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Commenter Polish Perspective draws attention to a startling new statistic:

Total spending on R&D in China (as a percentage of GDP) more than doubled from 0.9% in 2000 to 2.1% in 2016… China’s share of high-impact academic publications (the top 0.1% of papers in Scopus, which rates by citations) has grown, from less than 1% in 1997 to about 20% in 2016.

In my 2016 longread, I pointed out that China was converging with America on a broad range of hi-tech economy indicators.

Now yes, Chinese papers have a reputation for shoddiness, being worse on average than Western ones, but absolute values do matter, and quality is rapidly improving anyway.

Incidentally, this is confirmed by China’s performance on Nature’s WFC index, where it rose from 24% of the US level in 2013 to 40% in 2016, and 46% as of just the Oct 2016-Sep 2017 period.

Clearly it is well on the road to becoming a global innovation power, in addition to its already extant strengths in basic manufacturing.

Note that this will not be evident in Nobel Prize statistics until the middle of the century, since they now have a 20-30 year lag time (the Japanese, for instance, only started winning substantial numbers of them from around 2000).

The most interesting question is whether China will converge to Japan/Korea’s level of per capita elite scientific output, or go on to hurtle past them to the Anglo/Germanic level.

If the former, it will still end up the world’s premier scientific power, with around 50% higher Science Point production than the US.

If the latter, its scientific dominance will be commensurate to its demographic preponderance, and as complete as its economic (and probable military) dominance.

Incidentally, Russia is a complete failure on these metrics – it is considerably less productive than a high-functioning small country like Switzerland. I have a 4,000 word post on that ready to go in due course.

 
• Category: Science • Tags: China, Science 
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  1. http://fortune.com/2017/12/13/google-china-artificial-intelligence/

    If you want access to the Chinese market you must sell the pass.

    Read More
    ReplyAgree/Disagree/Etc. More... This Commenter Display All Comments
  2. Given its own policies, and those of the US, China is on track to become the world’s innovation leader. By the end of 2018, it will be more apparent just how quickly and easily this latest chapter in the Chinese success story will be written.

    The quote from the original source. It is understandable that for people for whom manufacturing is embodied in iPhones and “supercomputers” it is difficult to grasp that the first thing one with any clue has to do is to begin to look at the bang for a buck. This is not to mention that anytime US “GDP” numbers come up it becomes a cringe-worthy moment. Back to China: despite lofty slogans–here is my “prediction”–by 2025 China will NOT have:

    1. Good (forget excellent) jet engine;
    2. Competitive commercial aircraft, forget good one;
    3. She still will not have real 5th generation fighter plane;
    4. Chinese nuclear submarines will continue to be generation behind US and Russian nuclear subs;
    5. No good car from China;
    6….

    etc.

    They are making strides, no doubt about it, they are also investing more in PR campaigns, but reality on the ground in fields that really matter remains, how to put it mildly, not as black and white. In general, at least for now, anything indigenous Chinese-designed in fields which matter is not impressive, to put it mildly. Much more goes into this than financing, however important.

    I have a 4,000 word post on that ready to go in due course.

    What a coincidence, I have about the same size article in works (hopefully by Monday I will finish it) precisely on Russo-Chinese “Alliance” revisit. A lot more substantive information came up recently, which requires elaboration.

    Read More
    • Replies: @Thorfinnsson
    China's relative level of economic development is around where South Korea was twenty-five years ago, or Japan fifty years ago.

    So your predictions are likely correct.

    On one point in particular however:

    5. No good car from China;
     
    There won't be a good car from China with a conventional powertrain, that's for sure.

    But the story might be different in the matter of electric cars.

    China is the world's largest electric car market (sales comparable to North America and Western Europe combined), and the electric cars sold in China come overwhelmingly from Chinese manufacturers.

    BYD Auto is the world's largest electric car manufacturer, and unlike Tesla it is profitable. Berkshire Hathaway is an early investor.

    Of course, I'm sure much of the value chain extends outside of China. But the same is true of General Motors' electric vehicles (the power electronics in the Chevrolet Volt & Bolt are sourced from LG of South Korea).

    On a different note China appears to be leading in some emerging technologies such as quantum computing and genetic engineering. This should not be ignored.
    , @Daniel Chieh
    I also do not think that 2018 will be the banner year for Chinese innovation. The article is positive even beyond Party projections which I believe are set for 2020 for high product quality, let alone any notion of worldwide firsts.
    , @5371
    They have the world's biggest and fastest growing auto market right there. Why on earth would they compete for scraps in the world's most overcrowded and stagnant markets?
    , @Anonymous
    That literally doesn't mean anything.

    Russia can make world class jet engines, but has Russia ever made a world class smart phone or automobile?

    That must make Russians stupid right?

    Different societies specialize in different fields due to different skill sets and opportunities.
    , @inertial
    I don't understand your contempt for iPhone. It's a cluster of dozens of high technologies in one neat little package. More importantly, millions of people around the world want it.

    Soviet Union made great fighter jet engines, yet they were unable to provide their people with iPhone equivalents of the time. This was one of the major reasons for the collapse of the USSR.
    ReplyAgree/Disagree/Etc. More... This Commenter This Thread Hide Thread Display All Comments
  3. I think its also notable on the specific areas that Chinese science has been focusing on:

    https://www.sciencedaily.com/releases/2017/04/170420093736.htm

    I’ve been of the opinion that neuroscience will be a central plank in being able to accomplish further work – because if there are doubts in the human capital, then engineer for a better human capital with the measures that we know. As the paper notes, China has rapidly paced from 11th to 2nd place in research output. Its also a central plank in scientific spending, along with “applications of genetic technology.”

    Read More
    • Replies: @Andrei Martyanov
    I kinda have a feel for Chinese to make large contributions in medicine. I cannot justify it but I think that, indeed, investment in this field will payoff mightily for China. Call it a hunch.
    ReplyAgree/Disagree/Etc. More... This Commenter This Thread Hide Thread Display All Comments
  4. A lot of “research” is drive by the “Publish or Perish” mantra. People, afraid for their careers, publish four times the amount that they really should. A lot of essays are poorly thought out and the sheer volume of them makes keeping up with the field very difficult. Really good stuff often gets lost in the crowd because no one has the time and energy to read everything.

    Genuinely original work that challenges established ways of thinking requires time and effort appreciate. It is especially vulnerable to simply not being noticed.

    So much that you are forced to read is highly derivative and unoriginal.

    In academia, less is often more.

    Read More
    • Agree: Andrei Martyanov
    • Replies: @Daniel Chieh
    Even their pets get into it sometimes:

    https://retractionwatch.com/2017/08/01/35-years-philosophy-journal-corrects-article-cat/
    ReplyAgree/Disagree/Etc. More... This Commenter This Thread Hide Thread Display All Comments
  5. @Daniel Chieh
    I think its also notable on the specific areas that Chinese science has been focusing on:

    https://www.sciencedaily.com/releases/2017/04/170420093736.htm

    I've been of the opinion that neuroscience will be a central plank in being able to accomplish further work - because if there are doubts in the human capital, then engineer for a better human capital with the measures that we know. As the paper notes, China has rapidly paced from 11th to 2nd place in research output. Its also a central plank in scientific spending, along with "applications of genetic technology."

    I kinda have a feel for Chinese to make large contributions in medicine. I cannot justify it but I think that, indeed, investment in this field will payoff mightily for China. Call it a hunch.

    Read More
    • Replies: @Anonymous
    I'm seriously hoping they can cure baldness. We've been hearing for decades now in the US from scientists about how a baldness cure is imminent and just "5 years away" with no results.
    ReplyAgree/Disagree/Etc. More... This Commenter This Thread Hide Thread Display All Comments
  6. @22pp22
    A lot of "research" is drive by the "Publish or Perish" mantra. People, afraid for their careers, publish four times the amount that they really should. A lot of essays are poorly thought out and the sheer volume of them makes keeping up with the field very difficult. Really good stuff often gets lost in the crowd because no one has the time and energy to read everything.

    Genuinely original work that challenges established ways of thinking requires time and effort appreciate. It is especially vulnerable to simply not being noticed.

    So much that you are forced to read is highly derivative and unoriginal.

    In academia, less is often more.

    Read More
    ReplyAgree/Disagree/Etc. More... This Commenter This Thread Hide Thread Display All Comments
  7. @Andrei Martyanov

    Given its own policies, and those of the US, China is on track to become the world’s innovation leader. By the end of 2018, it will be more apparent just how quickly and easily this latest chapter in the Chinese success story will be written.
     
    The quote from the original source. It is understandable that for people for whom manufacturing is embodied in iPhones and "supercomputers" it is difficult to grasp that the first thing one with any clue has to do is to begin to look at the bang for a buck. This is not to mention that anytime US "GDP" numbers come up it becomes a cringe-worthy moment. Back to China: despite lofty slogans--here is my "prediction"--by 2025 China will NOT have:

    1. Good (forget excellent) jet engine;
    2. Competitive commercial aircraft, forget good one;
    3. She still will not have real 5th generation fighter plane;
    4. Chinese nuclear submarines will continue to be generation behind US and Russian nuclear subs;
    5. No good car from China;
    6....

    etc.

    They are making strides, no doubt about it, they are also investing more in PR campaigns, but reality on the ground in fields that really matter remains, how to put it mildly, not as black and white. In general, at least for now, anything indigenous Chinese-designed in fields which matter is not impressive, to put it mildly. Much more goes into this than financing, however important.


    I have a 4,000 word post on that ready to go in due course.
     
    What a coincidence, I have about the same size article in works (hopefully by Monday I will finish it) precisely on Russo-Chinese "Alliance" revisit. A lot more substantive information came up recently, which requires elaboration.

    China’s relative level of economic development is around where South Korea was twenty-five years ago, or Japan fifty years ago.

    So your predictions are likely correct.

    On one point in particular however:

    5. No good car from China;

    There won’t be a good car from China with a conventional powertrain, that’s for sure.

    But the story might be different in the matter of electric cars.

    China is the world’s largest electric car market (sales comparable to North America and Western Europe combined), and the electric cars sold in China come overwhelmingly from Chinese manufacturers.

    BYD Auto is the world’s largest electric car manufacturer, and unlike Tesla it is profitable. Berkshire Hathaway is an early investor.

    Of course, I’m sure much of the value chain extends outside of China. But the same is true of General Motors’ electric vehicles (the power electronics in the Chevrolet Volt & Bolt are sourced from LG of South Korea).

    On a different note China appears to be leading in some emerging technologies such as quantum computing and genetic engineering. This should not be ignored.

    Read More
    • Replies: @Andrei Martyanov

    On a different note China appears to be leading in some emerging technologies such as quantum computing and genetic engineering. This should not be ignored.
     
    Absolutely, and no one ignores that. But machine-building complex of China is a mixed bag. It certainly can produce bulk but real economy is driven by enclosed technological cycles and it is here where the whole thing becomes tricky.
    , @DB Cooper
    How is the best of BYD measured up to Tesla? Anybody knows?
    , @TT
    China is smart to go straight for EV, bypassing conventional power train it far lagging. EV power performance and simple design motors certainly is much better, with improving battery charging time and mileage breakthrough, will soon reach a level for practical mass usage to replace non EV.

    Volvo certainly has very good design & technology esp in safety and SUV, now acquired by China Geely, don't see why it cannot produce good car, & impressive EV. Audi is also transferring much technology to its biggest long time market in China. China also takeover Malaysia Proton, which owned British Espirit, renowned for its leading sport car design and fine tuning.

    If look is all what people need to be good car, it can be quickly done by engaging some top designers from Europe. Russia has its new plane interior design by France designer entirely, its impressive.
    ReplyAgree/Disagree/Etc. More... This Commenter This Thread Hide Thread Display All Comments
  8. @Thorfinnsson
    China's relative level of economic development is around where South Korea was twenty-five years ago, or Japan fifty years ago.

    So your predictions are likely correct.

    On one point in particular however:

    5. No good car from China;
     
    There won't be a good car from China with a conventional powertrain, that's for sure.

    But the story might be different in the matter of electric cars.

    China is the world's largest electric car market (sales comparable to North America and Western Europe combined), and the electric cars sold in China come overwhelmingly from Chinese manufacturers.

    BYD Auto is the world's largest electric car manufacturer, and unlike Tesla it is profitable. Berkshire Hathaway is an early investor.

    Of course, I'm sure much of the value chain extends outside of China. But the same is true of General Motors' electric vehicles (the power electronics in the Chevrolet Volt & Bolt are sourced from LG of South Korea).

    On a different note China appears to be leading in some emerging technologies such as quantum computing and genetic engineering. This should not be ignored.

    On a different note China appears to be leading in some emerging technologies such as quantum computing and genetic engineering. This should not be ignored.

    Absolutely, and no one ignores that. But machine-building complex of China is a mixed bag. It certainly can produce bulk but real economy is driven by enclosed technological cycles and it is here where the whole thing becomes tricky.

    Read More
    ReplyAgree/Disagree/Etc. More... This Commenter This Thread Hide Thread Display All Comments
  9. @Thorfinnsson
    China's relative level of economic development is around where South Korea was twenty-five years ago, or Japan fifty years ago.

    So your predictions are likely correct.

    On one point in particular however:

    5. No good car from China;
     
    There won't be a good car from China with a conventional powertrain, that's for sure.

    But the story might be different in the matter of electric cars.

    China is the world's largest electric car market (sales comparable to North America and Western Europe combined), and the electric cars sold in China come overwhelmingly from Chinese manufacturers.

    BYD Auto is the world's largest electric car manufacturer, and unlike Tesla it is profitable. Berkshire Hathaway is an early investor.

    Of course, I'm sure much of the value chain extends outside of China. But the same is true of General Motors' electric vehicles (the power electronics in the Chevrolet Volt & Bolt are sourced from LG of South Korea).

    On a different note China appears to be leading in some emerging technologies such as quantum computing and genetic engineering. This should not be ignored.

    How is the best of BYD measured up to Tesla? Anybody knows?

    Read More
    • Replies: @Thorfinnsson
    The vehicles are worse--intentionally so. BYD began as a lithium ion iron phosphate battery manufacturer which moved into vehicles. Its vehicles are buses and mass market models.

    Tesla began as an electric sports car marque which then moved into luxury sedans. The Model 3 is its first mass market product (in theory anyway...as Tesla's manufacturing output is still puny).

    EVs are inherently simpler than internal combustion engine powered automobiles, so China should do well here. No need to match over a century of accumulated mechanical engineering expertise in Detroit, Bavaria, etc. Just need batteries, power conversion electronics, and electric motors.

    Adequate sheet metal can be fabricated in most developing countries, and other automotive components can be procured from global auto parts OEMs like Bosch, Delphi, Magna, Renesas, etc. Martyanov would rightly point out that China has a long way to go to match these top tier global suppliers.

    Chinese metallurgy has a poor reputation, so perhaps high strength steel and aluminum alloys for globally competitive Chinese EVs will need to be sourced from Japan, America, South Korea, Russia, and Europe.

    BYD is also now manufacturing monorail systems. Their monorail system supposedly requires much lower capex than a traditional system, though I don't know the reason why.
    ReplyAgree/Disagree/Etc. More... This Commenter This Thread Hide Thread Display All Comments
  10. @Andrei Martyanov

    Given its own policies, and those of the US, China is on track to become the world’s innovation leader. By the end of 2018, it will be more apparent just how quickly and easily this latest chapter in the Chinese success story will be written.
     
    The quote from the original source. It is understandable that for people for whom manufacturing is embodied in iPhones and "supercomputers" it is difficult to grasp that the first thing one with any clue has to do is to begin to look at the bang for a buck. This is not to mention that anytime US "GDP" numbers come up it becomes a cringe-worthy moment. Back to China: despite lofty slogans--here is my "prediction"--by 2025 China will NOT have:

    1. Good (forget excellent) jet engine;
    2. Competitive commercial aircraft, forget good one;
    3. She still will not have real 5th generation fighter plane;
    4. Chinese nuclear submarines will continue to be generation behind US and Russian nuclear subs;
    5. No good car from China;
    6....

    etc.

    They are making strides, no doubt about it, they are also investing more in PR campaigns, but reality on the ground in fields that really matter remains, how to put it mildly, not as black and white. In general, at least for now, anything indigenous Chinese-designed in fields which matter is not impressive, to put it mildly. Much more goes into this than financing, however important.


    I have a 4,000 word post on that ready to go in due course.
     
    What a coincidence, I have about the same size article in works (hopefully by Monday I will finish it) precisely on Russo-Chinese "Alliance" revisit. A lot more substantive information came up recently, which requires elaboration.

    I also do not think that 2018 will be the banner year for Chinese innovation. The article is positive even beyond Party projections which I believe are set for 2020 for high product quality, let alone any notion of worldwide firsts.

    Read More
    ReplyAgree/Disagree/Etc. More... This Commenter This Thread Hide Thread Display All Comments
  11. Lets hypothetically say that China ruled the world, as a white nationalist would it be worse than the international jew types like Soros, Zuckerberg, Kushner, Bernard Levy, etc, that are currently ruling it?

    Having said that, even with a completely browned America, I don’t think that China will rule the world (just to make it clear I am not saying the browned America will still be able to rule it), I just cannot envisage how the Chinese will dictate a culture to the rest of the world like the US does, there is nothing that I can see that they want to do this.

    Read More
    • Replies: @Anonymous
    Anything resembling a multipolar world would be good for the world including whites in America.

    I don't think China is going for world power, but I could see many countries carve up a lot of the power vacuum that Anglo-Zionists currently take up which is a good thing.

    China, Russia, Iran, Japan, Brazil, etc etc.
    , @songbird
    I'm not sure that they actually can with the CCP still in power, at least independent of the West's rot. However, supposing a rise to the top, I don't think that would be a bad thing for whites at all.

    Along with Japan and SK, it'd be another example to throw in the face of the egalitarians, and a pretty good excuse (mantle being passed) to stop trying to uplift other groups. People unite against an outside threat more easily too. The West was much healthier before the USSR fell apart.

    I could actually imagine Chinese entertainment supplanting Hollywood. Not so much on the merits of their attempts to reach a Western audience so far, but more strictly on the possibility of creating a differentiated product, as they have the resources, and are not chained by the same political considerations. For instance, they could easily make the exact same blockbuster by importing white actors and using the same sets, special effects, and camera crews. Or they could make family films without gay characters or subversive songs like "Let It Go" being shoehorned in.
    ReplyAgree/Disagree/Etc. More... This Commenter This Thread Hide Thread Display All Comments
  12. @Andrei Martyanov
    I kinda have a feel for Chinese to make large contributions in medicine. I cannot justify it but I think that, indeed, investment in this field will payoff mightily for China. Call it a hunch.

    I’m seriously hoping they can cure baldness. We’ve been hearing for decades now in the US from scientists about how a baldness cure is imminent and just “5 years away” with no results.

    Read More
    • LOL: Andrei Martyanov
    • Replies: @Mr. Hack
    Forget about it. Consider looking more like a 'bouncer, 'ex marine', and even a 'bad ass':

    https://youtu.be/AD-E2B5GfI8
    ReplyAgree/Disagree/Etc. More... This Commenter This Thread Hide Thread Display All Comments
  13. @DB Cooper
    How is the best of BYD measured up to Tesla? Anybody knows?

    The vehicles are worse–intentionally so. BYD began as a lithium ion iron phosphate battery manufacturer which moved into vehicles. Its vehicles are buses and mass market models.

    Tesla began as an electric sports car marque which then moved into luxury sedans. The Model 3 is its first mass market product (in theory anyway…as Tesla’s manufacturing output is still puny).

    EVs are inherently simpler than internal combustion engine powered automobiles, so China should do well here. No need to match over a century of accumulated mechanical engineering expertise in Detroit, Bavaria, etc. Just need batteries, power conversion electronics, and electric motors.

    Adequate sheet metal can be fabricated in most developing countries, and other automotive components can be procured from global auto parts OEMs like Bosch, Delphi, Magna, Renesas, etc. Martyanov would rightly point out that China has a long way to go to match these top tier global suppliers.

    Chinese metallurgy has a poor reputation, so perhaps high strength steel and aluminum alloys for globally competitive Chinese EVs will need to be sourced from Japan, America, South Korea, Russia, and Europe.

    BYD is also now manufacturing monorail systems. Their monorail system supposedly requires much lower capex than a traditional system, though I don’t know the reason why.

    Read More
    ReplyAgree/Disagree/Etc. More... This Commenter This Thread Hide Thread Display All Comments
  14. @Anonymous
    I'm seriously hoping they can cure baldness. We've been hearing for decades now in the US from scientists about how a baldness cure is imminent and just "5 years away" with no results.

    Forget about it. Consider looking more like a ‘bouncer, ‘ex marine’, and even a ‘bad ass’:

    Read More
    • Replies: @Anonymous
    I'm serious. Baldness sucks, and after decades of false hopes and promises from the US and the West about a cure, Chinese science would get a lot more respect if it found a cure soon.
    , @Erik Sieven
    Hair replacement seems to work well nowadays, see e.g. Elon Musk oder the german soccer trainer Jürgen Klopp. I would say, this IS the cure.
    ReplyAgree/Disagree/Etc. More... This Commenter This Thread Hide Thread Display All Comments
  15. Anglo/Germanic.

    I like this.

    Does that mean we get to claim the Jews as “ours”?

    Read More
    • Replies: @neutral

    Does that mean we get to claim the Jews as “ours”?
     
    The jew does this all the time with that stupid "Judeo-Christian" garbage.
    ReplyAgree/Disagree/Etc. More... This Commenter This Thread Hide Thread Display All Comments
  16. Anonymous • Disclaimer says:

    Ah, China! What can I say? Once again, it appears to confirm that all stereotypes are true.

    As an academic in STEM, I have lots of experience with Chinese students. Unlike Indians students (a mind-boggling percent of whom are quite literally stupid), the Chinese are all very studious and, mostly, noticeably bright. Still, in comparison to their American and European counterparts, they do seem to lack some “spark”. Perfectly happy to do known things (and do them well) but hardly ever feeling a desire to try/think of the new things. Perhaps related, the Chinese seem to almost completely lack chutzpa to bullshit you (like really bullshit you even when they know for certain that what they say is not true). In contrast, white students, even when not particularly bright, regularly come up with what I call “hillbilly solutions” (ingenious, even if frequently poorly thought-through, new designs).

    That said, there are of course exceptions and I must say that those Chinese students that do have that originality part tend to be absolutely outstanding and a pleasure to work with. My sample number is too small to be sure but my impression is that appreciably higher % of Japanese have that “spark” in them.

    However, given how many Chinese exist, the sheer number of smart and creative ones is still very large. The real question is then this: is it a “smart fraction” or a “critical mass” that matters?

    Read More
    • Replies: @Anonymous
    Even if you are correct, how many elites with a "spark" are needed? I think China with a huge base if competent people led by their own elites who have the "it" factor will do quite well.

    Meanwhile, America relies on Jews and Anglos who don't have the best interest of the country at hand and don't have the same level of competency at the second level.
    , @jbwilson24
    Look, I’m generally quite pro-Chinese. My father is from Hong Kong, half of my friends are Hong Kong Chinese, and I feel more comfortable there than in many other places (despite not speaking the language).

    I’m delighted to see the rise of China as a scientific and engineering world power. China is merely reclaiming its rightful place as one of the world’s leading civilizations.

    Having said that, I also have some reservations about a lot of the asian ‘super students’ that come to the USA. There’s a lot of parental and peer pressure on them to succeed, which generally means that they are forced into fields instead of being drawn to them out of interest.

    My favorite question at career fairs is lobbed at Chinese students when they come up to me and say “I am really interested in machine learning”.

    I ask “why?”

    They invariably relapse into shocked science. I follow that up with “because it is a hot area and you want a job. Have you ever read other areas of AI like constraint satisfaction, local search, representation and reasoning…”. Yes, I’m a bit of a jerk, but I’m trying to drive home a point. Very few actually go into the sciences out of intellectual curiosity in the sciences (e.g., McCulloch, who went to a library and started reading the Principia Mathematica for the hell of it).

    None of them can give me a suitable answer for why they are interested in the field. Big red flag.

    On the whole, I find Asian students tend to cheat like mad. They study in groups, cheat on assignments, and cheat on exams. I had a rather famous prof in a PhD-level computational geometry class admonish his class on account of the Chinese contingent and their penchant for copying the answers to homework problems out of books. They would go research the answers and regurgitate them, which was the last thing that the professor wanted to see. (Recent research appears to back up the cheating claim, by the way).

    I’ve had students threaten suicide in course evaluation forms. Not as a vindictive measure, but because there is so much pressure on them to succeed that they take failure very badly.

    This is not a reflection on intelligence or the like, but on the cultural trappings. Russians, Serbs, Ukrainians and others from the former Soviet States tend to cheat as well, but they don’t have the same parental pressure.

    In my 7 or so years teaching university courses, I simply have never seen a Chinese student who was intellectually curious and willing to waste time chasing a topic for mere intellectual curiosity. Hence, I’m not convinced that they are anywhere equal to the eccentric Jewish and European scientists that tended to do the more groundbreaking work. The next paradigm shift may come from China, but the jury is out. At ‘normal’ science, the Chinese discipline definitely pays off.
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  17. @iffen
    Anglo/Germanic.

    I like this.

    Does that mean we get to claim the Jews as "ours"?

    Does that mean we get to claim the Jews as “ours”?

    The jew does this all the time with that stupid “Judeo-Christian” garbage.

    Read More
    ReplyAgree/Disagree/Etc. More... This Commenter This Thread Hide Thread Display All Comments
  18. Anonymous • Disclaimer says:
    @neutral
    Lets hypothetically say that China ruled the world, as a white nationalist would it be worse than the international jew types like Soros, Zuckerberg, Kushner, Bernard Levy, etc, that are currently ruling it?

    Having said that, even with a completely browned America, I don't think that China will rule the world (just to make it clear I am not saying the browned America will still be able to rule it), I just cannot envisage how the Chinese will dictate a culture to the rest of the world like the US does, there is nothing that I can see that they want to do this.

    Anything resembling a multipolar world would be good for the world including whites in America.

    I don’t think China is going for world power, but I could see many countries carve up a lot of the power vacuum that Anglo-Zionists currently take up which is a good thing.

    China, Russia, Iran, Japan, Brazil, etc etc.

    Read More
    ReplyAgree/Disagree/Etc. More... This Commenter This Thread Hide Thread Display All Comments
  19. Anonymous • Disclaimer says:
    @Anonymous
    Ah, China! What can I say? Once again, it appears to confirm that all stereotypes are true.

    As an academic in STEM, I have lots of experience with Chinese students. Unlike Indians students (a mind-boggling percent of whom are quite literally stupid), the Chinese are all very studious and, mostly, noticeably bright. Still, in comparison to their American and European counterparts, they do seem to lack some "spark". Perfectly happy to do known things (and do them well) but hardly ever feeling a desire to try/think of the new things. Perhaps related, the Chinese seem to almost completely lack chutzpa to bullshit you (like really bullshit you even when they know for certain that what they say is not true). In contrast, white students, even when not particularly bright, regularly come up with what I call "hillbilly solutions" (ingenious, even if frequently poorly thought-through, new designs).

    That said, there are of course exceptions and I must say that those Chinese students that do have that originality part tend to be absolutely outstanding and a pleasure to work with. My sample number is too small to be sure but my impression is that appreciably higher % of Japanese have that "spark" in them.

    However, given how many Chinese exist, the sheer number of smart and creative ones is still very large. The real question is then this: is it a "smart fraction" or a "critical mass" that matters?

    Even if you are correct, how many elites with a “spark” are needed? I think China with a huge base if competent people led by their own elites who have the “it” factor will do quite well.

    Meanwhile, America relies on Jews and Anglos who don’t have the best interest of the country at hand and don’t have the same level of competency at the second level.

    Read More
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  20. @Mr. Hack
    Forget about it. Consider looking more like a 'bouncer, 'ex marine', and even a 'bad ass':

    https://youtu.be/AD-E2B5GfI8

    I’m serious. Baldness sucks, and after decades of false hopes and promises from the US and the West about a cure, Chinese science would get a lot more respect if it found a cure soon.

    Read More
    • Replies: @Twinkie

    I’m serious. Baldness sucks,
     
    Pick better parents.
    , @Mr. Hack
    I'm serious too. A bald dude with a stylish goatee looks way cool...
    , @TT
    Just goggle Chinese TCM treatment for bold & hair loss.

    There are quite many traditional hair growing treatments with long history in Taiwan, HK, China, Singapore, Malaysia you find plenty of such treatment. One famous brand is Beijing 101. See if you have any luck.
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  21. @Anonymous
    Ah, China! What can I say? Once again, it appears to confirm that all stereotypes are true.

    As an academic in STEM, I have lots of experience with Chinese students. Unlike Indians students (a mind-boggling percent of whom are quite literally stupid), the Chinese are all very studious and, mostly, noticeably bright. Still, in comparison to their American and European counterparts, they do seem to lack some "spark". Perfectly happy to do known things (and do them well) but hardly ever feeling a desire to try/think of the new things. Perhaps related, the Chinese seem to almost completely lack chutzpa to bullshit you (like really bullshit you even when they know for certain that what they say is not true). In contrast, white students, even when not particularly bright, regularly come up with what I call "hillbilly solutions" (ingenious, even if frequently poorly thought-through, new designs).

    That said, there are of course exceptions and I must say that those Chinese students that do have that originality part tend to be absolutely outstanding and a pleasure to work with. My sample number is too small to be sure but my impression is that appreciably higher % of Japanese have that "spark" in them.

    However, given how many Chinese exist, the sheer number of smart and creative ones is still very large. The real question is then this: is it a "smart fraction" or a "critical mass" that matters?

    Look, I’m generally quite pro-Chinese. My father is from Hong Kong, half of my friends are Hong Kong Chinese, and I feel more comfortable there than in many other places (despite not speaking the language).

    I’m delighted to see the rise of China as a scientific and engineering world power. China is merely reclaiming its rightful place as one of the world’s leading civilizations.

    Having said that, I also have some reservations about a lot of the asian ‘super students’ that come to the USA. There’s a lot of parental and peer pressure on them to succeed, which generally means that they are forced into fields instead of being drawn to them out of interest.

    My favorite question at career fairs is lobbed at Chinese students when they come up to me and say “I am really interested in machine learning”.

    I ask “why?”

    They invariably relapse into shocked science. I follow that up with “because it is a hot area and you want a job. Have you ever read other areas of AI like constraint satisfaction, local search, representation and reasoning…”. Yes, I’m a bit of a jerk, but I’m trying to drive home a point. Very few actually go into the sciences out of intellectual curiosity in the sciences (e.g., McCulloch, who went to a library and started reading the Principia Mathematica for the hell of it).

    None of them can give me a suitable answer for why they are interested in the field. Big red flag.

    On the whole, I find Asian students tend to cheat like mad. They study in groups, cheat on assignments, and cheat on exams. I had a rather famous prof in a PhD-level computational geometry class admonish his class on account of the Chinese contingent and their penchant for copying the answers to homework problems out of books. They would go research the answers and regurgitate them, which was the last thing that the professor wanted to see. (Recent research appears to back up the cheating claim, by the way).

    I’ve had students threaten suicide in course evaluation forms. Not as a vindictive measure, but because there is so much pressure on them to succeed that they take failure very badly.

    This is not a reflection on intelligence or the like, but on the cultural trappings. Russians, Serbs, Ukrainians and others from the former Soviet States tend to cheat as well, but they don’t have the same parental pressure.

    In my 7 or so years teaching university courses, I simply have never seen a Chinese student who was intellectually curious and willing to waste time chasing a topic for mere intellectual curiosity. Hence, I’m not convinced that they are anywhere equal to the eccentric Jewish and European scientists that tended to do the more groundbreaking work. The next paradigm shift may come from China, but the jury is out. At ‘normal’ science, the Chinese discipline definitely pays off.

    Read More
    • Agree: Anatoly Karlin
    • Replies: @Daniel Chieh
    I think there's a filtering process in the "super students", especially those who make it to the United States. A lot of those would be specifically individuals who are looking simply to make a buck. And this is indeed a cultural issue, I would say:I can relate at least one older Chinese friend who was active in a field of bioinformatics because it was something he wanted to do, something which he was intuitively curious about. But of course, he did not pursue it for very long because familial pressure told him with his same effort, why didn't he become a database engineer which would be paid much better?

    So he did, and perhaps in a particularly toxic way, actually advised me to give up my other interests in the same way, that research was "interesting and fascinating, but you will be poor, and disappoint your family."

    I do believe that as general wealth increases, however, and role models change from the archetype(Jack Ma, for example, didn't go to any of the famous universities, had terrible academics and basically met a bunch of guys in college and started a business), more people will be encouraged to pursue things for themselves rather than for a notion that "its best for the family."
    , @Icm2
    Whenever I read opinions about the creativity of Chinese students from professors at presumably American universities, I immediately let out a jaded sigh. The vast majority of Westerners are incapable of objectively overcoming the combined effects of confirmation/selective bias and the intrinsic personality characteristics of Chinese. Let me disclose that I myself am Han Chinese by ethnicity, so feel free to dismiss my entire reply if you believe my arguments are invalid for this reason. I personally think anyone who does will forever be prone to underestimating East Asians, but hey, it keeps them mentally comfortable (or, from my perspective, complacent).

    There are simply more Chinese studying these fields due to the cultural reasons you mentioned, so it should be unsurprising that the proportion you encounter who appear uninspired is higher than for other groups. Accordingly, you are more likely to encounter white American women interested in AI who have the "creative spark" simply because they are the cream of the crop; the ones who lacked the mettle or talent were already weeded out early on or were never interested in/pressured to study STEM in the first place. Your assessment of Chinese cheating falls under this bias as well and is thus invalid for evaluating Chinese creative ability, even if you can provide the research which you said supports you (hint: I doubt researchers could've controlled for level of parental pressure, i.e. forcing kids to stay in fields for which they are intellectually unsuited.)

    As for personality characteristics, Chinese and other East Asians lean toward meekness and timidity in relationships with a power imbalance and a lack of social familiarity (the latter factor is particularly strong and often overpowers the need for the former in triggering this disposition), such as the one that dominates your experiences - between a student and a professor. Someone mentioned that there is a serious lack of chutzpah among Chinese and I agree. It's not hard to imagine what specific cultural factors cause this difference between them and Jews/Westerners. On the other hand, they are generally more introverted and this may not be due to culture but rather genetics. However, as prominent American researchers on the subject have pointed out, introversion does not imply less colorful, vibrant, or original thought processes. Aside from introversion, social sensitivity is intrinsically higher among Chinese as well (the existence of "face" is likely ultimately motivated by genetics), and Chinese unfamiliar with the Anglo tradition of caustic humor invariably do not react well to it. Considering your profession again, language barrier is likely another factor contributing to your impression of them being intellectually lackluster.

    Your remark implying the relative creative superiority of Japanese raises additional skepticism about your inability to overcome certain biases. It's a common for Americans to assume the Japanese have a culture inherently better at fostering creativity than the Chinese due to the popular image of Japan in America, but I have done enough comparative research and had enough personal exchanges to conclude this assumption is definitely false. In fact, China's much better at funding startups and creating tech unicorns than Japan. Japan's independent VC culture hardly exists. Expect to see the next generation of innovative Asian tech companies arise in China, not Japan.

    Since it's doubtful that anyone who's still skeptical about me and the Chinese will take my credentials seriously, I'll omit any in-depth discussion of my overall experiences of working with ethnic Chinese (from all of Greater China and its SEA/Western diaspora). I'll just leave you with the conclusion that my experiences are in accord with what I have laid out here, and I do not believe I am susceptible to biases of personal observation since I always make a conscious effort to overcome them. I also rank personal observation lower than researched information in my worldview. Anyway, I think the biggest takeaway to anyone reading this is that you shouldn't judge a blank-faced, tight-lipped Chinese (also referred to in the past as the "inscrutable Oriental") who gives short, clichéd answers as having few thoughts that are intellectually or creatively remarkable. Or, if you are so sure that most of the Chinese whom you have met do fit this description, that their disproportionate presence in your life implies a proportionally lower number of creative minds among all Chinese relative to all Anglos.

    , @TT
    One of my professor(chinese ethnic) shared, he was Top2 during his study in MIT. So he visited that Top1 guy to find out why. That guy told he all he want is to spend time enjoying his research in lab.

    That make the different between driven by desire to achieve vs interest. So that Prof adviced us to take up subject that interest us only. Didn't we always know our hobby better than out hated job?

    China has just finished its stage1(base preparation), starting stage2( innovation on priority fields like AI, semicon,..). When they attained parity with US/EU/Japan to support stage3(interest based) it will be very interesting to see emerging of top scientists like Qian Xuesen, but in China's number!
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  22. @Anonymous
    I'm serious. Baldness sucks, and after decades of false hopes and promises from the US and the West about a cure, Chinese science would get a lot more respect if it found a cure soon.

    I’m serious. Baldness sucks,

    Pick better parents.

    Read More
    • Replies: @Anonymous
    Male pattern baldness affects most men.
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  23. @Twinkie

    I’m serious. Baldness sucks,
     
    Pick better parents.

    Male pattern baldness affects most men.

    Read More
    • Replies: @Anonymous
    FYI: Amerindians are mostly immune to male baldness.
    , @Lars Porsena
    All the more reason not to let it bother you. Baldness is a secondary sexual characteristic. It means you are done with puberty and you have successfully developed testosterone. Why do you want to look like women and children?
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  24. @Anonymous
    Male pattern baldness affects most men.

    FYI: Amerindians are mostly immune to male baldness.

    Read More
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  25. @Andrei Martyanov

    Given its own policies, and those of the US, China is on track to become the world’s innovation leader. By the end of 2018, it will be more apparent just how quickly and easily this latest chapter in the Chinese success story will be written.
     
    The quote from the original source. It is understandable that for people for whom manufacturing is embodied in iPhones and "supercomputers" it is difficult to grasp that the first thing one with any clue has to do is to begin to look at the bang for a buck. This is not to mention that anytime US "GDP" numbers come up it becomes a cringe-worthy moment. Back to China: despite lofty slogans--here is my "prediction"--by 2025 China will NOT have:

    1. Good (forget excellent) jet engine;
    2. Competitive commercial aircraft, forget good one;
    3. She still will not have real 5th generation fighter plane;
    4. Chinese nuclear submarines will continue to be generation behind US and Russian nuclear subs;
    5. No good car from China;
    6....

    etc.

    They are making strides, no doubt about it, they are also investing more in PR campaigns, but reality on the ground in fields that really matter remains, how to put it mildly, not as black and white. In general, at least for now, anything indigenous Chinese-designed in fields which matter is not impressive, to put it mildly. Much more goes into this than financing, however important.


    I have a 4,000 word post on that ready to go in due course.
     
    What a coincidence, I have about the same size article in works (hopefully by Monday I will finish it) precisely on Russo-Chinese "Alliance" revisit. A lot more substantive information came up recently, which requires elaboration.

    They have the world’s biggest and fastest growing auto market right there. Why on earth would they compete for scraps in the world’s most overcrowded and stagnant markets?

    Read More
    • Replies: @Andrei Martyanov

    They have the world’s biggest and fastest growing auto market right there. Why on earth would they compete
     
    I didn't say anything about competition. I merely pointed out that they will not have a good car by 2025, be it for external or internal market--doesn't matter. And they will not. Everything car-wise (that is commercial passenger vehicles) they produced so far is beyond even shoddy quality and reliability of late 2000-s Russian-made cars many of which were viewed with scorn. I saw their cars, they are pretty much along the lines of their aircraft.
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  26. A plot of the http://www.NatureIndex.com WFC scores and the projections make the picture clearer.

    http://tinypic.com/view.php?pic=2vxi252&s=9

    With current trends the crossing points:

    EventYr Defender Challenger
    2023.70 USA, China
    2033.81 USA, UK
    2034.15 USA, Germany
    2035.65 USA, India
    2036.50 USA, Russia

    2025.74 Japan, India
    2028.29 Japan, France
    2028.81 Japan, Russia
    2029.29 Japan, South Korea

    2024.33 France, India
    2029.11 France, Russia
    2030.38 France, South Korea

    A glimpse into the Chinese research priority can be estimated from the so called “double first” disciplines as determined by the state council. Physics ranks poorly at no. 11. Ecology and Envir Sci rank prominently at no. 5 and 7. Supercomputer hardware has no unique category most probably grouped with Electronic Eng at no. 80. Fast train transport eng at no. 27. Aerospace at no. 52. Metallurgy at no. 71 though materials eng at no. 1.

    Rank Ncourse Discipline
    1 30 Materials Science and Engineering
    2 25 Chemistry
    3 16 Biology
    4 14 Mathematics
    5 11 Ecology
    6 10 Mechanical Engineering
    7 9 Environmental Science and Engineering
    7 9 Chemical Engineering and Technology
    9 8 Foundation Medicine
    9 8 Civil Engineering
    11 7 Pharmacy
    11 7 Statistics
    11 7 Electrical Engineering
    11 7 Physics
    11 7 Mechanics
    24 5 Software Engineering
    27 4 Business Administration
    27 4 Transport Engineering
    34 3 Biomedical Engineering
    52 2 Aerospace Science and Technology
    52 2 Nuclear Science and Technology
    52 2 Mechanical Aerospace and Manufacturing Engineering
    52 2 Astronomy
    71 2 Metallurgical Engineering
    80 1 Electrical and Electronic Engineering

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  27. @Anonymous
    Male pattern baldness affects most men.

    All the more reason not to let it bother you. Baldness is a secondary sexual characteristic. It means you are done with puberty and you have successfully developed testosterone. Why do you want to look like women and children?

    Read More
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  28. @Andrei Martyanov

    Given its own policies, and those of the US, China is on track to become the world’s innovation leader. By the end of 2018, it will be more apparent just how quickly and easily this latest chapter in the Chinese success story will be written.
     
    The quote from the original source. It is understandable that for people for whom manufacturing is embodied in iPhones and "supercomputers" it is difficult to grasp that the first thing one with any clue has to do is to begin to look at the bang for a buck. This is not to mention that anytime US "GDP" numbers come up it becomes a cringe-worthy moment. Back to China: despite lofty slogans--here is my "prediction"--by 2025 China will NOT have:

    1. Good (forget excellent) jet engine;
    2. Competitive commercial aircraft, forget good one;
    3. She still will not have real 5th generation fighter plane;
    4. Chinese nuclear submarines will continue to be generation behind US and Russian nuclear subs;
    5. No good car from China;
    6....

    etc.

    They are making strides, no doubt about it, they are also investing more in PR campaigns, but reality on the ground in fields that really matter remains, how to put it mildly, not as black and white. In general, at least for now, anything indigenous Chinese-designed in fields which matter is not impressive, to put it mildly. Much more goes into this than financing, however important.


    I have a 4,000 word post on that ready to go in due course.
     
    What a coincidence, I have about the same size article in works (hopefully by Monday I will finish it) precisely on Russo-Chinese "Alliance" revisit. A lot more substantive information came up recently, which requires elaboration.

    That literally doesn’t mean anything.

    Russia can make world class jet engines, but has Russia ever made a world class smart phone or automobile?

    That must make Russians stupid right?

    Different societies specialize in different fields due to different skill sets and opportunities.

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    • Agree: melanf
    • Replies: @Andrei Martyanov

    That literally doesn’t mean anything.
     
    Sure, for Wall-Street "educated" economists it doesn't. But it does. It is, however, very difficult to explain to people who use smart-phone "argument" that, as an example< Russia does produce (manufactures) own processors while China merely packs someone's "crystals" into the box. People who have a clue they know implications. But since your horizons are limited by smart-phones, here is a Russian one:

    https://yotaphone.com/gb-en/

    It is impossible to explain to new generation of people who never dealt with modern industry, such as you, what a massive difference in technological cycle prowess between producing a jet engine and of some shitty smart-phone is. I'll give you one hint--Chinese metallurgy is not a world-class and that is why their aircraft, submarines and other things of this nature are very sub-par.
    , @DB Cooper
    Russia doesn't make world class jet engines. Their jet engines are notorious of having short lifespan compare to US jet engines. The vector thrust engines the Russians sold to India for the SU 30 MKI has a lifespan of only 40 hours!
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  29. @Anonymous
    I'm serious. Baldness sucks, and after decades of false hopes and promises from the US and the West about a cure, Chinese science would get a lot more respect if it found a cure soon.

    I’m serious too. A bald dude with a stylish goatee looks way cool…

    Read More
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  30. I am not sure that no. of published papers etc. are a good metric of progress. Also spending levels (gdp %) are generally meaningless and in the case of Chinese gov. accounting I would be extra skeptical. A lot of science money in the US and Europe is wasted on BS, as the grant schemes are constructed around exploitable parameters, such as no. of citations. Sabine Hossenfelder had a nice write up a some time ago, but it was a hot topic even in the Czech republic and elsewhere this year. (http://backreaction.blogspot.sk/2017/12/research-perversions-are-spreading-you.html)

    Again, in China, I would bet the situation is even worse, because everything they do, they do on steroids. You may be gravely underestimating the shoddiness and outright corruption of Chinese science output. Chinese scientist are paid bonuses for publishing in journals. It created a whole economy around it. Besides ”The number of paper corrections authored by Chinese scholars increased from 2 in 1996 to 1,234 in 2016, a historic high” (from https://www.technologyreview.com/s/608266/the-truth-about-chinas-cash-for-publication-policy/)

    That being said, all things considering China, I got to a stage of ‘ I don’t know’. In the past two years, I got really frustrated because none of our economic models seem to work or make sense of WTF is going on in the country. One thing though, is for sure: they are LYING pretty much in everything considering statistics and numbers – from PBOC numbers to small business balance sheets. They even fake their social/credit rankings(https://www.wired.com/story/age-of-social-credit/?utm_source=pocket&utm_medium=email&utm_campaign=pockethits)

    I can’t lose the feeling that it’s a house of cards ready to fall apart, because no matter the industry in China, it all comes back to the real estate credit and derivatives.

    ”The median price in the United States for real estate is $139 per square foot. Tier two cities in China are currently $170 with Tier three cities a more pedestrian $110. Using conservative extrapolations of national housing prices in China yield a current average price per square foot of $191 per square foot. To provide some perspective, residential real estate in China is 38% more expensive on a price per square foot basis but nominal per capita GDP in the United States is 608% higher.”

    If the house comes down, all the growth curve projections and all the industries and tech that don’t yet exist will be put on hold. (or will they?It depends on how bad the situation really is. Nobody seems to know anything for sure, even those who do)(http://www.baldingsworld.com/2017/10/23/everything-we-think-we-know-about-chinese-finances-is-wrong/)

    Read More
    • Replies: @Polish Perspective
    Your post is a bit rambling (with all due respect) but it deserves attention, especially for the last two points you make.

    I'm also worried about Chinese instability. I've read the recent IMF report on financial stability and their estimate of China's true budget deficit is closer to 10% once you include off-the-books LFV(local financing vehicles) rather than the official 3%.

    The PBoC has recently come out and massively upped their previous estimate of the shadow economy, which is what your last link is about. China does have three major defence barriers. One, very high savings. Two, minimal reliance on foreign funding of their bond markets as well as minimal penetration of foreign banks. Three, strong forex reserves.

    But all three defences cannot prevent a crisis, it can only soften it substantially. The problem would then be, as Arthur Kroeber has pointed out, a Japanese stagnation but at much lower per capita GDP. The Chinese banking system is essentially lending to itself.

    Another thing which has exploded in the last 3 years especially is WMP - wealth management products - these are essentially subprime investments in many cases. Chinese retail investors can purchase them through WeChat or Alipay and massive amounts of them have done so, since they get guaranteed returns(that's a Ponzi scheme if there ever was one).

    TSF - total social financing, China's term for nominal credit growth - is still increasing substantially faster than nominal GDP. China's total debt to GDP (household, private non-financial debt as well as governmental debt) is closer to 340% if you use conservative estimates. If you use the recently updated shadow banking estimates, the figure shoots up to 650%, which is higher than almost any other industrial economy except Japan.

    I don't write this with glee. I genuinely want to see a strong China challenge the US, but there are clear and present dangers to this happening unless they get their massive credit bubble under control.

    http://www.valuewalk.com/wp-content/uploads/2017/08/china-credit-bubble-crescat-capital.png

    That image is based on BIS data, which is using much more conservative estimates than even the IMF is. If you use the IMF estimates, the Chinese bubble shoots up way higher. And as economic historians will tell you, it's not as much the absolute level that matters(though it still does) it is the speed with which it was attained. In that sense, China has a lot in common with Spain. And as I mentioned, TSF is still increasing significantly faster than nominal GDP growth, meaning they are continually leveraging their economy in an unsustainable way. This cannot continue forever, with with their Three Defences.

    P.S. This is a good commentary on the subject. It also uses more conservative official data.

    https://www.merics.org/sites/default/files/2017-10/191017_merics_ChinaMonitor_42.pdf

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  31. @jbwilson24
    Look, I’m generally quite pro-Chinese. My father is from Hong Kong, half of my friends are Hong Kong Chinese, and I feel more comfortable there than in many other places (despite not speaking the language).

    I’m delighted to see the rise of China as a scientific and engineering world power. China is merely reclaiming its rightful place as one of the world’s leading civilizations.

    Having said that, I also have some reservations about a lot of the asian ‘super students’ that come to the USA. There’s a lot of parental and peer pressure on them to succeed, which generally means that they are forced into fields instead of being drawn to them out of interest.

    My favorite question at career fairs is lobbed at Chinese students when they come up to me and say “I am really interested in machine learning”.

    I ask “why?”

    They invariably relapse into shocked science. I follow that up with “because it is a hot area and you want a job. Have you ever read other areas of AI like constraint satisfaction, local search, representation and reasoning…”. Yes, I’m a bit of a jerk, but I’m trying to drive home a point. Very few actually go into the sciences out of intellectual curiosity in the sciences (e.g., McCulloch, who went to a library and started reading the Principia Mathematica for the hell of it).

    None of them can give me a suitable answer for why they are interested in the field. Big red flag.

    On the whole, I find Asian students tend to cheat like mad. They study in groups, cheat on assignments, and cheat on exams. I had a rather famous prof in a PhD-level computational geometry class admonish his class on account of the Chinese contingent and their penchant for copying the answers to homework problems out of books. They would go research the answers and regurgitate them, which was the last thing that the professor wanted to see. (Recent research appears to back up the cheating claim, by the way).

    I’ve had students threaten suicide in course evaluation forms. Not as a vindictive measure, but because there is so much pressure on them to succeed that they take failure very badly.

    This is not a reflection on intelligence or the like, but on the cultural trappings. Russians, Serbs, Ukrainians and others from the former Soviet States tend to cheat as well, but they don’t have the same parental pressure.

    In my 7 or so years teaching university courses, I simply have never seen a Chinese student who was intellectually curious and willing to waste time chasing a topic for mere intellectual curiosity. Hence, I’m not convinced that they are anywhere equal to the eccentric Jewish and European scientists that tended to do the more groundbreaking work. The next paradigm shift may come from China, but the jury is out. At ‘normal’ science, the Chinese discipline definitely pays off.

    I think there’s a filtering process in the “super students”, especially those who make it to the United States. A lot of those would be specifically individuals who are looking simply to make a buck. And this is indeed a cultural issue, I would say:I can relate at least one older Chinese friend who was active in a field of bioinformatics because it was something he wanted to do, something which he was intuitively curious about. But of course, he did not pursue it for very long because familial pressure told him with his same effort, why didn’t he become a database engineer which would be paid much better?

    So he did, and perhaps in a particularly toxic way, actually advised me to give up my other interests in the same way, that research was “interesting and fascinating, but you will be poor, and disappoint your family.”

    I do believe that as general wealth increases, however, and role models change from the archetype(Jack Ma, for example, didn’t go to any of the famous universities, had terrible academics and basically met a bunch of guys in college and started a business), more people will be encouraged to pursue things for themselves rather than for a notion that “its best for the family.”

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  32. @Mr. Hack
    Forget about it. Consider looking more like a 'bouncer, 'ex marine', and even a 'bad ass':

    https://youtu.be/AD-E2B5GfI8

    Hair replacement seems to work well nowadays, see e.g. Elon Musk oder the german soccer trainer Jürgen Klopp. I would say, this IS the cure.

    Read More
    • Replies: @5371
    If it really worked well, we wouldn't know it was there.
    , @Anonymous
    Yes, you're right that hair transplants are quite good these days. Much better than in the past. However, technically they aren't a cure because they involve moving hair follicles from the back of the head to the top and front. There is no net increase in follicles. Furthermore, hair loss can continue after transplants, and maintenance usually requires using drugs like Propecia or further transplants in the future.
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  33. @Erik Sieven
    Hair replacement seems to work well nowadays, see e.g. Elon Musk oder the german soccer trainer Jürgen Klopp. I would say, this IS the cure.

    If it really worked well, we wouldn’t know it was there.

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  34. @neutral
    Lets hypothetically say that China ruled the world, as a white nationalist would it be worse than the international jew types like Soros, Zuckerberg, Kushner, Bernard Levy, etc, that are currently ruling it?

    Having said that, even with a completely browned America, I don't think that China will rule the world (just to make it clear I am not saying the browned America will still be able to rule it), I just cannot envisage how the Chinese will dictate a culture to the rest of the world like the US does, there is nothing that I can see that they want to do this.

    I’m not sure that they actually can with the CCP still in power, at least independent of the West’s rot. However, supposing a rise to the top, I don’t think that would be a bad thing for whites at all.

    Along with Japan and SK, it’d be another example to throw in the face of the egalitarians, and a pretty good excuse (mantle being passed) to stop trying to uplift other groups. People unite against an outside threat more easily too. The West was much healthier before the USSR fell apart.

    I could actually imagine Chinese entertainment supplanting Hollywood. Not so much on the merits of their attempts to reach a Western audience so far, but more strictly on the possibility of creating a differentiated product, as they have the resources, and are not chained by the same political considerations. For instance, they could easily make the exact same blockbuster by importing white actors and using the same sets, special effects, and camera crews. Or they could make family films without gay characters or subversive songs like “Let It Go” being shoehorned in.

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  35. @bb.
    I am not sure that no. of published papers etc. are a good metric of progress. Also spending levels (gdp %) are generally meaningless and in the case of Chinese gov. accounting I would be extra skeptical. A lot of science money in the US and Europe is wasted on BS, as the grant schemes are constructed around exploitable parameters, such as no. of citations. Sabine Hossenfelder had a nice write up a some time ago, but it was a hot topic even in the Czech republic and elsewhere this year. (http://backreaction.blogspot.sk/2017/12/research-perversions-are-spreading-you.html)

    Again, in China, I would bet the situation is even worse, because everything they do, they do on steroids. You may be gravely underestimating the shoddiness and outright corruption of Chinese science output. Chinese scientist are paid bonuses for publishing in journals. It created a whole economy around it. Besides ''The number of paper corrections authored by Chinese scholars increased from 2 in 1996 to 1,234 in 2016, a historic high'' (from https://www.technologyreview.com/s/608266/the-truth-about-chinas-cash-for-publication-policy/)

    That being said, all things considering China, I got to a stage of ' I don't know'. In the past two years, I got really frustrated because none of our economic models seem to work or make sense of WTF is going on in the country. One thing though, is for sure: they are LYING pretty much in everything considering statistics and numbers - from PBOC numbers to small business balance sheets. They even fake their social/credit rankings(https://www.wired.com/story/age-of-social-credit/?utm_source=pocket&utm_medium=email&utm_campaign=pockethits)

    I can't lose the feeling that it's a house of cards ready to fall apart, because no matter the industry in China, it all comes back to the real estate credit and derivatives.

    ''The median price in the United States for real estate is $139 per square foot. Tier two cities in China are currently $170 with Tier three cities a more pedestrian $110. Using conservative extrapolations of national housing prices in China yield a current average price per square foot of $191 per square foot. To provide some perspective, residential real estate in China is 38% more expensive on a price per square foot basis but nominal per capita GDP in the United States is 608% higher.''

    If the house comes down, all the growth curve projections and all the industries and tech that don't yet exist will be put on hold. (or will they?It depends on how bad the situation really is. Nobody seems to know anything for sure, even those who do)(http://www.baldingsworld.com/2017/10/23/everything-we-think-we-know-about-chinese-finances-is-wrong/)

    Your post is a bit rambling (with all due respect) but it deserves attention, especially for the last two points you make.

    I’m also worried about Chinese instability. I’ve read the recent IMF report on financial stability and their estimate of China’s true budget deficit is closer to 10% once you include off-the-books LFV(local financing vehicles) rather than the official 3%.

    The PBoC has recently come out and massively upped their previous estimate of the shadow economy, which is what your last link is about. China does have three major defence barriers. One, very high savings. Two, minimal reliance on foreign funding of their bond markets as well as minimal penetration of foreign banks. Three, strong forex reserves.

    But all three defences cannot prevent a crisis, it can only soften it substantially. The problem would then be, as Arthur Kroeber has pointed out, a Japanese stagnation but at much lower per capita GDP. The Chinese banking system is essentially lending to itself.

    Another thing which has exploded in the last 3 years especially is WMP – wealth management products – these are essentially subprime investments in many cases. Chinese retail investors can purchase them through WeChat or Alipay and massive amounts of them have done so, since they get guaranteed returns(that’s a Ponzi scheme if there ever was one).

    TSF – total social financing, China’s term for nominal credit growth – is still increasing substantially faster than nominal GDP. China’s total debt to GDP (household, private non-financial debt as well as governmental debt) is closer to 340% if you use conservative estimates. If you use the recently updated shadow banking estimates, the figure shoots up to 650%, which is higher than almost any other industrial economy except Japan.

    I don’t write this with glee. I genuinely want to see a strong China challenge the US, but there are clear and present dangers to this happening unless they get their massive credit bubble under control.

    That image is based on BIS data, which is using much more conservative estimates than even the IMF is. If you use the IMF estimates, the Chinese bubble shoots up way higher. And as economic historians will tell you, it’s not as much the absolute level that matters(though it still does) it is the speed with which it was attained. In that sense, China has a lot in common with Spain. And as I mentioned, TSF is still increasing significantly faster than nominal GDP growth, meaning they are continually leveraging their economy in an unsustainable way. This cannot continue forever, with with their Three Defences.

    P.S. This is a good commentary on the subject. It also uses more conservative official data.

    https://www.merics.org/sites/default/files/2017-10/191017_merics_ChinaMonitor_42.pdf

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    • Replies: @Mitleser
    https://pbs.twimg.com/media/DSicrI_W4AECpVw.jpg
    https://t.co/44fOPWhLvn
    , @bb.
    rambling it may be, but that's almost today's norm when it comes to china ;)

    I agree with everything you write, but I would just add:
    1.Savings by themselves don't tell the whole story. They might be non performing liabilities for all we know. I read somewhere that most white collar Chinese have most (all) of their savings in WMPs, which, as you write are almost exclusively subprime (real estate) investments.
    Besides, Chinese households seem to be pretty indebted. The Mercator study you link to tries to downplay it by stating a ''modest 20% of overall bank assets''(more like 25%) but I am not sure what's modest about 1/4th. From the data, one can extrapolate a 70-100% ratio of debt to income for households which puts it on par with developed nations, which is...odd.
    2.Capital controls, or closing of the financial system is a potent policy tool but there are plentiful data which show, that it is absolutely not a guarantee of greater stability. In fact, it might become a liability if the shit goes down elsewhere. It's really a question of controlling the currency, it's outflows and asset prices. This point is tightly connected to no.3
    3. FX reserves is one area where I was rumbling when I said they are lying and/or nobody knows whats really going on. Here I will just link to two long posts by Balding in chronological order (as they are somewhat contradictory) tl;dr - the FX position is probably not that strong;within the next 3-12 months, the RMB will have to start drawing primarily from PBOC reserves rather than bank positions
    -http://www.baldingsworld.com/2017/06/30/how-chinese-banks-lowering-foreign-debt-facilitating-outflows/
    -http://www.baldingsworld.com/2017/07/17/is-the-pboc-fudging-fx-reserve-numbers/

    At the end of the day, if borrowers cannot repay their loans, savers won’t be able to access their savings, and there will a domestic financial crisis rather than a foreign capital outflow crisis.

    I share with you the desire to see a strong China a vis US but I am afraid the credit bubble cannot be contained for much longer and it's now a question of who dug himself into a deeper hole. The US and China run correlated monetary policies for many years but now will need to diverge.

    On a sidenote: the Chinese spend a lot on many things, including supercomputers and whatnot..capital accumulation is how they grow GDP. I would count publishing in papers as capital accumulation not human capital, as it seems, what they are interested in is the numbers, not results. But how they do GDP accounting is not so straightforward. Spending levels, at least here, even tough I still would call it meaningless in many cases, we have some standards and some common denominators, but China? Also, what do they do with all the supercomputers? Is it AliPay and WeChat calculating your social score?(that shit is scary btw)
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  36. Anonymous • Disclaimer says:
    @Erik Sieven
    Hair replacement seems to work well nowadays, see e.g. Elon Musk oder the german soccer trainer Jürgen Klopp. I would say, this IS the cure.

    Yes, you’re right that hair transplants are quite good these days. Much better than in the past. However, technically they aren’t a cure because they involve moving hair follicles from the back of the head to the top and front. There is no net increase in follicles. Furthermore, hair loss can continue after transplants, and maintenance usually requires using drugs like Propecia or further transplants in the future.

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  37. @5371
    They have the world's biggest and fastest growing auto market right there. Why on earth would they compete for scraps in the world's most overcrowded and stagnant markets?

    They have the world’s biggest and fastest growing auto market right there. Why on earth would they compete

    I didn’t say anything about competition. I merely pointed out that they will not have a good car by 2025, be it for external or internal market–doesn’t matter. And they will not. Everything car-wise (that is commercial passenger vehicles) they produced so far is beyond even shoddy quality and reliability of late 2000-s Russian-made cars many of which were viewed with scorn. I saw their cars, they are pretty much along the lines of their aircraft.

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    • Replies: @5371
    I can only think of two countries that make genuinely good cars. Evidently it isn't an important hurdle to clear, from a broader point of view.
    , @Miro23

    I didn’t say anything about competition. I merely pointed out that they will not have a good car by 2025, be it for external or internal market–doesn’t matter. And they will not. Everything car-wise (that is commercial passenger vehicles) they produced so far is beyond even shoddy quality and reliability of late 2000-s Russian-made cars many of which were viewed with scorn. I saw their cars, they are pretty much along the lines of their aircraft.
     
    But, they may be getting there indirectly.

    China's Geely Automobile bought Volvo from Ford in 2010 (the largest overseas acquisition by a Chinese automaker) with 2017 turning out to be a record sales year for the Volvo brand. Also, in the recently released 2017 J D Power UK Vehicle Dependability Study, Volvo came out top (1st out of 27) with BMW last (27th out of 27) and Audi next to last. Out of interest, the most faulty models were the Audi A4, A5, A6, Q3 and Q5, and the BMW 3 series and 4 series (with the Mercedes A class were right there with them).

    And there could be some déjà vu here.

    I can remember the received opinion in 1970's UK that the Japanese were incapable of making British quality cars, because they couldn't understand the finer points of automotive design (never would cure under steer).

    Also, there's the high predictability for national economic development of PISA test scores (international OECD testing of 15 year olds in maths, reading and science skills). In the latest 2015 results NE Asia was coming out top (again) and the US was behind Portugal, although it was managing to beat Israel (right on the lowest ranking).

    http://static6.businessinsider.com/image/5847101dba6eb637008b7bf9/the-latest-ranking-of-top-countries-in-math-reading-and-science-is-out--and-the-us-didnt-crack-the-top-10.jpg
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  38. @Anonymous
    That literally doesn't mean anything.

    Russia can make world class jet engines, but has Russia ever made a world class smart phone or automobile?

    That must make Russians stupid right?

    Different societies specialize in different fields due to different skill sets and opportunities.

    That literally doesn’t mean anything.

    Sure, for Wall-Street “educated” economists it doesn’t. But it does. It is, however, very difficult to explain to people who use smart-phone “argument” that, as an example< Russia does produce (manufactures) own processors while China merely packs someone's "crystals" into the box. People who have a clue they know implications. But since your horizons are limited by smart-phones, here is a Russian one:

    https://yotaphone.com/gb-en/

    It is impossible to explain to new generation of people who never dealt with modern industry, such as you, what a massive difference in technological cycle prowess between producing a jet engine and of some shitty smart-phone is. I'll give you one hint–Chinese metallurgy is not a world-class and that is why their aircraft, submarines and other things of this nature are very sub-par.

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    • Replies: @Spisarevski

    Russia does produce (manufactures) own processors while China merely packs someone's "crystals" into the box
     
    While the fact that Russia can produce its own processors is respectable and important with regards to Russian national security, you are very wrong on China -it does not "merely pack someone's crystals" - it produces a wide variety of its own fully native processors too. And not just widely available cheap commercial processors with ARM and MIPS architectures - the world's most powerful supercomputer is built with very efficient and fully native Chinese processors using a Chinese proprietary architecture (Sunway).
    , @Hippopotamusdrome
    Excerpt from a review of the Yoda-phone:


    YotaPhone 2 Review: More Than a Gimmick, Less Than a Good Phone
    ... I ran into many issues with the YotaPhone that I just didn’t have with other phones—things I don’t even usually need to test because I just take them for granted.
    ... The absolute most annoying one was the 3.5mm headphone jack. ... without fail, the YotaPhone would lose connection with my earbuds and my music would pause. After pressing play, since my headphones were very much still attached, the music would start playing out loud for all to hear

     

    , @Anonymous
    Andrei, you are all over the place and showing yourself to be a Russian nutter.

    Russia: Good
    Everyone else: Bad

    In a later comment you talk about how Chinese processors aren't worth anything because Intel has 91% market share.

    Tell me how much of a market share does the yota phone have? Must mean the pride of Russian bloggers everywhere phone is not garbage no?

    Iq is not a magical switch that lets smart people be good at everything. Countries and people specialize in what they have a competitive advantage in. So not building a world class jet engine proves nothing except for your ignorance.

    Also Korea and Japan have both gone from making poor quality cars to world class cars. Why can't China?

    China is just another 15-20 years behind Japan and Korea and your artificial deadlines don't mean anything.
    , @TT
    Regarding China inability to do semiconductor electronics, i don't agreed. How much do you know in semicon?

    In 1990's, they could reverse engineering any chips you like by slicing layers. Put this aside, Singapore Chartered transferred a 0.18um line to China which was then one of best. If China can't do IC design, what is that multi billions line doing there. They had already setup fab lines since 1980, but West was selling obsolete technology at top price purposely as sanction. China couldn't make the entire production chain themselves without economic of scale. Recently they announced their determination to be self reliance to avoid US threat, so they will produce entire complete chain from raw material fab till packaging and testors, every single equipments. All China gov sensitive computers already using indigenous CPU set, knowing US likely embedded something in Intel/AMD chipset(which just been expose recently).

    When US blocked Intel chip sales to China for Supercomputer usage, within one year China produce its own CPU with even more powerful supercomputer (rank No1&2). This is no mean feat. You can't achieve this just by simply assemble some chips, otherwise US/EU/Japan will do it to regain Top100 supercomputer that China dominate now.

    Personally i have a huge processor ASIC/ SOC project involved China engineer. When i presented to US, they couldn't believed Asia could do such big complex design, as only few like IBM could. And these was achieved with only two unimpressive China engineers(without a big team to help testing), they don't even understand English, torment by our poor translation, inferrior design tool, and supplier false factory data. They are genius to accomplish under such conditions. What's more to say with their top engineers back home using familiar language and design tools.
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  39. @Anonymous
    That literally doesn't mean anything.

    Russia can make world class jet engines, but has Russia ever made a world class smart phone or automobile?

    That must make Russians stupid right?

    Different societies specialize in different fields due to different skill sets and opportunities.

    Russia doesn’t make world class jet engines. Their jet engines are notorious of having short lifespan compare to US jet engines. The vector thrust engines the Russians sold to India for the SU 30 MKI has a lifespan of only 40 hours!

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    • Replies: @Andrei Martyanov

    The vector thrust engines the Russians sold to India for the SU 30 MKI has a lifespan of only 40 hours!
     
    Obviously you are on some very potent drugs, plus you obviously never heard of world-renown (or, rather, notorious) Indian "technical maintenance" practices. I also do not mention here India's military "negotiating" practices.

    It has a reputation for having a tremendous tolerance to severely disturbed air flow. In the twin-engined Su-27, the engines are interchangeable between left and right. The Mean Time Between Overhaul (MTBO) for the AL-31F is given at 1000 hours with a full-life span of 3000 hours. Some reports suggested that Russia was offering AL-31F to Iran to re-engine its F-14 Tomcat air fleet in the late 1990s.
     
    http://all-aero.com/index.php/contactus/64-engines-power/13288-lyulka-al-31-saturn-al-31-umpo-117

    I, of course, will not review here last 2 years of Russia's Air Force extremely high operational tempo in Syria which saw these very same engines perform in the most outstanding manner. Can it be something related to competent Russian pilots and excellent technical-support personnel on the ground? Hm, maybe?
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  40. @Andrei Martyanov

    That literally doesn’t mean anything.
     
    Sure, for Wall-Street "educated" economists it doesn't. But it does. It is, however, very difficult to explain to people who use smart-phone "argument" that, as an example< Russia does produce (manufactures) own processors while China merely packs someone's "crystals" into the box. People who have a clue they know implications. But since your horizons are limited by smart-phones, here is a Russian one:

    https://yotaphone.com/gb-en/

    It is impossible to explain to new generation of people who never dealt with modern industry, such as you, what a massive difference in technological cycle prowess between producing a jet engine and of some shitty smart-phone is. I'll give you one hint--Chinese metallurgy is not a world-class and that is why their aircraft, submarines and other things of this nature are very sub-par.

    Russia does produce (manufactures) own processors while China merely packs someone’s “crystals” into the box

    While the fact that Russia can produce its own processors is respectable and important with regards to Russian national security, you are very wrong on China -it does not “merely pack someone’s crystals” – it produces a wide variety of its own fully native processors too. And not just widely available cheap commercial processors with ARM and MIPS architectures – the world’s most powerful supercomputer is built with very efficient and fully native Chinese processors using a Chinese proprietary architecture (Sunway).

    Read More
    • Replies: @Andrei Martyanov

    While the fact that Russia can produce its own processors is respectable and important with regards to Russian national security
     
    This is the factor which goes as number one in ANY serious geopolitical player.

    the world’s most powerful supercomputer is built with very efficient and fully native Chinese processors using a Chinese proprietary architecture (Sunway).

     

    I kinda had a tangential moment once with this supercomputer business, so I did my due diligence a year or so ago:

    Despite those achievements, Intel still provided the chips for 91 percent of the machines on the list. And China is still catching up with the United States in state-of-the-art technologies, like software and the networking that links the thousands of chips in a modern supercomputer.
     
    https://www.nytimes.com/2016/06/21/technology/china-tops-list-of-fastest-computers-again.html

    As I said, as with so called Chinese 5th Generation Fighter (which it is not, not even close) it takes slightly more than some indices and rankings in pop-media to understand real implications. Just to give some example, for all its declared computational prowess PLA(N) are notoriously slow in entering Net-Centric Warfare Paradigm. As I already stated it not for once--while China does progress in many of those fields it remains patently clear that this "progress", despite declared prowess, is obviously not as fast or spectacular as one might have expected. Something is out there in China which continues to impede and make her development anemic in the fields which really matter for both national security and commercial use. I repeat, the development is there, but a lot of it is also a PR. In aerospace, which is in the top of the top of "indices" related to national scientific and industrial power China remains (surprisingly) a secondary derivative power and as the recent events ob CR 929 proved (yet again) basically tacitly admitted inability to develop world-class military or commercial aircraft. The question, thus, is this--where does this computing "power" go? I know opinions of Russian aerospace professionals on Chinese aerospace industry--to put it mildly they are not impressed at all.

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  41. @DB Cooper
    Russia doesn't make world class jet engines. Their jet engines are notorious of having short lifespan compare to US jet engines. The vector thrust engines the Russians sold to India for the SU 30 MKI has a lifespan of only 40 hours!

    The vector thrust engines the Russians sold to India for the SU 30 MKI has a lifespan of only 40 hours!

    Obviously you are on some very potent drugs, plus you obviously never heard of world-renown (or, rather, notorious) Indian “technical maintenance” practices. I also do not mention here India’s military “negotiating” practices.

    It has a reputation for having a tremendous tolerance to severely disturbed air flow. In the twin-engined Su-27, the engines are interchangeable between left and right. The Mean Time Between Overhaul (MTBO) for the AL-31F is given at 1000 hours with a full-life span of 3000 hours. Some reports suggested that Russia was offering AL-31F to Iran to re-engine its F-14 Tomcat air fleet in the late 1990s.

    http://all-aero.com/index.php/contactus/64-engines-power/13288-lyulka-al-31-saturn-al-31-umpo-117

    I, of course, will not review here last 2 years of Russia’s Air Force extremely high operational tempo in Syria which saw these very same engines perform in the most outstanding manner. Can it be something related to competent Russian pilots and excellent technical-support personnel on the ground? Hm, maybe?

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    • Replies: @DB Cooper
    Tell me about India’s military “negotiating” practices. Please expand on it.
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  42. @Spisarevski

    Russia does produce (manufactures) own processors while China merely packs someone's "crystals" into the box
     
    While the fact that Russia can produce its own processors is respectable and important with regards to Russian national security, you are very wrong on China -it does not "merely pack someone's crystals" - it produces a wide variety of its own fully native processors too. And not just widely available cheap commercial processors with ARM and MIPS architectures - the world's most powerful supercomputer is built with very efficient and fully native Chinese processors using a Chinese proprietary architecture (Sunway).

    While the fact that Russia can produce its own processors is respectable and important with regards to Russian national security

    This is the factor which goes as number one in ANY serious geopolitical player.

    the world’s most powerful supercomputer is built with very efficient and fully native Chinese processors using a Chinese proprietary architecture (Sunway).

    I kinda had a tangential moment once with this supercomputer business, so I did my due diligence a year or so ago:

    Despite those achievements, Intel still provided the chips for 91 percent of the machines on the list. And China is still catching up with the United States in state-of-the-art technologies, like software and the networking that links the thousands of chips in a modern supercomputer.

    https://www.nytimes.com/2016/06/21/technology/china-tops-list-of-fastest-computers-again.html

    As I said, as with so called Chinese 5th Generation Fighter (which it is not, not even close) it takes slightly more than some indices and rankings in pop-media to understand real implications. Just to give some example, for all its declared computational prowess PLA(N) are notoriously slow in entering Net-Centric Warfare Paradigm. As I already stated it not for once–while China does progress in many of those fields it remains patently clear that this “progress”, despite declared prowess, is obviously not as fast or spectacular as one might have expected. Something is out there in China which continues to impede and make her development anemic in the fields which really matter for both national security and commercial use. I repeat, the development is there, but a lot of it is also a PR. In aerospace, which is in the top of the top of “indices” related to national scientific and industrial power China remains (surprisingly) a secondary derivative power and as the recent events ob CR 929 proved (yet again) basically tacitly admitted inability to develop world-class military or commercial aircraft. The question, thus, is this–where does this computing “power” go? I know opinions of Russian aerospace professionals on Chinese aerospace industry–to put it mildly they are not impressed at all.

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    • Replies: @Kimppis
    Sigh... You're so uniformed about the Chinese military and military technology that it hurts...

    J-20 is very much a "real" 5th generation fighter. And it's operational before the Russian Su-57. Cry a little more and stop repeating that nonsense. Your opinion on it's worthless and is based on NOTHING.

    5th generation engine will be operational by the early 2020s.

    Type 095 SSNs should be competitive, operational by the early 2020s at the latest. Their SSKs are already very competitive, genius.

    C919 is competitive.

    Blah blah blah...

    Blah blah blah...

    But yeah sure, we'll see in 2025 indeed.

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  43. Megan McArdle recently had a good post about the dangers of using hard metrics to evaluate performance in soft fields like education and health care. No matter what the metrics are people learn to game them. This applies to science and especially Chinese science. I worked with Chinese and I know that they are world champions in gaming “objective” metrics.

    For example, increasing share of high-impact academic publications sounds impressive but I would like to take a closer look at the citations. Do Chinese increase their citation counts by citing each other incessantly? Worth checking out.

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    • Replies: @Anon
    "I worked with Chinese and I know that they are world champions in gaming “objective” metrics."

    Sounded like Clinton supporters whinging about Trump gaming the electoral colleges.

    Do you think you are smarter than the offshoot of Nature Journal about the quality of publications?
    , @bb.
    unfortunately, the cross-citation shenanigans is not only an issue in China, but also in the EU and US as well and what's worse, it goes on in high level fields such as particle physics and biotech. Check out the blog post by Sabine Hossenfelder I linked to above:

    “Ultimately, “all the money that was thrown at breast cancer created more problems than success,” Visco says. What seemed to drive many of the scientists was the desire to “get above the fold on the front page of the New York Times,” not to figure out how to end breast cancer. It seemed to her that creativity was being stifled as researchers displayed “a lemming effect,” chasing abundant research dollars as they rushed from one hot but ultimately fruitless topic to another. “We got tired of seeing so many people build their careers around one gene or one protein,” she says.”
    (http://backreaction.blogspot.sk/2017/12/research-perversions-are-spreading-you.html)

    I am not even starting with problems, such as how much money was wasted on studies which use p-hacking to get 'proofs'. Andrew Gelman has a whole blog about statistical corruption/dishonesty/misuse/incompetence
    (http://andrewgelman.com/)

    I would not be surprised if the situation in China was orders of magnitude worse than here, because their strategy seems to be: Throw money at stuff first, make due diligence....never?
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  44. @Andrei Martyanov

    The vector thrust engines the Russians sold to India for the SU 30 MKI has a lifespan of only 40 hours!
     
    Obviously you are on some very potent drugs, plus you obviously never heard of world-renown (or, rather, notorious) Indian "technical maintenance" practices. I also do not mention here India's military "negotiating" practices.

    It has a reputation for having a tremendous tolerance to severely disturbed air flow. In the twin-engined Su-27, the engines are interchangeable between left and right. The Mean Time Between Overhaul (MTBO) for the AL-31F is given at 1000 hours with a full-life span of 3000 hours. Some reports suggested that Russia was offering AL-31F to Iran to re-engine its F-14 Tomcat air fleet in the late 1990s.
     
    http://all-aero.com/index.php/contactus/64-engines-power/13288-lyulka-al-31-saturn-al-31-umpo-117

    I, of course, will not review here last 2 years of Russia's Air Force extremely high operational tempo in Syria which saw these very same engines perform in the most outstanding manner. Can it be something related to competent Russian pilots and excellent technical-support personnel on the ground? Hm, maybe?

    Tell me about India’s military “negotiating” practices. Please expand on it.

    Read More
    • Replies: @Andrei Martyanov

    Tell me about India’s military “negotiating” practices. Please expand on it.
     
    1. As a simple courtesy goes, I would have been more impressed with you explaining first from what ass did you pull this preposterous made up number of 40 hours? This fact alone already puts you into the category of trolls with no actual knowledge of the subject matter and who deliberately lie and BS to make their completely false point.

    2. India's negotiating practice was and is known for its classic erratic behavior of trying penny pinch by "wearing down" negotiating partners, as Dassault learned the hard way. I will go no further with that since I don't think you are worth any explaining on any serious matters.
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  45. @DB Cooper
    Tell me about India’s military “negotiating” practices. Please expand on it.

    Tell me about India’s military “negotiating” practices. Please expand on it.

    1. As a simple courtesy goes, I would have been more impressed with you explaining first from what ass did you pull this preposterous made up number of 40 hours? This fact alone already puts you into the category of trolls with no actual knowledge of the subject matter and who deliberately lie and BS to make their completely false point.

    2. India’s negotiating practice was and is known for its classic erratic behavior of trying penny pinch by “wearing down” negotiating partners, as Dassault learned the hard way. I will go no further with that since I don’t think you are worth any explaining on any serious matters.

    Read More
    • Replies: @Thorfinnsson
    This is how Indians are on everything, not just defense goods.

    We have a joint-venture company in India. We own 28% of the equity, and the Indians license our world-beating automatic voltage regulator technology.

    Occasionally there are sales inquiries from Indian companies for products not yet made by our Indian partners (our Indian company makes only our automatic voltage regulator, we make many more things in America).

    One recent customer asked me if I would please submit a costed bill of materials so they could ensure I was not making "too much profit".

    Naturally I told them to go pound sand. My Indian partners were shocked.
    , @TT
    Agreed. I have deals with India big company, asking price is 10% of my cost.

    When India wanted to build 1st class airport in Capital New Delhi, it insisted Singapore company put in contract half the construction time(huge compensation loss). So Singapore company withdraw. Smart British went in, delivered a shit. I was there, all system down.. ....tones of shit for $5Bil.

    Russia was smart to find away make India pay dearly for its aircraft carrier... so jet engine 40hrs is possible for the request price.
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  46. @Andrei Martyanov

    Given its own policies, and those of the US, China is on track to become the world’s innovation leader. By the end of 2018, it will be more apparent just how quickly and easily this latest chapter in the Chinese success story will be written.
     
    The quote from the original source. It is understandable that for people for whom manufacturing is embodied in iPhones and "supercomputers" it is difficult to grasp that the first thing one with any clue has to do is to begin to look at the bang for a buck. This is not to mention that anytime US "GDP" numbers come up it becomes a cringe-worthy moment. Back to China: despite lofty slogans--here is my "prediction"--by 2025 China will NOT have:

    1. Good (forget excellent) jet engine;
    2. Competitive commercial aircraft, forget good one;
    3. She still will not have real 5th generation fighter plane;
    4. Chinese nuclear submarines will continue to be generation behind US and Russian nuclear subs;
    5. No good car from China;
    6....

    etc.

    They are making strides, no doubt about it, they are also investing more in PR campaigns, but reality on the ground in fields that really matter remains, how to put it mildly, not as black and white. In general, at least for now, anything indigenous Chinese-designed in fields which matter is not impressive, to put it mildly. Much more goes into this than financing, however important.


    I have a 4,000 word post on that ready to go in due course.
     
    What a coincidence, I have about the same size article in works (hopefully by Monday I will finish it) precisely on Russo-Chinese "Alliance" revisit. A lot more substantive information came up recently, which requires elaboration.

    I don’t understand your contempt for iPhone. It’s a cluster of dozens of high technologies in one neat little package. More importantly, millions of people around the world want it.

    Soviet Union made great fighter jet engines, yet they were unable to provide their people with iPhone equivalents of the time. This was one of the major reasons for the collapse of the USSR.

    Read More
    • Replies: @Andrei Martyanov

    Soviet Union made great fighter jet engines, yet they were unable to provide their people with iPhone equivalents of the time. This was one of the major reasons for the collapse of the USSR.
     
    Soviet Union collapsed for a completely different reasons, among which deficit of some high quality consumer goods, was secondary if not tertiary factor. Soviet Union collapsed because of its multi-cultural nature with especially Middle Asia Republics being a gigantic drain and a source of instability (with Caucasus being second). The abyss separating the culture of Russia proper and of say Uzbekistan or any other place there is unbridgeable.

    I don’t understand your contempt for iPhone.
     
    I don't have contempt to a small electronic device. I do, however, have a contempt for the idea and culture behind it--mindless consumerism and superficiality of highly uneducated (I don't mean formal degrees) people. It is a material embodiment of such "phenomena" as a Face Book--a sort of mental illness of both human and economic nature. I have some smart-phone, some Samsung, I don't even know the model, which I would have never bought if not for my beloved Alcatel flip-phone simply dying on me.

    P.S. I know what technologies go into communications. I also have a very good idea of what it takes to build a good aircraft. Do the forensic experiment and mentally model what would happen if:

    a) people go back to a regular cell-phones (basic functions, some text etc.) and no Face Book;
    b) NO commercial aviation.
    , @iffen
    This was one of the major reasons for the collapse of the USSR.

    Perhaps exceeded only by the inability to manufacture a decent pair of blue jeans.
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  47. @jbwilson24
    Look, I’m generally quite pro-Chinese. My father is from Hong Kong, half of my friends are Hong Kong Chinese, and I feel more comfortable there than in many other places (despite not speaking the language).

    I’m delighted to see the rise of China as a scientific and engineering world power. China is merely reclaiming its rightful place as one of the world’s leading civilizations.

    Having said that, I also have some reservations about a lot of the asian ‘super students’ that come to the USA. There’s a lot of parental and peer pressure on them to succeed, which generally means that they are forced into fields instead of being drawn to them out of interest.

    My favorite question at career fairs is lobbed at Chinese students when they come up to me and say “I am really interested in machine learning”.

    I ask “why?”

    They invariably relapse into shocked science. I follow that up with “because it is a hot area and you want a job. Have you ever read other areas of AI like constraint satisfaction, local search, representation and reasoning…”. Yes, I’m a bit of a jerk, but I’m trying to drive home a point. Very few actually go into the sciences out of intellectual curiosity in the sciences (e.g., McCulloch, who went to a library and started reading the Principia Mathematica for the hell of it).

    None of them can give me a suitable answer for why they are interested in the field. Big red flag.

    On the whole, I find Asian students tend to cheat like mad. They study in groups, cheat on assignments, and cheat on exams. I had a rather famous prof in a PhD-level computational geometry class admonish his class on account of the Chinese contingent and their penchant for copying the answers to homework problems out of books. They would go research the answers and regurgitate them, which was the last thing that the professor wanted to see. (Recent research appears to back up the cheating claim, by the way).

    I’ve had students threaten suicide in course evaluation forms. Not as a vindictive measure, but because there is so much pressure on them to succeed that they take failure very badly.

    This is not a reflection on intelligence or the like, but on the cultural trappings. Russians, Serbs, Ukrainians and others from the former Soviet States tend to cheat as well, but they don’t have the same parental pressure.

    In my 7 or so years teaching university courses, I simply have never seen a Chinese student who was intellectually curious and willing to waste time chasing a topic for mere intellectual curiosity. Hence, I’m not convinced that they are anywhere equal to the eccentric Jewish and European scientists that tended to do the more groundbreaking work. The next paradigm shift may come from China, but the jury is out. At ‘normal’ science, the Chinese discipline definitely pays off.

    Whenever I read opinions about the creativity of Chinese students from professors at presumably American universities, I immediately let out a jaded sigh. The vast majority of Westerners are incapable of objectively overcoming the combined effects of confirmation/selective bias and the intrinsic personality characteristics of Chinese. Let me disclose that I myself am Han Chinese by ethnicity, so feel free to dismiss my entire reply if you believe my arguments are invalid for this reason. I personally think anyone who does will forever be prone to underestimating East Asians, but hey, it keeps them mentally comfortable (or, from my perspective, complacent).

    There are simply more Chinese studying these fields due to the cultural reasons you mentioned, so it should be unsurprising that the proportion you encounter who appear uninspired is higher than for other groups. Accordingly, you are more likely to encounter white American women interested in AI who have the “creative spark” simply because they are the cream of the crop; the ones who lacked the mettle or talent were already weeded out early on or were never interested in/pressured to study STEM in the first place. Your assessment of Chinese cheating falls under this bias as well and is thus invalid for evaluating Chinese creative ability, even if you can provide the research which you said supports you (hint: I doubt researchers could’ve controlled for level of parental pressure, i.e. forcing kids to stay in fields for which they are intellectually unsuited.)

    As for personality characteristics, Chinese and other East Asians lean toward meekness and timidity in relationships with a power imbalance and a lack of social familiarity (the latter factor is particularly strong and often overpowers the need for the former in triggering this disposition), such as the one that dominates your experiences – between a student and a professor. Someone mentioned that there is a serious lack of chutzpah among Chinese and I agree. It’s not hard to imagine what specific cultural factors cause this difference between them and Jews/Westerners. On the other hand, they are generally more introverted and this may not be due to culture but rather genetics. However, as prominent American researchers on the subject have pointed out, introversion does not imply less colorful, vibrant, or original thought processes. Aside from introversion, social sensitivity is intrinsically higher among Chinese as well (the existence of “face” is likely ultimately motivated by genetics), and Chinese unfamiliar with the Anglo tradition of caustic humor invariably do not react well to it. Considering your profession again, language barrier is likely another factor contributing to your impression of them being intellectually lackluster.

    Your remark implying the relative creative superiority of Japanese raises additional skepticism about your inability to overcome certain biases. It’s a common for Americans to assume the Japanese have a culture inherently better at fostering creativity than the Chinese due to the popular image of Japan in America, but I have done enough comparative research and had enough personal exchanges to conclude this assumption is definitely false. In fact, China’s much better at funding startups and creating tech unicorns than Japan. Japan’s independent VC culture hardly exists. Expect to see the next generation of innovative Asian tech companies arise in China, not Japan.

    Since it’s doubtful that anyone who’s still skeptical about me and the Chinese will take my credentials seriously, I’ll omit any in-depth discussion of my overall experiences of working with ethnic Chinese (from all of Greater China and its SEA/Western diaspora). I’ll just leave you with the conclusion that my experiences are in accord with what I have laid out here, and I do not believe I am susceptible to biases of personal observation since I always make a conscious effort to overcome them. I also rank personal observation lower than researched information in my worldview. Anyway, I think the biggest takeaway to anyone reading this is that you shouldn’t judge a blank-faced, tight-lipped Chinese (also referred to in the past as the “inscrutable Oriental”) who gives short, clichéd answers as having few thoughts that are intellectually or creatively remarkable. Or, if you are so sure that most of the Chinese whom you have met do fit this description, that their disproportionate presence in your life implies a proportionally lower number of creative minds among all Chinese relative to all Anglos.

    Read More
    • Agree: Anatoly Karlin
    • Replies: @Singh
    Exactly they really expect students paying 4-5x the fee in a foreign country putting their parents in suicidal levels of debt, to party and have 'chutzpah'

    The differences are there but are exaggerated by various factors as you mentioned।।

    Culture is tied to genetics btw

    http://www.unz.com/jman/the-behavioral-genetics-page/
    , @Daniel Chieh

    It’s a common for Americans to assume the Japanese have a culture inherently better at fostering creativity than the Chinese due to the popular image of Japan in America, but I have done enough comparative research and had enough personal exchanges to conclude this assumption is definitely false.
     
    Its hard to deny that in terms of polish, though, the amount and quantity of content produced by doujin circles steamrolls anything from China and in my opinion even exceeds American equivalents of "indie art" circles.

    There's a significant difference between scientific and artistic creativity, admittedly, but that's something worth citing. I've done research and there really doesn't seem to be much of an innovative indie game industry, for example, in China. Almost all of the blood there goes to mobile games, and while some of it is quite good, there's a definitely mercenary aspect to it. With a few exceptions, there doesn't seem to be a sense of "love" in much of the work, inasmuch as a focus on monetization.

    I'll be happy to see any contrary examples.
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  48. @inertial
    I don't understand your contempt for iPhone. It's a cluster of dozens of high technologies in one neat little package. More importantly, millions of people around the world want it.

    Soviet Union made great fighter jet engines, yet they were unable to provide their people with iPhone equivalents of the time. This was one of the major reasons for the collapse of the USSR.

    Soviet Union made great fighter jet engines, yet they were unable to provide their people with iPhone equivalents of the time. This was one of the major reasons for the collapse of the USSR.

    Soviet Union collapsed for a completely different reasons, among which deficit of some high quality consumer goods, was secondary if not tertiary factor. Soviet Union collapsed because of its multi-cultural nature with especially Middle Asia Republics being a gigantic drain and a source of instability (with Caucasus being second). The abyss separating the culture of Russia proper and of say Uzbekistan or any other place there is unbridgeable.

    I don’t understand your contempt for iPhone.

    I don’t have contempt to a small electronic device. I do, however, have a contempt for the idea and culture behind it–mindless consumerism and superficiality of highly uneducated (I don’t mean formal degrees) people. It is a material embodiment of such “phenomena” as a Face Book–a sort of mental illness of both human and economic nature. I have some smart-phone, some Samsung, I don’t even know the model, which I would have never bought if not for my beloved Alcatel flip-phone simply dying on me.

    P.S. I know what technologies go into communications. I also have a very good idea of what it takes to build a good aircraft. Do the forensic experiment and mentally model what would happen if:

    a) people go back to a regular cell-phones (basic functions, some text etc.) and no Face Book;
    b) NO commercial aviation.

    Read More
    • Replies: @inertial

    Soviet Union collapsed for a completely different reasons
     
    No, I don't mean the separation of USSR into the constituent republic. That was the end result of the economic and social breakdown, which, in turn, was brought about by moral collapse of the Soviet society. And universal worship of Western consumer goods (which you must remember) was a factor and a symptom of that collapse.

    (Incidentally, the Central Asian republics didn't want to leave the USSR until the last possible moment and in the end were de facto ejected.)

    I do, however, have a contempt for the idea and culture behind it–mindless consumerism and superficiality of highly uneducated (I don’t mean formal degrees) people.
     
    I am sorry but you don't get to decide what's "mindless consumerism" or "superficiality." Soviet rulers tried to do that and look where that brought them. People want stuff and people must get stuff, no matter what you and I think about it. If you don't have that, best fighter jets in the world won't help you.

    So good on China for being able to provide its people with consumer goods they desire. This is the foundation of a healthy economy. If China has that, with time it will be able develop anything else.
    , @inertial
    However, I do agree that measuring the "number of supercomputers" is meaningless humbug.
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  49. @inertial
    I don't understand your contempt for iPhone. It's a cluster of dozens of high technologies in one neat little package. More importantly, millions of people around the world want it.

    Soviet Union made great fighter jet engines, yet they were unable to provide their people with iPhone equivalents of the time. This was one of the major reasons for the collapse of the USSR.

    This was one of the major reasons for the collapse of the USSR.

    Perhaps exceeded only by the inability to manufacture a decent pair of blue jeans.

    Read More
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  50. @Polish Perspective
    Your post is a bit rambling (with all due respect) but it deserves attention, especially for the last two points you make.

    I'm also worried about Chinese instability. I've read the recent IMF report on financial stability and their estimate of China's true budget deficit is closer to 10% once you include off-the-books LFV(local financing vehicles) rather than the official 3%.

    The PBoC has recently come out and massively upped their previous estimate of the shadow economy, which is what your last link is about. China does have three major defence barriers. One, very high savings. Two, minimal reliance on foreign funding of their bond markets as well as minimal penetration of foreign banks. Three, strong forex reserves.

    But all three defences cannot prevent a crisis, it can only soften it substantially. The problem would then be, as Arthur Kroeber has pointed out, a Japanese stagnation but at much lower per capita GDP. The Chinese banking system is essentially lending to itself.

    Another thing which has exploded in the last 3 years especially is WMP - wealth management products - these are essentially subprime investments in many cases. Chinese retail investors can purchase them through WeChat or Alipay and massive amounts of them have done so, since they get guaranteed returns(that's a Ponzi scheme if there ever was one).

    TSF - total social financing, China's term for nominal credit growth - is still increasing substantially faster than nominal GDP. China's total debt to GDP (household, private non-financial debt as well as governmental debt) is closer to 340% if you use conservative estimates. If you use the recently updated shadow banking estimates, the figure shoots up to 650%, which is higher than almost any other industrial economy except Japan.

    I don't write this with glee. I genuinely want to see a strong China challenge the US, but there are clear and present dangers to this happening unless they get their massive credit bubble under control.

    http://www.valuewalk.com/wp-content/uploads/2017/08/china-credit-bubble-crescat-capital.png

    That image is based on BIS data, which is using much more conservative estimates than even the IMF is. If you use the IMF estimates, the Chinese bubble shoots up way higher. And as economic historians will tell you, it's not as much the absolute level that matters(though it still does) it is the speed with which it was attained. In that sense, China has a lot in common with Spain. And as I mentioned, TSF is still increasing significantly faster than nominal GDP growth, meaning they are continually leveraging their economy in an unsustainable way. This cannot continue forever, with with their Three Defences.

    P.S. This is a good commentary on the subject. It also uses more conservative official data.

    https://www.merics.org/sites/default/files/2017-10/191017_merics_ChinaMonitor_42.pdf

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  51. @Icm2
    Whenever I read opinions about the creativity of Chinese students from professors at presumably American universities, I immediately let out a jaded sigh. The vast majority of Westerners are incapable of objectively overcoming the combined effects of confirmation/selective bias and the intrinsic personality characteristics of Chinese. Let me disclose that I myself am Han Chinese by ethnicity, so feel free to dismiss my entire reply if you believe my arguments are invalid for this reason. I personally think anyone who does will forever be prone to underestimating East Asians, but hey, it keeps them mentally comfortable (or, from my perspective, complacent).

    There are simply more Chinese studying these fields due to the cultural reasons you mentioned, so it should be unsurprising that the proportion you encounter who appear uninspired is higher than for other groups. Accordingly, you are more likely to encounter white American women interested in AI who have the "creative spark" simply because they are the cream of the crop; the ones who lacked the mettle or talent were already weeded out early on or were never interested in/pressured to study STEM in the first place. Your assessment of Chinese cheating falls under this bias as well and is thus invalid for evaluating Chinese creative ability, even if you can provide the research which you said supports you (hint: I doubt researchers could've controlled for level of parental pressure, i.e. forcing kids to stay in fields for which they are intellectually unsuited.)

    As for personality characteristics, Chinese and other East Asians lean toward meekness and timidity in relationships with a power imbalance and a lack of social familiarity (the latter factor is particularly strong and often overpowers the need for the former in triggering this disposition), such as the one that dominates your experiences - between a student and a professor. Someone mentioned that there is a serious lack of chutzpah among Chinese and I agree. It's not hard to imagine what specific cultural factors cause this difference between them and Jews/Westerners. On the other hand, they are generally more introverted and this may not be due to culture but rather genetics. However, as prominent American researchers on the subject have pointed out, introversion does not imply less colorful, vibrant, or original thought processes. Aside from introversion, social sensitivity is intrinsically higher among Chinese as well (the existence of "face" is likely ultimately motivated by genetics), and Chinese unfamiliar with the Anglo tradition of caustic humor invariably do not react well to it. Considering your profession again, language barrier is likely another factor contributing to your impression of them being intellectually lackluster.

    Your remark implying the relative creative superiority of Japanese raises additional skepticism about your inability to overcome certain biases. It's a common for Americans to assume the Japanese have a culture inherently better at fostering creativity than the Chinese due to the popular image of Japan in America, but I have done enough comparative research and had enough personal exchanges to conclude this assumption is definitely false. In fact, China's much better at funding startups and creating tech unicorns than Japan. Japan's independent VC culture hardly exists. Expect to see the next generation of innovative Asian tech companies arise in China, not Japan.

    Since it's doubtful that anyone who's still skeptical about me and the Chinese will take my credentials seriously, I'll omit any in-depth discussion of my overall experiences of working with ethnic Chinese (from all of Greater China and its SEA/Western diaspora). I'll just leave you with the conclusion that my experiences are in accord with what I have laid out here, and I do not believe I am susceptible to biases of personal observation since I always make a conscious effort to overcome them. I also rank personal observation lower than researched information in my worldview. Anyway, I think the biggest takeaway to anyone reading this is that you shouldn't judge a blank-faced, tight-lipped Chinese (also referred to in the past as the "inscrutable Oriental") who gives short, clichéd answers as having few thoughts that are intellectually or creatively remarkable. Or, if you are so sure that most of the Chinese whom you have met do fit this description, that their disproportionate presence in your life implies a proportionally lower number of creative minds among all Chinese relative to all Anglos.

    Exactly they really expect students paying 4-5x the fee in a foreign country putting their parents in suicidal levels of debt, to party and have ‘chutzpah’

    The differences are there but are exaggerated by various factors as you mentioned।।

    Culture is tied to genetics btw

    http://www.unz.com/jman/the-behavioral-genetics-page/

    Read More
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  52. @Andrei Martyanov

    Tell me about India’s military “negotiating” practices. Please expand on it.
     
    1. As a simple courtesy goes, I would have been more impressed with you explaining first from what ass did you pull this preposterous made up number of 40 hours? This fact alone already puts you into the category of trolls with no actual knowledge of the subject matter and who deliberately lie and BS to make their completely false point.

    2. India's negotiating practice was and is known for its classic erratic behavior of trying penny pinch by "wearing down" negotiating partners, as Dassault learned the hard way. I will go no further with that since I don't think you are worth any explaining on any serious matters.

    This is how Indians are on everything, not just defense goods.

    We have a joint-venture company in India. We own 28% of the equity, and the Indians license our world-beating automatic voltage regulator technology.

    Occasionally there are sales inquiries from Indian companies for products not yet made by our Indian partners (our Indian company makes only our automatic voltage regulator, we make many more things in America).

    One recent customer asked me if I would please submit a costed bill of materials so they could ensure I was not making “too much profit”.

    Naturally I told them to go pound sand. My Indian partners were shocked.

    Read More
    • Replies: @Andrei Martyanov

    One recent customer asked me if I would please submit a costed bill of materials so they could ensure I was not making “too much profit”.
     
    Very much sums it up. They also love to play many customers against each-other. Then, of course, those sudden "additional" requirements etc. Fact is, even technology transfer, which might be agreed upon, will not necessarily mean that they will be able to manufacture.
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  53. @Thorfinnsson
    This is how Indians are on everything, not just defense goods.

    We have a joint-venture company in India. We own 28% of the equity, and the Indians license our world-beating automatic voltage regulator technology.

    Occasionally there are sales inquiries from Indian companies for products not yet made by our Indian partners (our Indian company makes only our automatic voltage regulator, we make many more things in America).

    One recent customer asked me if I would please submit a costed bill of materials so they could ensure I was not making "too much profit".

    Naturally I told them to go pound sand. My Indian partners were shocked.

    One recent customer asked me if I would please submit a costed bill of materials so they could ensure I was not making “too much profit”.

    Very much sums it up. They also love to play many customers against each-other. Then, of course, those sudden “additional” requirements etc. Fact is, even technology transfer, which might be agreed upon, will not necessarily mean that they will be able to manufacture.

    Read More
    • Replies: @Thorfinnsson
    The manufacture of our products is easy enough--it's just electronics assembly. Quality control is very important in PCB production and wire harness manufacture, and we've discovered that many Indian firms do this to world standards. Sheet metal is a pain in the ass, but it's a pain in the ass in any country (initial orders often have issues, have to find the right supplier, powder coating often a problem, lead times a chronic issue, etc.).

    There were, however, some surprises. We've found that transformer manufacturing in India is seriously deficient, which is quite surprising as transformer manufacturing is not exactly jet engine manufacturing.

    What is actually complex about our products is the firmware. There's a serious deficiency of engineering talent in India. As far as I can tell there are two reasons for this:

    1 - A large fraction of India's top talent emigrates in each generation, and India is too early in its development to benefit from diaspora returning with Western knowledge and capital (China now has overseas Chinese returning--they call them "sea turtles")

    2 - Of the top tier talent that remains in India, they get sucked up by large MNCs, the Indian state, and the few top tier Indian corporations (e.g. Larsen & Tubro, bizarrely formed by Danish emigrants to India in the 1930s)

    The Indian government actively exacerbates the first problem. India adamantly insists that advanced countries allow Indians to emigrate there, and in trade negotiations frequently tries to make free movement of labor part of any agreement. Even when Indians were negotiating with the United Kingdom for independence the Indian negotiators insisted that Indians should have the right to move to the UK after independence.

    And it's not just the government. If you ask Indians to compare India and America, they will without hesitation state that America is superior and India is awful. Now this is objectively true as regards to material development, but it's still shocking to hear people openly denigrate their own country like that. I recognize that America does not lead the world in all aspects and indeed has severe problems, but I am hesitant to denigrate my country in the presence of foreigners.

    The fact that business in India is done in English will give them a leg up in the future however. This means diaspora Indians who only speak English will be able to return to India in the future once living standards aren't appalling. I think we'll see many diaspora Indians moving to India for business opportunities after 2030 or so.
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  54. @inertial
    Megan McArdle recently had a good post about the dangers of using hard metrics to evaluate performance in soft fields like education and health care. No matter what the metrics are people learn to game them. This applies to science and especially Chinese science. I worked with Chinese and I know that they are world champions in gaming "objective" metrics.

    For example, increasing share of high-impact academic publications sounds impressive but I would like to take a closer look at the citations. Do Chinese increase their citation counts by citing each other incessantly? Worth checking out.

    “I worked with Chinese and I know that they are world champions in gaming “objective” metrics.”

    Sounded like Clinton supporters whinging about Trump gaming the electoral colleges.

    Do you think you are smarter than the offshoot of Nature Journal about the quality of publications?

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  55. @Icm2
    Whenever I read opinions about the creativity of Chinese students from professors at presumably American universities, I immediately let out a jaded sigh. The vast majority of Westerners are incapable of objectively overcoming the combined effects of confirmation/selective bias and the intrinsic personality characteristics of Chinese. Let me disclose that I myself am Han Chinese by ethnicity, so feel free to dismiss my entire reply if you believe my arguments are invalid for this reason. I personally think anyone who does will forever be prone to underestimating East Asians, but hey, it keeps them mentally comfortable (or, from my perspective, complacent).

    There are simply more Chinese studying these fields due to the cultural reasons you mentioned, so it should be unsurprising that the proportion you encounter who appear uninspired is higher than for other groups. Accordingly, you are more likely to encounter white American women interested in AI who have the "creative spark" simply because they are the cream of the crop; the ones who lacked the mettle or talent were already weeded out early on or were never interested in/pressured to study STEM in the first place. Your assessment of Chinese cheating falls under this bias as well and is thus invalid for evaluating Chinese creative ability, even if you can provide the research which you said supports you (hint: I doubt researchers could've controlled for level of parental pressure, i.e. forcing kids to stay in fields for which they are intellectually unsuited.)

    As for personality characteristics, Chinese and other East Asians lean toward meekness and timidity in relationships with a power imbalance and a lack of social familiarity (the latter factor is particularly strong and often overpowers the need for the former in triggering this disposition), such as the one that dominates your experiences - between a student and a professor. Someone mentioned that there is a serious lack of chutzpah among Chinese and I agree. It's not hard to imagine what specific cultural factors cause this difference between them and Jews/Westerners. On the other hand, they are generally more introverted and this may not be due to culture but rather genetics. However, as prominent American researchers on the subject have pointed out, introversion does not imply less colorful, vibrant, or original thought processes. Aside from introversion, social sensitivity is intrinsically higher among Chinese as well (the existence of "face" is likely ultimately motivated by genetics), and Chinese unfamiliar with the Anglo tradition of caustic humor invariably do not react well to it. Considering your profession again, language barrier is likely another factor contributing to your impression of them being intellectually lackluster.

    Your remark implying the relative creative superiority of Japanese raises additional skepticism about your inability to overcome certain biases. It's a common for Americans to assume the Japanese have a culture inherently better at fostering creativity than the Chinese due to the popular image of Japan in America, but I have done enough comparative research and had enough personal exchanges to conclude this assumption is definitely false. In fact, China's much better at funding startups and creating tech unicorns than Japan. Japan's independent VC culture hardly exists. Expect to see the next generation of innovative Asian tech companies arise in China, not Japan.

    Since it's doubtful that anyone who's still skeptical about me and the Chinese will take my credentials seriously, I'll omit any in-depth discussion of my overall experiences of working with ethnic Chinese (from all of Greater China and its SEA/Western diaspora). I'll just leave you with the conclusion that my experiences are in accord with what I have laid out here, and I do not believe I am susceptible to biases of personal observation since I always make a conscious effort to overcome them. I also rank personal observation lower than researched information in my worldview. Anyway, I think the biggest takeaway to anyone reading this is that you shouldn't judge a blank-faced, tight-lipped Chinese (also referred to in the past as the "inscrutable Oriental") who gives short, clichéd answers as having few thoughts that are intellectually or creatively remarkable. Or, if you are so sure that most of the Chinese whom you have met do fit this description, that their disproportionate presence in your life implies a proportionally lower number of creative minds among all Chinese relative to all Anglos.

    It’s a common for Americans to assume the Japanese have a culture inherently better at fostering creativity than the Chinese due to the popular image of Japan in America, but I have done enough comparative research and had enough personal exchanges to conclude this assumption is definitely false.

    Its hard to deny that in terms of polish, though, the amount and quantity of content produced by doujin circles steamrolls anything from China and in my opinion even exceeds American equivalents of “indie art” circles.

    There’s a significant difference between scientific and artistic creativity, admittedly, but that’s something worth citing. I’ve done research and there really doesn’t seem to be much of an innovative indie game industry, for example, in China. Almost all of the blood there goes to mobile games, and while some of it is quite good, there’s a definitely mercenary aspect to it. With a few exceptions, there doesn’t seem to be a sense of “love” in much of the work, inasmuch as a focus on monetization.

    I’ll be happy to see any contrary examples.

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    • Replies: @Icm2
    The predominance of mobile games in China has nothing to do with lack of creativity but rather the technological leapfrog effect. Chinese game developers reach a far greater audience and earn more revenue by developing mobile games, not PC or console ones. It also helps that mobile games based around the microtransaction revenue model require much less upfront investment to produce.

    As for their indie art output, it seems you are not familiar enough with this scene in China. Homegrown webnovels, webcomics, and animation have enormous followings, and the quality of some of their recent output is not significantly far behind the standard of Japanese works.

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  56. In China the mere fact that by policy there are only about 9.527% university graduates means that the minimum IQ for local university admission is about 126 and about 146 for STEM courses. Those oversea Chinese university students are mostly either children of well off parents having a long oversea holidays or those that have IQ less than the above stated amount and cannot get into their local universities for courses of their choices and they have to spend houndred of thousand dollars to get into oversea universities. An IQ of 120 with proficency in English will have no problem getting into oversea STEM courses, 110 for business courses, or 103 for the easier courses. Thus the IQ profile of the Chinese oversea students is mostly a bell curve with truncated upper and lower tails.

    Furthermore, even USNews has credited that China’s Tsinghua Uni as the “Best Global Universities for Computer Science and Engineering”,

    https://www.usnews.com/education/best-global-universities/computer-science

    https://www.usnews.com/education/best-global-universities/search?region=&subject=engineering&name=

    and China has another two more universities in the top ten for both categories. Thus they really do not have to go oversea to better themselves.

    Beside, in a country where normal residents cannot move to another districts without permission, do you think that the brightest students are allowed to leave the country?? Thus the US academics are looking at a bias sample of Chinese students.

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    • Replies: @TT
    My China friends are always telling me the Top students are groomed in China, 2nd grade goes to Ivy League, 3rd grade end up in Singapore NUS / NTU or Asia uni. This is also what I heard from China undergraduate directly too. Did anyone know if this is true?
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  57. @Andrei Martyanov

    They have the world’s biggest and fastest growing auto market right there. Why on earth would they compete
     
    I didn't say anything about competition. I merely pointed out that they will not have a good car by 2025, be it for external or internal market--doesn't matter. And they will not. Everything car-wise (that is commercial passenger vehicles) they produced so far is beyond even shoddy quality and reliability of late 2000-s Russian-made cars many of which were viewed with scorn. I saw their cars, they are pretty much along the lines of their aircraft.

    I can only think of two countries that make genuinely good cars. Evidently it isn’t an important hurdle to clear, from a broader point of view.

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    • Replies: @reiner Tor
    I hope you didn’t include Germany in those two countries, because it’s lost the ability. The South Koreans are not there just yet (at least at the higher end), so it must be Japan and Sweden, the latter (Volvo) with Chinese ownership.
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  58. @Andrei Martyanov

    They have the world’s biggest and fastest growing auto market right there. Why on earth would they compete
     
    I didn't say anything about competition. I merely pointed out that they will not have a good car by 2025, be it for external or internal market--doesn't matter. And they will not. Everything car-wise (that is commercial passenger vehicles) they produced so far is beyond even shoddy quality and reliability of late 2000-s Russian-made cars many of which were viewed with scorn. I saw their cars, they are pretty much along the lines of their aircraft.

    I didn’t say anything about competition. I merely pointed out that they will not have a good car by 2025, be it for external or internal market–doesn’t matter. And they will not. Everything car-wise (that is commercial passenger vehicles) they produced so far is beyond even shoddy quality and reliability of late 2000-s Russian-made cars many of which were viewed with scorn. I saw their cars, they are pretty much along the lines of their aircraft.

    But, they may be getting there indirectly.

    China’s Geely Automobile bought Volvo from Ford in 2010 (the largest overseas acquisition by a Chinese automaker) with 2017 turning out to be a record sales year for the Volvo brand. Also, in the recently released 2017 J D Power UK Vehicle Dependability Study, Volvo came out top (1st out of 27) with BMW last (27th out of 27) and Audi next to last. Out of interest, the most faulty models were the Audi A4, A5, A6, Q3 and Q5, and the BMW 3 series and 4 series (with the Mercedes A class were right there with them).

    And there could be some déjà vu here.

    I can remember the received opinion in 1970′s UK that the Japanese were incapable of making British quality cars, because they couldn’t understand the finer points of automotive design (never would cure under steer).

    Also, there’s the high predictability for national economic development of PISA test scores (international OECD testing of 15 year olds in maths, reading and science skills). In the latest 2015 results NE Asia was coming out top (again) and the US was behind Portugal, although it was managing to beat Israel (right on the lowest ranking).

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  59. I find this all funny: in my view, the Chinese simply are unstoppable. Manufacturing? Pooh… They will have flying saucers at the time everybody here is still be rambling about this or that engine.

    Han Chinese are 95% of China & they will not experience collapse that most Western world is slated for in next few decades.

    Traits of Chinese people & civilization are such that they are in most crucial areas fit for the post-modern functional technological world. In short, they are Jews without humor, but with ethno-cultural traits & position that are perfectly fitted for 21st century.

    In all likelihood, they will never dominate in areas of high & popular culture, as well in some other fields. But, forget about everything else (copycats, not creative,..).

    In next 20-40 years (only WWW III could stop them-and even this is dubious), China will absolutely dominate all areas of technological, military, economic & scientific power. And who disagrees, well- they’ll simply eat him:

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    • Replies: @Andrei Martyanov

    I find this all funny: in my view, the Chinese simply are unstoppable. Manufacturing? Pooh… They will have flying saucers at the time everybody here is still be rambling about this or that engine.
     
    No, they will not. All their space programs: from rocketry to even BeiDou GPS are totally derivative from Soviet/Russian and European (GALILEO) and are late and sub-par. But the question is not even this: the MAIN question for China is--will PLAN be able to provide for China, who is still largely dependent on SLOC (Shipping Lanes Of Communications) and even with One Belt, One Road coming to fruition she will remain dependent on it, a reliable and sustainable Sea Control required for such a trade. The answer is unequivocal NO. Unless the United States goes down in flames tomorrow and world ocean suddenly is vacated for taking Chinese Navy will remain generation or two behind both technologically and operationally behind US Navy, even if to consider US Navy's many very real problems. China is a minor league here, especially when one takes a look at the world-class and massive US Navy's submarine force, which can decimate largely sub-par Chinese Navy if need be beyond first island chain. I was asked some time ago about China and Japan realistically going at it because of the islands dispute--I repeat my answer: Japan's first class submarine force will simply sink any force PLAN will decide to deploy beyond this first island chain.

    Now comes this very interesting question: how difficult it is to build a world-class navy? I will say just that: on several dozens orders of magnitude more complex than manufacture some shitty smart-phone or assemble SONY TV set. So, China is not only stoppable but for now she still didn't produce any tangible strategic, operational or technological achievement where it matters which would give reasons to state otherwise. But there is more to this issue, which unfolds as we speak--take Russia out of Chinese equation and anyone in the US with a half-decent brain would know what to do with China. Another matter that there are no such people in US anymore and China should count her blessings for having Russia reliably covering her strategic rear. Yet, even with that--I would love to hear anyone's (especially from "specialists" in smart-phones) how long would it take for US Navy to lock up PLAN in its bases. And this is just one of very many factors which must be considered when stating on how "unstoppable" are Chinese.
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  60. @5371
    I can only think of two countries that make genuinely good cars. Evidently it isn't an important hurdle to clear, from a broader point of view.

    I hope you didn’t include Germany in those two countries, because it’s lost the ability. The South Koreans are not there just yet (at least at the higher end), so it must be Japan and Sweden, the latter (Volvo) with Chinese ownership.

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    • Replies: @5371
    Tough crowd! Mercedes certainly aren't at their best at the moment, it's true.
    , @Thorfinnsson
    Both your comment and 5371's are silly.

    You can't even buy a bad car anymore. As recently as 20 years ago the stuff Detroit turned out was awful with some exceptions (Ford and Oldsmobile made good cars in the 90s). And Korean cars were an absolute joke until just 10 years ago.

    The German luxury automakers have fallen in quality rankings because these quality problems don't matter that much anymore. Certainly it's not impacting their sales figures.

    Automobiles used to frequently suffer from serious mechanical problems.

    These days just about any car you buy is good for 100,000 miles with little more maintenance than oil changes and brake pad replacement. If you wanted a quality car in the 1980s you had buy a Volvo or a Japanese car. I believe Mercedes had a reputation for quality in those days as well, but I've never driven an 80s Benz.

    And quality is set to increase even further with electrification. No engine or transmission. Mechanical maintenance down to brakes and suspension components only.

    The real problem with cars these days is that regulations have turned them into boring appliances. You now have to spend a lot of money to get an interesting car, with some exceptions from Detroit (muscle/pony car redux) and the Mazda Miata (effeminate, but great track car).
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  61. All this talk about this or that type of car (or whatever) is unimportant. What counts is:

    * China is 95% Han. They can even lose 30% of their territory (which will not happen) & still be the biggest truly settled piece of earth worth living on.

    * they are ethnic nationalists & will remain so as the species homo sapiens sapiens is still around

    * they will not let blacks and Muslims in. What marginal Muslim minorities they have, Uyghurs etc.- they’ll control them. This country will remain Han- forever (if “forever” has any rational meaning)

    * they don’t care & will not allow feminism, multiculturalism, liberalism & other faggot ideologies in.

    * they are optimists & believe that future belongs to them. They are not tired as, say, Europe is: http://www.spiegel.de/international/europe/interview-with-historian-walter-laqueur-on-the-decline-of-europe-a-912837.html The Chinese have the will to live & expand- but only regionally, as classic expansion goes.

    * they can lose 400 million people & survive. No need to further comment on this.

    * they are not, civilizationally, creative as Europeans had been. They don’t have creative titans like Plato, Michelangelo, Newton or Gauss. But, they need not be; the post-modern world is not for giants. They have sufficiently great minds like this one (I know he’s “American”, but clearly, this is not what this all is about): https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Terence_Tao

    *they will never be of much importance in films, music, literature.. or any popular & high culture. So what?

    Whoever has this kind of stuff, combined, has a great future for him.

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    • Replies: @Miro23
    You missed the point that China doesn't have a 2% minority of Jewish activists.

    Jews don't run the Chinese Central Bank or Treasury, they don't own the Chinese media, they aren't there to encourage mass immigration into China or push LGBT issues, and China doesn't get the Chinese Guilt narrative or have to spend $ Trillions of Chinese wealth on Middle East wars - fought by Chinese troops.

    Also the Chinese politicians aren't obliged to give standing ovations to Netanyahu in gratitude.
    , @Anonymous
    I agree with all of this except that they will not have any importance in film, literature, and culture.

    Japan has had an enormous cultural affect on the West and so has Korea. Why would China not also have an impact? If you are saying they will not have as good music as America and the UK, that I believe.

    But they will absolutely will have a huge cultural impact as they progress in their own way. China already has a cultural impact from its past accomplishments, I think this will go up over time.

    I think the key point you made is that Chinese youth are optimists. They see that they can become millionaires if they just apply themselves. Millenials in America are a total joke. They are narcissists and they will get their lunch eaten by the Chinese.
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  62. Has anyone pointed out that a disproportionate amount of STEM work in the US is done by Chinese Americans? Chinese Americans are about 1.5 to 1.6 percent of the American population, but surely must contribute significantly more than that to American STEM.

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    • Agree: Andrei Martyanov
    • Replies: @Anonymous
    No one doubts it. Problem is, even in STEM most of the work is pure drudgery that requires no creativity.
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  63. @reiner Tor
    I hope you didn’t include Germany in those two countries, because it’s lost the ability. The South Koreans are not there just yet (at least at the higher end), so it must be Japan and Sweden, the latter (Volvo) with Chinese ownership.

    Tough crowd! Mercedes certainly aren’t at their best at the moment, it’s true.

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  64. @Bardon Kaldian
    All this talk about this or that type of car (or whatever) is unimportant. What counts is:

    * China is 95% Han. They can even lose 30% of their territory (which will not happen) & still be the biggest truly settled piece of earth worth living on.

    * they are ethnic nationalists & will remain so as the species homo sapiens sapiens is still around

    * they will not let blacks and Muslims in. What marginal Muslim minorities they have, Uyghurs etc.- they'll control them. This country will remain Han- forever (if "forever" has any rational meaning)

    * they don't care & will not allow feminism, multiculturalism, liberalism & other faggot ideologies in.

    * they are optimists & believe that future belongs to them. They are not tired as, say, Europe is: http://www.spiegel.de/international/europe/interview-with-historian-walter-laqueur-on-the-decline-of-europe-a-912837.html The Chinese have the will to live & expand- but only regionally, as classic expansion goes.

    * they can lose 400 million people & survive. No need to further comment on this.

    * they are not, civilizationally, creative as Europeans had been. They don't have creative titans like Plato, Michelangelo, Newton or Gauss. But, they need not be; the post-modern world is not for giants. They have sufficiently great minds like this one (I know he's "American", but clearly, this is not what this all is about): https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Terence_Tao

    *they will never be of much importance in films, music, literature.. or any popular & high culture. So what?

    Whoever has this kind of stuff, combined, has a great future for him.

    You missed the point that China doesn’t have a 2% minority of Jewish activists.

    Jews don’t run the Chinese Central Bank or Treasury, they don’t own the Chinese media, they aren’t there to encourage mass immigration into China or push LGBT issues, and China doesn’t get the Chinese Guilt narrative or have to spend $ Trillions of Chinese wealth on Middle East wars – fought by Chinese troops.

    Also the Chinese politicians aren’t obliged to give standing ovations to Netanyahu in gratitude.

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    • Replies: @Bardon Kaldian
    This Jewish obsession is silly. Jews are marginal in UK, Germany, Italy, Switzerland, Sweden etc. Yet, these countries are on the safe downward spiral. It is something rotten in the West as such, and Jews are, in public discourse, just a useful scapegoat, as they have been in past 1000 or so years- and nothing more.
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  65. @Andrei Martyanov

    One recent customer asked me if I would please submit a costed bill of materials so they could ensure I was not making “too much profit”.
     
    Very much sums it up. They also love to play many customers against each-other. Then, of course, those sudden "additional" requirements etc. Fact is, even technology transfer, which might be agreed upon, will not necessarily mean that they will be able to manufacture.

    The manufacture of our products is easy enough–it’s just electronics assembly. Quality control is very important in PCB production and wire harness manufacture, and we’ve discovered that many Indian firms do this to world standards. Sheet metal is a pain in the ass, but it’s a pain in the ass in any country (initial orders often have issues, have to find the right supplier, powder coating often a problem, lead times a chronic issue, etc.).

    There were, however, some surprises. We’ve found that transformer manufacturing in India is seriously deficient, which is quite surprising as transformer manufacturing is not exactly jet engine manufacturing.

    What is actually complex about our products is the firmware. There’s a serious deficiency of engineering talent in India. As far as I can tell there are two reasons for this:

    1 – A large fraction of India’s top talent emigrates in each generation, and India is too early in its development to benefit from diaspora returning with Western knowledge and capital (China now has overseas Chinese returning–they call them “sea turtles”)

    2 – Of the top tier talent that remains in India, they get sucked up by large MNCs, the Indian state, and the few top tier Indian corporations (e.g. Larsen & Tubro, bizarrely formed by Danish emigrants to India in the 1930s)

    The Indian government actively exacerbates the first problem. India adamantly insists that advanced countries allow Indians to emigrate there, and in trade negotiations frequently tries to make free movement of labor part of any agreement. Even when Indians were negotiating with the United Kingdom for independence the Indian negotiators insisted that Indians should have the right to move to the UK after independence.

    And it’s not just the government. If you ask Indians to compare India and America, they will without hesitation state that America is superior and India is awful. Now this is objectively true as regards to material development, but it’s still shocking to hear people openly denigrate their own country like that. I recognize that America does not lead the world in all aspects and indeed has severe problems, but I am hesitant to denigrate my country in the presence of foreigners.

    The fact that business in India is done in English will give them a leg up in the future however. This means diaspora Indians who only speak English will be able to return to India in the future once living standards aren’t appalling. I think we’ll see many diaspora Indians moving to India for business opportunities after 2030 or so.

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  66. @Andrei Martyanov

    That literally doesn’t mean anything.
     
    Sure, for Wall-Street "educated" economists it doesn't. But it does. It is, however, very difficult to explain to people who use smart-phone "argument" that, as an example< Russia does produce (manufactures) own processors while China merely packs someone's "crystals" into the box. People who have a clue they know implications. But since your horizons are limited by smart-phones, here is a Russian one:

    https://yotaphone.com/gb-en/

    It is impossible to explain to new generation of people who never dealt with modern industry, such as you, what a massive difference in technological cycle prowess between producing a jet engine and of some shitty smart-phone is. I'll give you one hint--Chinese metallurgy is not a world-class and that is why their aircraft, submarines and other things of this nature are very sub-par.

    Excerpt from a review of the Yoda-phone:

    YotaPhone 2 Review: More Than a Gimmick, Less Than a Good Phone
    … I ran into many issues with the YotaPhone that I just didn’t have with other phones—things I don’t even usually need to test because I just take them for granted.
    … The absolute most annoying one was the 3.5mm headphone jack. … without fail, the YotaPhone would lose connection with my earbuds and my music would pause. After pressing play, since my headphones were very much still attached, the music would start playing out loud for all to hear

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    • Replies: @Andrei Martyanov

    Excerpt from a review of the Yoda-phone:
     
    Good. I don't care about Yota-phone, I merely pointed out that Russia also has smart-phone. China manufactures cars--they suck, but China still makes them. Is this a good illustration of point?
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  67. @reiner Tor
    I hope you didn’t include Germany in those two countries, because it’s lost the ability. The South Koreans are not there just yet (at least at the higher end), so it must be Japan and Sweden, the latter (Volvo) with Chinese ownership.

    Both your comment and 5371′s are silly.

    You can’t even buy a bad car anymore. As recently as 20 years ago the stuff Detroit turned out was awful with some exceptions (Ford and Oldsmobile made good cars in the 90s). And Korean cars were an absolute joke until just 10 years ago.

    The German luxury automakers have fallen in quality rankings because these quality problems don’t matter that much anymore. Certainly it’s not impacting their sales figures.

    Automobiles used to frequently suffer from serious mechanical problems.

    These days just about any car you buy is good for 100,000 miles with little more maintenance than oil changes and brake pad replacement. If you wanted a quality car in the 1980s you had buy a Volvo or a Japanese car. I believe Mercedes had a reputation for quality in those days as well, but I’ve never driven an 80s Benz.

    And quality is set to increase even further with electrification. No engine or transmission. Mechanical maintenance down to brakes and suspension components only.

    The real problem with cars these days is that regulations have turned them into boring appliances. You now have to spend a lot of money to get an interesting car, with some exceptions from Detroit (muscle/pony car redux) and the Mazda Miata (effeminate, but great track car).

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    • Replies: @reiner Tor

    any car you buy is good for 100,000 miles with little more maintenance than oil changes and brake pad replacement
     
    My brother has a Volkswagen Passat wagon. It’s not yet three years old. It already had a number of issues which were repaired under warranty. Fortunately for him it’s a company car, so he’ll be able to expense maintenance costs once warranty expires (better yet, it’ll get replaced), but still. I know a guy with similar problems with a Mercedes. Yes, most people don’t have these problems, but it’s still prevalent enough that I personally know people with such problems, which means these are not exactly meaningless numbers.

    Oh, and the Diesel engines they peddled here in Europe are awful in quality, after a few years they tend to break down (but are now very powerful!), and BMW managed to produce an engine (I think the two-liter one) which is almost 200 hp (not bad for a two-liter engine with a lot of torque), but occasionally burns down on the highway. Like, the driver stops because of a warning message and smoke coming from under the hood, is unable to stop the engine, people get out of the car, and two minutes later it goes up in flames. And it had regular maintenance at official BMW service centers.

    , @Miro23

    The German luxury automakers have fallen in quality rankings because these quality problems don’t matter that much anymore. Certainly it’s not impacting their sales figures.
     
    This is a weird statement: "Quality problems don't matter that much anymore".

    I have a German car who's manufacturer is at the bottom of the J D Power UK Vehicle Dependability rankings, and it has had endless parts failures, even having to have the engine removed at one point to fix a "known fault" (balancer shaft). Would I buy anything from that manufacturer again - Never.

    And, my neighbour has the same trouble with another bottom ranked J D Power manufacturer (new British luxury cross country vehicle), which is constantly in the garage for repairs. He thought he was buying a quality product.

    It may not impact their sales figures now, but it will do when their reputations are gone.
    , @5371
    [These days just about any car you buy is good for 100,000 miles with little more maintenance than oil changes and brake pad replacement]

    Nonsense.

    [And quality is set to increase even further with electrification]

    Which is why Tesla has such a sterling record. Oh, wait!
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  68. @Thorfinnsson
    Both your comment and 5371's are silly.

    You can't even buy a bad car anymore. As recently as 20 years ago the stuff Detroit turned out was awful with some exceptions (Ford and Oldsmobile made good cars in the 90s). And Korean cars were an absolute joke until just 10 years ago.

    The German luxury automakers have fallen in quality rankings because these quality problems don't matter that much anymore. Certainly it's not impacting their sales figures.

    Automobiles used to frequently suffer from serious mechanical problems.

    These days just about any car you buy is good for 100,000 miles with little more maintenance than oil changes and brake pad replacement. If you wanted a quality car in the 1980s you had buy a Volvo or a Japanese car. I believe Mercedes had a reputation for quality in those days as well, but I've never driven an 80s Benz.

    And quality is set to increase even further with electrification. No engine or transmission. Mechanical maintenance down to brakes and suspension components only.

    The real problem with cars these days is that regulations have turned them into boring appliances. You now have to spend a lot of money to get an interesting car, with some exceptions from Detroit (muscle/pony car redux) and the Mazda Miata (effeminate, but great track car).

    any car you buy is good for 100,000 miles with little more maintenance than oil changes and brake pad replacement

    My brother has a Volkswagen Passat wagon. It’s not yet three years old. It already had a number of issues which were repaired under warranty. Fortunately for him it’s a company car, so he’ll be able to expense maintenance costs once warranty expires (better yet, it’ll get replaced), but still. I know a guy with similar problems with a Mercedes. Yes, most people don’t have these problems, but it’s still prevalent enough that I personally know people with such problems, which means these are not exactly meaningless numbers.

    Oh, and the Diesel engines they peddled here in Europe are awful in quality, after a few years they tend to break down (but are now very powerful!), and BMW managed to produce an engine (I think the two-liter one) which is almost 200 hp (not bad for a two-liter engine with a lot of torque), but occasionally burns down on the highway. Like, the driver stops because of a warning message and smoke coming from under the hood, is unable to stop the engine, people get out of the car, and two minutes later it goes up in flames. And it had regular maintenance at official BMW service centers.

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    • Replies: @reiner Tor
    My brother has a diesel, too, and he uses it mostly on the highway for long distances, which should be ideal for a diesel. (Though all his problems were minor, it’s annoying to have to have it repaired.)
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  69. @Thorfinnsson
    Both your comment and 5371's are silly.

    You can't even buy a bad car anymore. As recently as 20 years ago the stuff Detroit turned out was awful with some exceptions (Ford and Oldsmobile made good cars in the 90s). And Korean cars were an absolute joke until just 10 years ago.

    The German luxury automakers have fallen in quality rankings because these quality problems don't matter that much anymore. Certainly it's not impacting their sales figures.

    Automobiles used to frequently suffer from serious mechanical problems.

    These days just about any car you buy is good for 100,000 miles with little more maintenance than oil changes and brake pad replacement. If you wanted a quality car in the 1980s you had buy a Volvo or a Japanese car. I believe Mercedes had a reputation for quality in those days as well, but I've never driven an 80s Benz.

    And quality is set to increase even further with electrification. No engine or transmission. Mechanical maintenance down to brakes and suspension components only.

    The real problem with cars these days is that regulations have turned them into boring appliances. You now have to spend a lot of money to get an interesting car, with some exceptions from Detroit (muscle/pony car redux) and the Mazda Miata (effeminate, but great track car).

    The German luxury automakers have fallen in quality rankings because these quality problems don’t matter that much anymore. Certainly it’s not impacting their sales figures.

    This is a weird statement: “Quality problems don’t matter that much anymore”.

    I have a German car who’s manufacturer is at the bottom of the J D Power UK Vehicle Dependability rankings, and it has had endless parts failures, even having to have the engine removed at one point to fix a “known fault” (balancer shaft). Would I buy anything from that manufacturer again – Never.

    And, my neighbour has the same trouble with another bottom ranked J D Power manufacturer (new British luxury cross country vehicle), which is constantly in the garage for repairs. He thought he was buying a quality product.

    It may not impact their sales figures now, but it will do when their reputations are gone.

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    • Agree: reiner Tor
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  70. @reiner Tor

    any car you buy is good for 100,000 miles with little more maintenance than oil changes and brake pad replacement
     
    My brother has a Volkswagen Passat wagon. It’s not yet three years old. It already had a number of issues which were repaired under warranty. Fortunately for him it’s a company car, so he’ll be able to expense maintenance costs once warranty expires (better yet, it’ll get replaced), but still. I know a guy with similar problems with a Mercedes. Yes, most people don’t have these problems, but it’s still prevalent enough that I personally know people with such problems, which means these are not exactly meaningless numbers.

    Oh, and the Diesel engines they peddled here in Europe are awful in quality, after a few years they tend to break down (but are now very powerful!), and BMW managed to produce an engine (I think the two-liter one) which is almost 200 hp (not bad for a two-liter engine with a lot of torque), but occasionally burns down on the highway. Like, the driver stops because of a warning message and smoke coming from under the hood, is unable to stop the engine, people get out of the car, and two minutes later it goes up in flames. And it had regular maintenance at official BMW service centers.

    My brother has a diesel, too, and he uses it mostly on the highway for long distances, which should be ideal for a diesel. (Though all his problems were minor, it’s annoying to have to have it repaired.)

    Read More
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  71. @Miro23
    You missed the point that China doesn't have a 2% minority of Jewish activists.

    Jews don't run the Chinese Central Bank or Treasury, they don't own the Chinese media, they aren't there to encourage mass immigration into China or push LGBT issues, and China doesn't get the Chinese Guilt narrative or have to spend $ Trillions of Chinese wealth on Middle East wars - fought by Chinese troops.

    Also the Chinese politicians aren't obliged to give standing ovations to Netanyahu in gratitude.

    This Jewish obsession is silly. Jews are marginal in UK, Germany, Italy, Switzerland, Sweden etc. Yet, these countries are on the safe downward spiral. It is something rotten in the West as such, and Jews are, in public discourse, just a useful scapegoat, as they have been in past 1000 or so years- and nothing more.

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    • Agree: iffen
    • Replies: @reiner Tor
    It's news to me that Jews are marginal in the UK, for example.

    Anyhow, the rot has its epicenter in the US (where it became solidified between roughly 1930 and 1970 and is progressively getting only worse over time), and it was (and is still being) imported to Europe since 1945.

    There are many explanations, but regarding the role of Jews, there are only two plausible ones. One is that Jewry is an opportunistic bug, spreading the rot because it's a rotting society anyway, and would be rotting without them as well (maybe slower), and the other (promoted mostly by Kevin MacDonald) is that they are a necessary, but not sufficient condition for the ills of the west. However, even Kevin MacDonald acknowledges that exogamous whites are pretty vulnerable to the ideologies presently promoted by Jews, and that there were cases of whites creating or promoting them in the absence (or insignificant involvement of) Jews, but he thinks these were always eventually corrected. In other words, whites are and have always been unstable and prone to idiotic universalistic ideologies (sounds plausible to me), but Jews pushed us over the edge to a permanent ever more idiotic revolution.

    That Jews wield enormous pressure in the direction of rot (like they are the dominant force in Hollywood and the entertainment business in general, and they are consistently always to the left of mainstream society, and spread messages accordingly) is not a question, what is a question whether that in itself is a necessary component.

    I am not quite decided which is reality, there are serious arguments for both. I think recognizing reality is an important job for us, and we also need to recognize that reality doesn't care for our feelings - whether we like it this way or that, it could be different, and its indifferent. It also doesn't mean that any course of action would be obvious. For example the extermination of all Jews doesn't strike me as a particularly wise, advisable, moral, intelligent, or potentially successful course of action. It has been tried, and spectacularly backfired. What we do needs to be morally defensible. At least, needs to be way easier to defend than the indiscriminate extermination of millions of people, women, children, and the elderly included. I'm not quite sure if some other solution, like wholesale deportation to Israel or legal discrimination here would be a good course of action. There is a chance that a simple description and promotion of reality might work. Scientific understanding of race etc. was not very well developed when the "racist" and "anti-Semitic" description of reality was overturned by cultural Marxists (if we accept MacDonald's description, by Jews), and it might be more difficult to do a second time (if only we could get back to some kind of "racism"). It's also possible that there is simply no solution at all.

    , @Miro23

    This Jewish obsession is silly. Jews are marginal in UK, Germany, Italy, Switzerland, Sweden etc. Yet, these countries are on the safe downward spiral. It is something rotten in the West as such, and Jews are, in public discourse, just a useful scapegoat, as they have been in past 1000 or so years- and nothing more.
     
    The leading Western country is the United States, and the argument is, that without Jewish-Zionist activism, it wouldn't have got involved in these immensely expensive and harmful Middle East wars.

    You can disagree, but European countries were also dragged into the Gulf War on the false pretext of WMD (GB Tony Blair: "Iraq could launch WMD's within 45 minutes"). And you can also claim that US Neocon Jews played no part in events , but the evidence points the other way.

    The argument that Western societies are independently weak is a different story, with their tiredness and disorientation maybe opening the way for looting by special interests.

    BTW Switzerland isn't on a downward spiral. It has many foreign residents but they aren't Swiss citizens.
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  72. @Bardon Kaldian
    This Jewish obsession is silly. Jews are marginal in UK, Germany, Italy, Switzerland, Sweden etc. Yet, these countries are on the safe downward spiral. It is something rotten in the West as such, and Jews are, in public discourse, just a useful scapegoat, as they have been in past 1000 or so years- and nothing more.

    It’s news to me that Jews are marginal in the UK, for example.

    Anyhow, the rot has its epicenter in the US (where it became solidified between roughly 1930 and 1970 and is progressively getting only worse over time), and it was (and is still being) imported to Europe since 1945.

    There are many explanations, but regarding the role of Jews, there are only two plausible ones. One is that Jewry is an opportunistic bug, spreading the rot because it’s a rotting society anyway, and would be rotting without them as well (maybe slower), and the other (promoted mostly by Kevin MacDonald) is that they are a necessary, but not sufficient condition for the ills of the west. However, even Kevin MacDonald acknowledges that exogamous whites are pretty vulnerable to the ideologies presently promoted by Jews, and that there were cases of whites creating or promoting them in the absence (or insignificant involvement of) Jews, but he thinks these were always eventually corrected. In other words, whites are and have always been unstable and prone to idiotic universalistic ideologies (sounds plausible to me), but Jews pushed us over the edge to a permanent ever more idiotic revolution.

    That Jews wield enormous pressure in the direction of rot (like they are the dominant force in Hollywood and the entertainment business in general, and they are consistently always to the left of mainstream society, and spread messages accordingly) is not a question, what is a question whether that in itself is a necessary component.

    I am not quite decided which is reality, there are serious arguments for both. I think recognizing reality is an important job for us, and we also need to recognize that reality doesn’t care for our feelings – whether we like it this way or that, it could be different, and its indifferent. It also doesn’t mean that any course of action would be obvious. For example the extermination of all Jews doesn’t strike me as a particularly wise, advisable, moral, intelligent, or potentially successful course of action. It has been tried, and spectacularly backfired. What we do needs to be morally defensible. At least, needs to be way easier to defend than the indiscriminate extermination of millions of people, women, children, and the elderly included. I’m not quite sure if some other solution, like wholesale deportation to Israel or legal discrimination here would be a good course of action. There is a chance that a simple description and promotion of reality might work. Scientific understanding of race etc. was not very well developed when the “racist” and “anti-Semitic” description of reality was overturned by cultural Marxists (if we accept MacDonald’s description, by Jews), and it might be more difficult to do a second time (if only we could get back to some kind of “racism”). It’s also possible that there is simply no solution at all.

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    • Replies: @dfordoom

    One is that Jewry is an opportunistic bug, spreading the rot because it’s a rotting society anyway, and would be rotting without them as well (maybe slower)
     
    I'm inclined to think that western civilisation's problems are due to the very nature of western civilisation since the 18th century. A large part of the problem is that Christianity went from being a positive force to being very much a negative force. Christianity became more and more feminised and more and more focused on touchy-feely emotional wallowing, it became more guilt-ridden (it could be argued that Protestantism kicked Christian guilt into overdrive), it became more obsessively universalist, and perversely combined this with too much focus on the individual (probably another result of Protestantism).

    Once Christianity was hollowed out all that was left was materialism and virtue-signalling.

    It's possible that western civilisation corrupted the Jews, rather than the other way round. Jews abandoned their religion and their traditions and adopted the materialism of the West. They adopted the worst aspects of western civilisation, but on steroids. Most of the problems caused by Jews seem to be caused by secular Jews.
    , @dfordoom

    even Kevin MacDonald acknowledges that exogamous whites are pretty vulnerable to the ideologies presently promoted by Jews, and that there were cases of whites creating or promoting them in the absence (or insignificant involvement of) Jews, but he thinks these were always eventually corrected.
     
    A lot of the silly dangerous ideas that have undermined the West are entirely the creation of the West. Like liberalism. And guys like Rousseau and John Stuart Mill propounded ludicrous ideas that did a lot of damage. The Enlightenment was when it all started to go wrong and it's pretty difficult to blame the Enlightenment on the Jews.
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  73. @Bardon Kaldian
    This Jewish obsession is silly. Jews are marginal in UK, Germany, Italy, Switzerland, Sweden etc. Yet, these countries are on the safe downward spiral. It is something rotten in the West as such, and Jews are, in public discourse, just a useful scapegoat, as they have been in past 1000 or so years- and nothing more.

    This Jewish obsession is silly. Jews are marginal in UK, Germany, Italy, Switzerland, Sweden etc. Yet, these countries are on the safe downward spiral. It is something rotten in the West as such, and Jews are, in public discourse, just a useful scapegoat, as they have been in past 1000 or so years- and nothing more.

    The leading Western country is the United States, and the argument is, that without Jewish-Zionist activism, it wouldn’t have got involved in these immensely expensive and harmful Middle East wars.

    You can disagree, but European countries were also dragged into the Gulf War on the false pretext of WMD (GB Tony Blair: “Iraq could launch WMD’s within 45 minutes”). And you can also claim that US Neocon Jews played no part in events , but the evidence points the other way.

    The argument that Western societies are independently weak is a different story, with their tiredness and disorientation maybe opening the way for looting by special interests.

    BTW Switzerland isn’t on a downward spiral. It has many foreign residents but they aren’t Swiss citizens.

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    • Replies: @reiner Tor
    You are wrong about Switzerland, but it’s somewhat healthier than the rest. Its upper middle class gets its information from the same international media (either in English or often from Germany), all classes are influenced by the same Hollywood movies, etc.
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  74. @Polish Perspective
    Your post is a bit rambling (with all due respect) but it deserves attention, especially for the last two points you make.

    I'm also worried about Chinese instability. I've read the recent IMF report on financial stability and their estimate of China's true budget deficit is closer to 10% once you include off-the-books LFV(local financing vehicles) rather than the official 3%.

    The PBoC has recently come out and massively upped their previous estimate of the shadow economy, which is what your last link is about. China does have three major defence barriers. One, very high savings. Two, minimal reliance on foreign funding of their bond markets as well as minimal penetration of foreign banks. Three, strong forex reserves.

    But all three defences cannot prevent a crisis, it can only soften it substantially. The problem would then be, as Arthur Kroeber has pointed out, a Japanese stagnation but at much lower per capita GDP. The Chinese banking system is essentially lending to itself.

    Another thing which has exploded in the last 3 years especially is WMP - wealth management products - these are essentially subprime investments in many cases. Chinese retail investors can purchase them through WeChat or Alipay and massive amounts of them have done so, since they get guaranteed returns(that's a Ponzi scheme if there ever was one).

    TSF - total social financing, China's term for nominal credit growth - is still increasing substantially faster than nominal GDP. China's total debt to GDP (household, private non-financial debt as well as governmental debt) is closer to 340% if you use conservative estimates. If you use the recently updated shadow banking estimates, the figure shoots up to 650%, which is higher than almost any other industrial economy except Japan.

    I don't write this with glee. I genuinely want to see a strong China challenge the US, but there are clear and present dangers to this happening unless they get their massive credit bubble under control.

    http://www.valuewalk.com/wp-content/uploads/2017/08/china-credit-bubble-crescat-capital.png

    That image is based on BIS data, which is using much more conservative estimates than even the IMF is. If you use the IMF estimates, the Chinese bubble shoots up way higher. And as economic historians will tell you, it's not as much the absolute level that matters(though it still does) it is the speed with which it was attained. In that sense, China has a lot in common with Spain. And as I mentioned, TSF is still increasing significantly faster than nominal GDP growth, meaning they are continually leveraging their economy in an unsustainable way. This cannot continue forever, with with their Three Defences.

    P.S. This is a good commentary on the subject. It also uses more conservative official data.

    https://www.merics.org/sites/default/files/2017-10/191017_merics_ChinaMonitor_42.pdf

    rambling it may be, but that’s almost today’s norm when it comes to china ;)

    I agree with everything you write, but I would just add:
    1.Savings by themselves don’t tell the whole story. They might be non performing liabilities for all we know. I read somewhere that most white collar Chinese have most (all) of their savings in WMPs, which, as you write are almost exclusively subprime (real estate) investments.
    Besides, Chinese households seem to be pretty indebted. The Mercator study you link to tries to downplay it by stating a ”modest 20% of overall bank assets”(more like 25%) but I am not sure what’s modest about 1/4th. From the data, one can extrapolate a 70-100% ratio of debt to income for households which puts it on par with developed nations, which is…odd.
    2.Capital controls, or closing of the financial system is a potent policy tool but there are plentiful data which show, that it is absolutely not a guarantee of greater stability. In fact, it might become a liability if the shit goes down elsewhere. It’s really a question of controlling the currency, it’s outflows and asset prices. This point is tightly connected to no.3
    3. FX reserves is one area where I was rumbling when I said they are lying and/or nobody knows whats really going on. Here I will just link to two long posts by Balding in chronological order (as they are somewhat contradictory) tl;dr – the FX position is probably not that strong;within the next 3-12 months, the RMB will have to start drawing primarily from PBOC reserves rather than bank positions
    -http://www.baldingsworld.com/2017/06/30/how-chinese-banks-lowering-foreign-debt-facilitating-outflows/
    -http://www.baldingsworld.com/2017/07/17/is-the-pboc-fudging-fx-reserve-numbers/

    At the end of the day, if borrowers cannot repay their loans, savers won’t be able to access their savings, and there will a domestic financial crisis rather than a foreign capital outflow crisis.

    I share with you the desire to see a strong China a vis US but I am afraid the credit bubble cannot be contained for much longer and it’s now a question of who dug himself into a deeper hole. The US and China run correlated monetary policies for many years but now will need to diverge.

    On a sidenote: the Chinese spend a lot on many things, including supercomputers and whatnot..capital accumulation is how they grow GDP. I would count publishing in papers as capital accumulation not human capital, as it seems, what they are interested in is the numbers, not results. But how they do GDP accounting is not so straightforward. Spending levels, at least here, even tough I still would call it meaningless in many cases, we have some standards and some common denominators, but China? Also, what do they do with all the supercomputers? Is it AliPay and WeChat calculating your social score?(that shit is scary btw)

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    • Replies: @dux.ie
    """what do they do with all the supercomputers?"""

    Believe it or not, wind farm modellings. BBC on site doco http://www.bbc.com/future/story/20170621-meet-the-worlds-most-powerful-computer

    And the military researchers whinged about having no access to adequate supercomputers for modelling hypersonic vehicles. http://www.scmp.com/tech/science-research/article/1773421/chinese-supercomputer-too-slow-compete-race-hypersonic-weapons

    “””But Ye’s paper revealed that top priority weapons research did not always get access to the best supercomputers. Some mainland computer scientists said that machines such as the Tianhe-2 were not created to meet specific needs, but to win a place on the top500 list. They were “face projects”. “””

    Dispite what the SCMP said, software engineering did recognize as a notable "double first" discipline receiving special funding while supercomputers do not have a recognizable presence in the "double first" program. The supercomputer projects could be running from "petty cash".

    As such it might appear that the Chinese strategy is not on arm race and hard confrontation but using methods similar to that of US’s SDI strategy which had driven USSR into the ground economically. China seems to be able to do things cheaper and faster. The separation of top supercomputing from the millitary might be deliberate so as not to be threatening. For security reason, military research sites tend to be further inland in places like Sichuan and Qinghai while the supercomputers are mostly at the coastal areas.
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  75. I will try to be as short as I can: there is no point in arguing with antisemites. This site is full of antisemitic fantasists & conspiracy theorists. Many authors here are antisemitic true believers (Joyce, Giraldi, Shamir etc.), as are most commenters. No worry, you’re in a good company of Marx (a true believer in Rothschild conspiracy & Jewish innate ugliness), Wittgenstein (Jews are “creative” only in the field of religion), Voltaire (depravity is their essential ethnic being) etc.

    Demonological antisemitism (as different from, say, healthy ordinary antipathy) is a form of hatred as unshakeable as a religious revelation – a reasonable man simply cannot say anything empirically verifiable re this matter. At the end, this kind of hatred is a type of Manichaean cosmology & nothing rational can be said about it.

    After all, this article is about China & not about Jews. So, better stick to the point.

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    • Replies: @reiner Tor
    I don’t hate Jews. I don’t hate many people, and gentile white anti-racists are better candidates for hatred then Jews, who after all cannot help being what they are.

    I don’t believe that they are more evil than human beings in general. You don’t have to be evil to do evil things. There are plenty of examples of not very evil people doing very evil things.
    , @reiner Tor

    After all, this article is about China & not about Jews. So, better stick to the point.
     
    I agree.
    , @iffen
    there is no point in arguing with antisemites.

    Incorrect. There is much to learn. A deeper understanding of what is and what is not anti-Semitism being at the top of the list.
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  76. @Miro23

    This Jewish obsession is silly. Jews are marginal in UK, Germany, Italy, Switzerland, Sweden etc. Yet, these countries are on the safe downward spiral. It is something rotten in the West as such, and Jews are, in public discourse, just a useful scapegoat, as they have been in past 1000 or so years- and nothing more.
     
    The leading Western country is the United States, and the argument is, that without Jewish-Zionist activism, it wouldn't have got involved in these immensely expensive and harmful Middle East wars.

    You can disagree, but European countries were also dragged into the Gulf War on the false pretext of WMD (GB Tony Blair: "Iraq could launch WMD's within 45 minutes"). And you can also claim that US Neocon Jews played no part in events , but the evidence points the other way.

    The argument that Western societies are independently weak is a different story, with their tiredness and disorientation maybe opening the way for looting by special interests.

    BTW Switzerland isn't on a downward spiral. It has many foreign residents but they aren't Swiss citizens.

    You are wrong about Switzerland, but it’s somewhat healthier than the rest. Its upper middle class gets its information from the same international media (either in English or often from Germany), all classes are influenced by the same Hollywood movies, etc.

    Read More
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  77. @Bardon Kaldian
    I will try to be as short as I can: there is no point in arguing with antisemites. This site is full of antisemitic fantasists & conspiracy theorists. Many authors here are antisemitic true believers (Joyce, Giraldi, Shamir etc.), as are most commenters. No worry, you're in a good company of Marx (a true believer in Rothschild conspiracy & Jewish innate ugliness), Wittgenstein (Jews are "creative" only in the field of religion), Voltaire (depravity is their essential ethnic being) etc.

    Demonological antisemitism (as different from, say, healthy ordinary antipathy) is a form of hatred as unshakeable as a religious revelation - a reasonable man simply cannot say anything empirically verifiable re this matter. At the end, this kind of hatred is a type of Manichaean cosmology & nothing rational can be said about it.

    After all, this article is about China & not about Jews. So, better stick to the point.

    I don’t hate Jews. I don’t hate many people, and gentile white anti-racists are better candidates for hatred then Jews, who after all cannot help being what they are.

    I don’t believe that they are more evil than human beings in general. You don’t have to be evil to do evil things. There are plenty of examples of not very evil people doing very evil things.

    Read More
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  78. @Bardon Kaldian
    I will try to be as short as I can: there is no point in arguing with antisemites. This site is full of antisemitic fantasists & conspiracy theorists. Many authors here are antisemitic true believers (Joyce, Giraldi, Shamir etc.), as are most commenters. No worry, you're in a good company of Marx (a true believer in Rothschild conspiracy & Jewish innate ugliness), Wittgenstein (Jews are "creative" only in the field of religion), Voltaire (depravity is their essential ethnic being) etc.

    Demonological antisemitism (as different from, say, healthy ordinary antipathy) is a form of hatred as unshakeable as a religious revelation - a reasonable man simply cannot say anything empirically verifiable re this matter. At the end, this kind of hatred is a type of Manichaean cosmology & nothing rational can be said about it.

    After all, this article is about China & not about Jews. So, better stick to the point.

    After all, this article is about China & not about Jews. So, better stick to the point.

    I agree.

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  79. @Bardon Kaldian
    I will try to be as short as I can: there is no point in arguing with antisemites. This site is full of antisemitic fantasists & conspiracy theorists. Many authors here are antisemitic true believers (Joyce, Giraldi, Shamir etc.), as are most commenters. No worry, you're in a good company of Marx (a true believer in Rothschild conspiracy & Jewish innate ugliness), Wittgenstein (Jews are "creative" only in the field of religion), Voltaire (depravity is their essential ethnic being) etc.

    Demonological antisemitism (as different from, say, healthy ordinary antipathy) is a form of hatred as unshakeable as a religious revelation - a reasonable man simply cannot say anything empirically verifiable re this matter. At the end, this kind of hatred is a type of Manichaean cosmology & nothing rational can be said about it.

    After all, this article is about China & not about Jews. So, better stick to the point.

    there is no point in arguing with antisemites.

    Incorrect. There is much to learn. A deeper understanding of what is and what is not anti-Semitism being at the top of the list.

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    • Replies: @Bardon Kaldian

    Incorrect. There is much to learn.
     
    Disagree. There is virtually nothing to learn. If I want to learn something about this phenomenon, I'll read (alright- I have read) works by MacDonald ( http://gen.lib.rus.ec/book/index.php?md5=D06BCDDAEFD9609FBF3651DE45531A81 ), Laqueur ( http://gen.lib.rus.ec/book/index.php?md5=E194C4F4F44E1146ACC4881034E0CDDC ), Stern ( http://gen.lib.rus.ec/book/index.php?md5=653A563D70725D0C3B43856BF6AB19E7 ) or Brustein ( http://gen.lib.rus.ec/book/index.php?md5=4E86242277746DA6E5587E4DF122BDD1 ).

    If I want to have fun, I'll consult Ryssen ( http://gen.lib.rus.ec/book/index.php?md5=386FDD704B0FFAD50BC8B83176A73053 ) or watch evalion videos:

    https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=ceb-9N7Rkrw

    https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=XQRqYEHVRpU

    https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=oAGz3ej1gkY

    But, this comments section is boringly predictable...

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  80. @iffen
    there is no point in arguing with antisemites.

    Incorrect. There is much to learn. A deeper understanding of what is and what is not anti-Semitism being at the top of the list.

    Incorrect. There is much to learn.

    Disagree. There is virtually nothing to learn. If I want to learn something about this phenomenon, I’ll read (alright- I have read) works by MacDonald ( http://gen.lib.rus.ec/book/index.php?md5=D06BCDDAEFD9609FBF3651DE45531A81 ), Laqueur ( http://gen.lib.rus.ec/book/index.php?md5=E194C4F4F44E1146ACC4881034E0CDDC ), Stern ( http://gen.lib.rus.ec/book/index.php?md5=653A563D70725D0C3B43856BF6AB19E7 ) or Brustein ( http://gen.lib.rus.ec/book/index.php?md5=4E86242277746DA6E5587E4DF122BDD1 ).

    If I want to have fun, I’ll consult Ryssen ( http://gen.lib.rus.ec/book/index.php?md5=386FDD704B0FFAD50BC8B83176A73053 ) or watch evalion videos:

    But, this comments section is boringly predictable…

    Read More
    • Replies: @iffen
    But, this comments section is boringly predictable…

    Some are repetitious, but some make you think.

    Come into the comment section next Tuesday at Giraldi's article and we will see if you are any good. The JQ is always on topic and discussed 24/7.
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  81. Anonymous • Disclaimer says:
    @Andrei Martyanov

    That literally doesn’t mean anything.
     
    Sure, for Wall-Street "educated" economists it doesn't. But it does. It is, however, very difficult to explain to people who use smart-phone "argument" that, as an example< Russia does produce (manufactures) own processors while China merely packs someone's "crystals" into the box. People who have a clue they know implications. But since your horizons are limited by smart-phones, here is a Russian one:

    https://yotaphone.com/gb-en/

    It is impossible to explain to new generation of people who never dealt with modern industry, such as you, what a massive difference in technological cycle prowess between producing a jet engine and of some shitty smart-phone is. I'll give you one hint--Chinese metallurgy is not a world-class and that is why their aircraft, submarines and other things of this nature are very sub-par.

    Andrei, you are all over the place and showing yourself to be a Russian nutter.

    Russia: Good
    Everyone else: Bad

    In a later comment you talk about how Chinese processors aren’t worth anything because Intel has 91% market share.

    Tell me how much of a market share does the yota phone have? Must mean the pride of Russian bloggers everywhere phone is not garbage no?

    Iq is not a magical switch that lets smart people be good at everything. Countries and people specialize in what they have a competitive advantage in. So not building a world class jet engine proves nothing except for your ignorance.

    Also Korea and Japan have both gone from making poor quality cars to world class cars. Why can’t China?

    China is just another 15-20 years behind Japan and Korea and your artificial deadlines don’t mean anything.

    Read More
    • Replies: @Andrei Martyanov

    Tell me how much of a market share does the yota phone have? Must mean the pride of Russian bloggers everywhere phone is not garbage no?
     
    That is why any discussion of serious issues with you is a waste of time. You probably have degree in "humanities" and never worked a day in serious industry.
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  82. Anonymous • Disclaimer says:
    @Bardon Kaldian
    All this talk about this or that type of car (or whatever) is unimportant. What counts is:

    * China is 95% Han. They can even lose 30% of their territory (which will not happen) & still be the biggest truly settled piece of earth worth living on.

    * they are ethnic nationalists & will remain so as the species homo sapiens sapiens is still around

    * they will not let blacks and Muslims in. What marginal Muslim minorities they have, Uyghurs etc.- they'll control them. This country will remain Han- forever (if "forever" has any rational meaning)

    * they don't care & will not allow feminism, multiculturalism, liberalism & other faggot ideologies in.

    * they are optimists & believe that future belongs to them. They are not tired as, say, Europe is: http://www.spiegel.de/international/europe/interview-with-historian-walter-laqueur-on-the-decline-of-europe-a-912837.html The Chinese have the will to live & expand- but only regionally, as classic expansion goes.

    * they can lose 400 million people & survive. No need to further comment on this.

    * they are not, civilizationally, creative as Europeans had been. They don't have creative titans like Plato, Michelangelo, Newton or Gauss. But, they need not be; the post-modern world is not for giants. They have sufficiently great minds like this one (I know he's "American", but clearly, this is not what this all is about): https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Terence_Tao

    *they will never be of much importance in films, music, literature.. or any popular & high culture. So what?

    Whoever has this kind of stuff, combined, has a great future for him.

    I agree with all of this except that they will not have any importance in film, literature, and culture.

    Japan has had an enormous cultural affect on the West and so has Korea. Why would China not also have an impact? If you are saying they will not have as good music as America and the UK, that I believe.

    But they will absolutely will have a huge cultural impact as they progress in their own way. China already has a cultural impact from its past accomplishments, I think this will go up over time.

    I think the key point you made is that Chinese youth are optimists. They see that they can become millionaires if they just apply themselves. Millenials in America are a total joke. They are narcissists and they will get their lunch eaten by the Chinese.

    Read More
    • Replies: @Bardon Kaldian

    I agree with all of this except that they will not have any importance in film, literature, and culture.

    Japan has had an enormous cultural affect on the West and so has Korea. Why would China not also have an impact? If you are saying they will not have as good music as America and the UK, that I believe.

    But they will absolutely will have a huge cultural impact as they progress in their own way. China already has a cultural impact from its past accomplishments, I think this will go up over time.
     
    This is a difficult question & I can only offer my (subjective) opinion.

    I have assimilated some (high) Japanese & Chinese culture and I don't see it being of universal importance: one of four classical Chinese novels (Dream of the Red Chamber), then Lady Murasaki and Sei Shonagon. Later, some Mishima. This is good, but not that good.

    Frankly, I don't see how they can compete with Euro-American great 19th/20th C writers (Goncharov, Flaubert, Whitman, Conrad, ..), let alone supreme giants like Dostoevsky or Proust.

    As for movies- true, some Japanese films are great. But, with most of Asian films the problem is this: their sensibility is different from ours (whites', Europeans') & their cultural codes are alien. I just don't understand them- and I'm not an ideological Euro-centric. For instance, thoughtful American critic Jonathan Rosenbaum has enumerated numerous-among others- Chinese movies here: https://www.alsolikelife.com/filmdiary/rosenbaum

    Just glance at 90s & 00s:

    https://www.alsolikelife.com/1990s-jonathan-rosenbaums-essential-cinema
    https://www.alsolikelife.com/20002003-jonathan-rosenbaums-1000-essential-films

    Who has seen these movies?

    And how can a (white) viewer tell the difference between imaginary Ching & Pong characters? They all look the same to me (no offense to east Asians).
    , @dfordoom

    I agree with all of this except that they will not have any importance in film, literature, and culture.

    Japan has had an enormous cultural affect on the West and so has Korea. Why would China not also have an impact?
     
    I hope you're right. China's biggest long-term danger is being swamped by American culture. To survive China will need to develop some pop culture muscle. Being able to build supercomputers won't save you when your young people embrace the decadent cultural values of the West.
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  83. @Anonymous
    I agree with all of this except that they will not have any importance in film, literature, and culture.

    Japan has had an enormous cultural affect on the West and so has Korea. Why would China not also have an impact? If you are saying they will not have as good music as America and the UK, that I believe.

    But they will absolutely will have a huge cultural impact as they progress in their own way. China already has a cultural impact from its past accomplishments, I think this will go up over time.

    I think the key point you made is that Chinese youth are optimists. They see that they can become millionaires if they just apply themselves. Millenials in America are a total joke. They are narcissists and they will get their lunch eaten by the Chinese.

    I agree with all of this except that they will not have any importance in film, literature, and culture.

    Japan has had an enormous cultural affect on the West and so has Korea. Why would China not also have an impact? If you are saying they will not have as good music as America and the UK, that I believe.

    But they will absolutely will have a huge cultural impact as they progress in their own way. China already has a cultural impact from its past accomplishments, I think this will go up over time.

    This is a difficult question & I can only offer my (subjective) opinion.

    I have assimilated some (high) Japanese & Chinese culture and I don’t see it being of universal importance: one of four classical Chinese novels (Dream of the Red Chamber), then Lady Murasaki and Sei Shonagon. Later, some Mishima. This is good, but not that good.

    Frankly, I don’t see how they can compete with Euro-American great 19th/20th C writers (Goncharov, Flaubert, Whitman, Conrad, ..), let alone supreme giants like Dostoevsky or Proust.

    As for movies- true, some Japanese films are great. But, with most of Asian films the problem is this: their sensibility is different from ours (whites’, Europeans’) & their cultural codes are alien. I just don’t understand them- and I’m not an ideological Euro-centric. For instance, thoughtful American critic Jonathan Rosenbaum has enumerated numerous-among others- Chinese movies here: https://www.alsolikelife.com/filmdiary/rosenbaum

    Just glance at 90s & 00s:

    https://www.alsolikelife.com/1990s-jonathan-rosenbaums-essential-cinema

    https://www.alsolikelife.com/20002003-jonathan-rosenbaums-1000-essential-films

    Who has seen these movies?

    And how can a (white) viewer tell the difference between imaginary Ching & Pong characters? They all look the same to me (no offense to east Asians).

    Read More
    • Replies: @Anonymous
    If you are talking about the high arts, maybe I am not the best to have this conversation with you.

    But I will say that with China at least, the Tao te Ching is incredibly universal and brilliant. The art of war is also universal and brilliant.

    I don't dabble in high art. But these are examples that have stood the test of time.
    , @AP

    Traits of Chinese people & civilization are such that they are in most crucial areas fit for the post-modern functional technological world. In short, they are Jews without humor, but with ethno-cultural traits & position that are perfectly fitted for 21st century.
     
    Somehow your observation brought to mind this essay by Musil.
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  84. @Yan Shen
    Has anyone pointed out that a disproportionate amount of STEM work in the US is done by Chinese Americans? Chinese Americans are about 1.5 to 1.6 percent of the American population, but surely must contribute significantly more than that to American STEM.

    No one doubts it. Problem is, even in STEM most of the work is pure drudgery that requires no creativity.

    Read More
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  85. @Thorfinnsson
    Both your comment and 5371's are silly.

    You can't even buy a bad car anymore. As recently as 20 years ago the stuff Detroit turned out was awful with some exceptions (Ford and Oldsmobile made good cars in the 90s). And Korean cars were an absolute joke until just 10 years ago.

    The German luxury automakers have fallen in quality rankings because these quality problems don't matter that much anymore. Certainly it's not impacting their sales figures.

    Automobiles used to frequently suffer from serious mechanical problems.

    These days just about any car you buy is good for 100,000 miles with little more maintenance than oil changes and brake pad replacement. If you wanted a quality car in the 1980s you had buy a Volvo or a Japanese car. I believe Mercedes had a reputation for quality in those days as well, but I've never driven an 80s Benz.

    And quality is set to increase even further with electrification. No engine or transmission. Mechanical maintenance down to brakes and suspension components only.

    The real problem with cars these days is that regulations have turned them into boring appliances. You now have to spend a lot of money to get an interesting car, with some exceptions from Detroit (muscle/pony car redux) and the Mazda Miata (effeminate, but great track car).

    [These days just about any car you buy is good for 100,000 miles with little more maintenance than oil changes and brake pad replacement]

    Nonsense.

    [And quality is set to increase even further with electrification]

    Which is why Tesla has such a sterling record. Oh, wait!

    Read More
    • Replies: @reiner Tor
    Cars are getting more and more complicated electronics, this affects their reliability. How many electronic devices work fine for ten years without an issue? It’s difficult. Especially since there are so many of them, often sent by different suppliers, and often have to be coordinated. The engine, the transmission, ABS and all the traction control etc., not to mention GPS or other similar devices, hi-fi, parking assistant, multiple cameras (including for keeping you in your lane), and if any of those has a problem, it already causes a lot of pain in the ass. It’ll start with a warning message (whose importance you won’t be able to easily assess), you’ll have to take it to the garage, and often even unneeded features annoy you if they don’t work. (Someone told me that in the 1970s all cars from Detroit came equipped with a clock, which stopped working after a few months or years. Thereby constantly annoying the passengers and reminding them how unreliable the car was...)

    I don’t think reliability is out of vogue just yet.
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  86. @5371
    [These days just about any car you buy is good for 100,000 miles with little more maintenance than oil changes and brake pad replacement]

    Nonsense.

    [And quality is set to increase even further with electrification]

    Which is why Tesla has such a sterling record. Oh, wait!

    Cars are getting more and more complicated electronics, this affects their reliability. How many electronic devices work fine for ten years without an issue? It’s difficult. Especially since there are so many of them, often sent by different suppliers, and often have to be coordinated. The engine, the transmission, ABS and all the traction control etc., not to mention GPS or other similar devices, hi-fi, parking assistant, multiple cameras (including for keeping you in your lane), and if any of those has a problem, it already causes a lot of pain in the ass. It’ll start with a warning message (whose importance you won’t be able to easily assess), you’ll have to take it to the garage, and often even unneeded features annoy you if they don’t work. (Someone told me that in the 1970s all cars from Detroit came equipped with a clock, which stopped working after a few months or years. Thereby constantly annoying the passengers and reminding them how unreliable the car was…)

    I don’t think reliability is out of vogue just yet.

    Read More
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  87. I believe in 10-15 years, China will catch up with the US in major technology fields, and will take the lead in 20 to 25 years.

    One major problem with the US is the STEM education. Even most good high school graduates are not equipped with the necessary math training to survive the college STEM classes. For those who manage to graduate with a STEM degree, few of them will pursue a master or Ph.D degree. That’s why you don’t see many American students in graduate school in STEM field. Also, it will be hard for Americans to survive in the tech companies that full of Indian and Chinese immigrants, at least my two American born Chinese children don’t want to work in that kind of company and I don’t see how they can compete in that kind of environment.

    Read More
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  88. Anonymous • Disclaimer says:
    @Bardon Kaldian

    I agree with all of this except that they will not have any importance in film, literature, and culture.

    Japan has had an enormous cultural affect on the West and so has Korea. Why would China not also have an impact? If you are saying they will not have as good music as America and the UK, that I believe.

    But they will absolutely will have a huge cultural impact as they progress in their own way. China already has a cultural impact from its past accomplishments, I think this will go up over time.
     
    This is a difficult question & I can only offer my (subjective) opinion.

    I have assimilated some (high) Japanese & Chinese culture and I don't see it being of universal importance: one of four classical Chinese novels (Dream of the Red Chamber), then Lady Murasaki and Sei Shonagon. Later, some Mishima. This is good, but not that good.

    Frankly, I don't see how they can compete with Euro-American great 19th/20th C writers (Goncharov, Flaubert, Whitman, Conrad, ..), let alone supreme giants like Dostoevsky or Proust.

    As for movies- true, some Japanese films are great. But, with most of Asian films the problem is this: their sensibility is different from ours (whites', Europeans') & their cultural codes are alien. I just don't understand them- and I'm not an ideological Euro-centric. For instance, thoughtful American critic Jonathan Rosenbaum has enumerated numerous-among others- Chinese movies here: https://www.alsolikelife.com/filmdiary/rosenbaum

    Just glance at 90s & 00s:

    https://www.alsolikelife.com/1990s-jonathan-rosenbaums-essential-cinema
    https://www.alsolikelife.com/20002003-jonathan-rosenbaums-1000-essential-films

    Who has seen these movies?

    And how can a (white) viewer tell the difference between imaginary Ching & Pong characters? They all look the same to me (no offense to east Asians).

    If you are talking about the high arts, maybe I am not the best to have this conversation with you.

    But I will say that with China at least, the Tao te Ching is incredibly universal and brilliant. The art of war is also universal and brilliant.

    I don’t dabble in high art. But these are examples that have stood the test of time.

    Read More
    • Replies: @Bardon Kaldian
    Of course, there are numerous-especially Confucian (Doctrine of the Mean; Analects) - classics well worth reading, as well as the incomparable I Ching (Richard Wilhelm translation). But these are the summits of a civilization, akin to Plato's "Parmenides", Rembrandt's self-portraits or Bach's "Mass in B minor".

    Not for groundlings & certainly not for soap-opera fans.
    , @Andrei Martyanov

    The art of war is also universal and brilliant.
     
    How about I state that Vom Kriege is even more universal and more brilliant? How about Admiral Cebrowski and NCW--also very brilliant and universal.
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  89. @Anonymous
    Andrei, you are all over the place and showing yourself to be a Russian nutter.

    Russia: Good
    Everyone else: Bad

    In a later comment you talk about how Chinese processors aren't worth anything because Intel has 91% market share.

    Tell me how much of a market share does the yota phone have? Must mean the pride of Russian bloggers everywhere phone is not garbage no?

    Iq is not a magical switch that lets smart people be good at everything. Countries and people specialize in what they have a competitive advantage in. So not building a world class jet engine proves nothing except for your ignorance.

    Also Korea and Japan have both gone from making poor quality cars to world class cars. Why can't China?

    China is just another 15-20 years behind Japan and Korea and your artificial deadlines don't mean anything.

    Tell me how much of a market share does the yota phone have? Must mean the pride of Russian bloggers everywhere phone is not garbage no?

    That is why any discussion of serious issues with you is a waste of time. You probably have degree in “humanities” and never worked a day in serious industry.

    Read More
    • Replies: @Anonymous
    In other words, you have no response so you will have to take your ball and go home.

    Russia Stronk!
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  90. @Hippopotamusdrome
    Excerpt from a review of the Yoda-phone:


    YotaPhone 2 Review: More Than a Gimmick, Less Than a Good Phone
    ... I ran into many issues with the YotaPhone that I just didn’t have with other phones—things I don’t even usually need to test because I just take them for granted.
    ... The absolute most annoying one was the 3.5mm headphone jack. ... without fail, the YotaPhone would lose connection with my earbuds and my music would pause. After pressing play, since my headphones were very much still attached, the music would start playing out loud for all to hear

     

    Excerpt from a review of the Yoda-phone:

    Good. I don’t care about Yota-phone, I merely pointed out that Russia also has smart-phone. China manufactures cars–they suck, but China still makes them. Is this a good illustration of point?

    Read More
    • Replies: @Anonymous
    Actually, you were the one that pointed out the completely arbitrary idea that a nation is not stronk until it has 5th generation engines.

    Smart phone was just an arbitrary counter example to show you how silly your example was.

    China might not make good cars now, but Japan and Korea also made shitty cars at one point. So again, you keep bringing up arbitrary ideas.

    Keep in mind that Russia brings in massive revenue from selling resources that they can put into jet engine development. Another good thing for Russia is that they have a lot of Jewish admixture in its history which explains why there are Russians with exceptional minds.

    Good for Russia. But it is still just one indicator that doesn't mean anything.
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  91. @Anonymous
    If you are talking about the high arts, maybe I am not the best to have this conversation with you.

    But I will say that with China at least, the Tao te Ching is incredibly universal and brilliant. The art of war is also universal and brilliant.

    I don't dabble in high art. But these are examples that have stood the test of time.

    Of course, there are numerous-especially Confucian (Doctrine of the Mean; Analects) – classics well worth reading, as well as the incomparable I Ching (Richard Wilhelm translation). But these are the summits of a civilization, akin to Plato’s “Parmenides”, Rembrandt’s self-portraits or Bach’s “Mass in B minor”.

    Not for groundlings & certainly not for soap-opera fans.

    Read More
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  92. Robot density by country:

    Moreover, China’s figures would now be far higher, whereas Russia remains near the bottom.

    Hard to believe Russia has superior manufacturing quality to China (or any serious country, really) with such figures, apart from a few highly specific sectors in the MIC.

    Incidentally, Russian consumer cars – that would mostly be Ladas – remain a byword for unreliability (how many times did Putin’s break down during his Potemkin ride across Siberia?). Cross country vehicles are very good and Russian ones regularly win the Dakar rallies. And the cars that Western manufacturers assemble within Russia (and source an increasing percentage of parts from) are presumably no worse than those assembled in Czechia.

    Read More
    • Replies: @Andrei Martyanov
    Anatoly, you certainly gave a new meaning to "situational awareness". Were there statistics on robotics say not from 2011 but 1995, how about 1952? Why not, the accuracy of the point made would be absolutely the same.
    , @reiner Tor
    The Budapest metro “refurbishment” disaster is another example of bad quality produced by Russia. The fact that the deal was itself rotten to the core (unfortunately a tradition in Hungary for each major public investment to be corrupt, though it was perhaps more corrupt than usual, another stereotype involving deals with Russians) didn’t help either. It’s very bad PR for Russia in one of the least Russophobic countries in the former Eastern Bloc.
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  93. @Bardon Kaldian
    I find this all funny: in my view, the Chinese simply are unstoppable. Manufacturing? Pooh... They will have flying saucers at the time everybody here is still be rambling about this or that engine.

    Han Chinese are 95% of China & they will not experience collapse that most Western world is slated for in next few decades.

    Traits of Chinese people & civilization are such that they are in most crucial areas fit for the post-modern functional technological world. In short, they are Jews without humor, but with ethno-cultural traits & position that are perfectly fitted for 21st century.

    In all likelihood, they will never dominate in areas of high & popular culture, as well in some other fields. But, forget about everything else (copycats, not creative,..).

    In next 20-40 years (only WWW III could stop them-and even this is dubious), China will absolutely dominate all areas of technological, military, economic & scientific power. And who disagrees, well- they'll simply eat him: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=BFckPhx261k

    I find this all funny: in my view, the Chinese simply are unstoppable. Manufacturing? Pooh… They will have flying saucers at the time everybody here is still be rambling about this or that engine.

    No, they will not. All their space programs: from rocketry to even BeiDou GPS are totally derivative from Soviet/Russian and European (GALILEO) and are late and sub-par. But the question is not even this: the MAIN question for China is–will PLAN be able to provide for China, who is still largely dependent on SLOC (Shipping Lanes Of Communications) and even with One Belt, One Road coming to fruition she will remain dependent on it, a reliable and sustainable Sea Control required for such a trade. The answer is unequivocal NO. Unless the United States goes down in flames tomorrow and world ocean suddenly is vacated for taking Chinese Navy will remain generation or two behind both technologically and operationally behind US Navy, even if to consider US Navy’s many very real problems. China is a minor league here, especially when one takes a look at the world-class and massive US Navy’s submarine force, which can decimate largely sub-par Chinese Navy if need be beyond first island chain. I was asked some time ago about China and Japan realistically going at it because of the islands dispute–I repeat my answer: Japan’s first class submarine force will simply sink any force PLAN will decide to deploy beyond this first island chain.

    Now comes this very interesting question: how difficult it is to build a world-class navy? I will say just that: on several dozens orders of magnitude more complex than manufacture some shitty smart-phone or assemble SONY TV set. So, China is not only stoppable but for now she still didn’t produce any tangible strategic, operational or technological achievement where it matters which would give reasons to state otherwise. But there is more to this issue, which unfolds as we speak–take Russia out of Chinese equation and anyone in the US with a half-decent brain would know what to do with China. Another matter that there are no such people in US anymore and China should count her blessings for having Russia reliably covering her strategic rear. Yet, even with that–I would love to hear anyone’s (especially from “specialists” in smart-phones) how long would it take for US Navy to lock up PLAN in its bases. And this is just one of very many factors which must be considered when stating on how “unstoppable” are Chinese.

    Read More
    • Replies: @Anonymous
    Here you are really off your rocker.

    China does not have a world class Navy, lots of countries build better ships including countries like France. What's your point?

    Are you trying to imply that America will block off Chinese sea lanes to cripple its industries? This is an act of war. While I have no doubt the Chinese navy would lose that battle, the end result would be nuclear war. Not just a naval battle. So to imply that sea lanes would be interrupted is just a fantasy.

    Also, I don't see China as the weaker partner in the Russia/China alliance at all. Russia benefits as much if not more from the relationship than China does.

    Russia has stronger military tech, but China has better capital markets and manufacturing base. The truth is both countries rely on each other for defense and if either was toppled by the West the other would be sure to fall.
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  94. @Anonymous
    If you are talking about the high arts, maybe I am not the best to have this conversation with you.

    But I will say that with China at least, the Tao te Ching is incredibly universal and brilliant. The art of war is also universal and brilliant.

    I don't dabble in high art. But these are examples that have stood the test of time.

    The art of war is also universal and brilliant.

    How about I state that Vom Kriege is even more universal and more brilliant? How about Admiral Cebrowski and NCW–also very brilliant and universal.

    Read More
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  95. @Bardon Kaldian

    Incorrect. There is much to learn.
     
    Disagree. There is virtually nothing to learn. If I want to learn something about this phenomenon, I'll read (alright- I have read) works by MacDonald ( http://gen.lib.rus.ec/book/index.php?md5=D06BCDDAEFD9609FBF3651DE45531A81 ), Laqueur ( http://gen.lib.rus.ec/book/index.php?md5=E194C4F4F44E1146ACC4881034E0CDDC ), Stern ( http://gen.lib.rus.ec/book/index.php?md5=653A563D70725D0C3B43856BF6AB19E7 ) or Brustein ( http://gen.lib.rus.ec/book/index.php?md5=4E86242277746DA6E5587E4DF122BDD1 ).

    If I want to have fun, I'll consult Ryssen ( http://gen.lib.rus.ec/book/index.php?md5=386FDD704B0FFAD50BC8B83176A73053 ) or watch evalion videos:

    https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=ceb-9N7Rkrw

    https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=XQRqYEHVRpU

    https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=oAGz3ej1gkY

    But, this comments section is boringly predictable...

    But, this comments section is boringly predictable…

    Some are repetitious, but some make you think.

    Come into the comment section next Tuesday at Giraldi’s article and we will see if you are any good. The JQ is always on topic and discussed 24/7.

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    • Replies: @Bardon Kaldian
    Thanks, but...why? I've heard all these arguments, have long since formed an opinion & generally do not find Jews either that important or that interesting (nor, for that matter, antisemites).

    Why waste tons of bits on fruitless discussions with people who religiously adhere to ideas about history or life that are less realistic than Tolkien?

    I'll rather enjoy my life ....
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  96. @Daniel Chieh

    It’s a common for Americans to assume the Japanese have a culture inherently better at fostering creativity than the Chinese due to the popular image of Japan in America, but I have done enough comparative research and had enough personal exchanges to conclude this assumption is definitely false.
     
    Its hard to deny that in terms of polish, though, the amount and quantity of content produced by doujin circles steamrolls anything from China and in my opinion even exceeds American equivalents of "indie art" circles.

    There's a significant difference between scientific and artistic creativity, admittedly, but that's something worth citing. I've done research and there really doesn't seem to be much of an innovative indie game industry, for example, in China. Almost all of the blood there goes to mobile games, and while some of it is quite good, there's a definitely mercenary aspect to it. With a few exceptions, there doesn't seem to be a sense of "love" in much of the work, inasmuch as a focus on monetization.

    I'll be happy to see any contrary examples.

    The predominance of mobile games in China has nothing to do with lack of creativity but rather the technological leapfrog effect. Chinese game developers reach a far greater audience and earn more revenue by developing mobile games, not PC or console ones. It also helps that mobile games based around the microtransaction revenue model require much less upfront investment to produce.

    As for their indie art output, it seems you are not familiar enough with this scene in China. Homegrown webnovels, webcomics, and animation have enormous followings, and the quality of some of their recent output is not significantly far behind the standard of Japanese works.

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    • Replies: @Icm2
    I'll provide two examples of promising recent cultural products from China (one video game currently in development, one highly acclaimed anime series still in production):

    https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=3b9H0k_oBn4

    The development of this game transitioned from being a Skyrim mod to a full-fledged standalone RPG based on Unreal Engine 4. More info and released screenshots/video can be found on the developer's Weibo: https://weibo.com/u/1587945737

    https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=qBzUI8oivW4

    This animation series produced by Tencent Pictures is based off a popular webnovel about e-sports. Otakus worldwide had a positive reception to the first season, which was released last year.

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  97. @Anatoly Karlin
    Robot density by country:

    http://www.unz.com/wp-content/uploads/2017/10/world-robotics-2013-robot-density.png

    Moreover, China's figures would now be far higher, whereas Russia remains near the bottom.

    Hard to believe Russia has superior manufacturing quality to China (or any serious country, really) with such figures, apart from a few highly specific sectors in the MIC.

    Incidentally, Russian consumer cars - that would mostly be Ladas - remain a byword for unreliability (how many times did Putin's break down during his Potemkin ride across Siberia?). Cross country vehicles are very good and Russian ones regularly win the Dakar rallies. And the cars that Western manufacturers assemble within Russia (and source an increasing percentage of parts from) are presumably no worse than those assembled in Czechia.

    Anatoly, you certainly gave a new meaning to “situational awareness”. Were there statistics on robotics say not from 2011 but 1995, how about 1952? Why not, the accuracy of the point made would be absolutely the same.

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  98. @Icm2
    The predominance of mobile games in China has nothing to do with lack of creativity but rather the technological leapfrog effect. Chinese game developers reach a far greater audience and earn more revenue by developing mobile games, not PC or console ones. It also helps that mobile games based around the microtransaction revenue model require much less upfront investment to produce.

    As for their indie art output, it seems you are not familiar enough with this scene in China. Homegrown webnovels, webcomics, and animation have enormous followings, and the quality of some of their recent output is not significantly far behind the standard of Japanese works.

    I’ll provide two examples of promising recent cultural products from China (one video game currently in development, one highly acclaimed anime series still in production):

    The development of this game transitioned from being a Skyrim mod to a full-fledged standalone RPG based on Unreal Engine 4. More info and released screenshots/video can be found on the developer’s Weibo: https://weibo.com/u/1587945737

    This animation series produced by Tencent Pictures is based off a popular webnovel about e-sports. Otakus worldwide had a positive reception to the first season, which was released last year.

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    • Replies: @Anatoly Karlin
    That video game looks cool, looking forwards to delving into Chinese video games if/when they start coming out.

    Graphics look good, though not superlative. If they have that many characters on screen at the same time in battle as at 1:48 that would be genuinely impressive. Battle/death animation at the very end looks pretty standard, though hard to judge since its just 1 second.
    , @Daniel Chieh
    Eh, I'm not going to be convinced on the idea that mobile games are a technological leapfrog in any way - various factors(screen size, controls, etc.) serve to cripple the complexity that mobiles can provide in their offerings. League of Legends remains the most popular game in China, for example, and that would be impossible to reproduce on a mobile platform.

    Its good to hear that there is more homegrown production of other work, though, and hopefully a source for gradual internal experience and buildup. I haven't really seen much indie work, but hopefully that will also change. Is there an active open source community now? I know that GitHub was unblocked but it should not have been censored in the first place. Its toxic to the development of technological skill and innovation.

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  99. @iffen
    But, this comments section is boringly predictable…

    Some are repetitious, but some make you think.

    Come into the comment section next Tuesday at Giraldi's article and we will see if you are any good. The JQ is always on topic and discussed 24/7.

    Thanks, but…why? I’ve heard all these arguments, have long since formed an opinion & generally do not find Jews either that important or that interesting (nor, for that matter, antisemites).

    Why waste tons of bits on fruitless discussions with people who religiously adhere to ideas about history or life that are less realistic than Tolkien?

    I’ll rather enjoy my life ….

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    • Replies: @Anonymous
    Whatever one thinks of Jews, to say that they are not important is a crazy talk. You can't be serious!
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  100. @Anatoly Karlin
    Robot density by country:

    http://www.unz.com/wp-content/uploads/2017/10/world-robotics-2013-robot-density.png

    Moreover, China's figures would now be far higher, whereas Russia remains near the bottom.

    Hard to believe Russia has superior manufacturing quality to China (or any serious country, really) with such figures, apart from a few highly specific sectors in the MIC.

    Incidentally, Russian consumer cars - that would mostly be Ladas - remain a byword for unreliability (how many times did Putin's break down during his Potemkin ride across Siberia?). Cross country vehicles are very good and Russian ones regularly win the Dakar rallies. And the cars that Western manufacturers assemble within Russia (and source an increasing percentage of parts from) are presumably no worse than those assembled in Czechia.

    The Budapest metro “refurbishment” disaster is another example of bad quality produced by Russia. The fact that the deal was itself rotten to the core (unfortunately a tradition in Hungary for each major public investment to be corrupt, though it was perhaps more corrupt than usual, another stereotype involving deals with Russians) didn’t help either. It’s very bad PR for Russia in one of the least Russophobic countries in the former Eastern Bloc.

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    • Replies: @Anatoly Karlin
    Those metro cars seem to be similar to the new metro wagons that are replacing the current ones in the Moscow Metro, I think they're aesthetically inferior to the old green/blue ones, but I haven't noticed or read that they had any particular defects, I wonder if Hungary just got a bad bunch.
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  101. @Icm2
    I'll provide two examples of promising recent cultural products from China (one video game currently in development, one highly acclaimed anime series still in production):

    https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=3b9H0k_oBn4

    The development of this game transitioned from being a Skyrim mod to a full-fledged standalone RPG based on Unreal Engine 4. More info and released screenshots/video can be found on the developer's Weibo: https://weibo.com/u/1587945737

    https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=qBzUI8oivW4

    This animation series produced by Tencent Pictures is based off a popular webnovel about e-sports. Otakus worldwide had a positive reception to the first season, which was released last year.

    That video game looks cool, looking forwards to delving into Chinese video games if/when they start coming out.

    Graphics look good, though not superlative. If they have that many characters on screen at the same time in battle as at 1:48 that would be genuinely impressive. Battle/death animation at the very end looks pretty standard, though hard to judge since its just 1 second.

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  102. @reiner Tor
    The Budapest metro “refurbishment” disaster is another example of bad quality produced by Russia. The fact that the deal was itself rotten to the core (unfortunately a tradition in Hungary for each major public investment to be corrupt, though it was perhaps more corrupt than usual, another stereotype involving deals with Russians) didn’t help either. It’s very bad PR for Russia in one of the least Russophobic countries in the former Eastern Bloc.

    Those metro cars seem to be similar to the new metro wagons that are replacing the current ones in the Moscow Metro, I think they’re aesthetically inferior to the old green/blue ones, but I haven’t noticed or read that they had any particular defects, I wonder if Hungary just got a bad bunch.

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    • Replies: @reiner Tor
    We got the old model, because it was supposed to be a refurbishment only, but these were essentially new cars, except the old models. It is rumored that they had been produced years before, but they were unable to sell them, until they found some corrupt Hungarian idiots.

    We also had those blue ones for decades, the same as you had in Moscow, but now some modern cars with air conditioning would have been better. We won’t spend money on it for decades now, and will be stuck with some 1980s technology until then.

    By the way the article was from the summer, the cars now seem to be running okay, I think, though they remain deeply unpopular. That metro line is now being revamped itself, so I will avoid it for a couple years until they finish.

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  103. @Anatoly Karlin
    Those metro cars seem to be similar to the new metro wagons that are replacing the current ones in the Moscow Metro, I think they're aesthetically inferior to the old green/blue ones, but I haven't noticed or read that they had any particular defects, I wonder if Hungary just got a bad bunch.

    We got the old model, because it was supposed to be a refurbishment only, but these were essentially new cars, except the old models. It is rumored that they had been produced years before, but they were unable to sell them, until they found some corrupt Hungarian idiots.

    We also had those blue ones for decades, the same as you had in Moscow, but now some modern cars with air conditioning would have been better. We won’t spend money on it for decades now, and will be stuck with some 1980s technology until then.

    By the way the article was from the summer, the cars now seem to be running okay, I think, though they remain deeply unpopular. That metro line is now being revamped itself, so I will avoid it for a couple years until they finish.

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  104. @Bardon Kaldian
    Thanks, but...why? I've heard all these arguments, have long since formed an opinion & generally do not find Jews either that important or that interesting (nor, for that matter, antisemites).

    Why waste tons of bits on fruitless discussions with people who religiously adhere to ideas about history or life that are less realistic than Tolkien?

    I'll rather enjoy my life ....

    Whatever one thinks of Jews, to say that they are not important is a crazy talk. You can’t be serious!

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  105. @Andrei Martyanov

    Soviet Union made great fighter jet engines, yet they were unable to provide their people with iPhone equivalents of the time. This was one of the major reasons for the collapse of the USSR.
     
    Soviet Union collapsed for a completely different reasons, among which deficit of some high quality consumer goods, was secondary if not tertiary factor. Soviet Union collapsed because of its multi-cultural nature with especially Middle Asia Republics being a gigantic drain and a source of instability (with Caucasus being second). The abyss separating the culture of Russia proper and of say Uzbekistan or any other place there is unbridgeable.

    I don’t understand your contempt for iPhone.
     
    I don't have contempt to a small electronic device. I do, however, have a contempt for the idea and culture behind it--mindless consumerism and superficiality of highly uneducated (I don't mean formal degrees) people. It is a material embodiment of such "phenomena" as a Face Book--a sort of mental illness of both human and economic nature. I have some smart-phone, some Samsung, I don't even know the model, which I would have never bought if not for my beloved Alcatel flip-phone simply dying on me.

    P.S. I know what technologies go into communications. I also have a very good idea of what it takes to build a good aircraft. Do the forensic experiment and mentally model what would happen if:

    a) people go back to a regular cell-phones (basic functions, some text etc.) and no Face Book;
    b) NO commercial aviation.

    Soviet Union collapsed for a completely different reasons

    No, I don’t mean the separation of USSR into the constituent republic. That was the end result of the economic and social breakdown, which, in turn, was brought about by moral collapse of the Soviet society. And universal worship of Western consumer goods (which you must remember) was a factor and a symptom of that collapse.

    (Incidentally, the Central Asian republics didn’t want to leave the USSR until the last possible moment and in the end were de facto ejected.)

    I do, however, have a contempt for the idea and culture behind it–mindless consumerism and superficiality of highly uneducated (I don’t mean formal degrees) people.

    I am sorry but you don’t get to decide what’s “mindless consumerism” or “superficiality.” Soviet rulers tried to do that and look where that brought them. People want stuff and people must get stuff, no matter what you and I think about it. If you don’t have that, best fighter jets in the world won’t help you.

    So good on China for being able to provide its people with consumer goods they desire. This is the foundation of a healthy economy. If China has that, with time it will be able develop anything else.

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    • Replies: @Andrei Martyanov

    (Incidentally, the Central Asian republics didn’t want to leave the USSR until the last possible moment and in the end were de facto ejected.)
     
    Then you are really-really badly informed on the issues of Fergana Valley and why USSR primarily went into Afghanistan. You also, never heard I guess about situation in Kazakhstan in 1980s (name Kolbin rings a bell?)

    I am sorry but you don’t get to decide what’s “mindless consumerism” or “superficiality.”
     
    Oh yes, I do. Not only I get to decide, I also forward my thesis about it for a public and peer-review. You want to go against this thesis--your God-given right and you will "decide" how to do it, but purely on the merit of many discussions here, I don't think you will be able to.

    And universal worship of Western consumer goods (which you must remember) was a factor and a symptom of that collapse.
     
    It did exist but I can only repeat my point--it was secondary-tertiary factor. I, frankly, have no interest discussing with you Gorbachev's "reforms" and how they undermined the whole thing.
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  106. @Andrei Martyanov

    Soviet Union made great fighter jet engines, yet they were unable to provide their people with iPhone equivalents of the time. This was one of the major reasons for the collapse of the USSR.
     
    Soviet Union collapsed for a completely different reasons, among which deficit of some high quality consumer goods, was secondary if not tertiary factor. Soviet Union collapsed because of its multi-cultural nature with especially Middle Asia Republics being a gigantic drain and a source of instability (with Caucasus being second). The abyss separating the culture of Russia proper and of say Uzbekistan or any other place there is unbridgeable.

    I don’t understand your contempt for iPhone.
     
    I don't have contempt to a small electronic device. I do, however, have a contempt for the idea and culture behind it--mindless consumerism and superficiality of highly uneducated (I don't mean formal degrees) people. It is a material embodiment of such "phenomena" as a Face Book--a sort of mental illness of both human and economic nature. I have some smart-phone, some Samsung, I don't even know the model, which I would have never bought if not for my beloved Alcatel flip-phone simply dying on me.

    P.S. I know what technologies go into communications. I also have a very good idea of what it takes to build a good aircraft. Do the forensic experiment and mentally model what would happen if:

    a) people go back to a regular cell-phones (basic functions, some text etc.) and no Face Book;
    b) NO commercial aviation.

    However, I do agree that measuring the “number of supercomputers” is meaningless humbug.

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  107. @bb.
    rambling it may be, but that's almost today's norm when it comes to china ;)

    I agree with everything you write, but I would just add:
    1.Savings by themselves don't tell the whole story. They might be non performing liabilities for all we know. I read somewhere that most white collar Chinese have most (all) of their savings in WMPs, which, as you write are almost exclusively subprime (real estate) investments.
    Besides, Chinese households seem to be pretty indebted. The Mercator study you link to tries to downplay it by stating a ''modest 20% of overall bank assets''(more like 25%) but I am not sure what's modest about 1/4th. From the data, one can extrapolate a 70-100% ratio of debt to income for households which puts it on par with developed nations, which is...odd.
    2.Capital controls, or closing of the financial system is a potent policy tool but there are plentiful data which show, that it is absolutely not a guarantee of greater stability. In fact, it might become a liability if the shit goes down elsewhere. It's really a question of controlling the currency, it's outflows and asset prices. This point is tightly connected to no.3
    3. FX reserves is one area where I was rumbling when I said they are lying and/or nobody knows whats really going on. Here I will just link to two long posts by Balding in chronological order (as they are somewhat contradictory) tl;dr - the FX position is probably not that strong;within the next 3-12 months, the RMB will have to start drawing primarily from PBOC reserves rather than bank positions
    -http://www.baldingsworld.com/2017/06/30/how-chinese-banks-lowering-foreign-debt-facilitating-outflows/
    -http://www.baldingsworld.com/2017/07/17/is-the-pboc-fudging-fx-reserve-numbers/

    At the end of the day, if borrowers cannot repay their loans, savers won’t be able to access their savings, and there will a domestic financial crisis rather than a foreign capital outflow crisis.

    I share with you the desire to see a strong China a vis US but I am afraid the credit bubble cannot be contained for much longer and it's now a question of who dug himself into a deeper hole. The US and China run correlated monetary policies for many years but now will need to diverge.

    On a sidenote: the Chinese spend a lot on many things, including supercomputers and whatnot..capital accumulation is how they grow GDP. I would count publishing in papers as capital accumulation not human capital, as it seems, what they are interested in is the numbers, not results. But how they do GDP accounting is not so straightforward. Spending levels, at least here, even tough I still would call it meaningless in many cases, we have some standards and some common denominators, but China? Also, what do they do with all the supercomputers? Is it AliPay and WeChat calculating your social score?(that shit is scary btw)

    “””what do they do with all the supercomputers?”””

    Believe it or not, wind farm modellings. BBC on site doco http://www.bbc.com/future/story/20170621-meet-the-worlds-most-powerful-computer

    And the military researchers whinged about having no access to adequate supercomputers for modelling hypersonic vehicles. http://www.scmp.com/tech/science-research/article/1773421/chinese-supercomputer-too-slow-compete-race-hypersonic-weapons

    “””But Ye’s paper revealed that top priority weapons research did not always get access to the best supercomputers. Some mainland computer scientists said that machines such as the Tianhe-2 were not created to meet specific needs, but to win a place on the top500 list. They were “face projects”. “””

    Dispite what the SCMP said, software engineering did recognize as a notable “double first” discipline receiving special funding while supercomputers do not have a recognizable presence in the “double first” program. The supercomputer projects could be running from “petty cash”.

    As such it might appear that the Chinese strategy is not on arm race and hard confrontation but using methods similar to that of US’s SDI strategy which had driven USSR into the ground economically. China seems to be able to do things cheaper and faster. The separation of top supercomputing from the millitary might be deliberate so as not to be threatening. For security reason, military research sites tend to be further inland in places like Sichuan and Qinghai while the supercomputers are mostly at the coastal areas.

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    • Replies: @Icm2
    This is what they do with Tianhe-1. Only civilian users and applications were mentioned. The two faster supercomputers in China are probably the ones the military uses.

    http://english.cctv.com/2017/02/05/VIDEFGAJAuepjHp7WdWtLmli170205.shtml

    Tianhe-2 (the subject of the SCMP article you linked) has since been upgraded and renamed Tianhe-2A. It is now 2x faster. The military's main complaint was that it had been too slow, so presumably this is no longer a problem.

    https://www.nextplatform.com/2017/09/20/china-arms-upgraded-tianhe-2a-hybrid-supercomputer/

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  108. @reiner Tor
    It's news to me that Jews are marginal in the UK, for example.

    Anyhow, the rot has its epicenter in the US (where it became solidified between roughly 1930 and 1970 and is progressively getting only worse over time), and it was (and is still being) imported to Europe since 1945.

    There are many explanations, but regarding the role of Jews, there are only two plausible ones. One is that Jewry is an opportunistic bug, spreading the rot because it's a rotting society anyway, and would be rotting without them as well (maybe slower), and the other (promoted mostly by Kevin MacDonald) is that they are a necessary, but not sufficient condition for the ills of the west. However, even Kevin MacDonald acknowledges that exogamous whites are pretty vulnerable to the ideologies presently promoted by Jews, and that there were cases of whites creating or promoting them in the absence (or insignificant involvement of) Jews, but he thinks these were always eventually corrected. In other words, whites are and have always been unstable and prone to idiotic universalistic ideologies (sounds plausible to me), but Jews pushed us over the edge to a permanent ever more idiotic revolution.

    That Jews wield enormous pressure in the direction of rot (like they are the dominant force in Hollywood and the entertainment business in general, and they are consistently always to the left of mainstream society, and spread messages accordingly) is not a question, what is a question whether that in itself is a necessary component.

    I am not quite decided which is reality, there are serious arguments for both. I think recognizing reality is an important job for us, and we also need to recognize that reality doesn't care for our feelings - whether we like it this way or that, it could be different, and its indifferent. It also doesn't mean that any course of action would be obvious. For example the extermination of all Jews doesn't strike me as a particularly wise, advisable, moral, intelligent, or potentially successful course of action. It has been tried, and spectacularly backfired. What we do needs to be morally defensible. At least, needs to be way easier to defend than the indiscriminate extermination of millions of people, women, children, and the elderly included. I'm not quite sure if some other solution, like wholesale deportation to Israel or legal discrimination here would be a good course of action. There is a chance that a simple description and promotion of reality might work. Scientific understanding of race etc. was not very well developed when the "racist" and "anti-Semitic" description of reality was overturned by cultural Marxists (if we accept MacDonald's description, by Jews), and it might be more difficult to do a second time (if only we could get back to some kind of "racism"). It's also possible that there is simply no solution at all.

    One is that Jewry is an opportunistic bug, spreading the rot because it’s a rotting society anyway, and would be rotting without them as well (maybe slower)

    I’m inclined to think that western civilisation’s problems are due to the very nature of western civilisation since the 18th century. A large part of the problem is that Christianity went from being a positive force to being very much a negative force. Christianity became more and more feminised and more and more focused on touchy-feely emotional wallowing, it became more guilt-ridden (it could be argued that Protestantism kicked Christian guilt into overdrive), it became more obsessively universalist, and perversely combined this with too much focus on the individual (probably another result of Protestantism).

    Once Christianity was hollowed out all that was left was materialism and virtue-signalling.

    It’s possible that western civilisation corrupted the Jews, rather than the other way round. Jews abandoned their religion and their traditions and adopted the materialism of the West. They adopted the worst aspects of western civilisation, but on steroids. Most of the problems caused by Jews seem to be caused by secular Jews.

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  109. @reiner Tor
    It's news to me that Jews are marginal in the UK, for example.

    Anyhow, the rot has its epicenter in the US (where it became solidified between roughly 1930 and 1970 and is progressively getting only worse over time), and it was (and is still being) imported to Europe since 1945.

    There are many explanations, but regarding the role of Jews, there are only two plausible ones. One is that Jewry is an opportunistic bug, spreading the rot because it's a rotting society anyway, and would be rotting without them as well (maybe slower), and the other (promoted mostly by Kevin MacDonald) is that they are a necessary, but not sufficient condition for the ills of the west. However, even Kevin MacDonald acknowledges that exogamous whites are pretty vulnerable to the ideologies presently promoted by Jews, and that there were cases of whites creating or promoting them in the absence (or insignificant involvement of) Jews, but he thinks these were always eventually corrected. In other words, whites are and have always been unstable and prone to idiotic universalistic ideologies (sounds plausible to me), but Jews pushed us over the edge to a permanent ever more idiotic revolution.

    That Jews wield enormous pressure in the direction of rot (like they are the dominant force in Hollywood and the entertainment business in general, and they are consistently always to the left of mainstream society, and spread messages accordingly) is not a question, what is a question whether that in itself is a necessary component.

    I am not quite decided which is reality, there are serious arguments for both. I think recognizing reality is an important job for us, and we also need to recognize that reality doesn't care for our feelings - whether we like it this way or that, it could be different, and its indifferent. It also doesn't mean that any course of action would be obvious. For example the extermination of all Jews doesn't strike me as a particularly wise, advisable, moral, intelligent, or potentially successful course of action. It has been tried, and spectacularly backfired. What we do needs to be morally defensible. At least, needs to be way easier to defend than the indiscriminate extermination of millions of people, women, children, and the elderly included. I'm not quite sure if some other solution, like wholesale deportation to Israel or legal discrimination here would be a good course of action. There is a chance that a simple description and promotion of reality might work. Scientific understanding of race etc. was not very well developed when the "racist" and "anti-Semitic" description of reality was overturned by cultural Marxists (if we accept MacDonald's description, by Jews), and it might be more difficult to do a second time (if only we could get back to some kind of "racism"). It's also possible that there is simply no solution at all.

    even Kevin MacDonald acknowledges that exogamous whites are pretty vulnerable to the ideologies presently promoted by Jews, and that there were cases of whites creating or promoting them in the absence (or insignificant involvement of) Jews, but he thinks these were always eventually corrected.

    A lot of the silly dangerous ideas that have undermined the West are entirely the creation of the West. Like liberalism. And guys like Rousseau and John Stuart Mill propounded ludicrous ideas that did a lot of damage. The Enlightenment was when it all started to go wrong and it’s pretty difficult to blame the Enlightenment on the Jews.

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    • Replies: @iffen
    it’s pretty difficult to blame the Enlightenment on the Jews

    Cryptos! Don't forget about the cryptos!

    See how easy it is.
    , @reiner Tor

    The Enlightenment was when it all started to go wrong
     
    Many people think that, but I’m far from convinced. Eventually it corrected itself, and the Darwinist currents in society by the second half of the 19th century didn’t exactly point to racial quotas for blacks or unlimited immigration for Africans and Middle Easterners (or Mexicans in the USA context). Something happened in the 1930s and especially after the Second World War which led to the likely downfall of our civilization and surrendering our continents, and it surely didn’t follow directly from what came before.

    Blaming it all on ideological currents two centuries earlier just doesn’t cut it as a good explanation.

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  110. @Anonymous
    I agree with all of this except that they will not have any importance in film, literature, and culture.

    Japan has had an enormous cultural affect on the West and so has Korea. Why would China not also have an impact? If you are saying they will not have as good music as America and the UK, that I believe.

    But they will absolutely will have a huge cultural impact as they progress in their own way. China already has a cultural impact from its past accomplishments, I think this will go up over time.

    I think the key point you made is that Chinese youth are optimists. They see that they can become millionaires if they just apply themselves. Millenials in America are a total joke. They are narcissists and they will get their lunch eaten by the Chinese.

    I agree with all of this except that they will not have any importance in film, literature, and culture.

    Japan has had an enormous cultural affect on the West and so has Korea. Why would China not also have an impact?

    I hope you’re right. China’s biggest long-term danger is being swamped by American culture. To survive China will need to develop some pop culture muscle. Being able to build supercomputers won’t save you when your young people embrace the decadent cultural values of the West.

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  111. @dux.ie
    """what do they do with all the supercomputers?"""

    Believe it or not, wind farm modellings. BBC on site doco http://www.bbc.com/future/story/20170621-meet-the-worlds-most-powerful-computer

    And the military researchers whinged about having no access to adequate supercomputers for modelling hypersonic vehicles. http://www.scmp.com/tech/science-research/article/1773421/chinese-supercomputer-too-slow-compete-race-hypersonic-weapons

    “””But Ye’s paper revealed that top priority weapons research did not always get access to the best supercomputers. Some mainland computer scientists said that machines such as the Tianhe-2 were not created to meet specific needs, but to win a place on the top500 list. They were “face projects”. “””

    Dispite what the SCMP said, software engineering did recognize as a notable "double first" discipline receiving special funding while supercomputers do not have a recognizable presence in the "double first" program. The supercomputer projects could be running from "petty cash".

    As such it might appear that the Chinese strategy is not on arm race and hard confrontation but using methods similar to that of US’s SDI strategy which had driven USSR into the ground economically. China seems to be able to do things cheaper and faster. The separation of top supercomputing from the millitary might be deliberate so as not to be threatening. For security reason, military research sites tend to be further inland in places like Sichuan and Qinghai while the supercomputers are mostly at the coastal areas.

    This is what they do with Tianhe-1. Only civilian users and applications were mentioned. The two faster supercomputers in China are probably the ones the military uses.

    http://english.cctv.com/2017/02/05/VIDEFGAJAuepjHp7WdWtLmli170205.shtml

    Tianhe-2 (the subject of the SCMP article you linked) has since been upgraded and renamed Tianhe-2A. It is now 2x faster. The military’s main complaint was that it had been too slow, so presumably this is no longer a problem.

    https://www.nextplatform.com/2017/09/20/china-arms-upgraded-tianhe-2a-hybrid-supercomputer/

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  112. @Andrei Martyanov

    Tell me how much of a market share does the yota phone have? Must mean the pride of Russian bloggers everywhere phone is not garbage no?
     
    That is why any discussion of serious issues with you is a waste of time. You probably have degree in "humanities" and never worked a day in serious industry.

    In other words, you have no response so you will have to take your ball and go home.

    Russia Stronk!

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  113. Anonymous • Disclaimer says:
    @Andrei Martyanov

    Excerpt from a review of the Yoda-phone:
     
    Good. I don't care about Yota-phone, I merely pointed out that Russia also has smart-phone. China manufactures cars--they suck, but China still makes them. Is this a good illustration of point?

    Actually, you were the one that pointed out the completely arbitrary idea that a nation is not stronk until it has 5th generation engines.

    Smart phone was just an arbitrary counter example to show you how silly your example was.

    China might not make good cars now, but Japan and Korea also made shitty cars at one point. So again, you keep bringing up arbitrary ideas.

    Keep in mind that Russia brings in massive revenue from selling resources that they can put into jet engine development. Another good thing for Russia is that they have a lot of Jewish admixture in its history which explains why there are Russians with exceptional minds.

    Good for Russia. But it is still just one indicator that doesn’t mean anything.

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    • Replies: @Andrei Martyanov

    Actually, you were the one that pointed out the completely arbitrary idea that a nation is not stronk until it has 5th generation engines.
     
    Obviously being an anonymous troll you completely perverted the meaning, so:

    1. You may educate yourself on some key issues of what constitutes a real power here (see some points listed there);

    http://www.unz.com/article/the-russo-chinese-alliance-explained/

    2. Nation which can not produce world class aerospace, naval, sensors, other military and dual purpose technology, which requires a world-class expertise and industry is not really "strong". China is not there, at least not yet. When it will get there--I'll write a huge article.

    Good for Russia. But it is still just one indicator that doesn’t mean anything.
     
    Sure, nothing really matters as long as a bunch of humanities-"educated" hipsters can discuss smart-phones and computer games--those surely mean a lot. I will leave it to you to decide, if ever in China, which aircraft you would choose to fly for business (or leisure) Boeing-made or COMAC C 919, granted that it will at some point start flying normal trials, forget regular commercial use, not PR flights--once in a 6 months.
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  114. Anonymous • Disclaimer says:
    @Andrei Martyanov

    I find this all funny: in my view, the Chinese simply are unstoppable. Manufacturing? Pooh… They will have flying saucers at the time everybody here is still be rambling about this or that engine.
     
    No, they will not. All their space programs: from rocketry to even BeiDou GPS are totally derivative from Soviet/Russian and European (GALILEO) and are late and sub-par. But the question is not even this: the MAIN question for China is--will PLAN be able to provide for China, who is still largely dependent on SLOC (Shipping Lanes Of Communications) and even with One Belt, One Road coming to fruition she will remain dependent on it, a reliable and sustainable Sea Control required for such a trade. The answer is unequivocal NO. Unless the United States goes down in flames tomorrow and world ocean suddenly is vacated for taking Chinese Navy will remain generation or two behind both technologically and operationally behind US Navy, even if to consider US Navy's many very real problems. China is a minor league here, especially when one takes a look at the world-class and massive US Navy's submarine force, which can decimate largely sub-par Chinese Navy if need be beyond first island chain. I was asked some time ago about China and Japan realistically going at it because of the islands dispute--I repeat my answer: Japan's first class submarine force will simply sink any force PLAN will decide to deploy beyond this first island chain.

    Now comes this very interesting question: how difficult it is to build a world-class navy? I will say just that: on several dozens orders of magnitude more complex than manufacture some shitty smart-phone or assemble SONY TV set. So, China is not only stoppable but for now she still didn't produce any tangible strategic, operational or technological achievement where it matters which would give reasons to state otherwise. But there is more to this issue, which unfolds as we speak--take Russia out of Chinese equation and anyone in the US with a half-decent brain would know what to do with China. Another matter that there are no such people in US anymore and China should count her blessings for having Russia reliably covering her strategic rear. Yet, even with that--I would love to hear anyone's (especially from "specialists" in smart-phones) how long would it take for US Navy to lock up PLAN in its bases. And this is just one of very many factors which must be considered when stating on how "unstoppable" are Chinese.

    Here you are really off your rocker.

    China does not have a world class Navy, lots of countries build better ships including countries like France. What’s your point?

    Are you trying to imply that America will block off Chinese sea lanes to cripple its industries? This is an act of war. While I have no doubt the Chinese navy would lose that battle, the end result would be nuclear war. Not just a naval battle. So to imply that sea lanes would be interrupted is just a fantasy.

    Also, I don’t see China as the weaker partner in the Russia/China alliance at all. Russia benefits as much if not more from the relationship than China does.

    Russia has stronger military tech, but China has better capital markets and manufacturing base. The truth is both countries rely on each other for defense and if either was toppled by the West the other would be sure to fall.

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    • Replies: @Andrei Martyanov

    While I have no doubt the Chinese navy would lose that battle, the end result would be nuclear war.
     
    You really have no grasp of military issues whatsoever. Repeating stupid pop-media cliches pretty much sums it up. Get educated.

    Russia has stronger military tech, but China has better capital markets and manufacturing base. The truth is both countries rely on each other for defense and if either was toppled by the West the other would be sure to fall.
     
    It is much-much more complex than that, this is not to speak of the fact of China being more dependent on US than you may think. But again, explaining this to ignoramuses who talk about capital markets is a waste of time. Continue to live in your bubble.
    , @Kimppis
    And WTF are you talking about? China doesn't have a world class navy with by far the second strongest navy in the world by 2020? 25 brand new Aegis-class destroyers, Type 055s? What year is this? Do some research, ffs. This isn't 2005 anymore.

    And Andrei's nonsense about China's submarine fleet, god...

    I ALREADY TOLD YOU EARLIER:

    China has atleast 40 modern diesel subs, while Japan has less than 20. Also, Japan doesn't have any nuclear submarines at all. WTF man, WTF!!

    Also just stop repeating the tropes about Chinese nuclear submarines. The new ones aren't even that bad. The frigging ONI chart is old as fuck, it was published before the first Type 093 was even launched and the newer ones look outwardly considerably different (i.e. improved), and the Type 095-class is almost ready.

    Wow, you're really are one helluva Russia Stronk expert.
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  115. @inertial
    Megan McArdle recently had a good post about the dangers of using hard metrics to evaluate performance in soft fields like education and health care. No matter what the metrics are people learn to game them. This applies to science and especially Chinese science. I worked with Chinese and I know that they are world champions in gaming "objective" metrics.

    For example, increasing share of high-impact academic publications sounds impressive but I would like to take a closer look at the citations. Do Chinese increase their citation counts by citing each other incessantly? Worth checking out.

    unfortunately, the cross-citation shenanigans is not only an issue in China, but also in the EU and US as well and what’s worse, it goes on in high level fields such as particle physics and biotech. Check out the blog post by Sabine Hossenfelder I linked to above:

    “Ultimately, “all the money that was thrown at breast cancer created more problems than success,” Visco says. What seemed to drive many of the scientists was the desire to “get above the fold on the front page of the New York Times,” not to figure out how to end breast cancer. It seemed to her that creativity was being stifled as researchers displayed “a lemming effect,” chasing abundant research dollars as they rushed from one hot but ultimately fruitless topic to another. “We got tired of seeing so many people build their careers around one gene or one protein,” she says.”
    (http://backreaction.blogspot.sk/2017/12/research-perversions-are-spreading-you.html)

    I am not even starting with problems, such as how much money was wasted on studies which use p-hacking to get ‘proofs’. Andrew Gelman has a whole blog about statistical corruption/dishonesty/misuse/incompetence
    (http://andrewgelman.com/)

    I would not be surprised if the situation in China was orders of magnitude worse than here, because their strategy seems to be: Throw money at stuff first, make due diligence….never?

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  116. @jbwilson24
    Look, I’m generally quite pro-Chinese. My father is from Hong Kong, half of my friends are Hong Kong Chinese, and I feel more comfortable there than in many other places (despite not speaking the language).

    I’m delighted to see the rise of China as a scientific and engineering world power. China is merely reclaiming its rightful place as one of the world’s leading civilizations.

    Having said that, I also have some reservations about a lot of the asian ‘super students’ that come to the USA. There’s a lot of parental and peer pressure on them to succeed, which generally means that they are forced into fields instead of being drawn to them out of interest.

    My favorite question at career fairs is lobbed at Chinese students when they come up to me and say “I am really interested in machine learning”.

    I ask “why?”

    They invariably relapse into shocked science. I follow that up with “because it is a hot area and you want a job. Have you ever read other areas of AI like constraint satisfaction, local search, representation and reasoning…”. Yes, I’m a bit of a jerk, but I’m trying to drive home a point. Very few actually go into the sciences out of intellectual curiosity in the sciences (e.g., McCulloch, who went to a library and started reading the Principia Mathematica for the hell of it).

    None of them can give me a suitable answer for why they are interested in the field. Big red flag.

    On the whole, I find Asian students tend to cheat like mad. They study in groups, cheat on assignments, and cheat on exams. I had a rather famous prof in a PhD-level computational geometry class admonish his class on account of the Chinese contingent and their penchant for copying the answers to homework problems out of books. They would go research the answers and regurgitate them, which was the last thing that the professor wanted to see. (Recent research appears to back up the cheating claim, by the way).

    I’ve had students threaten suicide in course evaluation forms. Not as a vindictive measure, but because there is so much pressure on them to succeed that they take failure very badly.

    This is not a reflection on intelligence or the like, but on the cultural trappings. Russians, Serbs, Ukrainians and others from the former Soviet States tend to cheat as well, but they don’t have the same parental pressure.

    In my 7 or so years teaching university courses, I simply have never seen a Chinese student who was intellectually curious and willing to waste time chasing a topic for mere intellectual curiosity. Hence, I’m not convinced that they are anywhere equal to the eccentric Jewish and European scientists that tended to do the more groundbreaking work. The next paradigm shift may come from China, but the jury is out. At ‘normal’ science, the Chinese discipline definitely pays off.

    One of my professor(chinese ethnic) shared, he was Top2 during his study in MIT. So he visited that Top1 guy to find out why. That guy told he all he want is to spend time enjoying his research in lab.

    That make the different between driven by desire to achieve vs interest. So that Prof adviced us to take up subject that interest us only. Didn’t we always know our hobby better than out hated job?

    China has just finished its stage1(base preparation), starting stage2( innovation on priority fields like AI, semicon,..). When they attained parity with US/EU/Japan to support stage3(interest based) it will be very interesting to see emerging of top scientists like Qian Xuesen, but in China’s number!

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  117. @Anonymous
    Here you are really off your rocker.

    China does not have a world class Navy, lots of countries build better ships including countries like France. What's your point?

    Are you trying to imply that America will block off Chinese sea lanes to cripple its industries? This is an act of war. While I have no doubt the Chinese navy would lose that battle, the end result would be nuclear war. Not just a naval battle. So to imply that sea lanes would be interrupted is just a fantasy.

    Also, I don't see China as the weaker partner in the Russia/China alliance at all. Russia benefits as much if not more from the relationship than China does.

    Russia has stronger military tech, but China has better capital markets and manufacturing base. The truth is both countries rely on each other for defense and if either was toppled by the West the other would be sure to fall.

    While I have no doubt the Chinese navy would lose that battle, the end result would be nuclear war.

    You really have no grasp of military issues whatsoever. Repeating stupid pop-media cliches pretty much sums it up. Get educated.

    Russia has stronger military tech, but China has better capital markets and manufacturing base. The truth is both countries rely on each other for defense and if either was toppled by the West the other would be sure to fall.

    It is much-much more complex than that, this is not to speak of the fact of China being more dependent on US than you may think. But again, explaining this to ignoramuses who talk about capital markets is a waste of time. Continue to live in your bubble.

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  118. @Anonymous
    Actually, you were the one that pointed out the completely arbitrary idea that a nation is not stronk until it has 5th generation engines.

    Smart phone was just an arbitrary counter example to show you how silly your example was.

    China might not make good cars now, but Japan and Korea also made shitty cars at one point. So again, you keep bringing up arbitrary ideas.

    Keep in mind that Russia brings in massive revenue from selling resources that they can put into jet engine development. Another good thing for Russia is that they have a lot of Jewish admixture in its history which explains why there are Russians with exceptional minds.

    Good for Russia. But it is still just one indicator that doesn't mean anything.

    Actually, you were the one that pointed out the completely arbitrary idea that a nation is not stronk until it has 5th generation engines.

    Obviously being an anonymous troll you completely perverted the meaning, so:

    1. You may educate yourself on some key issues of what constitutes a real power here (see some points listed there);

    http://www.unz.com/article/the-russo-chinese-alliance-explained/

    2. Nation which can not produce world class aerospace, naval, sensors, other military and dual purpose technology, which requires a world-class expertise and industry is not really “strong”. China is not there, at least not yet. When it will get there–I’ll write a huge article.

    Good for Russia. But it is still just one indicator that doesn’t mean anything.

    Sure, nothing really matters as long as a bunch of humanities-”educated” hipsters can discuss smart-phones and computer games–those surely mean a lot. I will leave it to you to decide, if ever in China, which aircraft you would choose to fly for business (or leisure) Boeing-made or COMAC C 919, granted that it will at some point start flying normal trials, forget regular commercial use, not PR flights–once in a 6 months.

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  119. @dfordoom

    even Kevin MacDonald acknowledges that exogamous whites are pretty vulnerable to the ideologies presently promoted by Jews, and that there were cases of whites creating or promoting them in the absence (or insignificant involvement of) Jews, but he thinks these were always eventually corrected.
     
    A lot of the silly dangerous ideas that have undermined the West are entirely the creation of the West. Like liberalism. And guys like Rousseau and John Stuart Mill propounded ludicrous ideas that did a lot of damage. The Enlightenment was when it all started to go wrong and it's pretty difficult to blame the Enlightenment on the Jews.

    it’s pretty difficult to blame the Enlightenment on the Jews

    Cryptos! Don’t forget about the cryptos!

    See how easy it is.

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    • Replies: @dfordoom

    Cryptos! Don’t forget about the cryptos!

    See how easy it is.
     
    And Protestantism is a Judaizing heresy. So the Reformation was a Jewish plot! Engineered by people like (((Martin Luther))).

    It's not just easy, it's fun!

    Our next project is to point out how the fall of the Roman Empire in the West was engineered by the Jews. Those damned (((Ostrogoths))).
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  120. @inertial

    Soviet Union collapsed for a completely different reasons
     
    No, I don't mean the separation of USSR into the constituent republic. That was the end result of the economic and social breakdown, which, in turn, was brought about by moral collapse of the Soviet society. And universal worship of Western consumer goods (which you must remember) was a factor and a symptom of that collapse.

    (Incidentally, the Central Asian republics didn't want to leave the USSR until the last possible moment and in the end were de facto ejected.)

    I do, however, have a contempt for the idea and culture behind it–mindless consumerism and superficiality of highly uneducated (I don’t mean formal degrees) people.
     
    I am sorry but you don't get to decide what's "mindless consumerism" or "superficiality." Soviet rulers tried to do that and look where that brought them. People want stuff and people must get stuff, no matter what you and I think about it. If you don't have that, best fighter jets in the world won't help you.

    So good on China for being able to provide its people with consumer goods they desire. This is the foundation of a healthy economy. If China has that, with time it will be able develop anything else.

    (Incidentally, the Central Asian republics didn’t want to leave the USSR until the last possible moment and in the end were de facto ejected.)

    Then you are really-really badly informed on the issues of Fergana Valley and why USSR primarily went into Afghanistan. You also, never heard I guess about situation in Kazakhstan in 1980s (name Kolbin rings a bell?)

    I am sorry but you don’t get to decide what’s “mindless consumerism” or “superficiality.”

    Oh yes, I do. Not only I get to decide, I also forward my thesis about it for a public and peer-review. You want to go against this thesis–your God-given right and you will “decide” how to do it, but purely on the merit of many discussions here, I don’t think you will be able to.

    And universal worship of Western consumer goods (which you must remember) was a factor and a symptom of that collapse.

    It did exist but I can only repeat my point–it was secondary-tertiary factor. I, frankly, have no interest discussing with you Gorbachev’s “reforms” and how they undermined the whole thing.

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  121. @Icm2
    I'll provide two examples of promising recent cultural products from China (one video game currently in development, one highly acclaimed anime series still in production):

    https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=3b9H0k_oBn4

    The development of this game transitioned from being a Skyrim mod to a full-fledged standalone RPG based on Unreal Engine 4. More info and released screenshots/video can be found on the developer's Weibo: https://weibo.com/u/1587945737

    https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=qBzUI8oivW4

    This animation series produced by Tencent Pictures is based off a popular webnovel about e-sports. Otakus worldwide had a positive reception to the first season, which was released last year.

    Eh, I’m not going to be convinced on the idea that mobile games are a technological leapfrog in any way – various factors(screen size, controls, etc.) serve to cripple the complexity that mobiles can provide in their offerings. League of Legends remains the most popular game in China, for example, and that would be impossible to reproduce on a mobile platform.

    Its good to hear that there is more homegrown production of other work, though, and hopefully a source for gradual internal experience and buildup. I haven’t really seen much indie work, but hopefully that will also change. Is there an active open source community now? I know that GitHub was unblocked but it should not have been censored in the first place. Its toxic to the development of technological skill and innovation.

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    • Replies: @Icm2
    League of Legends is not the most popular game in China. The most popular game in China is actually Glory of Kings, a mobile game by Tencent whose concept is essentially the same as LoL. You should check out some in-game footage - the overall gameplay experience including graphics is actually somewhat comparable to LoL (also owned by Tencent), which never had spectacular graphics anyway since it was designed to be compatible with even the lowest-end desktop systems.

    You misunderstand what I meant by technological leapfrog. It does not necessarily imply superior complexity or refinement - and even by those metrics, Chinese mobile games manage to deliver a level of experience that successfully draws profit from the country's massive market of casual gamers, who far outnumber "hardcore" console or PC gamers unlike in the West.

    , @Icm2
    The open source community is still greatly lacking in China, but there are promising signs:

    https://www.linuxfoundation.org/blog/tencent-and-why-open-source-is-about-to-explode-in-china/

    https://medium.com/inside-machine-learning/is-open-source-alive-in-china-3f606aafbd3b

    Despite this, overall innovation across all sectors is growing at an unprecedented pace. The country's drive for increased innovation somehow manages to press on successfully even in the absence of the benefits of open source. I do not see much of an open source community in the other East Asian nations (and historically open source was rarely embraced anywhere in the world), so perhaps this isn't so surprising.

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  122. @Anonymous
    I'm serious. Baldness sucks, and after decades of false hopes and promises from the US and the West about a cure, Chinese science would get a lot more respect if it found a cure soon.

    Just goggle Chinese TCM treatment for bold & hair loss.

    There are quite many traditional hair growing treatments with long history in Taiwan, HK, China, Singapore, Malaysia you find plenty of such treatment. One famous brand is Beijing 101. See if you have any luck.

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  123. @Thorfinnsson
    China's relative level of economic development is around where South Korea was twenty-five years ago, or Japan fifty years ago.

    So your predictions are likely correct.

    On one point in particular however:

    5. No good car from China;
     
    There won't be a good car from China with a conventional powertrain, that's for sure.

    But the story might be different in the matter of electric cars.

    China is the world's largest electric car market (sales comparable to North America and Western Europe combined), and the electric cars sold in China come overwhelmingly from Chinese manufacturers.

    BYD Auto is the world's largest electric car manufacturer, and unlike Tesla it is profitable. Berkshire Hathaway is an early investor.

    Of course, I'm sure much of the value chain extends outside of China. But the same is true of General Motors' electric vehicles (the power electronics in the Chevrolet Volt & Bolt are sourced from LG of South Korea).

    On a different note China appears to be leading in some emerging technologies such as quantum computing and genetic engineering. This should not be ignored.

    China is smart to go straight for EV, bypassing conventional power train it far lagging. EV power performance and simple design motors certainly is much better, with improving battery charging time and mileage breakthrough, will soon reach a level for practical mass usage to replace non EV.

    Volvo certainly has very good design & technology esp in safety and SUV, now acquired by China Geely, don’t see why it cannot produce good car, & impressive EV. Audi is also transferring much technology to its biggest long time market in China. China also takeover Malaysia Proton, which owned British Espirit, renowned for its leading sport car design and fine tuning.

    If look is all what people need to be good car, it can be quickly done by engaging some top designers from Europe. Russia has its new plane interior design by France designer entirely, its impressive.

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  124. @Andrei Martyanov

    Tell me about India’s military “negotiating” practices. Please expand on it.
     
    1. As a simple courtesy goes, I would have been more impressed with you explaining first from what ass did you pull this preposterous made up number of 40 hours? This fact alone already puts you into the category of trolls with no actual knowledge of the subject matter and who deliberately lie and BS to make their completely false point.

    2. India's negotiating practice was and is known for its classic erratic behavior of trying penny pinch by "wearing down" negotiating partners, as Dassault learned the hard way. I will go no further with that since I don't think you are worth any explaining on any serious matters.

    Agreed. I have deals with India big company, asking price is 10% of my cost.

    When India wanted to build 1st class airport in Capital New Delhi, it insisted Singapore company put in contract half the construction time(huge compensation loss). So Singapore company withdraw. Smart British went in, delivered a shit. I was there, all system down.. ….tones of shit for $5Bil.

    Russia was smart to find away make India pay dearly for its aircraft carrier… so jet engine 40hrs is possible for the request price.

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  125. @Andrei Martyanov

    That literally doesn’t mean anything.
     
    Sure, for Wall-Street "educated" economists it doesn't. But it does. It is, however, very difficult to explain to people who use smart-phone "argument" that, as an example< Russia does produce (manufactures) own processors while China merely packs someone's "crystals" into the box. People who have a clue they know implications. But since your horizons are limited by smart-phones, here is a Russian one:

    https://yotaphone.com/gb-en/

    It is impossible to explain to new generation of people who never dealt with modern industry, such as you, what a massive difference in technological cycle prowess between producing a jet engine and of some shitty smart-phone is. I'll give you one hint--Chinese metallurgy is not a world-class and that is why their aircraft, submarines and other things of this nature are very sub-par.

    Regarding China inability to do semiconductor electronics, i don’t agreed. How much do you know in semicon?

    In 1990′s, they could reverse engineering any chips you like by slicing layers. Put this aside, Singapore Chartered transferred a 0.18um line to China which was then one of best. If China can’t do IC design, what is that multi billions line doing there. They had already setup fab lines since 1980, but West was selling obsolete technology at top price purposely as sanction. China couldn’t make the entire production chain themselves without economic of scale. Recently they announced their determination to be self reliance to avoid US threat, so they will produce entire complete chain from raw material fab till packaging and testors, every single equipments. All China gov sensitive computers already using indigenous CPU set, knowing US likely embedded something in Intel/AMD chipset(which just been expose recently).

    When US blocked Intel chip sales to China for Supercomputer usage, within one year China produce its own CPU with even more powerful supercomputer (rank No1&2). This is no mean feat. You can’t achieve this just by simply assemble some chips, otherwise US/EU/Japan will do it to regain Top100 supercomputer that China dominate now.

    Personally i have a huge processor ASIC/ SOC project involved China engineer. When i presented to US, they couldn’t believed Asia could do such big complex design, as only few like IBM could. And these was achieved with only two unimpressive China engineers(without a big team to help testing), they don’t even understand English, torment by our poor translation, inferrior design tool, and supplier false factory data. They are genius to accomplish under such conditions. What’s more to say with their top engineers back home using familiar language and design tools.

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  126. @dux.ie
    In China the mere fact that by policy there are only about 9.527% university graduates means that the minimum IQ for local university admission is about 126 and about 146 for STEM courses. Those oversea Chinese university students are mostly either children of well off parents having a long oversea holidays or those that have IQ less than the above stated amount and cannot get into their local universities for courses of their choices and they have to spend houndred of thousand dollars to get into oversea universities. An IQ of 120 with proficency in English will have no problem getting into oversea STEM courses, 110 for business courses, or 103 for the easier courses. Thus the IQ profile of the Chinese oversea students is mostly a bell curve with truncated upper and lower tails.

    Furthermore, even USNews has credited that China's Tsinghua Uni as the "Best Global Universities for Computer Science and Engineering",

    https://www.usnews.com/education/best-global-universities/computer-science
    https://www.usnews.com/education/best-global-universities/search?region=&subject=engineering&name=

    and China has another two more universities in the top ten for both categories. Thus they really do not have to go oversea to better themselves.

    Beside, in a country where normal residents cannot move to another districts without permission, do you think that the brightest students are allowed to leave the country?? Thus the US academics are looking at a bias sample of Chinese students.

    My China friends are always telling me the Top students are groomed in China, 2nd grade goes to Ivy League, 3rd grade end up in Singapore NUS / NTU or Asia uni. This is also what I heard from China undergraduate directly too. Did anyone know if this is true?

    Read More
    • Replies: @dux.ie
    A quick check with sample of 1. Recently there are news about the Chinese electromagnetic aircraft launch system (EMALS) and the Integrated Electrical Propulsion System (IEPS) for naval warships, and the designer Rear Admiral Ma Weiming, http://www.scmp.com/news/china/diplomacy-defence/article/2098986/why-chinese-submarines-could-soon-be-quieter-us-ones

    The CV of Ma Weiming, http://www.scmp.com/news/china/diplomacy-defence/article/2099006/top-engineer-key-chinas-dream-having-worlds-most

    """Ma, who hails from Yangzhou in Jiangsu, graduated from the PLA Naval University of Engineering in Wuhan, Hubei, in 1987 and elected to teach there. He earned a PhD in electrical engineering from Tsinghua University in 1996 and went on to become the country’s youngest engineering academician five years later. A specialist in maritime propulsion, electrical engineering and related fields, Ma has cultivated more than 400 masters and doctoral students at the naval university since the late 1980s."""

    Look like he was not educated from oversea university. So it could be true for the top talents for top secret projects. However for university presidents and key laboraty directors where international networkings are important most of them are educated overseas. https://unchronicle.un.org/article/chinas-return-migration-and-its-impact-home-development

    """The Thousand Talents Programme launched in 2008 has attracted more than
    3,300 high-quality professionals from abroad to China’s key areas. …
    78 per cent of the (university) presidents, 63 per cent of PhD advisers …
    72 per cent of directors of key laboratories are returnees."""

    What is interesting is that the sum of the top 5 country WFC losts is roughly equal to the sum of top 5 country (e.g. the BRICS) gains. This could be the results of the reversed musical chairs that ends up with plenty of vacant positions in some countries and their declines in WFC scores.
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  127. @Daniel Chieh
    Eh, I'm not going to be convinced on the idea that mobile games are a technological leapfrog in any way - various factors(screen size, controls, etc.) serve to cripple the complexity that mobiles can provide in their offerings. League of Legends remains the most popular game in China, for example, and that would be impossible to reproduce on a mobile platform.

    Its good to hear that there is more homegrown production of other work, though, and hopefully a source for gradual internal experience and buildup. I haven't really seen much indie work, but hopefully that will also change. Is there an active open source community now? I know that GitHub was unblocked but it should not have been censored in the first place. Its toxic to the development of technological skill and innovation.

    League of Legends is not the most popular game in China. The most popular game in China is actually Glory of Kings, a mobile game by Tencent whose concept is essentially the same as LoL. You should check out some in-game footage – the overall gameplay experience including graphics is actually somewhat comparable to LoL (also owned by Tencent), which never had spectacular graphics anyway since it was designed to be compatible with even the lowest-end desktop systems.

    You misunderstand what I meant by technological leapfrog. It does not necessarily imply superior complexity or refinement – and even by those metrics, Chinese mobile games manage to deliver a level of experience that successfully draws profit from the country’s massive market of casual gamers, who far outnumber “hardcore” console or PC gamers unlike in the West.

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  128. @Daniel Chieh
    Eh, I'm not going to be convinced on the idea that mobile games are a technological leapfrog in any way - various factors(screen size, controls, etc.) serve to cripple the complexity that mobiles can provide in their offerings. League of Legends remains the most popular game in China, for example, and that would be impossible to reproduce on a mobile platform.

    Its good to hear that there is more homegrown production of other work, though, and hopefully a source for gradual internal experience and buildup. I haven't really seen much indie work, but hopefully that will also change. Is there an active open source community now? I know that GitHub was unblocked but it should not have been censored in the first place. Its toxic to the development of technological skill and innovation.

    The open source community is still greatly lacking in China, but there are promising signs:

    https://www.linuxfoundation.org/blog/tencent-and-why-open-source-is-about-to-explode-in-china/

    https://medium.com/inside-machine-learning/is-open-source-alive-in-china-3f606aafbd3b

    Despite this, overall innovation across all sectors is growing at an unprecedented pace. The country’s drive for increased innovation somehow manages to press on successfully even in the absence of the benefits of open source. I do not see much of an open source community in the other East Asian nations (and historically open source was rarely embraced anywhere in the world), so perhaps this isn’t so surprising.

    Read More
    • Replies: @Daniel Chieh
    This is indeed promising. Hopefully the OSS community continues to grow, as I think that is a particular stimuli for innovation and the ability to create larger pieces of software.
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  129. @dfordoom

    even Kevin MacDonald acknowledges that exogamous whites are pretty vulnerable to the ideologies presently promoted by Jews, and that there were cases of whites creating or promoting them in the absence (or insignificant involvement of) Jews, but he thinks these were always eventually corrected.
     
    A lot of the silly dangerous ideas that have undermined the West are entirely the creation of the West. Like liberalism. And guys like Rousseau and John Stuart Mill propounded ludicrous ideas that did a lot of damage. The Enlightenment was when it all started to go wrong and it's pretty difficult to blame the Enlightenment on the Jews.

    The Enlightenment was when it all started to go wrong

    Many people think that, but I’m far from convinced. Eventually it corrected itself, and the Darwinist currents in society by the second half of the 19th century didn’t exactly point to racial quotas for blacks or unlimited immigration for Africans and Middle Easterners (or Mexicans in the USA context). Something happened in the 1930s and especially after the Second World War which led to the likely downfall of our civilization and surrendering our continents, and it surely didn’t follow directly from what came before.

    Blaming it all on ideological currents two centuries earlier just doesn’t cut it as a good explanation.

    Read More
    • Replies: @German_reader
    The Enlightenment itself was hardly "antiracist" anyway in the modern sense, a lot of Enlightenment thinkers like Hume or Kant are accused of racism nowadays after all, indeed of having actually founded racism in the modern sense.
    A few years ago when I read Gibbon's Decline and fall I came upon this striking passage (from the early 1780s):
    https://archive.org/stream/historyofdecl03gibb#page/52/mode/2up/search/guinea
    which combines humanitarian revulsion at the slave trade with musings about the "obvious inferiority of their [=blacks'] mental faculties".
    The Enlightenment gets blamed for a lot of things both by "racists" and "antiracists"...rather misguided imo.
    , @dfordoom

    Something happened in the 1930s and especially after the Second World War which led to the likely downfall of our civilization and surrendering our continents, and it surely didn’t follow directly from what came before.
     
    Perhaps not directly.

    I don't think civilisations collapse from a single blow. They collapse because they've been steadily undermined over a long period, often by multiple factors. The Enlightenment was the first major blow at the foundations, and it left those foundations permanently weakened.

    The second major blow was the First World War. It was impossible to feel entirely positive about western civilisation after that bloodbath.

    The Second World War was another blow. All the sacrifices made and what did we end up with? The permanent threat of nuclear annihilation and never-ending wars.

    The Great Depression didn't help.

    And thanks to the Enlightenment people no longer had religious faith to fall back on. The Enlightenment transformed Christianity from a universal western religion into a minor and steadily declining sect.
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  130. @reiner Tor

    The Enlightenment was when it all started to go wrong
     
    Many people think that, but I’m far from convinced. Eventually it corrected itself, and the Darwinist currents in society by the second half of the 19th century didn’t exactly point to racial quotas for blacks or unlimited immigration for Africans and Middle Easterners (or Mexicans in the USA context). Something happened in the 1930s and especially after the Second World War which led to the likely downfall of our civilization and surrendering our continents, and it surely didn’t follow directly from what came before.

    Blaming it all on ideological currents two centuries earlier just doesn’t cut it as a good explanation.

    The Enlightenment itself was hardly “antiracist” anyway in the modern sense, a lot of Enlightenment thinkers like Hume or Kant are accused of racism nowadays after all, indeed of having actually founded racism in the modern sense.
    A few years ago when I read Gibbon’s Decline and fall I came upon this striking passage (from the early 1780s):

    https://archive.org/stream/historyofdecl03gibb#page/52/mode/2up/search/guinea

    which combines humanitarian revulsion at the slave trade with musings about the “obvious inferiority of their [=blacks'] mental faculties”.
    The Enlightenment gets blamed for a lot of things both by “racists” and “antiracists”…rather misguided imo.

    Read More
    • Replies: @reiner Tor
    And the Enlightenment was hardly a unified movement anyway. It was an amalgamation of many movements and ideologies, some of which contradicted some others.
    , @reiner Tor

    combines humanitarian revulsion at the slave trade with musings about the “obvious inferiority of their [=blacks'] mental faculties”.
     
    Like Darwin in The Voyage of the Beagle.
    , @dfordoom

    The Enlightenment itself was hardly “antiracist” anyway in the modern sense, a lot of Enlightenment thinkers like Hume or Kant are accused of racism nowadays after all, indeed of having actually founded racism in the modern sense.
     
    The Enlightenment was neither racist nor antiracist. It was all about scepticism, and scepticism is a slow poison that eventually kills civilisation.
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  131. @Bardon Kaldian

    I agree with all of this except that they will not have any importance in film, literature, and culture.

    Japan has had an enormous cultural affect on the West and so has Korea. Why would China not also have an impact? If you are saying they will not have as good music as America and the UK, that I believe.

    But they will absolutely will have a huge cultural impact as they progress in their own way. China already has a cultural impact from its past accomplishments, I think this will go up over time.
     
    This is a difficult question & I can only offer my (subjective) opinion.

    I have assimilated some (high) Japanese & Chinese culture and I don't see it being of universal importance: one of four classical Chinese novels (Dream of the Red Chamber), then Lady Murasaki and Sei Shonagon. Later, some Mishima. This is good, but not that good.

    Frankly, I don't see how they can compete with Euro-American great 19th/20th C writers (Goncharov, Flaubert, Whitman, Conrad, ..), let alone supreme giants like Dostoevsky or Proust.

    As for movies- true, some Japanese films are great. But, with most of Asian films the problem is this: their sensibility is different from ours (whites', Europeans') & their cultural codes are alien. I just don't understand them- and I'm not an ideological Euro-centric. For instance, thoughtful American critic Jonathan Rosenbaum has enumerated numerous-among others- Chinese movies here: https://www.alsolikelife.com/filmdiary/rosenbaum

    Just glance at 90s & 00s:

    https://www.alsolikelife.com/1990s-jonathan-rosenbaums-essential-cinema
    https://www.alsolikelife.com/20002003-jonathan-rosenbaums-1000-essential-films

    Who has seen these movies?

    And how can a (white) viewer tell the difference between imaginary Ching & Pong characters? They all look the same to me (no offense to east Asians).

    Traits of Chinese people & civilization are such that they are in most crucial areas fit for the post-modern functional technological world. In short, they are Jews without humor, but with ethno-cultural traits & position that are perfectly fitted for 21st century.

    Somehow your observation brought to mind this essay by Musil.

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  132. @TT
    My China friends are always telling me the Top students are groomed in China, 2nd grade goes to Ivy League, 3rd grade end up in Singapore NUS / NTU or Asia uni. This is also what I heard from China undergraduate directly too. Did anyone know if this is true?

    A quick check with sample of 1. Recently there are news about the Chinese electromagnetic aircraft launch system (EMALS) and the Integrated Electrical Propulsion System (IEPS) for naval warships, and the designer Rear Admiral Ma Weiming, http://www.scmp.com/news/china/diplomacy-defence/article/2098986/why-chinese-submarines-could-soon-be-quieter-us-ones

    The CV of Ma Weiming, http://www.scmp.com/news/china/diplomacy-defence/article/2099006/top-engineer-key-chinas-dream-having-worlds-most

    “””Ma, who hails from Yangzhou in Jiangsu, graduated from the PLA Naval University of Engineering in Wuhan, Hubei, in 1987 and elected to teach there. He earned a PhD in electrical engineering from Tsinghua University in 1996 and went on to become the country’s youngest engineering academician five years later. A specialist in maritime propulsion, electrical engineering and related fields, Ma has cultivated more than 400 masters and doctoral students at the naval university since the late 1980s.”””

    Look like he was not educated from oversea university. So it could be true for the top talents for top secret projects. However for university presidents and key laboraty directors where international networkings are important most of them are educated overseas. https://unchronicle.un.org/article/chinas-return-migration-and-its-impact-home-development

    “””The Thousand Talents Programme launched in 2008 has attracted more than
    3,300 high-quality professionals from abroad to China’s key areas. …
    78 per cent of the (university) presidents, 63 per cent of PhD advisers …
    72 per cent of directors of key laboratories are returnees.”””

    What is interesting is that the sum of the top 5 country WFC losts is roughly equal to the sum of top 5 country (e.g. the BRICS) gains. This could be the results of the reversed musical chairs that ends up with plenty of vacant positions in some countries and their declines in WFC scores.

    Read More
    • Replies: @TT
    Today i purposely asked a China engineer from one of top China uni. He affirmed, 1st grade compete to study in China top uni, the rest go overseas. And they won't publish top paper or patents in public for us to see. I think Russia does the same. Recently a China researcher published his breakthrough work, but was removed shortly because that dual tech can be applied for stealth fighter.

    If as what you said, IQ103 is good enough for any uni general study, then Singapore majority will qualify, considered high% of its people mean IQ is above 105 and No1 ranking in PISA. But its dropping due to low grade mass immigration.

    Your link shows NTU & NUS are top2&5 in engineering study world ranking, beating even MIT & Stanford, but I only find 3rd grade China student there, tho they usually graduated as 1st class to work a few years before moving to US/Canada. That speak alot about real cream back in China.
    , @TT
    Adm Ma actually declared China's EMALS & IEPS are better than USN. Military analyst remarked that Ma's usual cautious character has make such declaration unlikely a boast. So that will be interesting to see 'Why US should afraid of China submarine fleet?'

    http://nationalinterest.org/blog/the-buzz/why-america-should-fear-chinas-submarine-fleet-21255?page=show

    China also announced last year it had developed a multi axis precision calibrator for submarine propeling system(huge machine in picture). This is the same system Russia acquired from Japan Toshiba Heavy Ind decade ago that silent its submarines to USN great dismay. Toshiba was sanctioned for it. That may help China narrow some of its gap quickly.

    Regarding China metallurgy weakness, its nothing secret as Andrei always remark. China has admitted publicly that as its greatest constraint in its military development. Last year one article even explained in detail how China successful make single crystal fan blade for its indigenous jet engine(to withstand extreme temp & rev stress). West was blocking sales of all equipments like precise temp control for such crystalization. But they could overcome, and had good yield to the West surprise. This overcome their existing short lifespan bottle neck of indigenous jet engine, so we might see some new one appearing soon.

    Another factor is huge commercial 3D printers application, these could half the dev time to make special high precision & material parts for say J20 dev & mass production, bypassing western blockage of precision machine constraint.

    Back with huge engineering talents(1Mil new engr per year & returning overseas trained), industrial/economic prowess, gov strategic focus, the dev may be exponential faster than we expect without waiting for 2025.
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  133. @German_reader
    The Enlightenment itself was hardly "antiracist" anyway in the modern sense, a lot of Enlightenment thinkers like Hume or Kant are accused of racism nowadays after all, indeed of having actually founded racism in the modern sense.
    A few years ago when I read Gibbon's Decline and fall I came upon this striking passage (from the early 1780s):
    https://archive.org/stream/historyofdecl03gibb#page/52/mode/2up/search/guinea
    which combines humanitarian revulsion at the slave trade with musings about the "obvious inferiority of their [=blacks'] mental faculties".
    The Enlightenment gets blamed for a lot of things both by "racists" and "antiracists"...rather misguided imo.

    And the Enlightenment was hardly a unified movement anyway. It was an amalgamation of many movements and ideologies, some of which contradicted some others.

    Read More
    • Agree: German_reader
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  134. @German_reader
    The Enlightenment itself was hardly "antiracist" anyway in the modern sense, a lot of Enlightenment thinkers like Hume or Kant are accused of racism nowadays after all, indeed of having actually founded racism in the modern sense.
    A few years ago when I read Gibbon's Decline and fall I came upon this striking passage (from the early 1780s):
    https://archive.org/stream/historyofdecl03gibb#page/52/mode/2up/search/guinea
    which combines humanitarian revulsion at the slave trade with musings about the "obvious inferiority of their [=blacks'] mental faculties".
    The Enlightenment gets blamed for a lot of things both by "racists" and "antiracists"...rather misguided imo.

    combines humanitarian revulsion at the slave trade with musings about the “obvious inferiority of their [=blacks'] mental faculties”.

    Like Darwin in The Voyage of the Beagle.

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  135. @Icm2
    The open source community is still greatly lacking in China, but there are promising signs:

    https://www.linuxfoundation.org/blog/tencent-and-why-open-source-is-about-to-explode-in-china/

    https://medium.com/inside-machine-learning/is-open-source-alive-in-china-3f606aafbd3b

    Despite this, overall innovation across all sectors is growing at an unprecedented pace. The country's drive for increased innovation somehow manages to press on successfully even in the absence of the benefits of open source. I do not see much of an open source community in the other East Asian nations (and historically open source was rarely embraced anywhere in the world), so perhaps this isn't so surprising.

    This is indeed promising. Hopefully the OSS community continues to grow, as I think that is a particular stimuli for innovation and the ability to create larger pieces of software.

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  136. @iffen
    it’s pretty difficult to blame the Enlightenment on the Jews

    Cryptos! Don't forget about the cryptos!

    See how easy it is.

    Cryptos! Don’t forget about the cryptos!

    See how easy it is.

    And Protestantism is a Judaizing heresy. So the Reformation was a Jewish plot! Engineered by people like (((Martin Luther))).

    It’s not just easy, it’s fun!

    Our next project is to point out how the fall of the Roman Empire in the West was engineered by the Jews. Those damned (((Ostrogoths))).

    Read More
    • Replies: @iffen
    Our next project is to point out how the fall of the Roman Empire in the West was engineered by the Jews.

    First, (((they))) corrupted the Persians and got themselves back to Jerusalem, then they manipulated the Romans into effecting a diaspora, then they ..........

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  137. @reiner Tor

    The Enlightenment was when it all started to go wrong
     
    Many people think that, but I’m far from convinced. Eventually it corrected itself, and the Darwinist currents in society by the second half of the 19th century didn’t exactly point to racial quotas for blacks or unlimited immigration for Africans and Middle Easterners (or Mexicans in the USA context). Something happened in the 1930s and especially after the Second World War which led to the likely downfall of our civilization and surrendering our continents, and it surely didn’t follow directly from what came before.

    Blaming it all on ideological currents two centuries earlier just doesn’t cut it as a good explanation.

    Something happened in the 1930s and especially after the Second World War which led to the likely downfall of our civilization and surrendering our continents, and it surely didn’t follow directly from what came before.

    Perhaps not directly.

    I don’t think civilisations collapse from a single blow. They collapse because they’ve been steadily undermined over a long period, often by multiple factors. The Enlightenment was the first major blow at the foundations, and it left those foundations permanently weakened.

    The second major blow was the First World War. It was impossible to feel entirely positive about western civilisation after that bloodbath.

    The Second World War was another blow. All the sacrifices made and what did we end up with? The permanent threat of nuclear annihilation and never-ending wars.

    The Great Depression didn’t help.

    And thanks to the Enlightenment people no longer had religious faith to fall back on. The Enlightenment transformed Christianity from a universal western religion into a minor and steadily declining sect.

    Read More
    • Replies: @reiner Tor
    Again, there were many reasons, great instability, but it was moving back and forth close to the edge. So far it’s consistent with both explanations. Then around the middle of the 20th century it fell over the edge. Whether it fell on its own or was pushed over is an open question. Now, actually, we know that there was a push, it’s just difficult to say if it was a decisive factor, or not. It’s just not clear that it would’ve fallen without the push.

    And thanks to the Enlightenment people no longer had religious faith to fall back on.
     
    On the other hand, something like that outcome might have been inevitable. After all, science was bound to develop further, and - especially since the discovery of the theory of evolution - religion as an explanation was bound to lose its power. But as a corollary all other aspects of religion were weakened, too. I fail to see how this could have been avoided. The only way (and already an impossible one) would have been to stop the development of science. There really was no way to stop these developments.
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  138. @German_reader
    The Enlightenment itself was hardly "antiracist" anyway in the modern sense, a lot of Enlightenment thinkers like Hume or Kant are accused of racism nowadays after all, indeed of having actually founded racism in the modern sense.
    A few years ago when I read Gibbon's Decline and fall I came upon this striking passage (from the early 1780s):
    https://archive.org/stream/historyofdecl03gibb#page/52/mode/2up/search/guinea
    which combines humanitarian revulsion at the slave trade with musings about the "obvious inferiority of their [=blacks'] mental faculties".
    The Enlightenment gets blamed for a lot of things both by "racists" and "antiracists"...rather misguided imo.

    The Enlightenment itself was hardly “antiracist” anyway in the modern sense, a lot of Enlightenment thinkers like Hume or Kant are accused of racism nowadays after all, indeed of having actually founded racism in the modern sense.

    The Enlightenment was neither racist nor antiracist. It was all about scepticism, and scepticism is a slow poison that eventually kills civilisation.

    Read More
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  139. @dux.ie
    A quick check with sample of 1. Recently there are news about the Chinese electromagnetic aircraft launch system (EMALS) and the Integrated Electrical Propulsion System (IEPS) for naval warships, and the designer Rear Admiral Ma Weiming, http://www.scmp.com/news/china/diplomacy-defence/article/2098986/why-chinese-submarines-could-soon-be-quieter-us-ones

    The CV of Ma Weiming, http://www.scmp.com/news/china/diplomacy-defence/article/2099006/top-engineer-key-chinas-dream-having-worlds-most

    """Ma, who hails from Yangzhou in Jiangsu, graduated from the PLA Naval University of Engineering in Wuhan, Hubei, in 1987 and elected to teach there. He earned a PhD in electrical engineering from Tsinghua University in 1996 and went on to become the country’s youngest engineering academician five years later. A specialist in maritime propulsion, electrical engineering and related fields, Ma has cultivated more than 400 masters and doctoral students at the naval university since the late 1980s."""

    Look like he was not educated from oversea university. So it could be true for the top talents for top secret projects. However for university presidents and key laboraty directors where international networkings are important most of them are educated overseas. https://unchronicle.un.org/article/chinas-return-migration-and-its-impact-home-development

    """The Thousand Talents Programme launched in 2008 has attracted more than
    3,300 high-quality professionals from abroad to China’s key areas. …
    78 per cent of the (university) presidents, 63 per cent of PhD advisers …
    72 per cent of directors of key laboratories are returnees."""

    What is interesting is that the sum of the top 5 country WFC losts is roughly equal to the sum of top 5 country (e.g. the BRICS) gains. This could be the results of the reversed musical chairs that ends up with plenty of vacant positions in some countries and their declines in WFC scores.

    Today i purposely asked a China engineer from one of top China uni. He affirmed, 1st grade compete to study in China top uni, the rest go overseas. And they won’t publish top paper or patents in public for us to see. I think Russia does the same. Recently a China researcher published his breakthrough work, but was removed shortly because that dual tech can be applied for stealth fighter.

    If as what you said, IQ103 is good enough for any uni general study, then Singapore majority will qualify, considered high% of its people mean IQ is above 105 and No1 ranking in PISA. But its dropping due to low grade mass immigration.

    Your link shows NTU & NUS are top2&5 in engineering study world ranking, beating even MIT & Stanford, but I only find 3rd grade China student there, tho they usually graduated as 1st class to work a few years before moving to US/Canada. That speak alot about real cream back in China.

    Read More
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  140. @dux.ie
    A quick check with sample of 1. Recently there are news about the Chinese electromagnetic aircraft launch system (EMALS) and the Integrated Electrical Propulsion System (IEPS) for naval warships, and the designer Rear Admiral Ma Weiming, http://www.scmp.com/news/china/diplomacy-defence/article/2098986/why-chinese-submarines-could-soon-be-quieter-us-ones

    The CV of Ma Weiming, http://www.scmp.com/news/china/diplomacy-defence/article/2099006/top-engineer-key-chinas-dream-having-worlds-most

    """Ma, who hails from Yangzhou in Jiangsu, graduated from the PLA Naval University of Engineering in Wuhan, Hubei, in 1987 and elected to teach there. He earned a PhD in electrical engineering from Tsinghua University in 1996 and went on to become the country’s youngest engineering academician five years later. A specialist in maritime propulsion, electrical engineering and related fields, Ma has cultivated more than 400 masters and doctoral students at the naval university since the late 1980s."""

    Look like he was not educated from oversea university. So it could be true for the top talents for top secret projects. However for university presidents and key laboraty directors where international networkings are important most of them are educated overseas. https://unchronicle.un.org/article/chinas-return-migration-and-its-impact-home-development

    """The Thousand Talents Programme launched in 2008 has attracted more than
    3,300 high-quality professionals from abroad to China’s key areas. …
    78 per cent of the (university) presidents, 63 per cent of PhD advisers …
    72 per cent of directors of key laboratories are returnees."""

    What is interesting is that the sum of the top 5 country WFC losts is roughly equal to the sum of top 5 country (e.g. the BRICS) gains. This could be the results of the reversed musical chairs that ends up with plenty of vacant positions in some countries and their declines in WFC scores.

    Adm Ma actually declared China’s EMALS & IEPS are better than USN. Military analyst remarked that Ma’s usual cautious character has make such declaration unlikely a boast. So that will be interesting to see ‘Why US should afraid of China submarine fleet?’

    http://nationalinterest.org/blog/the-buzz/why-america-should-fear-chinas-submarine-fleet-21255?page=show

    China also announced last year it had developed a multi axis precision calibrator for submarine propeling system(huge machine in picture). This is the same system Russia acquired from Japan Toshiba Heavy Ind decade ago that silent its submarines to USN great dismay. Toshiba was sanctioned for it. That may help China narrow some of its gap quickly.

    Regarding China metallurgy weakness, its nothing secret as Andrei always remark. China has admitted publicly that as its greatest constraint in its military development. Last year one article even explained in detail how China successful make single crystal fan blade for its indigenous jet engine(to withstand extreme temp & rev stress). West was blocking sales of all equipments like precise temp control for such crystalization. But they could overcome, and had good yield to the West surprise. This overcome their existing short lifespan bottle neck of indigenous jet engine, so we might see some new one appearing soon.

    Another factor is huge commercial 3D printers application, these could half the dev time to make special high precision & material parts for say J20 dev & mass production, bypassing western blockage of precision machine constraint.

    Back with huge engineering talents(1Mil new engr per year & returning overseas trained), industrial/economic prowess, gov strategic focus, the dev may be exponential faster than we expect without waiting for 2025.

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  141. Btw, car industry wasn’t China gov focus since it has zero strategic value come to trade war(a burden instead), which domestic manufacturers are always lamenting for total lack of gov support. But with Geely acquired jewels Volvo & Lotus, its hard to see why anyone can claim China can’t make GOOD car by 2025! We should expect China to start leading global car industry with EV by then.

    Recent Geely acquiring of AB Volvo that make top best heavy vehicles & machines gonna be another game changer. I have been waiting for this great move long time, finally. Those failed to seize its chance to joint venture with China in early stage to put itself at China technology center may be facing formidable onslaught in coming time. Daimler AG, Jap & US too, across EV, heavy vehicles & machines. AI will speed up entire cycle.

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  142. @dfordoom

    Cryptos! Don’t forget about the cryptos!

    See how easy it is.
     
    And Protestantism is a Judaizing heresy. So the Reformation was a Jewish plot! Engineered by people like (((Martin Luther))).

    It's not just easy, it's fun!

    Our next project is to point out how the fall of the Roman Empire in the West was engineered by the Jews. Those damned (((Ostrogoths))).

    Our next project is to point out how the fall of the Roman Empire in the West was engineered by the Jews.

    First, (((they))) corrupted the Persians and got themselves back to Jerusalem, then they manipulated the Romans into effecting a diaspora, then they ……….

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  143. @dfordoom

    Something happened in the 1930s and especially after the Second World War which led to the likely downfall of our civilization and surrendering our continents, and it surely didn’t follow directly from what came before.
     
    Perhaps not directly.

    I don't think civilisations collapse from a single blow. They collapse because they've been steadily undermined over a long period, often by multiple factors. The Enlightenment was the first major blow at the foundations, and it left those foundations permanently weakened.

    The second major blow was the First World War. It was impossible to feel entirely positive about western civilisation after that bloodbath.

    The Second World War was another blow. All the sacrifices made and what did we end up with? The permanent threat of nuclear annihilation and never-ending wars.

    The Great Depression didn't help.

    And thanks to the Enlightenment people no longer had religious faith to fall back on. The Enlightenment transformed Christianity from a universal western religion into a minor and steadily declining sect.

    Again, there were many reasons, great instability, but it was moving back and forth close to the edge. So far it’s consistent with both explanations. Then around the middle of the 20th century it fell over the edge. Whether it fell on its own or was pushed over is an open question. Now, actually, we know that there was a push, it’s just difficult to say if it was a decisive factor, or not. It’s just not clear that it would’ve fallen without the push.

    And thanks to the Enlightenment people no longer had religious faith to fall back on.

    On the other hand, something like that outcome might have been inevitable. After all, science was bound to develop further, and – especially since the discovery of the theory of evolution – religion as an explanation was bound to lose its power. But as a corollary all other aspects of religion were weakened, too. I fail to see how this could have been avoided. The only way (and already an impossible one) would have been to stop the development of science. There really was no way to stop these developments.

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    On the other hand, something like that outcome might have been inevitable. After all, science was bound to develop further, and – especially since the discovery of the theory of evolution – religion as an explanation was bound to lose its power.
     
    That's quite possibly true. It is possible that science and technology coupled with material prosperity will always have a devastating effect on religious belief.

    But as a corollary all other aspects of religion were weakened, too.
     
    That's the interesting bit. You would have expected a gradual weakening of religious faith but the Enlightenment was more than that - it was actively anti-Christian.

    What's really interesting is that those other aspects of religion, like morality, were not so much weakened as perverted. Christianity did not just fade away - it morphed into a form of secular liberalism that was just as religious. It has most of the characteristic features of Christianity - sin, guilt, etc. In fact it has a concept of Original Sin and The Fall - all Europeans are born racist sexist and homophobic. The obsession with morality is still there although it's focused on things other than sex.

    Western civilisation has not become non-Christian. We could have survived that. Instead it has embraced a secular religion that is in fact a dangerous and destructive Christian heresy.
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  144. @reiner Tor
    Again, there were many reasons, great instability, but it was moving back and forth close to the edge. So far it’s consistent with both explanations. Then around the middle of the 20th century it fell over the edge. Whether it fell on its own or was pushed over is an open question. Now, actually, we know that there was a push, it’s just difficult to say if it was a decisive factor, or not. It’s just not clear that it would’ve fallen without the push.

    And thanks to the Enlightenment people no longer had religious faith to fall back on.
     
    On the other hand, something like that outcome might have been inevitable. After all, science was bound to develop further, and - especially since the discovery of the theory of evolution - religion as an explanation was bound to lose its power. But as a corollary all other aspects of religion were weakened, too. I fail to see how this could have been avoided. The only way (and already an impossible one) would have been to stop the development of science. There really was no way to stop these developments.

    On the other hand, something like that outcome might have been inevitable. After all, science was bound to develop further, and – especially since the discovery of the theory of evolution – religion as an explanation was bound to lose its power.

    That’s quite possibly true. It is possible that science and technology coupled with material prosperity will always have a devastating effect on religious belief.

    But as a corollary all other aspects of religion were weakened, too.

    That’s the interesting bit. You would have expected a gradual weakening of religious faith but the Enlightenment was more than that – it was actively anti-Christian.

    What’s really interesting is that those other aspects of religion, like morality, were not so much weakened as perverted. Christianity did not just fade away – it morphed into a form of secular liberalism that was just as religious. It has most of the characteristic features of Christianity – sin, guilt, etc. In fact it has a concept of Original Sin and The Fall – all Europeans are born racist sexist and homophobic. The obsession with morality is still there although it’s focused on things other than sex.

    Western civilisation has not become non-Christian. We could have survived that. Instead it has embraced a secular religion that is in fact a dangerous and destructive Christian heresy.

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    • Replies: @reiner Tor
    But my point is that this post-Christian quasi-religion is quite new. It certainly didn’t much exist in, say, 1900. In fact, large parts of Europe moved in quite the opposite direction in the first half of the 20th century. Race replacement was inconceivable to get substantial support from the population.

    After 1945, there would obviously be a counter-reaction. There was also obviously a push in that direction by Jews well before 1933. The question is basically twofold. One, would the change post-1945 have happened without the Jewish push? I’m agnostic on that point. Two, was the Jewish push itself greatly strengthened by the events 1933-45? It’s an important question especially if we consider the Jewish influence to be decisive post-1945. Would the change have happened with the weaker, pre-1933 Jewish efforts?

    Here’s where MacDonald and others document instances of Jewish perfidy pre-1933. While they are enough, I think, to prove that Jews had already been a negative force well before 1933, they might be insufficient to prove that they would have been enough without the extra legitimacy given to them by the mayhem caused by the Nazis, and the redoubled efforts of the Jews.

    I personally think that the critical issue was the extra legitimacy. So at the end of the day, we might thank Hitler for all this.

    If it’s so, it still doesn’t make philo-Semitism an intellectually defensible position, but it certainly undermines the obsessive anti-Semitic viewpoint.

    There is still another related question: is it possible that while it was not Jews who caused the problem, they are now the main reason (or at least one of the main reasons) why multiculturalism, anti-racist dogma and the holocaust cult are getting more and more entrenched, even in the face of overwhelming evidence that their factual basis is false and the ideological utopia is not working at all?

    This last point (especially in its weaker form, “Jews are one of the most important reasons”) is probably true. Yet even here, there is some counter-evidence. Like some fighting the dogma are also Jewish, like this very website. Or the anti-Israel currents in parts of the left. Or the likely fact that ultimately multiculturalism won’t be good for the Jews, if for no other reason, then because it’s self-defeating and will result in some kind of societal collapse.

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  145. @dfordoom

    On the other hand, something like that outcome might have been inevitable. After all, science was bound to develop further, and – especially since the discovery of the theory of evolution – religion as an explanation was bound to lose its power.
     
    That's quite possibly true. It is possible that science and technology coupled with material prosperity will always have a devastating effect on religious belief.

    But as a corollary all other aspects of religion were weakened, too.
     
    That's the interesting bit. You would have expected a gradual weakening of religious faith but the Enlightenment was more than that - it was actively anti-Christian.

    What's really interesting is that those other aspects of religion, like morality, were not so much weakened as perverted. Christianity did not just fade away - it morphed into a form of secular liberalism that was just as religious. It has most of the characteristic features of Christianity - sin, guilt, etc. In fact it has a concept of Original Sin and The Fall - all Europeans are born racist sexist and homophobic. The obsession with morality is still there although it's focused on things other than sex.

    Western civilisation has not become non-Christian. We could have survived that. Instead it has embraced a secular religion that is in fact a dangerous and destructive Christian heresy.

    But my point is that this post-Christian quasi-religion is quite new. It certainly didn’t much exist in, say, 1900. In fact, large parts of Europe moved in quite the opposite direction in the first half of the 20th century. Race replacement was inconceivable to get substantial support from the population.

    After 1945, there would obviously be a counter-reaction. There was also obviously a push in that direction by Jews well before 1933. The question is basically twofold. One, would the change post-1945 have happened without the Jewish push? I’m agnostic on that point. Two, was the Jewish push itself greatly strengthened by the events 1933-45? It’s an important question especially if we consider the Jewish influence to be decisive post-1945. Would the change have happened with the weaker, pre-1933 Jewish efforts?

    Here’s where MacDonald and others document instances of Jewish perfidy pre-1933. While they are enough, I think, to prove that Jews had already been a negative force well before 1933, they might be insufficient to prove that they would have been enough without the extra legitimacy given to them by the mayhem caused by the Nazis, and the redoubled efforts of the Jews.

    I personally think that the critical issue was the extra legitimacy. So at the end of the day, we might thank Hitler for all this.

    If it’s so, it still doesn’t make philo-Semitism an intellectually defensible position, but it certainly undermines the obsessive anti-Semitic viewpoint.

    There is still another related question: is it possible that while it was not Jews who caused the problem, they are now the main reason (or at least one of the main reasons) why multiculturalism, anti-racist dogma and the holocaust cult are getting more and more entrenched, even in the face of overwhelming evidence that their factual basis is false and the ideological utopia is not working at all?

    This last point (especially in its weaker form, “Jews are one of the most important reasons”) is probably true. Yet even here, there is some counter-evidence. Like some fighting the dogma are also Jewish, like this very website. Or the anti-Israel currents in parts of the left. Or the likely fact that ultimately multiculturalism won’t be good for the Jews, if for no other reason, then because it’s self-defeating and will result in some kind of societal collapse.

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  146. @Andrei Martyanov

    While the fact that Russia can produce its own processors is respectable and important with regards to Russian national security
     
    This is the factor which goes as number one in ANY serious geopolitical player.

    the world’s most powerful supercomputer is built with very efficient and fully native Chinese processors using a Chinese proprietary architecture (Sunway).

     

    I kinda had a tangential moment once with this supercomputer business, so I did my due diligence a year or so ago:

    Despite those achievements, Intel still provided the chips for 91 percent of the machines on the list. And China is still catching up with the United States in state-of-the-art technologies, like software and the networking that links the thousands of chips in a modern supercomputer.
     
    https://www.nytimes.com/2016/06/21/technology/china-tops-list-of-fastest-computers-again.html

    As I said, as with so called Chinese 5th Generation Fighter (which it is not, not even close) it takes slightly more than some indices and rankings in pop-media to understand real implications. Just to give some example, for all its declared computational prowess PLA(N) are notoriously slow in entering Net-Centric Warfare Paradigm. As I already stated it not for once--while China does progress in many of those fields it remains patently clear that this "progress", despite declared prowess, is obviously not as fast or spectacular as one might have expected. Something is out there in China which continues to impede and make her development anemic in the fields which really matter for both national security and commercial use. I repeat, the development is there, but a lot of it is also a PR. In aerospace, which is in the top of the top of "indices" related to national scientific and industrial power China remains (surprisingly) a secondary derivative power and as the recent events ob CR 929 proved (yet again) basically tacitly admitted inability to develop world-class military or commercial aircraft. The question, thus, is this--where does this computing "power" go? I know opinions of Russian aerospace professionals on Chinese aerospace industry--to put it mildly they are not impressed at all.

    Sigh… You’re so uniformed about the Chinese military and military technology that it hurts…

    J-20 is very much a “real” 5th generation fighter. And it’s operational before the Russian Su-57. Cry a little more and stop repeating that nonsense. Your opinion on it’s worthless and is based on NOTHING.

    5th generation engine will be operational by the early 2020s.

    Type 095 SSNs should be competitive, operational by the early 2020s at the latest. Their SSKs are already very competitive, genius.

    C919 is competitive.

    Blah blah blah…

    Blah blah blah…

    But yeah sure, we’ll see in 2025 indeed.

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  147. @Anonymous
    Here you are really off your rocker.

    China does not have a world class Navy, lots of countries build better ships including countries like France. What's your point?

    Are you trying to imply that America will block off Chinese sea lanes to cripple its industries? This is an act of war. While I have no doubt the Chinese navy would lose that battle, the end result would be nuclear war. Not just a naval battle. So to imply that sea lanes would be interrupted is just a fantasy.

    Also, I don't see China as the weaker partner in the Russia/China alliance at all. Russia benefits as much if not more from the relationship than China does.

    Russia has stronger military tech, but China has better capital markets and manufacturing base. The truth is both countries rely on each other for defense and if either was toppled by the West the other would be sure to fall.

    And WTF are you talking about? China doesn’t have a world class navy with by far the second strongest navy in the world by 2020? 25 brand new Aegis-class destroyers, Type 055s? What year is this? Do some research, ffs. This isn’t 2005 anymore.

    And Andrei’s nonsense about China’s submarine fleet, god…

    I ALREADY TOLD YOU EARLIER:

    China has atleast 40 modern diesel subs, while Japan has less than 20. Also, Japan doesn’t have any nuclear submarines at all. WTF man, WTF!!

    Also just stop repeating the tropes about Chinese nuclear submarines. The new ones aren’t even that bad. The frigging ONI chart is old as fuck, it was published before the first Type 093 was even launched and the newer ones look outwardly considerably different (i.e. improved), and the Type 095-class is almost ready.

    Wow, you’re really are one helluva Russia Stronk expert.

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