PEW has just made three different projections of the Islamic percentage of Europe’s population in 2050.
Map of Muslim share of each European country today and in 2015 (High scenario).
Here are the assumptions behind each of them:
- Low: All migration into Europe stops from 2016. Muslims still increase from 4.9% to 7.4% by 2050 due to higher fertility and younger average age.
- Medium: Refugee flows of 2014-2016 stop, but “regular” (non-asylum) immigration continues at current levels. Muslims increase to 11.2% of the population.
- High: Refugee flows of 2014-2016 continue at the same level, with the same composition (i.e. mostly Muslim) in addition to regular immigration. Muslims increase to 14.0% of the European population.
Here is a summary:
1. I think actual policy will be between #2 and #3, i.e. #2.5. (Recall when Merkel said multiculturalism was a failure? What a change half a decade makes).
2. There’s some evidence that Muslims are undercounted in Europe. For instance, French Muslims have remained unchanged at around 8%-10% of the population since the early 2000s.
And there’s real quantitative evidence behind this, as Emil Kirkegaard points out:
There’s a lot to do, but one thing I’ve been thinking of is showing that Muslim populations are actually growing a lot faster than many claim. The reason they claim these low levels of growth is because they rely on official statistics and these data tend to convert 2nd and later generation people into the ‘native’ categories, thus effectively hiding them. However, Muslims are nice enough to use distinctive names, so one can count the number of persons with such names over time and this will show a more realistic growth rate. Preliminary results for Denmark indicate an official stats-based growth rate of 2.5%, whereas first names indicate 5.1%. That’s not a small difference. The growth rate of Danish natives is something like -16% per generation which comes out at about -0.5% per year. You don’t have to be a genius to see how 5.1% vs. -0.5% work out in a few decades.
3. This obviously doesn’t include non-Muslim immigration (see Sailer’s most important graph in the world).
4. Doesn’t take into account conversion. Anecdotally, many African immigrants to the UK are apparently into Islam; conversely, Muslims in Western Europe tend to become more secular and liberal (though paradoxically, Islamic radicalization also increases).
5. Invest in Eastern Poland.