Discuss the recent Iranian attack (or “attack”) on the oil tankers, and the recent Iranian shootdown of the $200 million American drone (allegedly over international airspace – Iran denies it) here.
John Bolton has just packed the NSC with hardliners.
I would rate the chances of US strikes on Iran or Iranian assets within the next two weeks as substantial. If it happens, it will hopefully be confined to largely symbolic strikes on Iranian assets in Syria; however, strikes on Iranian missile sites and the Natanz nuclear enrichment facility cannot be excluded (one wonders what will win – US bunker busters or Iranian concrete).
I would put the chances of this at 50% and 25%, respectively. I realize this might seem unconscionably high, and I would even agree with that, but it’s a feeling I have watching this play out. Also, a friend of a friend with excellent contacts in the Russian MFA apparently believes that there will be an American military response. This is obviously not much to go on, so confidence is necessarily low. Still. At the end of the day, the Iran – US antagonism is sort of like the Chekhov’s gun of world geopolitics. I just have the feeling it will go off sooner or later, regardless of Greasy Willy’s insistence that it will never happen.
Speaking of Greasy (I hope he’s OK) I am amused to see that his eternal bugbear Elijah J. Magnier accepts the official US position that the tanker attacks were carried out by the Iranians.