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europe-fertility-immigration

Convenient summary h/t Ivan Vladimirov.

Ireland and Iceland look to be in the best shape. While Ireland is one of Europe’s most religious countries, Iceland is one of the least (“0% of Icelanders aged 25 or younger believe world was created by God“).

Adjusting for fertility non-EU immigrants also substantially smooths – indeed, probably almost removes – the TFR differential between Western and Eastern Europe.

Note also that in countries with a long history of immigration, such as France, there will be a still small but rapidly growing – and presumably, still higher TFR than average – demographic of non-EU ancestry that are now getting counted as “native.”

How could Russia fare in this picture? Its TFR reached a local peak of 1.78 children per woman in 2015, the year of the above survey – that’s equivalent to the native rate in France and Sweden, the two highest TFR countries other than Ireland and Iceland. Its main group of non-natives are Central Asians, who don’t appear to be reproducing much within Russia itself (since immigration tends to be temporary and dominated by males), so they wouldn’t change the figures much.

However, certain small ethnic minority groups are substantially more fertile (primarily, Chechens, Tuvans, Ingush, Dagestanis) and will make a discernible if modest statistical difference. Based on census results, there is good reason to believe that the difference between ethnic Russian and total Russian TFR is around 0.08 children per woman, so ethnic Russian TFR would have been around 1.70 in 2015 – almost exactly the same as in Latvia and Lithuania.

 
• Category: Economics • Tags: Europe, Fertility, Immigration 
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  1. So, it looks like North Africans have a far higher TFR in France than at home (where they are mostly at around replacement levels).

    Read More
    • Replies: @AP
    Better benefits and/or income opportunities. TFR of Poles in western Europe is also higher than in Poland itself.
    , @Erik Sieven
    I guess North Africans also don't have a TFR of 3.3. This high immigrant TFR is much likely due to Subsaharan Africans in France.
    , @notanon
    also age profile

    immigrants are often disproportionately peak fertile years
    ReplyAgree/Disagree/Etc. More... This Commenter This Thread Hide Thread Display All Comments
  2. A lot of the EU born in places like Ireland (EU-born TFR 2.03) are young Poles and Balts.

    Read More
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  3. @jimmyriddle
    So, it looks like North Africans have a far higher TFR in France than at home (where they are mostly at around replacement levels).

    Better benefits and/or income opportunities. TFR of Poles in western Europe is also higher than in Poland itself.

    Read More
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  4. The figures for France are catastrophic. Makes you wonder if France is almost as far gone as America is.

    If the sickle cell anemia ethnic data are accurate then blacks and mohammedans will outnumber the French in the Parisian Region, Picardy, Artois, and other rustbelt regions in rapid order.

    Marseilles as well, though most of the South of France (why isn’t it southern France?) will remain a veritable whitopia.

    Read More
    • Replies: @LondonBob
    No question France is in the worst shape in Europe, still not US levels though. I don't know how they deal with non Metropolitan France either.
    , @AP

    The figures for France are catastrophic. Makes you wonder if France is almost as far gone as America is.
     
    Situations aren't comparable, because comparing Muslims and Africans to Mexicans is absurd.
    ReplyAgree/Disagree/Etc. More... This Commenter This Thread Hide Thread Display All Comments
  5. Note also that in countries with a long history of immigration, such as France, there will be a still small but rapidly growing – and presumably, still higher TFR than average – demographic of non-EU ancestry that are now getting counted as “native.”

    So at least in Britan and France the situation is certainly even worse than the numbers above suggest.
    And since those numbers are from 2015, the situation in Germany will also have significantly deteriorated by now.

    Read More
    • Replies: @Pumblechook
    The stats are publicly released for the uk (although it is more specific at the England and Wales level):

    England and Wales have combined in 2016:
    - 61% native white births (brits)
    - 11% other white (poles, Italians etc)
    - approx 8-9% south Asian
    - approx 10% other (mixed, Arab, Chinese)
    - approx 5-6% black
    - approx 2-3% unrecorded (apparently a good number of these are white British)

    For Scotland it is realistically around 90% white births and Northern Ireland is around 96%

    In total, the U.K. realistically had 75% white births in 2016. If you are optimistic you add one or two more percentage points to take into account the large numbers of 'mixed' people who are European in appearance and behaviour (like many of the Anglo-Indians I know)
    ReplyAgree/Disagree/Etc. More... This Commenter This Thread Hide Thread Display All Comments
  6. @Thorfinnsson
    The figures for France are catastrophic. Makes you wonder if France is almost as far gone as America is.

    If the sickle cell anemia ethnic data are accurate then blacks and mohammedans will outnumber the French in the Parisian Region, Picardy, Artois, and other rustbelt regions in rapid order.

    Marseilles as well, though most of the South of France (why isn't it southern France?) will remain a veritable whitopia.

    No question France is in the worst shape in Europe, still not US levels though. I don’t know how they deal with non Metropolitan France either.

    Read More
    • Replies: @Dmitry

    No question France is in the worst shape in Europe, still not US levels though.

     

    The situation of national minorities relative to the majority in the United States is going to level off (at least in terms of fertility rates).

    The relative population of African Americans in the United States has been slightly falling, and the total fertility of African American women is now 0.1 below replacement rate.

    The Latino American (Spanish speaking US citizens') total fertility rate is still significantly above replacement rate, but it is plummeting at a very rapid rate. It will probably crash below replacement rate within next decade.

    The issue then is tightening immigration policy.

    ReplyAgree/Disagree/Etc. More... This Commenter This Thread Hide Thread Display All Comments
  7. between ethnic Russian and total Russian TFR is around 0.08 children per woman, so ethnic Russian TFR would have been around 1.70 in 2015 – almost exactly the same as in Latvia and Lithuania.

    Thanks – I think I asked about this earlier.

    Fertility rates are clustering geographically/culturally/ethnically – and across different governments (the closest peoples with the same rates – Russians, Lithuanians, Latvians, Belarusians – with just Ukrainians 0.1 lower) – i.e. without much evidence of any impact on fertility rates occurring from government policy.

    Read More
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  8. @LondonBob
    No question France is in the worst shape in Europe, still not US levels though. I don't know how they deal with non Metropolitan France either.

    No question France is in the worst shape in Europe, still not US levels though.

    The situation of national minorities relative to the majority in the United States is going to level off (at least in terms of fertility rates).

    The relative population of African Americans in the United States has been slightly falling, and the total fertility of African American women is now 0.1 below replacement rate.

    The Latino American (Spanish speaking US citizens’) total fertility rate is still significantly above replacement rate, but it is plummeting at a very rapid rate. It will probably crash below replacement rate within next decade.

    The issue then is tightening immigration policy.

    Read More
    • Replies: @LondonBob
    Political situation is far worse in the US. Even with Trump and control of both houses changes can't be made to leal immigration, let alone ending birthright citizenship, even if Trump is able to stem some illegal flows. Add in that the boomers are starting to die off and then electoral map will change quick with Texas set flip fast when it does. The US also lacks a blood and soil identity.

    Anyway I expect things won't resolve themselves peacefully through the political system anyway.
    ReplyAgree/Disagree/Etc. More... This Commenter This Thread Hide Thread Display All Comments
  9. @Thorfinnsson
    The figures for France are catastrophic. Makes you wonder if France is almost as far gone as America is.

    If the sickle cell anemia ethnic data are accurate then blacks and mohammedans will outnumber the French in the Parisian Region, Picardy, Artois, and other rustbelt regions in rapid order.

    Marseilles as well, though most of the South of France (why isn't it southern France?) will remain a veritable whitopia.

    The figures for France are catastrophic. Makes you wonder if France is almost as far gone as America is.

    Situations aren’t comparable, because comparing Muslims and Africans to Mexicans is absurd.

    Read More
    • Replies: @neutral

    Situations aren’t comparable, because comparing Muslims and Africans to Mexicans is absurd.
     
    Mexico may be preferable to African countries, but what does it matter who in the end replaces the whites, its still a catastrophe.
    , @Thorfinnsson
    Sure--Mohammedans are outright dangerous and one can't live with Africans.

    Mexicans are just vaguely crappy and ugly. They reduce the quality of the country but don't threaten its existence or make it unlivable.

    But an increased threat produces an increased immune response.
    ReplyAgree/Disagree/Etc. More... This Commenter This Thread Hide Thread Display All Comments
  10. @jimmyriddle
    So, it looks like North Africans have a far higher TFR in France than at home (where they are mostly at around replacement levels).

    I guess North Africans also don’t have a TFR of 3.3. This high immigrant TFR is much likely due to Subsaharan Africans in France.

    Read More
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  11. @Dmitry

    No question France is in the worst shape in Europe, still not US levels though.

     

    The situation of national minorities relative to the majority in the United States is going to level off (at least in terms of fertility rates).

    The relative population of African Americans in the United States has been slightly falling, and the total fertility of African American women is now 0.1 below replacement rate.

    The Latino American (Spanish speaking US citizens') total fertility rate is still significantly above replacement rate, but it is plummeting at a very rapid rate. It will probably crash below replacement rate within next decade.

    The issue then is tightening immigration policy.

    Political situation is far worse in the US. Even with Trump and control of both houses changes can’t be made to leal immigration, let alone ending birthright citizenship, even if Trump is able to stem some illegal flows. Add in that the boomers are starting to die off and then electoral map will change quick with Texas set flip fast when it does. The US also lacks a blood and soil identity.

    Anyway I expect things won’t resolve themselves peacefully through the political system anyway.

    Read More
    • Replies: @Dmitry
    Latino population growth in the US (across 2007-2016) fell to 2.7% a year, from 4.4% a year (across 2000-2007).

    http://www.pewhispanic.org/2016/09/08/latino-population-growth-and-dispersion-has-slowed-since-the-onset-of-the-great-recession/

    If the falling trend continues, then Latino share of the population should stabilize over next decade (total population growth in the US is 0.7% a year).

    African American share of the population is starting to fall.

    So if immigration policy is tightened - it will likely see that share of traditional majority population to the minority nationalities is stabilizing (albeit at the current high share of the former relative to the latter) and will remain more or less the same in the future.

    , @Seth Largo
    Taco trucks on every corner vs. barricades on every corner. Loud mariachi music vs. loud bombs. Latinas in short skirts vs. niqqabs.

    I think we'll be okay.
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  12. Interesting collection of numbers:

    Raw number of births in each country 2014:

    http://datatowel.in.ua/posts/3460

    France and UK each surpass Germany. So does Argentina.

    Poland + Ukraine surpass Germany (and France, and UK). And almost all of the births in the former two countries are European Christians.

    Russia 4 times more births than Ukraine (or course, Ukraine is almost all European Christian, Russia is not).

    Iran with 1.5 million approaches Russia with 1.94 million.

    Subsaharan Africa dwarfs everyone. Ethiopia has 3 million births to Russia’s 1.94 million. Nigeria – 6.9 million.

    Read More
    • Replies: @Anatoly Karlin
    Absolute number of births * life expectancy = eventual "steady state" population

    (assuming indicators remain constant, which they ofc don't, but it's a useful rule of thumb for thinking about these things)
    ReplyAgree/Disagree/Etc. More... This Commenter This Thread Hide Thread Display All Comments
  13. @LondonBob
    Political situation is far worse in the US. Even with Trump and control of both houses changes can't be made to leal immigration, let alone ending birthright citizenship, even if Trump is able to stem some illegal flows. Add in that the boomers are starting to die off and then electoral map will change quick with Texas set flip fast when it does. The US also lacks a blood and soil identity.

    Anyway I expect things won't resolve themselves peacefully through the political system anyway.

    Latino population growth in the US (across 2007-2016) fell to 2.7% a year, from 4.4% a year (across 2000-2007).

    http://www.pewhispanic.org/2016/09/08/latino-population-growth-and-dispersion-has-slowed-since-the-onset-of-the-great-recession/

    If the falling trend continues, then Latino share of the population should stabilize over next decade (total population growth in the US is 0.7% a year).

    African American share of the population is starting to fall.

    So if immigration policy is tightened – it will likely see that share of traditional majority population to the minority nationalities is stabilizing (albeit at the current high share of the former relative to the latter) and will remain more or less the same in the future.

    Read More
    ReplyAgree/Disagree/Etc. More... This Commenter This Thread Hide Thread Display All Comments
  14. @AP

    The figures for France are catastrophic. Makes you wonder if France is almost as far gone as America is.
     
    Situations aren't comparable, because comparing Muslims and Africans to Mexicans is absurd.

    Situations aren’t comparable, because comparing Muslims and Africans to Mexicans is absurd.

    Mexico may be preferable to African countries, but what does it matter who in the end replaces the whites, its still a catastrophe.

    Read More
    • Replies: @AP
    Mexicans are themselves 40%-50% European by descent, speak a European language, and have a European religion. They also tend to assimilate into American society, though not as much as do other groups, rather than vice versa. They tend to bring corruption and poverty, are noisy, but it's orders of magnitude a different and less bad situation than being swamped by Muslims or Africans.
    ReplyAgree/Disagree/Etc. More... This Commenter This Thread Hide Thread Display All Comments
  15. @AP
    Interesting collection of numbers:

    Raw number of births in each country 2014:

    http://datatowel.in.ua/posts/3460

    France and UK each surpass Germany. So does Argentina.

    Poland + Ukraine surpass Germany (and France, and UK). And almost all of the births in the former two countries are European Christians.

    Russia 4 times more births than Ukraine (or course, Ukraine is almost all European Christian, Russia is not).

    Iran with 1.5 million approaches Russia with 1.94 million.

    Subsaharan Africa dwarfs everyone. Ethiopia has 3 million births to Russia's 1.94 million. Nigeria - 6.9 million.

    Absolute number of births * life expectancy = eventual “steady state” population

    (assuming indicators remain constant, which they ofc don’t, but it’s a useful rule of thumb for thinking about these things)

    Read More
    • Replies: @AP
    So without taking into account further migration, were are looking at a steady state population of about 137 million people in Russia (many of whom aren't ethnic Slavs), 116 million in Iran, 64 million people in France (many of whom aren't ethnic French), 60 million people in Germany (many of whom aren't ethnic Germans), 33 million people in Ukraine (almost all Ukrainians or Russians), 29 million people in Poland (almost all Poles or Ukrainians).

    Western Europe is basically finished as a player of any significance on the world stage.

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  16. @neutral

    Situations aren’t comparable, because comparing Muslims and Africans to Mexicans is absurd.
     
    Mexico may be preferable to African countries, but what does it matter who in the end replaces the whites, its still a catastrophe.

    Mexicans are themselves 40%-50% European by descent, speak a European language, and have a European religion. They also tend to assimilate into American society, though not as much as do other groups, rather than vice versa. They tend to bring corruption and poverty, are noisy, but it’s orders of magnitude a different and less bad situation than being swamped by Muslims or Africans.

    Read More
    ReplyAgree/Disagree/Etc. More... This Commenter This Thread Hide Thread Display All Comments
  17. @Anatoly Karlin
    Absolute number of births * life expectancy = eventual "steady state" population

    (assuming indicators remain constant, which they ofc don't, but it's a useful rule of thumb for thinking about these things)

    So without taking into account further migration, were are looking at a steady state population of about 137 million people in Russia (many of whom aren’t ethnic Slavs), 116 million in Iran, 64 million people in France (many of whom aren’t ethnic French), 60 million people in Germany (many of whom aren’t ethnic Germans), 33 million people in Ukraine (almost all Ukrainians or Russians), 29 million people in Poland (almost all Poles or Ukrainians).

    Western Europe is basically finished as a player of any significance on the world stage.

    Read More
    • Replies: @Mitleser

    29 million people in Poland (almost all Poles or Ukrainians).
     
    Unlikely. Poland is getting wealthier and freedom of movement means that it is will be open to immigration.
    , @RadicalCenter
    Agreed.
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  18. @German_reader

    Note also that in countries with a long history of immigration, such as France, there will be a still small but rapidly growing – and presumably, still higher TFR than average – demographic of non-EU ancestry that are now getting counted as “native.”
     
    So at least in Britan and France the situation is certainly even worse than the numbers above suggest.
    And since those numbers are from 2015, the situation in Germany will also have significantly deteriorated by now.

    The stats are publicly released for the uk (although it is more specific at the England and Wales level):

    England and Wales have combined in 2016:
    - 61% native white births (brits)
    - 11% other white (poles, Italians etc)
    - approx 8-9% south Asian
    - approx 10% other (mixed, Arab, Chinese)
    - approx 5-6% black
    - approx 2-3% unrecorded (apparently a good number of these are white British)

    For Scotland it is realistically around 90% white births and Northern Ireland is around 96%

    In total, the U.K. realistically had 75% white births in 2016. If you are optimistic you add one or two more percentage points to take into account the large numbers of ‘mixed’ people who are European in appearance and behaviour (like many of the Anglo-Indians I know)

    Read More
    • Replies: @DFH

    If you are optimistic you add one or two more percentage points to take into account the large numbers of ‘mixed’ people who are European in appearance and behaviour (like many of the Anglo-Indians I know)
     
    Anglo-Indians are still obviously non-white in appearance.
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  19. That’s OK – behold this historical video…when the machines come to kill us all they will point to this punk-bastard behavior:

    Remember, it all started with a hockey stick…

    Read More
    • Replies: @Dmitry
    Something a little frightening about its unperturbed determination to execute the mission.
    , @Mitleser
    MFW

    http://i.dailymail.co.uk/i/pix/2017/12/29/19/47A0993700000578-5221579-image-m-31_1514574625780.jpg
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  20. Religion is about having children – that is how religions have historically developed. Religion is an evolutionary tool that helps tribes or societies to go on, mainly by having stable families with children.

    When societies reach certain level of development, religion gets conflated with faith or a lack of faith, in effect with philosophy. People start overthinking it. They get too worked up about what to believe and forget that we have religions not for philosophical discussions, but to assure that people form stable families and have children. It is not that natural to raise children when one thinks about it too much. The quickest way to improve society’s welfare, its level of effective consumption, is to ignore future, forgo next generation, and simply consume. Once that dynamic kicks in, it is difficult to change it. That’s why the latest Pope with his meandering liberalism is such a disaster. He is making an already bad situation worse.

    It happened in the ancient world, and it has started to happen again in Europe in the late 20th century. To reverse it we would have to consciously go back to some sort of societal religion. That is hard because most available religious systems are poorly thought out for rational people. Maybe stable, decreasing populations, with strict control on the Third World immigration is the best we can hope for. (Or get out there and start procreating, that low TFR won’t fix itself!)

    Read More
    • Replies: @Talha
    This is what Edward Dutton of came to conclude:
    "ATHEISTS MORE INTELLIGENT BECAUSE THEY CAN OVERRIDE 'INSTINCTIVE' RELIGIOUS BELIEFS—BUT IT WILL BE THEIR DOWNFALL"
    http://www.newsweek.com/atheism-intelligence-religion-evolution-instinct-natural-selection-610982

    "He says: 'Maybe the positive relationship between religiousness and health is not causal—it's not that being religious makes you less stressed so less ill. Rather, religious people are a genetically normal remnant population from preindustrial times, and the rest of us are mutants who'd have died as children back then.'...Dutton explains: 'We will be taken over by a more religious society which is more ethnocentric than us. In that our intelligence is decreasing, I suspect civilization will go backwards, Natural selection will return and we will become more religious once more. This seems to be a rule of history.'"
    http://www.newsweek.com/religion-healthy-atheism-mutant-genes-756984

    Peace.
    , @German_reader

    Religion is about having children
     
    Not necessarily true, there were strong ascetic traditions in Christianity after all whose fundamental goal was to escape evolutionary pressures; marriage and procreation was supposed to be a concession to the weak, and in the middle ages monks and nuns were held in the highest regard.
    Agree with you that most religious systems are pretty weak as coherent systems of thought in the modern world; some vague Deism might still be acceptable though.
    , @Dmitry

    Religion is about having children – that is how religions have historically developed. Religion is an evolutionary tool that helps tribes or societies to go on, mainly by having stable families with children.

     

    The important and positive element in religion (or our religious impulse) is stoicism, asceticism and metaphysics. This is the mysticism trend which is cultivated in certain religious traditions - and described by writers like Aldous Huxley.

    The other part of religion is, how it leaves the opening for cult-leaders to brainwash their flocks into conformity, taking advantage of the vulnerability in our herd-like instincts, and this is what Marx simplistically reduced religion to as 'opium of the masses'.

    Most religions contain both of these elements in various mixes - even in Islam, there is, for example, the Sufi tradition.

    , @polskijoe
    The whole worlds fertility rates are dropping.

    Average was 5 kids. 1960.
    Now its 2.5 kids. 2015.

    You need massive culture change in the West, and get those scum leaders out or change their minds.
    I think condoms, birth control, feminism, and pornography are the biggest reasons for problems.
    Also people are lazier, more depressed, people fatter, etc.
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  21. @Pumblechook
    The stats are publicly released for the uk (although it is more specific at the England and Wales level):

    England and Wales have combined in 2016:
    - 61% native white births (brits)
    - 11% other white (poles, Italians etc)
    - approx 8-9% south Asian
    - approx 10% other (mixed, Arab, Chinese)
    - approx 5-6% black
    - approx 2-3% unrecorded (apparently a good number of these are white British)

    For Scotland it is realistically around 90% white births and Northern Ireland is around 96%

    In total, the U.K. realistically had 75% white births in 2016. If you are optimistic you add one or two more percentage points to take into account the large numbers of 'mixed' people who are European in appearance and behaviour (like many of the Anglo-Indians I know)

    If you are optimistic you add one or two more percentage points to take into account the large numbers of ‘mixed’ people who are European in appearance and behaviour (like many of the Anglo-Indians I know)

    Anglo-Indians are still obviously non-white in appearance.

    Read More
    • Agree: RadicalCenter
    • Replies: @Pumblechook
    You don't know what you're talking about - I have friends in this category who are usually taken as Portuguese or Italian. Think Rhona Mitra. And those are only the half-euros. There are 'mixed' people in the U.K. Like Ross Barkley who is 25% Nigerian but you would never know unless told.
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  22. @AP

    The figures for France are catastrophic. Makes you wonder if France is almost as far gone as America is.
     
    Situations aren't comparable, because comparing Muslims and Africans to Mexicans is absurd.

    Sure–Mohammedans are outright dangerous and one can’t live with Africans.

    Mexicans are just vaguely crappy and ugly. They reduce the quality of the country but don’t threaten its existence or make it unlivable.

    But an increased threat produces an increased immune response.

    Read More
    ReplyAgree/Disagree/Etc. More... This Commenter This Thread Hide Thread Display All Comments
  23. @Talha
    That's OK - behold this historical video...when the machines come to kill us all they will point to this punk-bastard behavior:
    https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=aFuA50H9uek

    Remember, it all started with a hockey stick...

    Something a little frightening about its unperturbed determination to execute the mission.

    Read More
    • Replies: @Talha
    Exactly...it's a little zombie/terminator-like in that sense.

    The weird thing for me was - I watched it a couple of times and felt upset. Like, why is that jerk with a hockey stick beating that poor thing up? But - it's a frickin' machine - it's no different (metaphysically) than a pile of metal bars. But its association with the body of an animal brought out an instinctive response - it was like I was watching some guy beat a sheep around or something.

    Wonder if anyone else had similar reactions...

    Peace.
    ReplyAgree/Disagree/Etc. More... This Commenter This Thread Hide Thread Display All Comments
  24. @Beckow
    Religion is about having children - that is how religions have historically developed. Religion is an evolutionary tool that helps tribes or societies to go on, mainly by having stable families with children.

    When societies reach certain level of development, religion gets conflated with faith or a lack of faith, in effect with philosophy. People start overthinking it. They get too worked up about what to believe and forget that we have religions not for philosophical discussions, but to assure that people form stable families and have children. It is not that natural to raise children when one thinks about it too much. The quickest way to improve society's welfare, its level of effective consumption, is to ignore future, forgo next generation, and simply consume. Once that dynamic kicks in, it is difficult to change it. That's why the latest Pope with his meandering liberalism is such a disaster. He is making an already bad situation worse.

    It happened in the ancient world, and it has started to happen again in Europe in the late 20th century. To reverse it we would have to consciously go back to some sort of societal religion. That is hard because most available religious systems are poorly thought out for rational people. Maybe stable, decreasing populations, with strict control on the Third World immigration is the best we can hope for. (Or get out there and start procreating, that low TFR won't fix itself!)

    This is what Edward Dutton of came to conclude:
    “ATHEISTS MORE INTELLIGENT BECAUSE THEY CAN OVERRIDE ‘INSTINCTIVE’ RELIGIOUS BELIEFS—BUT IT WILL BE THEIR DOWNFALL”

    http://www.newsweek.com/atheism-intelligence-religion-evolution-instinct-natural-selection-610982

    “He says: ‘Maybe the positive relationship between religiousness and health is not causal—it’s not that being religious makes you less stressed so less ill. Rather, religious people are a genetically normal remnant population from preindustrial times, and the rest of us are mutants who’d have died as children back then.’…Dutton explains: ‘We will be taken over by a more religious society which is more ethnocentric than us. In that our intelligence is decreasing, I suspect civilization will go backwards, Natural selection will return and we will become more religious once more. This seems to be a rule of history.’”

    http://www.newsweek.com/religion-healthy-atheism-mutant-genes-756984

    Peace.

    Read More
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  25. Actually, TFR of many Eastern European countries is inflated by one minority. Gypsies. For now they are relatively low in share of the population (except Bulgaria). But have at least twice the fertility (the less functional the more fertile) of natives.
    I can see it in my own country (CZ).
    Just today in the radio, during an interview (tangential to this topic), they mentioned that number of “excluded localities” have doubled in just 10 years (!), as well as associated welfare expenses. In other unrelated interview, it was mentioned that number of pupils who failed to finish elementary education have doubled in roughly the same timeline.
    You can do your math yourself (exponential function).
    Luckily, Poland is spared this fate so far. So there is at least some hope.

    Read More
    • Replies: @AP
    Could the lack of gypsies explain Poland's lower fertility relative to that of other countries in central Europe? Maybe TFR of ethnic poles is no different from that of Hungarians, Romanians, Slovaks?
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  26. @Beckow
    Religion is about having children - that is how religions have historically developed. Religion is an evolutionary tool that helps tribes or societies to go on, mainly by having stable families with children.

    When societies reach certain level of development, religion gets conflated with faith or a lack of faith, in effect with philosophy. People start overthinking it. They get too worked up about what to believe and forget that we have religions not for philosophical discussions, but to assure that people form stable families and have children. It is not that natural to raise children when one thinks about it too much. The quickest way to improve society's welfare, its level of effective consumption, is to ignore future, forgo next generation, and simply consume. Once that dynamic kicks in, it is difficult to change it. That's why the latest Pope with his meandering liberalism is such a disaster. He is making an already bad situation worse.

    It happened in the ancient world, and it has started to happen again in Europe in the late 20th century. To reverse it we would have to consciously go back to some sort of societal religion. That is hard because most available religious systems are poorly thought out for rational people. Maybe stable, decreasing populations, with strict control on the Third World immigration is the best we can hope for. (Or get out there and start procreating, that low TFR won't fix itself!)

    Religion is about having children

    Not necessarily true, there were strong ascetic traditions in Christianity after all whose fundamental goal was to escape evolutionary pressures; marriage and procreation was supposed to be a concession to the weak, and in the middle ages monks and nuns were held in the highest regard.
    Agree with you that most religious systems are pretty weak as coherent systems of thought in the modern world; some vague Deism might still be acceptable though.

    Read More
    • Replies: @Beckow

    there were strong ascetic traditions in Christianity after all whose fundamental goal was to escape evolutionary pressures; marriage and procreation was supposed to be a concession to the weak
     
    True, and they loom large when we look back. And yet they were not the core form of Christianity for most people, that was the patient, accepting, continuos family life. The evolutionary value of religion is in that it promotes having children in a stable family. Religion is 'rules that tie society together' (its Latin etymology).

    When we slowly acquired conscious existence as humans, it led to the possibility of nihilism. Animals cannot experience nihilism, they just do stuff and pro-create because they have no choice. But having speech, verbal ability and abstract thoughts were mentally potentially destabilising. So successful groups evolved religious rules to minimise nihilistic behaviours like 'after me deluge' and 'do what feels good'. Today many groups have lost it and the consequences are not that great.

    I am not talking about religion as philosophy, that was a luxury. Asceticism is interesting as an exception that highlights what was the universal rule for most people. Religion as evolutionary adaption was not about philosophy, nor about ascetic escapism - it was about having children and raising them in stable families. We have lost that; our ancestors feared 'chaos', this is how chaos and nihilism feel. Are we having fun?

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  27. @DFH

    If you are optimistic you add one or two more percentage points to take into account the large numbers of ‘mixed’ people who are European in appearance and behaviour (like many of the Anglo-Indians I know)
     
    Anglo-Indians are still obviously non-white in appearance.

    You don’t know what you’re talking about – I have friends in this category who are usually taken as Portuguese or Italian. Think Rhona Mitra. And those are only the half-euros. There are ‘mixed’ people in the U.K. Like Ross Barkley who is 25% Nigerian but you would never know unless told.

    Read More
    • Replies: @DFH

    You don’t know what you’re talking about
     
    Actually I do. I grew up in London and knew plenty of half-Indian half-whites, I even had a half-Indian gf when I was a younger. All of them (even two-half parsis) were clearly non-white, not just because of the darker skin but also because of the facial structure.
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  28. @Dmitry
    Something a little frightening about its unperturbed determination to execute the mission.

    Exactly…it’s a little zombie/terminator-like in that sense.

    The weird thing for me was – I watched it a couple of times and felt upset. Like, why is that jerk with a hockey stick beating that poor thing up? But – it’s a frickin’ machine – it’s no different (metaphysically) than a pile of metal bars. But its association with the body of an animal brought out an instinctive response – it was like I was watching some guy beat a sheep around or something.

    Wonder if anyone else had similar reactions…

    Peace.

    Read More
    • Replies: @Hippopotamusdrome, @The Big Red Scary
    I've been following Boston Dynamics for a few years and I have the same reaction. And my daughter was even worse when she first saw these videos, declaring that she was going to throw the dude with the hockey stick into the rubbish.
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  29. @Pumblechook
    You don't know what you're talking about - I have friends in this category who are usually taken as Portuguese or Italian. Think Rhona Mitra. And those are only the half-euros. There are 'mixed' people in the U.K. Like Ross Barkley who is 25% Nigerian but you would never know unless told.

    You don’t know what you’re talking about

    Actually I do. I grew up in London and knew plenty of half-Indian half-whites, I even had a half-Indian gf when I was a younger. All of them (even two-half parsis) were clearly non-white, not just because of the darker skin but also because of the facial structure.

    Read More
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  30. @Beckow
    Religion is about having children - that is how religions have historically developed. Religion is an evolutionary tool that helps tribes or societies to go on, mainly by having stable families with children.

    When societies reach certain level of development, religion gets conflated with faith or a lack of faith, in effect with philosophy. People start overthinking it. They get too worked up about what to believe and forget that we have religions not for philosophical discussions, but to assure that people form stable families and have children. It is not that natural to raise children when one thinks about it too much. The quickest way to improve society's welfare, its level of effective consumption, is to ignore future, forgo next generation, and simply consume. Once that dynamic kicks in, it is difficult to change it. That's why the latest Pope with his meandering liberalism is such a disaster. He is making an already bad situation worse.

    It happened in the ancient world, and it has started to happen again in Europe in the late 20th century. To reverse it we would have to consciously go back to some sort of societal religion. That is hard because most available religious systems are poorly thought out for rational people. Maybe stable, decreasing populations, with strict control on the Third World immigration is the best we can hope for. (Or get out there and start procreating, that low TFR won't fix itself!)

    Religion is about having children – that is how religions have historically developed. Religion is an evolutionary tool that helps tribes or societies to go on, mainly by having stable families with children.

    The important and positive element in religion (or our religious impulse) is stoicism, asceticism and metaphysics. This is the mysticism trend which is cultivated in certain religious traditions – and described by writers like Aldous Huxley.

    The other part of religion is, how it leaves the opening for cult-leaders to brainwash their flocks into conformity, taking advantage of the vulnerability in our herd-like instincts, and this is what Marx simplistically reduced religion to as ‘opium of the masses’.

    Most religions contain both of these elements in various mixes – even in Islam, there is, for example, the Sufi tradition.

    Read More
    • Replies: @RadicalCenter
    Islam is not ascetic. At all.
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  31. : Do you have a source for the 40-50% Europeans figure for Mexicans?

    Also, what is interesting is that U.S. Hispanics perform about as well as Greeks do on PISA:

    https://isteve.blogspot.com/2013/12/overall-pisa-rankings-include-america.html

    Their performance looks bad in large part due to the fact that U.S. Whites perform very well even in comparison to some other White countries.

    In addition to this, I wonder what the genetic ceiling for European Muslims is. Would it be similar to the Greek/Hispanic level if they were well-nourished and stopped engaging in cousin marriage?

    Also, I agree that it is undesirable to have a lot of crime-prone people in one’s country. That said, though, I wonder how much European Muslims’ propensity to engage in crime and target civilians is genetic versus environmental. After all, it’s certainly not like some Europeans–such as some Balts and Ukrainians–werenot as savage as Muslim terrorists are today. Indeed, all one has to do is take a look at the behavior of some Balts and Ukrainians during the Holocaust to see how even “civilized” Christian Europeans can descend to levels of barbarity similar to those of Muslim terrorists in the 21st century.

    Read More
    • Replies: @German_reader
    Muslims in Europe aren't really homogenous, you'd have to differentiate between countries of origin and probably other factors as well. Turks, Moroccans, Pakistanis, Somalis...genetically and even culturally these are quite different groups.
    , @AP

    : Do you have a source for the 40-50% Europeans figure for Mexicans?
     
    http://journals.plos.org/plosone/article?id=10.1371/journal.pone.0141260

    "Participants were randomly selected among individuals residing in the Houston area who are enrolled in the Mexican-American Cohort study. Using a custom Illumina GoldenGate Panel, we genotyped DNA from 4,662 cohort participants for 87 Ancestry-Informative Markers. On average, the participants were of 50.2% Native American ancestry, 42.7% European ancestry and 7.1% African ancestry."

    There are other studies, the European percentage of Mestizos (the Mexicans most likely to emigrate to the USA) is generally in the 40% - 50% range, closer to 40%. Mexicans who marry whites have children that often look white.

    Of course, the Euro heritage of Mexicans is Mediterranean, not Anglo Saxon, so rather different from America's traditional Anglo culture.

    Indeed, all one has to do is take a look at the behavior of some Balts and Ukrainians during the Holocaust to see how even “civilized” Christian Europeans can descend to levels of barbarity similar to those of Muslim terrorists in the 21st century.

     

    Or the Germans and the Japanese.

    There is a difference between tribal violence and day to day criminal violence. Western Ukraine, where people brutally slaughtered a lot of Poles and Jews, has the lowest homicide rate in the Slavic former USSR. The Balkan countries, known for tribal brutality, also have low homicide rates.
    , @reiner Tor

    the behavior of some Balts and Ukrainians during the Holocaust to see how even “civilized” Christian Europeans can descend to levels of barbarity
     
    That’s a very bad argument. First, it conflates organized and interpersonal violence under the lazy term “barbarity.” Those are two very different things. Organized violence is something high trust high IQ societies are better at. Interpersonal violence is something which low IQ low trust societies engage in.

    Then there’s the issue that it was actually organized by the Germans, one of the highest IQ highest trust societies ever. The “spontaneous” pogroms by the Ukrainians and Lithuanians were anything but.
    , @Hippopotamusdrome
    Balts and Ukrainians aren't White.


    Saturday Night Live Transcripts
    Season 14: Episode 3 [1988]
    88c: John Larroquette / Randy Newman
    Vote Bush III
    [ show each President's head encircled over a North European country ]
    Announcer: Franklin Delano Roosevelt was of white northern European heritage.
    Thomas Jefferson was of white northern European heritage.
    John F. Kennedy was of white northern European heritage.
    George Herbert Walker Bush is of white northern European heritage.
    [ show Dukakis' encircled just above the Mediterranean Sea ]
    But Michael Dukakis?
    Bush. He's whiter.
    [ SUPER: "Bush. He's Whiter." ]

     

    , @Anatoly Karlin

    In addition to this, I wonder what the genetic ceiling for European Muslims is.

     

    I suspect low 90s.

    That said, though, I wonder how much European Muslims’ propensity to engage in crime and target civilians is genetic versus environmental.
     
    Probably largely environmental - criminality increases by an order of magnitude when an Algerian moves from Algeria to France or Germany.
    , @notanon

    I wonder how much European Muslims’ propensity to engage in crime and target civilians is genetic versus environmental.
     
    clearly both

    a genetic base which their own culture evolved to compensate for - remove the cultural restraints and the genetics come to the fore

    for example a population who will gladly rape the women and children of non relatives that happen tp stray into the wrong neighborhood -> culture of keeping women and children locked away. if you transfer those genetics to a culture which doesn't lock their women and children away -> mass child rape.
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  32. @Mr. XYZ
    @AP: Do you have a source for the 40-50% Europeans figure for Mexicans?

    Also, what is interesting is that U.S. Hispanics perform about as well as Greeks do on PISA:

    https://isteve.blogspot.com/2013/12/overall-pisa-rankings-include-america.html

    Their performance looks bad in large part due to the fact that U.S. Whites perform very well even in comparison to some other White countries.

    In addition to this, I wonder what the genetic ceiling for European Muslims is. Would it be similar to the Greek/Hispanic level if they were well-nourished and stopped engaging in cousin marriage?

    Also, I agree that it is undesirable to have a lot of crime-prone people in one's country. That said, though, I wonder how much European Muslims' propensity to engage in crime and target civilians is genetic versus environmental. After all, it's certainly not like some Europeans--such as some Balts and Ukrainians--werenot as savage as Muslim terrorists are today. Indeed, all one has to do is take a look at the behavior of some Balts and Ukrainians during the Holocaust to see how even "civilized" Christian Europeans can descend to levels of barbarity similar to those of Muslim terrorists in the 21st century.

    Muslims in Europe aren’t really homogenous, you’d have to differentiate between countries of origin and probably other factors as well. Turks, Moroccans, Pakistanis, Somalis…genetically and even culturally these are quite different groups.

    Read More
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  33. @jimmyriddle
    So, it looks like North Africans have a far higher TFR in France than at home (where they are mostly at around replacement levels).

    also age profile

    immigrants are often disproportionately peak fertile years

    Read More
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  34. @Mr. XYZ
    @AP: Do you have a source for the 40-50% Europeans figure for Mexicans?

    Also, what is interesting is that U.S. Hispanics perform about as well as Greeks do on PISA:

    https://isteve.blogspot.com/2013/12/overall-pisa-rankings-include-america.html

    Their performance looks bad in large part due to the fact that U.S. Whites perform very well even in comparison to some other White countries.

    In addition to this, I wonder what the genetic ceiling for European Muslims is. Would it be similar to the Greek/Hispanic level if they were well-nourished and stopped engaging in cousin marriage?

    Also, I agree that it is undesirable to have a lot of crime-prone people in one's country. That said, though, I wonder how much European Muslims' propensity to engage in crime and target civilians is genetic versus environmental. After all, it's certainly not like some Europeans--such as some Balts and Ukrainians--werenot as savage as Muslim terrorists are today. Indeed, all one has to do is take a look at the behavior of some Balts and Ukrainians during the Holocaust to see how even "civilized" Christian Europeans can descend to levels of barbarity similar to those of Muslim terrorists in the 21st century.

    : Do you have a source for the 40-50% Europeans figure for Mexicans?

    http://journals.plos.org/plosone/article?id=10.1371/journal.pone.0141260

    “Participants were randomly selected among individuals residing in the Houston area who are enrolled in the Mexican-American Cohort study. Using a custom Illumina GoldenGate Panel, we genotyped DNA from 4,662 cohort participants for 87 Ancestry-Informative Markers. On average, the participants were of 50.2% Native American ancestry, 42.7% European ancestry and 7.1% African ancestry.”

    There are other studies, the European percentage of Mestizos (the Mexicans most likely to emigrate to the USA) is generally in the 40% – 50% range, closer to 40%. Mexicans who marry whites have children that often look white.

    Of course, the Euro heritage of Mexicans is Mediterranean, not Anglo Saxon, so rather different from America’s traditional Anglo culture.

    Indeed, all one has to do is take a look at the behavior of some Balts and Ukrainians during the Holocaust to see how even “civilized” Christian Europeans can descend to levels of barbarity similar to those of Muslim terrorists in the 21st century.

    Or the Germans and the Japanese.

    There is a difference between tribal violence and day to day criminal violence. Western Ukraine, where people brutally slaughtered a lot of Poles and Jews, has the lowest homicide rate in the Slavic former USSR. The Balkan countries, known for tribal brutality, also have low homicide rates.

    Read More
    • Replies: @reiner Tor
    Tribal brutality is also a bit different. The Arabs often have very low murder rates due to the risk of tribal revenge. But in a non-tribal society they will often resort to violence, even murderous violence, because the risk of retaliation is low. It is supposed to be retaliated by the police and the courts, but the ridiculously mild punishments meted out by them is usually not an effective deterrent, while it works better on whites because of the social opprobrium which is absent in the Arabs (or non-whites in general).
    ReplyAgree/Disagree/Etc. More... This Commenter This Thread Hide Thread Display All Comments
  35. @Mr. XYZ
    @AP: Do you have a source for the 40-50% Europeans figure for Mexicans?

    Also, what is interesting is that U.S. Hispanics perform about as well as Greeks do on PISA:

    https://isteve.blogspot.com/2013/12/overall-pisa-rankings-include-america.html

    Their performance looks bad in large part due to the fact that U.S. Whites perform very well even in comparison to some other White countries.

    In addition to this, I wonder what the genetic ceiling for European Muslims is. Would it be similar to the Greek/Hispanic level if they were well-nourished and stopped engaging in cousin marriage?

    Also, I agree that it is undesirable to have a lot of crime-prone people in one's country. That said, though, I wonder how much European Muslims' propensity to engage in crime and target civilians is genetic versus environmental. After all, it's certainly not like some Europeans--such as some Balts and Ukrainians--werenot as savage as Muslim terrorists are today. Indeed, all one has to do is take a look at the behavior of some Balts and Ukrainians during the Holocaust to see how even "civilized" Christian Europeans can descend to levels of barbarity similar to those of Muslim terrorists in the 21st century.

    the behavior of some Balts and Ukrainians during the Holocaust to see how even “civilized” Christian Europeans can descend to levels of barbarity

    That’s a very bad argument. First, it conflates organized and interpersonal violence under the lazy term “barbarity.” Those are two very different things. Organized violence is something high trust high IQ societies are better at. Interpersonal violence is something which low IQ low trust societies engage in.

    Then there’s the issue that it was actually organized by the Germans, one of the highest IQ highest trust societies ever. The “spontaneous” pogroms by the Ukrainians and Lithuanians were anything but.

    Read More
    • Replies: @AP

    The “spontaneous” pogroms by the Ukrainians and Lithuanians were anything but.
     
    Ukrainian nationalists did slaughter Poles in a very well-organized and systematic way. They surrounded the Polish villages, surreptitiously warned ethnic Ukrainians in those villages to leave the night before, convinced the Poles they would be safe in order for them to let down their guard, and pounced. After slaughtering the inhabitants, goods were distributed among Ukrainians from surrounding villages. They then erased all traces of the village's existence. This was done across a wide area at a similar time.

    https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Massacres_of_Poles_in_Volhynia_and_Eastern_Galicia#Methods

    Croats were even worse, towards Serbs. Croatia'a homicide rate of .87 is one of the lowest in the world.
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  36. Ireland and Iceland look to be in the best shape. While Ireland is one of Europe’s most religious countries, Iceland is one of the least

    there was that interesting (but as far as i know not repeated) study from Iceland which seemed to suggest marriage between people who were 3rd to 4th cousins were the most fertile – maybe that’s what Icelanders have ended up as due to the combination of their small population combined with their active measures to prevent inbreeding.

    Read More
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  37. It is noteworthy that the 4 Mediterranean countries of mainland Europe (Greece, Italy, Spain and Portugal) have the 4 lowest native TFR rates.

    https://www.zerohedge.com/news/2018-01-18/incredible-shrinking-population-2080-italians-will-be-minority-their-own-nation

    The number of native Italians is declining by 250,000 a year, and that rate is increasing. Southern Europe as a whole must be losing more than half a million natives every year.

    Read More
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  38. @AP

    : Do you have a source for the 40-50% Europeans figure for Mexicans?
     
    http://journals.plos.org/plosone/article?id=10.1371/journal.pone.0141260

    "Participants were randomly selected among individuals residing in the Houston area who are enrolled in the Mexican-American Cohort study. Using a custom Illumina GoldenGate Panel, we genotyped DNA from 4,662 cohort participants for 87 Ancestry-Informative Markers. On average, the participants were of 50.2% Native American ancestry, 42.7% European ancestry and 7.1% African ancestry."

    There are other studies, the European percentage of Mestizos (the Mexicans most likely to emigrate to the USA) is generally in the 40% - 50% range, closer to 40%. Mexicans who marry whites have children that often look white.

    Of course, the Euro heritage of Mexicans is Mediterranean, not Anglo Saxon, so rather different from America's traditional Anglo culture.

    Indeed, all one has to do is take a look at the behavior of some Balts and Ukrainians during the Holocaust to see how even “civilized” Christian Europeans can descend to levels of barbarity similar to those of Muslim terrorists in the 21st century.

     

    Or the Germans and the Japanese.

    There is a difference between tribal violence and day to day criminal violence. Western Ukraine, where people brutally slaughtered a lot of Poles and Jews, has the lowest homicide rate in the Slavic former USSR. The Balkan countries, known for tribal brutality, also have low homicide rates.

    Tribal brutality is also a bit different. The Arabs often have very low murder rates due to the risk of tribal revenge. But in a non-tribal society they will often resort to violence, even murderous violence, because the risk of retaliation is low. It is supposed to be retaliated by the police and the courts, but the ridiculously mild punishments meted out by them is usually not an effective deterrent, while it works better on whites because of the social opprobrium which is absent in the Arabs (or non-whites in general).

    Read More
    • Replies: @Mitleser

    Tribal brutality is also a bit different. The Arabs often have very low murder rates due to the risk of tribal revenge. But in a non-tribal society they will often resort to violence, even murderous violence, because the risk of retaliation is low. It is supposed to be retaliated by the police and the courts, but the ridiculously mild punishments meted out by them is usually not an effective deterrent, while it works better on whites because of the social opprobrium which is absent in the Arabs (or non-whites in general).
     
    How to deal with them

    Jobless Enes A. from Syria tried to mug a pair of elderly shop owners in front of their house and steal 15.000 E from them.

    Their 2 sons, 32 and 36 years old, intervened and he fled. They followed him and allegedly struck him down with their Mercedes and hit him badly afterwards. He had open fractures, concussions broken nose and a series of broken ribs.

    He had fears of being killed then. Had to stay in intensive care for a while and allegedly still "suffers".

    Result:

    He got 2 years prison.
     
    http://themess.net/forum/political-discussion/57437-refugee-crisis-in-europe-news-and-discussion?p=330628#post330628
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  39. @reiner Tor

    the behavior of some Balts and Ukrainians during the Holocaust to see how even “civilized” Christian Europeans can descend to levels of barbarity
     
    That’s a very bad argument. First, it conflates organized and interpersonal violence under the lazy term “barbarity.” Those are two very different things. Organized violence is something high trust high IQ societies are better at. Interpersonal violence is something which low IQ low trust societies engage in.

    Then there’s the issue that it was actually organized by the Germans, one of the highest IQ highest trust societies ever. The “spontaneous” pogroms by the Ukrainians and Lithuanians were anything but.

    The “spontaneous” pogroms by the Ukrainians and Lithuanians were anything but.

    Ukrainian nationalists did slaughter Poles in a very well-organized and systematic way. They surrounded the Polish villages, surreptitiously warned ethnic Ukrainians in those villages to leave the night before, convinced the Poles they would be safe in order for them to let down their guard, and pounced. After slaughtering the inhabitants, goods were distributed among Ukrainians from surrounding villages. They then erased all traces of the village’s existence. This was done across a wide area at a similar time.

    https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Massacres_of_Poles_in_Volhynia_and_Eastern_Galicia#Methods

    Croats were even worse, towards Serbs. Croatia’a homicide rate of .87 is one of the lowest in the world.

    Read More
    • Replies: @reiner Tor
    Yes, the Ukrainians were capable of being horrible in an organized way.

    I responded to the specific example of the holocaust, that is, their behavior towards the Jews. It consisted of two different things, participating in mass murder organized by the Germans (including guarding concentration camps and participating in mass shootings) and the “spontaneous” pogroms. The former was organized violence (organized by the Germans) and the latter, while spontaneous in appearance, was also organized by the Germans.

    Anyway, all this is quite different from interpersonal violence, which is what the third world masses bring with them.
    , @Bliss
    https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Massacres_of_Poles_in_Volhynia_and_Eastern_Galicia#Methods

    In case of Polish-Ukrainian families, one common UPA instruction was to kill one's Polish spouse and children born of that marriage. People who refused to carry such order were often murdered together with their entire family.[43][110]
     
    Can you imagine the inhumanity of forcing a man to kill his beloved wife and children to save himself? I wonder what was the percentage of those who did it. Was it the majority? How could they live with themselves afterwards? Imagine their guilt, sorrow and shame.

    The unbelievably cruel, genocidal savagery unleashed in northern Europe during WWII proves how tenuous is the hold of Christianity and civilization on the barbarian.
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  40. @AP

    The “spontaneous” pogroms by the Ukrainians and Lithuanians were anything but.
     
    Ukrainian nationalists did slaughter Poles in a very well-organized and systematic way. They surrounded the Polish villages, surreptitiously warned ethnic Ukrainians in those villages to leave the night before, convinced the Poles they would be safe in order for them to let down their guard, and pounced. After slaughtering the inhabitants, goods were distributed among Ukrainians from surrounding villages. They then erased all traces of the village's existence. This was done across a wide area at a similar time.

    https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Massacres_of_Poles_in_Volhynia_and_Eastern_Galicia#Methods

    Croats were even worse, towards Serbs. Croatia'a homicide rate of .87 is one of the lowest in the world.

    Yes, the Ukrainians were capable of being horrible in an organized way.

    I responded to the specific example of the holocaust, that is, their behavior towards the Jews. It consisted of two different things, participating in mass murder organized by the Germans (including guarding concentration camps and participating in mass shootings) and the “spontaneous” pogroms. The former was organized violence (organized by the Germans) and the latter, while spontaneous in appearance, was also organized by the Germans.

    Anyway, all this is quite different from interpersonal violence, which is what the third world masses bring with them.

    Read More
    • Replies: @AP

    I responded to the specific example of the holocaust, that is, their behavior towards the Jews. It consisted of two different things, participating in mass murder organized by the Germans (including guarding concentration camps and participating in mass shootings) and the “spontaneous” pogroms.
     
    Correct. Ukrainian nationalists didn't care so much about the Jews (who were sometimes spared when their Polish neighbors were not), atrocities against them were mostly a German-organized thing.

    Concentration camp guards were mostly not Ukrainian nationalists, but rather captured Soviet soldiers of Ukrainian ethnicity who chose such work in order to avoid starving to death in POW camps. Demjanjuk was typical - born in a village outside Kiev, served in the Soviet Army, was captured by the Germans in Crimea.

    Ukrainian nationalists were in the local police who helped the Germans round up Jews. They did this not primarily out of hatred for Jews but in order to obtain training in shooting and police-work, and weapons to pass on into the underground.

    Anyway, all this is quite different from interpersonal violence, which is what the third world masses bring with them.
     
    Correct. These Ukrainians engaged in such evil actions were comparable to Croats, Serbs, Germans, etc. rather than to Hutus, in that outside the context of nationalistic warfare they were not homicidal.
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  41. @AP

    The “spontaneous” pogroms by the Ukrainians and Lithuanians were anything but.
     
    Ukrainian nationalists did slaughter Poles in a very well-organized and systematic way. They surrounded the Polish villages, surreptitiously warned ethnic Ukrainians in those villages to leave the night before, convinced the Poles they would be safe in order for them to let down their guard, and pounced. After slaughtering the inhabitants, goods were distributed among Ukrainians from surrounding villages. They then erased all traces of the village's existence. This was done across a wide area at a similar time.

    https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Massacres_of_Poles_in_Volhynia_and_Eastern_Galicia#Methods

    Croats were even worse, towards Serbs. Croatia'a homicide rate of .87 is one of the lowest in the world.

    https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Massacres_of_Poles_in_Volhynia_and_Eastern_Galicia#Methods

    In case of Polish-Ukrainian families, one common UPA instruction was to kill one’s Polish spouse and children born of that marriage. People who refused to carry such order were often murdered together with their entire family.[43][110]

    Can you imagine the inhumanity of forcing a man to kill his beloved wife and children to save himself? I wonder what was the percentage of those who did it. Was it the majority? How could they live with themselves afterwards? Imagine their guilt, sorrow and shame.

    The unbelievably cruel, genocidal savagery unleashed in northern Europe during WWII proves how tenuous is the hold of Christianity and civilization on the barbarian.

    Read More
    • Replies: @AP
    There is a classic Ukrainian poem about a Ukrainian Cossack leader who, during the Massacre of Uman killed his two young sons as they begged for their lives, because they were Catholics (scroll down to "Gonta in Uman"):

    https://taras-shevchenko.infolike.net/taras-shevchenko-poem-haidamaki-english-translation-by-john-weir.html

    The story seems to be apocryphal though. Gogol's fictional Taras Bulba killed his son, though he was grown.
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  42. Looking at the UN Projections for Europe:

    Its Eastern Europe whose population will fall the most. Low fertility, no immigration.
    West Europe (lets say UK and France will go up), but thats only due to immigration.
    Germany will be slightly drop. (even with immigration).
    South Europe will drop slightly.

    Looking at the Population Reference Bureau numbers (Fertility rates):

    South Europe. 1.3-1.4 per women.
    East Europe 1.6 (maybe minorities in Russia raise it?)
    Western Europe 1.7 (immigrants raise it)
    North Europe 1.8 (immigrants raise it?)
    (CIA has South higher and East Europe lower).

    None of it is enough.

    North Africa 3.3 comparing it to the US before 1965 for whites.
    First several generations of minorities have more kids, but later fall.

    Read More
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  43. @Beckow
    Religion is about having children - that is how religions have historically developed. Religion is an evolutionary tool that helps tribes or societies to go on, mainly by having stable families with children.

    When societies reach certain level of development, religion gets conflated with faith or a lack of faith, in effect with philosophy. People start overthinking it. They get too worked up about what to believe and forget that we have religions not for philosophical discussions, but to assure that people form stable families and have children. It is not that natural to raise children when one thinks about it too much. The quickest way to improve society's welfare, its level of effective consumption, is to ignore future, forgo next generation, and simply consume. Once that dynamic kicks in, it is difficult to change it. That's why the latest Pope with his meandering liberalism is such a disaster. He is making an already bad situation worse.

    It happened in the ancient world, and it has started to happen again in Europe in the late 20th century. To reverse it we would have to consciously go back to some sort of societal religion. That is hard because most available religious systems are poorly thought out for rational people. Maybe stable, decreasing populations, with strict control on the Third World immigration is the best we can hope for. (Or get out there and start procreating, that low TFR won't fix itself!)

    The whole worlds fertility rates are dropping.

    Average was 5 kids. 1960.
    Now its 2.5 kids. 2015.

    You need massive culture change in the West, and get those scum leaders out or change their minds.
    I think condoms, birth control, feminism, and pornography are the biggest reasons for problems.
    Also people are lazier, more depressed, people fatter, etc.

    Read More
    • Replies: @Beckow

    You need massive culture change in the West, and get those scum leaders out or change their minds.
     
    They will never change their minds, it is 'who they are'. The good news is that they will be gone because they don't value having and raising children. The bad news is that they might destroy our societies. We are being replaced because that's the easiest way forward they can think off.
    , @notanon

    Also people are lazier, more depressed, people fatter, etc.
     
    metabolic syndrome - there's something in the food/water/air
    , @dfordoom

    I think condoms, birth control, feminism, and pornography are the biggest reasons for problems.
    Also people are lazier, more depressed, people fatter, etc.
     
    Those are certainly factors, but there are others. There is the absence of any genuine sense of community. People see themselves as isolated individuals. Why bother raising kids if you don't believe you're part of something bigger than yourself?

    And there's the absence of extended families. Extended families make child-rearing much much easier and more rewarding for women.
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  44. @Bliss
    https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Massacres_of_Poles_in_Volhynia_and_Eastern_Galicia#Methods

    In case of Polish-Ukrainian families, one common UPA instruction was to kill one's Polish spouse and children born of that marriage. People who refused to carry such order were often murdered together with their entire family.[43][110]
     
    Can you imagine the inhumanity of forcing a man to kill his beloved wife and children to save himself? I wonder what was the percentage of those who did it. Was it the majority? How could they live with themselves afterwards? Imagine their guilt, sorrow and shame.

    The unbelievably cruel, genocidal savagery unleashed in northern Europe during WWII proves how tenuous is the hold of Christianity and civilization on the barbarian.

    There is a classic Ukrainian poem about a Ukrainian Cossack leader who, during the Massacre of Uman killed his two young sons as they begged for their lives, because they were Catholics (scroll down to “Gonta in Uman”):

    https://taras-shevchenko.infolike.net/taras-shevchenko-poem-haidamaki-english-translation-by-john-weir.html

    The story seems to be apocryphal though. Gogol’s fictional Taras Bulba killed his son, though he was grown.

    Read More
    • Replies: @melanf

    Gogol’s fictional Taras Bulba killed his son, though he was grown.
     
    Bulba killed his son because he (son) was a traitor ( not on religious or ethnic lines)
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  45. @reiner Tor
    Yes, the Ukrainians were capable of being horrible in an organized way.

    I responded to the specific example of the holocaust, that is, their behavior towards the Jews. It consisted of two different things, participating in mass murder organized by the Germans (including guarding concentration camps and participating in mass shootings) and the “spontaneous” pogroms. The former was organized violence (organized by the Germans) and the latter, while spontaneous in appearance, was also organized by the Germans.

    Anyway, all this is quite different from interpersonal violence, which is what the third world masses bring with them.

    I responded to the specific example of the holocaust, that is, their behavior towards the Jews. It consisted of two different things, participating in mass murder organized by the Germans (including guarding concentration camps and participating in mass shootings) and the “spontaneous” pogroms.

    Correct. Ukrainian nationalists didn’t care so much about the Jews (who were sometimes spared when their Polish neighbors were not), atrocities against them were mostly a German-organized thing.

    Concentration camp guards were mostly not Ukrainian nationalists, but rather captured Soviet soldiers of Ukrainian ethnicity who chose such work in order to avoid starving to death in POW camps. Demjanjuk was typical – born in a village outside Kiev, served in the Soviet Army, was captured by the Germans in Crimea.

    Ukrainian nationalists were in the local police who helped the Germans round up Jews. They did this not primarily out of hatred for Jews but in order to obtain training in shooting and police-work, and weapons to pass on into the underground.

    Anyway, all this is quite different from interpersonal violence, which is what the third world masses bring with them.

    Correct. These Ukrainians engaged in such evil actions were comparable to Croats, Serbs, Germans, etc. rather than to Hutus, in that outside the context of nationalistic warfare they were not homicidal.

    Read More
    • Replies: @neutral

    They did this not primarily out of hatred for Jews
     
    You don't think that the (((Bolsheviks))) starving millions of Ukranians to death caused them to be hated?
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  46. @Talha
    Exactly...it's a little zombie/terminator-like in that sense.

    The weird thing for me was - I watched it a couple of times and felt upset. Like, why is that jerk with a hockey stick beating that poor thing up? But - it's a frickin' machine - it's no different (metaphysically) than a pile of metal bars. But its association with the body of an animal brought out an instinctive response - it was like I was watching some guy beat a sheep around or something.

    Wonder if anyone else had similar reactions...

    Peace.
    Read More
    • Replies: @Talha
    Robot Lives Matter - LOL!

    Though I wonder, those do elicit a human gut response from me - I wonder what that means for "companionship" robots. Will humans be able to get past the idea they are not looking at a machine?

    Weird stuff...
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  47. @Mr. XYZ
    @AP: Do you have a source for the 40-50% Europeans figure for Mexicans?

    Also, what is interesting is that U.S. Hispanics perform about as well as Greeks do on PISA:

    https://isteve.blogspot.com/2013/12/overall-pisa-rankings-include-america.html

    Their performance looks bad in large part due to the fact that U.S. Whites perform very well even in comparison to some other White countries.

    In addition to this, I wonder what the genetic ceiling for European Muslims is. Would it be similar to the Greek/Hispanic level if they were well-nourished and stopped engaging in cousin marriage?

    Also, I agree that it is undesirable to have a lot of crime-prone people in one's country. That said, though, I wonder how much European Muslims' propensity to engage in crime and target civilians is genetic versus environmental. After all, it's certainly not like some Europeans--such as some Balts and Ukrainians--werenot as savage as Muslim terrorists are today. Indeed, all one has to do is take a look at the behavior of some Balts and Ukrainians during the Holocaust to see how even "civilized" Christian Europeans can descend to levels of barbarity similar to those of Muslim terrorists in the 21st century.

    Balts and Ukrainians aren’t White.

    Saturday Night Live Transcripts
    Season 14: Episode 3 [1988]
    88c: John Larroquette / Randy Newman
    Vote Bush III
    [ show each President's head encircled over a North European country ]
    Announcer: Franklin Delano Roosevelt was of white northern European heritage.
    Thomas Jefferson was of white northern European heritage.
    John F. Kennedy was of white northern European heritage.
    George Herbert Walker Bush is of white northern European heritage.
    [ show Dukakis' encircled just above the Mediterranean Sea ]
    But Michael Dukakis?
    Bush. He’s whiter.
    [ SUPER: "Bush. He's Whiter." ]

    Read More
    • Replies: @RadicalCenter
    Citing a tv show, esp. the wildly overrated propaganda mill called “SNL”, adds no credibility. And it’s just not real funny either, in this case.

    Get rid of the damn tv already and get out into life.
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  48. @AP
    There is a classic Ukrainian poem about a Ukrainian Cossack leader who, during the Massacre of Uman killed his two young sons as they begged for their lives, because they were Catholics (scroll down to "Gonta in Uman"):

    https://taras-shevchenko.infolike.net/taras-shevchenko-poem-haidamaki-english-translation-by-john-weir.html

    The story seems to be apocryphal though. Gogol's fictional Taras Bulba killed his son, though he was grown.

    Gogol’s fictional Taras Bulba killed his son, though he was grown.

    Bulba killed his son because he (son) was a traitor ( not on religious or ethnic lines)

    Read More
    • Replies: @AP
    Correct, and his son was a traitor because he was with a Polish woman and was essentially getting Polonized. This was allegedly based on a true story, from the family history of one of Gogol's Ukrainian friends in St. Petersburg.
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  49. @Mr. XYZ
    @AP: Do you have a source for the 40-50% Europeans figure for Mexicans?

    Also, what is interesting is that U.S. Hispanics perform about as well as Greeks do on PISA:

    https://isteve.blogspot.com/2013/12/overall-pisa-rankings-include-america.html

    Their performance looks bad in large part due to the fact that U.S. Whites perform very well even in comparison to some other White countries.

    In addition to this, I wonder what the genetic ceiling for European Muslims is. Would it be similar to the Greek/Hispanic level if they were well-nourished and stopped engaging in cousin marriage?

    Also, I agree that it is undesirable to have a lot of crime-prone people in one's country. That said, though, I wonder how much European Muslims' propensity to engage in crime and target civilians is genetic versus environmental. After all, it's certainly not like some Europeans--such as some Balts and Ukrainians--werenot as savage as Muslim terrorists are today. Indeed, all one has to do is take a look at the behavior of some Balts and Ukrainians during the Holocaust to see how even "civilized" Christian Europeans can descend to levels of barbarity similar to those of Muslim terrorists in the 21st century.

    In addition to this, I wonder what the genetic ceiling for European Muslims is.

    I suspect low 90s.

    That said, though, I wonder how much European Muslims’ propensity to engage in crime and target civilians is genetic versus environmental.

    Probably largely environmental – criminality increases by an order of magnitude when an Algerian moves from Algeria to France or Germany.

    Read More
    • Replies: @LondonBob
    There is an issue in Carribbean islands of returning youth being far more crime prone than those who stayed. The cultural dislocation obviously has a dire effect.
    , @Polish Perspective
    The root cause is likely genetic, the superficial cause is environmental. As some have already noted, the tribal punishment system in the Arab world is much harsher and any concerns about 'rule of law' doesn't exist. Many local institutions are controlled by various tribes at any rate, certainly outside the major cities.

    So what we have is that the punishment system is far more lax in Europe, you often won't even go to prison and even rape typically doesn't even get you rape. In Sweden and similar countries you instead get sent to some aging boomerhag who will try to "rehabilitate" you.

    What this means is that genuine punishment collapses and as such the true genetic potential for violence emerges. And it is genetic, because in the same lax environment crime rates for Europeans are obviously far lower. So, environmental only in a superficial sense but root cause is more likely genetic.
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  50. @German_reader

    Religion is about having children
     
    Not necessarily true, there were strong ascetic traditions in Christianity after all whose fundamental goal was to escape evolutionary pressures; marriage and procreation was supposed to be a concession to the weak, and in the middle ages monks and nuns were held in the highest regard.
    Agree with you that most religious systems are pretty weak as coherent systems of thought in the modern world; some vague Deism might still be acceptable though.

    there were strong ascetic traditions in Christianity after all whose fundamental goal was to escape evolutionary pressures; marriage and procreation was supposed to be a concession to the weak

    True, and they loom large when we look back. And yet they were not the core form of Christianity for most people, that was the patient, accepting, continuos family life. The evolutionary value of religion is in that it promotes having children in a stable family. Religion is ‘rules that tie society together’ (its Latin etymology).

    When we slowly acquired conscious existence as humans, it led to the possibility of nihilism. Animals cannot experience nihilism, they just do stuff and pro-create because they have no choice. But having speech, verbal ability and abstract thoughts were mentally potentially destabilising. So successful groups evolved religious rules to minimise nihilistic behaviours like ‘after me deluge’ and ‘do what feels good’. Today many groups have lost it and the consequences are not that great.

    I am not talking about religion as philosophy, that was a luxury. Asceticism is interesting as an exception that highlights what was the universal rule for most people. Religion as evolutionary adaption was not about philosophy, nor about ascetic escapism – it was about having children and raising them in stable families. We have lost that; our ancestors feared ‘chaos’, this is how chaos and nihilism feel. Are we having fun?

    Read More
    • Replies: @Dmitry

    We have lost that; our ancestors feared ‘chaos’, this is how chaos and nihilism feel. Are we having fun?
     
    Yes - life is better today for our generation, in every conceivable way from my perspective, than it was for any of our parents, grand-parents (largely), great-grandparents (especially), etc. We live in the miracle that people of our generation who fail or succeed in life today, it is almost always their own responsibility, and that it is remarkably easy to live a safe and middle class life.
    , @Anon

    Religion as evolutionary adaption was not about philosophy, nor about ascetic escapism – it was about having children and raising them in stable families.
     
    People had good reasons to escape from that system of raising children:
    https://homeschoolersanonymous.org/tag/corporal-punishment/
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  51. @polskijoe
    The whole worlds fertility rates are dropping.

    Average was 5 kids. 1960.
    Now its 2.5 kids. 2015.

    You need massive culture change in the West, and get those scum leaders out or change their minds.
    I think condoms, birth control, feminism, and pornography are the biggest reasons for problems.
    Also people are lazier, more depressed, people fatter, etc.

    You need massive culture change in the West, and get those scum leaders out or change their minds.

    They will never change their minds, it is ‘who they are’. The good news is that they will be gone because they don’t value having and raising children. The bad news is that they might destroy our societies. We are being replaced because that’s the easiest way forward they can think off.

    Read More
    • Replies: @dfordoom

    They will never change their minds, it is ‘who they are’. The good news is that they will be gone because they don’t value having and raising children.
     
    They don't need to raise children. Once our children go to university, or even high school, they belong to the liberal globalists/SJWs. That's how liberal globalists/SJWs reproduce, by stealing other people's children. That's been their strategy for more than half a century. It's been spectacularly successful. It's fascinating from an evolutionary point of view.

    Of course conservatives never noticed it was happening, or if they did notice they did nothing because they were too busy with more important things, like tax cuts for the rich.
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  52. @Anatoly Karlin

    In addition to this, I wonder what the genetic ceiling for European Muslims is.

     

    I suspect low 90s.

    That said, though, I wonder how much European Muslims’ propensity to engage in crime and target civilians is genetic versus environmental.
     
    Probably largely environmental - criminality increases by an order of magnitude when an Algerian moves from Algeria to France or Germany.

    There is an issue in Carribbean islands of returning youth being far more crime prone than those who stayed. The cultural dislocation obviously has a dire effect.

    Read More
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  53. (1) We are doomed.
    (2) I was wrong about French native fertility having to be above 2.01, based on my calculation from ten years ago. Either he numbers were wrong then, or the situation have worsened significantly now.
    (3) We are fucking doomed.

    Read More
    • Replies: @Mitleser

    I was wrong about French native fertility having to be above 2.01, based on my calculation from ten years ago. Either he numbers were wrong then, or the situation have worsened significantly now.
     
    French fertility has been declining during the 2010s.
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  54. @AP

    I responded to the specific example of the holocaust, that is, their behavior towards the Jews. It consisted of two different things, participating in mass murder organized by the Germans (including guarding concentration camps and participating in mass shootings) and the “spontaneous” pogroms.
     
    Correct. Ukrainian nationalists didn't care so much about the Jews (who were sometimes spared when their Polish neighbors were not), atrocities against them were mostly a German-organized thing.

    Concentration camp guards were mostly not Ukrainian nationalists, but rather captured Soviet soldiers of Ukrainian ethnicity who chose such work in order to avoid starving to death in POW camps. Demjanjuk was typical - born in a village outside Kiev, served in the Soviet Army, was captured by the Germans in Crimea.

    Ukrainian nationalists were in the local police who helped the Germans round up Jews. They did this not primarily out of hatred for Jews but in order to obtain training in shooting and police-work, and weapons to pass on into the underground.

    Anyway, all this is quite different from interpersonal violence, which is what the third world masses bring with them.
     
    Correct. These Ukrainians engaged in such evil actions were comparable to Croats, Serbs, Germans, etc. rather than to Hutus, in that outside the context of nationalistic warfare they were not homicidal.

    They did this not primarily out of hatred for Jews

    You don’t think that the (((Bolsheviks))) starving millions of Ukranians to death caused them to be hated?

    Read More
    • Replies: @AP
    It probably contributed to the Soviet POWs (many of whom were Holodomor survivors) to have a casual attitude about taking up such work. Conversely, a history of being victims of pogroms probably led some Jews who worked in the Bolshevik system to not have much sympathy for the Ukrainian peasants whom they killed and starved to death. It was a sad, violent cycle with victims and criminals on both sides.

    Galician nationalists were somewhat ambivalent. Here is the statement by Bandera's organization, in 1941: "The Jews in the USSR constitute the most faithful support of the ruling Bolshevik regime, and the vanguard of Muscovite imperialism in Ukraine. The Muscovite-Bolshevik government exploits the anti-Jewish sentiments of the Ukrainian masses to divert their attention from the true cause of their misfortune and to channel them in a time of frustration into pogroms on Jews. The OUN combats the Jews as the prop of the Muscovite-Bolshevik regime and simultaneously it renders the masses conscious of the fact that the principal foe is Moscow."

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  55. @Talha
    Exactly...it's a little zombie/terminator-like in that sense.

    The weird thing for me was - I watched it a couple of times and felt upset. Like, why is that jerk with a hockey stick beating that poor thing up? But - it's a frickin' machine - it's no different (metaphysically) than a pile of metal bars. But its association with the body of an animal brought out an instinctive response - it was like I was watching some guy beat a sheep around or something.

    Wonder if anyone else had similar reactions...

    Peace.

    I’ve been following Boston Dynamics for a few years and I have the same reaction. And my daughter was even worse when she first saw these videos, declaring that she was going to throw the dude with the hockey stick into the rubbish.

    Read More
    • LOL: Talha
    • Replies: @Talha
    Honestly, that is a healthy response from a girl as far as I'm concerned. They see this struggling animal-looking thing (and it really looks helpless and vulnerable) and a protective side kicks in. It's weird, I've even seen videos where a predatory female animal has just orphaned some little calf by killing its mother, but it won't eat the calf, it actually acts "mother-like" towards it. It's amazing that the concept of nurturing motherhood can transcend species. Feral human children that have been raised by wild mother animals are a good (but rare) example.

    Peace.
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  56. @neutral

    They did this not primarily out of hatred for Jews
     
    You don't think that the (((Bolsheviks))) starving millions of Ukranians to death caused them to be hated?

    It probably contributed to the Soviet POWs (many of whom were Holodomor survivors) to have a casual attitude about taking up such work. Conversely, a history of being victims of pogroms probably led some Jews who worked in the Bolshevik system to not have much sympathy for the Ukrainian peasants whom they killed and starved to death. It was a sad, violent cycle with victims and criminals on both sides.

    Galician nationalists were somewhat ambivalent. Here is the statement by Bandera’s organization, in 1941: “The Jews in the USSR constitute the most faithful support of the ruling Bolshevik regime, and the vanguard of Muscovite imperialism in Ukraine. The Muscovite-Bolshevik government exploits the anti-Jewish sentiments of the Ukrainian masses to divert their attention from the true cause of their misfortune and to channel them in a time of frustration into pogroms on Jews. The OUN combats the Jews as the prop of the Muscovite-Bolshevik regime and simultaneously it renders the masses conscious of the fact that the principal foe is Moscow.”

    Read More
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  57. Another interesting observation is that the TFR of immigrants is not only dependent on their countries of origin, but also policies of the state. Just take Sweden and France. Both of them have huge stocks of Muslims and Blacks and the TFR of native Swedes and French is the same.

    Yet those immigrants in Sweden have one child less than those in France. It seems that the Belgo-French family policy model works especially well in encouraging more underclass/muslim/black births. The Nordic model is more geared towards bringing the highest possible number of women/mothers into jobs.

    Oh yeah, and I should add to that table that the percentages refer to the share of women, not the share of births. Should have made that more clear. I’ll do that when the data for 2016 will be ready. :)

    Read More
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  58. @melanf

    Gogol’s fictional Taras Bulba killed his son, though he was grown.
     
    Bulba killed his son because he (son) was a traitor ( not on religious or ethnic lines)

    Correct, and his son was a traitor because he was with a Polish woman and was essentially getting Polonized. This was allegedly based on a true story, from the family history of one of Gogol’s Ukrainian friends in St. Petersburg.

    Read More
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  59. @Beckow

    there were strong ascetic traditions in Christianity after all whose fundamental goal was to escape evolutionary pressures; marriage and procreation was supposed to be a concession to the weak
     
    True, and they loom large when we look back. And yet they were not the core form of Christianity for most people, that was the patient, accepting, continuos family life. The evolutionary value of religion is in that it promotes having children in a stable family. Religion is 'rules that tie society together' (its Latin etymology).

    When we slowly acquired conscious existence as humans, it led to the possibility of nihilism. Animals cannot experience nihilism, they just do stuff and pro-create because they have no choice. But having speech, verbal ability and abstract thoughts were mentally potentially destabilising. So successful groups evolved religious rules to minimise nihilistic behaviours like 'after me deluge' and 'do what feels good'. Today many groups have lost it and the consequences are not that great.

    I am not talking about religion as philosophy, that was a luxury. Asceticism is interesting as an exception that highlights what was the universal rule for most people. Religion as evolutionary adaption was not about philosophy, nor about ascetic escapism - it was about having children and raising them in stable families. We have lost that; our ancestors feared 'chaos', this is how chaos and nihilism feel. Are we having fun?

    We have lost that; our ancestors feared ‘chaos’, this is how chaos and nihilism feel. Are we having fun?

    Yes – life is better today for our generation, in every conceivable way from my perspective, than it was for any of our parents, grand-parents (largely), great-grandparents (especially), etc. We live in the miracle that people of our generation who fail or succeed in life today, it is almost always their own responsibility, and that it is remarkably easy to live a safe and middle class life.

    Read More
    • Replies: @AP
    Ernst Junger who straddled the older and newer worlds had a nice quote about this:

    "What they had done in their youth, and what for milleniums had been man's vocation, joy, and pleasure - to ride a horse, to plow in the morning in the steaming fields, to walk behind the oxen, to mow the yellow grain in the blazing summer heat while streams of sweat poured down the tanned body...all this, praised by poets since time immemorial, was now past and gone. Joy in labor had disappeared.

    How can one explain this trend toward a more colorless and shallow life? Well, the work was easier, if less healthy, and it brought more money, more leisure, and perhaps more entertainment. A day in the country is long and hard. And yet the fruits of their present life were worthless compared to a single coin of their former life: a rest in the evening and a rural festivity. That they no longer knew the old kind of happiness was obvious from the discontent which spread over their features. Soon, dissatisfaction, prevailing over all their moods, became their religion..."

    Or Dostoyevsky - "The world says: "You have needs -- satisfy them. You have as much right as the rich and the mighty. Don't hesitate to satisfy your needs; indeed, expand your needs and demand more." This is the worldly doctrine of today. And they believe that this is freedom. The result for the rich is isolation and suicide, for the poor, envy and murder.”

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  60. @Beckow

    there were strong ascetic traditions in Christianity after all whose fundamental goal was to escape evolutionary pressures; marriage and procreation was supposed to be a concession to the weak
     
    True, and they loom large when we look back. And yet they were not the core form of Christianity for most people, that was the patient, accepting, continuos family life. The evolutionary value of religion is in that it promotes having children in a stable family. Religion is 'rules that tie society together' (its Latin etymology).

    When we slowly acquired conscious existence as humans, it led to the possibility of nihilism. Animals cannot experience nihilism, they just do stuff and pro-create because they have no choice. But having speech, verbal ability and abstract thoughts were mentally potentially destabilising. So successful groups evolved religious rules to minimise nihilistic behaviours like 'after me deluge' and 'do what feels good'. Today many groups have lost it and the consequences are not that great.

    I am not talking about religion as philosophy, that was a luxury. Asceticism is interesting as an exception that highlights what was the universal rule for most people. Religion as evolutionary adaption was not about philosophy, nor about ascetic escapism - it was about having children and raising them in stable families. We have lost that; our ancestors feared 'chaos', this is how chaos and nihilism feel. Are we having fun?

    Religion as evolutionary adaption was not about philosophy, nor about ascetic escapism – it was about having children and raising them in stable families.

    People had good reasons to escape from that system of raising children:

    https://homeschoolersanonymous.org/tag/corporal-punishment/

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  61. @Dmitry

    We have lost that; our ancestors feared ‘chaos’, this is how chaos and nihilism feel. Are we having fun?
     
    Yes - life is better today for our generation, in every conceivable way from my perspective, than it was for any of our parents, grand-parents (largely), great-grandparents (especially), etc. We live in the miracle that people of our generation who fail or succeed in life today, it is almost always their own responsibility, and that it is remarkably easy to live a safe and middle class life.

    Ernst Junger who straddled the older and newer worlds had a nice quote about this:

    “What they had done in their youth, and what for milleniums had been man’s vocation, joy, and pleasure – to ride a horse, to plow in the morning in the steaming fields, to walk behind the oxen, to mow the yellow grain in the blazing summer heat while streams of sweat poured down the tanned body…all this, praised by poets since time immemorial, was now past and gone. Joy in labor had disappeared.

    How can one explain this trend toward a more colorless and shallow life? Well, the work was easier, if less healthy, and it brought more money, more leisure, and perhaps more entertainment. A day in the country is long and hard. And yet the fruits of their present life were worthless compared to a single coin of their former life: a rest in the evening and a rural festivity. That they no longer knew the old kind of happiness was obvious from the discontent which spread over their features. Soon, dissatisfaction, prevailing over all their moods, became their religion…”

    Or Dostoyevsky – “The world says: “You have needs — satisfy them. You have as much right as the rich and the mighty. Don’t hesitate to satisfy your needs; indeed, expand your needs and demand more.” This is the worldly doctrine of today. And they believe that this is freedom. The result for the rich is isolation and suicide, for the poor, envy and murder.”

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    • Replies: @Anon
    That's a typical rose-tinted-glasses view of peasant life by an intellectual. See also Tolkien and Leo Tolstoy, but the latter at least LARPed as a peasant and was more realistic about what their life was like. Here's his take on that life of spirituality and tradition (and high fertility) in Resurrection:
    "Maslova’s mother was the unmarried daughter of a village woman, employed on a dairy farm, which belonged to two maiden ladies who were landowners. This unmarried woman had a baby every year, and, as often happens among the village people, each one of these undesired babies, after it had been carefully baptised, was neglected by its mother, whom it hindered at her work, and left to starve. Five children had died in this way. They had all been baptised and then not sufficiently fed, and just left to die. The sixth baby, whose father was a gipsy tramp, would have shared the same fate, had it not so happened that one of the maiden ladies came into the farmyard to scold the dairymaids for sending up cream that smelt of the cow."

    And Mark Twain on manual vs intellectual work:
    "There are wise people who talk ever so knowingly and complacently about "the working classes," and satisfy themselves that a day's hard intellectual work is very much harder than a day's hard manual toil, and is righteously entitled to much bigger pay. Why, they really think that, you know, because they all know about the one, but haven't tried the other. But I know all about both; and as far as I am concerned, there isn't money enough in the universe to hire me to swing a pickaxe thirty days, but I will do the hardest kind of intellectual work for just as near nothing as you can cipher it down--and I will be satisfied, too."
    , @Dmitry
    It's more just that people romanticize their youth.

    Ernst Jünger, although he was from a comfortable middle class background (far from living as a peasant) - grew up in the countryside. His youth and country-side life were fused for him. (And later, more strangely and tenuously, he romanticizes the First World War (I have read a few years ago his book 'The storms of steel' - and remember how he writes of these 'romantic summer nights' lying underneath 'storms' of artillery bombardment -his concept of a nice evening is not very usual, to put it mildly).

    Writers that grew up in cities, will romanticize just as much their youth in the city, of taking girls to the cinema and staying up all night in cafes.

    Neither gives us a very objective account. But I can say only in my own viewpoint, that life in the cities is pretty good nowadays, if you can make some free time for yourself. And I'll certainly take it over being stuck all my life in a village.

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  62. @AP
    So without taking into account further migration, were are looking at a steady state population of about 137 million people in Russia (many of whom aren't ethnic Slavs), 116 million in Iran, 64 million people in France (many of whom aren't ethnic French), 60 million people in Germany (many of whom aren't ethnic Germans), 33 million people in Ukraine (almost all Ukrainians or Russians), 29 million people in Poland (almost all Poles or Ukrainians).

    Western Europe is basically finished as a player of any significance on the world stage.

    29 million people in Poland (almost all Poles or Ukrainians).

    Unlikely. Poland is getting wealthier and freedom of movement means that it is will be open to immigration.

    Read More
    • Replies: @AP
    Wishful thinking by pro-Russian nationalists. This has been claimed for decades, hasn't happened and isn't happening.
    , @polskijoe
    Depends on the government and elites in power.
    In "Democracy" things can change on such issues.

    Atm quite antiimmigrant especially Muslims.

    Europeans/white may flee eventually from West,
    but Polish is a hard language to learn and I dont see most of them learning it.

    Also 1 million Ukrainian have arrived (the total may be 1.5 million).
    My relative who allmost lost her life to Bandera now has cleaning ladies from Ukraine.
    My family doesnt like it.

    This whole Ukraine thing is a mess.
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  63. @Talha
    That's OK - behold this historical video...when the machines come to kill us all they will point to this punk-bastard behavior:
    https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=aFuA50H9uek

    Remember, it all started with a hockey stick...

    MFW

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  64. @szopen
    (1) We are doomed.
    (2) I was wrong about French native fertility having to be above 2.01, based on my calculation from ten years ago. Either he numbers were wrong then, or the situation have worsened significantly now.
    (3) We are fucking doomed.

    I was wrong about French native fertility having to be above 2.01, based on my calculation from ten years ago. Either he numbers were wrong then, or the situation have worsened significantly now.

    French fertility has been declining during the 2010s.

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  65. @Hippopotamusdrome

    Robot Lives Matter – LOL!

    Though I wonder, those do elicit a human gut response from me – I wonder what that means for “companionship” robots. Will humans be able to get past the idea they are not looking at a machine?

    Weird stuff…

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    • Replies: @dfordoom

    Though I wonder, those do elicit a human gut response from me – I wonder what that means for “companionship” robots. Will humans be able to get past the idea they are not looking at a machine?
     
    I imagine that the manufacturers of such robots would go to a great deal of trouble to make sure that the robots had maximum cuteness factors. They'll probably look like anime girls.
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  66. @reiner Tor
    Tribal brutality is also a bit different. The Arabs often have very low murder rates due to the risk of tribal revenge. But in a non-tribal society they will often resort to violence, even murderous violence, because the risk of retaliation is low. It is supposed to be retaliated by the police and the courts, but the ridiculously mild punishments meted out by them is usually not an effective deterrent, while it works better on whites because of the social opprobrium which is absent in the Arabs (or non-whites in general).

    Tribal brutality is also a bit different. The Arabs often have very low murder rates due to the risk of tribal revenge. But in a non-tribal society they will often resort to violence, even murderous violence, because the risk of retaliation is low. It is supposed to be retaliated by the police and the courts, but the ridiculously mild punishments meted out by them is usually not an effective deterrent, while it works better on whites because of the social opprobrium which is absent in the Arabs (or non-whites in general).

    How to deal with them

    Jobless Enes A. from Syria tried to mug a pair of elderly shop owners in front of their house and steal 15.000 E from them.

    Their 2 sons, 32 and 36 years old, intervened and he fled. They followed him and allegedly struck him down with their Mercedes and hit him badly afterwards. He had open fractures, concussions broken nose and a series of broken ribs.

    He had fears of being killed then. Had to stay in intensive care for a while and allegedly still “suffers”.

    Result:

    He got 2 years prison.

    http://themess.net/forum/political-discussion/57437-refugee-crisis-in-europe-news-and-discussion?p=330628#post330628

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  67. @Mitleser

    29 million people in Poland (almost all Poles or Ukrainians).
     
    Unlikely. Poland is getting wealthier and freedom of movement means that it is will be open to immigration.

    Wishful thinking by pro-Russian nationalists. This has been claimed for decades, hasn’t happened and isn’t happening.

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    • Replies: @Mitleser
    Wishful thinking by an Ukrop.
    Poland did not use to be wealthy and it is still not wealthy compared to Germany or Denmark, but that is changing.
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  68. @The Big Red Scary
    I've been following Boston Dynamics for a few years and I have the same reaction. And my daughter was even worse when she first saw these videos, declaring that she was going to throw the dude with the hockey stick into the rubbish.

    Honestly, that is a healthy response from a girl as far as I’m concerned. They see this struggling animal-looking thing (and it really looks helpless and vulnerable) and a protective side kicks in. It’s weird, I’ve even seen videos where a predatory female animal has just orphaned some little calf by killing its mother, but it won’t eat the calf, it actually acts “mother-like” towards it. It’s amazing that the concept of nurturing motherhood can transcend species. Feral human children that have been raised by wild mother animals are a good (but rare) example.

    Peace.

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    • Replies: @The Big Red Scary
    Indeed, I think this is one of our more wholesome instincts, as mammals. But the concern is that even our most wholesome instincts are poorly adapted for many aspects of present day life, let alone the future.
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  69. @A-non
    Actually, TFR of many Eastern European countries is inflated by one minority. Gypsies. For now they are relatively low in share of the population (except Bulgaria). But have at least twice the fertility (the less functional the more fertile) of natives.
    I can see it in my own country (CZ).
    Just today in the radio, during an interview (tangential to this topic), they mentioned that number of "excluded localities" have doubled in just 10 years (!), as well as associated welfare expenses. In other unrelated interview, it was mentioned that number of pupils who failed to finish elementary education have doubled in roughly the same timeline.
    You can do your math yourself (exponential function).
    Luckily, Poland is spared this fate so far. So there is at least some hope.

    Could the lack of gypsies explain Poland’s lower fertility relative to that of other countries in central Europe? Maybe TFR of ethnic poles is no different from that of Hungarians, Romanians, Slovaks?

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  70. @AP
    Wishful thinking by pro-Russian nationalists. This has been claimed for decades, hasn't happened and isn't happening.

    Wishful thinking by an Ukrop.
    Poland did not use to be wealthy and it is still not wealthy compared to Germany or Denmark, but that is changing.

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    • Replies: @AP
    Your ilk have been making such predictions since Poland joined the EU, and such predictions have been repeatedly disproven. The latest was that Poland was supposed to have been flooded by Merkel's wave, and it didn't happen. Now you are saying that in 20 years when Poland approaches western EU in wealth it will finally get flooded. Good luck, as Russia does get progressively more Muslim.
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  71. @Mitleser
    Wishful thinking by an Ukrop.
    Poland did not use to be wealthy and it is still not wealthy compared to Germany or Denmark, but that is changing.

    Your ilk have been making such predictions since Poland joined the EU, and such predictions have been repeatedly disproven. The latest was that Poland was supposed to have been flooded by Merkel’s wave, and it didn’t happen. Now you are saying that in 20 years when Poland approaches western EU in wealth it will finally get flooded. Good luck, as Russia does get progressively more Muslim.

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  72. @Talha
    Honestly, that is a healthy response from a girl as far as I'm concerned. They see this struggling animal-looking thing (and it really looks helpless and vulnerable) and a protective side kicks in. It's weird, I've even seen videos where a predatory female animal has just orphaned some little calf by killing its mother, but it won't eat the calf, it actually acts "mother-like" towards it. It's amazing that the concept of nurturing motherhood can transcend species. Feral human children that have been raised by wild mother animals are a good (but rare) example.

    Peace.

    Indeed, I think this is one of our more wholesome instincts, as mammals. But the concern is that even our most wholesome instincts are poorly adapted for many aspects of present day life, let alone the future.

    Read More
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  73. @Anatoly Karlin

    In addition to this, I wonder what the genetic ceiling for European Muslims is.

     

    I suspect low 90s.

    That said, though, I wonder how much European Muslims’ propensity to engage in crime and target civilians is genetic versus environmental.
     
    Probably largely environmental - criminality increases by an order of magnitude when an Algerian moves from Algeria to France or Germany.

    The root cause is likely genetic, the superficial cause is environmental. As some have already noted, the tribal punishment system in the Arab world is much harsher and any concerns about ‘rule of law’ doesn’t exist. Many local institutions are controlled by various tribes at any rate, certainly outside the major cities.

    So what we have is that the punishment system is far more lax in Europe, you often won’t even go to prison and even rape typically doesn’t even get you rape. In Sweden and similar countries you instead get sent to some aging boomerhag who will try to “rehabilitate” you.

    What this means is that genuine punishment collapses and as such the true genetic potential for violence emerges. And it is genetic, because in the same lax environment crime rates for Europeans are obviously far lower. So, environmental only in a superficial sense but root cause is more likely genetic.

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    • Replies: @Anatoly Karlin
    Okay, that's a better explanation.

    Though I do think the tenfold jump is too sudden to be exclusively explained by differences in legal regimes. For instance, Balkan peoples are also significantly more criminalized when they are immigrants in Western Europe than in their own countries (not as big as the Arabs but still a factor of ~3x), but they aren't don't run on Arab style tribalism.

    http://www.unz.com/akarlin/immigrant-crime-in-germany/

    Even Poles have 3x the homicide rate in Germany. Though presumably age structure differences play a major role.
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  74. Do the numbers for Hungary make sense? That non-EU born have TFR of less than half of natives, but still make up a birth share of about 2%? Nothing about that adds up.

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    • Replies: @reiner Tor
    I don’t know, but a lot of them could be ethnic Hungarians from Serbia or Ukraine. There are even Ukrainians in Hungary, as far as I know. But of course also Chinese, Vietnamese, Arabs, etc.
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  75. As I have pointed out, Poland already has a positive net natural population increase, i.e. before net migration is taken into account. Our crude birth rates have jumped by roughly 15% in the last three years and it is likely to keep increasing with increasing prosperity and the build-out of a stronger social safety net.

    On top of that, we also have positive net migration since 2016, largely with Eastern Europe. Even our raw emigration rates have collapsed and we have started to see a small but persistent re-immigration of native Poles from abroad. Fewer and fewer Poles are now looking to settle permanently abroad and more just work for a few years abroad and then come back (to buy a house, for instance). That is a stark change from how it was a decade ago. Therefore, even without the Ukrainian boost we’ve been getting, our emigration rates will still be quite low.

    I do expect there to be increasing non-European migration, it looks like most of them will come from Nepal and India and similar countries. I think that is a mistake. The wiser Czechs are focusing on Vietnam and Mongolia. East Asians are much easier to assimilate. I’ve found Hindu South Asians to be better than muslims, but their genetic make-up make them more or less like Pakistanis but with better cultural beliefs. Nevertheless, their genetic makeup is of a lower quality.

    People often think about Indians in the US and to a lesser extent in the UK but these are a hyper-Westernised top 1% of their respective population back home. Completely unrepresentative. Much like many Iranians in the West come from the secular, upper-middle class and Westernised segments of Iran. This has led some to think that Iran is much more progressive than it actually is (it’s better than Egypt, but it’s not nearly as progressive as its boosters sell it as).

    Reversion to the mean will happen, since most of our Indians would likely be people who would be imported to do lower-middle class jobs. This process is slowly starting. Last year we got something like 8 thousand Indians, half of whom were students, but the growth rate (97% YoY) makes them already slightly larger than Belarussians(who are also growing in the 90% range YoY). That is a bad sign. I wouldn’t be surprised if Indians are the 2nd biggest new group into Poland after Ukrainians in just a few years, probably even before or at 2020.

    We won’t see many refugees, I think, but instead it will be through work-related migration. PiS is a civnat party and even if they weren’t, they can’t go full ethno-nationalist as long as they are in the EU. They can make it harder, like the Czechs, but they can’t stop it (just like the Czechs can’t either, but they instead select populations from better regions).

    Nevertheless, I’m not too worried in the long term. Birth rates will increase continously as they have over the past few years as wealth goes up. We will likely settle around 1.7 to 1.8 TFR over the coming decade.

    On top of that, given the advances in AI and the significant job destruction which will occur, the pressure to import more people will likely ease. Post-2030, I wouldn’t be surprised if cloning would be viable. We’re seeing strong but consistent progress in what was once pure science fiction. This is like the recent advances in quantum computers. Once unimaginable, now mainstream within a few short years. Poland has the best starting demographics as of now, but will move closer to where CZ is (94-95% native births) over the next 10-15 years. However, most of those non-native births will still be related peoples, the majority of whom will be Ukrainians. Post-2030 it is hard to predict. Who could have predicted the stunning AI advances in the last 5 years in the early 2000s? A lot will depend on how much job automation there will be + some forms of easier cloning. To produce temporary workers could well be worth it if you select for hardworking, compliant people doing more simple tasks like construction or cleaning.

    The situation for Poland will require imagination, but I think it could be overcome. We have a strong base. I’m far less optimistic about France or Germany. Italy is also in dire straits. Russia has a strong base as well, including an incredibly well-endowed country. Not just oil and gas, but even a lot of things which is important for renewable energy such as rare earths etc.

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    • Replies: @German_reader

    People often think about Indians in the US and to a lesser extent in the UK but these are a hyper-Westernised top 1% of their respective population back home. Completely unrepresentative. Much like many Iranians in the West come from the secular, upper-middle class and Westernised segments of Iran.
     
    Even relatively high-IQ Indians and Iranians in Western countries are problematic enough, they are well represented among subversive ethnic identity activists, "antiracists" and far leftists. Keep them out if you can.
    , @RadicalCenter
    I have affection and respect for polish people, and would gladly welcome millions more of them to my country, the USA. Especially in place of the immigrants that we are actually getting! And I’m learning about Poland from your detailed comments.

    But I don’t understand the optimism.

    You’re saying that Poland won’t stop the nascent nonwhite immigration, and the TFR will likely stay well under replacement. 1.7 to 1.8, for the next decade or so. That means, simply, that the native Poles will become a smaller, slightly older group over that period, while Indians (God Help you) and other nonwhite immigrants will increase, albeit from a very small base.

    After those ten years, there still will be new net nonwhites coming every year, and there won’t be enough polish women of childbearing age, realistically, to turn the demographic decline around more, and the nonwhite population will start to be more noticeable.

    If Poland stays in the EU, they will cease to exist as Poland in the lifetime of current Polish kids. It seems dubious that more returnees will be sufficient to make up for such a low TFR and offset new immigrants with presumably a higher TFR. Even immigrants who have two kid each will become gradually a larger share of the population, and someday a majority.

    I do have an acquaintance, a white American (German and Polish parents), who has settled in Krakow permanently, learned Polish, married a nice Polish girl, and had a baby. I think he is pursuing citizenship. Now let’s hope they have three more children! Like us, you need it desperately.

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  76. @Polish Perspective
    As I have pointed out, Poland already has a positive net natural population increase, i.e. before net migration is taken into account. Our crude birth rates have jumped by roughly 15% in the last three years and it is likely to keep increasing with increasing prosperity and the build-out of a stronger social safety net.

    On top of that, we also have positive net migration since 2016, largely with Eastern Europe. Even our raw emigration rates have collapsed and we have started to see a small but persistent re-immigration of native Poles from abroad. Fewer and fewer Poles are now looking to settle permanently abroad and more just work for a few years abroad and then come back (to buy a house, for instance). That is a stark change from how it was a decade ago. Therefore, even without the Ukrainian boost we've been getting, our emigration rates will still be quite low.

    I do expect there to be increasing non-European migration, it looks like most of them will come from Nepal and India and similar countries. I think that is a mistake. The wiser Czechs are focusing on Vietnam and Mongolia. East Asians are much easier to assimilate. I've found Hindu South Asians to be better than muslims, but their genetic make-up make them more or less like Pakistanis but with better cultural beliefs. Nevertheless, their genetic makeup is of a lower quality.

    People often think about Indians in the US and to a lesser extent in the UK but these are a hyper-Westernised top 1% of their respective population back home. Completely unrepresentative. Much like many Iranians in the West come from the secular, upper-middle class and Westernised segments of Iran. This has led some to think that Iran is much more progressive than it actually is (it's better than Egypt, but it's not nearly as progressive as its boosters sell it as).

    Reversion to the mean will happen, since most of our Indians would likely be people who would be imported to do lower-middle class jobs. This process is slowly starting. Last year we got something like 8 thousand Indians, half of whom were students, but the growth rate (97% YoY) makes them already slightly larger than Belarussians(who are also growing in the 90% range YoY). That is a bad sign. I wouldn't be surprised if Indians are the 2nd biggest new group into Poland after Ukrainians in just a few years, probably even before or at 2020.

    We won't see many refugees, I think, but instead it will be through work-related migration. PiS is a civnat party and even if they weren't, they can't go full ethno-nationalist as long as they are in the EU. They can make it harder, like the Czechs, but they can't stop it (just like the Czechs can't either, but they instead select populations from better regions).

    Nevertheless, I'm not too worried in the long term. Birth rates will increase continously as they have over the past few years as wealth goes up. We will likely settle around 1.7 to 1.8 TFR over the coming decade.

    On top of that, given the advances in AI and the significant job destruction which will occur, the pressure to import more people will likely ease. Post-2030, I wouldn't be surprised if cloning would be viable. We're seeing strong but consistent progress in what was once pure science fiction. This is like the recent advances in quantum computers. Once unimaginable, now mainstream within a few short years. Poland has the best starting demographics as of now, but will move closer to where CZ is (94-95% native births) over the next 10-15 years. However, most of those non-native births will still be related peoples, the majority of whom will be Ukrainians. Post-2030 it is hard to predict. Who could have predicted the stunning AI advances in the last 5 years in the early 2000s? A lot will depend on how much job automation there will be + some forms of easier cloning. To produce temporary workers could well be worth it if you select for hardworking, compliant people doing more simple tasks like construction or cleaning.

    The situation for Poland will require imagination, but I think it could be overcome. We have a strong base. I'm far less optimistic about France or Germany. Italy is also in dire straits. Russia has a strong base as well, including an incredibly well-endowed country. Not just oil and gas, but even a lot of things which is important for renewable energy such as rare earths etc.

    People often think about Indians in the US and to a lesser extent in the UK but these are a hyper-Westernised top 1% of their respective population back home. Completely unrepresentative. Much like many Iranians in the West come from the secular, upper-middle class and Westernised segments of Iran.

    Even relatively high-IQ Indians and Iranians in Western countries are problematic enough, they are well represented among subversive ethnic identity activists, “antiracists” and far leftists. Keep them out if you can.

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  77. @LondonBob
    Political situation is far worse in the US. Even with Trump and control of both houses changes can't be made to leal immigration, let alone ending birthright citizenship, even if Trump is able to stem some illegal flows. Add in that the boomers are starting to die off and then electoral map will change quick with Texas set flip fast when it does. The US also lacks a blood and soil identity.

    Anyway I expect things won't resolve themselves peacefully through the political system anyway.

    Taco trucks on every corner vs. barricades on every corner. Loud mariachi music vs. loud bombs. Latinas in short skirts vs. niqqabs.

    I think we’ll be okay.

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    • Agree: AP
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  78. Anon • Disclaimer says:
    @AP
    Ernst Junger who straddled the older and newer worlds had a nice quote about this:

    "What they had done in their youth, and what for milleniums had been man's vocation, joy, and pleasure - to ride a horse, to plow in the morning in the steaming fields, to walk behind the oxen, to mow the yellow grain in the blazing summer heat while streams of sweat poured down the tanned body...all this, praised by poets since time immemorial, was now past and gone. Joy in labor had disappeared.

    How can one explain this trend toward a more colorless and shallow life? Well, the work was easier, if less healthy, and it brought more money, more leisure, and perhaps more entertainment. A day in the country is long and hard. And yet the fruits of their present life were worthless compared to a single coin of their former life: a rest in the evening and a rural festivity. That they no longer knew the old kind of happiness was obvious from the discontent which spread over their features. Soon, dissatisfaction, prevailing over all their moods, became their religion..."

    Or Dostoyevsky - "The world says: "You have needs -- satisfy them. You have as much right as the rich and the mighty. Don't hesitate to satisfy your needs; indeed, expand your needs and demand more." This is the worldly doctrine of today. And they believe that this is freedom. The result for the rich is isolation and suicide, for the poor, envy and murder.”

    That’s a typical rose-tinted-glasses view of peasant life by an intellectual. See also Tolkien and Leo Tolstoy, but the latter at least LARPed as a peasant and was more realistic about what their life was like. Here’s his take on that life of spirituality and tradition (and high fertility) in Resurrection:
    “Maslova’s mother was the unmarried daughter of a village woman, employed on a dairy farm, which belonged to two maiden ladies who were landowners. This unmarried woman had a baby every year, and, as often happens among the village people, each one of these undesired babies, after it had been carefully baptised, was neglected by its mother, whom it hindered at her work, and left to starve. Five children had died in this way. They had all been baptised and then not sufficiently fed, and just left to die. The sixth baby, whose father was a gipsy tramp, would have shared the same fate, had it not so happened that one of the maiden ladies came into the farmyard to scold the dairymaids for sending up cream that smelt of the cow.”

    And Mark Twain on manual vs intellectual work:
    “There are wise people who talk ever so knowingly and complacently about “the working classes,” and satisfy themselves that a day’s hard intellectual work is very much harder than a day’s hard manual toil, and is righteously entitled to much bigger pay. Why, they really think that, you know, because they all know about the one, but haven’t tried the other. But I know all about both; and as far as I am concerned, there isn’t money enough in the universe to hire me to swing a pickaxe thirty days, but I will do the hardest kind of intellectual work for just as near nothing as you can cipher it down–and I will be satisfied, too.”

    Read More
    • Replies: @AP

    That’s a typical rose-tinted-glasses view of peasant life by an intellectual.
     
    If Tolstoy's description were typical, Russia's population would not have been booming as it was.

    One of my grandparents was a peasant from the Russian Empire. One of six children, 4 of whom survived to adulthood. Tended livestock all day when not in school, the highlight of the week was the trip to the market in town to sell stuff. First person in the family to be educated past the 3rd grade; graduate from a medical institute, escaped to the West during World War II and then started a successful medical practice in the USA.

    Often expressed amazement at how - despite the hard work, death, and poverty - the (pre-Stalin-era collectivization) peasants had been so much happier than were modern American bourgeois.

    This suggests that Junger and Dostoyevsky were right.

    I couldn't live that life. I've been ruined by modernity from childhood, as have all of us. But that's no reason to assume that we are living in a historical paradise.

    There have been surveys that explicitly ask people about their feelings - happy or not happy? The happiest places are those that tend to have religious, well-fed peasants (kinda like early 20th century southern Russia or Ukraine):

    https://www.livescience.com/59633-2017-report-on-world-happiness.html

    Paraguay, 84
    Costa Rica, 83
    Panama, 82
    Philippines, 82
    Uzbekistan, 82
    Ecuador, 81
    Guatemala, 81
    Mexico, 81
    Norway, 81
    Chile, 80
    Colombia, 80

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  79. @Anon
    That's a typical rose-tinted-glasses view of peasant life by an intellectual. See also Tolkien and Leo Tolstoy, but the latter at least LARPed as a peasant and was more realistic about what their life was like. Here's his take on that life of spirituality and tradition (and high fertility) in Resurrection:
    "Maslova’s mother was the unmarried daughter of a village woman, employed on a dairy farm, which belonged to two maiden ladies who were landowners. This unmarried woman had a baby every year, and, as often happens among the village people, each one of these undesired babies, after it had been carefully baptised, was neglected by its mother, whom it hindered at her work, and left to starve. Five children had died in this way. They had all been baptised and then not sufficiently fed, and just left to die. The sixth baby, whose father was a gipsy tramp, would have shared the same fate, had it not so happened that one of the maiden ladies came into the farmyard to scold the dairymaids for sending up cream that smelt of the cow."

    And Mark Twain on manual vs intellectual work:
    "There are wise people who talk ever so knowingly and complacently about "the working classes," and satisfy themselves that a day's hard intellectual work is very much harder than a day's hard manual toil, and is righteously entitled to much bigger pay. Why, they really think that, you know, because they all know about the one, but haven't tried the other. But I know all about both; and as far as I am concerned, there isn't money enough in the universe to hire me to swing a pickaxe thirty days, but I will do the hardest kind of intellectual work for just as near nothing as you can cipher it down--and I will be satisfied, too."

    That’s a typical rose-tinted-glasses view of peasant life by an intellectual.

    If Tolstoy’s description were typical, Russia’s population would not have been booming as it was.

    One of my grandparents was a peasant from the Russian Empire. One of six children, 4 of whom survived to adulthood. Tended livestock all day when not in school, the highlight of the week was the trip to the market in town to sell stuff. First person in the family to be educated past the 3rd grade; graduate from a medical institute, escaped to the West during World War II and then started a successful medical practice in the USA.

    Often expressed amazement at how – despite the hard work, death, and poverty – the (pre-Stalin-era collectivization) peasants had been so much happier than were modern American bourgeois.

    This suggests that Junger and Dostoyevsky were right.

    I couldn’t live that life. I’ve been ruined by modernity from childhood, as have all of us. But that’s no reason to assume that we are living in a historical paradise.

    There have been surveys that explicitly ask people about their feelings – happy or not happy? The happiest places are those that tend to have religious, well-fed peasants (kinda like early 20th century southern Russia or Ukraine):

    https://www.livescience.com/59633-2017-report-on-world-happiness.html

    Paraguay, 84
    Costa Rica, 83
    Panama, 82
    Philippines, 82
    Uzbekistan, 82
    Ecuador, 81
    Guatemala, 81
    Mexico, 81
    Norway, 81
    Chile, 80
    Colombia, 80

    Read More
    • Replies: @Dmitry

    If Tolstoy’s description were typical, Russia’s population would not have been booming as it was.
     
    Because there was no birth-control, and having sex is your only entertainment available (everyone was illiterate so you couldn't even read a Tolstoy to dispel your boredom).

    As for asking Graf Tolstoy to tell us about our ancestor's 'happiness' - it's like asking a goldfish owner to describe the happiness of the fish he kept inside a small glass tank.

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  80. @Polish Perspective
    The root cause is likely genetic, the superficial cause is environmental. As some have already noted, the tribal punishment system in the Arab world is much harsher and any concerns about 'rule of law' doesn't exist. Many local institutions are controlled by various tribes at any rate, certainly outside the major cities.

    So what we have is that the punishment system is far more lax in Europe, you often won't even go to prison and even rape typically doesn't even get you rape. In Sweden and similar countries you instead get sent to some aging boomerhag who will try to "rehabilitate" you.

    What this means is that genuine punishment collapses and as such the true genetic potential for violence emerges. And it is genetic, because in the same lax environment crime rates for Europeans are obviously far lower. So, environmental only in a superficial sense but root cause is more likely genetic.

    Okay, that’s a better explanation.

    Though I do think the tenfold jump is too sudden to be exclusively explained by differences in legal regimes. For instance, Balkan peoples are also significantly more criminalized when they are immigrants in Western Europe than in their own countries (not as big as the Arabs but still a factor of ~3x), but they aren’t don’t run on Arab style tribalism.

    http://www.unz.com/akarlin/immigrant-crime-in-germany/

    Even Poles have 3x the homicide rate in Germany. Though presumably age structure differences play a major role.

    Read More
    • Replies: @Polish Perspective
    Aside from age-structure, the kind of Poles migrants in Germany have been drawn disproportionately from the bottom half, and often bottom third, of the social pyramid, which I presume would increase crime rates.

    However, I wouldn't be surprised if Poles also had a more genetic predisposition to violent crime than Germans, even once you factor in these social factors. The reasons for this could partly be epigenetic, at least if we are to believe Ryan Faulk who has written interestingly, but perhaps not yet completely convincingly, at length on this matter:

    http://thealternativehypothesis.org/index.php/2017/03/15/first-worldism-part-5-the-european-revolution/

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  81. @polskijoe
    The whole worlds fertility rates are dropping.

    Average was 5 kids. 1960.
    Now its 2.5 kids. 2015.

    You need massive culture change in the West, and get those scum leaders out or change their minds.
    I think condoms, birth control, feminism, and pornography are the biggest reasons for problems.
    Also people are lazier, more depressed, people fatter, etc.

    Also people are lazier, more depressed, people fatter, etc.

    metabolic syndrome – there’s something in the food/water/air

    Read More
    • Replies: @polskijoe
    Food quality has dropped (fruits are example are less nutrious, tons of artifical foods).
    GMOs.
    Water has more chemicals than ever. People are throwing in things into the water supply like never before. There was a massive report on chemicals in the US. It suprised me.

    Im not saying its true, but maybe elites continue eugenics and have somethign in vaccines.
    If it is true, they are evil.
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  82. @Mr. XYZ
    @AP: Do you have a source for the 40-50% Europeans figure for Mexicans?

    Also, what is interesting is that U.S. Hispanics perform about as well as Greeks do on PISA:

    https://isteve.blogspot.com/2013/12/overall-pisa-rankings-include-america.html

    Their performance looks bad in large part due to the fact that U.S. Whites perform very well even in comparison to some other White countries.

    In addition to this, I wonder what the genetic ceiling for European Muslims is. Would it be similar to the Greek/Hispanic level if they were well-nourished and stopped engaging in cousin marriage?

    Also, I agree that it is undesirable to have a lot of crime-prone people in one's country. That said, though, I wonder how much European Muslims' propensity to engage in crime and target civilians is genetic versus environmental. After all, it's certainly not like some Europeans--such as some Balts and Ukrainians--werenot as savage as Muslim terrorists are today. Indeed, all one has to do is take a look at the behavior of some Balts and Ukrainians during the Holocaust to see how even "civilized" Christian Europeans can descend to levels of barbarity similar to those of Muslim terrorists in the 21st century.

    I wonder how much European Muslims’ propensity to engage in crime and target civilians is genetic versus environmental.

    clearly both

    a genetic base which their own culture evolved to compensate for – remove the cultural restraints and the genetics come to the fore

    for example a population who will gladly rape the women and children of non relatives that happen tp stray into the wrong neighborhood -> culture of keeping women and children locked away. if you transfer those genetics to a culture which doesn’t lock their women and children away -> mass child rape.

    Read More
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  83. @AP
    Ernst Junger who straddled the older and newer worlds had a nice quote about this:

    "What they had done in their youth, and what for milleniums had been man's vocation, joy, and pleasure - to ride a horse, to plow in the morning in the steaming fields, to walk behind the oxen, to mow the yellow grain in the blazing summer heat while streams of sweat poured down the tanned body...all this, praised by poets since time immemorial, was now past and gone. Joy in labor had disappeared.

    How can one explain this trend toward a more colorless and shallow life? Well, the work was easier, if less healthy, and it brought more money, more leisure, and perhaps more entertainment. A day in the country is long and hard. And yet the fruits of their present life were worthless compared to a single coin of their former life: a rest in the evening and a rural festivity. That they no longer knew the old kind of happiness was obvious from the discontent which spread over their features. Soon, dissatisfaction, prevailing over all their moods, became their religion..."

    Or Dostoyevsky - "The world says: "You have needs -- satisfy them. You have as much right as the rich and the mighty. Don't hesitate to satisfy your needs; indeed, expand your needs and demand more." This is the worldly doctrine of today. And they believe that this is freedom. The result for the rich is isolation and suicide, for the poor, envy and murder.”

    It’s more just that people romanticize their youth.

    Ernst Jünger, although he was from a comfortable middle class background (far from living as a peasant) – grew up in the countryside. His youth and country-side life were fused for him. (And later, more strangely and tenuously, he romanticizes the First World War (I have read a few years ago his book ‘The storms of steel’ – and remember how he writes of these ‘romantic summer nights’ lying underneath ‘storms’ of artillery bombardment -his concept of a nice evening is not very usual, to put it mildly).

    Writers that grew up in cities, will romanticize just as much their youth in the city, of taking girls to the cinema and staying up all night in cafes.

    Neither gives us a very objective account. But I can say only in my own viewpoint, that life in the cities is pretty good nowadays, if you can make some free time for yourself. And I’ll certainly take it over being stuck all my life in a village.

    Read More
    • Replies: @AP

    It’s more just that people romanticize their youth.
     
    Sure, there is certainly an element to that. But if it were really so horrible, it wouldn't be possible to idolize it. I doubt that people undergoing collectivization, or famine, idolize their youth under such circumstances. Normal, hardworking, peasant life - they do.

    Also, in modern surveys, societies that are most like those of old rural Europe (Paraguay) where people had to work hard, were poor, but were also religious and did not face epidemics or starvation (as in Africa) are the happiest - so I think this also suggests that there is more to such observations than simply a rosy portrait of youth.

    But I can say only in my own viewpoint, that life in the cities is pretty good nowadays, if you can make some free time for yourself. And I’ll certainly take it over being stuck all my life in a village.
     
    I prefer an old house in a small town, an hour or so from the city. I'm no longer 20.

    As we have seen, poor (but not starvation-poor) Catholic rural countries are the happiest places on Earth. In terms of low suicide rate, they share the lowest rate with Caribbean and Muslim nations:

    https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_sovereign_states_by_suicide_rate
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  84. @AP

    That’s a typical rose-tinted-glasses view of peasant life by an intellectual.
     
    If Tolstoy's description were typical, Russia's population would not have been booming as it was.

    One of my grandparents was a peasant from the Russian Empire. One of six children, 4 of whom survived to adulthood. Tended livestock all day when not in school, the highlight of the week was the trip to the market in town to sell stuff. First person in the family to be educated past the 3rd grade; graduate from a medical institute, escaped to the West during World War II and then started a successful medical practice in the USA.

    Often expressed amazement at how - despite the hard work, death, and poverty - the (pre-Stalin-era collectivization) peasants had been so much happier than were modern American bourgeois.

    This suggests that Junger and Dostoyevsky were right.

    I couldn't live that life. I've been ruined by modernity from childhood, as have all of us. But that's no reason to assume that we are living in a historical paradise.

    There have been surveys that explicitly ask people about their feelings - happy or not happy? The happiest places are those that tend to have religious, well-fed peasants (kinda like early 20th century southern Russia or Ukraine):

    https://www.livescience.com/59633-2017-report-on-world-happiness.html

    Paraguay, 84
    Costa Rica, 83
    Panama, 82
    Philippines, 82
    Uzbekistan, 82
    Ecuador, 81
    Guatemala, 81
    Mexico, 81
    Norway, 81
    Chile, 80
    Colombia, 80

    If Tolstoy’s description were typical, Russia’s population would not have been booming as it was.

    Because there was no birth-control, and having sex is your only entertainment available (everyone was illiterate so you couldn’t even read a Tolstoy to dispel your boredom).

    As for asking Graf Tolstoy to tell us about our ancestor’s ‘happiness’ – it’s like asking a goldfish owner to describe the happiness of the fish he kept inside a small glass tank.

    Read More
    • Replies: @Dmitry

    .
    As for asking Graf Tolstoy to tell us about our ancestor’s ‘happiness’ – it’s like asking a goldfish owner to describe the happiness of the fish he kept inside a small glass tank.
     
    Oops this part of my reply was misreading the comments above, as usual.

    So... Tolstoy also agrees - the peasant life was not so idyllic.

    , @reiner Tor
    I think it’s difficult to say what makes you happy, but my personal experience is that in the presence of unnatural stimuli it is usually not what you would choose yourself. For example some fifteen years ago I went to work in Budapest at a distant part of the city. It took almost an hour to get there by suburban rail and tram (two tram lines, had to change) and in the evening sometimes even longer than an hour to get back. I always had a book with me and was reading it if it was possible, on the tram, the suburban train (in the morning it was too crowded, but in the evening not so), or at the stops waiting. A few months later I changed to a different job which was much closer and I only had to use the suburban rail and two stops with the tram, all told twenty minutes both ways. So now I could only read on the way home at the suburban train, and didn’t even read there because it felt too short to start reading. The time I saved was spent watching TV. I felt I wasted my time and I really longed for the long commutes on the tram when I did something valuable instead of wasting my time watching rubbish, but it took moving into a different apartment without a TV (again, reduced freedom) to break the bad habit.

    Somehow I needed the reduced freedom to be able to do something after which I didn’t feel I wasted my time. Reading books was obviously better than watching TV, but the latter gave more instant gratification.

    I wouldn’t dismiss that rural life could give you more happiness simply because we don’t choose it. We tend to make very bad choices.
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  85. @Dmitry

    If Tolstoy’s description were typical, Russia’s population would not have been booming as it was.
     
    Because there was no birth-control, and having sex is your only entertainment available (everyone was illiterate so you couldn't even read a Tolstoy to dispel your boredom).

    As for asking Graf Tolstoy to tell us about our ancestor's 'happiness' - it's like asking a goldfish owner to describe the happiness of the fish he kept inside a small glass tank.

    .
    As for asking Graf Tolstoy to tell us about our ancestor’s ‘happiness’ – it’s like asking a goldfish owner to describe the happiness of the fish he kept inside a small glass tank.

    Oops this part of my reply was misreading the comments above, as usual.

    So… Tolstoy also agrees – the peasant life was not so idyllic.

    Read More
    • Replies: @AP
    Tolstoy strikes me as being one of those patronizing semi-clueless "do-gooders" with respect to the peasants. I don't think he really understood them that well. I would compare him to rich liberals who idolize third world peoples or minorities without truly understanding them.
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  86. @Dmitry

    .
    As for asking Graf Tolstoy to tell us about our ancestor’s ‘happiness’ – it’s like asking a goldfish owner to describe the happiness of the fish he kept inside a small glass tank.
     
    Oops this part of my reply was misreading the comments above, as usual.

    So... Tolstoy also agrees - the peasant life was not so idyllic.

    Tolstoy strikes me as being one of those patronizing semi-clueless “do-gooders” with respect to the peasants. I don’t think he really understood them that well. I would compare him to rich liberals who idolize third world peoples or minorities without truly understanding them.

    Read More
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  87. @Dmitry
    It's more just that people romanticize their youth.

    Ernst Jünger, although he was from a comfortable middle class background (far from living as a peasant) - grew up in the countryside. His youth and country-side life were fused for him. (And later, more strangely and tenuously, he romanticizes the First World War (I have read a few years ago his book 'The storms of steel' - and remember how he writes of these 'romantic summer nights' lying underneath 'storms' of artillery bombardment -his concept of a nice evening is not very usual, to put it mildly).

    Writers that grew up in cities, will romanticize just as much their youth in the city, of taking girls to the cinema and staying up all night in cafes.

    Neither gives us a very objective account. But I can say only in my own viewpoint, that life in the cities is pretty good nowadays, if you can make some free time for yourself. And I'll certainly take it over being stuck all my life in a village.

    It’s more just that people romanticize their youth.

    Sure, there is certainly an element to that. But if it were really so horrible, it wouldn’t be possible to idolize it. I doubt that people undergoing collectivization, or famine, idolize their youth under such circumstances. Normal, hardworking, peasant life – they do.

    Also, in modern surveys, societies that are most like those of old rural Europe (Paraguay) where people had to work hard, were poor, but were also religious and did not face epidemics or starvation (as in Africa) are the happiest – so I think this also suggests that there is more to such observations than simply a rosy portrait of youth.

    But I can say only in my own viewpoint, that life in the cities is pretty good nowadays, if you can make some free time for yourself. And I’ll certainly take it over being stuck all my life in a village.

    I prefer an old house in a small town, an hour or so from the city. I’m no longer 20.

    As we have seen, poor (but not starvation-poor) Catholic rural countries are the happiest places on Earth. In terms of low suicide rate, they share the lowest rate with Caribbean and Muslim nations:

    https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_sovereign_states_by_suicide_rate

    Read More
    • Replies: @Anon
    Thanks for that but it should also be remembered for what it may be worth that the degree of stigma attaching to suicide may be much less in some places than in others (e.g. East Asia).
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  88. @AP
    So without taking into account further migration, were are looking at a steady state population of about 137 million people in Russia (many of whom aren't ethnic Slavs), 116 million in Iran, 64 million people in France (many of whom aren't ethnic French), 60 million people in Germany (many of whom aren't ethnic Germans), 33 million people in Ukraine (almost all Ukrainians or Russians), 29 million people in Poland (almost all Poles or Ukrainians).

    Western Europe is basically finished as a player of any significance on the world stage.

    Agreed.

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  89. @Mitleser

    29 million people in Poland (almost all Poles or Ukrainians).
     
    Unlikely. Poland is getting wealthier and freedom of movement means that it is will be open to immigration.

    Depends on the government and elites in power.
    In “Democracy” things can change on such issues.

    Atm quite antiimmigrant especially Muslims.

    Europeans/white may flee eventually from West,
    but Polish is a hard language to learn and I dont see most of them learning it.

    Also 1 million Ukrainian have arrived (the total may be 1.5 million).
    My relative who allmost lost her life to Bandera now has cleaning ladies from Ukraine.
    My family doesnt like it.

    This whole Ukraine thing is a mess.

    Read More
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  90. @notanon

    Also people are lazier, more depressed, people fatter, etc.
     
    metabolic syndrome - there's something in the food/water/air

    Food quality has dropped (fruits are example are less nutrious, tons of artifical foods).
    GMOs.
    Water has more chemicals than ever. People are throwing in things into the water supply like never before. There was a massive report on chemicals in the US. It suprised me.

    Im not saying its true, but maybe elites continue eugenics and have somethign in vaccines.
    If it is true, they are evil.

    Read More
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  91. @Dmitry

    Religion is about having children – that is how religions have historically developed. Religion is an evolutionary tool that helps tribes or societies to go on, mainly by having stable families with children.

     

    The important and positive element in religion (or our religious impulse) is stoicism, asceticism and metaphysics. This is the mysticism trend which is cultivated in certain religious traditions - and described by writers like Aldous Huxley.

    The other part of religion is, how it leaves the opening for cult-leaders to brainwash their flocks into conformity, taking advantage of the vulnerability in our herd-like instincts, and this is what Marx simplistically reduced religion to as 'opium of the masses'.

    Most religions contain both of these elements in various mixes - even in Islam, there is, for example, the Sufi tradition.

    Islam is not ascetic. At all.

    Read More
    • Replies: @Dmitry

    Islam is not ascetic. At all.

     

    But within Islam, there also developed a mystical and ascetic tradition - Sufism.
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  92. @Anatoly Karlin
    Okay, that's a better explanation.

    Though I do think the tenfold jump is too sudden to be exclusively explained by differences in legal regimes. For instance, Balkan peoples are also significantly more criminalized when they are immigrants in Western Europe than in their own countries (not as big as the Arabs but still a factor of ~3x), but they aren't don't run on Arab style tribalism.

    http://www.unz.com/akarlin/immigrant-crime-in-germany/

    Even Poles have 3x the homicide rate in Germany. Though presumably age structure differences play a major role.

    Aside from age-structure, the kind of Poles migrants in Germany have been drawn disproportionately from the bottom half, and often bottom third, of the social pyramid, which I presume would increase crime rates.

    However, I wouldn’t be surprised if Poles also had a more genetic predisposition to violent crime than Germans, even once you factor in these social factors. The reasons for this could partly be epigenetic, at least if we are to believe Ryan Faulk who has written interestingly, but perhaps not yet completely convincingly, at length on this matter:

    http://thealternativehypothesis.org/index.php/2017/03/15/first-worldism-part-5-the-european-revolution/

    Read More
    • Replies: @Anatoly Karlin
    Haven't seen this before - thanks!

    https://i.imgur.com/0QCksN5.png

    Bogoyavlenskiy et. al also found some historical homicide data for Russia from 1880 on: During the mid 1980s-early 1990s, Russia appears to have had a spike up to medieval levels of homicide. More recent data shows Russia with a homicide rate of around 9.5, which is probably about as high as England in 1450.
     
    http://journals.sagepub.com/doi/pdf/10.1177/1088767912449624

    Looks like Russia's "natural" homicide rate is around 5/100,000, which is similar to Italy a century ago - and not cardinally different to Japan's "old" homicide rate of 3.5/100,000.

    Also supports the idea that the homicide surge of the late Soviet era to ~2015 was primarily a result of the alcoholism epidemic. The latter has greatly retreated in the past decade, and the homicide rate in 2017 had fallen to 6.0/100,000.
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  93. @polskijoe
    The whole worlds fertility rates are dropping.

    Average was 5 kids. 1960.
    Now its 2.5 kids. 2015.

    You need massive culture change in the West, and get those scum leaders out or change their minds.
    I think condoms, birth control, feminism, and pornography are the biggest reasons for problems.
    Also people are lazier, more depressed, people fatter, etc.

    I think condoms, birth control, feminism, and pornography are the biggest reasons for problems.
    Also people are lazier, more depressed, people fatter, etc.

    Those are certainly factors, but there are others. There is the absence of any genuine sense of community. People see themselves as isolated individuals. Why bother raising kids if you don’t believe you’re part of something bigger than yourself?

    And there’s the absence of extended families. Extended families make child-rearing much much easier and more rewarding for women.

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  94. @Dmitry

    If Tolstoy’s description were typical, Russia’s population would not have been booming as it was.
     
    Because there was no birth-control, and having sex is your only entertainment available (everyone was illiterate so you couldn't even read a Tolstoy to dispel your boredom).

    As for asking Graf Tolstoy to tell us about our ancestor's 'happiness' - it's like asking a goldfish owner to describe the happiness of the fish he kept inside a small glass tank.

    I think it’s difficult to say what makes you happy, but my personal experience is that in the presence of unnatural stimuli it is usually not what you would choose yourself. For example some fifteen years ago I went to work in Budapest at a distant part of the city. It took almost an hour to get there by suburban rail and tram (two tram lines, had to change) and in the evening sometimes even longer than an hour to get back. I always had a book with me and was reading it if it was possible, on the tram, the suburban train (in the morning it was too crowded, but in the evening not so), or at the stops waiting. A few months later I changed to a different job which was much closer and I only had to use the suburban rail and two stops with the tram, all told twenty minutes both ways. So now I could only read on the way home at the suburban train, and didn’t even read there because it felt too short to start reading. The time I saved was spent watching TV. I felt I wasted my time and I really longed for the long commutes on the tram when I did something valuable instead of wasting my time watching rubbish, but it took moving into a different apartment without a TV (again, reduced freedom) to break the bad habit.

    Somehow I needed the reduced freedom to be able to do something after which I didn’t feel I wasted my time. Reading books was obviously better than watching TV, but the latter gave more instant gratification.

    I wouldn’t dismiss that rural life could give you more happiness simply because we don’t choose it. We tend to make very bad choices.

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    • Agree: AP, RadicalCenter
    • Replies: @Dmitry

    A few months later I changed to a different job which was much closer and I only had to use the suburban rail and two stops with the tram, all told twenty minutes both ways. So now I could only read on the way home at the suburban train, and didn’t even read there because it felt too short to start reading. The time I saved was spent watching TV. I felt I wasted my time and I really longed for the long commutes on the tram when I did something valuable instead of wasting my time watching rubbish, but it took moving into a different apartment without a TV (again, reduced freedom) to break the bad habit.
     
    I've had the same experience. But it is a pure lack of self-discipline, and cause of your bad habits is not the lack of a train journey. You had no-one to blame your lack of reading on than yourself, and could have changed it at any moment. While the situation for the peasant is rather the opposite.

    It's also ironic that you use this example. Our peasant ancestors were illiterate, and they had no choice over the matter that they would never enjoy the pleasure of reading.

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  95. @Jeremy Cooper
    Do the numbers for Hungary make sense? That non-EU born have TFR of less than half of natives, but still make up a birth share of about 2%? Nothing about that adds up.

    I don’t know, but a lot of them could be ethnic Hungarians from Serbia or Ukraine. There are even Ukrainians in Hungary, as far as I know. But of course also Chinese, Vietnamese, Arabs, etc.

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  96. @Polish Perspective
    Aside from age-structure, the kind of Poles migrants in Germany have been drawn disproportionately from the bottom half, and often bottom third, of the social pyramid, which I presume would increase crime rates.

    However, I wouldn't be surprised if Poles also had a more genetic predisposition to violent crime than Germans, even once you factor in these social factors. The reasons for this could partly be epigenetic, at least if we are to believe Ryan Faulk who has written interestingly, but perhaps not yet completely convincingly, at length on this matter:

    http://thealternativehypothesis.org/index.php/2017/03/15/first-worldism-part-5-the-european-revolution/

    Haven’t seen this before – thanks!

    Bogoyavlenskiy et. al also found some historical homicide data for Russia from 1880 on: During the mid 1980s-early 1990s, Russia appears to have had a spike up to medieval levels of homicide. More recent data shows Russia with a homicide rate of around 9.5, which is probably about as high as England in 1450.

    http://journals.sagepub.com/doi/pdf/10.1177/1088767912449624

    Looks like Russia’s “natural” homicide rate is around 5/100,000, which is similar to Italy a century ago – and not cardinally different to Japan’s “old” homicide rate of 3.5/100,000.

    Also supports the idea that the homicide surge of the late Soviet era to ~2015 was primarily a result of the alcoholism epidemic. The latter has greatly retreated in the past decade, and the homicide rate in 2017 had fallen to 6.0/100,000.

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  97. @Beckow

    You need massive culture change in the West, and get those scum leaders out or change their minds.
     
    They will never change their minds, it is 'who they are'. The good news is that they will be gone because they don't value having and raising children. The bad news is that they might destroy our societies. We are being replaced because that's the easiest way forward they can think off.

    They will never change their minds, it is ‘who they are’. The good news is that they will be gone because they don’t value having and raising children.

    They don’t need to raise children. Once our children go to university, or even high school, they belong to the liberal globalists/SJWs. That’s how liberal globalists/SJWs reproduce, by stealing other people’s children. That’s been their strategy for more than half a century. It’s been spectacularly successful. It’s fascinating from an evolutionary point of view.

    Of course conservatives never noticed it was happening, or if they did notice they did nothing because they were too busy with more important things, like tax cuts for the rich.

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    • Replies: @RadicalCenter
    Evolutionarily, the genes of those who do not reproduce, die out, whether or not they brainwash our kids.

    And by the way, “they” won’t have our children.
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  98. @Talha
    Robot Lives Matter - LOL!

    Though I wonder, those do elicit a human gut response from me - I wonder what that means for "companionship" robots. Will humans be able to get past the idea they are not looking at a machine?

    Weird stuff...

    Though I wonder, those do elicit a human gut response from me – I wonder what that means for “companionship” robots. Will humans be able to get past the idea they are not looking at a machine?

    I imagine that the manufacturers of such robots would go to a great deal of trouble to make sure that the robots had maximum cuteness factors. They’ll probably look like anime girls.

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  99. @Polish Perspective
    As I have pointed out, Poland already has a positive net natural population increase, i.e. before net migration is taken into account. Our crude birth rates have jumped by roughly 15% in the last three years and it is likely to keep increasing with increasing prosperity and the build-out of a stronger social safety net.

    On top of that, we also have positive net migration since 2016, largely with Eastern Europe. Even our raw emigration rates have collapsed and we have started to see a small but persistent re-immigration of native Poles from abroad. Fewer and fewer Poles are now looking to settle permanently abroad and more just work for a few years abroad and then come back (to buy a house, for instance). That is a stark change from how it was a decade ago. Therefore, even without the Ukrainian boost we've been getting, our emigration rates will still be quite low.

    I do expect there to be increasing non-European migration, it looks like most of them will come from Nepal and India and similar countries. I think that is a mistake. The wiser Czechs are focusing on Vietnam and Mongolia. East Asians are much easier to assimilate. I've found Hindu South Asians to be better than muslims, but their genetic make-up make them more or less like Pakistanis but with better cultural beliefs. Nevertheless, their genetic makeup is of a lower quality.

    People often think about Indians in the US and to a lesser extent in the UK but these are a hyper-Westernised top 1% of their respective population back home. Completely unrepresentative. Much like many Iranians in the West come from the secular, upper-middle class and Westernised segments of Iran. This has led some to think that Iran is much more progressive than it actually is (it's better than Egypt, but it's not nearly as progressive as its boosters sell it as).

    Reversion to the mean will happen, since most of our Indians would likely be people who would be imported to do lower-middle class jobs. This process is slowly starting. Last year we got something like 8 thousand Indians, half of whom were students, but the growth rate (97% YoY) makes them already slightly larger than Belarussians(who are also growing in the 90% range YoY). That is a bad sign. I wouldn't be surprised if Indians are the 2nd biggest new group into Poland after Ukrainians in just a few years, probably even before or at 2020.

    We won't see many refugees, I think, but instead it will be through work-related migration. PiS is a civnat party and even if they weren't, they can't go full ethno-nationalist as long as they are in the EU. They can make it harder, like the Czechs, but they can't stop it (just like the Czechs can't either, but they instead select populations from better regions).

    Nevertheless, I'm not too worried in the long term. Birth rates will increase continously as they have over the past few years as wealth goes up. We will likely settle around 1.7 to 1.8 TFR over the coming decade.

    On top of that, given the advances in AI and the significant job destruction which will occur, the pressure to import more people will likely ease. Post-2030, I wouldn't be surprised if cloning would be viable. We're seeing strong but consistent progress in what was once pure science fiction. This is like the recent advances in quantum computers. Once unimaginable, now mainstream within a few short years. Poland has the best starting demographics as of now, but will move closer to where CZ is (94-95% native births) over the next 10-15 years. However, most of those non-native births will still be related peoples, the majority of whom will be Ukrainians. Post-2030 it is hard to predict. Who could have predicted the stunning AI advances in the last 5 years in the early 2000s? A lot will depend on how much job automation there will be + some forms of easier cloning. To produce temporary workers could well be worth it if you select for hardworking, compliant people doing more simple tasks like construction or cleaning.

    The situation for Poland will require imagination, but I think it could be overcome. We have a strong base. I'm far less optimistic about France or Germany. Italy is also in dire straits. Russia has a strong base as well, including an incredibly well-endowed country. Not just oil and gas, but even a lot of things which is important for renewable energy such as rare earths etc.

    I have affection and respect for polish people, and would gladly welcome millions more of them to my country, the USA. Especially in place of the immigrants that we are actually getting! And I’m learning about Poland from your detailed comments.

    But I don’t understand the optimism.

    You’re saying that Poland won’t stop the nascent nonwhite immigration, and the TFR will likely stay well under replacement. 1.7 to 1.8, for the next decade or so. That means, simply, that the native Poles will become a smaller, slightly older group over that period, while Indians (God Help you) and other nonwhite immigrants will increase, albeit from a very small base.

    After those ten years, there still will be new net nonwhites coming every year, and there won’t be enough polish women of childbearing age, realistically, to turn the demographic decline around more, and the nonwhite population will start to be more noticeable.

    If Poland stays in the EU, they will cease to exist as Poland in the lifetime of current Polish kids. It seems dubious that more returnees will be sufficient to make up for such a low TFR and offset new immigrants with presumably a higher TFR. Even immigrants who have two kid each will become gradually a larger share of the population, and someday a majority.

    I do have an acquaintance, a white American (German and Polish parents), who has settled in Krakow permanently, learned Polish, married a nice Polish girl, and had a baby. I think he is pursuing citizenship. Now let’s hope they have three more children! Like us, you need it desperately.

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    • Replies: @polskijoe
    Thanks. And I had the similar thoughts. PPs post sounded a little too positive for me.
    Im worried about the demographics too. And still most Poles are more pro EU than average.
    (that would change to one of the least if Muslims were forced in large numbers into Poland).

    Although I dont think Europeans should move to the US. Europe needs to keep Europeans.
    , @Polish Perspective
    Thank you for your kind words, first of all. Given the effort you put into to write that, the least I can do is to return the favour and address some of the key concerns your raised.

    You’re saying that Poland won’t stop the nascent nonwhite immigration, and the TFR will likely stay well under replacement. 1.7 to 1.8, for the next decade or so. That means, simply, that the native Poles will become a smaller, slightly older group over that period, while Indians (God Help you) and other nonwhite immigrants will increase, albeit from a very small base.

     

    Yes, but it is important to understand that rising Polish fertility will counteract some of these demographics changes. Secondly, a significant chunk of the people we are getting now are temporary workers. Of course experience in Germany shows us that "temporary" workers could very well end up permanent, but generally when you have an overwhelmingly male worker population, their reproduction capacity is quite low. Getting Polish citizenship is still quite difficult. It often requires 10 years of continuous residency and strong fluency in Polish. The government has also recently tightened the requirements for those who marry a Polish spouse, too. So even that route is not nearly as simple as it used to be, and far harsher than the norm in most Western countries.

    Most of the jobs being performed by various Indians are those of errand boys and similar jobs, where linguistic fluency is quite low. In short, while the amount of non-whites will increase, the amount of new Polish citizens will be significantly lower. Plus, I expect many of the workers to be replaced by other and new workers, thereby impeding citizenship acquisition.


    After those ten years, there still will be new net nonwhites coming every year
     
    Correct, but if there is a "churning" of workers, that means that they don't stay permanently but are replaced. This is yet to be seen if it happens, but so far this is the pattern by and large, at least for non-Europeans. It could change, but it also could stay the same. It's impossible to say right now. However, even if it changes, we wouldn't see the effect of that at least 15 years down the line due to slow citizenship acquisition.

    If Poland stays in the EU, they will cease to exist as Poland in the lifetime of current Polish kids.
     
    Yes, but the lifetime of current Polish kids is close to 80 years of life expectancy. We're talking the year 2100. I think we will see much more drastic technological change in the 2030-2040 period which would dramatically reduce the need for human workers. In fact, this process is already ongoing. So I focus more on the next twenty years which is a more realistic timeframe.

    It seems dubious that more returnees will be sufficient to make up for such a low TFR and offset new immigrants with presumably a higher TFR.
     
    As AK has pointed out, it is a myth that a country with sub-2.1 TFR keeps losing population endlessly. You reach a "steady state" population at some point. Poland currently has around 400,000 births per year. It could increase that to 500,000 realistically, but let's say it stays at 400,000. It's life expectancy is around 78.5 years old but still rising. Especially for men there is a large upside for improvement. That would imply a steady-state population of around 35 million people from today's 38.5 million. Hardly a catastrophic drop. If fertility improves further, the steady state-population would be even higher.

    I do have an acquaintance, a white American (German and Polish parents), who has settled in Krakow permanently, learned Polish, married a nice Polish girl, and had a baby. I think he is pursuing citizenship. Now let’s hope they have three more children! Like us, you need it desperately.
     
    That's good to hear. I'm very pro-kids but as I pointed out, I think cloning will be a viable solution in 10-15 years hence. We won't need perfect clones with a life expectancy of 80+ years. It's enough for them to be "good enough" and do simple tasks like construction work, cleaning work and so on. We're seeing radical improvements in cloning in the last few years, just as we've seen radical improvements in AI and quantum computing. What was once unthinkable has become plausible.

    However even if cloning doesn't take off, I still think that we will see a significant decoupling of labour intensity and GDP growth due to advancements in AI, automation and robotics. We will also likely see human life extension. Plus, with radical decreases in gene therapy already occurring as I write this, selecting healthier and better genes in our kids will be viable. It should also help fertility as insemination will be better and more precisely targeted than IVF, which is an old technology at this stage.

    There's always a danger of being too much of a cornucopian, but I still believe that the progress we are seeing now in these various fields are not a fluke, nor is it an empty hypetrain. It is genuine progress and the people who have been in these fields for decades, whether it is AI, cloning, quantum computing, gene therapy etc will tell you as much, and many of them are often converted skeptics who didn't even believe that some of the progress we're seeing now would either A) happen at all or B) happen nearly as quickly. But it is.

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  100. @dfordoom

    They will never change their minds, it is ‘who they are’. The good news is that they will be gone because they don’t value having and raising children.
     
    They don't need to raise children. Once our children go to university, or even high school, they belong to the liberal globalists/SJWs. That's how liberal globalists/SJWs reproduce, by stealing other people's children. That's been their strategy for more than half a century. It's been spectacularly successful. It's fascinating from an evolutionary point of view.

    Of course conservatives never noticed it was happening, or if they did notice they did nothing because they were too busy with more important things, like tax cuts for the rich.

    Evolutionarily, the genes of those who do not reproduce, die out, whether or not they brainwash our kids.

    And by the way, “they” won’t have our children.

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    • Replies: @dfordoom

    And by the way, “they” won’t have our children.
     
    They've already got them.
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  101. @Hippopotamusdrome
    Balts and Ukrainians aren't White.


    Saturday Night Live Transcripts
    Season 14: Episode 3 [1988]
    88c: John Larroquette / Randy Newman
    Vote Bush III
    [ show each President's head encircled over a North European country ]
    Announcer: Franklin Delano Roosevelt was of white northern European heritage.
    Thomas Jefferson was of white northern European heritage.
    John F. Kennedy was of white northern European heritage.
    George Herbert Walker Bush is of white northern European heritage.
    [ show Dukakis' encircled just above the Mediterranean Sea ]
    But Michael Dukakis?
    Bush. He's whiter.
    [ SUPER: "Bush. He's Whiter." ]

     

    Citing a tv show, esp. the wildly overrated propaganda mill called “SNL”, adds no credibility. And it’s just not real funny either, in this case.

    Get rid of the damn tv already and get out into life.

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  102. @reiner Tor
    I think it’s difficult to say what makes you happy, but my personal experience is that in the presence of unnatural stimuli it is usually not what you would choose yourself. For example some fifteen years ago I went to work in Budapest at a distant part of the city. It took almost an hour to get there by suburban rail and tram (two tram lines, had to change) and in the evening sometimes even longer than an hour to get back. I always had a book with me and was reading it if it was possible, on the tram, the suburban train (in the morning it was too crowded, but in the evening not so), or at the stops waiting. A few months later I changed to a different job which was much closer and I only had to use the suburban rail and two stops with the tram, all told twenty minutes both ways. So now I could only read on the way home at the suburban train, and didn’t even read there because it felt too short to start reading. The time I saved was spent watching TV. I felt I wasted my time and I really longed for the long commutes on the tram when I did something valuable instead of wasting my time watching rubbish, but it took moving into a different apartment without a TV (again, reduced freedom) to break the bad habit.

    Somehow I needed the reduced freedom to be able to do something after which I didn’t feel I wasted my time. Reading books was obviously better than watching TV, but the latter gave more instant gratification.

    I wouldn’t dismiss that rural life could give you more happiness simply because we don’t choose it. We tend to make very bad choices.

    A few months later I changed to a different job which was much closer and I only had to use the suburban rail and two stops with the tram, all told twenty minutes both ways. So now I could only read on the way home at the suburban train, and didn’t even read there because it felt too short to start reading. The time I saved was spent watching TV. I felt I wasted my time and I really longed for the long commutes on the tram when I did something valuable instead of wasting my time watching rubbish, but it took moving into a different apartment without a TV (again, reduced freedom) to break the bad habit.

    I’ve had the same experience. But it is a pure lack of self-discipline, and cause of your bad habits is not the lack of a train journey. You had no-one to blame your lack of reading on than yourself, and could have changed it at any moment. While the situation for the peasant is rather the opposite.

    It’s also ironic that you use this example. Our peasant ancestors were illiterate, and they had no choice over the matter that they would never enjoy the pleasure of reading.

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    • Replies: @Hippopotamusdrome
    Just saying it's common knowledge. There was a big kerfluffle a while back about nasty American nativists not wanting immigrants from Eastern and Southern Europe.

    Anti-racists are still butthurt to this day over the Immigration Act of 1924:


    Who Was Shut Out?: Immigration Quotas, 1925–1927
    ...a blatant effort to limit immigration from Southern and Eastern Europe

     



    Foundations of Holocaust: 1924, Congress decides No More Jews

     

    The leftists of SNL in the skit are showing who they think the enemy is, which is Northwest Europeans, and not just simply Europeans or Whites.
    , @reiner Tor
    It might be ironic, but then it’s not a bad example, because you also had the same experience. Imagine if you never read books, only saw TV in your whole life. Could you imagine you’d be happier if you didn’t have access to TV, and instead were forced to read books?

    Now we might be the same regarding the peasant life. Maybe we cannot imagine how good it is, but only because we don’t know it. And maybe even if we knew it and could choose it, we’d still choose modern life, despite knowing fully well that it’s worse - the same as with the reading vs. watching TV thing.

    (You wrote that it’s just a lack of self-discipline, but so what? Probably you often need some self-discipline to choose what’s better over what’s worse. For example I always feel myself better when I’m regularly working out than when I don’t, but it took me some time to pick up the habit. It’ irrelevant for my point.)
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  103. @Dmitry

    A few months later I changed to a different job which was much closer and I only had to use the suburban rail and two stops with the tram, all told twenty minutes both ways. So now I could only read on the way home at the suburban train, and didn’t even read there because it felt too short to start reading. The time I saved was spent watching TV. I felt I wasted my time and I really longed for the long commutes on the tram when I did something valuable instead of wasting my time watching rubbish, but it took moving into a different apartment without a TV (again, reduced freedom) to break the bad habit.
     
    I've had the same experience. But it is a pure lack of self-discipline, and cause of your bad habits is not the lack of a train journey. You had no-one to blame your lack of reading on than yourself, and could have changed it at any moment. While the situation for the peasant is rather the opposite.

    It's also ironic that you use this example. Our peasant ancestors were illiterate, and they had no choice over the matter that they would never enjoy the pleasure of reading.

    Just saying it’s common knowledge. There was a big kerfluffle a while back about nasty American nativists not wanting immigrants from Eastern and Southern Europe.

    Anti-racists are still butthurt to this day over the Immigration Act of 1924:

    Who Was Shut Out?: Immigration Quotas, 1925–1927
    …a blatant effort to limit immigration from Southern and Eastern Europe

    Foundations of Holocaust: 1924, Congress decides No More Jews

    The leftists of SNL in the skit are showing who they think the enemy is, which is Northwest Europeans, and not just simply Europeans or Whites.

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  104. @RadicalCenter
    Islam is not ascetic. At all.

    Islam is not ascetic. At all.

    But within Islam, there also developed a mystical and ascetic tradition – Sufism.

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  105. @RadicalCenter
    I have affection and respect for polish people, and would gladly welcome millions more of them to my country, the USA. Especially in place of the immigrants that we are actually getting! And I’m learning about Poland from your detailed comments.

    But I don’t understand the optimism.

    You’re saying that Poland won’t stop the nascent nonwhite immigration, and the TFR will likely stay well under replacement. 1.7 to 1.8, for the next decade or so. That means, simply, that the native Poles will become a smaller, slightly older group over that period, while Indians (God Help you) and other nonwhite immigrants will increase, albeit from a very small base.

    After those ten years, there still will be new net nonwhites coming every year, and there won’t be enough polish women of childbearing age, realistically, to turn the demographic decline around more, and the nonwhite population will start to be more noticeable.

    If Poland stays in the EU, they will cease to exist as Poland in the lifetime of current Polish kids. It seems dubious that more returnees will be sufficient to make up for such a low TFR and offset new immigrants with presumably a higher TFR. Even immigrants who have two kid each will become gradually a larger share of the population, and someday a majority.

    I do have an acquaintance, a white American (German and Polish parents), who has settled in Krakow permanently, learned Polish, married a nice Polish girl, and had a baby. I think he is pursuing citizenship. Now let’s hope they have three more children! Like us, you need it desperately.

    Thanks. And I had the similar thoughts. PPs post sounded a little too positive for me.
    Im worried about the demographics too. And still most Poles are more pro EU than average.
    (that would change to one of the least if Muslims were forced in large numbers into Poland).

    Although I dont think Europeans should move to the US. Europe needs to keep Europeans.

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  106. @RadicalCenter
    Evolutionarily, the genes of those who do not reproduce, die out, whether or not they brainwash our kids.

    And by the way, “they” won’t have our children.

    And by the way, “they” won’t have our children.

    They’ve already got them.

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  107. @RadicalCenter
    I have affection and respect for polish people, and would gladly welcome millions more of them to my country, the USA. Especially in place of the immigrants that we are actually getting! And I’m learning about Poland from your detailed comments.

    But I don’t understand the optimism.

    You’re saying that Poland won’t stop the nascent nonwhite immigration, and the TFR will likely stay well under replacement. 1.7 to 1.8, for the next decade or so. That means, simply, that the native Poles will become a smaller, slightly older group over that period, while Indians (God Help you) and other nonwhite immigrants will increase, albeit from a very small base.

    After those ten years, there still will be new net nonwhites coming every year, and there won’t be enough polish women of childbearing age, realistically, to turn the demographic decline around more, and the nonwhite population will start to be more noticeable.

    If Poland stays in the EU, they will cease to exist as Poland in the lifetime of current Polish kids. It seems dubious that more returnees will be sufficient to make up for such a low TFR and offset new immigrants with presumably a higher TFR. Even immigrants who have two kid each will become gradually a larger share of the population, and someday a majority.

    I do have an acquaintance, a white American (German and Polish parents), who has settled in Krakow permanently, learned Polish, married a nice Polish girl, and had a baby. I think he is pursuing citizenship. Now let’s hope they have three more children! Like us, you need it desperately.

    Thank you for your kind words, first of all. Given the effort you put into to write that, the least I can do is to return the favour and address some of the key concerns your raised.

    You’re saying that Poland won’t stop the nascent nonwhite immigration, and the TFR will likely stay well under replacement. 1.7 to 1.8, for the next decade or so. That means, simply, that the native Poles will become a smaller, slightly older group over that period, while Indians (God Help you) and other nonwhite immigrants will increase, albeit from a very small base.

    Yes, but it is important to understand that rising Polish fertility will counteract some of these demographics changes. Secondly, a significant chunk of the people we are getting now are temporary workers. Of course experience in Germany shows us that “temporary” workers could very well end up permanent, but generally when you have an overwhelmingly male worker population, their reproduction capacity is quite low. Getting Polish citizenship is still quite difficult. It often requires 10 years of continuous residency and strong fluency in Polish. The government has also recently tightened the requirements for those who marry a Polish spouse, too. So even that route is not nearly as simple as it used to be, and far harsher than the norm in most Western countries.

    Most of the jobs being performed by various Indians are those of errand boys and similar jobs, where linguistic fluency is quite low. In short, while the amount of non-whites will increase, the amount of new Polish citizens will be significantly lower. Plus, I expect many of the workers to be replaced by other and new workers, thereby impeding citizenship acquisition.

    After those ten years, there still will be new net nonwhites coming every year

    Correct, but if there is a “churning” of workers, that means that they don’t stay permanently but are replaced. This is yet to be seen if it happens, but so far this is the pattern by and large, at least for non-Europeans. It could change, but it also could stay the same. It’s impossible to say right now. However, even if it changes, we wouldn’t see the effect of that at least 15 years down the line due to slow citizenship acquisition.

    If Poland stays in the EU, they will cease to exist as Poland in the lifetime of current Polish kids.

    Yes, but the lifetime of current Polish kids is close to 80 years of life expectancy. We’re talking the year 2100. I think we will see much more drastic technological change in the 2030-2040 period which would dramatically reduce the need for human workers. In fact, this process is already ongoing. So I focus more on the next twenty years which is a more realistic timeframe.

    It seems dubious that more returnees will be sufficient to make up for such a low TFR and offset new immigrants with presumably a higher TFR.

    As AK has pointed out, it is a myth that a country with sub-2.1 TFR keeps losing population endlessly. You reach a “steady state” population at some point. Poland currently has around 400,000 births per year. It could increase that to 500,000 realistically, but let’s say it stays at 400,000. It’s life expectancy is around 78.5 years old but still rising. Especially for men there is a large upside for improvement. That would imply a steady-state population of around 35 million people from today’s 38.5 million. Hardly a catastrophic drop. If fertility improves further, the steady state-population would be even higher.

    I do have an acquaintance, a white American (German and Polish parents), who has settled in Krakow permanently, learned Polish, married a nice Polish girl, and had a baby. I think he is pursuing citizenship. Now let’s hope they have three more children! Like us, you need it desperately.

    That’s good to hear. I’m very pro-kids but as I pointed out, I think cloning will be a viable solution in 10-15 years hence. We won’t need perfect clones with a life expectancy of 80+ years. It’s enough for them to be “good enough” and do simple tasks like construction work, cleaning work and so on. We’re seeing radical improvements in cloning in the last few years, just as we’ve seen radical improvements in AI and quantum computing. What was once unthinkable has become plausible.

    However even if cloning doesn’t take off, I still think that we will see a significant decoupling of labour intensity and GDP growth due to advancements in AI, automation and robotics. We will also likely see human life extension. Plus, with radical decreases in gene therapy already occurring as I write this, selecting healthier and better genes in our kids will be viable. It should also help fertility as insemination will be better and more precisely targeted than IVF, which is an old technology at this stage.

    There’s always a danger of being too much of a cornucopian, but I still believe that the progress we are seeing now in these various fields are not a fluke, nor is it an empty hypetrain. It is genuine progress and the people who have been in these fields for decades, whether it is AI, cloning, quantum computing, gene therapy etc will tell you as much, and many of them are often converted skeptics who didn’t even believe that some of the progress we’re seeing now would either A) happen at all or B) happen nearly as quickly. But it is.

    Read More
    • Replies: @German_reader

    We won’t need perfect clones with a life expectancy of 80+ years. It’s enough for them to be “good enough” and do simple tasks like construction work, cleaning work and so on. We’re seeing radical improvements in cloning in the last few years, just as we’ve seen radical improvements in AI and quantum computing.
     
    That sounds ethically dubious...aren't you in effect proposing the creation of a short-lived slave caste whose sole purpose would be working for "real" humans?
    I would be against that, and I'm irreligious and far right according to current Western standards. I don't see how something like this could ever become acceptable in Poland unless the country changes completely and severs all connection to the Catholic church and Christian morality (which is neither likely nor - in this regard at least - desirable imo).
    , @Dante
    What fantastic comments you write, Brilliant observations. Cheers
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  108. @AP

    It’s more just that people romanticize their youth.
     
    Sure, there is certainly an element to that. But if it were really so horrible, it wouldn't be possible to idolize it. I doubt that people undergoing collectivization, or famine, idolize their youth under such circumstances. Normal, hardworking, peasant life - they do.

    Also, in modern surveys, societies that are most like those of old rural Europe (Paraguay) where people had to work hard, were poor, but were also religious and did not face epidemics or starvation (as in Africa) are the happiest - so I think this also suggests that there is more to such observations than simply a rosy portrait of youth.

    But I can say only in my own viewpoint, that life in the cities is pretty good nowadays, if you can make some free time for yourself. And I’ll certainly take it over being stuck all my life in a village.
     
    I prefer an old house in a small town, an hour or so from the city. I'm no longer 20.

    As we have seen, poor (but not starvation-poor) Catholic rural countries are the happiest places on Earth. In terms of low suicide rate, they share the lowest rate with Caribbean and Muslim nations:

    https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_sovereign_states_by_suicide_rate

    Thanks for that but it should also be remembered for what it may be worth that the degree of stigma attaching to suicide may be much less in some places than in others (e.g. East Asia).

    Read More
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  109. @Dmitry

    A few months later I changed to a different job which was much closer and I only had to use the suburban rail and two stops with the tram, all told twenty minutes both ways. So now I could only read on the way home at the suburban train, and didn’t even read there because it felt too short to start reading. The time I saved was spent watching TV. I felt I wasted my time and I really longed for the long commutes on the tram when I did something valuable instead of wasting my time watching rubbish, but it took moving into a different apartment without a TV (again, reduced freedom) to break the bad habit.
     
    I've had the same experience. But it is a pure lack of self-discipline, and cause of your bad habits is not the lack of a train journey. You had no-one to blame your lack of reading on than yourself, and could have changed it at any moment. While the situation for the peasant is rather the opposite.

    It's also ironic that you use this example. Our peasant ancestors were illiterate, and they had no choice over the matter that they would never enjoy the pleasure of reading.

    It might be ironic, but then it’s not a bad example, because you also had the same experience. Imagine if you never read books, only saw TV in your whole life. Could you imagine you’d be happier if you didn’t have access to TV, and instead were forced to read books?

    Now we might be the same regarding the peasant life. Maybe we cannot imagine how good it is, but only because we don’t know it. And maybe even if we knew it and could choose it, we’d still choose modern life, despite knowing fully well that it’s worse – the same as with the reading vs. watching TV thing.

    (You wrote that it’s just a lack of self-discipline, but so what? Probably you often need some self-discipline to choose what’s better over what’s worse. For example I always feel myself better when I’m regularly working out than when I don’t, but it took me some time to pick up the habit. It’ irrelevant for my point.)

    Read More
    • Replies: @Dmitry

    It might be ironic, but then it’s not a bad example, because you also had the same experience. Imagine if you never read books, only saw TV in your whole life. Could you imagine you’d be happier if you didn’t have access to TV, and instead were forced to read books?

    Now we might be the same regarding the peasant life. Maybe we cannot imagine how good it is, but only because we don’t know it. And maybe even if we knew it and could choose it, we’d still choose modern life, despite knowing fully well that it’s worse – the same as with the reading vs. watching TV thing.

    (You wrote that it’s just a lack of self-discipline, but so what? Probably you often need some self-discipline to choose what’s better over what’s worse. For example I always feel myself better when I’m regularly working out than when I don’t, but it took me some time to pick up the habit. It’ irrelevant for my point.)
     

    The key difference is lack of liberty or freedom.

    Let's imagine a peasant life is involuntarily a happier one (which I very much doubt, but I'll put that aside). Well today, I have the opportunity to do peasant things if I wish. I can go to dacha, dig up vegetables and try not to read anything, or count past 10. I can fishing if I wanted. I could even give up my job to do this permanently and probably still survive, with luxury that if I catch tetanus, someone will probably call an ambulance. (Perhaps I couldn't propose to my cousin though - I doubt she will agree.)

    Whereas our peasant ancestors, have no such choice or opportunity to do the things that give a sense of happiness in modern life - like reading a book, learning a foreign language, doing algebra (this is a reliable way to forget your problems), making friends from other cultures, visit a great museum, etc - add to list as you wish.

    Your point about self-discipline is valid. Reality of our lives, even with all these opportunities - is that most of the time we don't make use of them.

    But the key distinction is freedom. You can disconnect the internet right now and start reading Tolstoy. Even at work, most of us can probably smuggle in a book. If you don't make use of the opportunities, this is your fault and responsibility.

    Our peasant ancestors do not have the opportunity and responsibility. Virtues like self-discipline were irrelevant here, or at best only operating within a much more limited sphere.

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  110. @Polish Perspective
    Thank you for your kind words, first of all. Given the effort you put into to write that, the least I can do is to return the favour and address some of the key concerns your raised.

    You’re saying that Poland won’t stop the nascent nonwhite immigration, and the TFR will likely stay well under replacement. 1.7 to 1.8, for the next decade or so. That means, simply, that the native Poles will become a smaller, slightly older group over that period, while Indians (God Help you) and other nonwhite immigrants will increase, albeit from a very small base.

     

    Yes, but it is important to understand that rising Polish fertility will counteract some of these demographics changes. Secondly, a significant chunk of the people we are getting now are temporary workers. Of course experience in Germany shows us that "temporary" workers could very well end up permanent, but generally when you have an overwhelmingly male worker population, their reproduction capacity is quite low. Getting Polish citizenship is still quite difficult. It often requires 10 years of continuous residency and strong fluency in Polish. The government has also recently tightened the requirements for those who marry a Polish spouse, too. So even that route is not nearly as simple as it used to be, and far harsher than the norm in most Western countries.

    Most of the jobs being performed by various Indians are those of errand boys and similar jobs, where linguistic fluency is quite low. In short, while the amount of non-whites will increase, the amount of new Polish citizens will be significantly lower. Plus, I expect many of the workers to be replaced by other and new workers, thereby impeding citizenship acquisition.


    After those ten years, there still will be new net nonwhites coming every year
     
    Correct, but if there is a "churning" of workers, that means that they don't stay permanently but are replaced. This is yet to be seen if it happens, but so far this is the pattern by and large, at least for non-Europeans. It could change, but it also could stay the same. It's impossible to say right now. However, even if it changes, we wouldn't see the effect of that at least 15 years down the line due to slow citizenship acquisition.

    If Poland stays in the EU, they will cease to exist as Poland in the lifetime of current Polish kids.
     
    Yes, but the lifetime of current Polish kids is close to 80 years of life expectancy. We're talking the year 2100. I think we will see much more drastic technological change in the 2030-2040 period which would dramatically reduce the need for human workers. In fact, this process is already ongoing. So I focus more on the next twenty years which is a more realistic timeframe.

    It seems dubious that more returnees will be sufficient to make up for such a low TFR and offset new immigrants with presumably a higher TFR.
     
    As AK has pointed out, it is a myth that a country with sub-2.1 TFR keeps losing population endlessly. You reach a "steady state" population at some point. Poland currently has around 400,000 births per year. It could increase that to 500,000 realistically, but let's say it stays at 400,000. It's life expectancy is around 78.5 years old but still rising. Especially for men there is a large upside for improvement. That would imply a steady-state population of around 35 million people from today's 38.5 million. Hardly a catastrophic drop. If fertility improves further, the steady state-population would be even higher.

    I do have an acquaintance, a white American (German and Polish parents), who has settled in Krakow permanently, learned Polish, married a nice Polish girl, and had a baby. I think he is pursuing citizenship. Now let’s hope they have three more children! Like us, you need it desperately.
     
    That's good to hear. I'm very pro-kids but as I pointed out, I think cloning will be a viable solution in 10-15 years hence. We won't need perfect clones with a life expectancy of 80+ years. It's enough for them to be "good enough" and do simple tasks like construction work, cleaning work and so on. We're seeing radical improvements in cloning in the last few years, just as we've seen radical improvements in AI and quantum computing. What was once unthinkable has become plausible.

    However even if cloning doesn't take off, I still think that we will see a significant decoupling of labour intensity and GDP growth due to advancements in AI, automation and robotics. We will also likely see human life extension. Plus, with radical decreases in gene therapy already occurring as I write this, selecting healthier and better genes in our kids will be viable. It should also help fertility as insemination will be better and more precisely targeted than IVF, which is an old technology at this stage.

    There's always a danger of being too much of a cornucopian, but I still believe that the progress we are seeing now in these various fields are not a fluke, nor is it an empty hypetrain. It is genuine progress and the people who have been in these fields for decades, whether it is AI, cloning, quantum computing, gene therapy etc will tell you as much, and many of them are often converted skeptics who didn't even believe that some of the progress we're seeing now would either A) happen at all or B) happen nearly as quickly. But it is.

    We won’t need perfect clones with a life expectancy of 80+ years. It’s enough for them to be “good enough” and do simple tasks like construction work, cleaning work and so on. We’re seeing radical improvements in cloning in the last few years, just as we’ve seen radical improvements in AI and quantum computing.

    That sounds ethically dubious…aren’t you in effect proposing the creation of a short-lived slave caste whose sole purpose would be working for “real” humans?
    I would be against that, and I’m irreligious and far right according to current Western standards. I don’t see how something like this could ever become acceptable in Poland unless the country changes completely and severs all connection to the Catholic church and Christian morality (which is neither likely nor – in this regard at least – desirable imo).

    Read More
    • Replies: @AP
    Agreed.

    Replacement by robots is far more likely than would be replacement by a caste of slave-like clones, at least in Europe with its Christian traditions and respect for human life.

    China OTOH...
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  111. @reiner Tor
    It might be ironic, but then it’s not a bad example, because you also had the same experience. Imagine if you never read books, only saw TV in your whole life. Could you imagine you’d be happier if you didn’t have access to TV, and instead were forced to read books?

    Now we might be the same regarding the peasant life. Maybe we cannot imagine how good it is, but only because we don’t know it. And maybe even if we knew it and could choose it, we’d still choose modern life, despite knowing fully well that it’s worse - the same as with the reading vs. watching TV thing.

    (You wrote that it’s just a lack of self-discipline, but so what? Probably you often need some self-discipline to choose what’s better over what’s worse. For example I always feel myself better when I’m regularly working out than when I don’t, but it took me some time to pick up the habit. It’ irrelevant for my point.)

    It might be ironic, but then it’s not a bad example, because you also had the same experience. Imagine if you never read books, only saw TV in your whole life. Could you imagine you’d be happier if you didn’t have access to TV, and instead were forced to read books?

    Now we might be the same regarding the peasant life. Maybe we cannot imagine how good it is, but only because we don’t know it. And maybe even if we knew it and could choose it, we’d still choose modern life, despite knowing fully well that it’s worse – the same as with the reading vs. watching TV thing.

    (You wrote that it’s just a lack of self-discipline, but so what? Probably you often need some self-discipline to choose what’s better over what’s worse. For example I always feel myself better when I’m regularly working out than when I don’t, but it took me some time to pick up the habit. It’ irrelevant for my point.)

    The key difference is lack of liberty or freedom.

    Let’s imagine a peasant life is involuntarily a happier one (which I very much doubt, but I’ll put that aside). Well today, I have the opportunity to do peasant things if I wish. I can go to dacha, dig up vegetables and try not to read anything, or count past 10. I can fishing if I wanted. I could even give up my job to do this permanently and probably still survive, with luxury that if I catch tetanus, someone will probably call an ambulance. (Perhaps I couldn’t propose to my cousin though – I doubt she will agree.)

    Whereas our peasant ancestors, have no such choice or opportunity to do the things that give a sense of happiness in modern life – like reading a book, learning a foreign language, doing algebra (this is a reliable way to forget your problems), making friends from other cultures, visit a great museum, etc – add to list as you wish.

    Your point about self-discipline is valid. Reality of our lives, even with all these opportunities – is that most of the time we don’t make use of them.

    But the key distinction is freedom. You can disconnect the internet right now and start reading Tolstoy. Even at work, most of us can probably smuggle in a book. If you don’t make use of the opportunities, this is your fault and responsibility.

    Our peasant ancestors do not have the opportunity and responsibility. Virtues like self-discipline were irrelevant here, or at best only operating within a much more limited sphere.

    Read More
    • Replies: @reiner Tor
    But it’s perfectly possible that the freedom to pursue happiness will ultimately lead to bad decisions for all or most humans and so paradoxically less happiness. It’s questionable if we are well suited for the kind of freedom we now enjoy (or perhaps suffer). We are certainly not evolutionary well adapted to it, and being biological beings, that might cause a lot of misery for us.
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  112. @German_reader

    We won’t need perfect clones with a life expectancy of 80+ years. It’s enough for them to be “good enough” and do simple tasks like construction work, cleaning work and so on. We’re seeing radical improvements in cloning in the last few years, just as we’ve seen radical improvements in AI and quantum computing.
     
    That sounds ethically dubious...aren't you in effect proposing the creation of a short-lived slave caste whose sole purpose would be working for "real" humans?
    I would be against that, and I'm irreligious and far right according to current Western standards. I don't see how something like this could ever become acceptable in Poland unless the country changes completely and severs all connection to the Catholic church and Christian morality (which is neither likely nor - in this regard at least - desirable imo).

    Agreed.

    Replacement by robots is far more likely than would be replacement by a caste of slave-like clones, at least in Europe with its Christian traditions and respect for human life.

    China OTOH…

    Read More
    • Replies: @German_reader
    Yes, robotics is a much better and more realistic alternative imo. Human clones would presumably still be persons with consciousness, I just don't see how their "production" as a workers caste without rights could become acceptable, given how even mistreatment of animals in factory farming and the like is repellent to many Westerners.
    I certainly hope cloning for such purposes never becomes a reality, either in the West or in China.
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  113. @AP
    Agreed.

    Replacement by robots is far more likely than would be replacement by a caste of slave-like clones, at least in Europe with its Christian traditions and respect for human life.

    China OTOH...

    Yes, robotics is a much better and more realistic alternative imo. Human clones would presumably still be persons with consciousness, I just don’t see how their “production” as a workers caste without rights could become acceptable, given how even mistreatment of animals in factory farming and the like is repellent to many Westerners.
    I certainly hope cloning for such purposes never becomes a reality, either in the West or in China.

    Read More
    • Agree: AP, polskijoe, reiner Tor
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  114. @Dmitry

    It might be ironic, but then it’s not a bad example, because you also had the same experience. Imagine if you never read books, only saw TV in your whole life. Could you imagine you’d be happier if you didn’t have access to TV, and instead were forced to read books?

    Now we might be the same regarding the peasant life. Maybe we cannot imagine how good it is, but only because we don’t know it. And maybe even if we knew it and could choose it, we’d still choose modern life, despite knowing fully well that it’s worse – the same as with the reading vs. watching TV thing.

    (You wrote that it’s just a lack of self-discipline, but so what? Probably you often need some self-discipline to choose what’s better over what’s worse. For example I always feel myself better when I’m regularly working out than when I don’t, but it took me some time to pick up the habit. It’ irrelevant for my point.)
     

    The key difference is lack of liberty or freedom.

    Let's imagine a peasant life is involuntarily a happier one (which I very much doubt, but I'll put that aside). Well today, I have the opportunity to do peasant things if I wish. I can go to dacha, dig up vegetables and try not to read anything, or count past 10. I can fishing if I wanted. I could even give up my job to do this permanently and probably still survive, with luxury that if I catch tetanus, someone will probably call an ambulance. (Perhaps I couldn't propose to my cousin though - I doubt she will agree.)

    Whereas our peasant ancestors, have no such choice or opportunity to do the things that give a sense of happiness in modern life - like reading a book, learning a foreign language, doing algebra (this is a reliable way to forget your problems), making friends from other cultures, visit a great museum, etc - add to list as you wish.

    Your point about self-discipline is valid. Reality of our lives, even with all these opportunities - is that most of the time we don't make use of them.

    But the key distinction is freedom. You can disconnect the internet right now and start reading Tolstoy. Even at work, most of us can probably smuggle in a book. If you don't make use of the opportunities, this is your fault and responsibility.

    Our peasant ancestors do not have the opportunity and responsibility. Virtues like self-discipline were irrelevant here, or at best only operating within a much more limited sphere.

    But it’s perfectly possible that the freedom to pursue happiness will ultimately lead to bad decisions for all or most humans and so paradoxically less happiness. It’s questionable if we are well suited for the kind of freedom we now enjoy (or perhaps suffer). We are certainly not evolutionary well adapted to it, and being biological beings, that might cause a lot of misery for us.

    Read More
    • Replies: @dfordoom

    But it’s perfectly possible that the freedom to pursue happiness will ultimately lead to bad decisions for all or most humans and so paradoxically less happiness. It’s questionable if we are well suited for the kind of freedom we now enjoy (or perhaps suffer).
     
    Agreed. And I'm not even sure most people really want freedom. Politicians and media types and assorted ideologues like to tell us we want freedom. I'm not even sure most people even know what the hell freedom means.

    Maybe freedom really is just another word for nothing left to lose.
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  115. @reiner Tor
    But it’s perfectly possible that the freedom to pursue happiness will ultimately lead to bad decisions for all or most humans and so paradoxically less happiness. It’s questionable if we are well suited for the kind of freedom we now enjoy (or perhaps suffer). We are certainly not evolutionary well adapted to it, and being biological beings, that might cause a lot of misery for us.

    But it’s perfectly possible that the freedom to pursue happiness will ultimately lead to bad decisions for all or most humans and so paradoxically less happiness. It’s questionable if we are well suited for the kind of freedom we now enjoy (or perhaps suffer).

    Agreed. And I’m not even sure most people really want freedom. Politicians and media types and assorted ideologues like to tell us we want freedom. I’m not even sure most people even know what the hell freedom means.

    Maybe freedom really is just another word for nothing left to lose.

    Read More
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  116. @Polish Perspective
    Thank you for your kind words, first of all. Given the effort you put into to write that, the least I can do is to return the favour and address some of the key concerns your raised.

    You’re saying that Poland won’t stop the nascent nonwhite immigration, and the TFR will likely stay well under replacement. 1.7 to 1.8, for the next decade or so. That means, simply, that the native Poles will become a smaller, slightly older group over that period, while Indians (God Help you) and other nonwhite immigrants will increase, albeit from a very small base.

     

    Yes, but it is important to understand that rising Polish fertility will counteract some of these demographics changes. Secondly, a significant chunk of the people we are getting now are temporary workers. Of course experience in Germany shows us that "temporary" workers could very well end up permanent, but generally when you have an overwhelmingly male worker population, their reproduction capacity is quite low. Getting Polish citizenship is still quite difficult. It often requires 10 years of continuous residency and strong fluency in Polish. The government has also recently tightened the requirements for those who marry a Polish spouse, too. So even that route is not nearly as simple as it used to be, and far harsher than the norm in most Western countries.

    Most of the jobs being performed by various Indians are those of errand boys and similar jobs, where linguistic fluency is quite low. In short, while the amount of non-whites will increase, the amount of new Polish citizens will be significantly lower. Plus, I expect many of the workers to be replaced by other and new workers, thereby impeding citizenship acquisition.


    After those ten years, there still will be new net nonwhites coming every year
     
    Correct, but if there is a "churning" of workers, that means that they don't stay permanently but are replaced. This is yet to be seen if it happens, but so far this is the pattern by and large, at least for non-Europeans. It could change, but it also could stay the same. It's impossible to say right now. However, even if it changes, we wouldn't see the effect of that at least 15 years down the line due to slow citizenship acquisition.

    If Poland stays in the EU, they will cease to exist as Poland in the lifetime of current Polish kids.
     
    Yes, but the lifetime of current Polish kids is close to 80 years of life expectancy. We're talking the year 2100. I think we will see much more drastic technological change in the 2030-2040 period which would dramatically reduce the need for human workers. In fact, this process is already ongoing. So I focus more on the next twenty years which is a more realistic timeframe.

    It seems dubious that more returnees will be sufficient to make up for such a low TFR and offset new immigrants with presumably a higher TFR.
     
    As AK has pointed out, it is a myth that a country with sub-2.1 TFR keeps losing population endlessly. You reach a "steady state" population at some point. Poland currently has around 400,000 births per year. It could increase that to 500,000 realistically, but let's say it stays at 400,000. It's life expectancy is around 78.5 years old but still rising. Especially for men there is a large upside for improvement. That would imply a steady-state population of around 35 million people from today's 38.5 million. Hardly a catastrophic drop. If fertility improves further, the steady state-population would be even higher.

    I do have an acquaintance, a white American (German and Polish parents), who has settled in Krakow permanently, learned Polish, married a nice Polish girl, and had a baby. I think he is pursuing citizenship. Now let’s hope they have three more children! Like us, you need it desperately.
     
    That's good to hear. I'm very pro-kids but as I pointed out, I think cloning will be a viable solution in 10-15 years hence. We won't need perfect clones with a life expectancy of 80+ years. It's enough for them to be "good enough" and do simple tasks like construction work, cleaning work and so on. We're seeing radical improvements in cloning in the last few years, just as we've seen radical improvements in AI and quantum computing. What was once unthinkable has become plausible.

    However even if cloning doesn't take off, I still think that we will see a significant decoupling of labour intensity and GDP growth due to advancements in AI, automation and robotics. We will also likely see human life extension. Plus, with radical decreases in gene therapy already occurring as I write this, selecting healthier and better genes in our kids will be viable. It should also help fertility as insemination will be better and more precisely targeted than IVF, which is an old technology at this stage.

    There's always a danger of being too much of a cornucopian, but I still believe that the progress we are seeing now in these various fields are not a fluke, nor is it an empty hypetrain. It is genuine progress and the people who have been in these fields for decades, whether it is AI, cloning, quantum computing, gene therapy etc will tell you as much, and many of them are often converted skeptics who didn't even believe that some of the progress we're seeing now would either A) happen at all or B) happen nearly as quickly. But it is.

    What fantastic comments you write, Brilliant observations. Cheers

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  117. Just a quick point on Italy, last year was the first year of the implementation of the Baby Bonus plan which doubles the amount of money the state pays for every birth for a longer period of time ( a one off sum & monthly amount ) as well as vastly increasing the number of people able to claim the benefit and the benefit is implicitly aimed at Italians rather than immigrants ( the left preidictably complained immigrants will struggle to access it ) also both the movimento cinque Stelle and the centre right coalition led by Salvini have made boosting the Italian birthrate a key policy. And whilst the native population declined again in 2017 the birthrate only declined by 2% which is means the rate of decline could be slowing and as the new government ( five star movement or Salvini ) continues to make demographic recovery a priority we can be hopeful of improvement. Finally perhaps the most important sign that things could turn around is that 2017 saw the highest number of marriages in Italy since 2008 and of course more marriages usually result in more births. The trend in pro Natalist policies are to be observed all over Eastern Europe too and we know that putting the right amount of resources can certainly turn things around.

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  118. You are correct..It is also worth repeating for all the doom and gloom merchants ( Europeans will be minorities in 2080 or similar etc etc ) that these outcomes are only possible so long as the elites favouring these policies are in power. ..And every indication points to them not being in power years from now indeed the decline in mainstream politics and media has been stunning. The out of touch elites within the eu the us etc are in decline and Nationalist or nationalist inspired parties are emerging to take their places. Europeans are slowly waking up and beginning to take our own side which is an inevitable reaction to the anti white agenda. Everything is possible

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