US airlines from using Russian airspace – this will cost them billions.

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    • Replies: @reiner Tor
    Especially since Russia doesn’t really need the money it gets from western airlines.
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  94. Anonymous[392] • Disclaimer says:
    @utu

    Japan looked unstoppable and if they did not make a lot of mistakes during that time by sticking to mercantilism and pegging their currency to the dollar, Japan could have pulled it off.
     
    Japan was stopped because it looked unstoppable and not because it made mistakes. I hope that somebody in China is studying this very seriously. Intuitively Chinese know that keeping a head low and not making too much noise is the best approach but after the loudmouth Trump call on them and start vilify China more than camouflage and dissimulation is needed.

    It was a 2 way street with Japan.

    They were stopped by the west, but the Japanese elite accepted this.

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  95. @Felix Keverich
    Attacking Aeroflot is serious. Kremlin must immediately ban all US airlines from using Russian airspace - this will cost them billions.

    Especially since Russia doesn’t really need the money it gets from western airlines.

    Read More
    • Replies: @LondonBob
    Trade sanctions last time ended up with the eventual overthrow of the Tsar, more likely they end in the isolation of the US and a premature end to dollar hegemony.

    The US just isn't very relevant to the Russian economy anyway.
    , @Felix Keverich
    Russia needs the money, but it will simply come from the non-American airlines. The air traffic over Siberia is BUSY.
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  96. AP says:
    @Thorfinnsson
    The worst case scenario is a lot worse than you think. There are six billion people in the world poorer than Mexicans.

    Opinion polls show that there are 700 million people who want to move to the United States.

    http://www.pewglobal.org/2018/03/22/at-least-a-million-sub-saharan-africans-moved-to-europe-since-2010/

    One quarter of Nigerians say they plan to emigrate in the next five years.

    And now it's an increasingly mainstream position in the Democratic Party that all immigration controls should be abolished. Lots of Republican officeholders are also still open borders cucks.

    The worst case isn't that America becomes half America, half Latin America. The worst case is that America becomes South Africa.

    Western Europe is still much easier to get to and its politicians much more amenable to migration. While your worst case isn’t absolutely impossible for the USA, it’s something that is well outside a realistic likelihood, in my opinion. Among likely possibilities, best case is European-Americans down to 48% plurality, worst case 1/3 European-Americans plus Asians , 1/3 Anglicized half-Euros/half Mestizos , 1/3 unassimilated Latinos and Africans. A more European and far wealthier version of Brazil, built on an an Anglo rather than Portuguese platform and with Mestizos rather than Mulattos, still a military, nuclear, space, technological superpower and magnet for cognitive elites. More crowded and less free, requiring more gated communities and such things. Still not close to being a third world country.

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    • Replies: @Thorfinnsson
    I agree that your scenario is the likeliest. But we should be mindful of what the worst case possibility is.

    And then of course there's the best case possibility--Karlin's Kommenter Kommandos (KKK for short) come to power in America and initiate Operation Mr. Clean.

    http://gaia.adage.com/images/bin/image/x-large/Mr_Clean_3x2.jpg
    , @LondonBob
    White is an incredibly broad category in the US, and Europeans are dispropotionately concentrated in the baby boomer cohort that is shuffling off in to old age irrelevance.
    , @Felix Keverich
    I don't see how USA could retain its technological edge with these demographics (how is South African science doing?). The Anglo institutions definitely will not survive brownification. The military will be gutted to fund ballooning welfare state.

    The concept of a third-world country will evolve by 2050. Expect the US to simply converge with the rest of Latin America.
    , @Anatoly Karlin
    FWIW I think that's the likeliest version.
    , @Mr. XYZ
    You know, I wonder if a larger percentage of the African population in the U.S. is going to be made up of higher-IQ African immigrants and thus be more capable of assimilation. After all, the U.S. already appears to filter immigrants from places such as India based on their IQs (which is why U.S. Indians appear to be super-smart on average); thus, why not also do this for Sub-Saharan Africa?

    If there will be 4 billion Black Africans, this would mean something like 500 million Black Africans with an IQ in the triple digits. True, there will be some regression towards the mean, but a ~95 IQ Black African population is still superior to an 85 IQ Black African population.
    , @Hyperborean
    I think you are underestimating the dysfunction that the political culture of Latin Americans bring to the US.

    Even with the current numbers, the last election was a very Latin affair, the Caudillo vs Evita.

    I think political culture will gradually shift to a more Latin American format.

    I think political gridlock will increase. And unlike many South American countries where a European-Middle Eastern elite rule, the US race relations mandate more power-sharing. And since racial divisions will most likely become even stronger, more disagreements and disunity within the government will arise.

    Populist dissenters who support short-termist policies will also become more common.

    This doesn't mean that America won't be a liveable place, but it makes me believe that America's great power status and relative world domination will disappear and America will be demoted to a second-rate power.
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  97. Mitleser says:
    @Spisarevski
    Whose quote is that about Burmese, I don't get it.

    Not sure why the rest of the tweet was not shown.

    https://twitter.com/CarlZha/status/1026646616181071872

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  98. @AP
    Western Europe is still much easier to get to and its politicians much more amenable to migration. While your worst case isn't absolutely impossible for the USA, it's something that is well outside a realistic likelihood, in my opinion. Among likely possibilities, best case is European-Americans down to 48% plurality, worst case 1/3 European-Americans plus Asians , 1/3 Anglicized half-Euros/half Mestizos , 1/3 unassimilated Latinos and Africans. A more European and far wealthier version of Brazil, built on an an Anglo rather than Portuguese platform and with Mestizos rather than Mulattos, still a military, nuclear, space, technological superpower and magnet for cognitive elites. More crowded and less free, requiring more gated communities and such things. Still not close to being a third world country.

    I agree that your scenario is the likeliest. But we should be mindful of what the worst case possibility is.

    And then of course there’s the best case possibility–Karlin’s Kommenter Kommandos (KKK for short) come to power in America and initiate Operation Mr. Clean.

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  99. LondonBob says:
    @reiner Tor
    Especially since Russia doesn’t really need the money it gets from western airlines.

    Trade sanctions last time ended up with the eventual overthrow of the Tsar, more likely they end in the isolation of the US and a premature end to dollar hegemony.

    The US just isn’t very relevant to the Russian economy anyway.

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  100. LondonBob says:
    @AP
    Western Europe is still much easier to get to and its politicians much more amenable to migration. While your worst case isn't absolutely impossible for the USA, it's something that is well outside a realistic likelihood, in my opinion. Among likely possibilities, best case is European-Americans down to 48% plurality, worst case 1/3 European-Americans plus Asians , 1/3 Anglicized half-Euros/half Mestizos , 1/3 unassimilated Latinos and Africans. A more European and far wealthier version of Brazil, built on an an Anglo rather than Portuguese platform and with Mestizos rather than Mulattos, still a military, nuclear, space, technological superpower and magnet for cognitive elites. More crowded and less free, requiring more gated communities and such things. Still not close to being a third world country.

    White is an incredibly broad category in the US, and Europeans are dispropotionately concentrated in the baby boomer cohort that is shuffling off in to old age irrelevance.

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  101. @AP
    Western Europe is still much easier to get to and its politicians much more amenable to migration. While your worst case isn't absolutely impossible for the USA, it's something that is well outside a realistic likelihood, in my opinion. Among likely possibilities, best case is European-Americans down to 48% plurality, worst case 1/3 European-Americans plus Asians , 1/3 Anglicized half-Euros/half Mestizos , 1/3 unassimilated Latinos and Africans. A more European and far wealthier version of Brazil, built on an an Anglo rather than Portuguese platform and with Mestizos rather than Mulattos, still a military, nuclear, space, technological superpower and magnet for cognitive elites. More crowded and less free, requiring more gated communities and such things. Still not close to being a third world country.

    I don’t see how USA could retain its technological edge with these demographics (how is South African science doing?). The Anglo institutions definitely will not survive brownification. The military will be gutted to fund ballooning welfare state.

    The concept of a third-world country will evolve by 2050. Expect the US to simply converge with the rest of Latin America.

    Read More
    • Replies: @reiner Tor
    Brazil is still building passenger airplanes. In fact, more of them than Russia. The Brazilian civilian aerospace industry is more competitive than the Russian (or even Canadian) one.

    A triple Brazil with a stronger cognitive elite and thousands of nukes etc. will still be a formidable power.

    The military will be gutted to fund ballooning welfare state.
     
    Many Latin American countries have no welfare state to speak of. Meanwhile, they usually spend enough on their militaries.
    , @Neal
    America will lose its position only when the smart and creative 1% (of the world) no longer live in the US. The question is where will it be attractive for the 1% to live?
    Europe?
    Japan?
    China?
    Russia?
    India?
    Only in the US do I see smart Germans, Chineses, Russians, Poles, Indians, Koreans, Vietnameses, etc... working side by side. Is there somewhere else where they can relocate to?
    Who's the potential new leader to replace the US?

    Your prediction about the US is more about wishful thinking than actual factual analysis.
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  102. Neal says:
    @Daniel Chieh
    Maybe one day they can really be edgy and ban the use of Soyuz, then use the world's largest trampoline to get astronauts to the ISS.

    Well, they will do that once SpaceX and Boeing are ready next year.

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  103. This is a different set of sanctions, independent of the Skripal-related ones reported above:

    Russian newspaper leaks draft text of U.S. Senate’s Defending American Security from Kremlin Aggression Act

    The newspaper Kommersant has published a full draft of the proposed “Defending American Security from Kremlin Aggression Act,” which demands a U.S. investigation into Vladimir Putin’s personal wealth and whether Russia sponsors terrorism, and would impose a ban on U.S. citizens buying Russian sovereign debt, though the U.S. Treasury publicly opposed this idea in February, warning that it would disrupt the market broadly. Republican Senator Lindsey Graham, one of the initiative’s sponsors, says one of the draft legislation’s goals is to impose “crushing sanctions.”

    [Sanctions to include:]

    Banning the banks. The draft bill proposes banning Russia’s biggest state banks — Sberbank, VTV Bank, Gazprombank, Rosselkhozbank, Promsvyazbank, or Vnesheconombank — from operating inside the United States, which would effectively prevent these institutions from conducting dollar settlements.

    Oil and gas.
    In the energy sector, the legislation would impose sanctions on investment in any projects by the Russian government or government-affiliated companies outside Russia worth more than $250 million. Businesses would also incur penalties for any participation (funding or supplying equipment or technology) in new oil projects inside Russia valued above $1 million.

    https://meduza.io/en/news/2018/08/08/russian-newspaper-leaks-draft-text-of-u-s-senate-s-defending-american-security-from-kremlin-aggression-act

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    • Replies: @Anatoly Karlin
    So the reason for Russia's sell-off of Treasury bonds becomes clear.
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  104. @reiner Tor
    Especially since Russia doesn’t really need the money it gets from western airlines.

    Russia needs the money, but it will simply come from the non-American airlines. The air traffic over Siberia is BUSY.

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    • Replies: @reiner Tor
    You have enough from the oil, you cannot spend it anyway.
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  105. @Felix Keverich
    I don't see how USA could retain its technological edge with these demographics (how is South African science doing?). The Anglo institutions definitely will not survive brownification. The military will be gutted to fund ballooning welfare state.

    The concept of a third-world country will evolve by 2050. Expect the US to simply converge with the rest of Latin America.

    Brazil is still building passenger airplanes. In fact, more of them than Russia. The Brazilian civilian aerospace industry is more competitive than the Russian (or even Canadian) one.

    A triple Brazil with a stronger cognitive elite and thousands of nukes etc. will still be a formidable power.

    The military will be gutted to fund ballooning welfare state.

    Many Latin American countries have no welfare state to speak of. Meanwhile, they usually spend enough on their militaries.

    Read More
    • Replies: @LondonBob
    Latin militaries are a joke, even the Argentine junta's well funded military got badly beaten by a British expeditionary force operating far from home. Those USN ships that crashed were captained by Latinos if I recall correctly.

    Brazil is still a shithole, even if the predominantly European south has very nice areas and can function.
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  106. @Felix Keverich
    Russia needs the money, but it will simply come from the non-American airlines. The air traffic over Siberia is BUSY.

    You have enough from the oil, you cannot spend it anyway.

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    • Replies: @Felix Keverich
    Our sanctions must be carefully calibrated to only hurt Americans, and not Russians.

    US is doing a really stupid thing by banning its oil companies from working with Russians in international projects. It means that wherever Russians have even a small presence, American companies will be forced to divest.
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  107. LondonBob says:
    @reiner Tor
    Brazil is still building passenger airplanes. In fact, more of them than Russia. The Brazilian civilian aerospace industry is more competitive than the Russian (or even Canadian) one.

    A triple Brazil with a stronger cognitive elite and thousands of nukes etc. will still be a formidable power.

    The military will be gutted to fund ballooning welfare state.
     
    Many Latin American countries have no welfare state to speak of. Meanwhile, they usually spend enough on their militaries.

    Latin militaries are a joke, even the Argentine junta’s well funded military got badly beaten by a British expeditionary force operating far from home. Those USN ships that crashed were captained by Latinos if I recall correctly.

    Brazil is still a shithole, even if the predominantly European south has very nice areas and can function.

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  108. @reiner Tor
    You have enough from the oil, you cannot spend it anyway.

    Our sanctions must be carefully calibrated to only hurt Americans, and not Russians.

    US is doing a really stupid thing by banning its oil companies from working with Russians in international projects. It means that wherever Russians have even a small presence, American companies will be forced to divest.

    Read More
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  109. Neal says:
    @Felix Keverich
    I don't see how USA could retain its technological edge with these demographics (how is South African science doing?). The Anglo institutions definitely will not survive brownification. The military will be gutted to fund ballooning welfare state.

    The concept of a third-world country will evolve by 2050. Expect the US to simply converge with the rest of Latin America.

    America will lose its position only when the smart and creative 1% (of the world) no longer live in the US. The question is where will it be attractive for the 1% to live?
    Europe?
    Japan?
    China?
    Russia?
    India?
    Only in the US do I see smart Germans, Chineses, Russians, Poles, Indians, Koreans, Vietnameses, etc… working side by side. Is there somewhere else where they can relocate to?
    Who’s the potential new leader to replace the US?

    Your prediction about the US is more about wishful thinking than actual factual analysis.

    Read More
    • Replies: @Felix Keverich

    Only in the US do I see smart Germans, Chineses, Russians, Poles, Indians, Koreans, Vietnameses, etc… working side by side. Is there somewhere else where they can relocate to?
    Who’s the potential new leader to replace the US?
     
    Who says that we need a "leader"? For the record, USA is not the only place in the world that conducts science. And conditions in USA will grow shittier over time, so a greater share of such smart people will simply stay home.

    My predictions about USA are perfectly plausible, but you may be suffering from a certain inertia of your mind like a lot of people here.

    , @dux.ie
    Look at some cold hard data of Weighted Fractional Count (WFC) of scientific research output from NatureIndex.com, an off-shoot of the Nature Journal. USA does not look like able to pull out from its decline.

    http://i65.tinypic.com/2re1e9w.jpg

    There was a question about the ethnic distribution for the proportion of USA WFC score. Well to look at that from a different angle,

    Country Dif WFC12 WFC17
    USA -2937.73 18729.5 15791.8
    China +2938.43 4511.28 7449.71

    It is intriguing that between 2012 and 2017 USA lost -2937.73 points while China gained +2938.43 points, numerical magnitude difference of 0.7 out of about 3000 points. While it is unlikely US's lost was the direct effect of China's gain, China's returnee scientist program has attracted significant researchers internationally to return that there could be a global reverse musical chairs going on with increasing unfilled vacancies.

    Various other countries are attempting to repatriate their own national researchers back to their home countries, e.g.

    https://www.axios.com/canada-has-pulled-off-a-brain-heist-1aba7430-82d5-4316-8008-e039d3964b36.html


    """The "Canada 150 Research Chairs Program" is spending $117 million on seven-year grants of either $350,000 a year or $1 million a year. It's part of a campaign by numerous countries to attract scholars unhappy with Brexit, the election of Donald Trump, and other political trends, sweetened with unusually generous research conditions. Seoul-born Wendy Hui Kyong Chun, a professor at Brown University known for her work on fake news, is moving to Canada. So is Alan Aspuru-Guzik, a Harvard chemistry professor working on quantum computing and artificial intelligence. They are among 24 top academic minds around the world wooed to Canada by an aggressive recruitment effort offering ultra-attractive sinecures, seven-year funding arrangements."""

     

    https://www.theglobalist.com/brexit-is-britain-facing-a-mass-academic-exodus/


    EU research funding has been an important catalyst for this development. It has generated more than 19,000 jobs across the UK and makes up roughly 14% of all UK income from research grants.

    French officials, aware of the importance of elite universities, have made it clear that France wants to build academic bridges besides political difficulties. They offered Oxford to build a new campus in Paris with French legal status and access to EU funding.

    ...

    Another important element of the British success story have been EU students and staff members. More than 15% of teaching and research staff at British universities are EU nationals.

    This includes some of the most highly regarded scientists. Especially the mathematics departments are staffed with a considerable number of academics from Eastern Europe who now feel that they are no longer welcome.

    The world class reputation of British elite research institutions, too, depends on maintaining excellence in particular fields of research such as nuclear fusion or atomic research and this excellence is, in turn, dependent on the input of students and researchers coming from countries such as Hungary, Poland and Romania.

    Accordingly, triggering Article 50 this March could lead to a gold-rush mood at European universities on the continent.

    UK institutions expect German universities, ranking second in the European league table, to be poaching UK-based staff soon.

     

    The rest of the world do not have to get better in scientific research, USA will just drop by. EU with UK will overtake the lead from USA in three years. With Brexit the EU research grants and researchers will leave UK and EU(exUK)'s performance will be better than that indicated.

    EventYr Defender Challenger
    2021.30 USA, EU
    2028.78 USA, EU(exUk)
    2022.38 USA, BRICS
    2024.06 USA, China
    2037.21 USA, Germany
    2037.08 USA, UK

    All 5 BRICS countries had positive increaments, the same cannot be said about the western countries but at these rates it might take India and Russia a long time to overtake EU.

    EventYr Defender Challenger
    2019.14 EU(exUk), BRICS
    2021.49 EU(exUk), China
    2147.66 EU(exUk), Japan
    2055.45 EU(exUk), India
    2059.96 EU(exUk), Russia

    The WFC index does not take into consideration of the research outputs of Engineering and Computer Science. USNew already considered China has the top Engineering and Computer Science courses, and three out of top 10 courses in each category,

    https://www.usnews.com/education/best-global-universities/computer-science
    https://www.usnews.com/education/best-global-universities/engineering

    Various ranking systems tend to favour the home universities. Taking the more neutral ranking from CWUR which is based in UAE, even though most of the elites there tended to be graduates from UK or USA universities,

    http://cwur.org/2017/subjects.php#Computer%20Science,%20Artificial%20Intelligence

    COMPUTER SCIENCE, ARTIFICIAL INTELLIGENCE
    World Rank Institution Score
    1 [Singapore] Nanyang Technological University 100.00
    2 [Hong Kong] Hong Kong Polytechnic University 99.23
    3 [Hong Kong] City University of Hong Kong 96.74
    4 [China] Tsinghua University 95.65
    5 [Singapore] National University of Singapore 93.76
    6 [Taiwan] National Taiwan University of Science and Technology 92.10
    7 [Taiwan] National Cheng Kung University 91.20
    8 [China] Shanghai Jiao Tong University 89.92
    9 [Taiwan] National Chiao Tung University 89.44
    10 [China] Harbin Institute of Technology 89.31

    COMPUTER SCIENCE, HARDWARE & ARCHITECTURE
    World Rank Institution Score
    1 [China] Tsinghua University 100.00
    2 [Singapore] Nanyang Technological University 96.66
    3 [USA] Purdue University 93.44
    4 [Canada] University of Waterloo 93.34
    5 [USA] Georgia Institute of Technology 91.95
    6 [USA] Massachusetts Institute of Technology 89.14
    7 [Taiwan] National Chiao Tung University 88.65
    8 [South Korea] KAIST 88.01
    9 [Hong Kong] Hong Kong University of Science and Technology 87.75
    10 [USA] Princeton University 87.22

    COMPUTER SCIENCE, SOFTWARE ENGINEERING
    World Rank Institution Score
    1 [USA] Stanford University 100.00
    2 [USA] Massachusetts Institute of Technology 99.85
    3 [China] Tsinghua University 99.59
    4 [Switzerland] Swiss Federal Institute of Technology in Zurich 99.02
    5 [China] Zhejiang University 98.86
    6 [USA] Carnegie Mellon University 97.05
    7 [Singapore] Nanyang Technological University 95.89
    8 [USA] Georgia Institute of Technology 95.56
    9 [USA] University of California, Berkeley 94.56
    10 [Canada] University of British Columbia 92.98
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  110. utu says:
    @Daniel Chieh
    Can you link? I remember only wild speculation but I doubt there was any confidence. England was, after all, both very powerful and quite hostile to the newly formed US and the first priority was survival.

    I just did a little bit of googling. Mostly wiki. I think books by Francis Jennings should be consulted.

    Benjamin Franklin’s writing that “the Prince that acquires new Territory … removes the Natives to give his own People Room … may be properly called [Father] of [his] Nation”

    George Washington’s description of the early United States as an “infant empire”

    Thomas Jefferson in the 1790s, awaited the fall of the Spanish Empire “until our population can be sufficiently advanced to gain it from them piece by piece”

    Thomas Jefferson’s statement that the United States “must be viewed as the nest from which all America, North & South is to be peopled”

    Thomas Jefferson (1790): “We shall divert through our own Country a branch of commerce which the European States have thought worthy of the most important struggles and sacrifices, and in the event of peace [ending the American Revolution]…we shall form to the American union a barrier against the dangerous extension of the British Province of Canada and add to the Empire of Liberty an extensive and fertile Country thereby converting dangerous Enemies into valuable friends.”

    Thomas Jefferson (1809) “we should then have only to include the North [Canada] in our confederacy…and we should have such an empire for liberty as she has never surveyed since the creation: & I am persuaded no constitution was ever before so well calculated as ours for extensive empire & self government.”

    Thomas Jefferson (1823) wrote to President James Monroe from his home at Monticello, under date of October 24, 1823: “I have ever looked upon Cuba as the most interesting addition which could ever be made to our system of States

    Read More
    • Replies: @Mitleser
    The Monroe Doctrine sounds more and more like a measure to isolate America's future victims in the western hemisphere from European support.

    Kind of like the Taiwan policy of the PRC.
    , @Mr. XYZ
    What about later U.S. politicians? After all, your quotes only extend to 1823.
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  111. @AP
    Western Europe is still much easier to get to and its politicians much more amenable to migration. While your worst case isn't absolutely impossible for the USA, it's something that is well outside a realistic likelihood, in my opinion. Among likely possibilities, best case is European-Americans down to 48% plurality, worst case 1/3 European-Americans plus Asians , 1/3 Anglicized half-Euros/half Mestizos , 1/3 unassimilated Latinos and Africans. A more European and far wealthier version of Brazil, built on an an Anglo rather than Portuguese platform and with Mestizos rather than Mulattos, still a military, nuclear, space, technological superpower and magnet for cognitive elites. More crowded and less free, requiring more gated communities and such things. Still not close to being a third world country.

    FWIW I think that’s the likeliest version.

    Read More
    • Replies: @Mr. XYZ
    What's your and AP's vision for Western Europe?
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  112. @Spisarevski
    As someone who occasionally plays Disciples 2 and HOMM 5 to this day, I humbly disagree.

    Here's something good from the dvach /v/:

    http://arhivach.cf/storage/d/ed/ded332165bfb2d4ecd778ca2fcf0850e.jpg

    Most of these games are Russian.

    How could I have forgotten about Cossacks.

    Another excellent Ukrainian-made game. Better than Age of Empires IMO. (I’m talking about the old ones, which I played in the early 2000s).

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  113. @Neal
    America will lose its position only when the smart and creative 1% (of the world) no longer live in the US. The question is where will it be attractive for the 1% to live?
    Europe?
    Japan?
    China?
    Russia?
    India?
    Only in the US do I see smart Germans, Chineses, Russians, Poles, Indians, Koreans, Vietnameses, etc... working side by side. Is there somewhere else where they can relocate to?
    Who's the potential new leader to replace the US?

    Your prediction about the US is more about wishful thinking than actual factual analysis.

    Only in the US do I see smart Germans, Chineses, Russians, Poles, Indians, Koreans, Vietnameses, etc… working side by side. Is there somewhere else where they can relocate to?
    Who’s the potential new leader to replace the US?

    Who says that we need a “leader”? For the record, USA is not the only place in the world that conducts science. And conditions in USA will grow shittier over time, so a greater share of such smart people will simply stay home.

    My predictions about USA are perfectly plausible, but you may be suffering from a certain inertia of your mind like a lot of people here.

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  114. @for-the-record
    This is a different set of sanctions, independent of the Skripal-related ones reported above:

    Russian newspaper leaks draft text of U.S. Senate's Defending American Security from Kremlin Aggression Act

    The newspaper Kommersant has published a full draft of the proposed “Defending American Security from Kremlin Aggression Act,” which demands a U.S. investigation into Vladimir Putin’s personal wealth and whether Russia sponsors terrorism, and would impose a ban on U.S. citizens buying Russian sovereign debt, though the U.S. Treasury publicly opposed this idea in February, warning that it would disrupt the market broadly. Republican Senator Lindsey Graham, one of the initiative’s sponsors, says one of the draft legislation’s goals is to impose “crushing sanctions.”

    [Sanctions to include:]

    Banning the banks. The draft bill proposes banning Russia’s biggest state banks — Sberbank, VTV Bank, Gazprombank, Rosselkhozbank, Promsvyazbank, or Vnesheconombank — from operating inside the United States, which would effectively prevent these institutions from conducting dollar settlements.

    Oil and gas.
    In the energy sector, the legislation would impose sanctions on investment in any projects by the Russian government or government-affiliated companies outside Russia worth more than $250 million. Businesses would also incur penalties for any participation (funding or supplying equipment or technology) in new oil projects inside Russia valued above $1 million.

    https://meduza.io/en/news/2018/08/08/russian-newspaper-leaks-draft-text-of-u-s-senate-s-defending-american-security-from-kremlin-aggression-act
     

    So the reason for Russia’s sell-off of Treasury bonds becomes clear.

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  115. Mitleser says:
    @utu
    I just did a little bit of googling. Mostly wiki. I think books by Francis Jennings should be consulted.

    Benjamin Franklin's writing that "the Prince that acquires new Territory ... removes the Natives to give his own People Room ... may be properly called [Father] of [his] Nation"

    George Washington's description of the early United States as an "infant empire"

    Thomas Jefferson in the 1790s, awaited the fall of the Spanish Empire "until our population can be sufficiently advanced to gain it from them piece by piece"

    Thomas Jefferson's statement that the United States "must be viewed as the nest from which all America, North & South is to be peopled"

    Thomas Jefferson (1790): "We shall divert through our own Country a branch of commerce which the European States have thought worthy of the most important struggles and sacrifices, and in the event of peace [ending the American Revolution]...we shall form to the American union a barrier against the dangerous extension of the British Province of Canada and add to the Empire of Liberty an extensive and fertile Country thereby converting dangerous Enemies into valuable friends."

    Thomas Jefferson (1809) "we should then have only to include the North [Canada] in our confederacy...and we should have such an empire for liberty as she has never surveyed since the creation: & I am persuaded no constitution was ever before so well calculated as ours for extensive empire & self government."

    Thomas Jefferson (1823) wrote to President James Monroe from his home at Monticello, under date of October 24, 1823: "I have ever looked upon Cuba as the most interesting addition which could ever be made to our system of States

    The Monroe Doctrine sounds more and more like a measure to isolate America’s future victims in the western hemisphere from European support.

    Kind of like the Taiwan policy of the PRC.

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    • Replies: @utu
    Monroe Doctrine was directed at England and France. They did not worry about Spain anymore. The US wanted to be the sole gravedigger of Spanish Empire in America (and Asia as it turned out).
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  116. Ilya says:
    @Duke of Qin
    This is the kind of Talmudic "have you stopped beating your wife" rhetorical attack posing as a question that I really despise.

    That was an honest question.

    Another: Is the Chinese government more concerned with internal stability or external threats?

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  117. Mr. XYZ says:

    Anatoly, do you think that Russia should ask China to help it commercialize IQ-enhancing technology inside of Russia?

    I’m thinking of having Russia give China a discount on natural resources or something along those lines in exchange for having China do this.

    Also, would China actually agree to do this or would a smarter Russia with a lot of potential for additional population growth (due to its massive amount of available living space) be considered to be a potential security risk for China?

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    • Replies: @Anatoly Karlin
    Look, no offense, but these questions are kind of nonsensical.

    It's not like Russia needs Chinese $$$ or even technology for this (technologies while are only in their embryonic stages, anyway). While Russian gov't support would be great, I'd settle for it not trying to restrict it.
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  118. Mr. XYZ says:
    @AP
    Western Europe is still much easier to get to and its politicians much more amenable to migration. While your worst case isn't absolutely impossible for the USA, it's something that is well outside a realistic likelihood, in my opinion. Among likely possibilities, best case is European-Americans down to 48% plurality, worst case 1/3 European-Americans plus Asians , 1/3 Anglicized half-Euros/half Mestizos , 1/3 unassimilated Latinos and Africans. A more European and far wealthier version of Brazil, built on an an Anglo rather than Portuguese platform and with Mestizos rather than Mulattos, still a military, nuclear, space, technological superpower and magnet for cognitive elites. More crowded and less free, requiring more gated communities and such things. Still not close to being a third world country.

    You know, I wonder if a larger percentage of the African population in the U.S. is going to be made up of higher-IQ African immigrants and thus be more capable of assimilation. After all, the U.S. already appears to filter immigrants from places such as India based on their IQs (which is why U.S. Indians appear to be super-smart on average); thus, why not also do this for Sub-Saharan Africa?

    If there will be 4 billion Black Africans, this would mean something like 500 million Black Africans with an IQ in the triple digits. True, there will be some regression towards the mean, but a ~95 IQ Black African population is still superior to an 85 IQ Black African population.

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  119. Mr. XYZ says:
    @AP

    After Trump there’s the possibility of mass immigration from Central America, Venezuela, the Caribbean, or even Africa. And really, the average manufacturing wage in Mexico is $2.80/hour. I don’t see why Mexican immigration won’t pick back up as US wages and employment continue to climb.
     
    Worst case scenario - America becomes half America, half Latin America. There will be 180 million people of European origins, 180 million or so Latinos, 40 million blacks. This doesn't add up to a third world country, given most of Latin America itself is middle income and the Latinos here already are no poorer than, say, Portuguese.

    More likely scenario - if our lower class whites mix with the Latinos, you'll still have about 120 million European people, and a similar number of English-speaking castizos, and maybe 100 million mestizos. Black numbers are the same, and will remain an underclass, probably pushed even further under by the newcomers. Also doesn't add up to a third world country. Overall would no longer be richer capita than the UK, France or Germany (assuming these somehow stay the same as they are now) but still be richer than southern Europe.

    The Somalis already have a foothold here for instance. If we let them, what’s to stop half of Somalia from moving here?
     
    Somalia has 14 million people so even half of Somalia came to the USA it would not be game-changing.

    But Europe is closer to Africa and there are more Somalis in Europe than there are in the USA. There are about 340,000 Somalis in the EU + UK, vs. 135,000 in the USA.

    The Black population is still increasing in the United States. Due to Africa’s population explosion, there is a lot of potential for a significant increase in the U.S. Black population even if one selects for IQ; after all, out of 4 billion Sub-Saharan Africans (these are the projections for 2100), there should be about 500 million people with IQs in the triple digits.

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  120. Mr. XYZ says:
    @AP

    It is too late, because America itself will be a third-world dump towards the middle of this century
     
    You are quite the wishful thinker!

    Median family income for American Hispanics is about $47,000 per year. Poor compared to white American family income (median about $62,000 per year) but higher than in many European countries.

    Mexico itself is a second-world country (its per capita GDP PPP is about the same as that of Belarus, although this income is much less evenly distributed).

    America will not be another Mexico any time soon - a hybrid of America (first world country, one of the wealthiest in the world) with Mexico (middle-income country) will not equal a third world country.

    Additonally, Mexican flow into the USA has decreased a lot, and Mexican fertiliy within the USA is declining. USA is projected to be about 47% white, 29% Hispanic, 3% black, and 9% Asian by 2050. Some percentage of those 29% Hispanics are themselves also white (many Cubans, some South Americans and Mexicans).

    I think that you mean 13% Black. 3% Black would require massive Black emigration from the U.S.

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  121. There are two ways of seeing the migration debate. On the surface, countries like Australia or Canada and to an extent the US (most of its Asian & African migration tend to be elites, whereas only Latinos are not) are importing an elite. This is essentially IQ nationalism. Europe is not getting elites from Africa or MENA.

    So a race-blind IQ nationalist would conclude that Europe is doing badly. But an ethnic nationalist would draw the opposite conclusion. If the goal is to create a homeland for white peoples, would you rather fight a large amount of highly intelligent people who, even if they might be drawn from a wide range of backgrounds, could be united in an anti-white front (as the left in the West has discovered) or would you fight a much more dull group of people who largely do not have access/influence over your institutions? Then the fight becomes primarily one within your in-group, which is preferable in the long run since if you can’t win your in-group then nothing else won’t matter anyway.

    On top of that, non-European migration into the EU is running at around 500,000-750,000 on an annual basis right now, after the surge of 2015-6, and this is into a bloc of 500 million people. This is around half the (legal) level into the US, which has 335 million people. So the non-white migration into Europe, despite the geographical proximity to Africa/MENA is still lower not just per capita but even in absolute terms. And this is with, as AP points out, an elite more amendable to migration.

    This is in the process of changing. My own country (Sweden) will elect a new parliament in the next month. I don’t have much nice things to say about SD since they’ve cucked badly compared to their positions even four years ago, but it isn’t really about them. Even the mainstream center-right parties are adopting a harder line. There is a slow but steady change in the population. AfD is now increasingly getting closer to 20% and CSU/CDU are forced to become harsher as well. This will continue. We all know about Italy’s evolution.

    Not only does Europe has much lower non-European migration per capita, but it also has a much higher base of white people on top of the fact that the people we get are on average much less capable in the event of a serious conflict. The US has a lot of things going for it, but as it comes to being a homeland for white people, I’d rank its chances next to the bottom of the list.

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    • Replies: @Mr. XYZ
    What use is there in importing low-IQ immigrants as opposed to not importing anyone, though?
    , @German_reader

    and CSU/CDU are forced to become harsher as well.
     
    There's no sign of that happening so far, in fact many senior figures in the CDU actually seem to be doubling down on the open borders programme. It seems to me they reckon the right will be stuck at 15-20% anyway, and they can permanently govern against that.
    If Italy indicates anything, it's that the old parties need to be crushed and replaced, there's no point to hoping that they'll come to their senses and reform.
    , @Rosie

    So a race-blind IQ nationalist would conclude that Europe is doing badly. But an ethnic nationalist would draw the opposite conclusion. If the goal is to create a homeland for white peoples, would you rather fight a large amount of highly intelligent people who, even if they might be drawn from a wide range of backgrounds, could be united in an anti-white front (as the left in the West has discovered) or would you fight a much more dull group of people who largely do not have access/influence over your institutions? Then the fight becomes primarily one within your in-group, which is preferable in the long run since if you can’t win your in-group then nothing else won’t matter anyway.
     
    I very much agree. The trouble with high IQ immigrants is that they assimilate, and that is the worst case scenario. Richard Spencer has said the same.
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  122. Mr. XYZ says:
    @Felix Keverich
    It is too late, because America itself will be a third-world dump towards the middle of this century, they will have far bigger problems to worry about than the China cointainment...

    There are also reasons for some healthy scepticism regarding the Chinese. It is a non-white society after all. In history only European people managed to create global empires. I think future China will be more like South Korea, than the 20th century USA. In other words, China will be big and prosperous Asian country, but not the world's hegemon. When Japan's economy was booming in 1980s, there was real fear among Americans (including Trump) that Japs will take over, and look how that turned out.

    China has ten times more people than Japan, though. Thus, China probably has the potential to pack a punch about ten times the size of Japan’s punches.

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  123. Mr. XYZ says:
    @Anatoly Karlin
    FWIW I think that's the likeliest version.

    What’s your and AP’s vision for Western Europe?

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    • Replies: @Anatoly Karlin
    Assuming no disruptive singularities/biosingularities:

    * Most far gone W. Europe countries become like Lebanon, others converge to where France is now. But no Eurabia anywhere, ever, because native breeders will make their inevitable resurgence. (Fertility preferences are heritable, and breeding genes are ultracompetitive. France has been selecting against low fertility preferences for almost two centuries now).
    , @AP
    Three scenarios for Western Europe (does not include Poland, Hungary, Czech Republic, Slovakia, Baltics):

    1. Most likely, I think - demographics will eventually stabilize at a level where 30% to 40% of the general population and majority of urban population will be Islamic and African. This will to a large extent paralyze society, because these people are not as docile or assimilatory as are Latinos in America. The majority will have to watch itself, terror attacks by extremists will be an occasional part of life, much more so than now (obviously most Muslims are not terrorists, but inevitably with such a population there will be attacks). Euro foreign and domestic policy will be geared towards keeping the Muslims from being riled up. Some secularization among wealthier/more educated Muslims too.

    2. Euro extreme backlash/ethnic cleansing, perhaps prompted by a series of very bad attacks, reversal of demographic changes. Very unlikely.

    3. Africa and Middle East become uninhabitable (due to climate change?), massive unstoppable flood of hundreds of millions, Euros don't have the heart to nuke the desperate masses, total demographic change. Very unlikely, but more likely than USA becoming another South Africa.
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  124. Mr. XYZ says:
    @utu
    I just did a little bit of googling. Mostly wiki. I think books by Francis Jennings should be consulted.

    Benjamin Franklin's writing that "the Prince that acquires new Territory ... removes the Natives to give his own People Room ... may be properly called [Father] of [his] Nation"

    George Washington's description of the early United States as an "infant empire"

    Thomas Jefferson in the 1790s, awaited the fall of the Spanish Empire "until our population can be sufficiently advanced to gain it from them piece by piece"

    Thomas Jefferson's statement that the United States "must be viewed as the nest from which all America, North & South is to be peopled"

    Thomas Jefferson (1790): "We shall divert through our own Country a branch of commerce which the European States have thought worthy of the most important struggles and sacrifices, and in the event of peace [ending the American Revolution]...we shall form to the American union a barrier against the dangerous extension of the British Province of Canada and add to the Empire of Liberty an extensive and fertile Country thereby converting dangerous Enemies into valuable friends."

    Thomas Jefferson (1809) "we should then have only to include the North [Canada] in our confederacy...and we should have such an empire for liberty as she has never surveyed since the creation: & I am persuaded no constitution was ever before so well calculated as ours for extensive empire & self government."

    Thomas Jefferson (1823) wrote to President James Monroe from his home at Monticello, under date of October 24, 1823: "I have ever looked upon Cuba as the most interesting addition which could ever be made to our system of States

    What about later U.S. politicians? After all, your quotes only extend to 1823.

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    • Replies: @Mitleser

    What about later U.S. politicians?
     
    Later ones did not talk about it.
    They realized it.
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  125. Mr. XYZ says:
    @Thulean Friend
    There are two ways of seeing the migration debate. On the surface, countries like Australia or Canada and to an extent the US (most of its Asian & African migration tend to be elites, whereas only Latinos are not) are importing an elite. This is essentially IQ nationalism. Europe is not getting elites from Africa or MENA.

    So a race-blind IQ nationalist would conclude that Europe is doing badly. But an ethnic nationalist would draw the opposite conclusion. If the goal is to create a homeland for white peoples, would you rather fight a large amount of highly intelligent people who, even if they might be drawn from a wide range of backgrounds, could be united in an anti-white front (as the left in the West has discovered) or would you fight a much more dull group of people who largely do not have access/influence over your institutions? Then the fight becomes primarily one within your in-group, which is preferable in the long run since if you can't win your in-group then nothing else won't matter anyway.


    On top of that, non-European migration into the EU is running at around 500,000-750,000 on an annual basis right now, after the surge of 2015-6, and this is into a bloc of 500 million people. This is around half the (legal) level into the US, which has 335 million people. So the non-white migration into Europe, despite the geographical proximity to Africa/MENA is still lower not just per capita but even in absolute terms. And this is with, as AP points out, an elite more amendable to migration.

    This is in the process of changing. My own country (Sweden) will elect a new parliament in the next month. I don't have much nice things to say about SD since they've cucked badly compared to their positions even four years ago, but it isn't really about them. Even the mainstream center-right parties are adopting a harder line. There is a slow but steady change in the population. AfD is now increasingly getting closer to 20% and CSU/CDU are forced to become harsher as well. This will continue. We all know about Italy's evolution.

    Not only does Europe has much lower non-European migration per capita, but it also has a much higher base of white people on top of the fact that the people we get are on average much less capable in the event of a serious conflict. The US has a lot of things going for it, but as it comes to being a homeland for white people, I'd rank its chances next to the bottom of the list.

    What use is there in importing low-IQ immigrants as opposed to not importing anyone, though?

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  126. Bliss says:
    @Ilya
    Russia can't afford to throw China under the bus, but China can afford to throw Russia under the bus.

    China screwed Russia in '98 when it stole the Sukhoi design after only partially paying for the full value of the contract. That's how the Chinese roll -- heads I win, tails you lose. The rapacious informalism of China is such that abiding by an agreement is considered foolish. I'm sure Russia is cautious.

    Japan's growth of corporate debt in the 1960s and 1970s was twice that in the US, and its personal debt took off in the 1980s. Japan is a high-trust, high-IQ society, and its debt overhang has resulted in 30 years (and counting) of economic stagnation. China's IQ is lower than Japan's and China is an extremely inefficient and low-trust society -- how long will its stagnation last once its debt ponzi collapses?

    Russia can’t afford to throw China under the bus, but China can afford to throw Russia under the bus.

    For economic, geopolitical and military reasons China can not afford to throw Russia under the bus in an increasingly unpredictable global environment: trade wars, sanctions, threats of war in the Persian Gulf, climate extremes etc.

    At the very least it needs the stability and security of Russian pipelines pouring oil and gas into China, and the planned Silk Road pouring Chinese products across Eurasia.

    Putin’s dream of an European/Eurasian zone from Lisbon to Vladivostok has been replaced by Xi’s Chinese/Eurasian vision.

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  127. Dmitry says:

    Only around 12% of the American population is African-American. Sometimes you wonder why America is so obsessed with such a small minority. All blacks in America are only the same as the population of California.

    African Americans on average are over 25% European genetically.

    Larger population in Americans is Latinos, who are more numerous than blacks. Latinos in America are themselves of majority European genetics and ancestry (on average Latinos in America are genetically over 65% European) – a problem for assimilation I guess, they are descended from Europeans of Spain and Portugal, which is already a culture clash for anglosaxons.

    https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/articles/PMC4289685/

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    • Replies: @Dmitry
    An African autonomous state in America (even with all African Americans living there - which is unrealistic), would be 40 million people. A single state like Kansas, would be more than large enough for such a projec.

    It's surprising how few the total black population is in America, compared to how much attention there is on this topic. Maybe because they're currently concentrated in the famous cities?
    , @anonymous coward

    Only around 12% of the American population is African-American. Sometimes you wonder why America is so obsessed with such a small minority.
     
    That's because the Blacks are the only ethnicity that is native the the USA. Strange but true.

    (Native American Indians belong to their tribe, not the USA, and whites are a motley crew of ethnics from Europe.)
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  128. Sean says:

    Yes, Kissinger did too good a job. Without timely Russian military pressure on China diverting resources from the lift off stage it is still in, China overtaking America economically and technologically is inevitable.

    The business class will just wait till Trump is gone and get back to providing consumers with lower prices. The West probably overestimates Putin’s interest in what the West thinks, Russia is loving its freedom of action, while it lasts.

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  129. @Mr. XYZ
    Anatoly, do you think that Russia should ask China to help it commercialize IQ-enhancing technology inside of Russia?

    I'm thinking of having Russia give China a discount on natural resources or something along those lines in exchange for having China do this.

    Also, would China actually agree to do this or would a smarter Russia with a lot of potential for additional population growth (due to its massive amount of available living space) be considered to be a potential security risk for China?

    Look, no offense, but these questions are kind of nonsensical.

    It’s not like Russia needs Chinese $$$ or even technology for this (technologies while are only in their embryonic stages, anyway). While Russian gov’t support would be great, I’d settle for it not trying to restrict it.

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  130. @Mr. XYZ
    What's your and AP's vision for Western Europe?

    Assuming no disruptive singularities/biosingularities:

    * Most far gone W. Europe countries become like Lebanon, others converge to where France is now. But no Eurabia anywhere, ever, because native breeders will make their inevitable resurgence. (Fertility preferences are heritable, and breeding genes are ultracompetitive. France has been selecting against low fertility preferences for almost two centuries now).

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    • Replies: @Sean
    Éric Zemmour observed that the French proletariat cannot compete with the “ostentatious virility of their black and Arab competitors seducing numerous young white women.”
    , @AquariusAnon
    So this means that the average Western European country will become 80% white, with the capitals being 50% white. As the pendulum inevitably swings to the right, but removing them from the premises seems out of the picture unless desperate poverty kicks in, do you think the dynamics will be like today's France/UK with the nonwhites running around wild, or a softer Apartheid system will take place?

    Lebanon right now is 55% Muslim. This doesn't seem likely imo for most of Europe. I'd say that France, UK, and Netherlands will end up stabilizing around 60-65% white, Germany maybe 75%, and most of the rest of Western Europe end up 80-85% white like today's France and Netherlands.

    Economically, due to these shitty demographics for the economic engines of Europe, I predict Eastern and Western Europe to meet in the middle in terms of GDP per capita, which means everyone from Poland to Germany having more or less current Italy/Spain economic standards.
    , @Mr. XYZ
    Would Germans with breeder genes be willing to have a lot of children in the western, more overcrowded part of Germany, though?

    I mean, France certainly has a lot of living space, but the Benelux countries and western Germany don't.
    , @Felix Keverich

    But no Eurabia anywhere, ever, because native breeders will make their inevitable resurgence. (Fertility preferences are heritable, and breeding genes are ultracompetitive. France has been selecting against low fertility preferences for almost two centuries now).
     
    Is there any actual evidence to support this theory? You genes may influence your ideal, desirable number of children, but your still have control over your reproductive decisions. Those are heavily influenced by the prevailing culture.

    Anyway, the French may not have enough time for this selection process to complete. Their native TFR is allegedly 1.4, which is on the low end of modern societies.

    https://www.washingtontimes.com/news/2017/sep/26/muslim-majority-in-france-projected-in-40-years/

    Here is another demographic black pill for you:

    https://twitter.com/Cicerone973/status/1026956574156304384
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  131. Sean says:
    @Anatoly Karlin
    Assuming no disruptive singularities/biosingularities:

    * Most far gone W. Europe countries become like Lebanon, others converge to where France is now. But no Eurabia anywhere, ever, because native breeders will make their inevitable resurgence. (Fertility preferences are heritable, and breeding genes are ultracompetitive. France has been selecting against low fertility preferences for almost two centuries now).

    Éric Zemmour observed that the French proletariat cannot compete with the “ostentatious virility of their black and Arab competitors seducing numerous young white women.”

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  132. AP says:
    @Mr. XYZ
    What's your and AP's vision for Western Europe?

    Three scenarios for Western Europe (does not include Poland, Hungary, Czech Republic, Slovakia, Baltics):

    1. Most likely, I think – demographics will eventually stabilize at a level where 30% to 40% of the general population and majority of urban population will be Islamic and African. This will to a large extent paralyze society, because these people are not as docile or assimilatory as are Latinos in America. The majority will have to watch itself, terror attacks by extremists will be an occasional part of life, much more so than now (obviously most Muslims are not terrorists, but inevitably with such a population there will be attacks). Euro foreign and domestic policy will be geared towards keeping the Muslims from being riled up. Some secularization among wealthier/more educated Muslims too.

    2. Euro extreme backlash/ethnic cleansing, perhaps prompted by a series of very bad attacks, reversal of demographic changes. Very unlikely.

    3. Africa and Middle East become uninhabitable (due to climate change?), massive unstoppable flood of hundreds of millions, Euros don’t have the heart to nuke the desperate masses, total demographic change. Very unlikely, but more likely than USA becoming another South Africa.

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    • Replies: @Mr. XYZ
    Agreed that scenario #1 is the likeliest. That said, though, in such a scenario, couldn't Muslim, Africans, and White European liberals ally to bring in even more Muslims and Africans to Western Europe so that they would form a majority of the total population there?

    Also, is Western Europe going to remain as progressive on social issues such as women's rights and same-sex marriage with so many Muslims and Africans there?
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  133. Dmitry says:
    @Dmitry
    Only around 12% of the American population is African-American. Sometimes you wonder why America is so obsessed with such a small minority. All blacks in America are only the same as the population of California.

    African Americans on average are over 25% European genetically.

    Larger population in Americans is Latinos, who are more numerous than blacks. Latinos in America are themselves of majority European genetics and ancestry (on average Latinos in America are genetically over 65% European) - a problem for assimilation I guess, they are descended from Europeans of Spain and Portugal, which is already a culture clash for anglosaxons.

    https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/articles/PMC4289685/

    An African autonomous state in America (even with all African Americans living there – which is unrealistic), would be 40 million people. A single state like Kansas, would be more than large enough for such a projec.

    It’s surprising how few the total black population is in America, compared to how much attention there is on this topic. Maybe because they’re currently concentrated in the famous cities?

    Read More
    • Replies: @AP
    History. Until fairly recently they were the only large minority, unlike other groups they have not really assimilated over time, they have been a part of the USA since practically the beginning, and have accordingly had a deep influence on American culture.
    , @Mr. XYZ
    Kansas currently has less than three million people. Does it actually have enough resources to sustain 40 million people?
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  134. utu says:
    @Mitleser
    The Monroe Doctrine sounds more and more like a measure to isolate America's future victims in the western hemisphere from European support.

    Kind of like the Taiwan policy of the PRC.

    Monroe Doctrine was directed at England and France. They did not worry about Spain anymore. The US wanted to be the sole gravedigger of Spanish Empire in America (and Asia as it turned out).

    Read More
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  135. AP says:
    @Dmitry
    An African autonomous state in America (even with all African Americans living there - which is unrealistic), would be 40 million people. A single state like Kansas, would be more than large enough for such a projec.

    It's surprising how few the total black population is in America, compared to how much attention there is on this topic. Maybe because they're currently concentrated in the famous cities?

    History. Until fairly recently they were the only large minority, unlike other groups they have not really assimilated over time, they have been a part of the USA since practically the beginning, and have accordingly had a deep influence on American culture.

    Read More
    • Replies: @Dmitry
    Thanks - I can see that. They're definitely overrepresented as actors and television hosts in media, for only 12% of the population. And in terms of attention given to African-American topics in political discourse, you would think they were more like 1/4 of the population.
    , @Mr. XYZ
    Yeah, African-Americans often have more of a claim on the American identity than American Whites do due to having lived here longer. Most (maybe 80%) of African-Americans are descended from African slaves who were imported to the U.S. before the mid-19th century whereas a significant part of American Whites appears to be descended from post-1840 European immigrants to the U.S. (with Southern Whites appearing to be an exception to this rule, since the Southern U.S. had few immigrants before the 1960s).

    Also, as a side note, African-Americans did produce some positive cultural achievements for the U.S.--there's sports (basketball, football, track-and-field, et cetera), jazz music, rap music, soul food, Kwanzaa, Ebonics, et cetera.

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  136. utu says:
    @Daniel Chieh
    No doubt a continental power, but if I recall correctly, England went for awhile believing that the US would collapse on its own, impressed US sailors into their fleets, and feared American intervention in Canada. The latter two would result in the War of 1812, and indeed led to American invasions of Canada.

    The latter two would result in the War of 1812, and indeed led to American invasions of Canada.

    The wars usually get their names after they end. American invasions of Canada was first before it got buried in American historiography as War of 1812. British occupation of Washington DC was reactive.

    http://theweek.com/articles/473482/americas-invasion-canada-brief-history
    It was the closest British colony, but Madison also had political reasons for targeting America’s northern neighbor. His Democratic-Republican Party drew much of its support from the rural South and what was then the American West — the territory stretching up the Mississippi basin to the Great Lakes. Frontier inhabitants were eager to strike at the British in Canada because they suspected them of arming Native American tribes that were standing in the way of America’s westward expansion. Many Americans also believed that the invasion would be a cakewalk, and that ordinary Canadians were keen to shake off their British overlords. The “acquisition of Canada,” predicted former President Thomas Jefferson, “will be a mere matter of marching.”

    Anyway it does not seem that British ever wanted to destroy the regime of “slave drivers yelping for liberty.”

    Read More
    • Replies: @Daniel Chieh

    Frontier inhabitants were eager to strike at the British in Canada because they suspected them of arming Native American tribes that were standing in the way of America’s westward expansion. Many Americans also believed that the invasion would be a cakewalk, and that ordinary Canadians were keen to shake off their British overlords. The “acquisition of Canada,” predicted former President Thomas Jefferson, “will be a mere matter of marching.”
     
    And those frontier inhabitants were not wrong, though exaggerated. The British were indeed arming Native American tribes.


    https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Tecumseh

    Tecumseh's death was a decisive blow to the American Indians. It had larger implications during negotiations for the Treaty of Ghent (1814). During the treaty process, the British called for the U.S. government to return lands in Ohio, Indiana, and Michigan to the Indians. For decades the British strategy had been to create a buffer state to block American expansion, but the Americans refused to consider the British proposal and it was dropped
     
    And as you noted, the US was quite confident, almost mystically, that Canada would shortly be added to the country. Either to "free them from oppression" or to due to much more mercenary concerns of urbanized cities to add to the US, the devotees of Manifest Destiny felt that it was an inevitability that Canada would be added to the US, giving up mostly only after the War of 1812. Its surprising if the British were not hostile, given that they were basically being actively threatened with invasion on their remaining NA holdings.

    Thanks for the reference to Francis Jennings! I will check out some of his books this weekend.
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  137. @Thulean Friend
    There are two ways of seeing the migration debate. On the surface, countries like Australia or Canada and to an extent the US (most of its Asian & African migration tend to be elites, whereas only Latinos are not) are importing an elite. This is essentially IQ nationalism. Europe is not getting elites from Africa or MENA.

    So a race-blind IQ nationalist would conclude that Europe is doing badly. But an ethnic nationalist would draw the opposite conclusion. If the goal is to create a homeland for white peoples, would you rather fight a large amount of highly intelligent people who, even if they might be drawn from a wide range of backgrounds, could be united in an anti-white front (as the left in the West has discovered) or would you fight a much more dull group of people who largely do not have access/influence over your institutions? Then the fight becomes primarily one within your in-group, which is preferable in the long run since if you can't win your in-group then nothing else won't matter anyway.


    On top of that, non-European migration into the EU is running at around 500,000-750,000 on an annual basis right now, after the surge of 2015-6, and this is into a bloc of 500 million people. This is around half the (legal) level into the US, which has 335 million people. So the non-white migration into Europe, despite the geographical proximity to Africa/MENA is still lower not just per capita but even in absolute terms. And this is with, as AP points out, an elite more amendable to migration.

    This is in the process of changing. My own country (Sweden) will elect a new parliament in the next month. I don't have much nice things to say about SD since they've cucked badly compared to their positions even four years ago, but it isn't really about them. Even the mainstream center-right parties are adopting a harder line. There is a slow but steady change in the population. AfD is now increasingly getting closer to 20% and CSU/CDU are forced to become harsher as well. This will continue. We all know about Italy's evolution.

    Not only does Europe has much lower non-European migration per capita, but it also has a much higher base of white people on top of the fact that the people we get are on average much less capable in the event of a serious conflict. The US has a lot of things going for it, but as it comes to being a homeland for white people, I'd rank its chances next to the bottom of the list.

    and CSU/CDU are forced to become harsher as well.

    There’s no sign of that happening so far, in fact many senior figures in the CDU actually seem to be doubling down on the open borders programme. It seems to me they reckon the right will be stuck at 15-20% anyway, and they can permanently govern against that.
    If Italy indicates anything, it’s that the old parties need to be crushed and replaced, there’s no point to hoping that they’ll come to their senses and reform.

    Read More
    • Replies: @Mitleser
    CDU relies on German baby boomer voters who will keep voting for them.
    Not much improvement until these citizens die out.

    https://twitter.com/EuropeElects/status/1022523896547954690
    https://farm5.staticflickr.com/4606/26277498808_95d10f8519_o.jpg
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  138. @AP
    Western Europe is still much easier to get to and its politicians much more amenable to migration. While your worst case isn't absolutely impossible for the USA, it's something that is well outside a realistic likelihood, in my opinion. Among likely possibilities, best case is European-Americans down to 48% plurality, worst case 1/3 European-Americans plus Asians , 1/3 Anglicized half-Euros/half Mestizos , 1/3 unassimilated Latinos and Africans. A more European and far wealthier version of Brazil, built on an an Anglo rather than Portuguese platform and with Mestizos rather than Mulattos, still a military, nuclear, space, technological superpower and magnet for cognitive elites. More crowded and less free, requiring more gated communities and such things. Still not close to being a third world country.

    I think you are underestimating the dysfunction that the political culture of Latin Americans bring to the US.

    Even with the current numbers, the last election was a very Latin affair, the Caudillo vs Evita.

    I think political culture will gradually shift to a more Latin American format.

    I think political gridlock will increase. And unlike many South American countries where a European-Middle Eastern elite rule, the US race relations mandate more power-sharing. And since racial divisions will most likely become even stronger, more disagreements and disunity within the government will arise.

    Populist dissenters who support short-termist policies will also become more common.

    This doesn’t mean that America won’t be a liveable place, but it makes me believe that America’s great power status and relative world domination will disappear and America will be demoted to a second-rate power.

    Read More
    • Replies: @German_reader

    but it makes me believe that America’s great power status and relative world domination will disappear
     
    That could be a good thing, US influence in Europe needs to end anyway.
    , @Dmitry
    Latin America itself has evolved politically though - it's not only Castro and Chavez.

    See the story of Pinochet in Chile, who has in quite a heavy way turned it into a successful country.

    Nowadays in Chile, government is supporting business, even trying to develop startup ecosystem:
    https://www.theguardian.com/small-business-network/2016/dec/22/chile-accelerator-startup-grants

    -


    Current Argentina president, Mauricio Macri - is quite capitalist.

    The new president in Colombia, Ivan Duque, is also capitalist and a graduate of Harvard Business School.

    -
    Also actually meeting Latin American people is interesting - in my experience, they definitely do not seem to be the retard losers they are portrayed by American media.

    By the way, I was trying to learn Spanish last year by watching videos - I was surprised by how many intellectual television shows they have (uploaded on YouTube) from Latin America. They produce more of these kind of television shows it seems than from North America. There's endless hours of television programs where they are just discussing literature, or even documentaries about Nietzsche or Dostoevsky.

    , @AP

    Even with the current numbers, the last election was a very Latin affair, the Caudillo vs Evita.
     
    Heh - it certainly looks that way. The similarity may merely be a coincidence; there have been populist movements in the USA before there were many Latinos in the USA (Huey Long), such movements with Great Leaders have existed in European countries with no Latinos, and Trump's voters are white and don't seem to be Latinized in any other way.

    And unlike many South American countries where a European-Middle Eastern elite rule, the US race relations mandate more power-sharing.
     
    Or, the elite will continue as before but have pseudo-minorities for presentation. Like Obama, half-white and raised largely by his white grandparents, whose father was was from a different part of Africa than African-Americans came from, being an "African-American." Miami Cubans or someone like Jeb Bush's half-Mexican son might be Latinos.

    And since racial divisions will most likely become even stronger, more disagreements and disunity within the government will arise.
     
    Possible. OTOH Latinos might have been the solution to the black-white racial problems. If 1/3 of the US population is white plus Asian, and another 1/3 is Anglicized half-Mexican/half white, the latter would probably just be white people who are a little darker and who have family salsa or burrito recipes.* Then you'd have the resentful descendants of slaves still at the bottom but only 10% of less of the population as their share of the pie shrinks, and the rest being recent immigrants busy working cheaply.

    This doesn’t mean that America won’t be a liveable place, but it makes me believe that America’s great power status and relative world domination will disappear
     
    It might be eclipsed by China, but China has no history of global power projection. So who would replace America, which would still have about 200 million Europeans*, would still host much of the world's cognitive elite, and would still have what it had built up. The African and Islamic worlds won't do so in the next century. Brazil, India, or Latin America itself - very doubtful. Europe will be hobbled with its own problems. Russia has too few people, is in China's shadow, and has its own potential Islam problem. If Intermarium happens it will have too few people. So most likely, America remains the main global power by default.

    *Mexicans-Americans are about 45% European, so even an evenly mixed population would be over 70% European, thus generally European. When you googleimage half white half Mexican you get images like this:

    https://i.pinimg.com/originals/1b/c6/be/1bc6be58c51cc6cf4a384655455e3115.jpg

    http://www.latina.com/sites/default/files/460650126.jpg

    https://i.ytimg.com/vi/mk3hiZL6KWE/maxresdefault.jpg

    If they introduced themselves as Italian or Spanish most people wouldn't question it.

    (for some reason Jeb Bush's kids are the least European-looking of such people)

    Here is an interesting list:

    http://www.latina.com/entertainment/celebrity/half-latino-celebrities-stars
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  139. @Hyperborean
    I think you are underestimating the dysfunction that the political culture of Latin Americans bring to the US.

    Even with the current numbers, the last election was a very Latin affair, the Caudillo vs Evita.

    I think political culture will gradually shift to a more Latin American format.

    I think political gridlock will increase. And unlike many South American countries where a European-Middle Eastern elite rule, the US race relations mandate more power-sharing. And since racial divisions will most likely become even stronger, more disagreements and disunity within the government will arise.

    Populist dissenters who support short-termist policies will also become more common.

    This doesn't mean that America won't be a liveable place, but it makes me believe that America's great power status and relative world domination will disappear and America will be demoted to a second-rate power.

    but it makes me believe that America’s great power status and relative world domination will disappear

    That could be a good thing, US influence in Europe needs to end anyway.

    Read More
    • Replies: @Hyperborean
    I believe the ideological and cultural influences that emanate from America are the most pernicious ones, but unfortunately they are also not the ones that can be eviscerated by one great big battle.
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  140. @German_reader

    but it makes me believe that America’s great power status and relative world domination will disappear
     
    That could be a good thing, US influence in Europe needs to end anyway.

    I believe the ideological and cultural influences that emanate from America are the most pernicious ones, but unfortunately they are also not the ones that can be eviscerated by one great big battle.

    Read More
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  141. Yeah, this is right. I’ve been hoping against hope that Trump could sort this out but America is too far gone. I wouldn’t totally dismiss the demographic risks of Chinese flooding Siberia and the far east, simply due to the great numbers of Chinamen, but indeed the draw is minimal, especially when there are so many warmer places with established Hua-Qiao communities. Chinese demographic invasion is a bigger risk to America where they have burrowed their way deep into the economic trunk of the country (go to any office of a big company). Russia is better off staying with China, and waiting for Populist-Nationlists to take power in Europe and for the USA to become overwhelmed by the scope of Chinese infiltration and soft power. Heaven forbid Apple lose access to the Chinese market! Better hand them Taiwan or even Hawaii! Time is on Russia’s side, as long as the government stays reasonably competent, even if it will be a mostly Chinese century.

    Read More
    • Replies: @AquariusAnon
    This is mostly true. I don't see Chinese immigrating in large numbers to Russia, at least in the sense of lebrensraum. The only non-Asian country susceptible to the "yellow peril" is Australia and perhaps parts of Canada, more specifically Vancouver.

    Demographically I see Australia specifically stabilizing around 50% white, 35% Chinese, and 15% other. Canada will on the other hand have similar demographics, but substitute Chinese for South Asian, with higher weight to "other" since Greater Vancouver is set to have a Chinese plurality if not majority.

    Russia will be largely spared of mass Chinese immigration. However, if Russia continues to stagnate, China continues to grow in power albeit even if more slowly, and US sanctions against Russia amount to a full embargo (all 3 situations looking highly, highly likely at this point), then the Belt and Road will eventually give Russia a quasi, more subtle Golden Horde 2.0 type situation.

    Chinese won't be living in masses in Russia, but the economy will largely be Chinese oriented with strategic Chinese investments Chinese-ran and Chinese-staffed, and to protect trade, even a permanent PLA military base or 2 on Russian soil. A multi-vectored independent Russia as desired by the Russian elite will probably not happen, with Russia relegated to being a junior partner/vassal state of China. China won't be actually controlling Russia politically, but a Chinese economic stranglehold on Russia will mean less freedom in Russian geopolitical maneuvering. Relations will be similar to current US-Japan relation or where China-Pakistan relations are clearly headed.

    I predict around and no more than 1 million Chinese to live in Russia in such a situation with maybe 1/2 in European Russia, 1/3 in the Far East and the rest in Siberia, along with 10,000-50,000 PLA soldiers. On the ground, I expect not too much to happen: The SWPL-oriented places that won't survive the upcoming embargo will probably eventually re-open years later as Chinese oriented/operated establishments, whether for tourists or businessmen/workers, but a majority of SWPL places will probably survive and continue to cater towards upper middle class Russians. Chinese language signs will probably be ubiquitous not just in Sheremetyevo Airport, but in the entire city as a whole, with translations for all street signs and informational signs.

    Once Russia ends up as a quasi Chinese tributary state in such a situation, Poland will probably really take off. It will still be 99% white, and as the first stop in Europe for the new Silk Route, it will profit immensely with Warsaw being a massive trade and logistics hub, on top of even becoming a tech hub.

    , @Nznz
    Will a 98 percent Slavic Russia that retrenches to the teritory of the Kievan Rus be able to survive economically?
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  142. Dmitry says:
    @Hyperborean
    I think you are underestimating the dysfunction that the political culture of Latin Americans bring to the US.

    Even with the current numbers, the last election was a very Latin affair, the Caudillo vs Evita.

    I think political culture will gradually shift to a more Latin American format.

    I think political gridlock will increase. And unlike many South American countries where a European-Middle Eastern elite rule, the US race relations mandate more power-sharing. And since racial divisions will most likely become even stronger, more disagreements and disunity within the government will arise.

    Populist dissenters who support short-termist policies will also become more common.

    This doesn't mean that America won't be a liveable place, but it makes me believe that America's great power status and relative world domination will disappear and America will be demoted to a second-rate power.

    Latin America itself has evolved politically though – it’s not only Castro and Chavez.

    See the story of Pinochet in Chile, who has in quite a heavy way turned it into a successful country.

    Nowadays in Chile, government is supporting business, even trying to develop startup ecosystem:

    https://www.theguardian.com/small-business-network/2016/dec/22/chile-accelerator-startup-grants

    -

    Current Argentina president, Mauricio Macri – is quite capitalist.

    The new president in Colombia, Ivan Duque, is also capitalist and a graduate of Harvard Business School.

    -
    Also actually meeting Latin American people is interesting – in my experience, they definitely do not seem to be the retard losers they are portrayed by American media.

    By the way, I was trying to learn Spanish last year by watching videos – I was surprised by how many intellectual television shows they have (uploaded on YouTube) from Latin America. They produce more of these kind of television shows it seems than from North America. There’s endless hours of television programs where they are just discussing literature, or even documentaries about Nietzsche or Dostoevsky.

    Read More
    • Replies: @Hyperborean
    There is a phrase - Brazil is the land of the future, and always will be.

    Latin America may be an enjoyable place to live if one likes Southern personalities.

    But there are certain structural problems (somewhat similar to the ones in Southern Europe) that inhibit them.

    They may or may not be able to overcome them, but the way it looks like now America is converging to Latin American standards.

    This convergence is a step-down that may not be disasterous in terms of living standards, but I am sceptical of the ability of a Latinised America to retain its current geopolitical power.

    This doesn't mean that the USA won't be a threatening force for years, especially regionally, but unless other countries decay faster than the US, gradually it will become a second-rate power.

    ---

    As an aside note, the cultural power that America exerts is immense, and I notice it the most when the US indirectly exports other cultural products.

    As America has become more Latinised in recent years, I've noticed that US Latin American culture has become more popular in other countries.

    Spanish-language songs and music style, vocabulary, films etc.

    , @AP
    I have some Puerto Rican and Cuban colleagues whom I've known for years. They are all well read in Russian literature (seems to be required reading). Their culture seems rather similar to Slavic culture - people are more open, emotional, laugh louder, generous with those close to them but less fair to outsiders, etc. They treat rum like Slavs treat vodka. However, the Latino culture is more sexualized (i.e, it is not uncommon for wealthy fathers to buy an expensive prostitute for their 16 year old son's birthday, so that in the future he will know how things of that nature are done).

    When we have parties, I notice that Slavs tends to mix with Latinos, and Anglos are apart.
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  143. Dmitry says:
    @AP
    History. Until fairly recently they were the only large minority, unlike other groups they have not really assimilated over time, they have been a part of the USA since practically the beginning, and have accordingly had a deep influence on American culture.

    Thanks – I can see that. They’re definitely overrepresented as actors and television hosts in media, for only 12% of the population. And in terms of attention given to African-American topics in political discourse, you would think they were more like 1/4 of the population.

    Read More
    • Replies: @Mr. XYZ
    I certainly wouldn't be surprised if they are 1/4ths of the Democratic Party in the United States. As far as I can tell, it's primarily the Democrats who talk about African-American issues. Republicans don't appear to talk much about African-American issues unless they're shaming "welfare addicts" or whatever.
    , @LondonBob
    Blacks are hugely dysfunctional, almost all policy issues revolve around mitigating that. Sorry your comment sounds like you just don't have enough experience with blacks or societies that have to manage the issue.
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  144. @Anatoly Karlin
    Assuming no disruptive singularities/biosingularities:

    * Most far gone W. Europe countries become like Lebanon, others converge to where France is now. But no Eurabia anywhere, ever, because native breeders will make their inevitable resurgence. (Fertility preferences are heritable, and breeding genes are ultracompetitive. France has been selecting against low fertility preferences for almost two centuries now).

    So this means that the average Western European country will become 80% white, with the capitals being 50% white. As the pendulum inevitably swings to the right, but removing them from the premises seems out of the picture unless desperate poverty kicks in, do you think the dynamics will be like today’s France/UK with the nonwhites running around wild, or a softer Apartheid system will take place?

    Lebanon right now is 55% Muslim. This doesn’t seem likely imo for most of Europe. I’d say that France, UK, and Netherlands will end up stabilizing around 60-65% white, Germany maybe 75%, and most of the rest of Western Europe end up 80-85% white like today’s France and Netherlands.

    Economically, due to these shitty demographics for the economic engines of Europe, I predict Eastern and Western Europe to meet in the middle in terms of GDP per capita, which means everyone from Poland to Germany having more or less current Italy/Spain economic standards.

    Read More
    • Replies: @Mr. XYZ
    Eastern Europe could eventually overtake Western Europe in terms of GDP per capita if its average IQ will become higher than that of Western Europe.
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  145. Mr. XYZ says:
    @Dmitry
    An African autonomous state in America (even with all African Americans living there - which is unrealistic), would be 40 million people. A single state like Kansas, would be more than large enough for such a projec.

    It's surprising how few the total black population is in America, compared to how much attention there is on this topic. Maybe because they're currently concentrated in the famous cities?

    Kansas currently has less than three million people. Does it actually have enough resources to sustain 40 million people?

    Read More
    • Replies: @Anatoly Karlin
    Sure. People underestimate the productivity of modern agriculture. The US can feed well more than a billion people just by turning over the areas currently used for growing livestock feed and crops for ethanol/biodiesel to crops grown for human consumption.

    https://pbs.twimg.com/media/DkHEXwKWwAEuWhR.jpg
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  146. @Dmitry
    Latin America itself has evolved politically though - it's not only Castro and Chavez.

    See the story of Pinochet in Chile, who has in quite a heavy way turned it into a successful country.

    Nowadays in Chile, government is supporting business, even trying to develop startup ecosystem:
    https://www.theguardian.com/small-business-network/2016/dec/22/chile-accelerator-startup-grants

    -


    Current Argentina president, Mauricio Macri - is quite capitalist.

    The new president in Colombia, Ivan Duque, is also capitalist and a graduate of Harvard Business School.

    -
    Also actually meeting Latin American people is interesting - in my experience, they definitely do not seem to be the retard losers they are portrayed by American media.

    By the way, I was trying to learn Spanish last year by watching videos - I was surprised by how many intellectual television shows they have (uploaded on YouTube) from Latin America. They produce more of these kind of television shows it seems than from North America. There's endless hours of television programs where they are just discussing literature, or even documentaries about Nietzsche or Dostoevsky.

    There is a phrase – Brazil is the land of the future, and always will be.

    Latin America may be an enjoyable place to live if one likes Southern personalities.

    But there are certain structural problems (somewhat similar to the ones in Southern Europe) that inhibit them.

    They may or may not be able to overcome them, but the way it looks like now America is converging to Latin American standards.

    This convergence is a step-down that may not be disasterous in terms of living standards, but I am sceptical of the ability of a Latinised America to retain its current geopolitical power.

    This doesn’t mean that the USA won’t be a threatening force for years, especially regionally, but unless other countries decay faster than the US, gradually it will become a second-rate power.

    As an aside note, the cultural power that America exerts is immense, and I notice it the most when the US indirectly exports other cultural products.

    As America has become more Latinised in recent years, I’ve noticed that US Latin American culture has become more popular in other countries.

    Spanish-language songs and music style, vocabulary, films etc.

    Read More
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  147. Mr. XYZ says:
    @AquariusAnon
    So this means that the average Western European country will become 80% white, with the capitals being 50% white. As the pendulum inevitably swings to the right, but removing them from the premises seems out of the picture unless desperate poverty kicks in, do you think the dynamics will be like today's France/UK with the nonwhites running around wild, or a softer Apartheid system will take place?

    Lebanon right now is 55% Muslim. This doesn't seem likely imo for most of Europe. I'd say that France, UK, and Netherlands will end up stabilizing around 60-65% white, Germany maybe 75%, and most of the rest of Western Europe end up 80-85% white like today's France and Netherlands.

    Economically, due to these shitty demographics for the economic engines of Europe, I predict Eastern and Western Europe to meet in the middle in terms of GDP per capita, which means everyone from Poland to Germany having more or less current Italy/Spain economic standards.

    Eastern Europe could eventually overtake Western Europe in terms of GDP per capita if its average IQ will become higher than that of Western Europe.

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  148. AP says:
    @Dmitry
    Latin America itself has evolved politically though - it's not only Castro and Chavez.

    See the story of Pinochet in Chile, who has in quite a heavy way turned it into a successful country.

    Nowadays in Chile, government is supporting business, even trying to develop startup ecosystem:
    https://www.theguardian.com/small-business-network/2016/dec/22/chile-accelerator-startup-grants

    -


    Current Argentina president, Mauricio Macri - is quite capitalist.

    The new president in Colombia, Ivan Duque, is also capitalist and a graduate of Harvard Business School.

    -
    Also actually meeting Latin American people is interesting - in my experience, they definitely do not seem to be the retard losers they are portrayed by American media.

    By the way, I was trying to learn Spanish last year by watching videos - I was surprised by how many intellectual television shows they have (uploaded on YouTube) from Latin America. They produce more of these kind of television shows it seems than from North America. There's endless hours of television programs where they are just discussing literature, or even documentaries about Nietzsche or Dostoevsky.

    I have some Puerto Rican and Cuban colleagues whom I’ve known for years. They are all well read in Russian literature (seems to be required reading). Their culture seems rather similar to Slavic culture – people are more open, emotional, laugh louder, generous with those close to them but less fair to outsiders, etc. They treat rum like Slavs treat vodka. However, the Latino culture is more sexualized (i.e, it is not uncommon for wealthy fathers to buy an expensive prostitute for their 16 year old son’s birthday, so that in the future he will know how things of that nature are done).

    When we have parties, I notice that Slavs tends to mix with Latinos, and Anglos are apart.

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    • Replies: @Mr. XYZ
    In your opinion, are Slavs also more socially compatible with Mediterranean Europeans?

    I mean, I would think so since Latinos have a lot of Mediterranean ancestry and since Slavs are socially compatible with them.
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  149. Mr. XYZ says:
    @AP
    Three scenarios for Western Europe (does not include Poland, Hungary, Czech Republic, Slovakia, Baltics):

    1. Most likely, I think - demographics will eventually stabilize at a level where 30% to 40% of the general population and majority of urban population will be Islamic and African. This will to a large extent paralyze society, because these people are not as docile or assimilatory as are Latinos in America. The majority will have to watch itself, terror attacks by extremists will be an occasional part of life, much more so than now (obviously most Muslims are not terrorists, but inevitably with such a population there will be attacks). Euro foreign and domestic policy will be geared towards keeping the Muslims from being riled up. Some secularization among wealthier/more educated Muslims too.

    2. Euro extreme backlash/ethnic cleansing, perhaps prompted by a series of very bad attacks, reversal of demographic changes. Very unlikely.

    3. Africa and Middle East become uninhabitable (due to climate change?), massive unstoppable flood of hundreds of millions, Euros don't have the heart to nuke the desperate masses, total demographic change. Very unlikely, but more likely than USA becoming another South Africa.

    Agreed that scenario #1 is the likeliest. That said, though, in such a scenario, couldn’t Muslim, Africans, and White European liberals ally to bring in even more Muslims and Africans to Western Europe so that they would form a majority of the total population there?

    Also, is Western Europe going to remain as progressive on social issues such as women’s rights and same-sex marriage with so many Muslims and Africans there?

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    • Replies: @AP

    Agreed that scenario #1 is the likeliest. That said, though, in such a scenario, couldn’t Muslim, Africans, and White European liberals ally to bring in even more Muslims and Africans to Western Europe so that they would form a majority of the total population there?
     
    Possible but unlikely. We already have European opinions turning against more immigration. Also, immigrants once established won't all want to see the country eroded and their own living standards drop or stagnate. There will be probably be enough of those, plus natives, to prevent this.

    Also, is Western Europe going to remain as progressive on social issues such as women’s rights and same-sex marriage with so many Muslims and Africans there?
     
    I suspect it will for Europeans, but the Europeans will provide broad leeway for the newcomers to do what they want in their own communities, for the sake of peace, and may even surrender in public places (gays may not dare kiss each other on Paris streets anymore; women may "choose" to cover themselves on such streets also). I suspect France won't be so brave with a Burka ban if the % of Muslims is twice what it is now and if such a ban makes them angry.
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  150. Mr. XYZ says:
    @AP
    I have some Puerto Rican and Cuban colleagues whom I've known for years. They are all well read in Russian literature (seems to be required reading). Their culture seems rather similar to Slavic culture - people are more open, emotional, laugh louder, generous with those close to them but less fair to outsiders, etc. They treat rum like Slavs treat vodka. However, the Latino culture is more sexualized (i.e, it is not uncommon for wealthy fathers to buy an expensive prostitute for their 16 year old son's birthday, so that in the future he will know how things of that nature are done).

    When we have parties, I notice that Slavs tends to mix with Latinos, and Anglos are apart.

    In your opinion, are Slavs also more socially compatible with Mediterranean Europeans?

    I mean, I would think so since Latinos have a lot of Mediterranean ancestry and since Slavs are socially compatible with them.

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    • Replies: @AP
    Greeks- certainly. As for Italians, or Portuguese, I would assume so, but for whatever reasons there aren't any of such people in my social group so I haven't seen it.
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  151. Mr. XYZ says:
    @Dmitry
    Thanks - I can see that. They're definitely overrepresented as actors and television hosts in media, for only 12% of the population. And in terms of attention given to African-American topics in political discourse, you would think they were more like 1/4 of the population.

    I certainly wouldn’t be surprised if they are 1/4ths of the Democratic Party in the United States. As far as I can tell, it’s primarily the Democrats who talk about African-American issues. Republicans don’t appear to talk much about African-American issues unless they’re shaming “welfare addicts” or whatever.

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  152. Mr. XYZ says:
    @AP
    History. Until fairly recently they were the only large minority, unlike other groups they have not really assimilated over time, they have been a part of the USA since practically the beginning, and have accordingly had a deep influence on American culture.

    Yeah, African-Americans often have more of a claim on the American identity than American Whites do due to having lived here longer. Most (maybe 80%) of African-Americans are descended from African slaves who were imported to the U.S. before the mid-19th century whereas a significant part of American Whites appears to be descended from post-1840 European immigrants to the U.S. (with Southern Whites appearing to be an exception to this rule, since the Southern U.S. had few immigrants before the 1960s).

    Also, as a side note, African-Americans did produce some positive cultural achievements for the U.S.–there’s sports (basketball, football, track-and-field, et cetera), jazz music, rap music, soul food, Kwanzaa, Ebonics, et cetera.

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  153. Mr. XYZ says:
    @Anatoly Karlin
    Assuming no disruptive singularities/biosingularities:

    * Most far gone W. Europe countries become like Lebanon, others converge to where France is now. But no Eurabia anywhere, ever, because native breeders will make their inevitable resurgence. (Fertility preferences are heritable, and breeding genes are ultracompetitive. France has been selecting against low fertility preferences for almost two centuries now).

    Would Germans with breeder genes be willing to have a lot of children in the western, more overcrowded part of Germany, though?

    I mean, France certainly has a lot of living space, but the Benelux countries and western Germany don’t.

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    • Replies: @Anatoly Karlin
    I don't think this matters much. Look at the ghettos where Haredi Jews live in Israel.
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  154. Mr. XYZ says:

    Also, as a side note, if one steers clear of dangerous areas, living in a U.S. state which is 25+% African-American might not be too bad. For instance, I’ve heard that the Atlanta suburbs in Georgia are pretty vibrant.

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    • Replies: @AquariusAnon
    Atlanta's black problem isn't just concentrated in one area. Blacks are around 45% of Greater Atlanta and consequently many of them are in the suburbs. Many suburbs are even black majority like Henry County for example, with even Cobb County managing to become 30% black.

    "White" suburbs in Atlanta are not that common, mostly towards the North. White exurbs are far more common though. Blacks really dominate the culture and politics in Greater Atlanta, and even mid-level managers and below in the Fortune 500 companies there have significant amounts of blacks, if not dominated by them.

    Value for money is low, with high crime rates that sometimes spills over to "white" areas, potholed roads covered with steel plates, and horrendous traffic jams. Black rap culture is ubiquitous. The high end mall, Lenox Square, has a 75% black clientele, and this is the mall with stores like Louis Vuitton, Salvatore Ferragamo, Fendi etc. with Nieman Marcus as an anchor. Majority of nightclubs even the "high end" ones play hard rap too.
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  155. @Dan Bagrov
    Yeah, this is right. I've been hoping against hope that Trump could sort this out but America is too far gone. I wouldn't totally dismiss the demographic risks of Chinese flooding Siberia and the far east, simply due to the great numbers of Chinamen, but indeed the draw is minimal, especially when there are so many warmer places with established Hua-Qiao communities. Chinese demographic invasion is a bigger risk to America where they have burrowed their way deep into the economic trunk of the country (go to any office of a big company). Russia is better off staying with China, and waiting for Populist-Nationlists to take power in Europe and for the USA to become overwhelmed by the scope of Chinese infiltration and soft power. Heaven forbid Apple lose access to the Chinese market! Better hand them Taiwan or even Hawaii! Time is on Russia's side, as long as the government stays reasonably competent, even if it will be a mostly Chinese century.

    This is mostly true. I don’t see Chinese immigrating in large numbers to Russia, at least in the sense of lebrensraum. The only non-Asian country susceptible to the “yellow peril” is Australia and perhaps parts of Canada, more specifically Vancouver.

    Demographically I see Australia specifically stabilizing around 50% white, 35% Chinese, and 15% other. Canada will on the other hand have similar demographics, but substitute Chinese for South Asian, with higher weight to “other” since Greater Vancouver is set to have a Chinese plurality if not majority.

    Russia will be largely spared of mass Chinese immigration. However, if Russia continues to stagnate, China continues to grow in power albeit even if more slowly, and US sanctions against Russia amount to a full embargo (all 3 situations looking highly, highly likely at this point), then the Belt and Road will eventually give Russia a quasi, more subtle Golden Horde 2.0 type situation.

    Chinese won’t be living in masses in Russia, but the economy will largely be Chinese oriented with strategic Chinese investments Chinese-ran and Chinese-staffed, and to protect trade, even a permanent PLA military base or 2 on Russian soil. A multi-vectored independent Russia as desired by the Russian elite will probably not happen, with Russia relegated to being a junior partner/vassal state of China. China won’t be actually controlling Russia politically, but a Chinese economic stranglehold on Russia will mean less freedom in Russian geopolitical maneuvering. Relations will be similar to current US-Japan relation or where China-Pakistan relations are clearly headed.

    I predict around and no more than 1 million Chinese to live in Russia in such a situation with maybe 1/2 in European Russia, 1/3 in the Far East and the rest in Siberia, along with 10,000-50,000 PLA soldiers. On the ground, I expect not too much to happen: The SWPL-oriented places that won’t survive the upcoming embargo will probably eventually re-open years later as Chinese oriented/operated establishments, whether for tourists or businessmen/workers, but a majority of SWPL places will probably survive and continue to cater towards upper middle class Russians. Chinese language signs will probably be ubiquitous not just in Sheremetyevo Airport, but in the entire city as a whole, with translations for all street signs and informational signs.

    Once Russia ends up as a quasi Chinese tributary state in such a situation, Poland will probably really take off. It will still be 99% white, and as the first stop in Europe for the new Silk Route, it will profit immensely with Warsaw being a massive trade and logistics hub, on top of even becoming a tech hub.

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    • Replies: @Daniel Chieh
    China didn't have military bases or ports even in actual tributary states. You only need them if bombing random people around the world is of central importance to your world plans, which I highly doubt will ever be China's. Its really quite senseless.
    , @Felix Keverich
    How would Russia's stagnation cause the country to become a "tributary state"?
    Why would Russia need Chinese bases on its territory?
    How is Poland supposed to benefit from China's Silk Route when Russia is under a full Western embargo? The sad truth is that conflict between Russia and West transforms Poland (and much of the rest of Eastern Europe) into a permanent dead end.

    You are a good Russophobic troll, but your views do not make a whole lot of sense.

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  156. Rosie says:
    @Thulean Friend
    There are two ways of seeing the migration debate. On the surface, countries like Australia or Canada and to an extent the US (most of its Asian & African migration tend to be elites, whereas only Latinos are not) are importing an elite. This is essentially IQ nationalism. Europe is not getting elites from Africa or MENA.

    So a race-blind IQ nationalist would conclude that Europe is doing badly. But an ethnic nationalist would draw the opposite conclusion. If the goal is to create a homeland for white peoples, would you rather fight a large amount of highly intelligent people who, even if they might be drawn from a wide range of backgrounds, could be united in an anti-white front (as the left in the West has discovered) or would you fight a much more dull group of people who largely do not have access/influence over your institutions? Then the fight becomes primarily one within your in-group, which is preferable in the long run since if you can't win your in-group then nothing else won't matter anyway.


    On top of that, non-European migration into the EU is running at around 500,000-750,000 on an annual basis right now, after the surge of 2015-6, and this is into a bloc of 500 million people. This is around half the (legal) level into the US, which has 335 million people. So the non-white migration into Europe, despite the geographical proximity to Africa/MENA is still lower not just per capita but even in absolute terms. And this is with, as AP points out, an elite more amendable to migration.

    This is in the process of changing. My own country (Sweden) will elect a new parliament in the next month. I don't have much nice things to say about SD since they've cucked badly compared to their positions even four years ago, but it isn't really about them. Even the mainstream center-right parties are adopting a harder line. There is a slow but steady change in the population. AfD is now increasingly getting closer to 20% and CSU/CDU are forced to become harsher as well. This will continue. We all know about Italy's evolution.

    Not only does Europe has much lower non-European migration per capita, but it also has a much higher base of white people on top of the fact that the people we get are on average much less capable in the event of a serious conflict. The US has a lot of things going for it, but as it comes to being a homeland for white people, I'd rank its chances next to the bottom of the list.

    So a race-blind IQ nationalist would conclude that Europe is doing badly. But an ethnic nationalist would draw the opposite conclusion. If the goal is to create a homeland for white peoples, would you rather fight a large amount of highly intelligent people who, even if they might be drawn from a wide range of backgrounds, could be united in an anti-white front (as the left in the West has discovered) or would you fight a much more dull group of people who largely do not have access/influence over your institutions? Then the fight becomes primarily one within your in-group, which is preferable in the long run since if you can’t win your in-group then nothing else won’t matter anyway.

    I very much agree. The trouble with high IQ immigrants is that they assimilate, and that is the worst case scenario. Richard Spencer has said the same.

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    • Replies: @Nznz
    Is it possible to steer the SJWs into attacking the IQ fetishists like Steve Sailer et al instead of the WNs at least in the meantime? My thoughts are that IQ fetishists, transhumanists, MRAs, and alt righters are not really WNs or even pro-white per se, but they are still despised by SJWs and liberals just the same, so it will be very useful to manipulate the anger of SJWs and liberals towards them instead, and to take some of the heat off the WNs, and I remember in a survey about how something like 40 or 35 percent of Stormfronts' is female, i can safely say that that is multiple times higher than the female percentage among Unz review commenters. Like if Germany hates both France and Russia, can France make Germany go after Russia first while france uses that chance to fortify its border and buy time?
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  157. Hellerick says:

    The siloviks [...] still live in the world of the 1970s where China is a Third World dump and unworthy of serious attention.

    Doubtful claim. I don’t know any Russian who would’t be aware that China is a powerful and advanced nation extremely important to Russia.

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    • Replies: @JL
    Do you know any Russian siloviki? We're talking about cops, soldiers, officers, intelligence agents, etc. These are people you really have to live in Russia to know. This is not even to mention the liberasts, for whom the sun always rises and sets in the US, and don't take China seriously at all.
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  158. AP says:
    @Hyperborean
    I think you are underestimating the dysfunction that the political culture of Latin Americans bring to the US.

    Even with the current numbers, the last election was a very Latin affair, the Caudillo vs Evita.

    I think political culture will gradually shift to a more Latin American format.

    I think political gridlock will increase. And unlike many South American countries where a European-Middle Eastern elite rule, the US race relations mandate more power-sharing. And since racial divisions will most likely become even stronger, more disagreements and disunity within the government will arise.

    Populist dissenters who support short-termist policies will also become more common.

    This doesn't mean that America won't be a liveable place, but it makes me believe that America's great power status and relative world domination will disappear and America will be demoted to a second-rate power.

    Even with the current numbers, the last election was a very Latin affair, the Caudillo vs Evita.

    Heh – it certainly looks that way. The similarity may merely be a coincidence; there have been populist movements in the USA before there were many Latinos in the USA (Huey Long), such movements with Great Leaders have existed in European countries with no Latinos, and Trump’s voters are white and don’t seem to be Latinized in any other way.

    And unlike many South American countries where a European-Middle Eastern elite rule, the US race relations mandate more power-sharing.

    Or, the elite will continue as before but have pseudo-minorities for presentation. Like Obama, half-white and raised largely by his white grandparents, whose father was was from a different part of Africa than African-Americans came from, being an “African-American.” Miami Cubans or someone like Jeb Bush’s half-Mexican son might be Latinos.

    And since racial divisions will most likely become even stronger, more disagreements and disunity within the government will arise.

    Possible. OTOH Latinos might have been the solution to the black-white racial problems. If 1/3 of the US population is white plus Asian, and another 1/3 is Anglicized half-Mexican/half white, the latter would probably just be white people who are a little darker and who have family salsa or burrito recipes.* Then you’d have the resentful descendants of slaves still at the bottom but only 10% of less of the population as their share of the pie shrinks, and the rest being recent immigrants busy working cheaply.

    This doesn’t mean that America won’t be a liveable place, but it makes me believe that America’s great power status and relative world domination will disappear

    It might be eclipsed by China, but China has no history of global power projection. So who would replace America, which would still have about 200 million Europeans*, would still host much of the world’s cognitive elite, and would still have what it had built up. The African and Islamic worlds won’t do so in the next century. Brazil, India, or Latin America itself – very doubtful. Europe will be hobbled with its own problems. Russia has too few people, is in China’s shadow, and has its own potential Islam problem. If Intermarium happens it will have too few people. So most likely, America remains the main global power by default.

    *Mexicans-Americans are about 45% European, so even an evenly mixed population would be over 70% European, thus generally European. When you googleimage half white half Mexican you get images like this:

    If they introduced themselves as Italian or Spanish most people wouldn’t question it.

    (for some reason Jeb Bush’s kids are the least European-looking of such people)

    Here is an interesting list:

    http://www.latina.com/entertainment/celebrity/half-latino-celebrities-stars

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    • Replies: @Hyperborean

    Or, the elite will continue as before but have pseudo-minorities for presentation.
     
    I suppose this depends on whether the coloured masses will tolerate it. It might work, but I expect they will at least need some quotas, whether formal or informal.

    Possible. OTOH Latinos might have been the solution to the black-white racial problems.
     
    I don't know enough to make a prediction about future US demographics, but I expect it to depend on whether it is simply white Americans marrying out or an all-round ethnic mixing.

    So who would replace America, which would still have about 200 million Europeans*, would still host much of the world’s cognitive elite, and would still have what it had built up.
     
    Relative was perhaps the wrong word to use. We might simply face a situation where few countries are able to exert much pressure beyond a regional theatre. It depends on who declines faster. But the US needs to maintain parity on a lot more fronts than her competitors.
    , @Mr. XYZ
    Russia and the Intermarium could theoretically team up and become a formidable rival to the United States. After all, combined, they would probably have a similar number of Whites to those in the United States. Of course, such an Intermarium could be hurt by the lack of Jewish and Asian cognitive elites--something which could prevent them from innovating as much as the U.S. does.

    Of course, the distrust among Russia and the Intermarium should be enormous due to memories of Communist rule. Still, they do seem to agree on some things--such as keeping their countries White and European (the Eurasian Economic Union appears to be mostly for show; indeed, as far as I can tell, Central Asian gastarbeiters in Russia don't bring their girlfriends/spouses with them and thus don't have many children in Russia).

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  159. AP says:
    @Mr. XYZ
    In your opinion, are Slavs also more socially compatible with Mediterranean Europeans?

    I mean, I would think so since Latinos have a lot of Mediterranean ancestry and since Slavs are socially compatible with them.

    Greeks- certainly. As for Italians, or Portuguese, I would assume so, but for whatever reasons there aren’t any of such people in my social group so I haven’t seen it.

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  160. AP says:
    @Mr. XYZ
    Agreed that scenario #1 is the likeliest. That said, though, in such a scenario, couldn't Muslim, Africans, and White European liberals ally to bring in even more Muslims and Africans to Western Europe so that they would form a majority of the total population there?

    Also, is Western Europe going to remain as progressive on social issues such as women's rights and same-sex marriage with so many Muslims and Africans there?

    Agreed that scenario #1 is the likeliest. That said, though, in such a scenario, couldn’t Muslim, Africans, and White European liberals ally to bring in even more Muslims and Africans to Western Europe so that they would form a majority of the total population there?

    Possible but unlikely. We already have European opinions turning against more immigration. Also, immigrants once established won’t all want to see the country eroded and their own living standards drop or stagnate. There will be probably be enough of those, plus natives, to prevent this.

    Also, is Western Europe going to remain as progressive on social issues such as women’s rights and same-sex marriage with so many Muslims and Africans there?

    I suspect it will for Europeans, but the Europeans will provide broad leeway for the newcomers to do what they want in their own communities, for the sake of peace, and may even surrender in public places (gays may not dare kiss each other on Paris streets anymore; women may “choose” to cover themselves on such streets also). I suspect France won’t be so brave with a Burka ban if the % of Muslims is twice what it is now and if such a ban makes them angry.

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    • Replies: @Mr. XYZ

    Possible but unlikely. We already have European opinions turning against more immigration. Also, immigrants once established won’t all want to see the country eroded and their own living standards drop or stagnate. There will be probably be enough of those, plus natives, to prevent this.
     
    Makes sense.

    Also, do you think that IQ-enhancing technology in the farther future would be widely used by the newcomers in Europe?

    I suspect it will for Europeans, but the Europeans will provide broad leeway for the newcomers to do what they want in their own communities, for the sake of peace, and may even surrender in public places (gays may not dare kiss each other on Paris streets anymore; women may “choose” to cover themselves on such streets also). I suspect France won’t be so brave with a Burka ban if the % of Muslims is twice what it is now and if such a ban makes them angry.
     
    So, you don't think that there would be a large shift in attitudes on these topics among Western European Muslims and Africans?

    For what it's worth, the last time that I checked, 51% of the U.S. Black population was in favor of same-sex marriage. If a majority of U.S. Blacks are able to come around on this issue, why can't Western European Muslims and Africans? After all, their average IQs are probably comparable to those of U.S. Blacks.
    , @Bukephalos
    The alliance between foreign migrants and 'white liberals', as XYZ mentions, is what it's all about. Call it population replacement or bioleninism or whatever, this is exactly how it was designed. They don't really have to like muslims, or Africans or have any desire to live with them, but they need them to have their policies and preference imposed on the white mass they seek to crush and repress.

    And the same dynamic is true in the US. Also your models are a bit too rough imo because you should look at the age tranches: what is the racial composition for people under 18? For people between 18-40 that are typically supposed to drive economic growth as they start families and have a high need for mortgages and consumption.

    I suppose as a teenager living in a country where you no longer comprise a majority (white youths in the US from now on) you may already feel displaced and have an identitarian/tribal reaction. But maybe high segregation, poz and propaganda offset that. It does seem to me though some of the right-wing youth that emerged and became famous these last few years are the product of precisely this.
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  161. @AquariusAnon
    This is mostly true. I don't see Chinese immigrating in large numbers to Russia, at least in the sense of lebrensraum. The only non-Asian country susceptible to the "yellow peril" is Australia and perhaps parts of Canada, more specifically Vancouver.

    Demographically I see Australia specifically stabilizing around 50% white, 35% Chinese, and 15% other. Canada will on the other hand have similar demographics, but substitute Chinese for South Asian, with higher weight to "other" since Greater Vancouver is set to have a Chinese plurality if not majority.

    Russia will be largely spared of mass Chinese immigration. However, if Russia continues to stagnate, China continues to grow in power albeit even if more slowly, and US sanctions against Russia amount to a full embargo (all 3 situations looking highly, highly likely at this point), then the Belt and Road will eventually give Russia a quasi, more subtle Golden Horde 2.0 type situation.

    Chinese won't be living in masses in Russia, but the economy will largely be Chinese oriented with strategic Chinese investments Chinese-ran and Chinese-staffed, and to protect trade, even a permanent PLA military base or 2 on Russian soil. A multi-vectored independent Russia as desired by the Russian elite will probably not happen, with Russia relegated to being a junior partner/vassal state of China. China won't be actually controlling Russia politically, but a Chinese economic stranglehold on Russia will mean less freedom in Russian geopolitical maneuvering. Relations will be similar to current US-Japan relation or where China-Pakistan relations are clearly headed.

    I predict around and no more than 1 million Chinese to live in Russia in such a situation with maybe 1/2 in European Russia, 1/3 in the Far East and the rest in Siberia, along with 10,000-50,000 PLA soldiers. On the ground, I expect not too much to happen: The SWPL-oriented places that won't survive the upcoming embargo will probably eventually re-open years later as Chinese oriented/operated establishments, whether for tourists or businessmen/workers, but a majority of SWPL places will probably survive and continue to cater towards upper middle class Russians. Chinese language signs will probably be ubiquitous not just in Sheremetyevo Airport, but in the entire city as a whole, with translations for all street signs and informational signs.

    Once Russia ends up as a quasi Chinese tributary state in such a situation, Poland will probably really take off. It will still be 99% white, and as the first stop in Europe for the new Silk Route, it will profit immensely with Warsaw being a massive trade and logistics hub, on top of even becoming a tech hub.

    China didn’t have military bases or ports even in actual tributary states. You only need them if bombing random people around the world is of central importance to your world plans, which I highly doubt will ever be China’s. Its really quite senseless.

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    • Replies: @Hyperborean
    Well, China already has a military base in Djibouti. While I doubt it will ever approach the US level, I wonder if there might not develop a sense of mission creep eventually.
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  162. @AP

    Even with the current numbers, the last election was a very Latin affair, the Caudillo vs Evita.
     
    Heh - it certainly looks that way. The similarity may merely be a coincidence; there have been populist movements in the USA before there were many Latinos in the USA (Huey Long), such movements with Great Leaders have existed in European countries with no Latinos, and Trump's voters are white and don't seem to be Latinized in any other way.

    And unlike many South American countries where a European-Middle Eastern elite rule, the US race relations mandate more power-sharing.
     
    Or, the elite will continue as before but have pseudo-minorities for presentation. Like Obama, half-white and raised largely by his white grandparents, whose father was was from a different part of Africa than African-Americans came from, being an "African-American." Miami Cubans or someone like Jeb Bush's half-Mexican son might be Latinos.

    And since racial divisions will most likely become even stronger, more disagreements and disunity within the government will arise.
     
    Possible. OTOH Latinos might have been the solution to the black-white racial problems. If 1/3 of the US population is white plus Asian, and another 1/3 is Anglicized half-Mexican/half white, the latter would probably just be white people who are a little darker and who have family salsa or burrito recipes.* Then you'd have the resentful descendants of slaves still at the bottom but only 10% of less of the population as their share of the pie shrinks, and the rest being recent immigrants busy working cheaply.

    This doesn’t mean that America won’t be a liveable place, but it makes me believe that America’s great power status and relative world domination will disappear
     
    It might be eclipsed by China, but China has no history of global power projection. So who would replace America, which would still have about 200 million Europeans*, would still host much of the world's cognitive elite, and would still have what it had built up. The African and Islamic worlds won't do so in the next century. Brazil, India, or Latin America itself - very doubtful. Europe will be hobbled with its own problems. Russia has too few people, is in China's shadow, and has its own potential Islam problem. If Intermarium happens it will have too few people. So most likely, America remains the main global power by default.

    *Mexicans-Americans are about 45% European, so even an evenly mixed population would be over 70% European, thus generally European. When you googleimage half white half Mexican you get images like this:

    https://i.pinimg.com/originals/1b/c6/be/1bc6be58c51cc6cf4a384655455e3115.jpg

    http://www.latina.com/sites/default/files/460650126.jpg

    https://i.ytimg.com/vi/mk3hiZL6KWE/maxresdefault.jpg

    If they introduced themselves as Italian or Spanish most people wouldn't question it.

    (for some reason Jeb Bush's kids are the least European-looking of such people)

    Here is an interesting list:

    http://www.latina.com/entertainment/celebrity/half-latino-celebrities-stars

    Or, the elite will continue as before but have pseudo-minorities for presentation.

    I suppose this depends on whether the coloured masses will tolerate it. It might work, but I expect they will at least need some quotas, whether formal or informal.

    Possible. OTOH Latinos might have been the solution to the black-white racial problems.

    I don’t know enough to make a prediction about future US demographics, but I expect it to depend on whether it is simply white Americans marrying out or an all-round ethnic mixing.

    So who would replace America, which would still have about 200 million Europeans*, would still host much of the world’s cognitive elite, and would still have what it had built up.

    Relative was perhaps the wrong word to use. We might simply face a situation where few countries are able to exert much pressure beyond a regional theatre. It depends on who declines faster. But the US needs to maintain parity on a lot more fronts than her competitors.

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    • Replies: @Hyperborean
    It's amusing to read American MSM - loyal Party cadre like Tom Perez get to claim honorary non-white status, but Ted Cruz and Marco Rubio, despite the best efforts of the GOP, are portrayed as just 'plain white dudes'.
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  163. @Mr. XYZ
    Also, as a side note, if one steers clear of dangerous areas, living in a U.S. state which is 25+% African-American might not be too bad. For instance, I've heard that the Atlanta suburbs in Georgia are pretty vibrant.

    Atlanta’s black problem isn’t just concentrated in one area. Blacks are around 45% of Greater Atlanta and consequently many of them are in the suburbs. Many suburbs are even black majority like Henry County for example, with even Cobb County managing to become 30% black.

    “White” suburbs in Atlanta are not that common, mostly towards the North. White exurbs are far more common though. Blacks really dominate the culture and politics in Greater Atlanta, and even mid-level managers and below in the Fortune 500 companies there have significant amounts of blacks, if not dominated by them.

    Value for money is low, with high crime rates that sometimes spills over to “white” areas, potholed roads covered with steel plates, and horrendous traffic jams. Black rap culture is ubiquitous. The high end mall, Lenox Square, has a 75% black clientele, and this is the mall with stores like Louis Vuitton, Salvatore Ferragamo, Fendi etc. with Nieman Marcus as an anchor. Majority of nightclubs even the “high end” ones play hard rap too.

    Read More
    • Replies: @Mr. XYZ
    Very interesting! Thanks.

    Anyway, is Georgia rapidly growing exclusively due to Blacks, Hispanics, and Asians? Or are a lot of White people also moving to Georgia?

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  164. @Hyperborean

    Or, the elite will continue as before but have pseudo-minorities for presentation.
     
    I suppose this depends on whether the coloured masses will tolerate it. It might work, but I expect they will at least need some quotas, whether formal or informal.

    Possible. OTOH Latinos might have been the solution to the black-white racial problems.
     
    I don't know enough to make a prediction about future US demographics, but I expect it to depend on whether it is simply white Americans marrying out or an all-round ethnic mixing.

    So who would replace America, which would still have about 200 million Europeans*, would still host much of the world’s cognitive elite, and would still have what it had built up.
     
    Relative was perhaps the wrong word to use. We might simply face a situation where few countries are able to exert much pressure beyond a regional theatre. It depends on who declines faster. But the US needs to maintain parity on a lot more fronts than her competitors.

    It’s amusing to read American MSM – loyal Party cadre like Tom Perez get to claim honorary non-white status, but Ted Cruz and Marco Rubio, despite the best efforts of the GOP, are portrayed as just ‘plain white dudes’.

    Read More
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  165. @Daniel Chieh
    China didn't have military bases or ports even in actual tributary states. You only need them if bombing random people around the world is of central importance to your world plans, which I highly doubt will ever be China's. Its really quite senseless.

    Well, China already has a military base in Djibouti. While I doubt it will ever approach the US level, I wonder if there might not develop a sense of mission creep eventually.

    Read More
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  166. Mr. XYZ says:
    @AP

    Agreed that scenario #1 is the likeliest. That said, though, in such a scenario, couldn’t Muslim, Africans, and White European liberals ally to bring in even more Muslims and Africans to Western Europe so that they would form a majority of the total population there?
     
    Possible but unlikely. We already have European opinions turning against more immigration. Also, immigrants once established won't all want to see the country eroded and their own living standards drop or stagnate. There will be probably be enough of those, plus natives, to prevent this.

    Also, is Western Europe going to remain as progressive on social issues such as women’s rights and same-sex marriage with so many Muslims and Africans there?
     
    I suspect it will for Europeans, but the Europeans will provide broad leeway for the newcomers to do what they want in their own communities, for the sake of peace, and may even surrender in public places (gays may not dare kiss each other on Paris streets anymore; women may "choose" to cover themselves on such streets also). I suspect France won't be so brave with a Burka ban if the % of Muslims is twice what it is now and if such a ban makes them angry.

    Possible but unlikely. We already have European opinions turning against more immigration. Also, immigrants once established won’t all want to see the country eroded and their own living standards drop or stagnate. There will be probably be enough of those, plus natives, to prevent this.

    Makes sense.

    Also, do you think that IQ-enhancing technology in the farther future would be widely used by the newcomers in Europe?

    I suspect it will for Europeans, but the Europeans will provide broad leeway for the newcomers to do what they want in their own communities, for the sake of peace, and may even surrender in public places (gays may not dare kiss each other on Paris streets anymore; women may “choose” to cover themselves on such streets also). I suspect France won’t be so brave with a Burka ban if the % of Muslims is twice what it is now and if such a ban makes them angry.

    So, you don’t think that there would be a large shift in attitudes on these topics among Western European Muslims and Africans?

    For what it’s worth, the last time that I checked, 51% of the U.S. Black population was in favor of same-sex marriage. If a majority of U.S. Blacks are able to come around on this issue, why can’t Western European Muslims and Africans? After all, their average IQs are probably comparable to those of U.S. Blacks.

    Read More
    • Replies: @Duke of Qin
    Black societies are built around social-sexual permissiveness. The only reason that blacks oppose homosexuality at all is because black women tend to be religious and black men more macho and don't like fags. Arab Muslims are extremely unlikely to adopt such attitudes, particularly the ones in Europe who desire to maintain their cultures and separateness are doubling down on obstinate religion.
    , @Hyperborean

    Also, do you think that IQ-enhancing technology in the farther future would be widely used by the newcomers in Europe?
     
    Can they afford it?

    If a majority of U.S. Blacks are able to come around on this issue, why can’t Western European Muslims and Africans?
     
    Saracen proles are rather reactionary when it comes to gender roles, the more educated and liberal ones are from anecdotal evidence more likely to be indifferent or in favour.

    Non-Saracen Africans may actually be easier to convert, due to faster acculturation.
    , @dfordoom

    For what it’s worth, the last time that I checked, 51% of the U.S. Black population was in favor of same-sex marriage. If a majority of U.S. Blacks are able to come around on this issue, why can’t Western European Muslims and Africans? After all, their average IQs are probably comparable to those of U.S. Blacks.
     
    IQ is irrelevant. Muslims have a strong alternative belief system that gives them cultural self-confidence. They actually believe in something. And they actually believe (quite correctly) that liberalism is evil.

    The U.S. black population doesn't have any alternative belief system. They have nothing with which to oppose the Poz.
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  167. Mr. XYZ says:
    @AquariusAnon
    Atlanta's black problem isn't just concentrated in one area. Blacks are around 45% of Greater Atlanta and consequently many of them are in the suburbs. Many suburbs are even black majority like Henry County for example, with even Cobb County managing to become 30% black.

    "White" suburbs in Atlanta are not that common, mostly towards the North. White exurbs are far more common though. Blacks really dominate the culture and politics in Greater Atlanta, and even mid-level managers and below in the Fortune 500 companies there have significant amounts of blacks, if not dominated by them.

    Value for money is low, with high crime rates that sometimes spills over to "white" areas, potholed roads covered with steel plates, and horrendous traffic jams. Black rap culture is ubiquitous. The high end mall, Lenox Square, has a 75% black clientele, and this is the mall with stores like Louis Vuitton, Salvatore Ferragamo, Fendi etc. with Nieman Marcus as an anchor. Majority of nightclubs even the "high end" ones play hard rap too.

    Very interesting! Thanks.

    Anyway, is Georgia rapidly growing exclusively due to Blacks, Hispanics, and Asians? Or are a lot of White people also moving to Georgia?

    Read More
    • Replies: @AquariusAnon
    Actually both minorities and whites are growing in Georgia, but a disproportionately large amount of growth is due to blacks moving in from the failed ghettos of the North specifically. Blacks are attracted to Georgia like a magnet ever since the rap/hip hop industry wholesale moved to Atlanta; this, along with the stranglehold they have on city politics and Fulton and DeKalb county politics, and the presence of an existing black old money elite, gives blacks an outsized cultural and economic influence here. The film industry is rapidly growing too, and that attracts some blacks. This is the "black mecca" of the United States after all; Atlanta to Black America is like what Moscow is to Russia.

    The whites that move here are mostly liberal white collar professionals from the North to chase the vast amount of bugmen jobs here, which have proliferated in the last 10 or so years. For example, Atlanta has the second highest concentration of lawyers in the US after Chicago. Not to mention global headquarters for Coca Cola, NCR, Delta Air Lines, and fake news CNN as some examples. Likewise, these jobs also attract the Asian, majority Indian in the case of Atlanta, cognitive elite.

    The election of Stacey Abrams, a liberal black woman, as the Democrat governor candidate of Georgia shows you where the demographics of Georgia is tipping towards. Whites are growing quite a bit slower than minorities and hence are becoming a minority in Georgia as a whole and hover right around the 40% mark in Greater Atlanta, slightly less than the black population. To be precise as of 2017 according to the US gov, Georgia is 52.8% white and 32.2% black.

    Overall, Atlanta is still a whiter city than Los Angeles, Houston, but that's really not saying much. Economically its going gangbusters right now (the amount of cranes and brand new skyscrapers and condos in Midtown and Buckhead can prove this), but the structural infrastructure and demographic problems render this city unsustainable in the long run.

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  168. Mr. XYZ says:
    @AP

    Even with the current numbers, the last election was a very Latin affair, the Caudillo vs Evita.
     
    Heh - it certainly looks that way. The similarity may merely be a coincidence; there have been populist movements in the USA before there were many Latinos in the USA (Huey Long), such movements with Great Leaders have existed in European countries with no Latinos, and Trump's voters are white and don't seem to be Latinized in any other way.

    And unlike many South American countries where a European-Middle Eastern elite rule, the US race relations mandate more power-sharing.
     
    Or, the elite will continue as before but have pseudo-minorities for presentation. Like Obama, half-white and raised largely by his white grandparents, whose father was was from a different part of Africa than African-Americans came from, being an "African-American." Miami Cubans or someone like Jeb Bush's half-Mexican son might be Latinos.

    And since racial divisions will most likely become even stronger, more disagreements and disunity within the government will arise.
     
    Possible. OTOH Latinos might have been the solution to the black-white racial problems. If 1/3 of the US population is white plus Asian, and another 1/3 is Anglicized half-Mexican/half white, the latter would probably just be white people who are a little darker and who have family salsa or burrito recipes.* Then you'd have the resentful descendants of slaves still at the bottom but only 10% of less of the population as their share of the pie shrinks, and the rest being recent immigrants busy working cheaply.

    This doesn’t mean that America won’t be a liveable place, but it makes me believe that America’s great power status and relative world domination will disappear
     
    It might be eclipsed by China, but China has no history of global power projection. So who would replace America, which would still have about 200 million Europeans*, would still host much of the world's cognitive elite, and would still have what it had built up. The African and Islamic worlds won't do so in the next century. Brazil, India, or Latin America itself - very doubtful. Europe will be hobbled with its own problems. Russia has too few people, is in China's shadow, and has its own potential Islam problem. If Intermarium happens it will have too few people. So most likely, America remains the main global power by default.

    *Mexicans-Americans are about 45% European, so even an evenly mixed population would be over 70% European, thus generally European. When you googleimage half white half Mexican you get images like this:

    https://i.pinimg.com/originals/1b/c6/be/1bc6be58c51cc6cf4a384655455e3115.jpg

    http://www.latina.com/sites/default/files/460650126.jpg

    https://i.ytimg.com/vi/mk3hiZL6KWE/maxresdefault.jpg

    If they introduced themselves as Italian or Spanish most people wouldn't question it.

    (for some reason Jeb Bush's kids are the least European-looking of such people)

    Here is an interesting list:

    http://www.latina.com/entertainment/celebrity/half-latino-celebrities-stars

    Russia and the Intermarium could theoretically team up and become a formidable rival to the United States. After all, combined, they would probably have a similar number of Whites to those in the United States. Of course, such an Intermarium could be hurt by the lack of Jewish and Asian cognitive elites–something which could prevent them from innovating as much as the U.S. does.

    Of course, the distrust among Russia and the Intermarium should be enormous due to memories of Communist rule. Still, they do seem to agree on some things–such as keeping their countries White and European (the Eurasian Economic Union appears to be mostly for show; indeed, as far as I can tell, Central Asian gastarbeiters in Russia don’t bring their girlfriends/spouses with them and thus don’t have many children in Russia).

    Read More
    • Replies: @Hyperborean

    Of course, such an Intermarium could be hurt by the lack of Jewish and Asian cognitive elites–something which could prevent them from innovating as much as the U.S. does.
     
    On the other hand, less subversives.
    , @AP
    Agree. Also -

    Of course, the distrust among Russia and the Intermarium should be enormous due to memories of Communist rule.
     
    Russia's post-Communist behavior has also been cause for much mistrust. By the time any rapprochement would be possible, Russia would probably be deeply integrated into the Chinese system.
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  169. @Mr. XYZ

    Possible but unlikely. We already have European opinions turning against more immigration. Also, immigrants once established won’t all want to see the country eroded and their own living standards drop or stagnate. There will be probably be enough of those, plus natives, to prevent this.
     
    Makes sense.

    Also, do you think that IQ-enhancing technology in the farther future would be widely used by the newcomers in Europe?

    I suspect it will for Europeans, but the Europeans will provide broad leeway for the newcomers to do what they want in their own communities, for the sake of peace, and may even surrender in public places (gays may not dare kiss each other on Paris streets anymore; women may “choose” to cover themselves on such streets also). I suspect France won’t be so brave with a Burka ban if the % of Muslims is twice what it is now and if such a ban makes them angry.
     
    So, you don't think that there would be a large shift in attitudes on these topics among Western European Muslims and Africans?

    For what it's worth, the last time that I checked, 51% of the U.S. Black population was in favor of same-sex marriage. If a majority of U.S. Blacks are able to come around on this issue, why can't Western European Muslims and Africans? After all, their average IQs are probably comparable to those of U.S. Blacks.

    Black societies are built around social-sexual permissiveness. The only reason that blacks oppose homosexuality at all is because black women tend to be religious and black men more macho and don’t like fags. Arab Muslims are extremely unlikely to adopt such attitudes, particularly the ones in Europe who desire to maintain their cultures and separateness are doubling down on obstinate religion.

    Read More
    • Replies: @Mr. XYZ
    Interesting point about Black societies.

    What is interesting, though, is that in spite of Muslim opposition to homosexuality, some Muslims do engage in homosexual acts even in heavily homophobic Muslim countries. For instance, take a look at the dancing boys (bacha bazi) in Afghanistan.
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  170. @Mr. XYZ

    Possible but unlikely. We already have European opinions turning against more immigration. Also, immigrants once established won’t all want to see the country eroded and their own living standards drop or stagnate. There will be probably be enough of those, plus natives, to prevent this.
     
    Makes sense.

    Also, do you think that IQ-enhancing technology in the farther future would be widely used by the newcomers in Europe?

    I suspect it will for Europeans, but the Europeans will provide broad leeway for the newcomers to do what they want in their own communities, for the sake of peace, and may even surrender in public places (gays may not dare kiss each other on Paris streets anymore; women may “choose” to cover themselves on such streets also). I suspect France won’t be so brave with a Burka ban if the % of Muslims is twice what it is now and if such a ban makes them angry.
     
    So, you don't think that there would be a large shift in attitudes on these topics among Western European Muslims and Africans?

    For what it's worth, the last time that I checked, 51% of the U.S. Black population was in favor of same-sex marriage. If a majority of U.S. Blacks are able to come around on this issue, why can't Western European Muslims and Africans? After all, their average IQs are probably comparable to those of U.S. Blacks.

    Also, do you think that IQ-enhancing technology in the farther future would be widely used by the newcomers in Europe?

    Can they afford it?

    If a majority of U.S. Blacks are able to come around on this issue, why can’t Western European Muslims and Africans?

    Saracen proles are rather reactionary when it comes to gender roles, the more educated and liberal ones are from anecdotal evidence more likely to be indifferent or in favour.

    Non-Saracen Africans may actually be easier to convert, due to faster acculturation.

    Read More
    • Replies: @Mr. XYZ

    Can they afford it?
     
    If European governments are going to subsidize it for them, then Yes, very possibly.

    Saracen proles are rather reactionary when it comes to gender roles, the more educated and liberal ones are from anecdotal evidence more likely to be indifferent or in favour.

    Non-Saracen Africans may actually be easier to convert, due to faster acculturation.
     
    Why do Blacks experience faster acculturation?
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  171. @Mr. XYZ
    Russia and the Intermarium could theoretically team up and become a formidable rival to the United States. After all, combined, they would probably have a similar number of Whites to those in the United States. Of course, such an Intermarium could be hurt by the lack of Jewish and Asian cognitive elites--something which could prevent them from innovating as much as the U.S. does.

    Of course, the distrust among Russia and the Intermarium should be enormous due to memories of Communist rule. Still, they do seem to agree on some things--such as keeping their countries White and European (the Eurasian Economic Union appears to be mostly for show; indeed, as far as I can tell, Central Asian gastarbeiters in Russia don't bring their girlfriends/spouses with them and thus don't have many children in Russia).

    Of course, such an Intermarium could be hurt by the lack of Jewish and Asian cognitive elites–something which could prevent them from innovating as much as the U.S. does.

    On the other hand, less subversives.

    Read More
    • Replies: @Mr. XYZ
    So, you think that Eastern European countries--such as Tsarist Russia in the past--were smart in encouraging their Jews to emigrate?
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  172. Mr. XYZ says:
    @Duke of Qin
    Black societies are built around social-sexual permissiveness. The only reason that blacks oppose homosexuality at all is because black women tend to be religious and black men more macho and don't like fags. Arab Muslims are extremely unlikely to adopt such attitudes, particularly the ones in Europe who desire to maintain their cultures and separateness are doubling down on obstinate religion.

    Interesting point about Black societies.

    What is interesting, though, is that in spite of Muslim opposition to homosexuality, some Muslims do engage in homosexual acts even in heavily homophobic Muslim countries. For instance, take a look at the dancing boys (bacha bazi) in Afghanistan.

    Read More
    • Replies: @Talha

    in spite of Muslim opposition to homosexuality, some Muslims do engage in homosexual acts even in heavily homophobic Muslim countries
     
    No contradiction here; religion is supposed to help keep certain deviations in check in a society otherwise you get stuff like this:
    https://m.youtube.com/watch?v=WZ8ni5sRJkY

    Peace.
    , @AP
    Muslims don't place much stigma on "tops" and don't consider that to be homosexuality. I heard a credible account from a gay "bottom" who had a very enjoyable sexual holiday in rural Turkey, with people who didn't speak much English.
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  173. Mr. XYZ says:
    @Hyperborean

    Also, do you think that IQ-enhancing technology in the farther future would be widely used by the newcomers in Europe?
     
    Can they afford it?

    If a majority of U.S. Blacks are able to come around on this issue, why can’t Western European Muslims and Africans?
     
    Saracen proles are rather reactionary when it comes to gender roles, the more educated and liberal ones are from anecdotal evidence more likely to be indifferent or in favour.

    Non-Saracen Africans may actually be easier to convert, due to faster acculturation.

    Can they afford it?

    If European governments are going to subsidize it for them, then Yes, very possibly.

    Saracen proles are rather reactionary when it comes to gender roles, the more educated and liberal ones are from anecdotal evidence more likely to be indifferent or in favour.

    Non-Saracen Africans may actually be easier to convert, due to faster acculturation.

    Why do Blacks experience faster acculturation?

    Read More
    • Replies: @Hyperborean

    Why do Blacks experience faster acculturation?
     
    The religious barrier is weaker.
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  174. Mr. XYZ says:
    @Hyperborean

    Of course, such an Intermarium could be hurt by the lack of Jewish and Asian cognitive elites–something which could prevent them from innovating as much as the U.S. does.
     
    On the other hand, less subversives.

    So, you think that Eastern European countries–such as Tsarist Russia in the past–were smart in encouraging their Jews to emigrate?

    Read More
    • Replies: @Hyperborean

    So, you think that Eastern European countries–such as Tsarist Russia in the past–were smart in encouraging their Jews to emigrate?
     
    In Tsarist Russia's case it seems like Jews simply carried on their subversion from the US. But in general, yes.

    It is also noteworthy that more Jews would have meant that the middle and professional classes would be more tilted towards Jews, and given their cliquish manners, Gentiles would have found it harder to break into Jewish-dominated sections of society.
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  175. Mr. XYZ says:

    Also, out of curiosity–to AP: Do you think that a surviving but reformed Soviet Union (perhaps existing as a confederation) would have looked similar to what Western Europe looks like today or will look like in the future?

    Indeed, what would have been the Muslim percentage of the total population in a surviving but reformed Soviet Union in, say, 2050 or 2100? 25%? More than that?

    Read More
    • Replies: @AP
    Muslim percentage would have been higher than in the EU, but also generally less troublesome, unless the Americans managed to successfully stir them up.
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  176. @Mr. XYZ

    Can they afford it?
     
    If European governments are going to subsidize it for them, then Yes, very possibly.

    Saracen proles are rather reactionary when it comes to gender roles, the more educated and liberal ones are from anecdotal evidence more likely to be indifferent or in favour.

    Non-Saracen Africans may actually be easier to convert, due to faster acculturation.
     
    Why do Blacks experience faster acculturation?

    Why do Blacks experience faster acculturation?

    The religious barrier is weaker.

    Read More
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  177. @Mr. XYZ
    So, you think that Eastern European countries--such as Tsarist Russia in the past--were smart in encouraging their Jews to emigrate?

    So, you think that Eastern European countries–such as Tsarist Russia in the past–were smart in encouraging their Jews to emigrate?

    In Tsarist Russia’s case it seems like Jews simply carried on their subversion from the US. But in general, yes.

    It is also noteworthy that more Jews would have meant that the middle and professional classes would be more tilted towards Jews, and given their cliquish manners, Gentiles would have found it harder to break into Jewish-dominated sections of society.

    Read More
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  178. LondonBob says:
    @Dmitry
    Thanks - I can see that. They're definitely overrepresented as actors and television hosts in media, for only 12% of the population. And in terms of attention given to African-American topics in political discourse, you would think they were more like 1/4 of the population.

    Blacks are hugely dysfunctional, almost all policy issues revolve around mitigating that. Sorry your comment sounds like you just don’t have enough experience with blacks or societies that have to manage the issue.

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  179. dux.ie says:
    @Neal
    America will lose its position only when the smart and creative 1% (of the world) no longer live in the US. The question is where will it be attractive for the 1% to live?
    Europe?
    Japan?
    China?
    Russia?
    India?
    Only in the US do I see smart Germans, Chineses, Russians, Poles, Indians, Koreans, Vietnameses, etc... working side by side. Is there somewhere else where they can relocate to?
    Who's the potential new leader to replace the US?

    Your prediction about the US is more about wishful thinking than actual factual analysis.

    Look at some cold hard data of Weighted Fractional Count (WFC) of scientific research output from NatureIndex.com, an off-shoot of the Nature Journal. USA does not look like able to pull out from its decline.

    There was a question about the ethnic distribution for the proportion of USA WFC score. Well to look at that from a different angle,

    Country Dif WFC12 WFC17
    USA -2937.73 18729.5 15791.8
    China +2938.43 4511.28 7449.71

    It is intriguing that between 2012 and 2017 USA lost -2937.73 points while China gained +2938.43 points, numerical magnitude difference of 0.7 out of about 3000 points. While it is unlikely US’s lost was the direct effect of China’s gain, China’s returnee scientist program has attracted significant researchers internationally to return that there could be a global reverse musical chairs going on with increasing unfilled vacancies.

    Various other countries are attempting to repatriate their own national researchers back to their home countries, e.g.

    https://www.axios.com/canada-has-pulled-off-a-brain-heist-1aba7430-82d5-4316-8008-e039d3964b36.html

    “””The “Canada 150 Research Chairs Program” is spending $117 million on seven-year grants of either $350,000 a year or $1 million a year. It’s part of a campaign by numerous countries to attract scholars unhappy with Brexit, the election of Donald Trump, and other political trends, sweetened with unusually generous research conditions. Seoul-born Wendy Hui Kyong Chun, a professor at Brown University known for her work on fake news, is moving to Canada. So is Alan Aspuru-Guzik, a Harvard chemistry professor working on quantum computing and artificial intelligence. They are among 24 top academic minds around the world wooed to Canada by an aggressive recruitment effort offering ultra-attractive sinecures, seven-year funding arrangements.”””

    https://www.theglobalist.com/brexit-is-britain-facing-a-mass-academic-exodus/

    EU research funding has been an important catalyst for this development. It has generated more than 19,000 jobs across the UK and makes up roughly 14% of all UK income from research grants.

    French officials, aware of the importance of elite universities, have made it clear that France wants to build academic bridges besides political difficulties. They offered Oxford to build a new campus in Paris with French legal status and access to EU funding.

    Another important element of the British success story have been EU students and staff members. More than 15% of teaching and research staff at British universities are EU nationals.

    This includes some of the most highly regarded scientists. Especially the mathematics departments are staffed with a considerable number of academics from Eastern Europe who now feel that they are no longer welcome.

    The world class reputation of British elite research institutions, too, depends on maintaining excellence in particular fields of research such as nuclear fusion or atomic research and this excellence is, in turn, dependent on the input of students and researchers coming from countries such as Hungary, Poland and Romania.

    Accordingly, triggering Article 50 this March could lead to a gold-rush mood at European universities on the continent.

    UK institutions expect German universities, ranking second in the European league table, to be poaching UK-based staff soon.

    The rest of the world do not have to get better in scientific research, USA will just drop by. EU with UK will overtake the lead from USA in three years. With Brexit the EU research grants and researchers will leave UK and EU(exUK)’s performance will be better than that indicated.

    EventYr Defender Challenger
    2021.30 USA, EU
    2028.78 USA, EU(exUk)
    2022.38 USA, BRICS
    2024.06 USA, China
    2037.21 USA, Germany
    2037.08 USA, UK

    All 5 BRICS countries had positive increaments, the same cannot be said about the western countries but at these rates it might take India and Russia a long time to overtake EU.

    EventYr Defender Challenger
    2019.14 EU(exUk), BRICS
    2021.49 EU(exUk), China
    2147.66 EU(exUk), Japan
    2055.45 EU(exUk), India
    2059.96 EU(exUk), Russia

    The WFC index does not take into consideration of the research outputs of Engineering and Computer Science. USNew already considered China has the top Engineering and Computer Science courses, and three out of top 10 courses in each category,

    https://www.usnews.com/education/best-global-universities/computer-science

    https://www.usnews.com/education/best-global-universities/engineering

    Various ranking systems tend to favour the home universities. Taking the more neutral ranking from CWUR which is based in UAE, even though most of the elites there tended to be graduates from UK or USA universities,

    http://cwur.org/2017/subjects.php#Computer%20Science,%20Artificial%20Intelligence

    COMPUTER SCIENCE, ARTIFICIAL INTELLIGENCE
    World Rank Institution Score
    1 [Singapore] Nanyang Technological University 100.00
    2 [Hong Kong] Hong Kong Polytechnic University 99.23
    3 [Hong Kong] City University of Hong Kong 96.74
    4 [China] Tsinghua University 95.65
    5 [Singapore] National University of Singapore 93.76
    6 [Taiwan] National Taiwan University of Science and Technology 92.10
    7 [Taiwan] National Cheng Kung University 91.20
    8 [China] Shanghai Jiao Tong University 89.92
    9 [Taiwan] National Chiao Tung University 89.44
    10 [China] Harbin Institute of Technology 89.31

    COMPUTER SCIENCE, HARDWARE & ARCHITECTURE
    World Rank Institution Score
    1 [China] Tsinghua University 100.00
    2 [Singapore] Nanyang Technological University 96.66
    3 [USA] Purdue University 93.44
    4 [Canada] University of Waterloo 93.34
    5 [USA] Georgia Institute of Technology 91.95
    6 [USA] Massachusetts Institute of Technology 89.14
    7 [Taiwan] National Chiao Tung University 88.65
    8 [South Korea] KAIST 88.01
    9 [Hong Kong] Hong Kong University of Science and Technology 87.75
    10 [USA] Princeton University 87.22

    COMPUTER SCIENCE, SOFTWARE ENGINEERING
    World Rank Institution Score
    1 [USA] Stanford University 100.00
    2 [USA] Massachusetts Institute of Technology 99.85
    3 [China] Tsinghua University 99.59
    4 [Switzerland] Swiss Federal Institute of Technology in Zurich 99.02
    5 [China] Zhejiang University 98.86
    6 [USA] Carnegie Mellon University 97.05
    7 [Singapore] Nanyang Technological University 95.89
    8 [USA] Georgia Institute of Technology 95.56
    9 [USA] University of California, Berkeley 94.56
    10 [Canada] University of British Columbia 92.98

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    • Agree: Kimppis
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  180. @AP

    Agreed that scenario #1 is the likeliest. That said, though, in such a scenario, couldn’t Muslim, Africans, and White European liberals ally to bring in even more Muslims and Africans to Western Europe so that they would form a majority of the total population there?
     
    Possible but unlikely. We already have European opinions turning against more immigration. Also, immigrants once established won't all want to see the country eroded and their own living standards drop or stagnate. There will be probably be enough of those, plus natives, to prevent this.

    Also, is Western Europe going to remain as progressive on social issues such as women’s rights and same-sex marriage with so many Muslims and Africans there?
     
    I suspect it will for Europeans, but the Europeans will provide broad leeway for the newcomers to do what they want in their own communities, for the sake of peace, and may even surrender in public places (gays may not dare kiss each other on Paris streets anymore; women may "choose" to cover themselves on such streets also). I suspect France won't be so brave with a Burka ban if the % of Muslims is twice what it is now and if such a ban makes them angry.

    The alliance between foreign migrants and ‘white liberals’, as XYZ mentions, is what it’s all about. Call it population replacement or bioleninism or whatever, this is exactly how it was designed. They don’t really have to like muslims, or Africans or have any desire to live with them, but they need them to have their policies and preference imposed on the white mass they seek to crush and repress.

    And the same dynamic is true in the US. Also your models are a bit too rough imo because you should look at the age tranches: what is the racial composition for people under 18? For people between 18-40 that are typically supposed to drive economic growth as they start families and have a high need for mortgages and consumption.

    I suppose as a teenager living in a country where you no longer comprise a majority (white youths in the US from now on) you may already feel displaced and have an identitarian/tribal reaction. But maybe high segregation, poz and propaganda offset that. It does seem to me though some of the right-wing youth that emerged and became famous these last few years are the product of precisely this.

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  181. Mitleser says:
    @Mr. XYZ
    What about later U.S. politicians? After all, your quotes only extend to 1823.

    What about later U.S. politicians?

    Later ones did not talk about it.
    They realized it.

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  182. @Mr. XYZ
    Very interesting! Thanks.

    Anyway, is Georgia rapidly growing exclusively due to Blacks, Hispanics, and Asians? Or are a lot of White people also moving to Georgia?

    Actually both minorities and whites are growing in Georgia, but a disproportionately large amount of growth is due to blacks moving in from the failed ghettos of the North specifically. Blacks are attracted to Georgia like a magnet ever since the rap/hip hop industry wholesale moved to Atlanta; this, along with the stranglehold they have on city politics and Fulton and DeKalb county politics, and the presence of an existing black old money elite, gives blacks an outsized cultural and economic influence here. The film industry is rapidly growing too, and that attracts some blacks. This is the “black mecca” of the United States after all; Atlanta to Black America is like what Moscow is to Russia.

    The whites that move here are mostly liberal white collar professionals from the North to chase the vast amount of bugmen jobs here, which have proliferated in the last 10 or so years. For example, Atlanta has the second highest concentration of lawyers in the US after Chicago. Not to mention global headquarters for Coca Cola, NCR, Delta Air Lines, and fake news CNN as some examples. Likewise, these jobs also attract the Asian, majority Indian in the case of Atlanta, cognitive elite.

    The election of Stacey Abrams, a liberal black woman, as the Democrat governor candidate of Georgia shows you where the demographics of Georgia is tipping towards. Whites are growing quite a bit slower than minorities and hence are becoming a minority in Georgia as a whole and hover right around the 40% mark in Greater Atlanta, slightly less than the black population. To be precise as of 2017 according to the US gov, Georgia is 52.8% white and 32.2% black.

    Overall, Atlanta is still a whiter city than Los Angeles, Houston, but that’s really not saying much. Economically its going gangbusters right now (the amount of cranes and brand new skyscrapers and condos in Midtown and Buckhead can prove this), but the structural infrastructure and demographic problems render this city unsustainable in the long run.

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  183. Mitleser says:
    @German_reader

    and CSU/CDU are forced to become harsher as well.
     
    There's no sign of that happening so far, in fact many senior figures in the CDU actually seem to be doubling down on the open borders programme. It seems to me they reckon the right will be stuck at 15-20% anyway, and they can permanently govern against that.
    If Italy indicates anything, it's that the old parties need to be crushed and replaced, there's no point to hoping that they'll come to their senses and reform.

    CDU relies on German baby boomer voters who will keep voting for them.
    Not much improvement until these citizens die out.

    https://twitter.com/EuropeElects/status/1022523896547954690

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  184. @AquariusAnon
    This is mostly true. I don't see Chinese immigrating in large numbers to Russia, at least in the sense of lebrensraum. The only non-Asian country susceptible to the "yellow peril" is Australia and perhaps parts of Canada, more specifically Vancouver.

    Demographically I see Australia specifically stabilizing around 50% white, 35% Chinese, and 15% other. Canada will on the other hand have similar demographics, but substitute Chinese for South Asian, with higher weight to "other" since Greater Vancouver is set to have a Chinese plurality if not majority.

    Russia will be largely spared of mass Chinese immigration. However, if Russia continues to stagnate, China continues to grow in power albeit even if more slowly, and US sanctions against Russia amount to a full embargo (all 3 situations looking highly, highly likely at this point), then the Belt and Road will eventually give Russia a quasi, more subtle Golden Horde 2.0 type situation.

    Chinese won't be living in masses in Russia, but the economy will largely be Chinese oriented with strategic Chinese investments Chinese-ran and Chinese-staffed, and to protect trade, even a permanent PLA military base or 2 on Russian soil. A multi-vectored independent Russia as desired by the Russian elite will probably not happen, with Russia relegated to being a junior partner/vassal state of China. China won't be actually controlling Russia politically, but a Chinese economic stranglehold on Russia will mean less freedom in Russian geopolitical maneuvering. Relations will be similar to current US-Japan relation or where China-Pakistan relations are clearly headed.

    I predict around and no more than 1 million Chinese to live in Russia in such a situation with maybe 1/2 in European Russia, 1/3 in the Far East and the rest in Siberia, along with 10,000-50,000 PLA soldiers. On the ground, I expect not too much to happen: The SWPL-oriented places that won't survive the upcoming embargo will probably eventually re-open years later as Chinese oriented/operated establishments, whether for tourists or businessmen/workers, but a majority of SWPL places will probably survive and continue to cater towards upper middle class Russians. Chinese language signs will probably be ubiquitous not just in Sheremetyevo Airport, but in the entire city as a whole, with translations for all street signs and informational signs.

    Once Russia ends up as a quasi Chinese tributary state in such a situation, Poland will probably really take off. It will still be 99% white, and as the first stop in Europe for the new Silk Route, it will profit immensely with Warsaw being a massive trade and logistics hub, on top of even becoming a tech hub.

    How would Russia’s stagnation cause the country to become a “tributary state”?
    Why would Russia need Chinese bases on its territory?
    How is Poland supposed to benefit from China’s Silk Route when Russia is under a full Western embargo? The sad truth is that conflict between Russia and West transforms Poland (and much of the rest of Eastern Europe) into a permanent dead end.

    You are a good Russophobic troll, but your views do not make a whole lot of sense.

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    • Replies: @AquariusAnon
    Look I'm not a Russophobe. I actually visited Moscow and love it, especially the center; I fully intend on returning as long as geopolitical and/or economic circumstances don't spiral to the point of ruling it out. Its the last white-dominated megacity and the new reconstructions make it look very first world. I'm definitely highly opposed to poor Russian-Western ties. I'm just hypothesizing what a more aggressive expansionist China needing/wanting strong ties to Europe would do to an embargoed Russia.

    The current lively atmosphere in the areas surrounding Red Square would become much more somber once an embargo kicks in. Last thing I want is for Moscow to resemble the street-level vibe of the Soviet era all over again, which without China is the likely outcome of embargo. If Russia gets plunged into austerity, Ukraine getting forever bogged down by rampant svidomy, and Western Europe approaching 25% nonwhite as a whole, all of Europe will suffer.

    Now with China in the picture, China isn't getting embargoed by the West, and they want a non-maritime trade route to Europe. Large scale investments in Russia, and a stable pro-China Russia is THE anchor for this to actually happen. With Russia stagnating and cut off from Western FDI, Russia will easily approve of and rely on Chinese FDI or else austerity isolationism Mao-style is the only other option. There will also be significant Japanese/Korean FDI too, but this will generally follow and take a back seat to Chinese FDI.

    But most of Chinese FDI will be conditional. Once China invests hardcore in Russia, it might want to fully secure its trade route via military bases, and to oversee its investments by its own people for purposes of quality control and to prevent espionage. Once China gets powerful enough, and Russia-West relations get even more toxic and Russia falls further behind, a Chinese military base might not be an awful idea to protect against NATO which is right on its border, the same way countries like Japan and South Korea accept US bases.

    Of course, once your country's FDI is largely Chinese and most of your exports (oil/gas and some military tech) is to China, of course you gotta become their tributary. And this applies if we replace China by America. If the neoliberal plan of having American firms employ most of Russians, and Russia hosting a US air force base, and most Russian gas gets exported to America, I'd call Russia an American vassal state too.

    Likewise, I'm also against toxic China-Russia relations as places like Vladivostok will have to revert to being a backwater military town, plus Russia won't have the firepower to overcome China, and being shut off from the Chinese market is a horrible idea.

    Poland will profit from good China-Europe ties as a whole because they're the first European stop on the Silk Road, as an important east-west trade/transit hub. Bad Russia-Western relations is irrelevant for China-Europe trade, and only they'll maybe lose some profit in the lost Russian-Western trade. But European Russia IS Europe, so no need to have transit/distributor hubs like Poland. China is too far from Europe and a centralized hub in the middle is needed. On top of that, Poland and China historically enjoy strong relations and the ports in Trojmiasto was highly important for China-Europe trade during the Communist days.

    P.S. the Chinese tourists in Russia low quality and massive in numbers, mostly busloads of 60 year old aunties on budget tours with Sovok sights as the staples. Russia needs to replace at least half of these Chinese tour guide-led buses with Koreans and high end, small group Chinese tourists.
    , @Sean
    Relative to China, all countries are going to stagnate. The only country that is going to become less dependent on other countries is China.
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  185. @Anatoly Karlin
    Assuming no disruptive singularities/biosingularities:

    * Most far gone W. Europe countries become like Lebanon, others converge to where France is now. But no Eurabia anywhere, ever, because native breeders will make their inevitable resurgence. (Fertility preferences are heritable, and breeding genes are ultracompetitive. France has been selecting against low fertility preferences for almost two centuries now).

    But no Eurabia anywhere, ever, because native breeders will make their inevitable resurgence. (Fertility preferences are heritable, and breeding genes are ultracompetitive. France has been selecting against low fertility preferences for almost two centuries now).

    Is there any actual evidence to support this theory? You genes may influence your ideal, desirable number of children, but your still have control over your reproductive decisions. Those are heavily influenced by the prevailing culture.

    Anyway, the French may not have enough time for this selection process to complete. Their native TFR is allegedly 1.4, which is on the low end of modern societies.

    https://www.washingtontimes.com/news/2017/sep/26/muslim-majority-in-france-projected-in-40-years/

    Here is another demographic black pill for you:

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    • Replies: @Mitleser
    Did they move to South Dakota?

    https://farm2.staticflickr.com/1819/43195378384_2958a8d804_o.png
    , @Sean
    The Muslim TFR in Europe as a whole is alleged to be 2.1.
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  186. Mitleser says:
    @Felix Keverich

    But no Eurabia anywhere, ever, because native breeders will make their inevitable resurgence. (Fertility preferences are heritable, and breeding genes are ultracompetitive. France has been selecting against low fertility preferences for almost two centuries now).
     
    Is there any actual evidence to support this theory? You genes may influence your ideal, desirable number of children, but your still have control over your reproductive decisions. Those are heavily influenced by the prevailing culture.

    Anyway, the French may not have enough time for this selection process to complete. Their native TFR is allegedly 1.4, which is on the low end of modern societies.

    https://www.washingtontimes.com/news/2017/sep/26/muslim-majority-in-france-projected-in-40-years/

    Here is another demographic black pill for you:

    https://twitter.com/Cicerone973/status/1026956574156304384

    Did they move to South Dakota?

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    • Replies: @g2k
    Who would've thought that income and cost of living affect fertility more than magic pants.
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  187. Talha says:
    @Mr. XYZ
    Interesting point about Black societies.

    What is interesting, though, is that in spite of Muslim opposition to homosexuality, some Muslims do engage in homosexual acts even in heavily homophobic Muslim countries. For instance, take a look at the dancing boys (bacha bazi) in Afghanistan.

    in spite of Muslim opposition to homosexuality, some Muslims do engage in homosexual acts even in heavily homophobic Muslim countries

    No contradiction here; religion is supposed to help keep certain deviations in check in a society otherwise you get stuff like this:

    Peace.

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  188. Sean says:
    @Felix Keverich

    But no Eurabia anywhere, ever, because native breeders will make their inevitable resurgence. (Fertility preferences are heritable, and breeding genes are ultracompetitive. France has been selecting against low fertility preferences for almost two centuries now).
     
    Is there any actual evidence to support this theory? You genes may influence your ideal, desirable number of children, but your still have control over your reproductive decisions. Those are heavily influenced by the prevailing culture.

    Anyway, the French may not have enough time for this selection process to complete. Their native TFR is allegedly 1.4, which is on the low end of modern societies.

    https://www.washingtontimes.com/news/2017/sep/26/muslim-majority-in-france-projected-in-40-years/

    Here is another demographic black pill for you:

    https://twitter.com/Cicerone973/status/1026956574156304384

    The Muslim TFR in Europe as a whole is alleged to be 2.1.

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    • Replies: @Felix Keverich
    I heard in Europe it's considered racist and against the law to even talk about Muslim TFR. Doubtful, that they have reliable statistics on the subject, but it has to be substantially above the native European fertility.
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  189. JL says:
    @Hellerick

    The siloviks [...] still live in the world of the 1970s where China is a Third World dump and unworthy of serious attention.
     
    Doubtful claim. I don't know any Russian who would't be aware that China is a powerful and advanced nation extremely important to Russia.

    Do you know any Russian siloviki? We’re talking about cops, soldiers, officers, intelligence agents, etc. These are people you really have to live in Russia to know. This is not even to mention the liberasts, for whom the sun always rises and sets in the US, and don’t take China seriously at all.

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  190. Kimppis says:
    @Felix Keverich
    I'm not an expert on this issue, I just know that they keep bying Russian engines. Hundreds of them in fact. Chinese wouldn't be doing this if they could produce a reliable domestic engine.

    Chinese submarine force is vastly inferior to Russia's, and this is something they won't be able to rectify through copy-cat engineering, because we won't sell them a nuclear submarine. There are other issues with the Chinese military that cannot be fixed within a 10 year timeline. As a Russian, I see no reason to fear them yet.

    They still import Chinese engines, that is correct. However, as I said, their heavier 4th gen fighters are already equipped with domestic engines, so they aren’t that far behind.

    Regarding submarines, that’s not entirely true either. In fact, quite far from it. Their diesel sub tech is probably comparable to that of Russia and they already have around 40 modern SSKs (compared to Russia’s 20, at most).

    The biggest gap is probably in nuclear subs, but it seems to be exaggerated as well. AFAIK, the reports that the Chinese SSNs are noisy are seemingly still based on reports from the 90s. Nowadays they have several improved variants of the Type 093 in service and those should already be quite decent. The upcoming Type 096s might already be largely competitive.

    Looking at Russia’s shipbuilding industry and its building speeds, I really don’t think it’s too far-fetched to think that China could more or less catch up within a decade. 10 years from now on, Russia’s (or even US’) fleet will still mostly consist of upgraded Cold War-era boats (which will of course still be capable, but anyway).

    Check out where China’s surface fleet was 10 years ago and look at it now (or rather, in 2020-22). The Type 052C/D turned out to be the first destroyers that the Chinese were satisfied with and they started churning them out in large numbers. Those Type 096s could be the same for nuclear subs.

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    • Agree: reiner Tor
    • Replies: @reiner Tor
    The Chinese seem to be able to mass produce anything quickly (and even training large number of troops is something not beyond their abilities), the difficulty is getting the ability to design and build the prototypes of high tech weapons systems. Once they are there (and they are getting there fast), they will quickly mass produce a huge arsenal of it and train the troops to operate them. And they are already very close. They will have a fully operational modern carrier by the mid-20s (and two others, one with a Soviet built hull and another based on that, albeit both probably more modern than the Kuznetsov - maybe the Kuznetsov will be close to them after its current refit? I doubt it could be better than the Chinese ones) and probably a large carrier fleet sometime in the 2030s. I don’t know if they are planning to build up their nuclear forces (they certainly have the plutonium for a much larger arsenal, and they could easily produce more plutonium either), but otherwise probably their military will be fully competitive with the American one by then. The Russian military will be a distinct third in that race.
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  191. @Felix Keverich
    How would Russia's stagnation cause the country to become a "tributary state"?
    Why would Russia need Chinese bases on its territory?
    How is Poland supposed to benefit from China's Silk Route when Russia is under a full Western embargo? The sad truth is that conflict between Russia and West transforms Poland (and much of the rest of Eastern Europe) into a permanent dead end.

    You are a good Russophobic troll, but your views do not make a whole lot of sense.

    Look I’m not a Russophobe. I actually visited Moscow and love it, especially the center; I fully intend on returning as long as geopolitical and/or economic circumstances don’t spiral to the point of ruling it out. Its the last white-dominated megacity and the new reconstructions make it look very first world. I’m definitely highly opposed to poor Russian-Western ties. I’m just hypothesizing what a more aggressive expansionist China needing/wanting strong ties to Europe would do to an embargoed Russia.

    The current lively atmosphere in the areas surrounding Red Square would become much more somber once an embargo kicks in. Last thing I want is for Moscow to resemble the street-level vibe of the Soviet era all over again, which without China is the likely outcome of embargo. If Russia gets plunged into austerity, Ukraine getting forever bogged down by rampant svidomy, and Western Europe approaching 25% nonwhite as a whole, all of Europe will suffer.

    Now with China in the picture, China isn’t getting embargoed by the West, and they want a non-maritime trade route to Europe. Large scale investments in Russia, and a stable pro-China Russia is THE anchor for this to actually happen. With Russia stagnating and cut off from Western FDI, Russia will easily approve of and rely on Chinese FDI or else austerity isolationism Mao-style is the only other option. There will also be significant Japanese/Korean FDI too, but this will generally follow and take a back seat to Chinese FDI.

    But most of Chinese FDI will be conditional. Once China invests hardcore in Russia, it might want to fully secure its trade route via military bases, and to oversee its investments by its own people for purposes of quality control and to prevent espionage. Once China gets powerful enough, and Russia-West relations get even more toxic and Russia falls further behind, a Chinese military base might not be an awful idea to protect against NATO which is right on its border, the same way countries like Japan and South Korea accept US bases.

    Of course, once your country’s FDI is largely Chinese and most of your exports (oil/gas and some military tech) is to China, of course you gotta become their tributary. And this applies if we replace China by America. If the neoliberal plan of having American firms employ most of Russians, and Russia hosting a US air force base, and most Russian gas gets exported to America, I’d call Russia an American vassal state too.

    Likewise, I’m also against toxic China-Russia relations as places like Vladivostok will have to revert to being a backwater military town, plus Russia won’t have the firepower to overcome China, and being shut off from the Chinese market is a horrible idea.

    Poland will profit from good China-Europe ties as a whole because they’re the first European stop on the Silk Road, as an important east-west trade/transit hub. Bad Russia-Western relations is irrelevant for China-Europe trade, and only they’ll maybe lose some profit in the lost Russian-Western trade. But European Russia IS Europe, so no need to have transit/distributor hubs like Poland. China is too far from Europe and a centralized hub in the middle is needed. On top of that, Poland and China historically enjoy strong relations and the ports in Trojmiasto was highly important for China-Europe trade during the Communist days.

    P.S. the Chinese tourists in Russia low quality and massive in numbers, mostly busloads of 60 year old aunties on budget tours with Sovok sights as the staples. Russia needs to replace at least half of these Chinese tour guide-led buses with Koreans and high end, small group Chinese tourists.

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    • Replies: @Felix Keverich
    You continue to make zero sense: how is Poland a " first European stop on the Silk Road" with a big, beautiful Iron Curtain on its Eastern border? :)

    In the scenario you describe Chinese would have no choice, but to end their Silk Road in Russia. They could try routing it via Turkey, bypassing conflict-ridden Eastern Europe altogether, but then Iran's isolation will present another major problem for the Chinese.


    China is too far from Europe and a centralized hub in the middle is needed.
     
    But why in the world would they build it in Poland? Did you look at the map? Poland is not "in the middle" of Europe, it is right on the fringes of it and virtually land-locked.
    , @Mitleser

    With Russia stagnating and cut off from Western FDI, Russia will easily approve of and rely on Chinese FDI or else austerity isolationism Mao-style is the only other option.
     
    The other options is to reduce capital flight into the West and invest more in the country.
    Russia's debt is low and the balance of trade is positive.

    RBut most of Chinese FDI will be conditional. Once China invests hardcore in Russia, it might want to fully secure its trade route via military bases, and to oversee its investments by its own people for purposes of quality control and to prevent espionage. Once China gets powerful enough, and Russia-West relations get even more toxic and Russia falls further behind, a Chinese military base might not be an awful idea to protect against NATO which is right on its border, the same way countries like Japan and South Korea accept US bases.
     
    JP and SK acccept American bases because they were occupied by America after the Pacific War and later wanted deterrence against USSR, PRC and DPRK. Russia's deterrence is the Russian nuclear arsenal.
    And the rest of the Russian security forces can secure trade routes without any Chinese bases.

    Of course, once your country’s FDI is largely Chinese and most of your exports (oil/gas and some military tech) is to China, of course you gotta become their tributary.
     
    Russian exports to EUrope are still more than four times as large as Russian exports to China.
    "CEO of TechnoNICOL, a Russian maker of construction materials, which is trying to launch production in the Russian Far East,says it is still much easier to export to EU than to China due to lower tariffs and better cross-border transport infrastructure."
    https://twitter.com/ArtyomLukin/status/1021687354673836032
    , @Jon0815

    The current lively atmosphere in the areas surrounding Red Square would become much more somber once an embargo kicks in
     
    Russia doesn't do much trade with the USA and could weather a full US embargo (still unlikely) without much difficulty. A full Western embargo would be a big problem, but that isn't going to happen.
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  192. @Sean
    The Muslim TFR in Europe as a whole is alleged to be 2.1.

    I heard in Europe it’s considered racist and against the law to even talk about Muslim TFR. Doubtful, that they have reliable statistics on the subject, but it has to be substantially above the native European fertility.

    Read More
    • Replies: @Sean
    No official figures by race are collected in France. There is appreciable emigration from France (and Britain) by the attainment--orientated indigenous. Emigration of the most valuable indigenous families is a thing that is too rarely brought up when future demographics are discussed in relation to economic and political forecasts. The Rivers Of Blood speech concerned indigenous emigration:

    Powell recounted a conversation with one of his constituents, a middle-aged working man, a few weeks earlier. Powell said that the man told him: "If I had the money to go, I wouldn't stay in this country... I have three children, all of them been through grammar school and two of them married now, with family. I shan't be satisfied till I have seen them all settled overseas."
     
    A common theme by those articulating the business point of view for the future of the West is that the best elements from all over the world will come and be assimilated (with the unspoken strategy that the resultant population will not vote for Right wing parties). However, the traditional support of proletarian parties is disproportionately affected by emigration. Frank Field noted in a BBC documentary that whole families of staunch indigenous Labour supporters were leaving Britain because their areas were being transformed, as leaving takes money those are the people the country can ill afford to lose (Guardian:Why is Frank Field still an MP for the Labour party?).

    An analysis of Nazi planning documents from Architects of Annihilation: Auschwitz and the Logic of DestructionBy Gotz Aly, Susanne Heim.

    And enthroned above them was the select category of 'genetically high grade' persons. To qualify for this privileged status it was necessary for the 'majority of family members' to demonstrate a history of 'work achievement and upward social mobility' - rather than exhibiting any outwardly 'Germanic' characteristics. [...] 'The racial selection of Letts ... must not be based on one sided anthropological considerations ... a selection based on the achievement principle must be carried out'.
     
    The 'racial' criteria boiled down in practice to whether people were economically valuable . And I suppose some of the opposition to closing borders against economic migrants is motivated by a desire to get the most economically valuable people (who are the ones best able to leave their country) to legally come to the West. But they forget they'll lose a lot of the indigenous people who keep society and politics running smoothly. That is economists' projections for you: depend on certain assumptions, and not at all robust.

    https://www.bloomberg.com/view/articles/2017-11-10/putin-s-trolling-of-the-west-is-not-just-a-tactic
    It's tempting to describe everything he had done since the 2014 Crimea invasion as a series of reactive, opportunistic, ultimately mistaken moves. He grabbed Crimea because he could; instigated a war of secession in eastern Ukraine because it was easy; went into Syria because there was a vacuum there; ran propaganda and "active measures" campaigns in the U.K., the U.S. and other Western nations because they were unprepared for it... He influenced people and outcomes but didn't gain any friends -- in fact, he appeared to make enemies at every step.

    That, unfortunately, is likely Putin's third long game. He doesn't believe there's any upside to cooperating with the West. The evolution of Putin's views is irreversible, and Russia's capacity to take pain is constantly underestimated. Putin clearly believes it's higher than his Western adversaries think, and it's not clear at this point who's right.
     
    I think this is Rope-a-dope of the West (seen as overheating, and crisis-bound). There is support in Putin's own writing for this view.

    IN Nezavisimaia Gazeta on January 23, 2012, Putin, ... presented integration among states as a matter of virtue rather than achievement. The rule of law was not a universal aspiration, but part of an alien Western civilization... In Moskovskie Novosti on February 27, 2012, Putin drew the political conclusions. Putin predicted that Eurasia would overcome the European Union and bring its members into a larger entity that would extend “from Lisbon to Vladivostok.”
     
    If Russia is looking for great power allies in the medium tern India might be ideal; they could complement each other strategically and economically. Ultimately, China is going to frighten a lot of countries into banding together.
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  193. Sean says:
    @Felix Keverich
    How would Russia's stagnation cause the country to become a "tributary state"?
    Why would Russia need Chinese bases on its territory?
    How is Poland supposed to benefit from China's Silk Route when Russia is under a full Western embargo? The sad truth is that conflict between Russia and West transforms Poland (and much of the rest of Eastern Europe) into a permanent dead end.

    You are a good Russophobic troll, but your views do not make a whole lot of sense.

    Relative to China, all countries are going to stagnate. The only country that is going to become less dependent on other countries is China.

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    • Replies: @Felix Keverich
    "Stagnation" is a trope, frequently applied to Putin's Russia. In reality it's closer to 2% annual GDP growth. Against the backdrop of a declining population, it means that living standards will actually improve.

    There will no public pressure on the government to radically change its foreign or domestic policies. There will be certainly no popular or elite support for selling the country to the Chinese. It's just another Russophobic trope.
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  194. @AquariusAnon
    Look I'm not a Russophobe. I actually visited Moscow and love it, especially the center; I fully intend on returning as long as geopolitical and/or economic circumstances don't spiral to the point of ruling it out. Its the last white-dominated megacity and the new reconstructions make it look very first world. I'm definitely highly opposed to poor Russian-Western ties. I'm just hypothesizing what a more aggressive expansionist China needing/wanting strong ties to Europe would do to an embargoed Russia.

    The current lively atmosphere in the areas surrounding Red Square would become much more somber once an embargo kicks in. Last thing I want is for Moscow to resemble the street-level vibe of the Soviet era all over again, which without China is the likely outcome of embargo. If Russia gets plunged into austerity, Ukraine getting forever bogged down by rampant svidomy, and Western Europe approaching 25% nonwhite as a whole, all of Europe will suffer.

    Now with China in the picture, China isn't getting embargoed by the West, and they want a non-maritime trade route to Europe. Large scale investments in Russia, and a stable pro-China Russia is THE anchor for this to actually happen. With Russia stagnating and cut off from Western FDI, Russia will easily approve of and rely on Chinese FDI or else austerity isolationism Mao-style is the only other option. There will also be significant Japanese/Korean FDI too, but this will generally follow and take a back seat to Chinese FDI.

    But most of Chinese FDI will be conditional. Once China invests hardcore in Russia, it might want to fully secure its trade route via military bases, and to oversee its investments by its own people for purposes of quality control and to prevent espionage. Once China gets powerful enough, and Russia-West relations get even more toxic and Russia falls further behind, a Chinese military base might not be an awful idea to protect against NATO which is right on its border, the same way countries like Japan and South Korea accept US bases.

    Of course, once your country's FDI is largely Chinese and most of your exports (oil/gas and some military tech) is to China, of course you gotta become their tributary. And this applies if we replace China by America. If the neoliberal plan of having American firms employ most of Russians, and Russia hosting a US air force base, and most Russian gas gets exported to America, I'd call Russia an American vassal state too.

    Likewise, I'm also against toxic China-Russia relations as places like Vladivostok will have to revert to being a backwater military town, plus Russia won't have the firepower to overcome China, and being shut off from the Chinese market is a horrible idea.

    Poland will profit from good China-Europe ties as a whole because they're the first European stop on the Silk Road, as an important east-west trade/transit hub. Bad Russia-Western relations is irrelevant for China-Europe trade, and only they'll maybe lose some profit in the lost Russian-Western trade. But European Russia IS Europe, so no need to have transit/distributor hubs like Poland. China is too far from Europe and a centralized hub in the middle is needed. On top of that, Poland and China historically enjoy strong relations and the ports in Trojmiasto was highly important for China-Europe trade during the Communist days.

    P.S. the Chinese tourists in Russia low quality and massive in numbers, mostly busloads of 60 year old aunties on budget tours with Sovok sights as the staples. Russia needs to replace at least half of these Chinese tour guide-led buses with Koreans and high end, small group Chinese tourists.

    You continue to make zero sense: how is Poland a ” first European stop on the Silk Road” with a big, beautiful Iron Curtain on its Eastern border? :)

    In the scenario you describe Chinese would have no choice, but to end their Silk Road in Russia. They could try routing it via Turkey, bypassing conflict-ridden Eastern Europe altogether, but then Iran’s isolation will present another major problem for the Chinese.

    China is too far from Europe and a centralized hub in the middle is needed.

    But why in the world would they build it in Poland? Did you look at the map? Poland is not “in the middle” of Europe, it is right on the fringes of it and virtually land-locked.

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    • Replies: @AquariusAnon
    First of all, the iron curtain between Russia and the EU (if it will even exist as anything more than a glorified free trade area as all of this fully kicks into gear) will be a lot more porous than the US-Russian iron curtain over the Atlantic, as the Iran relations have shown.

    Second of all, this iron curtain will be for EU-Russia trade, not EU-China trade. Since China will have good relations with both Russia and Poland, this iron curtain will be meaningless for China, as such a Silk Route will likely be China owned and thus almost seen as quasi-Chinese territory, even if it blatantly technically crosses the "iron curtain".

    The hub is for a place that's BETWEEN the heart of Europe and China, and if Russia gets embargoed, Poland will take this place. Poland will have the advantage of being in the EU while being closer to China than pretty much everyone else in the EU that's relevant. Granted, I'm not 100% sure whether the EU has an entity will survive in the long run, but the business-friendly institutions will likely be there in Poland.

    I'd rather want Russia to be in this role of course. Moscow is truly one of the flagship cities of this world, which Warsaw will never be able to replicate. If anything with London (and perhaps Paris too) hovering at 50% white, it might already be the flagship European megacity by now, just extremely underrated. All of this will be moot if the embargo gets a green light of course especially by the EU; this is why I'm vehemently opposed to Russophobic hysteria. Likewise, St. Petersburg is already on par with cities like Barcelona, just criminally underrated and will actually be equal in recognition and popularity if its able to successfully compete for the same European tourists that's already going in masses to Budapest/Prague.
    , @dux.ie
    > But why in the world would they build it in Poland? Did you look at the map? Poland is not “in the middle” of Europe, it is right on the fringes of it and virtually land-locked.

    From Forbes, new logistic hub on border of China, Horgos (China) / Khorgos (Kazakhstan)

    https://www.forbes.com/sites/wadeshepard/2016/09/20/7-new-cities-that-are-rising-along-the-new-silk-road/#5a0c1ba81300

    A colossal epicenter of trade and logistics is emerging in the Saryesik-Atyrau desert. Located right on border of China and Kazakhstan. Dozens of new China-Europe rail lines as well as the Western Europe-Western China Highway now pass through here.

     

    The end point hub into Europe before the more traditional European logistic routes, Terespol municipality, Poland.

    Europe, too, is building new cities along the New Silk Road. On the other side of the Central Asian gap another logistics economy is on the rise. Located right on the border of Belarus is Poland’s Terespol municipality -- a place of dry ports, free industrial zones, and residential developments that are materializing out of rolling green fields. Terespol municipality is the European compliment to Khorgos, and has likewise been sparked to life by the revitalized overland transportation routes that run through it -- which include most China-Europe trains as well as the E30 expressway, which goes from Berlin to Moscow. The major new projects here include the impending 30,000 person Kobylany New City, a 40 hectare duty free and bonded zone, a massive DHL-invested logistics zone, and a free industrial zone that is near a major road shipping hub, which are in addition to the dry port at Malaszewicze, which is among the most preeminent of the entire Silk Road network.

     

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  195. Nznz says: • Website
    @Rosie

    So a race-blind IQ nationalist would conclude that Europe is doing badly. But an ethnic nationalist would draw the opposite conclusion. If the goal is to create a homeland for white peoples, would you rather fight a large amount of highly intelligent people who, even if they might be drawn from a wide range of backgrounds, could be united in an anti-white front (as the left in the West has discovered) or would you fight a much more dull group of people who largely do not have access/influence over your institutions? Then the fight becomes primarily one within your in-group, which is preferable in the long run since if you can’t win your in-group then nothing else won’t matter anyway.
     
    I very much agree. The trouble with high IQ immigrants is that they assimilate, and that is the worst case scenario. Richard Spencer has said the same.

    Is it possible to steer the SJWs into attacking the IQ fetishists like Steve Sailer et al instead of the WNs at least in the meantime? My thoughts are that IQ fetishists, transhumanists, MRAs, and alt righters are not really WNs or even pro-white per se, but they are still despised by SJWs and liberals just the same, so it will be very useful to manipulate the anger of SJWs and liberals towards them instead, and to take some of the heat off the WNs, and I remember in a survey about how something like 40 or 35 percent of Stormfronts’ is female, i can safely say that that is multiple times higher than the female percentage among Unz review commenters. Like if Germany hates both France and Russia, can France make Germany go after Russia first while france uses that chance to fortify its border and buy time?

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  196. Mitleser says:
    @AquariusAnon
    Look I'm not a Russophobe. I actually visited Moscow and love it, especially the center; I fully intend on returning as long as geopolitical and/or economic circumstances don't spiral to the point of ruling it out. Its the last white-dominated megacity and the new reconstructions make it look very first world. I'm definitely highly opposed to poor Russian-Western ties. I'm just hypothesizing what a more aggressive expansionist China needing/wanting strong ties to Europe would do to an embargoed Russia.

    The current lively atmosphere in the areas surrounding Red Square would become much more somber once an embargo kicks in. Last thing I want is for Moscow to resemble the street-level vibe of the Soviet era all over again, which without China is the likely outcome of embargo. If Russia gets plunged into austerity, Ukraine getting forever bogged down by rampant svidomy, and Western Europe approaching 25% nonwhite as a whole, all of Europe will suffer.

    Now with China in the picture, China isn't getting embargoed by the West, and they want a non-maritime trade route to Europe. Large scale investments in Russia, and a stable pro-China Russia is THE anchor for this to actually happen. With Russia stagnating and cut off from Western FDI, Russia will easily approve of and rely on Chinese FDI or else austerity isolationism Mao-style is the only other option. There will also be significant Japanese/Korean FDI too, but this will generally follow and take a back seat to Chinese FDI.

    But most of Chinese FDI will be conditional. Once China invests hardcore in Russia, it might want to fully secure its trade route via military bases, and to oversee its investments by its own people for purposes of quality control and to prevent espionage. Once China gets powerful enough, and Russia-West relations get even more toxic and Russia falls further behind, a Chinese military base might not be an awful idea to protect against NATO which is right on its border, the same way countries like Japan and South Korea accept US bases.

    Of course, once your country's FDI is largely Chinese and most of your exports (oil/gas and some military tech) is to China, of course you gotta become their tributary. And this applies if we replace China by America. If the neoliberal plan of having American firms employ most of Russians, and Russia hosting a US air force base, and most Russian gas gets exported to America, I'd call Russia an American vassal state too.

    Likewise, I'm also against toxic China-Russia relations as places like Vladivostok will have to revert to being a backwater military town, plus Russia won't have the firepower to overcome China, and being shut off from the Chinese market is a horrible idea.

    Poland will profit from good China-Europe ties as a whole because they're the first European stop on the Silk Road, as an important east-west trade/transit hub. Bad Russia-Western relations is irrelevant for China-Europe trade, and only they'll maybe lose some profit in the lost Russian-Western trade. But European Russia IS Europe, so no need to have transit/distributor hubs like Poland. China is too far from Europe and a centralized hub in the middle is needed. On top of that, Poland and China historically enjoy strong relations and the ports in Trojmiasto was highly important for China-Europe trade during the Communist days.

    P.S. the Chinese tourists in Russia low quality and massive in numbers, mostly busloads of 60 year old aunties on budget tours with Sovok sights as the staples. Russia needs to replace at least half of these Chinese tour guide-led buses with Koreans and high end, small group Chinese tourists.

    With Russia stagnating and cut off from Western FDI, Russia will easily approve of and rely on Chinese FDI or else austerity isolationism Mao-style is the only other option.

    The other options is to reduce capital flight into the West and invest more in the country.
    Russia’s debt is low and the balance of trade is positive.

    RBut most of Chinese FDI will be conditional. Once China invests hardcore in Russia, it might want to fully secure its trade route via military bases, and to oversee its investments by its own people for purposes of quality control and to prevent espionage. Once China gets powerful enough, and Russia-West relations get even more toxic and Russia falls further behind, a Chinese military base might not be an awful idea to protect against NATO which is right on its border, the same way countries like Japan and South Korea accept US bases.

    JP and SK acccept American bases because they were occupied by America after the Pacific War and later wanted deterrence against USSR, PRC and DPRK. Russia’s deterrence is the Russian nuclear arsenal.
    And the rest of the Russian security forces can secure trade routes without any Chinese bases.

    Of course, once your country’s FDI is largely Chinese and most of your exports (oil/gas and some military tech) is to China, of course you gotta become their tributary.

    Russian exports to EUrope are still more than four times as large as Russian exports to China.
    “CEO of TechnoNICOL, a Russian maker of construction materials, which is trying to launch production in the Russian Far East,says it is still much easier to export to EU than to China due to lower tariffs and better cross-border transport infrastructure.”

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    • Replies: @Mitleser
    https://pbs.twimg.com/media/Dj0zMW8WwAAHGDn.jpg
    http://www.imf.org/en/Publications/CR/Issues/2018/07/25/Peoples-Republic-of-China-2018-Article-IV-Consultation-Press-Release-Staff-Report-Staff-46121
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  197. Nznz says: • Website

    I mean it can be very useful if the liberals can be made to go doxx and go after Daniel Chieh and Twinkle and Wizard of Oz instead of true pro-whites and WNs.

    Read More
    • Replies: @Hyperborean
    Such a friendly attitude. But that's not how purges tend to work. The Enemy makes few distinctions, you'll get purged right along with everyone else.
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  198. @Sean
    Relative to China, all countries are going to stagnate. The only country that is going to become less dependent on other countries is China.

    “Stagnation” is a trope, frequently applied to Putin’s Russia. In reality it’s closer to 2% annual GDP growth. Against the backdrop of a declining population, it means that living standards will actually improve.

    There will no public pressure on the government to radically change its foreign or domestic policies. There will be certainly no popular or elite support for selling the country to the Chinese. It’s just another Russophobic trope.

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  199. @Kimppis
    They still import Chinese engines, that is correct. However, as I said, their heavier 4th gen fighters are already equipped with domestic engines, so they aren't that far behind.

    Regarding submarines, that's not entirely true either. In fact, quite far from it. Their diesel sub tech is probably comparable to that of Russia and they already have around 40 modern SSKs (compared to Russia's 20, at most).

    The biggest gap is probably in nuclear subs, but it seems to be exaggerated as well. AFAIK, the reports that the Chinese SSNs are noisy are seemingly still based on reports from the 90s. Nowadays they have several improved variants of the Type 093 in service and those should already be quite decent. The upcoming Type 096s might already be largely competitive.

    Looking at Russia's shipbuilding industry and its building speeds, I really don't think it's too far-fetched to think that China could more or less catch up within a decade. 10 years from now on, Russia's (or even US') fleet will still mostly consist of upgraded Cold War-era boats (which will of course still be capable, but anyway).

    Check out where China's surface fleet was 10 years ago and look at it now (or rather, in 2020-22). The Type 052C/D turned out to be the first destroyers that the Chinese were satisfied with and they started churning them out in large numbers. Those Type 096s could be the same for nuclear subs.

    The Chinese seem to be able to mass produce anything quickly (and even training large number of troops is something not beyond their abilities), the difficulty is getting the ability to design and build the prototypes of high tech weapons systems. Once they are there (and they are getting there fast), they will quickly mass produce a huge arsenal of it and train the troops to operate them. And they are already very close. They will have a fully operational modern carrier by the mid-20s (and two others, one with a Soviet built hull and another based on that, albeit both probably more modern than the Kuznetsov – maybe the Kuznetsov will be close to them after its current refit? I doubt it could be better than the Chinese ones) and probably a large carrier fleet sometime in the 2030s. I don’t know if they are planning to build up their nuclear forces (they certainly have the plutonium for a much larger arsenal, and they could easily produce more plutonium either), but otherwise probably their military will be fully competitive with the American one by then. The Russian military will be a distinct third in that race.

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    • Replies: @Mitleser

    I don’t know if they are planning to build up their nuclear forces (they certainly have the plutonium for a much larger arsenal, and they could easily produce more plutonium either)
     
    The PRC's ability to build up their nuclear forces is smaller than you think.

    IPFM's new research report "China's Fissile Material Production and Stockpile" (PDF copy) by Hui Zhang uses information from newly available Chinese public sources to provide a more detailed and documented reconstruction of China's production of highly enriched uranium (HEU) and plutonium for nuclear weapons.

    The report provides new evidence to constrain the operating histories for China's Lanzhou and Heping gaseous diffusion enrichment plants. Lanzhou stopped HEU production for weapons in 1980 and shifted to making low enriched uranium (LEU) for civilian power reactors and possibly for naval reactors. It was shut down on 31 December 2000 and in 2017 was demolished. The Heping plant may still be operating but not producing HEU for weapons. China also has centrifuge enrichment plants but they are believed not to produce HEU for weapons.

    The new report also offers new details on the operational experience of the Jiuquan and Guangyuan weapon plutonium production reactors. China also used these reactors to produce tritium for weapons. The reactors were closed in the 1980s and have been undergoing decommissioning.

    Despite the end of HEU and plutonium production for weapons thirty years ago, China has made no official policy declaration formalizing this situation.

    The report offers an improved estimates of the amount of HEU and plutonium China has produced and of its current stockpiles. China's stockpile of weapon-grade HEU (assumed to be 90 percent uranium-235) is estimated to be about 14±3 metric tons, lower than the previous IPFM estimate. The stockpile of plutonium available for weapons is estimated to be about 2.9±0.6 tons, significantly larger than the previous IPFM estimate.
     
    http://fissilematerials.org/blog/2018/01/chinas_fissile_material_p.html
    , @Felix Keverich
    Call me a white supremascist, but I'm counting on racially inferior Mongoloids not being able to develop their own advanced military technology without a Soviet/American example for them to copy. Let's not forget that everything Chinese achieved thus far was only made possible by copying stuff white people made.

    Our naval expert Martyanov says that Chinese surface vessels lack serious firepower. Not really suitable for anything, but patrolling China's shores.
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  200. Mitleser says:
    @Mitleser

    With Russia stagnating and cut off from Western FDI, Russia will easily approve of and rely on Chinese FDI or else austerity isolationism Mao-style is the only other option.
     
    The other options is to reduce capital flight into the West and invest more in the country.
    Russia's debt is low and the balance of trade is positive.

    RBut most of Chinese FDI will be conditional. Once China invests hardcore in Russia, it might want to fully secure its trade route via military bases, and to oversee its investments by its own people for purposes of quality control and to prevent espionage. Once China gets powerful enough, and Russia-West relations get even more toxic and Russia falls further behind, a Chinese military base might not be an awful idea to protect against NATO which is right on its border, the same way countries like Japan and South Korea accept US bases.
     
    JP and SK acccept American bases because they were occupied by America after the Pacific War and later wanted deterrence against USSR, PRC and DPRK. Russia's deterrence is the Russian nuclear arsenal.
    And the rest of the Russian security forces can secure trade routes without any Chinese bases.

    Of course, once your country’s FDI is largely Chinese and most of your exports (oil/gas and some military tech) is to China, of course you gotta become their tributary.
     
    Russian exports to EUrope are still more than four times as large as Russian exports to China.
    "CEO of TechnoNICOL, a Russian maker of construction materials, which is trying to launch production in the Russian Far East,says it is still much easier to export to EU than to China due to lower tariffs and better cross-border transport infrastructure."
    https://twitter.com/ArtyomLukin/status/1021687354673836032
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  201. @Nznz
    I mean it can be very useful if the liberals can be made to go doxx and go after Daniel Chieh and Twinkle and Wizard of Oz instead of true pro-whites and WNs.

    Such a friendly attitude. But that’s not how purges tend to work. The Enemy makes few distinctions, you’ll get purged right along with everyone else.

    Read More
    • Replies: @Nznz
    Like how the Imperium of Man sucessfully diverted the Tyrannids into going after the Orks?
    , @Nznz
    Race mixees whatever their political persuasion deserve to be hit hard.
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  202. Nznz says: • Website
    @Hyperborean
    Such a friendly attitude. But that's not how purges tend to work. The Enemy makes few distinctions, you'll get purged right along with everyone else.

    Like how the Imperium of Man sucessfully diverted the Tyrannids into going after the Orks?

    Read More
    • Replies: @Daniel Chieh
    In that fictional example, it created superorks and tyranids.
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  203. Mitleser says:
    @reiner Tor
    The Chinese seem to be able to mass produce anything quickly (and even training large number of troops is something not beyond their abilities), the difficulty is getting the ability to design and build the prototypes of high tech weapons systems. Once they are there (and they are getting there fast), they will quickly mass produce a huge arsenal of it and train the troops to operate them. And they are already very close. They will have a fully operational modern carrier by the mid-20s (and two others, one with a Soviet built hull and another based on that, albeit both probably more modern than the Kuznetsov - maybe the Kuznetsov will be close to them after its current refit? I doubt it could be better than the Chinese ones) and probably a large carrier fleet sometime in the 2030s. I don’t know if they are planning to build up their nuclear forces (they certainly have the plutonium for a much larger arsenal, and they could easily produce more plutonium either), but otherwise probably their military will be fully competitive with the American one by then. The Russian military will be a distinct third in that race.

    I don’t know if they are planning to build up their nuclear forces (they certainly have the plutonium for a much larger arsenal, and they could easily produce more plutonium either)

    The PRC’s ability to build up their nuclear forces is smaller than you think.

    IPFM’s new research report “China’s Fissile Material Production and Stockpile” (PDF copy) by Hui Zhang uses information from newly available Chinese public sources to provide a more detailed and documented reconstruction of China’s production of highly enriched uranium (HEU) and plutonium for nuclear weapons.

    The report provides new evidence to constrain the operating histories for China’s Lanzhou and Heping gaseous diffusion enrichment plants. Lanzhou stopped HEU production for weapons in 1980 and shifted to making low enriched uranium (LEU) for civilian power reactors and possibly for naval reactors. It was shut down on 31 December 2000 and in 2017 was demolished. The Heping plant may still be operating but not producing HEU for weapons. China also has centrifuge enrichment plants but they are believed not to produce HEU for weapons.

    The new report also offers new details on the operational experience of the Jiuquan and Guangyuan weapon plutonium production reactors. China also used these reactors to produce tritium for weapons. The reactors were closed in the 1980s and have been undergoing decommissioning.

    Despite the end of HEU and plutonium production for weapons thirty years ago, China has made no official policy declaration formalizing this situation.

    The report offers an improved estimates of the amount of HEU and plutonium China has produced and of its current stockpiles. China’s stockpile of weapon-grade HEU (assumed to be 90 percent uranium-235) is estimated to be about 14±3 metric tons, lower than the previous IPFM estimate. The stockpile of plutonium available for weapons is estimated to be about 2.9±0.6 tons, significantly larger than the previous IPFM estimate.

    http://fissilematerials.org/blog/2018/01/chinas_fissile_material_p.html

    Read More
    • Replies: @reiner Tor

    The stockpile of plutonium available for weapons is estimated to be about 2.9±0.6 tons, significantly larger than the previous IPFM estimate.
     
    But is it not enough for maybe a thousand warheads or so? Okay, they’d need tritium, too. Anyway, they could easily build new plants to produce more plutonium. I’m sure it’s more a question of a political decision than anything else.

    For other nuclear powers (the UK, France, India, Pakistan, Israel, North Korea) it might be a question of budgetary constraints, but I don’t think it plays a role in China. Don’t forget that their military buildup in general was quite muted until recently.
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  204. Nznz says: • Website
    @Hyperborean
    Such a friendly attitude. But that's not how purges tend to work. The Enemy makes few distinctions, you'll get purged right along with everyone else.

    Race mixees whatever their political persuasion deserve to be hit hard.

    Read More
    • Replies: @Hyperborean
    Focus on getting power first.
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  205. @Nznz
    Race mixees whatever their political persuasion deserve to be hit hard.

    Focus on getting power first.

    Read More
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  206. @Felix Keverich
    You continue to make zero sense: how is Poland a " first European stop on the Silk Road" with a big, beautiful Iron Curtain on its Eastern border? :)

    In the scenario you describe Chinese would have no choice, but to end their Silk Road in Russia. They could try routing it via Turkey, bypassing conflict-ridden Eastern Europe altogether, but then Iran's isolation will present another major problem for the Chinese.


    China is too far from Europe and a centralized hub in the middle is needed.
     
    But why in the world would they build it in Poland? Did you look at the map? Poland is not "in the middle" of Europe, it is right on the fringes of it and virtually land-locked.

    First of all, the iron curtain between Russia and the EU (if it will even exist as anything more than a glorified free trade area as all of this fully kicks into gear) will be a lot more porous than the US-Russian iron curtain over the Atlantic, as the Iran relations have shown.

    Second of all, this iron curtain will be for EU-Russia trade, not EU-China trade. Since China will have good relations with both Russia and Poland, this iron curtain will be meaningless for China, as such a Silk Route will likely be China owned and thus almost seen as quasi-Chinese territory, even if it blatantly technically crosses the “iron curtain”.

    The hub is for a place that’s BETWEEN the heart of Europe and China, and if Russia gets embargoed, Poland will take this place. Poland will have the advantage of being in the EU while being closer to China than pretty much everyone else in the EU that’s relevant. Granted, I’m not 100% sure whether the EU has an entity will survive in the long run, but the business-friendly institutions will likely be there in Poland.

    I’d rather want Russia to be in this role of course. Moscow is truly one of the flagship cities of this world, which Warsaw will never be able to replicate. If anything with London (and perhaps Paris too) hovering at 50% white, it might already be the flagship European megacity by now, just extremely underrated. All of this will be moot if the embargo gets a green light of course especially by the EU; this is why I’m vehemently opposed to Russophobic hysteria. Likewise, St. Petersburg is already on par with cities like Barcelona, just criminally underrated and will actually be equal in recognition and popularity if its able to successfully compete for the same European tourists that’s already going in masses to Budapest/Prague.

    Read More
    • Replies: @Mitleser

    The hub is for a place that’s BETWEEN the heart of Europe and China, and if Russia gets embargoed, Poland will take this place.
     
    >implying it won't be Belarus

    Belarus seems to be one country with no concerns about China whatsoever. The speaker of Belarus' Upper House Myasnikovich calls for Chinese citizens to buy real estate in Belarus "both for short-term stays and permanent residency."
     
    https://twitter.com/ArtyomLukin/status/1021332058709405696
    , @Felix Keverich

    Second of all, this iron curtain will be for EU-Russia trade, not EU-China trade. Since China will have good relations with both Russia and Poland, this iron curtain will be meaningless for China, as such a Silk Route will likely be China owned and thus almost seen as quasi-Chinese territory, even if it blatantly technically crosses the “iron curtain”.
     
    I can guarantee you that Russians won't allow the Chinese own any territory within Russia's borders. Goods entering Russia from the EU will have to pass Russian customs control. Chinese government will have no way of monitoring goods while they traverse the Russian territory. There will be nothing to stop the sanctioned Russian entities from buying Western goods via Chinese intermediaries or shell companies.

    And that means Russia won't actually be embargoed. So WTF are you even talking about? How does a country like Russia, the world's number no.1 exporter of energy, a major transit hub between China and Europe becomes "isolated", "falls behind" the West, grows heavily dependent on China's FDI and eventually ends up in China's servitude?

    Are you from Poland by any chance? That would explain anti-Russian bullshit.
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  207. Like how the Imperium of Man sucessfully diverted the Tyrannids into going after the Orks?

    Do you have a real-life historical example?

    Read More
    • Replies: @Nznz
    Zimmerman telegram, sort of? Or the October Revolution? Or how 9/11 made the US lose its focus on countering China in the Pacific and go after Arabs and Muslims instead? In fact the entire IQ fetishism my be an attempt by white asian race mixers to divert the issue and take the heat off them and shift the ire to blacks, mexicans, and muslims instead.
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  208. @reiner Tor
    The Chinese seem to be able to mass produce anything quickly (and even training large number of troops is something not beyond their abilities), the difficulty is getting the ability to design and build the prototypes of high tech weapons systems. Once they are there (and they are getting there fast), they will quickly mass produce a huge arsenal of it and train the troops to operate them. And they are already very close. They will have a fully operational modern carrier by the mid-20s (and two others, one with a Soviet built hull and another based on that, albeit both probably more modern than the Kuznetsov - maybe the Kuznetsov will be close to them after its current refit? I doubt it could be better than the Chinese ones) and probably a large carrier fleet sometime in the 2030s. I don’t know if they are planning to build up their nuclear forces (they certainly have the plutonium for a much larger arsenal, and they could easily produce more plutonium either), but otherwise probably their military will be fully competitive with the American one by then. The Russian military will be a distinct third in that race.

    Call me a white supremascist, but I’m counting on racially inferior Mongoloids not being able to develop their own advanced military technology without a Soviet/American example for them to copy. Let’s not forget that everything Chinese achieved thus far was only made possible by copying stuff white people made.

    Our naval expert Martyanov says that Chinese surface vessels lack serious firepower. Not really suitable for anything, but patrolling China’s shores.

    Read More
    • Replies: @Dmitry
    You're right about Chinese and jet engines.

    But I recommend visit Japan for your next holiday if you think they're behind us, or would be incapable of catching up in jet engines.

    They have engineering skills in the areas they want - the problem is not their engineering, but the fact they apply it in some bizarre and useless ways which probably only are logical for an oriental mind.

    Outside Tokyo there is an autonomous train, which is driving on raised platforms over the sea. When we use it - the train was completely empty. The sensation of being on the train, is of hovering over the sea. At the end of the train there are on a floating island, some convention centers and a shopping mall (almost empty). In other words, the project is almost useless - but seems to be just a crazy demonstration of their skills. It's the kind of thing we might have in the 22nd century, but would never be crazy enough to try.

    Also have to understand how bad the earthquake situation. And yet the fact all their skyscrapers are not collapsing, but are designed to sway from side to side. (Can you imagine what a disaster this would be in a country with less competent engineers?)


    https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=6mbGcAzClfA

    , @utu

    Call me a white supremascist, but I’m counting on racially inferior Mongoloids not being able to develop their own advanced military technology without a Soviet/American example for them to copy. Let’s not forget that everything Chinese achieved thus far was only made possible by copying stuff white people made.
     
    China in talks for sale of jet engine technology to Germany
    https://www.scmp.com/news/china/society/article/2127796/china-talks-sale-jet-engine-technology-germany

    Beijing is now able to make strong jet engines.
    https://nationalinterest.org/blog/the-buzz/chinas-may-have-solved-the-one-thing-was-poised-stop-its-24149
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  209. Nznz says: • Website
    @Hyperborean

    Like how the Imperium of Man sucessfully diverted the Tyrannids into going after the Orks?
     
    Do you have a real-life historical example?

    Zimmerman telegram, sort of? Or the October Revolution? Or how 9/11 made the US lose its focus on countering China in the Pacific and go after Arabs and Muslims instead? In fact the entire IQ fetishism my be an attempt by white asian race mixers to divert the issue and take the heat off them and shift the ire to blacks, mexicans, and muslims instead.

    Read More
    • Replies: @Hyperborean
    So which country are you hoping to be?
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  210. @Nznz
    Zimmerman telegram, sort of? Or the October Revolution? Or how 9/11 made the US lose its focus on countering China in the Pacific and go after Arabs and Muslims instead? In fact the entire IQ fetishism my be an attempt by white asian race mixers to divert the issue and take the heat off them and shift the ire to blacks, mexicans, and muslims instead.

    So which country are you hoping to be?

    Read More
    • Replies: @Nznz
    Maybe the WNs could start a false flag incident?
    , @Nznz
    Maybe the WNs could start a false flag incident?
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  211. Mitleser says:
    @AquariusAnon
    First of all, the iron curtain between Russia and the EU (if it will even exist as anything more than a glorified free trade area as all of this fully kicks into gear) will be a lot more porous than the US-Russian iron curtain over the Atlantic, as the Iran relations have shown.

    Second of all, this iron curtain will be for EU-Russia trade, not EU-China trade. Since China will have good relations with both Russia and Poland, this iron curtain will be meaningless for China, as such a Silk Route will likely be China owned and thus almost seen as quasi-Chinese territory, even if it blatantly technically crosses the "iron curtain".

    The hub is for a place that's BETWEEN the heart of Europe and China, and if Russia gets embargoed, Poland will take this place. Poland will have the advantage of being in the EU while being closer to China than pretty much everyone else in the EU that's relevant. Granted, I'm not 100% sure whether the EU has an entity will survive in the long run, but the business-friendly institutions will likely be there in Poland.

    I'd rather want Russia to be in this role of course. Moscow is truly one of the flagship cities of this world, which Warsaw will never be able to replicate. If anything with London (and perhaps Paris too) hovering at 50% white, it might already be the flagship European megacity by now, just extremely underrated. All of this will be moot if the embargo gets a green light of course especially by the EU; this is why I'm vehemently opposed to Russophobic hysteria. Likewise, St. Petersburg is already on par with cities like Barcelona, just criminally underrated and will actually be equal in recognition and popularity if its able to successfully compete for the same European tourists that's already going in masses to Budapest/Prague.

    The hub is for a place that’s BETWEEN the heart of Europe and China, and if Russia gets embargoed, Poland will take this place.

    >implying it won’t be Belarus

    Belarus seems to be one country with no concerns about China whatsoever. The speaker of Belarus’ Upper House Myasnikovich calls for Chinese citizens to buy real estate in Belarus “both for short-term stays and permanent residency.”

    Read More
    • Replies: @AquariusAnon
    Belarus might be willing to acquire the infrastructure to handle the China side of things, but not very likely to have the ability to handle the European side. It has only 10 million people, and its not integrated enough with other European states to be such a hub, nor does it have the necessary institutions and infrastructure to support such an important role. With Belarus's hardcore Sovokism and apparently also some early signs of svidomy, Minsk is the last place I'd imagine as a "port" city.

    I may be wrong though, as I have zero knowledge of Belarus.
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  212. Nznz says: • Website
    @Hyperborean
    So which country are you hoping to be?

    Maybe the WNs could start a false flag incident?

    Read More
    • Replies: @Hyperborean
    For what aim? Trying to get the ''IQ fetishists'' purged simply means that the range of acceptable opinions moves away from your side.
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  213. Nznz says: • Website
    @Hyperborean
    So which country are you hoping to be?

    Maybe the WNs could start a false flag incident?

    Read More
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  214. @Mr. XYZ
    Kansas currently has less than three million people. Does it actually have enough resources to sustain 40 million people?

    Sure. People underestimate the productivity of modern agriculture. The US can feed well more than a billion people just by turning over the areas currently used for growing livestock feed and crops for ethanol/biodiesel to crops grown for human consumption.

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  215. @AquariusAnon
    First of all, the iron curtain between Russia and the EU (if it will even exist as anything more than a glorified free trade area as all of this fully kicks into gear) will be a lot more porous than the US-Russian iron curtain over the Atlantic, as the Iran relations have shown.

    Second of all, this iron curtain will be for EU-Russia trade, not EU-China trade. Since China will have good relations with both Russia and Poland, this iron curtain will be meaningless for China, as such a Silk Route will likely be China owned and thus almost seen as quasi-Chinese territory, even if it blatantly technically crosses the "iron curtain".

    The hub is for a place that's BETWEEN the heart of Europe and China, and if Russia gets embargoed, Poland will take this place. Poland will have the advantage of being in the EU while being closer to China than pretty much everyone else in the EU that's relevant. Granted, I'm not 100% sure whether the EU has an entity will survive in the long run, but the business-friendly institutions will likely be there in Poland.

    I'd rather want Russia to be in this role of course. Moscow is truly one of the flagship cities of this world, which Warsaw will never be able to replicate. If anything with London (and perhaps Paris too) hovering at 50% white, it might already be the flagship European megacity by now, just extremely underrated. All of this will be moot if the embargo gets a green light of course especially by the EU; this is why I'm vehemently opposed to Russophobic hysteria. Likewise, St. Petersburg is already on par with cities like Barcelona, just criminally underrated and will actually be equal in recognition and popularity if its able to successfully compete for the same European tourists that's already going in masses to Budapest/Prague.

    Second of all, this iron curtain will be for EU-Russia trade, not EU-China trade. Since China will have good relations with both Russia and Poland, this iron curtain will be meaningless for China, as such a Silk Route will likely be China owned and thus almost seen as quasi-Chinese territory, even if it blatantly technically crosses the “iron curtain”.

    I can guarantee you that Russians won’t allow the Chinese own any territory within Russia’s borders. Goods entering Russia from the EU will have to pass Russian customs control. Chinese government will have no way of monitoring goods while they traverse the Russian territory. There will be nothing to stop the sanctioned Russian entities from buying Western goods via Chinese intermediaries or shell companies.

    And that means Russia won’t actually be embargoed. So WTF are you even talking about? How does a country like Russia, the world’s number no.1 exporter of energy, a major transit hub between China and Europe becomes “isolated”, “falls behind” the West, grows heavily dependent on China’s FDI and eventually ends up in China’s servitude?

    Are you from Poland by any chance? That would explain anti-Russian bullshit.

    Read More
    • Replies: @AquariusAnon
    I'm from an undisclosed territory in Asia, so no not Polish lol. But I do have relatives with deep Polish experience.

    I'm anti-svidomy and anti-Russophobic hysteria. As I said, I'm just hypothesizing what if Russia-Western relations plunges to Iran-Western relation levels with the backdrop of a growing China that wants to strengthen its ties with Europe via a stable land-based trade route.

    I personally want to see a Russia that has strong, equally good partnerships with everyone except for the hysterical Russophobes and svidomists, with Deng-era China as a template, and act as an important swing/mediator state in the 21st century, with a non-oil dependent diversified, globally integrated first world economy.

    An economy that specializes and globally leading in at least half of, if not all of the following: heavy industries, manufacturing, software IT, electronics, tourism, Europe-Asia logistics, and finance instead of just oil/gas and military tech. And of course, one without Central Asian gasterbeiters and that can bring Moscow's reconstruction to Vladivostok and most of the oblast capitals in between. The highly successful world cup was a great step in this direction.

    , @AquariusAnon
    And btw, Iran for all intents and purposes, is embargoed by the West. There is still bits and pieces of trade going on. That's the situation I'm talking about, not North Korea, regarding the endgame of neoliberalism.txt and svidomy unholy alliance of crusade against Russia. Hot war is definitely out of the picture, but such an Iran situation is likely.
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  216. @Nznz
    Maybe the WNs could start a false flag incident?

    For what aim? Trying to get the ”IQ fetishists” purged simply means that the range of acceptable opinions moves away from your side.

    Read More
    • Replies: @Nznz
    What is the IQ needed in order to make a pleasant place to live in? I mean the media IQ of Sweden in 1935 cannot be too much 100 right? Philosophically speaking, i am against trnshumanism or cyborgism since it will ruin the sanctity of the human body, and i take Musk's view against fully autonomous AI, so i favor some hard limit with respect to machine intelligence.
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  217. Nznz says: • Website
    @Dan Bagrov
    Yeah, this is right. I've been hoping against hope that Trump could sort this out but America is too far gone. I wouldn't totally dismiss the demographic risks of Chinese flooding Siberia and the far east, simply due to the great numbers of Chinamen, but indeed the draw is minimal, especially when there are so many warmer places with established Hua-Qiao communities. Chinese demographic invasion is a bigger risk to America where they have burrowed their way deep into the economic trunk of the country (go to any office of a big company). Russia is better off staying with China, and waiting for Populist-Nationlists to take power in Europe and for the USA to become overwhelmed by the scope of Chinese infiltration and soft power. Heaven forbid Apple lose access to the Chinese market! Better hand them Taiwan or even Hawaii! Time is on Russia's side, as long as the government stays reasonably competent, even if it will be a mostly Chinese century.

    Will a 98 percent Slavic Russia that retrenches to the teritory of the Kievan Rus be able to survive economically?

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  218. @Mr. XYZ
    Would Germans with breeder genes be willing to have a lot of children in the western, more overcrowded part of Germany, though?

    I mean, France certainly has a lot of living space, but the Benelux countries and western Germany don't.

    I don’t think this matters much. Look at the ghettos where Haredi Jews live in Israel.

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  219. Nznz says: • Website
    @Hyperborean
    For what aim? Trying to get the ''IQ fetishists'' purged simply means that the range of acceptable opinions moves away from your side.

    What is the IQ needed in order to make a pleasant place to live in? I mean the media IQ of Sweden in 1935 cannot be too much 100 right? Philosophically speaking, i am against trnshumanism or cyborgism since it will ruin the sanctity of the human body, and i take Musk’s view against fully autonomous AI, so i favor some hard limit with respect to machine intelligence.

    Read More
    • Replies: @Hyperborean

    What is the IQ needed in order to make a pleasant place to live in?
     
    To be a pleasant place I actually believe culture matters the most. To be a powerful country is a different matter, and in that case I believe it is difficult if average IQ level is too low.

    But the point is that the people who would purge IQ fetishists would also purge racialists.
    , @LondonBob
    Lynn and the Finnish gentleman reckoned 90 is required for a modern state, smart fractions can mitigate the effects of a low IQ populace but you really want a homogenous country with a high IQ, like Japan. South Africa is a real mess, as is Brazil.
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  220. @Nznz
    Like how the Imperium of Man sucessfully diverted the Tyrannids into going after the Orks?

    In that fictional example, it created superorks and tyranids.

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  221. Nznz says: • Website

    The hope is that the non-WN right and the liberals will end up killing each other and the WNs can just BTFO and hunker down and pick up the pieces after both sides are weakened enough from bleeding each other white, like what happened with the Byzantines and Sasanids. Or how the Western Allies was fighting only the fag ends of the Wehrmacht on the Western front.

    Read More
    • Replies: @Thorfinnsson
    I'm going to put this gently.

    You are an idiot.
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  222. @Nznz
    What is the IQ needed in order to make a pleasant place to live in? I mean the media IQ of Sweden in 1935 cannot be too much 100 right? Philosophically speaking, i am against trnshumanism or cyborgism since it will ruin the sanctity of the human body, and i take Musk's view against fully autonomous AI, so i favor some hard limit with respect to machine intelligence.

    What is the IQ needed in order to make a pleasant place to live in?

    To be a pleasant place I actually believe culture matters the most. To be a powerful country is a different matter, and in that case I believe it is difficult if average IQ level is too low.

    But the point is that the people who would purge IQ fetishists would also purge racialists.

    Read More
    • Replies: @Anatoly Karlin
    Correct.

    One historical example is the 1930s USSR. While nationalists of all sorts (including Eurasianists) were killed, as admittedly were the geneticists, the psychometrists were merely banned from publishing their work from 1936.

    In this analogy, while Steve and I get banned from the Internet, the likes of Nznz will be getting dragged down to the basement.

    PS. The caliber of the people who tell me to go back to America is, as usual, noted.
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  223. @Felix Keverich

    Second of all, this iron curtain will be for EU-Russia trade, not EU-China trade. Since China will have good relations with both Russia and Poland, this iron curtain will be meaningless for China, as such a Silk Route will likely be China owned and thus almost seen as quasi-Chinese territory, even if it blatantly technically crosses the “iron curtain”.
     
    I can guarantee you that Russians won't allow the Chinese own any territory within Russia's borders. Goods entering Russia from the EU will have to pass Russian customs control. Chinese government will have no way of monitoring goods while they traverse the Russian territory. There will be nothing to stop the sanctioned Russian entities from buying Western goods via Chinese intermediaries or shell companies.

    And that means Russia won't actually be embargoed. So WTF are you even talking about? How does a country like Russia, the world's number no.1 exporter of energy, a major transit hub between China and Europe becomes "isolated", "falls behind" the West, grows heavily dependent on China's FDI and eventually ends up in China's servitude?

    Are you from Poland by any chance? That would explain anti-Russian bullshit.

    I’m from an undisclosed territory in Asia, so no not Polish lol. But I do have relatives with deep Polish experience.

    I’m anti-svidomy and anti-Russophobic hysteria. As I said, I’m just hypothesizing what if Russia-Western relations plunges to Iran-Western relation levels with the backdrop of a growing China that wants to strengthen its ties with Europe via a stable land-based trade route.

    I personally want to see a Russia that has strong, equally good partnerships with everyone except for the hysterical Russophobes and svidomists, with Deng-era China as a template, and act as an important swing/mediator state in the 21st century, with a non-oil dependent diversified, globally integrated first world economy.

    An economy that specializes and globally leading in at least half of, if not all of the following: heavy industries, manufacturing, software IT, electronics, tourism, Europe-Asia logistics, and finance instead of just oil/gas and military tech. And of course, one without Central Asian gasterbeiters and that can bring Moscow’s reconstruction to Vladivostok and most of the oblast capitals in between. The highly successful world cup was a great step in this direction.

    Read More
    • Replies: @Felix Keverich

    I’m from an undisclosed territory in Asia, so no not Polish lol. But I do have relatives with deep Polish experience.
     
    So you are a mixed-race half-Polish person in Asia? That would be unusual.

    You may be not very familiar with Russia as a country. It is not the kind of country that trades its sovereignty for security and a bit of FDI. Russia is in fact exporting security to other countries. Has no shortage of money either, being the world's largest exporter of hydrocarbons. We haven't been a "tributary state" since the Mongol era - not a time we want to relive.
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  224. @Felix Keverich

    Second of all, this iron curtain will be for EU-Russia trade, not EU-China trade. Since China will have good relations with both Russia and Poland, this iron curtain will be meaningless for China, as such a Silk Route will likely be China owned and thus almost seen as quasi-Chinese territory, even if it blatantly technically crosses the “iron curtain”.
     
    I can guarantee you that Russians won't allow the Chinese own any territory within Russia's borders. Goods entering Russia from the EU will have to pass Russian customs control. Chinese government will have no way of monitoring goods while they traverse the Russian territory. There will be nothing to stop the sanctioned Russian entities from buying Western goods via Chinese intermediaries or shell companies.

    And that means Russia won't actually be embargoed. So WTF are you even talking about? How does a country like Russia, the world's number no.1 exporter of energy, a major transit hub between China and Europe becomes "isolated", "falls behind" the West, grows heavily dependent on China's FDI and eventually ends up in China's servitude?

    Are you from Poland by any chance? That would explain anti-Russian bullshit.

    And btw, Iran for all intents and purposes, is embargoed by the West. There is still bits and pieces of trade going on. That’s the situation I’m talking about, not North Korea, regarding the endgame of neoliberalism.txt and svidomy unholy alliance of crusade against Russia. Hot war is definitely out of the picture, but such an Iran situation is likely.

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  225. LondonBob says:
    @Nznz
    What is the IQ needed in order to make a pleasant place to live in? I mean the media IQ of Sweden in 1935 cannot be too much 100 right? Philosophically speaking, i am against trnshumanism or cyborgism since it will ruin the sanctity of the human body, and i take Musk's view against fully autonomous AI, so i favor some hard limit with respect to machine intelligence.

    Lynn and the Finnish gentleman reckoned 90 is required for a modern state, smart fractions can mitigate the effects of a low IQ populace but you really want a homogenous country with a high IQ, like Japan. South Africa is a real mess, as is Brazil.

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    • Replies: @AquariusAnon
    Talking about South Africa, it seems that South Africa will eventually stabilize as a 5% white country way down the road assuming genocide or race war doesn't happen. Wonder how "developed" it will be by then.

    Again, when some alt-righters talk about race war, I use South Africa as the bellwether. There will be no race riots anywhere in the world unless South Africa goes down in flames Yugoslavia-style. Whats going on in Italy isn't a race war, but just a pushback against illegal immigration and crime.

    South Africa may very well be the next Syria, and will probably mark the first time a relevant country with a globally connected economy plunges into hot civil war in a while (with the last being Yugoslavia). Never underestimate 5 million Dutch, French, and English descended whites vs 60 million pure Bantu blacks, even if they armed similarly.

    I think Brazil's "Venezuela moment" will come more or less around the time South Africa plunges into civil war. Both scenarios I predict to happen circa 2030 or so.
    , @Nznz
    What is the IQ of native Austrians or Lombardians or Italian Swiss?
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  226. AP says:
    @Mr. XYZ
    Interesting point about Black societies.

    What is interesting, though, is that in spite of Muslim opposition to homosexuality, some Muslims do engage in homosexual acts even in heavily homophobic Muslim countries. For instance, take a look at the dancing boys (bacha bazi) in Afghanistan.

    Muslims don’t place much stigma on “tops” and don’t consider that to be homosexuality. I heard a credible account from a gay “bottom” who had a very enjoyable sexual holiday in rural Turkey, with people who didn’t speak much English.

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  227. @Mitleser

    The hub is for a place that’s BETWEEN the heart of Europe and China, and if Russia gets embargoed, Poland will take this place.
     
    >implying it won't be Belarus

    Belarus seems to be one country with no concerns about China whatsoever. The speaker of Belarus' Upper House Myasnikovich calls for Chinese citizens to buy real estate in Belarus "both for short-term stays and permanent residency."
     
    https://twitter.com/ArtyomLukin/status/1021332058709405696

    Belarus might be willing to acquire the infrastructure to handle the China side of things, but not very likely to have the ability to handle the European side. It has only 10 million people, and its not integrated enough with other European states to be such a hub, nor does it have the necessary institutions and infrastructure to support such an important role. With Belarus’s hardcore Sovokism and apparently also some early signs of svidomy, Minsk is the last place I’d imagine as a “port” city.

    I may be wrong though, as I have zero knowledge of Belarus.

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    • Replies: @Mitleser
    There are at least two problems with Poland as western Chinese hub.
    Poland (and the rest of the EU) is less invested in strong ties with China than Belarus (and the rest of the EAEU). As a consequence, it takes less time to transport something via train from China to Brest than from Brest to Duisburg in Germany despite the latter being much shorter route.
    The other issue is that Poland is subordinated to Brüssel's rules and Brüssel is pushing back against unwelcome Chinese influence.
    Not to mention that Poland is one of the most pro-American countries.
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  228. It looks like USA is backtracking on sanctions already. Aeroflot will not be banned from flights to USA.

    https://www.reuters.com/article/usa-russia-sanctions/u-s-says-russia-sanctions-to-target-security-related-goods-idUSS8N1TG018

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    • Replies: @LondonBob
    Well the Deripaska sanctions blew up in their faces and meaningful sanctions have been seen as a failure since. I am not sure what to make of these new sanctions, those ones proposed by the Israel lobby in Congress won't happen, Europe won't tolerate.
    , @AP
    Very nice, I like that New York-Moscow direct flight.
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  229. AP says:
    @Mr. XYZ
    Russia and the Intermarium could theoretically team up and become a formidable rival to the United States. After all, combined, they would probably have a similar number of Whites to those in the United States. Of course, such an Intermarium could be hurt by the lack of Jewish and Asian cognitive elites--something which could prevent them from innovating as much as the U.S. does.

    Of course, the distrust among Russia and the Intermarium should be enormous due to memories of Communist rule. Still, they do seem to agree on some things--such as keeping their countries White and European (the Eurasian Economic Union appears to be mostly for show; indeed, as far as I can tell, Central Asian gastarbeiters in Russia don't bring their girlfriends/spouses with them and thus don't have many children in Russia).

    Agree. Also –

    Of course, the distrust among Russia and the Intermarium should be enormous due to memories of Communist rule.

    Russia’s post-Communist behavior has also been cause for much mistrust. By the time any rapprochement would be possible, Russia would probably be deeply integrated into the Chinese system.

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    • Replies: @Felix Keverich
    What would be the end goal for Russia in pursuing a rapproachment with "Intermarium"?

    Subordinating and partially cannibalising "Intermarium" would seem like a more promising approach. Especially once US is out of the picture and Western system is no more.
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  230. AP says:
    @Mr. XYZ
    Also, out of curiosity--to AP: Do you think that a surviving but reformed Soviet Union (perhaps existing as a confederation) would have looked similar to what Western Europe looks like today or will look like in the future?

    Indeed, what would have been the Muslim percentage of the total population in a surviving but reformed Soviet Union in, say, 2050 or 2100? 25%? More than that?

    Muslim percentage would have been higher than in the EU, but also generally less troublesome, unless the Americans managed to successfully stir them up.

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    • Replies: @AquariusAnon
    I wouldn't say that Russia behaved too awfully to Eastern Europe.

    Russia did make some key strategic mistakes. First of all, relying on a guy as corrupt as Yanukovich to run Ukraine was stupid. If anything, an economic-oriented, pragmatic partnership with Tymoshenko's Ukraine would've worked out better, where relations while not good more like relations with Georgia now, than the svidomy quagmire today.

    Second of all, Russia has been unable to convert its military tech to being a civilian industry powerhouse. Even Embraer managed to left Sukhoi in the dust. A civilian economy based on energy AND manufacturing, the latter of which is clearly doable given the amount of high quality military tech its producing post-Yeltsin, is much better than a civilian economy based on just energy. And having its own competitive brands, or simply manufacturing for foreign companies like what China has been doing, makes it less susceptible to sanctions, and much more difficult to even lobby for sanctions and broken relations in the West and Ukraine in the first place.

    Third of all, the complete failure in soft power. For example, Serebro's Russian songs could've been the spearhead of a global Russian pop culture wave; they're hot and have a unique sound that's not a blatant copy of America (looking at Timati and Egor Krid here). Or Red October candies and chocolates. And also the failure to develop a tourism industry (no busloads of cheap Chinese tourists that don't contribute to the Russian economy at all don't count). Russia's European culture/history, girls, and Soviet past should've translated to a very robust entertainment and tourism industry by now.

    Doing all of that would've made Russia much more attractive to not just Eastern Europeans but the rest of the West, and Russia would've gained so much more leverage on Eastern Europe too. In essence, Russia should've followed the Chinese economic model while leveraging far more its European culture and recent Soviet history.
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  231. @utu

    The latter two would result in the War of 1812, and indeed led to American invasions of Canada.
     
    The wars usually get their names after they end. American invasions of Canada was first before it got buried in American historiography as War of 1812. British occupation of Washington DC was reactive.

    http://theweek.com/articles/473482/americas-invasion-canada-brief-history
    It was the closest British colony, but Madison also had political reasons for targeting America's northern neighbor. His Democratic-Republican Party drew much of its support from the rural South and what was then the American West — the territory stretching up the Mississippi basin to the Great Lakes. Frontier inhabitants were eager to strike at the British in Canada because they suspected them of arming Native American tribes that were standing in the way of America's westward expansion. Many Americans also believed that the invasion would be a cakewalk, and that ordinary Canadians were keen to shake off their British overlords. The "acquisition of Canada," predicted former President Thomas Jefferson, "will be a mere matter of marching."
     
    Anyway it does not seem that British ever wanted to destroy the regime of "slave drivers yelping for liberty."

    Frontier inhabitants were eager to strike at the British in Canada because they suspected them of arming Native American tribes that were standing in the way of America’s westward expansion. Many Americans also believed that the invasion would be a cakewalk, and that ordinary Canadians were keen to shake off their British overlords. The “acquisition of Canada,” predicted former President Thomas Jefferson, “will be a mere matter of marching.”

    And those frontier inhabitants were not wrong, though exaggerated. The British were indeed arming Native American tribes.

    https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Tecumseh

    Tecumseh’s death was a decisive blow to the American Indians. It had larger implications during negotiations for the Treaty of Ghent (1814). During the treaty process, the British called for the U.S. government to return lands in Ohio, Indiana, and Michigan to the Indians. For decades the British strategy had been to create a buffer state to block American expansion, but the Americans refused to consider the British proposal and it was dropped

    And as you noted, the US was quite confident, almost mystically, that Canada would shortly be added to the country. Either to “free them from oppression” or to due to much more mercenary concerns of urbanized cities to add to the US, the devotees of Manifest Destiny felt that it was an inevitability that Canada would be added to the US, giving up mostly only after the War of 1812. Its surprising if the British were not hostile, given that they were basically being actively threatened with invasion on their remaining NA holdings.

    Thanks for the reference to Francis Jennings! I will check out some of his books this weekend.

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    • Replies: @utu

    the British called for the U.S. government to return lands in Ohio, Indiana, and Michigan to the Indians.
     
    I wish somebody would write about what really was behind British insistence on respecting treaties with Indians. Was it sincere? Was it just a formalism?

    The greed for land of American colonist was one of the main causes of American Revolution that is not talked about. George Washington was a very greedy man and he like many others wanted to expand West but British treaties with Indians did not let him.

    So what was behind American Revolution? Freedom, liberty? To be free from moral obligations that monarchy was still willing to respect. What is behind socialism? The same thing. But it is always being sold to people as freedom and/or equality.

    American democracy strength was in the ability of denial and hiding behind spontaneous action of the people driven by natural forces. It is worthwhile to read some history of Alaska and how lives of natives have changed after it was sold by Russian and when the gold diggers and settlers begin to come. The power of democracy is in its immorality. Vox populi vox dei. BTW, I traveled there and had opportunity to see how American Inuits compared with Russian Chukchi. Clearly America was much more devastating to native culture and community than Russian and Soviet systems.
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  232. @LondonBob
    Lynn and the Finnish gentleman reckoned 90 is required for a modern state, smart fractions can mitigate the effects of a low IQ populace but you really want a homogenous country with a high IQ, like Japan. South Africa is a real mess, as is Brazil.

    Talking about South Africa, it seems that South Africa will eventually stabilize as a 5% white country way down the road assuming genocide or race war doesn’t happen. Wonder how “developed” it will be by then.

    Again, when some alt-righters talk about race war, I use South Africa as the bellwether. There will be no race riots anywhere in the world unless South Africa goes down in flames Yugoslavia-style. Whats going on in Italy isn’t a race war, but just a pushback against illegal immigration and crime.

    South Africa may very well be the next Syria, and will probably mark the first time a relevant country with a globally connected economy plunges into hot civil war in a while (with the last being Yugoslavia). Never underestimate 5 million Dutch, French, and English descended whites vs 60 million pure Bantu blacks, even if they armed similarly.

    I think Brazil’s “Venezuela moment” will come more or less around the time South Africa plunges into civil war. Both scenarios I predict to happen circa 2030 or so.

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    • Replies: @Daniel Chieh

    There will be no race riots anywhere in the world unless South Africa goes down in flames Yugoslavia-style.
     
    Yugoslavia-esque may happen in South Africa, but it won't be a "race war." I'm actually somewhat familiar with people from that place, any actual effort to overthrow the government through violence will involve alliances with Africans. The wildest idea I heard was to encourage an invasion from a neighboring country, and then assist the invaders, leveraging themselves so the Afrikaaners will be placed in a better position. This also makes it much harder for the UN or other agency to simply North Korea them.

    There's a certain level of amorality to this, and it should not be forgotten: Afrikaaners have become Africans. Different kind of African than the blacks, of course. But Africans. You become who you fight eventually.
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  233. LondonBob says:
    @Felix Keverich
    It looks like USA is backtracking on sanctions already. Aeroflot will not be banned from flights to USA.

    https://www.reuters.com/article/usa-russia-sanctions/u-s-says-russia-sanctions-to-target-security-related-goods-idUSS8N1TG018

    Well the Deripaska sanctions blew up in their faces and meaningful sanctions have been seen as a failure since. I am not sure what to make of these new sanctions, those ones proposed by the Israel lobby in Congress won’t happen, Europe won’t tolerate.

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  234. @Mitleser

    I don’t know if they are planning to build up their nuclear forces (they certainly have the plutonium for a much larger arsenal, and they could easily produce more plutonium either)
     
    The PRC's ability to build up their nuclear forces is smaller than you think.

    IPFM's new research report "China's Fissile Material Production and Stockpile" (PDF copy) by Hui Zhang uses information from newly available Chinese public sources to provide a more detailed and documented reconstruction of China's production of highly enriched uranium (HEU) and plutonium for nuclear weapons.

    The report provides new evidence to constrain the operating histories for China's Lanzhou and Heping gaseous diffusion enrichment plants. Lanzhou stopped HEU production for weapons in 1980 and shifted to making low enriched uranium (LEU) for civilian power reactors and possibly for naval reactors. It was shut down on 31 December 2000 and in 2017 was demolished. The Heping plant may still be operating but not producing HEU for weapons. China also has centrifuge enrichment plants but they are believed not to produce HEU for weapons.

    The new report also offers new details on the operational experience of the Jiuquan and Guangyuan weapon plutonium production reactors. China also used these reactors to produce tritium for weapons. The reactors were closed in the 1980s and have been undergoing decommissioning.

    Despite the end of HEU and plutonium production for weapons thirty years ago, China has made no official policy declaration formalizing this situation.

    The report offers an improved estimates of the amount of HEU and plutonium China has produced and of its current stockpiles. China's stockpile of weapon-grade HEU (assumed to be 90 percent uranium-235) is estimated to be about 14±3 metric tons, lower than the previous IPFM estimate. The stockpile of plutonium available for weapons is estimated to be about 2.9±0.6 tons, significantly larger than the previous IPFM estimate.
     
    http://fissilematerials.org/blog/2018/01/chinas_fissile_material_p.html

    The stockpile of plutonium available for weapons is estimated to be about 2.9±0.6 tons, significantly larger than the previous IPFM estimate.

    But is it not enough for maybe a thousand warheads or so? Okay, they’d need tritium, too. Anyway, they could easily build new plants to produce more plutonium. I’m sure it’s more a question of a political decision than anything else.

    For other nuclear powers (the UK, France, India, Pakistan, Israel, North Korea) it might be a question of budgetary constraints, but I don’t think it plays a role in China. Don’t forget that their military buildup in general was quite muted until recently.

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    • Replies: @Mitleser
    Budget or not, it takes time to build new plants and (re-)start production.
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  235. @Hyperborean

    What is the IQ needed in order to make a pleasant place to live in?
     
    To be a pleasant place I actually believe culture matters the most. To be a powerful country is a different matter, and in that case I believe it is difficult if average IQ level is too low.

    But the point is that the people who would purge IQ fetishists would also purge racialists.

    Correct.

    One historical example is the 1930s USSR. While nationalists of all sorts (including Eurasianists) were killed, as admittedly were the geneticists, the psychometrists were merely banned from publishing their work from 1936.

    In this analogy, while Steve and I get banned from the Internet, the likes of Nznz will be getting dragged down to the basement.

    PS. The caliber of the people who tell me to go back to America is, as usual, noted.

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  236. @AquariusAnon
    I'm from an undisclosed territory in Asia, so no not Polish lol. But I do have relatives with deep Polish experience.

    I'm anti-svidomy and anti-Russophobic hysteria. As I said, I'm just hypothesizing what if Russia-Western relations plunges to Iran-Western relation levels with the backdrop of a growing China that wants to strengthen its ties with Europe via a stable land-based trade route.

    I personally want to see a Russia that has strong, equally good partnerships with everyone except for the hysterical Russophobes and svidomists, with Deng-era China as a template, and act as an important swing/mediator state in the 21st century, with a non-oil dependent diversified, globally integrated first world economy.

    An economy that specializes and globally leading in at least half of, if not all of the following: heavy industries, manufacturing, software IT, electronics, tourism, Europe-Asia logistics, and finance instead of just oil/gas and military tech. And of course, one without Central Asian gasterbeiters and that can bring Moscow's reconstruction to Vladivostok and most of the oblast capitals in between. The highly successful world cup was a great step in this direction.

    I’m from an undisclosed territory in Asia, so no not Polish lol. But I do have relatives with deep Polish experience.

    So you are a mixed-race half-Polish person in Asia? That would be unusual.

    You may be not very familiar with Russia as a country. It is not the kind of country that trades its sovereignty for security and a bit of FDI. Russia is in fact exporting security to other countries. Has no shortage of money either, being the world’s largest exporter of hydrocarbons. We haven’t been a “tributary state” since the Mongol era – not a time we want to relive.

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    • Replies: @Anatoly Karlin
    The argument he's making is that if Russia's relations with the West (inc. the EU) start resembling Iran's relations with the United States, then that is likely what will happen.

    I seems plausible, though of course I don't see it going as far as he projects - certainly having PLA bases seems implausible. (Considering the controversy over the minor non-military logistics hub in Ulyanovsk to support NATO in Afghanistan).
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  237. @Felix Keverich

    I’m from an undisclosed territory in Asia, so no not Polish lol. But I do have relatives with deep Polish experience.
     
    So you are a mixed-race half-Polish person in Asia? That would be unusual.

    You may be not very familiar with Russia as a country. It is not the kind of country that trades its sovereignty for security and a bit of FDI. Russia is in fact exporting security to other countries. Has no shortage of money either, being the world's largest exporter of hydrocarbons. We haven't been a "tributary state" since the Mongol era - not a time we want to relive.

    The argument he’s making is that if Russia’s relations with the West (inc. the EU) start resembling Iran’s relations with the United States, then that is likely what will happen.

    I seems plausible, though of course I don’t see it going as far as he projects – certainly having PLA bases seems implausible. (Considering the controversy over the minor non-military logistics hub in Ulyanovsk to support NATO in Afghanistan).

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    • Agree: AP
    • Replies: @Felix Keverich
    Has Iran become a "tribute country" to China, or did I miss something? His argument is bunk.

    I don't see how China's belt and road initiative could even function under such conditions.
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  238. @AP
    Agree. Also -

    Of course, the distrust among Russia and the Intermarium should be enormous due to memories of Communist rule.
     
    Russia's post-Communist behavior has also been cause for much mistrust. By the time any rapprochement would be possible, Russia would probably be deeply integrated into the Chinese system.

    What would be the end goal for Russia in pursuing a rapproachment with “Intermarium”?

    Subordinating and partially cannibalising “Intermarium” would seem like a more promising approach. Especially once US is out of the picture and Western system is no more.

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    • Replies: @AP

    What would be the end goal for Russia in pursuing a rapproachment with “Intermarium”?
     
    Friendly relations between neighbors generally preferable to hostile ones, assuming decent behavior by each. For both Russia and Intermarium.

    Subordinating and partially cannibalising “Intermarium” would seem like a more promising approach.
     
    Based on the fantasy that parts of Intermarium love Russia and want to be liberated by it, which is not the case.

    Intermarium will have about 70% of Russia's population or 90% of Russia's Slavic population. Not so easy to subvert and destroy.

    Especially once US is out of the picture and Western system is no more.
     
    Based on the fantasy that USA will collapse and disappear.
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  239. Nznz says: • Website
    @LondonBob
    Lynn and the Finnish gentleman reckoned 90 is required for a modern state, smart fractions can mitigate the effects of a low IQ populace but you really want a homogenous country with a high IQ, like Japan. South Africa is a real mess, as is Brazil.

    What is the IQ of native Austrians or Lombardians or Italian Swiss?

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  240. @Anatoly Karlin
    The argument he's making is that if Russia's relations with the West (inc. the EU) start resembling Iran's relations with the United States, then that is likely what will happen.

    I seems plausible, though of course I don't see it going as far as he projects - certainly having PLA bases seems implausible. (Considering the controversy over the minor non-military logistics hub in Ulyanovsk to support NATO in Afghanistan).

    Has Iran become a “tribute country” to China, or did I miss something? His argument is bunk.

    I don’t see how China’s belt and road initiative could even function under such conditions.

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    • Replies: @AquariusAnon
    Iran is much less strategically important for China than Russia. Russia is China's strategic rear and a really important 2-way gate for land-based European trade while Iran is some smaller far away land that's not really on the urgent list for China.
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  241. @AP
    Muslim percentage would have been higher than in the EU, but also generally less troublesome, unless the Americans managed to successfully stir them up.

    I wouldn’t say that Russia behaved too awfully to Eastern Europe.

    Russia did make some key strategic mistakes. First of all, relying on a guy as corrupt as Yanukovich to run Ukraine was stupid. If anything, an economic-oriented, pragmatic partnership with Tymoshenko’s Ukraine would’ve worked out better, where relations while not good more like relations with Georgia now, than the svidomy quagmire today.

    Second of all, Russia has been unable to convert its military tech to being a civilian industry powerhouse. Even Embraer managed to left Sukhoi in the dust. A civilian economy based on energy AND manufacturing, the latter of which is clearly doable given the amount of high quality military tech its producing post-Yeltsin, is much better than a civilian economy based on just energy. And having its own competitive brands, or simply manufacturing for foreign companies like what China has been doing, makes it less susceptible to sanctions, and much more difficult to even lobby for sanctions and broken relations in the West and Ukraine in the first place.

    Third of all, the complete failure in soft power. For example, Serebro’s Russian songs could’ve been the spearhead of a global Russian pop culture wave; they’re hot and have a unique sound that’s not a blatant copy of America (looking at Timati and Egor Krid here). Or Red October candies and chocolates. And also the failure to develop a tourism industry (no busloads of cheap Chinese tourists that don’t contribute to the Russian economy at all don’t count). Russia’s European culture/history, girls, and Soviet past should’ve translated to a very robust entertainment and tourism industry by now.

    Doing all of that would’ve made Russia much more attractive to not just Eastern Europeans but the rest of the West, and Russia would’ve gained so much more leverage on Eastern Europe too. In essence, Russia should’ve followed the Chinese economic model while leveraging far more its European culture and recent Soviet history.

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    • Replies: @AP

    I wouldn’t say that Russia behaved too awfully to Eastern Europe
     
    Most Eastern Europeans would disagree, and this is what matters.

    Russia did make some key strategic mistakes. First of all, relying on a guy as corrupt as Yanukovich to run Ukraine was stupid. If anything, an economic-oriented, pragmatic partnership with Tymoshenko’s Ukraine would’ve worked out better, where relations while not good more like relations with Georgia now
     
    Agreed. But keep in mind that such a Ukraine would have drifted into the EU and possibly (but less likely) NATO. It would have been a relatively Russia-friendly country, such as Bulgaria or Greece*, within these organizations, but it still would have been lost to Russia. Russia gambled on Yanukovich because he was the only one who would have bound Ukraine to Russia and cut it off from the EU.

    It was a failed gamble.

    In terms of geopolitical orientation and attitude, Russia tried to turn Ukraine into another Belarus rather than allowing it to become another Bulgaria, and instead ended up with another Poland. But got Crimea as a consolation prize.


    *Ukraine really wasn't that hostile to Russia prior to 2014. Even something like 60% of western Ukrainians had a friendly attitude towards Russia. It is a reasonable possibility that if not for 2014 Ukraine and the rest of eastern Europe would have had an Orban-style attitude towards Russia and the West.
    , @Mitleser

    First of all, relying on a guy as corrupt as Yanukovich to run Ukraine was stupid. If anything, an economic-oriented, pragmatic partnership with Tymoshenko’s Ukraine would’ve worked out better, where relations while not good more like relations with Georgia now, than the svidomy quagmire today.
     
    As if relations with Yanuk's Ukraine were not "economic-oriented, pragmatic"and Timoshenko is not corrupt.

    Even Embraer managed to left Sukhoi in the dust.
     
    Why shouldn't it? They have far more experience in the civ.-aircraft business.
    It is better to compare Sukhoi with other newbies.
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  242. AP says:
    @Felix Keverich
    It looks like USA is backtracking on sanctions already. Aeroflot will not be banned from flights to USA.

    https://www.reuters.com/article/usa-russia-sanctions/u-s-says-russia-sanctions-to-target-security-related-goods-idUSS8N1TG018

    Very nice, I like that New York-Moscow direct flight.

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    • Replies: @AquariusAnon
    Talking about flights, my wish list would be a 3x weekly Aeroflot A330 flight to Taipei, and a daily Cathay Pacific A350 to Domodedovo. Also for both Korean Air and Japan Airlines to upgauge to 777-300ER on their Moscow flights (and still fill them up).

    And of course, a resumption of Russia-Ukraine flights, hopefully to 2013 levels.
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  243. @AquariusAnon
    Talking about South Africa, it seems that South Africa will eventually stabilize as a 5% white country way down the road assuming genocide or race war doesn't happen. Wonder how "developed" it will be by then.

    Again, when some alt-righters talk about race war, I use South Africa as the bellwether. There will be no race riots anywhere in the world unless South Africa goes down in flames Yugoslavia-style. Whats going on in Italy isn't a race war, but just a pushback against illegal immigration and crime.

    South Africa may very well be the next Syria, and will probably mark the first time a relevant country with a globally connected economy plunges into hot civil war in a while (with the last being Yugoslavia). Never underestimate 5 million Dutch, French, and English descended whites vs 60 million pure Bantu blacks, even if they armed similarly.

    I think Brazil's "Venezuela moment" will come more or less around the time South Africa plunges into civil war. Both scenarios I predict to happen circa 2030 or so.

    There will be no race riots anywhere in the world unless South Africa goes down in flames Yugoslavia-style.

    Yugoslavia-esque may happen in South Africa, but it won’t be a “race war.” I’m actually somewhat familiar with people from that place, any actual effort to overthrow the government through violence will involve alliances with Africans. The wildest idea I heard was to encourage an invasion from a neighboring country, and then assist the invaders, leveraging themselves so the Afrikaaners will be placed in a better position. This also makes it much harder for the UN or other agency to simply North Korea them.

    There’s a certain level of amorality to this, and it should not be forgotten: Afrikaaners have become Africans. Different kind of African than the blacks, of course. But Africans. You become who you fight eventually.

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    • Replies: @Hyperborean

    There’s a certain level of amorality to this, and it should not be forgotten: Afrikaaners have become Africans. Different kind of African than the blacks, of course. But Africans. You become who you fight eventually.
     
    The East Indies also had people of European and Eurasian descent, who formed a separate society, but their descendants either left for Europe or assimilated into local cultures.
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  244. @Felix Keverich
    Has Iran become a "tribute country" to China, or did I miss something? His argument is bunk.

    I don't see how China's belt and road initiative could even function under such conditions.

    Iran is much less strategically important for China than Russia. Russia is China’s strategic rear and a really important 2-way gate for land-based European trade while Iran is some smaller far away land that’s not really on the urgent list for China.

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    • Replies: @Felix Keverich
    You just explained how China needs Russia a lot more than it needs Iran. But doesn't that give Russia leverage with China? Shouldn't China pay a tribute to have Russia on its side?

    I still don't see why Russia would want to accept limitations on its sovereignty and host Chinese military bases. It makes no sense, because Russia values its independence.
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  245. AP says:
    @Felix Keverich
    What would be the end goal for Russia in pursuing a rapproachment with "Intermarium"?

    Subordinating and partially cannibalising "Intermarium" would seem like a more promising approach. Especially once US is out of the picture and Western system is no more.

    What would be the end goal for Russia in pursuing a rapproachment with “Intermarium”?

    Friendly relations between neighbors generally preferable to hostile ones, assuming decent behavior by each. For both Russia and Intermarium.

    Subordinating and partially cannibalising “Intermarium” would seem like a more promising approach.

    Based on the fantasy that parts of Intermarium love Russia and want to be liberated by it, which is not the case.

    Intermarium will have about 70% of Russia’s population or 90% of Russia’s Slavic population. Not so easy to subvert and destroy.

    Especially once US is out of the picture and Western system is no more.

    Based on the fantasy that USA will collapse and disappear.

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    • Replies: @Felix Keverich

    Intermarium will have about 70% of Russia’s population or 90% of Russia’s Slavic population. Not so easy to subvert and destroy.
     
    Pretty easy once you recognise that "Intermarium" is far from a coherent entity. As a matter of fact, "Intermarium" is not even a thing, hence the scare quotes.

    fantasy that USA will collapse and disappear.
     
    As a superpower with both capability and willingness to protect "Intermarium" from Russia, it certainly will.
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  246. Sean says:
    @Felix Keverich
    I heard in Europe it's considered racist and against the law to even talk about Muslim TFR. Doubtful, that they have reliable statistics on the subject, but it has to be substantially above the native European fertility.

    No official figures by race are collected in France. There is appreciable emigration from France (and Britain) by the attainment–orientated indigenous. Emigration of the most valuable indigenous families is a thing that is too rarely brought up when future demographics are discussed in relation to economic and political forecasts. The Rivers Of Blood speech concerned indigenous emigration:

    Powell recounted a conversation with one of his constituents, a middle-aged working man, a few weeks earlier. Powell said that the man told him: “If I had the money to go, I wouldn’t stay in this country… I have three children, all of them been through grammar school and two of them married now, with family. I shan’t be satisfied till I have seen them all settled overseas.”

    A common theme by those articulating the business point of view for the future of the West is that the best elements from all over the world will come and be assimilated (with the unspoken strategy that the resultant population will not vote for Right wing parties). However, the traditional support of proletarian parties is disproportionately affected by emigration. Frank Field noted in a BBC documentary that whole families of staunch indigenous Labour supporters were leaving Britain because their areas were being transformed, as leaving takes money those are the people the country can ill afford to lose (Guardian:Why is Frank Field still an MP for the Labour party?).

    An analysis of Nazi planning documents from Architects of Annihilation: Auschwitz and the Logic of DestructionBy Gotz Aly, Susanne Heim.

    And enthroned above them was the select category of ‘genetically high grade’ persons. To qualify for this privileged status it was necessary for the ‘majority of family members’ to demonstrate a history of ‘work achievement and upward social mobility’ – rather than exhibiting any outwardly ‘Germanic’ characteristics. [...] ‘The racial selection of Letts … must not be based on one sided anthropological considerations … a selection based on the achievement principle must be carried out’.

    The ‘racial’ criteria boiled down in practice to whether people were economically valuable . And I suppose some of the opposition to closing borders against economic migrants is motivated by a desire to get the most economically valuable people (who are the ones best able to leave their country) to legally come to the West. But they forget they’ll lose a lot of the indigenous people who keep society and politics running smoothly. That is economists’ projections for you: depend on certain assumptions, and not at all robust.

    https://www.bloomberg.com/view/articles/2017-11-10/putin-s-trolling-of-the-west-is-not-just-a-tactic
    It’s tempting to describe everything he had done since the 2014 Crimea invasion as a series of reactive, opportunistic, ultimately mistaken moves. He grabbed Crimea because he could; instigated a war of secession in eastern Ukraine because it was easy; went into Syria because there was a vacuum there; ran propaganda and “active measures” campaigns in the U.K., the U.S. and other Western nations because they were unprepared for it… He influenced people and outcomes but didn’t gain any friends — in fact, he appeared to make enemies at every step.

    That, unfortunately, is likely Putin’s third long game. He doesn’t believe there’s any upside to cooperating with the West. The evolution of Putin’s views is irreversible, and Russia’s capacity to take pain is constantly underestimated. Putin clearly believes it’s higher than his Western adversaries think, and it’s not clear at this point who’s right.

    I think this is Rope-a-dope of the West (seen as overheating, and crisis-bound). There is support in Putin’s own writing for this view.

    IN Nezavisimaia Gazeta on January 23, 2012, Putin, … presented integration among states as a matter of virtue rather than achievement. The rule of law was not a universal aspiration, but part of an alien Western civilization… In Moskovskie Novosti on February 27, 2012, Putin drew the political conclusions. Putin predicted that Eurasia would overcome the European Union and bring its members into a larger entity that would extend “from Lisbon to Vladivostok.”

    If Russia is looking for great power allies in the medium tern India might be ideal; they could complement each other strategically and economically. Ultimately, China is going to frighten a lot of countries into banding together.

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    • Replies: @AquariusAnon
    Personally, I'm more of an advocate for strong Russia-South Korea and Russia-Japan relations. These should be the countries that Russia should be buying high tech equipment that it can't manufacture from. IMO Japan and Russia complement each other much better than India, if the Kurils issue can be solved.

    Hopefully Japan can spend 2-3% of the GDP on defense and actually defend itself on its own. Japan can become a great power, and the perfect partner for Russia, if this can be pulled off
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  247. valentine says:
    @Dmitry
    America is a paradise of high wages and not quite "third world dump" - as driving around there for a few days will show you. It's a rolemodel of success for any country's economic policy.

    But improvement of relations with America, will not lessen their interference in internal relations, and desire to undermine and dominate countries they see as potential rivals, simply resulting in them becoming more subtle. But it will reduce defenses to these attempts.

    China is currently pleasantly uninterested in other countries' internal affairs, as it focuses on its own economic development, and succeeding an acceptable living standard for its population (which is, for the majority, still some decades away from leaving poverty).

    Even if/when China becomes a superpower, their focus for domination will be in the direction East (to their cultural and racial cousins).

    If alliances were reduced to such simple dynamics (choosing between America and China), then China is a far more preferable choice and well behaved partner.

    Why are streets in the US worse than Mogadishu, and why are there people shooting up heroin by the traffic light? (And I am not talking about Chicago, Cleveland, Detroit, Baltimore, or some other shithole town. This is in a city considered really dynamic – not San Francisco where you have to step carefully around the human waste and needles.) And why can’t Juan and Bufanaquishria read above a fourth grade level? All forms at the hospital are being rewritten at a lower level because aren’t accommodative enough. Priorities in America are FUCKED. I hope Russia bans the US from the International Space Station so maybe the blue checkmarked subhumans will pause when they realize the only way up is to ride Rachel Maddow’s dirty strapon. NASA realizes that it’s finished if it relies on Musk’s or Bezos’s pieces of shit and the sky rains down barbecued astronaut limbs.

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  248. @Dmitry

    When Japan’s economy was booming in 1980s, there was real fear among Americans (including Trump) that Japs will take over, and look how that turned out.
     
    Japan's economy is in stagnation (at a high level) for the last 30 years. And their military power ended since 1945.

    What's interesting in recent years, is their cultural power continues to grow.

    After end of Soviet Union, there was only one dominant cultural influence in the world - the American one.

    The change for the latest generation (for people who are teenagers now) is that there are actually two dominant cultural influences - the American one, and also to lesser extent, the Japanese/South Korean one.

    It is not anymore complete American unipolar domination - already there are now two important global cultural influences or fashions (American and Japanese).

    This is pretty interesting, because you would imagine Japanese culture is too alien and language barrier is too much for (European language based nationalities), and yet Japanese still have growing cultural influence over a segment of the youth.

    What we can predict for second half of the 20th century, is a rising cultural influence potential from China. But this will not come from China until there is a lot more economic development in China, and an internal cultural renaissance, which there is no sign of yet. Currently Chinese culture is vastly less developed and attractive than the Japanese or even South Korean one.

    For a rise of Russian cultural domination, it should theoretically be easier, since language barrier is far less. Yet it is the same story as China currently - somehow not enough original new developments. The representatives of the creative class not producing an exportable culture, beyond to Russian speaking nationalities. The greatest success - Masha and Bear, only working on unimportant demographic of 5 year olds.

    I *love* Masha and the Bear! Probably more than my child.

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  249. @AP
    Very nice, I like that New York-Moscow direct flight.

    Talking about flights, my wish list would be a 3x weekly Aeroflot A330 flight to Taipei, and a daily Cathay Pacific A350 to Domodedovo. Also for both Korean Air and Japan Airlines to upgauge to 777-300ER on their Moscow flights (and still fill them up).

    And of course, a resumption of Russia-Ukraine flights, hopefully to 2013 levels.

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    • Replies: @AP
    Aeroflot didn't have limits for layovers. So I used to pay for a ticket from New York to Kiev, with a one week "layover" in Moscow. Flew to two countries for the price of one.
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  250. AP says:
    @AquariusAnon
    I wouldn't say that Russia behaved too awfully to Eastern Europe.

    Russia did make some key strategic mistakes. First of all, relying on a guy as corrupt as Yanukovich to run Ukraine was stupid. If anything, an economic-oriented, pragmatic partnership with Tymoshenko's Ukraine would've worked out better, where relations while not good more like relations with Georgia now, than the svidomy quagmire today.

    Second of all, Russia has been unable to convert its military tech to being a civilian industry powerhouse. Even Embraer managed to left Sukhoi in the dust. A civilian economy based on energy AND manufacturing, the latter of which is clearly doable given the amount of high quality military tech its producing post-Yeltsin, is much better than a civilian economy based on just energ