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Global Times: China may reward families with more children next year: demographers.

China may reward families with a second child or more next year to arrest its dropping fertility rate, and the family planning policy will undergo fundamental changes, Chinese demographers said.

Their remarks came after reports that China’s National Health Commission (NHC) is studying the possibility of rewarding families with more children. …

Although not immediately confirmed by the NHC as of press time, demographers interviewed by the Global Times on Thursday said that they believe China may introduce incentives to families the next year, if not sooner, considering the drop in new births.

Demographer He Yafu told the Global Times that the NHC’s study was said to only target families having a second child and not those with three or more children, and it’s very likely that China will officially introduce the policy next year.

It’s funny to see China going from a rigid One Child Policy to Russian/Hungarian-style pro-natalism within the space of no more than four years.

However, such turnarounds aren’t exactly unprecedented in the history of Communist regimes. Mao was a pro-natalist. The One Child Policy was adopted in 1979, three years after the death of the Great Helmsman. (Still, even that reversal was quite tame by the standards of, say, Ceausescu’s Romania).

Anyhow, there’s considerable confusion even over the current level of Chinese TFR.

1. The Ministry of Health and Family Planning claims that it is around 1.5-1.6 children per woman, and has been so since the mid-1990s. This is the figure that is most often quoted in the media.

2. The National Bureau of Statistics (NBS) presents much more pessimistic figures stretching back to at least the turn of the millennium: 1.24 in 2017, 1.29 in 2016, 1.05 in 2015, 1.18 in 2010, 1.33 in 2005, and 1.22 in 2000.

This is a rather huge discrepancy, especially for such a major and central country. (I admit to being amazed that isn’t that much data on this topic, though one would might think it’s far more important than 98% of what the Blue Checkmark pundits blather on about).

FWIW, my personal assessment is that it is the latter, more pessimistic figures that are correct.

Three separate lines of evidence for that:

1. Census data

Guang-zhou, Wang & Chong-hui (2010): New fertility changes and characteristics from the sixth population census in China:

However, does such a low fertility rate present the true picture of the situation in China? In fact, debates regarding China’s fertility level have existed for a long time, especially after the 2000 census, because serious inconsistencies were found between the results of the National Population and Family Planning Commission and the survey results of the National Bureau of Statistics. Specifically, the total fertility rate of the 2000 census was 1.22; however, the National Population and Family Planning Commission as well as the Study of National Population Development Strategy believed the total fertility rate to be about 1.8. The total fertility rates from the surveys of the National Bureau of Statistics and the National Population and Family Planning Commission were between 1.4 and 1.6 thereafter; however, a gap remained between the level of TFR recognized by the National Population and Family Planning Commission and the actual survey results. The 2006 survey results of the National Population and Family Planning Commission was the only exception: This survey found the total fertility rate to be 1.87, which was close to the level consistently recognized by the National Population and Family Planning Commission.

Previous studies have found that the fertility level of rural childbearing-age women is consistently higher than that of their urban counterparts due to the dual urban-rural structure of China’s family planning policy and regional differences in the process of fertility transition. The fertility level of childbearing-age women with primary (or below) education levels are higher than that of those with middle school (or higher) education levels. The 2000 census data showed that the total fertility rate of rural childbearing-age women was 1.43, and the total fertility rate of these women with primary (or below) education level was 1.49. Given that the proportion of urban citizens was greater than 45%, we can infer that the total fertility rate of childbearing-age women should be less than 1.43 from the 2000 national census. Furthermore, it was virtually impossible to have a total fertility rate higher than that of rural childbearing-age women (1.49) with primary (or below) education level. In addition, the 2010 census revealed that the total fertility rate of rural childbearing-age women was 1.44; based on these data, we conclude that the fertility rate of childbearing-age women in 2010 should be less than 1.44. Moreover, it was virtually impossible to have a total fertility rate higher than that of rural Chinese childbearing-age women with primary (or below) education levels (1.64 in 2010). In addition, the 2010 census data regarding age structure can be used to indirectly estimate the history of changes in the fertility level of childbearing-age women from 2000-2010. This estimation shows that the fertility rates in 2000, 2005, and 2010 were approximately 1.34, 1.43, and 1.29, respectively. In short, a conservative estimate based on the available data showed that the total fertility rate in 2010 should be less than 1.44, and the chance of it being higher than 1.64 is minimal.

2. Studies consistently show that China has very low desired fertility even by developed world standards.

Basten, Stuart & Quanbao Jiang (2015) – Fertility in China: An uncertain future

As Hou et al. (2014) report, the mean desired number of children in 63 studies of urban fertility preferences in the period 2000–10 was just 1.50 (SD 0.25). The mean in 52 studies in rural areas over the same period was 1.82 (SD 0.36). While a number of caveats should be made about equivalence across studies in these meta-reviews, and about respondent bias (see Basten and Gu 2013, pp. 29–31), these findings appear to be robust. They are consonant with the results of other qualitative studies (e.g., Nie and Wyman 2005) and with data from nationally representative surveys.

Assuming a 50/50 urban-rural split, China’s desired fertility rate would be equal to Germany’s, which is the least breeder-ish country in the EU, along with Austria.

europe-desired-fertility

Alber, Jens, Fahey, & Saraceno (2007) – Handbook of Quality of Life in Enlargement Europe. For comparison, current figure for both Russian and American women is around 2.2-2.5 children.

In post-traditionalist societies, there is usually at least a 0.5 child shortfall between actual fertility, and desired fertility. This suggests that we should expect China to have a TFR of around 1.25.

3. Comparison with countries with not too dissimilar demographic profiles.

The Chinese population pyramid should be somewhat similar to Iran: Both countries saw strong demographic expansion prior to the 1980s, then a massive slowdown as the effect of family planning policies kicked in (e.g. Iran was projected to have a population of 122 million in 2025 by the UN in the 1980s; its current population is just 80 million, and is highly unlikely to exceed 100 million during this century).

Current TFR of Iran is around 1.7 children per woman, at a birth rate of 19/100,000. China’s birth rate has been 12/100,000 since the early 2000s. This again makes it consistent with a TFR that is 0.5 children lower than the oft quoted figures.

If this is all true, then China should have really moved from One Child Policy to pro-natalism at least a decade ago, if not two.

I wonder if the reason it didn’t could have had anything to do with the leadership not getting clear signals that Chinese fertility had already fallen into the doldrums by the turn of the millennium.

As I understand it, the One Child Policy was itself inspired by the neo-Malthusian gloom of those times, adjusted for Western intellectual trends coming a decade late to the Communist world; Paul R. Ehrlich had published his famous(ly wrong) book Population Bomb a decade earlier, in 1968. The CPC may also have been concerned about industrial gains getting eaten by population growth. A more human capital-centered/biorealistic viewpoint on the economy might have helped them escape this trap, and China today might have 1.6 billion people instead of 1.3 billion, and a younger population.

***

EDIT: Commenter Cicerone has a very good argument why the Ministry of Health and Family Planning figures (TFR = 1.6) are the more accurate ones after all.

 
• Category: Economics • Tags: China, Demographics, Fertility 
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  1. Dmitry says:

    In Iran, it’s a similar situation.

    I read the Iran government reversed policy from 2014, and were soon able to probably recover to TFR almost 2 per women in the last year.

    By the way, what is ideal fertility rate for most countries? Surely in monoethnic county, perfect rate is 2.1 – steadily distributed over decades, so that there are not echoing waves, and everything relating to budget of country can be easily planned.

    Read More
    • Replies: @iffen
    what is ideal fertility rate for most countries?

    Depends upon the country, D. For some it would be zero, others it would be 12-14.
    , @Anatoly Karlin
    From a national perspective (barring some specific but now largely irrelevant situations, such as climbing out of a Malthusian trap), the more the merrier: https://www.unz.com/akarlin/superpower-demographics/

    For instance, assume the Poles decided to become really stronk, and raised their TFR to 4 children per woman with immediate effect. They’d approach Russia’s current population by 2100. Poland’s historical security problems with respect to their western and eastern neighbors would be definitively solved.
     
    At current trends, the population discrepancy between Israel and Iran may go from 10:1 to just 2:1 at the end of the century.
    , @Thorfinnsson
    You want to maximize quality population growth for the exact same reason you want to maximize quality economic growth.

    Population is power.
    , @RadicalCenter
    Assuming you will never need people, mostly younger men, to die in combat. Which you surely eventually will. So no, TFR 2.1 is not sufficient in the real world as opposed to the theoretical discussion.

    A people or a country is generally growing or dying. Surplus population can and should be used, other than for defense, to send immigrants to whatever other relatively desireable countries will let them settle. Create a diaspora that can wield some cultural and political influence in other societies, if possible, as the Chinese for example are doing wonderfully in Canada, Australia, and parts of the the East and more so West Coasts of the USA.

    We should be having 3 children per healthy couple, minimum, and providing funding, serious language training, and encouragement for our people to settle in other lands, especially smaller and/or strategically important countries — rather than more fertile, more confident, and yes less faggotized alien peoples sending settlers here.

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  2. 5371 says:

    Even the Iranian birth rate and still more TFR you cite are impossibly low based on census results. Much more so the lower versions of the Chinese figures, because in China the numerous cohorts long ago passed beyond child bearing age.
    Boomerific sneering at concern about overpopulation is not a good look.

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  3. iffen says:
    @Dmitry
    In Iran, it's a similar situation.

    I read the Iran government reversed policy from 2014, and were soon able to probably recover to TFR almost 2 per women in the last year.

    By the way, what is ideal fertility rate for most countries? Surely in monoethnic county, perfect rate is 2.1 - steadily distributed over decades, so that there are not echoing waves, and everything relating to budget of country can be easily planned.

    what is ideal fertility rate for most countries?

    Depends upon the country, D. For some it would be zero, others it would be 12-14.

    Read More
    • LOL: Anatoly Karlin
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  4. @Dmitry
    In Iran, it's a similar situation.

    I read the Iran government reversed policy from 2014, and were soon able to probably recover to TFR almost 2 per women in the last year.

    By the way, what is ideal fertility rate for most countries? Surely in monoethnic county, perfect rate is 2.1 - steadily distributed over decades, so that there are not echoing waves, and everything relating to budget of country can be easily planned.

    From a national perspective (barring some specific but now largely irrelevant situations, such as climbing out of a Malthusian trap), the more the merrier: https://www.unz.com/akarlin/superpower-demographics/

    For instance, assume the Poles decided to become really stronk, and raised their TFR to 4 children per woman with immediate effect. They’d approach Russia’s current population by 2100. Poland’s historical security problems with respect to their western and eastern neighbors would be definitively solved.

    At current trends, the population discrepancy between Israel and Iran may go from 10:1 to just 2:1 at the end of the century.

    Read More
    • Replies: @Dmitry

    From a national perspective (barring some specific but now largely irrelevant situations, such as climbing out of a Malthusian trap), the more the merrier:
     
    Assuming country has not reached already ideal population density, or is not threatened by war, or superpower rivalries.

    But let's say in case of country like Norway, where they have no military threats and their borders and relations with their neighbours are stable.

    Perfect situation would seem to me where fertility rate maintains perfectly constant population. And immigration policy could be set to allow no more people in than leave.

    In such a situation, everything would be very easy to plan, dependency ratio would remain always constant, and all kinds of budgets, from school funding to healthcare and pensions, could be predetermined years before.

    Discussion sounds a little out of place now, where almost no industrialized country can maintain fertility rate of 2.1.

    But in the next century or so - by then children will be produced for order in artificial wombs, and fertility rate could be easily raised or lowered by government.

    , @Anonymous
    Isreal is only able to achieve such demographics because they are using Orthodox Breeder Jews that do nothing but pop out kids and collect welfare.

    This is completely unsustainable and these Jews are lower IQ as well.
    , @RadicalCenter
    Conversely, Russia’s persistently inadequate fertility rate may be improving slightly, but not enough to stop russia from dwindling.

    Russia needs, and should have, many many more people for defensive purposes, including holding the lands in the Far East (which border a massively larger Chinese population that will love to have the living space, the minerals and fossil fuels under the ground, and the agricultural land for themselves).
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  5. Jason Liu says:

    Financial incentives don’t work, other countries have tried. Nor does extra maternity leave, child care, better wages, lower cost of living, housing prices, etc. Countries with those things still have abysmal native birth rates.

    The main cause of low birthrates is women’s education and gender equality. In wealthy societies, women (and many men) just don’t want kids no matter how much support they’re given. So the problem is more cultural than anything else.

    People in developed countries tend towards permanent adolescence, fear of family responsibilities, and a fantasy that life is about having fun and doing whatever you want, and kids just chain you down. I catch myself thinking this way too, but then I remind myself that life was probably 95% work for all my ancestors.

    Read More
    • Replies: @Erik Sieven
    I have heard hunter-gatherers only worked 4 hours a day. Also people in medieval Europe had much more free days than today. They had (religiously motivated) parties all the time.
    , @Anonymous
    I think high real estate prices are as big of a factor as gender equality.
    , @Dmitry

    In wealthy societies, women (and many men) just don’t want kids no matter how much support they’re given. So the problem is more cultural than anything else.
     
    In 50-100 years in the future (whenever it happens), when babies are produced to order by private companies using artificial wombs - fertility rates will likely naturally start to rise towards 2 again.

    In such a case, a government could also subsidize this part of the cost, or even for companies to bring up the children for the first few years. It will become much easier to adjust fertility rates up and down as necessary. Easily in the 22nd century, people will order children from companies, in the same way you now order pets.
    , @Jaakko Raipala

    The main cause of low birthrates is women’s education and gender equality. In wealthy societies, women (and many men) just don’t want kids no matter how much support they’re given. So the problem is more cultural than anything else.
     
    Such nonsense. Women have much higher desired child counts than men do. If it was entirely up to women's choice, every industrialized country would be well above replacement, if it was up entirely up to men's choice, birth rates would be even lower.

    Come on. Think of the real-world couples that you know. In how many cases did children appear because the woman demanded them from a reluctant man and in how many the opposite? Women want children much more than men do and the fertility collapse happens when sex without children becomes available to men.

    The main problem with women flooding education is that it leads to a situation where women move to cities at a much higher rate and there's a permanent gender imbalance in favor of men in the countryside and women in the cities. Women prefer the fields that are taught in giant universities while men are much more likely to want a trade or to start a business. Besides, the current inflation of educational status means that we now have tons of women with worthless liberal arts degrees who think they're "higher status" than mechanics or plumbers and women still want to date up.
    , @dfordoom

    The main cause of low birthrates is women’s education and gender equality. In wealthy societies, women (and many men) just don’t want kids no matter how much support they’re given. So the problem is more cultural than anything else.
     
    Absolutely correct.

    Abolishing feminism is not merely desirable, it is essential for long-term survival.

    Abolishing feminism is probably not politically impossible in the West, which is why the West is not going to survive. On the other hand it is politically possible in China.
    , @anonymous coward
    False. Iran, China and Russia have no feminism or "women's liberation" movements.

    The primary cause is high real estate prices. Give the average woman a large house in a good neighborhood, and fertility will rise to 3 children per woman.

    As long as the choice is "rent a small apartment in a high-wage city" vs "live in large house in the ass end of nowhere" women will keep delaying childbirth.
    , @Rosie
    The main cause of low birthrates is women’s education and gender equality.
     How ignorant and oppressed do you think women need to be to have a healthy birth rate, Mr. Liu? Be specific.
    , @Ilya G Poimandres
    We're not at an optimal population for the Earth, gotta go one child policy on every one on the planet, and you could reduce the population down to something reasonable in a century.

    Children are only a heavy commitment for 20 years, not even life really - have em at 20 and you're out quite early!

    The West has no ideology that needs birth - everyone is an atheist and an individual and can do as they please.. needs a driving force. Or maybe the chemicals are already doing us all in so it wouldn't matter anyways!! :)
    , @Anon
    I would like to point out the whole reason women entered the work force en masse during the 1970s and onward was to sustain a gradually slipping middle-class standard of living. If men made good wages and had access to affordable housing, transportation, health care, and education, a lot more women would have stayed home to raise kids, and they would be open to having more kids.

    Your average woman is not happy about having and raising kids while working a full-time job, because it's an insane amount of emotional pressure and labor. Many are very emotionally conflicted about this because they feel like they are neglecting their children if they work full-time. But if they quit their job, they know their family's finances will suffer.

    Men have to make more money, but they need a labor market that will cough up. Our entire capitalist elite has been doing everything it can to keep wages down for the last 40 years. This is a well-known fact, and to ignore its impact on family formation is poor-quality analysis.
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  6. I vaguely recall having read a few years ago that China’s supposed gender imbalance wasn’t as bad as expected, because many people in rural areas just hadn’t reported their daughters to the authorities at birth, thereby bypassing the one child rule. So I wonder how reliable any fertility rates data from China could be.

    Read More
    • Replies: @songbird
    What I heard is that the male imbalance exists in the countryside, not in the cities which sometimes have more women than men, due to patterns of migration.

    What the exact ratio is, who knows... but if it's so bad, then how can some cities have more women than men?
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  7. very good article. Another point which backs up the low estimate is that is likely that China has a TFR similar to that of South Korea or maybe even Singapore for cultural reasons.
    All in all currently it seems that East Asians are on their way to non-existence. 21th century will see a lot of East Asian wealth, 31th century will maybe see no East Asians at all.

    Read More
    • Replies: @RadicalCenter
    Northeast Asians and white people are on the way out of existence. The world will be much more of a hellhole without us both.
    , @AnotherDad

    All in all currently it seems that East Asians are on their way to non-existence. 21th century will see a lot of East Asian wealth, 31th century will maybe see no East Asians at all.
     
    East Asians aren't going anywhere. What's happening--as is happening many places--is a culling of certain genotypes that produce low-fertility phenotypes in modern industrial/post-industrial economies/societies.

    As the genotypes that produce "happy to have babies" phenotypes rise relative to those that don't TFR will recover.

    The people in trouble are--unfortunately, from my perspective--white people. Because we're actually ceding our territories. That's how you reach extinction. Modernity induced TFR dip is inevitable and inevitably recoverable. But you have to hold your territory during the dip, not let invaders take your land and break your nation.
    , @DRA
    In the recent past, natural selection was more for folks who wanted to have sex. Now the selection is more for folks who want to have children and grandchildren.

    Longer ago many folks were more motivated by the economics. Children could work more easily, whether on the farm or in the shops, and parents didn't have to support them for as many years, and at great cost, for them to be successful in life.

    It also makes a pretty big difference if folks consider a marriage as an alliance against the future, rather than a convenient source of sex and companionship. Part of the traditional alliance against the future was the need for children to provide a living for parents against need in their old age.

    God fearing folks also do better on decendents than atheists, agnostics or members of "social" churches etc.

    It is not clear to me that the world we have created will lead to concern for the future or high IQ. Maybe if we were smarter and had more foresight, we wouldn't have painted ourselves into this corner.
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  8. when I am in China I always see those grandmothers with their one (!) grandchild in the park. That implies low fertility.

    Read More
    • Replies: @attilathehen
    Excellent!!! I've read that the Chinese have performed over 400 million abortions in the past 30 years. I hope the number is much higher. The Chinese are worthless. The world will be better off without them.
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  9. Cicerone says:

    Current TFR of Iran is around 1.7 children per woman, at a birth rate of 19/100,000. China’s birth rate has been 12/100,000 since the early 2000s. This again makes it consistent with a TFR that is 0.5 children lower than the oft quoted figures.

    The age strucures of Iran and China are too different to make that comparison. China had a TFR of 6 until around 1970, while Iran kept that rate until 1990, so Iran’s population is much younger than China’s.

    But anyway, here’s my take on it:

    The only official and annual data China publishes on births that I am aware of is in their Statistical Yearbook. There they keep a time series on the crude birth rate:

    In 2016, this was 12.95 per 1000 people.

    Now my idea is, instead of comparing this crude birth rate to Iran, why not compare it to a similar age structure as China actually has? The UN in its world population prospects have a best guess of their age structure, and conveniently deliver their estimate of the crude birth rate and total fertility rate as well. For 2016, they give a CBR of 12.0 per 1000 and a TFR of 1.65 children per woman. This means that hypothetical, with a TFR of 1.0, their CBR should be 7.38. But in reality it is 12.95.

    So taking the data from the two sources, we get 12.95/7.38 = 1.75 children per woman. This would be my best guess for China’s TFR at the moment.

    Read More
    • Agree: Anatoly Karlin
    • Replies: @Anatoly Karlin
    Thanks, this is a very good argument. I appended it to my post.

    I was busy in the past few days and have not had time to check in on the replies. It has blown up pretty good in my absence.

    I will try to get through of as many of the comments as possible.
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  10. @Jason Liu
    Financial incentives don't work, other countries have tried. Nor does extra maternity leave, child care, better wages, lower cost of living, housing prices, etc. Countries with those things still have abysmal native birth rates.

    The main cause of low birthrates is women's education and gender equality. In wealthy societies, women (and many men) just don't want kids no matter how much support they're given. So the problem is more cultural than anything else.

    People in developed countries tend towards permanent adolescence, fear of family responsibilities, and a fantasy that life is about having fun and doing whatever you want, and kids just chain you down. I catch myself thinking this way too, but then I remind myself that life was probably 95% work for all my ancestors.

    I have heard hunter-gatherers only worked 4 hours a day. Also people in medieval Europe had much more free days than today. They had (religiously motivated) parties all the time.

    Read More
    • Replies: @RealAmericanValuesCirca1776Not1965

    Also people in medieval Europe had much more free days than today. They had (religiously motivated) parties all the time.
     
    Schmoozing around a barrel of burning cats.
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  11. Dmitry says:
    @Anatoly Karlin
    From a national perspective (barring some specific but now largely irrelevant situations, such as climbing out of a Malthusian trap), the more the merrier: https://www.unz.com/akarlin/superpower-demographics/

    For instance, assume the Poles decided to become really stronk, and raised their TFR to 4 children per woman with immediate effect. They’d approach Russia’s current population by 2100. Poland’s historical security problems with respect to their western and eastern neighbors would be definitively solved.
     
    At current trends, the population discrepancy between Israel and Iran may go from 10:1 to just 2:1 at the end of the century.

    From a national perspective (barring some specific but now largely irrelevant situations, such as climbing out of a Malthusian trap), the more the merrier:

    Assuming country has not reached already ideal population density, or is not threatened by war, or superpower rivalries.

    But let’s say in case of country like Norway, where they have no military threats and their borders and relations with their neighbours are stable.

    Perfect situation would seem to me where fertility rate maintains perfectly constant population. And immigration policy could be set to allow no more people in than leave.

    In such a situation, everything would be very easy to plan, dependency ratio would remain always constant, and all kinds of budgets, from school funding to healthcare and pensions, could be predetermined years before.

    Discussion sounds a little out of place now, where almost no industrialized country can maintain fertility rate of 2.1.

    But in the next century or so – by then children will be produced for order in artificial wombs, and fertility rate could be easily raised or lowered by government.

    Read More
    • Replies: @5371
    [But in the next century or so – by then children will be produced for order in artificial wombs, and fertility rate could be easily raised or lowered by government.]

    By then humans will have been abolished by AI, why are you even discussing anything so backward as their reproduction?
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  12. Anonymous[392] • Disclaimer says:
    @Jason Liu
    Financial incentives don't work, other countries have tried. Nor does extra maternity leave, child care, better wages, lower cost of living, housing prices, etc. Countries with those things still have abysmal native birth rates.

    The main cause of low birthrates is women's education and gender equality. In wealthy societies, women (and many men) just don't want kids no matter how much support they're given. So the problem is more cultural than anything else.

    People in developed countries tend towards permanent adolescence, fear of family responsibilities, and a fantasy that life is about having fun and doing whatever you want, and kids just chain you down. I catch myself thinking this way too, but then I remind myself that life was probably 95% work for all my ancestors.

    I think high real estate prices are as big of a factor as gender equality.

    Read More
    • Replies: @LondonBob
    English Puritans had religious and cultural ideology, in New England they also had unlimited land.
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  13. Anonymous[392] • Disclaimer says:
    @Anatoly Karlin
    From a national perspective (barring some specific but now largely irrelevant situations, such as climbing out of a Malthusian trap), the more the merrier: https://www.unz.com/akarlin/superpower-demographics/

    For instance, assume the Poles decided to become really stronk, and raised their TFR to 4 children per woman with immediate effect. They’d approach Russia’s current population by 2100. Poland’s historical security problems with respect to their western and eastern neighbors would be definitively solved.
     
    At current trends, the population discrepancy between Israel and Iran may go from 10:1 to just 2:1 at the end of the century.

    Isreal is only able to achieve such demographics because they are using Orthodox Breeder Jews that do nothing but pop out kids and collect welfare.

    This is completely unsustainable and these Jews are lower IQ as well.

    Read More
    • Replies: @Dmitry
    Even secular population is also now above replacement rates there.

    But this is not a normal situation - it seems collective fear response to horror of being outnumbered by Arabs who hate you, as well as religious who want to impose their lifestyle on you.

    If you live in Middle East with millions of uncivilized Arabs both inside and outside your country (and also growing religious Jewish cults inside the country and which want to return it to medievalist superstition), then rational decision is - to apply for visa to escape and live in Europe, Australia, Canada, etc. But if you have to have family and future in such an environment, it would feel much more normal to aim for 5 kids than 1.


    -

    Considering the Arabs are also:
    https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=d5Cg6Qx1wSo

    , @gate666
    you are wrong.
    , @Wizard of Oz
    Their Bedouin citizens thanks to polygamy and welfare (especially the latter) are champion breeders.
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  14. Dmitry says:
    @Jason Liu
    Financial incentives don't work, other countries have tried. Nor does extra maternity leave, child care, better wages, lower cost of living, housing prices, etc. Countries with those things still have abysmal native birth rates.

    The main cause of low birthrates is women's education and gender equality. In wealthy societies, women (and many men) just don't want kids no matter how much support they're given. So the problem is more cultural than anything else.

    People in developed countries tend towards permanent adolescence, fear of family responsibilities, and a fantasy that life is about having fun and doing whatever you want, and kids just chain you down. I catch myself thinking this way too, but then I remind myself that life was probably 95% work for all my ancestors.

    In wealthy societies, women (and many men) just don’t want kids no matter how much support they’re given. So the problem is more cultural than anything else.

    In 50-100 years in the future (whenever it happens), when babies are produced to order by private companies using artificial wombs – fertility rates will likely naturally start to rise towards 2 again.

    In such a case, a government could also subsidize this part of the cost, or even for companies to bring up the children for the first few years. It will become much easier to adjust fertility rates up and down as necessary. Easily in the 22nd century, people will order children from companies, in the same way you now order pets.

    Read More
    • Replies: @Daniel Chieh
    Yes, humanity as pets is indeed the future we all need to strive for.

    http://25.media.tumblr.com/tumblr_m8rvmlJcce1qj3louo4_1280.jpg

    Maybe some of those humans won't fit the correct zeitgeist for your world or just get forgotten?

    http://i.imgur.com/i9ETZk0.jpg

    , @Anonymous
    In that scenario, fertility rates have not naturally risen. They've artificially or unnaturally risen towards 2, and naturally collapsed to Zero.
    , @RadicalCenter
    You’re right that it plays some role in some people’s decision, but high housing costs seem less important than moral values and ideas about the purpose of life.

    High housing costs are not a fatal deterrent for people truly committed to having children and willing to make the sacrifices needed to expand their family and perpetuate their nation. We are doing it ourselves.

    My wife and I lived with three small children in a ONE-bedroom apartment in Los Angeles for years. We now live in a palatial (not) TWO-bedroom with the kids growing a bit and praying for a fourth baby to come along soon, God willing.

    Moreover, many intelligent, educated, productive white people in the USA are simply too selfish, too childishly self-absorbed, and frankly lazy, to “put themselves through”parenthood. One of my own sisters is like this. It would interfere with their drinking and toking and endless hookups, undermine their travel budget, and generally complicate their faggotty atomistic little lives.

    I remember being single and reading personal ads online. I was amazed at the number of women, many of whom claimed to want or “be open to” children, who were already in their thirties and still talking about their desire to travel the world with their guy. I think they greatly overestimate the proportion of men, including men with steady good-paying jobs, who could afford anywhere near the travel they want and still provide well for their future and their children’s future. “They watch too many movies”, as the saying goes.

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  15. Dmitry says:
    @Anonymous
    Isreal is only able to achieve such demographics because they are using Orthodox Breeder Jews that do nothing but pop out kids and collect welfare.

    This is completely unsustainable and these Jews are lower IQ as well.

    Even secular population is also now above replacement rates there.

    But this is not a normal situation – it seems collective fear response to horror of being outnumbered by Arabs who hate you, as well as religious who want to impose their lifestyle on you.

    If you live in Middle East with millions of uncivilized Arabs both inside and outside your country (and also growing religious Jewish cults inside the country and which want to return it to medievalist superstition), then rational decision is – to apply for visa to escape and live in Europe, Australia, Canada, etc. But if you have to have family and future in such an environment, it would feel much more normal to aim for 5 kids than 1.

    -

    Considering the Arabs are also:

    Read More
    • Replies: @J
    How rational is a decision to move to a low fertility country and have no grandchildren? The rational decision for a Jew desiring to have a traditional multigenerational family is to move asap to Israel. BTW, the demographic effect of Arab terror is zero.
    , @songbird
    Something like this may happen in Europe soon.

    The war of numbers already exists on the level of immigration - Muslims support it with the expectation that they will gain full control of Europe. There is a real anger - a glint in the eye - when it is opposed.
    , @Talha

    If you live in Middle East with millions of uncivilized Arabs both inside and outside your country
     
    https://m.youtube.com/watch?v=eWXRintPmGQ

    Need to have a serious sit down with your real estate agent...

    Peace.
    , @RadicalCenter
    White people in the USA ought to wake the Hell up and realize that they are in a demographic war here, too —with results no less deadly for us than for the Jews in Israel if we don’t keep up.

    Even without any further immigration (ha), we would need a far higher fertility rate to avoid being marginalized and then persecuted and then physically subjugated or eliminated right here in the former USA.

    We need to have the manpower to fight, to defend homes and neighborhoods and towns, and where possible to reclaim lost territory and resources. And until then, or alongside such defensive efforts, we need more of our own people (including well-raised and assimilated, loyal white/asian people and Hispanic white people) to vote as a bloc, to speak English and demand that others speak it, to participate in political rallies, to participate in boycotts of hostile corporations and institutions, to organize to protect each other’s rights and interests in the workplace and in universities, to deter and severely punish violence or threats against our people, and to generally influence and control the culture.
    , @Wizard of Oz
    I recall the dangers of compulsory military service being advanced as one reason why secular Israeli couples might aim for a boy, a girl and a spare.
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  16. J J says:

    The leadership probably overestimated the impact of technology development (Automation, AI etc), or maybe they didn’t.

    Read More
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  17. @Jason Liu
    Financial incentives don't work, other countries have tried. Nor does extra maternity leave, child care, better wages, lower cost of living, housing prices, etc. Countries with those things still have abysmal native birth rates.

    The main cause of low birthrates is women's education and gender equality. In wealthy societies, women (and many men) just don't want kids no matter how much support they're given. So the problem is more cultural than anything else.

    People in developed countries tend towards permanent adolescence, fear of family responsibilities, and a fantasy that life is about having fun and doing whatever you want, and kids just chain you down. I catch myself thinking this way too, but then I remind myself that life was probably 95% work for all my ancestors.

    The main cause of low birthrates is women’s education and gender equality. In wealthy societies, women (and many men) just don’t want kids no matter how much support they’re given. So the problem is more cultural than anything else.

    Such nonsense. Women have much higher desired child counts than men do. If it was entirely up to women’s choice, every industrialized country would be well above replacement, if it was up entirely up to men’s choice, birth rates would be even lower.

    Come on. Think of the real-world couples that you know. In how many cases did children appear because the woman demanded them from a reluctant man and in how many the opposite? Women want children much more than men do and the fertility collapse happens when sex without children becomes available to men.

    The main problem with women flooding education is that it leads to a situation where women move to cities at a much higher rate and there’s a permanent gender imbalance in favor of men in the countryside and women in the cities. Women prefer the fields that are taught in giant universities while men are much more likely to want a trade or to start a business. Besides, the current inflation of educational status means that we now have tons of women with worthless liberal arts degrees who think they’re “higher status” than mechanics or plumbers and women still want to date up.

    Read More
    • Replies: @iffen
    women move to cities at a much higher rate

    Urban population (% of total) in United States was 81.79 as of 2016. Its highest value over the past 56 years was 81.79 in 2016, while its lowest value was 70.00 in 1960

    *82%!
    , @Duke of Qin
    Yes, the higher education status bubble and women refusing to marry "down" is an especially acute problem in China and East Asia as a whole. It is Chinese nature to want to over educate, or at least over credential, their children thanks to two millennia of bureaucratic pressure selecting for education and credentialism. Girls are simply more responsive to the modern type of abusive education system that seems universal because they are more obedient and lass rambunctious than boys. Thankfully the Communists seem to be both cognizant of the problem and have started making half hearted efforts to redress this. Many university departments now have separate scoring criteria for men as opposed to women in admissions. For "soft" subjects which women gravitate towards and the gender imbalance is acute, women are required to have higher scores than men to gain admittance. I don't think this goes far enough, but Chinese parents are particularly "touchy" about the prospects of their children getting ahead being kneecapped so I'm not sure how much the party can get away with in this area without facing serious public opposition.
    , @Anonymous
    TFR is the average number of children a woman has and it has fallen because women have much higher relative social status now. And women have much higher relative social status now because educational, employment, career, and political opportunities are available to them and even heavily subsidized and promoted for them. In general, social status derives from wealth or prestige of occupation, and prestigious occupations, whether or not they're remunerative, generally require educational and or professional credentials.

    Now that the average woman gets educated, has various careers, and can participate in politics, she has much higher relative status and has higher status than a large swathe of the male population. And because women naturally have an aversion to pair bonding and mating with men of lower status, this restricts the pool of acceptable mates for most women and thus the fertility rate has dropped.

    Until relatively recently, women were restricted from education and most occupations and public life. Women had to depend on a man for sustenance. Even a poor working man had higher relative status than any woman because he could earn a certain wage independently that no woman could, he could access certain educational opportunities that women couldn't, and he had the franchise and could participate in public life and assume political positions and power while women couldn't. Every man in society had higher status than women in important respects, and this meant that the amount of desirable and acceptable mates for women were much higher, and thus fertility rates were much higher.
    , @Polish Perspective

    Women have much higher desired child counts than men do. If it was entirely up to women’s choice, every industrialized country would be well above replacement, if it was up entirely up to men’s choice, birth rates would be even lower.
     
    Yes, but it doesn't change his (correct) analysis. There is a well-known pattern between education and fertility. The more educated women become, the more they delay the age of initial child-bearing. You see this in developing country after developing country.

    However, education is just one of many factors. Liu is correct to emphasize cultural factors. Jaako's point about Scandinavia may be true, but it doesn't change the argument. Scandinavia still has sub-replacement TFR aside from perhaps Iceland.

    Religiosity is the bigger factor. The importance here is intensity and not shallowness. Iran is a superficially religious country but many Iranians will tell you that the population isn't nearly as fanatic as the leadership. The same pattern is true in Turkey, where atheism among Turks is rare but their religious intensity is quite low whereas the kurds are more pious. For the kurds, they also have the demographic pressure, which acts as a co-enabler and therefore pushes up fertility.

    Then there's also the K-selection and r-selection theory, though I am not a biologist so I do not know how accurate that theory is. Could possibly be a factor.

    Generally, money is probably the least important issue. Far more important are the social and cultural values, which also informs how much you want to educate your girls. One area which someone mentioned is real estate and I'd probably agree to that to a smaller extent. The gigantic rise of debt-fuelled real estate prices all over the West, and increasingly even in EE, over the past 15-20 years has priced many young couples out of the market and forces them to work longer to get a decent housing in many countries. Not everyone wants or even can live in the rural areas. Jobs and economic activity is tied to urban areas. That delayed investment probably also affects TFR at the margins.

    , @reiner Tor

    Think of the real-world couples that you know. In how many cases did children appear because the woman demanded them from a reluctant man and in how many the opposite?
     
    Ah, you mean the first child? It’s obviously part of a woman’s strategy to chain the guy to herself. The reason those guys are reluctant is because they want to keep their options open. But I actually don’t know many couples where that was the case. I know a few where the husband seemed relatively uninterested in the project, mostly in the sense of “children are good, but I don’t care so much, and won’t do a stroke of work about it.” That’s of course not active opposition.

    I know a couple where the wife wanted a second child but the husband opposed, and so they only have one child. I know two couples where the husband wanted more children but they only have one child because the wife doesn’t want the discomfort of childbearing. I also know a couple where the husband said (to me, years before meeting his wife, and he’s still saying that) that he wanted 2-4 children, more than four being too many and less than two too few. They have two children, because his wife said in no uncertain terms that she won’t give birth to more children.

    I also know a guy who had a divorced mother girlfriend who explicitly ruled out having a second child. (I think it was one of the reasons he broke up with her.)

    It’s obvious that women bear the brunt of the burden of having children. They also get crazy if they have no children, but having just one child is usually enough to prevent that. For guys it just doesn’t matter much, but I don’t think they are usually so strongly opposed to having a second child or further children. It’s simply not that much of a sacrifice for a guy. It’s a sacrifice for the woman, and they often strongly oppose it because of this.

    On the other hand, guys don’t care that much. And they rarely tell distant acquaintances that they want more children (which desire is usually not considered very manly) and especially that their wives prevented them from having more children. People don’t want to advertise being beta.
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  18. iffen says:
    @Jaakko Raipala

    The main cause of low birthrates is women’s education and gender equality. In wealthy societies, women (and many men) just don’t want kids no matter how much support they’re given. So the problem is more cultural than anything else.
     
    Such nonsense. Women have much higher desired child counts than men do. If it was entirely up to women's choice, every industrialized country would be well above replacement, if it was up entirely up to men's choice, birth rates would be even lower.

    Come on. Think of the real-world couples that you know. In how many cases did children appear because the woman demanded them from a reluctant man and in how many the opposite? Women want children much more than men do and the fertility collapse happens when sex without children becomes available to men.

    The main problem with women flooding education is that it leads to a situation where women move to cities at a much higher rate and there's a permanent gender imbalance in favor of men in the countryside and women in the cities. Women prefer the fields that are taught in giant universities while men are much more likely to want a trade or to start a business. Besides, the current inflation of educational status means that we now have tons of women with worthless liberal arts degrees who think they're "higher status" than mechanics or plumbers and women still want to date up.

    women move to cities at a much higher rate

    Urban population (% of total) in United States was 81.79 as of 2016. Its highest value over the past 56 years was 81.79 in 2016, while its lowest value was 70.00 in 1960

    *82%!

    Read More
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  19. TFR is merely a synthetic benchmark of imagined fertility and has it’s own issues. The discrepancy in different Chinese domestic sources of estimated TFR have their origins in the one child policy itself and the “Sovok” system. Communist party demands birth control, you’ll get data showing lower birth rates by those immediately responsible for enforcing birth restrictions. However, those whose careers aren’t directly tied to enforcement won’t necessarily report the corroborating data. For example census data reporting births being reported at X amount and then six years down the line, another data point will show X+Y number of students registering for school. Where did those extra Y students come from?

    Like cicerone stated, a better way to get an accurate reflection of actual fertility is using the crude birth rate (the number of children actually born) and adjusting for the median age of the population. The comparison to Iran is interesting, but flawed in that it is predicated on the Iranian TFR being accurate. To the contrary, it is the Chinese 1.6 TFR that is probably accurate and the Iranian one that is questionable. Iran still has a crude birth rate that is 16.5/1000 with a median population age of 30. Indonesia, which has a similar crude birth rate and a similar median populationa ge somehow has a TFR that is 2.44.

    China’s raw births in 2017 was around 17.3 million. China’s raw birth cohort from 25 years ago, in 1992 was reported at just slightly over 21 million.

    Read More
    • Replies: @Dmitry

    To the contrary, it is the Chinese 1.6 TFR that is probably accurate
     
    Did one-child policy have much impact, actually?

    Despite it, mainland China's fertility rate is still higher than its cousins South Korea and Japan, higher than Hong Kong, and far higher than Taiwan.

    , @neutral
    Are you Chinese, as in racially a Han?
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  20. Dmitry says:
    @Duke of Qin
    TFR is merely a synthetic benchmark of imagined fertility and has it's own issues. The discrepancy in different Chinese domestic sources of estimated TFR have their origins in the one child policy itself and the "Sovok" system. Communist party demands birth control, you'll get data showing lower birth rates by those immediately responsible for enforcing birth restrictions. However, those whose careers aren't directly tied to enforcement won't necessarily report the corroborating data. For example census data reporting births being reported at X amount and then six years down the line, another data point will show X+Y number of students registering for school. Where did those extra Y students come from?

    Like cicerone stated, a better way to get an accurate reflection of actual fertility is using the crude birth rate (the number of children actually born) and adjusting for the median age of the population. The comparison to Iran is interesting, but flawed in that it is predicated on the Iranian TFR being accurate. To the contrary, it is the Chinese 1.6 TFR that is probably accurate and the Iranian one that is questionable. Iran still has a crude birth rate that is 16.5/1000 with a median population age of 30. Indonesia, which has a similar crude birth rate and a similar median populationa ge somehow has a TFR that is 2.44.

    China's raw births in 2017 was around 17.3 million. China's raw birth cohort from 25 years ago, in 1992 was reported at just slightly over 21 million.

    To the contrary, it is the Chinese 1.6 TFR that is probably accurate

    Did one-child policy have much impact, actually?

    Despite it, mainland China’s fertility rate is still higher than its cousins South Korea and Japan, higher than Hong Kong, and far higher than Taiwan.

    Read More
    • Replies: @Daniel Chieh
    Those countries, especially not Taiwan(an excellent example of a zombie population waiting to finally die off), are not the ones to run TFR competitions with.
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  21. @Jaakko Raipala

    The main cause of low birthrates is women’s education and gender equality. In wealthy societies, women (and many men) just don’t want kids no matter how much support they’re given. So the problem is more cultural than anything else.
     
    Such nonsense. Women have much higher desired child counts than men do. If it was entirely up to women's choice, every industrialized country would be well above replacement, if it was up entirely up to men's choice, birth rates would be even lower.

    Come on. Think of the real-world couples that you know. In how many cases did children appear because the woman demanded them from a reluctant man and in how many the opposite? Women want children much more than men do and the fertility collapse happens when sex without children becomes available to men.

    The main problem with women flooding education is that it leads to a situation where women move to cities at a much higher rate and there's a permanent gender imbalance in favor of men in the countryside and women in the cities. Women prefer the fields that are taught in giant universities while men are much more likely to want a trade or to start a business. Besides, the current inflation of educational status means that we now have tons of women with worthless liberal arts degrees who think they're "higher status" than mechanics or plumbers and women still want to date up.

    Yes, the higher education status bubble and women refusing to marry “down” is an especially acute problem in China and East Asia as a whole. It is Chinese nature to want to over educate, or at least over credential, their children thanks to two millennia of bureaucratic pressure selecting for education and credentialism. Girls are simply more responsive to the modern type of abusive education system that seems universal because they are more obedient and lass rambunctious than boys. Thankfully the Communists seem to be both cognizant of the problem and have started making half hearted efforts to redress this. Many university departments now have separate scoring criteria for men as opposed to women in admissions. For “soft” subjects which women gravitate towards and the gender imbalance is acute, women are required to have higher scores than men to gain admittance. I don’t think this goes far enough, but Chinese parents are particularly “touchy” about the prospects of their children getting ahead being kneecapped so I’m not sure how much the party can get away with in this area without facing serious public opposition.

    Read More
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  22. songbird says:
    @German_reader
    I vaguely recall having read a few years ago that China's supposed gender imbalance wasn't as bad as expected, because many people in rural areas just hadn't reported their daughters to the authorities at birth, thereby bypassing the one child rule. So I wonder how reliable any fertility rates data from China could be.

    What I heard is that the male imbalance exists in the countryside, not in the cities which sometimes have more women than men, due to patterns of migration.

    What the exact ratio is, who knows… but if it’s so bad, then how can some cities have more women than men?

    Read More
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  23. Trust me, women want kids. Women really want kids. Ever have a childless lover in her 30s? The saying “baby rabies” exists for a reason.

    But they don’t necessarily want as many kids as the state requires. Most women want 2-3, which is inadequate. They need to have 4-6.

    And as you already hinted at, the current life path many women take makes it very difficult for them to have kids in time (or at all).

    Ideal TFR is 4-6. More than 6 seems like it would make it too difficult to invest in children, and of course there are issues with dependency ratios. Though this can be mitigated by restoring child labor, which should be done immediately.

    First industrial country to achieve this will gain a massive competitive advantage over other states in one generation.

    Read More
    • Replies: @German_reader

    They need to have 4-6.
     
    Why? So one can afford to lose a few sons in war, or what's the thinking behind this?
    , @DFH

    Ever have a childless lover in her 30s?
     
    Obviously a woman's 30s are too late to have at best more than a couple of children though
    , @gate666
    how do you explain child free women?
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  24. @Dmitry
    In Iran, it's a similar situation.

    I read the Iran government reversed policy from 2014, and were soon able to probably recover to TFR almost 2 per women in the last year.

    By the way, what is ideal fertility rate for most countries? Surely in monoethnic county, perfect rate is 2.1 - steadily distributed over decades, so that there are not echoing waves, and everything relating to budget of country can be easily planned.

    You want to maximize quality population growth for the exact same reason you want to maximize quality economic growth.

    Population is power.

    Read More
    • Replies: @gate666
    overpopulation is disastrous.
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  25. @Thorfinnsson
    Trust me, women want kids. Women really want kids. Ever have a childless lover in her 30s? The saying "baby rabies" exists for a reason.

    But they don't necessarily want as many kids as the state requires. Most women want 2-3, which is inadequate. They need to have 4-6.

    And as you already hinted at, the current life path many women take makes it very difficult for them to have kids in time (or at all).

    Ideal TFR is 4-6. More than 6 seems like it would make it too difficult to invest in children, and of course there are issues with dependency ratios. Though this can be mitigated by restoring child labor, which should be done immediately.

    First industrial country to achieve this will gain a massive competitive advantage over other states in one generation.

    They need to have 4-6.

    Why? So one can afford to lose a few sons in war, or what’s the thinking behind this?

    Read More
    • Replies: @Thorfinnsson
    You have correctly identified one important reason. This is after all why Germany was able to overcome France after previously being the playground of French armies.

    But it also guarantees a larger gross domestic product and thus a higher likelihood of developing important achievement and lucrative business monopolies. Not an accident that America has Silicon Valley.

    Why is America more powerful than Germany? Is it because Americans are better soldiers and engineers than Germans? Obviously that is not the case.

    As I said before--population is power.
    , @songbird

    So one can afford to lose a few sons in war,
     
    Curiously, the communists in Vietnam seem to have launched their two-child policy in the 1960s.

    Mao, on the other hand, seems to have thought of the high number of Chinese as excellent cannon fodder, if his rhetoric had any truth in it.
    , @Intelligent Dasein

    Why? So one can afford to lose a few sons in war, or what’s the thinking behind this?
     
    The age structure of the population is of paramount importance. You need to maintain a proper population pyramid with low dependency ratios, otherwise the resulting financial stress and social dysfunction compounds into even greater infertility and the nation gets locked into a downward spiral. Large families improve the quality as well as the quantity of the stock.
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  26. dfordoom says: • Website
    @Jason Liu
    Financial incentives don't work, other countries have tried. Nor does extra maternity leave, child care, better wages, lower cost of living, housing prices, etc. Countries with those things still have abysmal native birth rates.

    The main cause of low birthrates is women's education and gender equality. In wealthy societies, women (and many men) just don't want kids no matter how much support they're given. So the problem is more cultural than anything else.

    People in developed countries tend towards permanent adolescence, fear of family responsibilities, and a fantasy that life is about having fun and doing whatever you want, and kids just chain you down. I catch myself thinking this way too, but then I remind myself that life was probably 95% work for all my ancestors.

    The main cause of low birthrates is women’s education and gender equality. In wealthy societies, women (and many men) just don’t want kids no matter how much support they’re given. So the problem is more cultural than anything else.

    Absolutely correct.

    Abolishing feminism is not merely desirable, it is essential for long-term survival.

    Abolishing feminism is probably not politically impossible in the West, which is why the West is not going to survive. On the other hand it is politically possible in China.

    Read More
    • Replies: @Jaakko Raipala
    The more feminist countries of northwest Europe have higher birth rates than southern and eastern European countries. A lot of conservative Muslim countries like Iran with extremely anti-feminist policies have tanked in fertility rate and they're now lower than Scandinavia.

    There's no evidence at all that feminism leads to lower birth rates.
    , @Rosie

    Abolishing feminism is not merely desirable, it is essential for long-term survival.
     
    Weren't you playing dumb about the forced prostitution solution on another thread?
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  27. @German_reader

    They need to have 4-6.
     
    Why? So one can afford to lose a few sons in war, or what's the thinking behind this?

    You have correctly identified one important reason. This is after all why Germany was able to overcome France after previously being the playground of French armies.

    But it also guarantees a larger gross domestic product and thus a higher likelihood of developing important achievement and lucrative business monopolies. Not an accident that America has Silicon Valley.

    Why is America more powerful than Germany? Is it because Americans are better soldiers and engineers than Germans? Obviously that is not the case.

    As I said before–population is power.

    Read More
    • Replies: @songbird

    As I said before–population is power.
     
    True on many levels - for instance, for ice peoples. But obviously not for all peoples at all times. Some recent population explosions in other places: Rwanda and Syria.

    Although, one could perhaps make the philosophical point that Germany and Japan's high populations propelled them toward war and thus massive self-destruction. Perhaps, that is not as true today because of other even more destructive factors that a high population is necessary to combat.
    , @David Davenport
    Why is America more powerful than Germany? Is it because Americans are better soldiers and engineers than Germans? Obviously that is not the case.

    Many present day American soldiers and engineers have German ancestors.
    , @Tyrion 2
    I'd rather be Singaporean than Chinese in Rawls' test.
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  28. songbird says:
    @German_reader

    They need to have 4-6.
     
    Why? So one can afford to lose a few sons in war, or what's the thinking behind this?

    So one can afford to lose a few sons in war,

    Curiously, the communists in Vietnam seem to have launched their two-child policy in the 1960s.

    Mao, on the other hand, seems to have thought of the high number of Chinese as excellent cannon fodder, if his rhetoric had any truth in it.

    Read More
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  29. @dfordoom

    The main cause of low birthrates is women’s education and gender equality. In wealthy societies, women (and many men) just don’t want kids no matter how much support they’re given. So the problem is more cultural than anything else.
     
    Absolutely correct.

    Abolishing feminism is not merely desirable, it is essential for long-term survival.

    Abolishing feminism is probably not politically impossible in the West, which is why the West is not going to survive. On the other hand it is politically possible in China.

    The more feminist countries of northwest Europe have higher birth rates than southern and eastern European countries. A lot of conservative Muslim countries like Iran with extremely anti-feminist policies have tanked in fertility rate and they’re now lower than Scandinavia.

    There’s no evidence at all that feminism leads to lower birth rates.

    Read More
    • Replies: @Daniel Chieh

    There’s no evidence at all that feminism leads to lower birth rates.

     

    After the Quiet Revolution and feminism, Quebecois birth rates went from 7 to 1.4. So yes, there's plenty of evidence.

    I agree that it is not the only, or even the most important issue as many commentators make it out to be - cost really is and overall culture beyond merely gender politics. But it causes problems on many levels anyway.
    , @neutral

    and they’re now lower than Scandinavia.
     
    How much of that is real Scandanavians (as in white people) as opposed to Somalians and other third worlders that Sweden considers Swedish?
    , @Thorfinnsson
    "Most feminist" is irrelevant in that EVERY industrial country is feminist, if we use the standards of what feminism proclaimed itself to be a century ago--or even half a century ago. Even Iran has gone feminist on this metric. Wtf kind of traditional society produces a female Fields medalist?

    Women in Italy and Greece are independent, seek "education", pursue careers, etc.

    But since these countries are much poorer and in particular for the young, they have lower birth rates.

    Since feminism has completely triumphed, it's not surprising that the movement in advanced countries has now degenerated into a bunch of silly craziness like trying to redefine everything as rape. Imagine if Nazi Germany had triumphed and liquidated the Jews. Do you think the antisemitism would've stopped? Or would they have gone after marginal or even imagined forms of Jewishness? My that's a suspiciously large nose you have Herr Mueller...

    The evidence that feminism leads to lower birth rates is the stunning collapse of fertility in the decade of the 1960s throughout the entire Western world. America for instance went from a TFR of nearly four to sub-replacement in around a decade.

    I suppose we can state that giving women the right to vote didn't collapse fertility.

    But programming women to pursue independent careers, enter male fields, get "educated", divorce when unhaaaaaappy, and sleep around certainly did. And that's something which exists in every advanced country without exception. China is starting to realize this is a mistake, and it's interesting to see how far they'll go.

    , @Mjk
    Jakko, those births are too immigrant muslims
    , @Mikey
    jakko, those births are to immigrants to get more welfare
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  30. songbird says:
    @Thorfinnsson
    You have correctly identified one important reason. This is after all why Germany was able to overcome France after previously being the playground of French armies.

    But it also guarantees a larger gross domestic product and thus a higher likelihood of developing important achievement and lucrative business monopolies. Not an accident that America has Silicon Valley.

    Why is America more powerful than Germany? Is it because Americans are better soldiers and engineers than Germans? Obviously that is not the case.

    As I said before--population is power.

    As I said before–population is power.

    True on many levels – for instance, for ice peoples. But obviously not for all peoples at all times. Some recent population explosions in other places: Rwanda and Syria.

    Although, one could perhaps make the philosophical point that Germany and Japan’s high populations propelled them toward war and thus massive self-destruction. Perhaps, that is not as true today because of other even more destructive factors that a high population is necessary to combat.

    Read More
    • Replies: @Thorfinnsson
    Even with garbage populations more people means more power relative to rival trash peoples, provided there's enough food. Though obviously a global goal should be to reduce the relative numbers of trash people, when in fact we've been doing the exact opposite in the past century. Leading to a real risk we'll be overwhelmed by a tidal wave of shitmen.

    Yes, more powerful countries may take the risk of starting wars and in so doing bring about their own destruction.

    But unless you're willing to suffer dramatic consequences like North Korea, the alternative to that isn't peaceful independence. It's that without even fighting you become a lackey of a great power. The only really independent countries in the world are America, China, and Russia. Then there are some prickly states like North Korea, Iran, Israel, Cuba, etc. which have partial independence owing to extreme determination. But they could be liquidated in 48 hours if someone got mad enough.

    A high population is still necessary for military power with modern technology. Who do you think produces all that high technology? People. And the experience of the two world wars is that high technology accelerates the intensity of combat and causes more, not fewer, casualties. In a hypothetical WW3 the entire planet will be a battlefield with no truly safe areas for civilians.
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  31. songbird says:

    Deng should have cozied to South Africa, instead of instituting one-child.

    Read More
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  32. @Dmitry

    In wealthy societies, women (and many men) just don’t want kids no matter how much support they’re given. So the problem is more cultural than anything else.
     
    In 50-100 years in the future (whenever it happens), when babies are produced to order by private companies using artificial wombs - fertility rates will likely naturally start to rise towards 2 again.

    In such a case, a government could also subsidize this part of the cost, or even for companies to bring up the children for the first few years. It will become much easier to adjust fertility rates up and down as necessary. Easily in the 22nd century, people will order children from companies, in the same way you now order pets.

    Yes, humanity as pets is indeed the future we all need to strive for.

    Maybe some of those humans won’t fit the correct zeitgeist for your world or just get forgotten?

    Read More
    • Replies: @Dmitry
    It will likely be regulated and normal childbirth legal terms, so end result not different to current procedures with surrogacy - simply surrogacy on mass scale will be suddenly available in form of factories of artificial wombs.

    So you cannot exactly throw your child away like the betta fish in your picture, but perhaps mothers on average, all other things equal, may be less emotionally caring for children they did not have to suffer pregnancy for (although this issue already exists with adoption and surrogacy).

    Probably, sign a contract with a company and provide gametes to them. Forget about it for 9 months. And then they email you when it's ready, and deliver a clean baby to the showroom (or as many identical, or non-identical siblings - as you order).

    Such situation would rapidly become a mainstream way to have a child in developed countries, and increased convenience would result with significant increases in birthrates in those countries.

    Obviously there would have to be government regulation to prevent comic book scenarios (e.g. oligarchs creating their private armies). And it would be more difficult to prevent a scenario that in less ethical countries - the government itself might mass produce children without parents this way.

    -

    Imagine people in 19th century, trying to imagine implications of planes, television and computers though. Easy for us to predict a lot of the technologies like this, but envisaging actual implications of them is - more challenging.

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  33. @Dmitry

    To the contrary, it is the Chinese 1.6 TFR that is probably accurate
     
    Did one-child policy have much impact, actually?

    Despite it, mainland China's fertility rate is still higher than its cousins South Korea and Japan, higher than Hong Kong, and far higher than Taiwan.

    Those countries, especially not Taiwan(an excellent example of a zombie population waiting to finally die off), are not the ones to run TFR competitions with.

    Read More
    • Replies: @Dmitry
    Yes, but they are China's most similar to (culturally, ethnically, geographically) countries.

    All of them, aside from North Korea (which is only slightly higher), have a lower fertility rate, than mainland China after one-child policy

    So my question to ask - whether one-child policy has had much impact in China? In an alternative history without one-child policy, would the fertility rate be very different?

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  34. @Jaakko Raipala
    The more feminist countries of northwest Europe have higher birth rates than southern and eastern European countries. A lot of conservative Muslim countries like Iran with extremely anti-feminist policies have tanked in fertility rate and they're now lower than Scandinavia.

    There's no evidence at all that feminism leads to lower birth rates.

    There’s no evidence at all that feminism leads to lower birth rates.

    After the Quiet Revolution and feminism, Quebecois birth rates went from 7 to 1.4. So yes, there’s plenty of evidence.

    I agree that it is not the only, or even the most important issue as many commentators make it out to be – cost really is and overall culture beyond merely gender politics. But it causes problems on many levels anyway.

    Read More
    • Replies: @Twinkie

    After the Quiet Revolution and feminism, Quebecois birth rates went from 7 to 1.4. So yes, there’s plenty of evidence.
     
    Do you have data on (Catholic) church attendance rates in the same period in Quebec?

    I ask, because I suspect that feminism as such is a symptom, not the causal agent.
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  35. songbird says:

    That they are just now doing this shows how hidebound and unwieldy the CCP is, IMO. Granted, it is still arguably more functional than many other political parties, such as Merkel’s.

    Read More
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  36. Twinkie says:

    Read More
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  37. Dmitry says:
    @Daniel Chieh
    Those countries, especially not Taiwan(an excellent example of a zombie population waiting to finally die off), are not the ones to run TFR competitions with.

    Yes, but they are China’s most similar to (culturally, ethnically, geographically) countries.

    All of them, aside from North Korea (which is only slightly higher), have a lower fertility rate, than mainland China after one-child policy

    So my question to ask – whether one-child policy has had much impact in China? In an alternative history without one-child policy, would the fertility rate be very different?

    Read More
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  38. Anonymous[276] • Disclaimer says:
    @Dmitry

    In wealthy societies, women (and many men) just don’t want kids no matter how much support they’re given. So the problem is more cultural than anything else.
     
    In 50-100 years in the future (whenever it happens), when babies are produced to order by private companies using artificial wombs - fertility rates will likely naturally start to rise towards 2 again.

    In such a case, a government could also subsidize this part of the cost, or even for companies to bring up the children for the first few years. It will become much easier to adjust fertility rates up and down as necessary. Easily in the 22nd century, people will order children from companies, in the same way you now order pets.

    In that scenario, fertility rates have not naturally risen. They’ve artificially or unnaturally risen towards 2, and naturally collapsed to Zero.

    Read More
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  39. DFH says:
    @Thorfinnsson
    Trust me, women want kids. Women really want kids. Ever have a childless lover in her 30s? The saying "baby rabies" exists for a reason.

    But they don't necessarily want as many kids as the state requires. Most women want 2-3, which is inadequate. They need to have 4-6.

    And as you already hinted at, the current life path many women take makes it very difficult for them to have kids in time (or at all).

    Ideal TFR is 4-6. More than 6 seems like it would make it too difficult to invest in children, and of course there are issues with dependency ratios. Though this can be mitigated by restoring child labor, which should be done immediately.

    First industrial country to achieve this will gain a massive competitive advantage over other states in one generation.

    Ever have a childless lover in her 30s?

    Obviously a woman’s 30s are too late to have at best more than a couple of children though

    Read More
    • Replies: @Guillaume Tell
    How does 28/31/33/37/40/43 sound?

    Not too bad for a woman (mine) who was ALMOST childless when she reached the age of 30s.

    The main cause was neither lack of government support not affordable housing but being surrounded by loser beta males in higher education and university. Until she met me.
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  40. Dmitry says:
    @Daniel Chieh
    Yes, humanity as pets is indeed the future we all need to strive for.

    http://25.media.tumblr.com/tumblr_m8rvmlJcce1qj3louo4_1280.jpg

    Maybe some of those humans won't fit the correct zeitgeist for your world or just get forgotten?

    http://i.imgur.com/i9ETZk0.jpg

    It will likely be regulated and normal childbirth legal terms, so end result not different to current procedures with surrogacy – simply surrogacy on mass scale will be suddenly available in form of factories of artificial wombs.

    So you cannot exactly throw your child away like the betta fish in your picture, but perhaps mothers on average, all other things equal, may be less emotionally caring for children they did not have to suffer pregnancy for (although this issue already exists with adoption and surrogacy).

    Probably, sign a contract with a company and provide gametes to them. Forget about it for 9 months. And then they email you when it’s ready, and deliver a clean baby to the showroom (or as many identical, or non-identical siblings – as you order).

    Such situation would rapidly become a mainstream way to have a child in developed countries, and increased convenience would result with significant increases in birthrates in those countries.

    Obviously there would have to be government regulation to prevent comic book scenarios (e.g. oligarchs creating their private armies). And it would be more difficult to prevent a scenario that in less ethical countries – the government itself might mass produce children without parents this way.

    -

    Imagine people in 19th century, trying to imagine implications of planes, television and computers though. Easy for us to predict a lot of the technologies like this, but envisaging actual implications of them is – more challenging.

    Read More
    • Replies: @Daniel Chieh

    Imagine people in 19th century, trying to imagine implications of planes, television and computers though
     
    Some reactionaries did. Every one of their negative predictions have come true - whether the destruction of the family, the loss of the traditional economy, ruination of morals or the monoculture of the world.
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  41. J says: • Website
    @Dmitry
    Even secular population is also now above replacement rates there.

    But this is not a normal situation - it seems collective fear response to horror of being outnumbered by Arabs who hate you, as well as religious who want to impose their lifestyle on you.

    If you live in Middle East with millions of uncivilized Arabs both inside and outside your country (and also growing religious Jewish cults inside the country and which want to return it to medievalist superstition), then rational decision is - to apply for visa to escape and live in Europe, Australia, Canada, etc. But if you have to have family and future in such an environment, it would feel much more normal to aim for 5 kids than 1.


    -

    Considering the Arabs are also:
    https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=d5Cg6Qx1wSo

    How rational is a decision to move to a low fertility country and have no grandchildren? The rational decision for a Jew desiring to have a traditional multigenerational family is to move asap to Israel. BTW, the demographic effect of Arab terror is zero.

    Read More
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  42. Anonymous[276] • Disclaimer says:
    @Jaakko Raipala

    The main cause of low birthrates is women’s education and gender equality. In wealthy societies, women (and many men) just don’t want kids no matter how much support they’re given. So the problem is more cultural than anything else.
     
    Such nonsense. Women have much higher desired child counts than men do. If it was entirely up to women's choice, every industrialized country would be well above replacement, if it was up entirely up to men's choice, birth rates would be even lower.

    Come on. Think of the real-world couples that you know. In how many cases did children appear because the woman demanded them from a reluctant man and in how many the opposite? Women want children much more than men do and the fertility collapse happens when sex without children becomes available to men.

    The main problem with women flooding education is that it leads to a situation where women move to cities at a much higher rate and there's a permanent gender imbalance in favor of men in the countryside and women in the cities. Women prefer the fields that are taught in giant universities while men are much more likely to want a trade or to start a business. Besides, the current inflation of educational status means that we now have tons of women with worthless liberal arts degrees who think they're "higher status" than mechanics or plumbers and women still want to date up.

    TFR is the average number of children a woman has and it has fallen because women have much higher relative social status now. And women have much higher relative social status now because educational, employment, career, and political opportunities are available to them and even heavily subsidized and promoted for them. In general, social status derives from wealth or prestige of occupation, and prestigious occupations, whether or not they’re remunerative, generally require educational and or professional credentials.

    Now that the average woman gets educated, has various careers, and can participate in politics, she has much higher relative status and has higher status than a large swathe of the male population. And because women naturally have an aversion to pair bonding and mating with men of lower status, this restricts the pool of acceptable mates for most women and thus the fertility rate has dropped.

    Until relatively recently, women were restricted from education and most occupations and public life. Women had to depend on a man for sustenance. Even a poor working man had higher relative status than any woman because he could earn a certain wage independently that no woman could, he could access certain educational opportunities that women couldn’t, and he had the franchise and could participate in public life and assume political positions and power while women couldn’t. Every man in society had higher status than women in important respects, and this meant that the amount of desirable and acceptable mates for women were much higher, and thus fertility rates were much higher.

    Read More
    • Replies: @Twinkie

    Now that the average woman gets educated, has various careers, and can participate in politics, she has much higher relative status and has higher status than a large swathe of the male population. And because women naturally have an aversion to pair bonding and mating with men of lower status, this restricts the pool of acceptable mates for most women and thus the fertility rate has dropped.
     
    You just described the plight of educated black women in America. Yet they have higher fertility than whites and Asians in America who are less subject to the female-male education disparity.
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  43. 5371 says:
    @Dmitry

    From a national perspective (barring some specific but now largely irrelevant situations, such as climbing out of a Malthusian trap), the more the merrier:
     
    Assuming country has not reached already ideal population density, or is not threatened by war, or superpower rivalries.

    But let's say in case of country like Norway, where they have no military threats and their borders and relations with their neighbours are stable.

    Perfect situation would seem to me where fertility rate maintains perfectly constant population. And immigration policy could be set to allow no more people in than leave.

    In such a situation, everything would be very easy to plan, dependency ratio would remain always constant, and all kinds of budgets, from school funding to healthcare and pensions, could be predetermined years before.

    Discussion sounds a little out of place now, where almost no industrialized country can maintain fertility rate of 2.1.

    But in the next century or so - by then children will be produced for order in artificial wombs, and fertility rate could be easily raised or lowered by government.

    [But in the next century or so – by then children will be produced for order in artificial wombs, and fertility rate could be easily raised or lowered by government.]

    By then humans will have been abolished by AI, why are you even discussing anything so backward as their reproduction?

    Read More
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  44. @Jaakko Raipala

    The main cause of low birthrates is women’s education and gender equality. In wealthy societies, women (and many men) just don’t want kids no matter how much support they’re given. So the problem is more cultural than anything else.
     
    Such nonsense. Women have much higher desired child counts than men do. If it was entirely up to women's choice, every industrialized country would be well above replacement, if it was up entirely up to men's choice, birth rates would be even lower.

    Come on. Think of the real-world couples that you know. In how many cases did children appear because the woman demanded them from a reluctant man and in how many the opposite? Women want children much more than men do and the fertility collapse happens when sex without children becomes available to men.

    The main problem with women flooding education is that it leads to a situation where women move to cities at a much higher rate and there's a permanent gender imbalance in favor of men in the countryside and women in the cities. Women prefer the fields that are taught in giant universities while men are much more likely to want a trade or to start a business. Besides, the current inflation of educational status means that we now have tons of women with worthless liberal arts degrees who think they're "higher status" than mechanics or plumbers and women still want to date up.

    Women have much higher desired child counts than men do. If it was entirely up to women’s choice, every industrialized country would be well above replacement, if it was up entirely up to men’s choice, birth rates would be even lower.

    Yes, but it doesn’t change his (correct) analysis. There is a well-known pattern between education and fertility. The more educated women become, the more they delay the age of initial child-bearing. You see this in developing country after developing country.

    However, education is just one of many factors. Liu is correct to emphasize cultural factors. Jaako’s point about Scandinavia may be true, but it doesn’t change the argument. Scandinavia still has sub-replacement TFR aside from perhaps Iceland.

    Religiosity is the bigger factor. The importance here is intensity and not shallowness. Iran is a superficially religious country but many Iranians will tell you that the population isn’t nearly as fanatic as the leadership. The same pattern is true in Turkey, where atheism among Turks is rare but their religious intensity is quite low whereas the kurds are more pious. For the kurds, they also have the demographic pressure, which acts as a co-enabler and therefore pushes up fertility.

    Then there’s also the K-selection and r-selection theory, though I am not a biologist so I do not know how accurate that theory is. Could possibly be a factor.

    Generally, money is probably the least important issue. Far more important are the social and cultural values, which also informs how much you want to educate your girls. One area which someone mentioned is real estate and I’d probably agree to that to a smaller extent. The gigantic rise of debt-fuelled real estate prices all over the West, and increasingly even in EE, over the past 15-20 years has priced many young couples out of the market and forces them to work longer to get a decent housing in many countries. Not everyone wants or even can live in the rural areas. Jobs and economic activity is tied to urban areas. That delayed investment probably also affects TFR at the margins.

    Read More
    • Replies: @dfordoom

    One area which someone mentioned is real estate and I’d probably agree to that to a smaller extent.
     
    That's a line that Steve Sailer has been pushing for years ("affordable family formation") and he's undoubtedly correct. It is important. It's much less important than cultural factors but it is still important. And housing costs are absolutely the key to affordable family formation.
    , @dfordoom

    Far more important are the social and cultural values, which also informs how much you want to educate your girls.
     
    To be honest our problem in the West is too much education for everybody. Education is one of those things that is good in moderation. Too much can be extremely harmful. Higher education should only be available to a very small minority who actually need it.

    Too much education is bad for everybody but it's especially damaging to women. Women do not need higher education. Society does not need women with higher education. Our obsession with fairness is destroying us. We might have a an education system that is fair and offers equal opportunities to women but how much good does that do us if our society is going down the toilet because we've ceased to reproduce?

    Survival matters more than fairness. Survival will require some very drastic decisions (such as massive cuts to education spending). That isn't going to happen through the ballot box.
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  45. Twinkie says:
    @Anonymous
    TFR is the average number of children a woman has and it has fallen because women have much higher relative social status now. And women have much higher relative social status now because educational, employment, career, and political opportunities are available to them and even heavily subsidized and promoted for them. In general, social status derives from wealth or prestige of occupation, and prestigious occupations, whether or not they're remunerative, generally require educational and or professional credentials.

    Now that the average woman gets educated, has various careers, and can participate in politics, she has much higher relative status and has higher status than a large swathe of the male population. And because women naturally have an aversion to pair bonding and mating with men of lower status, this restricts the pool of acceptable mates for most women and thus the fertility rate has dropped.

    Until relatively recently, women were restricted from education and most occupations and public life. Women had to depend on a man for sustenance. Even a poor working man had higher relative status than any woman because he could earn a certain wage independently that no woman could, he could access certain educational opportunities that women couldn't, and he had the franchise and could participate in public life and assume political positions and power while women couldn't. Every man in society had higher status than women in important respects, and this meant that the amount of desirable and acceptable mates for women were much higher, and thus fertility rates were much higher.

    Now that the average woman gets educated, has various careers, and can participate in politics, she has much higher relative status and has higher status than a large swathe of the male population. And because women naturally have an aversion to pair bonding and mating with men of lower status, this restricts the pool of acceptable mates for most women and thus the fertility rate has dropped.

    You just described the plight of educated black women in America. Yet they have higher fertility than whites and Asians in America who are less subject to the female-male education disparity.

    Read More
    • Replies: @Polish Perspective
    The two arguments do not need to cancel out each other. Education is not the sole lens to view the world through. Biological (r vs K-selection) factors also matter. Blacks have higher fertility all over the world, which is why African TFR is exploding. Educating them will still help lower fertility, even if it may level off at a higher level than for K-selected populations like East Asians.

    Social factors (education), biology (r vs K), religious intensity. Monetary support. Everything counts. It's not either/or.

    , @Anonymous
    Cross racial comparisons are different as different groups have different tendencies. But I'm not sure that it's true educated black women have higher fertility rates.

    http://www.nbcnews.com/id/32379727/ns/health-sexual_health/t/marriage-eludes-high-achieving-black-women/

    Among black women with postgraduate educations born between 1956 and 1960, the median age at which they gave birth for the first time was 34 years old. This was about the same as it was for white women in the same demographic. But once white women reached their 30s, many more of them did give birth, often more than once. Many black women did not.

    One big reason why these women remained childless is, as one might expect, that they go unmarried, experts say. Among highly educated women of both races, about 22 percent between the ages of 20 and 45 were single in the 1970s. But then that number diverged. It has remained the same for white women, but now 38 percent of black women have never been married.

    “Their marriage chances have declined,” Brueckner explained. “This may sound trivial but one reason is that they outnumber men in this education group.” The disparity in education is important because Americans have a strong tendency to marry those with equal levels of education, a trend that has only grown stronger since World War II. “So since there are fewer men with the same education,” Brueckner continued, “you either have to find another group you can marry or you are out of luck. You have nowhere to go.”
     
    , @Thorfinnsson
    Blacks are R-selected, and in traditional West African society women do most of the work and families are centered on mothers as paternity is uncertain. Men are closer to nieces and nephews than their alleged children.

    In America blacks are wards of the state, and the stream of payments mostly flow through black women.

    And the fertility of American blacks has collapsed as well (thank God) and is not much higher than civilized races now.

    https://hailtoyou.files.wordpress.com/2015/12/fertility19802013_b.png?w=640

    Still too high of course--ideally we'd like to get black TFR hovering around zero.
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  46. Twinkie says:
    @Daniel Chieh

    There’s no evidence at all that feminism leads to lower birth rates.

     

    After the Quiet Revolution and feminism, Quebecois birth rates went from 7 to 1.4. So yes, there's plenty of evidence.

    I agree that it is not the only, or even the most important issue as many commentators make it out to be - cost really is and overall culture beyond merely gender politics. But it causes problems on many levels anyway.

    After the Quiet Revolution and feminism, Quebecois birth rates went from 7 to 1.4. So yes, there’s plenty of evidence.

    Do you have data on (Catholic) church attendance rates in the same period in Quebec?

    I ask, because I suspect that feminism as such is a symptom, not the causal agent.

    Read More
    • Replies: @Daniel Chieh
    Birth control is the most likely culprit, tbh. Bypassing the biological method to motivate the "creation of children" has its consequences; likely natalism in and of itself was not really that much of an instinct.
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  47. @Twinkie

    Now that the average woman gets educated, has various careers, and can participate in politics, she has much higher relative status and has higher status than a large swathe of the male population. And because women naturally have an aversion to pair bonding and mating with men of lower status, this restricts the pool of acceptable mates for most women and thus the fertility rate has dropped.
     
    You just described the plight of educated black women in America. Yet they have higher fertility than whites and Asians in America who are less subject to the female-male education disparity.

    The two arguments do not need to cancel out each other. Education is not the sole lens to view the world through. Biological (r vs K-selection) factors also matter. Blacks have higher fertility all over the world, which is why African TFR is exploding. Educating them will still help lower fertility, even if it may level off at a higher level than for K-selected populations like East Asians.

    Social factors (education), biology (r vs K), religious intensity. Monetary support. Everything counts. It’s not either/or.

    Read More
    • Agree: Twinkie, dfordoom
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  48. @Dmitry
    It will likely be regulated and normal childbirth legal terms, so end result not different to current procedures with surrogacy - simply surrogacy on mass scale will be suddenly available in form of factories of artificial wombs.

    So you cannot exactly throw your child away like the betta fish in your picture, but perhaps mothers on average, all other things equal, may be less emotionally caring for children they did not have to suffer pregnancy for (although this issue already exists with adoption and surrogacy).

    Probably, sign a contract with a company and provide gametes to them. Forget about it for 9 months. And then they email you when it's ready, and deliver a clean baby to the showroom (or as many identical, or non-identical siblings - as you order).

    Such situation would rapidly become a mainstream way to have a child in developed countries, and increased convenience would result with significant increases in birthrates in those countries.

    Obviously there would have to be government regulation to prevent comic book scenarios (e.g. oligarchs creating their private armies). And it would be more difficult to prevent a scenario that in less ethical countries - the government itself might mass produce children without parents this way.

    -

    Imagine people in 19th century, trying to imagine implications of planes, television and computers though. Easy for us to predict a lot of the technologies like this, but envisaging actual implications of them is - more challenging.

    Imagine people in 19th century, trying to imagine implications of planes, television and computers though

    Some reactionaries did. Every one of their negative predictions have come true – whether the destruction of the family, the loss of the traditional economy, ruination of morals or the monoculture of the world.

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    • Replies: @Thorfinnsson
    Worth noting that South Africa under Verwoerd prohibited television as he considered it to be destructive of community and family.
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  49. @Twinkie

    After the Quiet Revolution and feminism, Quebecois birth rates went from 7 to 1.4. So yes, there’s plenty of evidence.
     
    Do you have data on (Catholic) church attendance rates in the same period in Quebec?

    I ask, because I suspect that feminism as such is a symptom, not the causal agent.

    Birth control is the most likely culprit, tbh. Bypassing the biological method to motivate the “creation of children” has its consequences; likely natalism in and of itself was not really that much of an instinct.

    Read More
    • Replies: @Anonymous
    Could it really be that simple?

    Banning contraception and abortion would have no impact on sex drives. And prostitution would become largely infeasible without contraception and abortion. But sex drives would remain, and people have to satisfy them, so they would be more inclined to seek out marriage and procreative sex.

    It's possible that it might be that simple.
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  50. Speaking of China.

    US decides to further escalate trade war with China on two fronts

    The US has decided to further escalate its trade war with China on two separate fronts involving restrictions on Chinese companies for acquiring advanced western technology companies, and forcing new reforms targeted at China at the World Trade Organization, according to people familiar with the development.

    After a reset in the strained alliance with the European Union last week, the US signalled its new strategy to intensify the trade battle indefinitely. US Trade Representative Ambassador Robert Lighthizer gave an early indication on 26 July that “it could take years to resolve trade problems with China, suggesting that escalating tariff battle could continue indefinitely,”

    The US has a strong hand in any general trade war due to their massive bilateral trade deficit, but they are mistaken if they think they can stunt China’s technological prowess through trade.

    I recall the decision a few years ago to ban sales of Nvidia and AMD GPUs to be used in Chinese supercomputers. The guiding assumption was that the Chinese were helpless without Western tech. It backfired badly. The Chinese simply built their own domestic one, and it was the fastest one for years.

    A few days ago, Daimler deepened their co-operation with Baidu in self-driving cars, further highlighting that US firms no longer have monopoly on advanced technology. It is much too late for these desperate and panicky rear-guard actions, though it is nevertheless genuinely amusing to watch the rising fear emanating from Washington, as it realises that its hegemonic technological leadership is now slowly being confined to a thing of the past.

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  51. Anonymous[276] • Disclaimer says:
    @Twinkie

    Now that the average woman gets educated, has various careers, and can participate in politics, she has much higher relative status and has higher status than a large swathe of the male population. And because women naturally have an aversion to pair bonding and mating with men of lower status, this restricts the pool of acceptable mates for most women and thus the fertility rate has dropped.
     
    You just described the plight of educated black women in America. Yet they have higher fertility than whites and Asians in America who are less subject to the female-male education disparity.

    Cross racial comparisons are different as different groups have different tendencies. But I’m not sure that it’s true educated black women have higher fertility rates.

    http://www.nbcnews.com/id/32379727/ns/health-sexual_health/t/marriage-eludes-high-achieving-black-women/

    Among black women with postgraduate educations born between 1956 and 1960, the median age at which they gave birth for the first time was 34 years old. This was about the same as it was for white women in the same demographic. But once white women reached their 30s, many more of them did give birth, often more than once. Many black women did not.

    One big reason why these women remained childless is, as one might expect, that they go unmarried, experts say. Among highly educated women of both races, about 22 percent between the ages of 20 and 45 were single in the 1970s. But then that number diverged. It has remained the same for white women, but now 38 percent of black women have never been married.

    “Their marriage chances have declined,” Brueckner explained. “This may sound trivial but one reason is that they outnumber men in this education group.” The disparity in education is important because Americans have a strong tendency to marry those with equal levels of education, a trend that has only grown stronger since World War II. “So since there are fewer men with the same education,” Brueckner continued, “you either have to find another group you can marry or you are out of luck. You have nowhere to go.”

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  52. Anonymous[276] • Disclaimer says:
    @Daniel Chieh
    Birth control is the most likely culprit, tbh. Bypassing the biological method to motivate the "creation of children" has its consequences; likely natalism in and of itself was not really that much of an instinct.

    Could it really be that simple?

    Banning contraception and abortion would have no impact on sex drives. And prostitution would become largely infeasible without contraception and abortion. But sex drives would remain, and people have to satisfy them, so they would be more inclined to seek out marriage and procreative sex.

    It’s possible that it might be that simple.

    Read More
    • Replies: @reiner Tor
    Smart people would figure out loopholes or how to get contraception or abortion anyway. They’d tend to go for types of sex less likely to result in conception, like oral and anal sex, etc. But it would wonderfully increase fertility among the least desirable demographics.

    Nothing is that simple.
    , @DFH

    And prostitution would become largely infeasible without contraception and abortion
     
    This is why prostitution did not exist before the 1960s
    , @Daniel Chieh
    It basically is. Parsimony is surprisingly good at explaining trends at times.
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  53. @Anonymous
    Could it really be that simple?

    Banning contraception and abortion would have no impact on sex drives. And prostitution would become largely infeasible without contraception and abortion. But sex drives would remain, and people have to satisfy them, so they would be more inclined to seek out marriage and procreative sex.

    It's possible that it might be that simple.

    Smart people would figure out loopholes or how to get contraception or abortion anyway. They’d tend to go for types of sex less likely to result in conception, like oral and anal sex, etc. But it would wonderfully increase fertility among the least desirable demographics.

    Nothing is that simple.

    Read More
    • Replies: @Anonymous
    I'm assuming strong enforcement. And I agree that in my scenario, there'd be differential fertility. To mitigate that, you'd probably have to introduce things like eliminating welfare. But I'm trying to keep my scenario simple. It seems reasonable to conclude that TFR would rise simply by eliminating contraception and abortion. Sex drives remain, and marriage and natural sex will be the dominant outlet for most people. Women especially are not going to just have oral and anal sex, which are generally unpleasant for them.
    , @Thorfinnsson
    People did this before birth control existed. Not like pulling out is terribly challenging (and yes, contrary to myth, it is fairly effective with some caveats). The difference is that birth control makes the process effortless and less subject to "accidents" which are inevitable in romance for various reasons.
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  54. DFH says:
    @Anonymous
    Could it really be that simple?

    Banning contraception and abortion would have no impact on sex drives. And prostitution would become largely infeasible without contraception and abortion. But sex drives would remain, and people have to satisfy them, so they would be more inclined to seek out marriage and procreative sex.

    It's possible that it might be that simple.

    And prostitution would become largely infeasible without contraception and abortion

    This is why prostitution did not exist before the 1960s

    Read More
    • LOL: Thorfinnsson
    • Replies: @Anonymous
    I'm aware that prostitution existed before the 60s and indeed has always existed. The point is that without contraception and abortion, prostitution would not be more than a small outlet for the cumulative sex drive of society.
    , @Tyrion 2
    I award that Anonymous poster the prize for dumbest comment of the day.

    Bizarre.
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  55. Bill P says:

    Having a kid is not worth it for your typical urban Chinese. The hoops you have to jump through and bribes you have to pay to get them in a decent school are prohibitive, and what’s more the cities are so polluted you practically have to invest in a fallout shelter type air filter to keep them healthy.

    Most of the women having kids in the big cities are probably waidi ren– rural migrants at the bottom of the social hierarchy. Give Chinese an incentive to have kids and, just like Maoist times, you’ll get a lot more peasant kids.

    Shanghai tfr dipped below replacement over 50 years ago, IIRC. There really is a big quality vs. quantity issue in China. Everybody knows it, but nobody is really doing anything about it. The Chinese I know who had more than one kid left the country before doing so. Most of the others I knew didn’t even have kids last I checked, when they would have been pushing 40. These are big city, educated, high human capital Chinese.

    It’s a disaster in the making, and given the Chinese tendency to double down when things deteriorate, I don’t expect the trend to change anytime soon.

    The only hope China has of raising fertility in the near term lies in the countryside, but without some reversal or at least serious slowdown of the urbanization drive it’s not going to happen. And anyway the government is trying really hard to decrease the number of peasants because of the aforementioned quality issue, so they’d never go for a scheme that boosted rural fertility.

    Read More
    • Replies: @Twinkie

    Shanghai tfr dipped below replacement over 50 years ago, IIRC.
     
    Historically, cities have been HUGE population sinks. A high degree of urbanization is a surefire route to demographic decline.
    , @Daniel Chieh

    The hoops you have to jump through and bribes you have to pay to get them in a decent school are prohibitive, and what’s more the cities are so polluted you practically have to invest in a fallout shelter type air filter to keep them healthy.
     
    Fake news from someone who also is advocating for a global confederation to isolate China.

    "Status-adjusted child rearing" cost is indeed prohibitive, however. That's going to be a problem in all modernized society, and more so in China due to the ever spiraling virtue signaling of status with education.
    , @Pumblechook
    I think these stories about the demographic demise of China are vastly exaggerated.

    Last year they had around 18 million children - which is pretty much the same as the combined total of the EU and the entirety of the Americas. If repeated each year for the total of a Chinese life expectancy (let's say around 75 years) then this produces a population of 1.2-1.3 billion, which is more or less the current population.

    Now of course the number of births will decrease as the age group pyramids get less bottom-heavy (unless TFR increases) but even if TFR stays the same the Chinese will still be pumping out 13-14 million babies in 50 years time. Considering Russia is happy with 1.8 million these days, rest assured the Chinese will still be having more than enough to maintain civilisational cohesion and strength in numbers. Of course, if nothing changes in 150 years then you can start worrying but that's pointless.
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  56. LondonBob says:
    @Anonymous
    I think high real estate prices are as big of a factor as gender equality.

    English Puritans had religious and cultural ideology, in New England they also had unlimited land.

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  57. Anonymous[276] • Disclaimer says:
    @reiner Tor
    Smart people would figure out loopholes or how to get contraception or abortion anyway. They’d tend to go for types of sex less likely to result in conception, like oral and anal sex, etc. But it would wonderfully increase fertility among the least desirable demographics.

    Nothing is that simple.

    I’m assuming strong enforcement. And I agree that in my scenario, there’d be differential fertility. To mitigate that, you’d probably have to introduce things like eliminating welfare. But I’m trying to keep my scenario simple. It seems reasonable to conclude that TFR would rise simply by eliminating contraception and abortion. Sex drives remain, and marriage and natural sex will be the dominant outlet for most people. Women especially are not going to just have oral and anal sex, which are generally unpleasant for them.

    Read More
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  58. Anonymous[276] • Disclaimer says:
    @DFH

    And prostitution would become largely infeasible without contraception and abortion
     
    This is why prostitution did not exist before the 1960s

    I’m aware that prostitution existed before the 60s and indeed has always existed. The point is that without contraception and abortion, prostitution would not be more than a small outlet for the cumulative sex drive of society.

    Read More
    • Replies: @for-the-record
    I’m aware that prostitution existed before the 60s and indeed has always existed.

    As our old street names (alas, now disappeared) confirm:

    Gropecunt Lane /ˈɡroʊpkʌnt ˈleɪn/ was a street name found in English towns and cities during the Middle Ages, believed to be a reference to the prostitution centred on those areas; it was normal practice for a medieval street name to reflect the street's function or the economic activity taking place within it. Gropecunt, the earliest known use of which is in about 1230, appears to have been derived as a compound of the words grope and cunt. Streets with that name were often in the busiest parts of medieval towns and cities, and at least one appears to have been an important thoroughfare.

    Although the name was once common throughout England, changes in attitude resulted in its replacement by more innocuous versions such as Grape Lane. A variation of Gropecunt was last recorded as a street name in 1561.

    Variations include Gropecunte, Gropecountelane, Gropecontelane, Groppecountelane and Gropekuntelane. There were once many such street names in England, but all have now been bowdlerised.[1] In the city of York, for instance, Grapcunt Lane—grāp is the Old English word for grope[2]—was renamed as the more acceptable Grape Lane.[3]
     
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  59. Twinkie says:
    @Bill P
    Having a kid is not worth it for your typical urban Chinese. The hoops you have to jump through and bribes you have to pay to get them in a decent school are prohibitive, and what's more the cities are so polluted you practically have to invest in a fallout shelter type air filter to keep them healthy.

    Most of the women having kids in the big cities are probably waidi ren-- rural migrants at the bottom of the social hierarchy. Give Chinese an incentive to have kids and, just like Maoist times, you'll get a lot more peasant kids.

    Shanghai tfr dipped below replacement over 50 years ago, IIRC. There really is a big quality vs. quantity issue in China. Everybody knows it, but nobody is really doing anything about it. The Chinese I know who had more than one kid left the country before doing so. Most of the others I knew didn't even have kids last I checked, when they would have been pushing 40. These are big city, educated, high human capital Chinese.

    It's a disaster in the making, and given the Chinese tendency to double down when things deteriorate, I don't expect the trend to change anytime soon.

    The only hope China has of raising fertility in the near term lies in the countryside, but without some reversal or at least serious slowdown of the urbanization drive it's not going to happen. And anyway the government is trying really hard to decrease the number of peasants because of the aforementioned quality issue, so they'd never go for a scheme that boosted rural fertility.

    Shanghai tfr dipped below replacement over 50 years ago, IIRC.

    Historically, cities have been HUGE population sinks. A high degree of urbanization is a surefire route to demographic decline.

    Read More
    • Agree: Talha
    • Replies: @DFH
    Actually in China, at least in the Song, that wasn't true
    , @Thorfinnsson
    Historically this was mainly due to infectious disease.

    If cities were made affordable and child friendly I don't see why they would need to be population sinks. They might remain minor population sinks owing to abundance of entertainment options, but nothing dramatic.

    Was Tokyo a population sink before the American population? I kind of doubt it. Probably had lesser fertility than the countryside, but I bet it was above replacement.
    , @dfordoom

    Historically, cities have been HUGE population sinks. A high degree of urbanization is a surefire route to demographic decline.
     
    Cities used to be population sinks because prior to modern sanitation the death rates were astronomical.

    So why exactly does urbanization still lead to population decline? Why do cities encourage low birth rates? I'm sure we can all think of lots of plausible explanations but do we actually know the real answer?
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  60. @Jason Liu
    Financial incentives don't work, other countries have tried. Nor does extra maternity leave, child care, better wages, lower cost of living, housing prices, etc. Countries with those things still have abysmal native birth rates.

    The main cause of low birthrates is women's education and gender equality. In wealthy societies, women (and many men) just don't want kids no matter how much support they're given. So the problem is more cultural than anything else.

    People in developed countries tend towards permanent adolescence, fear of family responsibilities, and a fantasy that life is about having fun and doing whatever you want, and kids just chain you down. I catch myself thinking this way too, but then I remind myself that life was probably 95% work for all my ancestors.

    False. Iran, China and Russia have no feminism or “women’s liberation” movements.

    The primary cause is high real estate prices. Give the average woman a large house in a good neighborhood, and fertility will rise to 3 children per woman.

    As long as the choice is “rent a small apartment in a high-wage city” vs “live in large house in the ass end of nowhere” women will keep delaying childbirth.

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    • Replies: @Thorfinnsson
    China and Russia are fully feminist countries. Women have equal rights, get "education", and pursue careers. In Russia something like 40% of corporate executives are female.

    Iran is officially an Islamic theocracy, but it too educates women and puts them to work. They also have "temporary marriage" to put an Islamic stamp of approval on dating/hookup culture.

    A traditional society does not produce a female Fields medalist.
    , @Erik Sieven
    the main goal of feminism has been female work participation, this goal is of course reached in all countries except some muslim countries.
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  61. neutral says:
    @Duke of Qin
    TFR is merely a synthetic benchmark of imagined fertility and has it's own issues. The discrepancy in different Chinese domestic sources of estimated TFR have their origins in the one child policy itself and the "Sovok" system. Communist party demands birth control, you'll get data showing lower birth rates by those immediately responsible for enforcing birth restrictions. However, those whose careers aren't directly tied to enforcement won't necessarily report the corroborating data. For example census data reporting births being reported at X amount and then six years down the line, another data point will show X+Y number of students registering for school. Where did those extra Y students come from?

    Like cicerone stated, a better way to get an accurate reflection of actual fertility is using the crude birth rate (the number of children actually born) and adjusting for the median age of the population. The comparison to Iran is interesting, but flawed in that it is predicated on the Iranian TFR being accurate. To the contrary, it is the Chinese 1.6 TFR that is probably accurate and the Iranian one that is questionable. Iran still has a crude birth rate that is 16.5/1000 with a median population age of 30. Indonesia, which has a similar crude birth rate and a similar median populationa ge somehow has a TFR that is 2.44.

    China's raw births in 2017 was around 17.3 million. China's raw birth cohort from 25 years ago, in 1992 was reported at just slightly over 21 million.

    Are you Chinese, as in racially a Han?

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    • Replies: @Daniel Chieh
    He is. A northerner, I believe.
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  62. 5371 says:

    Two comments which accurately pointed out the problems with this post, my no.2 and Cicerone’s no.9. Neither got any responses.

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  63. neutral says:
    @Jaakko Raipala
    The more feminist countries of northwest Europe have higher birth rates than southern and eastern European countries. A lot of conservative Muslim countries like Iran with extremely anti-feminist policies have tanked in fertility rate and they're now lower than Scandinavia.

    There's no evidence at all that feminism leads to lower birth rates.

    and they’re now lower than Scandinavia.

    How much of that is real Scandanavians (as in white people) as opposed to Somalians and other third worlders that Sweden considers Swedish?

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  64. @DFH

    Ever have a childless lover in her 30s?
     
    Obviously a woman's 30s are too late to have at best more than a couple of children though

    How does 28/31/33/37/40/43 sound?

    Not too bad for a woman (mine) who was ALMOST childless when she reached the age of 30s.

    The main cause was neither lack of government support not affordable housing but being surrounded by loser beta males in higher education and university. Until she met me.

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    • Replies: @DFH

    How does 28/31/33/37/40/43 sound?
     
    I am glad for her, but that is at least quite lucky, certainly the last ones.
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  65. As I understand it, the One Child Policy was itself inspired by the neo-Malthusian gloom of those times…A more human capital-centered/biorealistic viewpoint on the economy might have helped them escape this trap, and China today might have 1.6 billion people instead of 1.3 billion, and a younger population.

    It would also make the country poorer and considerably less stable, than it is now. Look at all the problems Iranians are having: protests, youth unemployment. This is simply a byproduct of having very young population. Tsarist Russia had two revolutions because it too young and dynamic for its own good.

    Read More
    • Replies: @Druid
    IN Iran, decades of sanctions and threat from the US has played a big part, I think. The average Iranian is quite poor. Huge wealth disparity, like the US
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  66. gate666 says:
    @Anonymous
    Isreal is only able to achieve such demographics because they are using Orthodox Breeder Jews that do nothing but pop out kids and collect welfare.

    This is completely unsustainable and these Jews are lower IQ as well.

    you are wrong.

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  67. gate666 says:
    @Thorfinnsson
    Trust me, women want kids. Women really want kids. Ever have a childless lover in her 30s? The saying "baby rabies" exists for a reason.

    But they don't necessarily want as many kids as the state requires. Most women want 2-3, which is inadequate. They need to have 4-6.

    And as you already hinted at, the current life path many women take makes it very difficult for them to have kids in time (or at all).

    Ideal TFR is 4-6. More than 6 seems like it would make it too difficult to invest in children, and of course there are issues with dependency ratios. Though this can be mitigated by restoring child labor, which should be done immediately.

    First industrial country to achieve this will gain a massive competitive advantage over other states in one generation.

    how do you explain child free women?

    Read More
    • Replies: @Guillaume Tell
    There are only 3 causes, in increasing order of importance number-wise:
    1. Religious vows (which must then mean no sex at all)
    2. Physical maladies (including sterility)
    3. Mental illness (including feminism)
    , @Thorfinnsson
    Freaks of the female population enabled by toxic cultural programming.

    There are also people who passionately hate dogs and declare themselves "petfree".

    On that line a fair number of "childfree" women simply get pets as surrogate children.
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  68. gate666 says:
    @Thorfinnsson
    You want to maximize quality population growth for the exact same reason you want to maximize quality economic growth.

    Population is power.

    overpopulation is disastrous.

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    • Replies: @Felix-Culpa
    “Overpopulation.”
    Brought to you from the makers of “choice,” “homophobia” and sodomy- as -marriage.
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  69. @Anonymous
    I'm aware that prostitution existed before the 60s and indeed has always existed. The point is that without contraception and abortion, prostitution would not be more than a small outlet for the cumulative sex drive of society.

    I’m aware that prostitution existed before the 60s and indeed has always existed.

    As our old street names (alas, now disappeared) confirm:

    Gropecunt Lane /ˈɡroʊpkʌnt ˈleɪn/ was a street name found in English towns and cities during the Middle Ages, believed to be a reference to the prostitution centred on those areas; it was normal practice for a medieval street name to reflect the street’s function or the economic activity taking place within it. Gropecunt, the earliest known use of which is in about 1230, appears to have been derived as a compound of the words grope and cunt. Streets with that name were often in the busiest parts of medieval towns and cities, and at least one appears to have been an important thoroughfare.

    Although the name was once common throughout England, changes in attitude resulted in its replacement by more innocuous versions such as Grape Lane. A variation of Gropecunt was last recorded as a street name in 1561.

    Variations include Gropecunte, Gropecountelane, Gropecontelane, Groppecountelane and Gropekuntelane. There were once many such street names in England, but all have now been bowdlerised.[1] In the city of York, for instance, Grapcunt Lane—grāp is the Old English word for grope[2]—was renamed as the more acceptable Grape Lane.[3]

    Read More
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  70. DFH says:
    @Twinkie

    Shanghai tfr dipped below replacement over 50 years ago, IIRC.
     
    Historically, cities have been HUGE population sinks. A high degree of urbanization is a surefire route to demographic decline.

    Actually in China, at least in the Song, that wasn’t true

    Read More
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  71. DFH says:
    @Guillaume Tell
    How does 28/31/33/37/40/43 sound?

    Not too bad for a woman (mine) who was ALMOST childless when she reached the age of 30s.

    The main cause was neither lack of government support not affordable housing but being surrounded by loser beta males in higher education and university. Until she met me.

    How does 28/31/33/37/40/43 sound?

    I am glad for her, but that is at least quite lucky, certainly the last ones.

    Read More
    • Replies: @Guillaume Tell
    Yes indeed that was lucky and also with mishaps at the end of the distribution.

    I was playing the Devil’s advocate a little bit, because (1) it’s totally obvious that peak fertility is way passed when entering the 30s, (2) it’s all downhill afterwards (with a sharp decline after age 35), and (3) it’s not cool to have old parents for a teenager.

    But I always use our example (limited sample but still a concrete case nonetheless) to make the point that there really is NO excuse for not having kids other than incurable sterility and other grave illnesses. In that we should also include mental illness and this is where the problem occurs as feminism is a form of mental illness in my view.
    By the way feminism also affects men — at least as much as it affects women.

    Someone made a comment that women want more children than men, on average. I cannot comment for every race or civilization, but for Western Europeans this is absolutely true. I was myself a persistent adolescent until my late 20s, being more interested in doing sports and other fun things than starting a family. I must admit that my wife saved me from myself there. I just regret I did not start having kids earlier.

    So all in all I in fact agree with you :)
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  72. @Jaakko Raipala
    The more feminist countries of northwest Europe have higher birth rates than southern and eastern European countries. A lot of conservative Muslim countries like Iran with extremely anti-feminist policies have tanked in fertility rate and they're now lower than Scandinavia.

    There's no evidence at all that feminism leads to lower birth rates.

    “Most feminist” is irrelevant in that EVERY industrial country is feminist, if we use the standards of what feminism proclaimed itself to be a century ago–or even half a century ago. Even Iran has gone feminist on this metric. Wtf kind of traditional society produces a female Fields medalist?

    Women in Italy and Greece are independent, seek “education”, pursue careers, etc.

    But since these countries are much poorer and in particular for the young, they have lower birth rates.

    Since feminism has completely triumphed, it’s not surprising that the movement in advanced countries has now degenerated into a bunch of silly craziness like trying to redefine everything as rape. Imagine if Nazi Germany had triumphed and liquidated the Jews. Do you think the antisemitism would’ve stopped? Or would they have gone after marginal or even imagined forms of Jewishness? My that’s a suspiciously large nose you have Herr Mueller…

    The evidence that feminism leads to lower birth rates is the stunning collapse of fertility in the decade of the 1960s throughout the entire Western world. America for instance went from a TFR of nearly four to sub-replacement in around a decade.

    I suppose we can state that giving women the right to vote didn’t collapse fertility.

    But programming women to pursue independent careers, enter male fields, get “educated”, divorce when unhaaaaaappy, and sleep around certainly did. And that’s something which exists in every advanced country without exception. China is starting to realize this is a mistake, and it’s interesting to see how far they’ll go.

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    • Replies: @The Big Red Scary

    Wtf kind of traditional society produces a female Fields medalist?
     
    They did it to piss off the Israelis.

    More seriously, though, a number of Iranian scientists have told me that in Iran, it's mostly women who can afford to do science, since men have to get real jobs to provide for the family. So in a paradoxical way, women are highly represented in Iranian science (relative to more developed countries) because Iranian society is still somewhat traditional and under-developed. What they need to do is put a lot more money into science and technology so that men can afford to out-compete the women.
    , @The Big Red Scary

    Wtf kind of traditional society produces a female Fields medalist?
     
    Hah. WTF kind of traditional society produces backwater minority Fields medalists?

    https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Caucher_Birkar

    More pissing off the Israelis?

    But naturally he's being used as a poster-boy refugee.
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  73. @songbird

    As I said before–population is power.
     
    True on many levels - for instance, for ice peoples. But obviously not for all peoples at all times. Some recent population explosions in other places: Rwanda and Syria.

    Although, one could perhaps make the philosophical point that Germany and Japan's high populations propelled them toward war and thus massive self-destruction. Perhaps, that is not as true today because of other even more destructive factors that a high population is necessary to combat.

    Even with garbage populations more people means more power relative to rival trash peoples, provided there’s enough food. Though obviously a global goal should be to reduce the relative numbers of trash people, when in fact we’ve been doing the exact opposite in the past century. Leading to a real risk we’ll be overwhelmed by a tidal wave of shitmen.

    Yes, more powerful countries may take the risk of starting wars and in so doing bring about their own destruction.

    But unless you’re willing to suffer dramatic consequences like North Korea, the alternative to that isn’t peaceful independence. It’s that without even fighting you become a lackey of a great power. The only really independent countries in the world are America, China, and Russia. Then there are some prickly states like North Korea, Iran, Israel, Cuba, etc. which have partial independence owing to extreme determination. But they could be liquidated in 48 hours if someone got mad enough.

    A high population is still necessary for military power with modern technology. Who do you think produces all that high technology? People. And the experience of the two world wars is that high technology accelerates the intensity of combat and causes more, not fewer, casualties. In a hypothetical WW3 the entire planet will be a battlefield with no truly safe areas for civilians.

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  74. @Twinkie

    Now that the average woman gets educated, has various careers, and can participate in politics, she has much higher relative status and has higher status than a large swathe of the male population. And because women naturally have an aversion to pair bonding and mating with men of lower status, this restricts the pool of acceptable mates for most women and thus the fertility rate has dropped.
     
    You just described the plight of educated black women in America. Yet they have higher fertility than whites and Asians in America who are less subject to the female-male education disparity.

    Blacks are R-selected, and in traditional West African society women do most of the work and families are centered on mothers as paternity is uncertain. Men are closer to nieces and nephews than their alleged children.

    In America blacks are wards of the state, and the stream of payments mostly flow through black women.

    And the fertility of American blacks has collapsed as well (thank God) and is not much higher than civilized races now.

    Still too high of course–ideally we’d like to get black TFR hovering around zero.

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  75. @Daniel Chieh

    Imagine people in 19th century, trying to imagine implications of planes, television and computers though
     
    Some reactionaries did. Every one of their negative predictions have come true - whether the destruction of the family, the loss of the traditional economy, ruination of morals or the monoculture of the world.

    Worth noting that South Africa under Verwoerd prohibited television as he considered it to be destructive of community and family.

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    • Replies: @songbird

    Worth noting that South Africa under Verwoerd prohibited television as he considered it to be destructive of community and family
     
    .

    Interesting. I didn't realize that was a political policy. I thought it was developmental. They did have scripted radio shows. If I recall, they reproduced some old American radio shows, from the same scripts, some 30 or 40 years later.

    Radio is probably a harder medium for Leftists to hijack than TV, public radio aside.
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  76. @reiner Tor
    Smart people would figure out loopholes or how to get contraception or abortion anyway. They’d tend to go for types of sex less likely to result in conception, like oral and anal sex, etc. But it would wonderfully increase fertility among the least desirable demographics.

    Nothing is that simple.

    People did this before birth control existed. Not like pulling out is terribly challenging (and yes, contrary to myth, it is fairly effective with some caveats). The difference is that birth control makes the process effortless and less subject to “accidents” which are inevitable in romance for various reasons.

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    • Replies: @reiner Tor

    Not like pulling out is terribly challenging (and yes, contrary to myth, it is fairly effective with some caveats).
     
    I can confirm. It worked with me fine for several years. It’s way more comfortable than a condom.
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  77. @DFH

    How does 28/31/33/37/40/43 sound?
     
    I am glad for her, but that is at least quite lucky, certainly the last ones.

    Yes indeed that was lucky and also with mishaps at the end of the distribution.

    I was playing the Devil’s advocate a little bit, because (1) it’s totally obvious that peak fertility is way passed when entering the 30s, (2) it’s all downhill afterwards (with a sharp decline after age 35), and (3) it’s not cool to have old parents for a teenager.

    But I always use our example (limited sample but still a concrete case nonetheless) to make the point that there really is NO excuse for not having kids other than incurable sterility and other grave illnesses. In that we should also include mental illness and this is where the problem occurs as feminism is a form of mental illness in my view.
    By the way feminism also affects men — at least as much as it affects women.

    Someone made a comment that women want more children than men, on average. I cannot comment for every race or civilization, but for Western Europeans this is absolutely true. I was myself a persistent adolescent until my late 20s, being more interested in doing sports and other fun things than starting a family. I must admit that my wife saved me from myself there. I just regret I did not start having kids earlier.

    So all in all I in fact agree with you :)

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  78. @Twinkie

    Shanghai tfr dipped below replacement over 50 years ago, IIRC.
     
    Historically, cities have been HUGE population sinks. A high degree of urbanization is a surefire route to demographic decline.

    Historically this was mainly due to infectious disease.

    If cities were made affordable and child friendly I don’t see why they would need to be population sinks. They might remain minor population sinks owing to abundance of entertainment options, but nothing dramatic.

    Was Tokyo a population sink before the American population? I kind of doubt it. Probably had lesser fertility than the countryside, but I bet it was above replacement.

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    • Replies: @Daniel Chieh
    I suspect it has to do with cortisol levels.
    , @Cicerone

    Was Tokyo a population sink before the American population? I kind of doubt it. Probably had lesser fertility than the countryside, but I bet it was above replacement.
     
    Before WWII, Tokyo had a fertility rate of around 3-4 children per woman while Japan was closer to 5.

    After the war, fertility collapsed in Japan.

    Lately, the situation has improved from extremely bad to very bad:

    https://farm2.staticflickr.com/1833/29870762828_78f71b9154_o.png

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  79. @anonymous coward
    False. Iran, China and Russia have no feminism or "women's liberation" movements.

    The primary cause is high real estate prices. Give the average woman a large house in a good neighborhood, and fertility will rise to 3 children per woman.

    As long as the choice is "rent a small apartment in a high-wage city" vs "live in large house in the ass end of nowhere" women will keep delaying childbirth.

    China and Russia are fully feminist countries. Women have equal rights, get “education”, and pursue careers. In Russia something like 40% of corporate executives are female.

    Iran is officially an Islamic theocracy, but it too educates women and puts them to work. They also have “temporary marriage” to put an Islamic stamp of approval on dating/hookup culture.

    A traditional society does not produce a female Fields medalist.

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    • Replies: @Guillaume Tell

    A traditional society does not produce a female Fields medalist.
     
    Although TBH that one was really an Affirmative Action one.
    , @Rosie

    Iran is officially an Islamic theocracy, but it too educates women and puts them to work.
     
    Thorfinnsson comes out for the perpetual ignorance and forced prostitution solution. If women having equal rights is the problem, Thorfinnsson, why don't you tell us which of our rights you would like to take away.
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  80. dfordoom says: • Website
    @Polish Perspective

    Women have much higher desired child counts than men do. If it was entirely up to women’s choice, every industrialized country would be well above replacement, if it was up entirely up to men’s choice, birth rates would be even lower.
     
    Yes, but it doesn't change his (correct) analysis. There is a well-known pattern between education and fertility. The more educated women become, the more they delay the age of initial child-bearing. You see this in developing country after developing country.

    However, education is just one of many factors. Liu is correct to emphasize cultural factors. Jaako's point about Scandinavia may be true, but it doesn't change the argument. Scandinavia still has sub-replacement TFR aside from perhaps Iceland.

    Religiosity is the bigger factor. The importance here is intensity and not shallowness. Iran is a superficially religious country but many Iranians will tell you that the population isn't nearly as fanatic as the leadership. The same pattern is true in Turkey, where atheism among Turks is rare but their religious intensity is quite low whereas the kurds are more pious. For the kurds, they also have the demographic pressure, which acts as a co-enabler and therefore pushes up fertility.

    Then there's also the K-selection and r-selection theory, though I am not a biologist so I do not know how accurate that theory is. Could possibly be a factor.

    Generally, money is probably the least important issue. Far more important are the social and cultural values, which also informs how much you want to educate your girls. One area which someone mentioned is real estate and I'd probably agree to that to a smaller extent. The gigantic rise of debt-fuelled real estate prices all over the West, and increasingly even in EE, over the past 15-20 years has priced many young couples out of the market and forces them to work longer to get a decent housing in many countries. Not everyone wants or even can live in the rural areas. Jobs and economic activity is tied to urban areas. That delayed investment probably also affects TFR at the margins.

    One area which someone mentioned is real estate and I’d probably agree to that to a smaller extent.

    That’s a line that Steve Sailer has been pushing for years (“affordable family formation”) and he’s undoubtedly correct. It is important. It’s much less important than cultural factors but it is still important. And housing costs are absolutely the key to affordable family formation.

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  81. @gate666
    how do you explain child free women?

    There are only 3 causes, in increasing order of importance number-wise:
    1. Religious vows (which must then mean no sex at all)
    2. Physical maladies (including sterility)
    3. Mental illness (including feminism)

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  82. @gate666
    how do you explain child free women?

    Freaks of the female population enabled by toxic cultural programming.

    There are also people who passionately hate dogs and declare themselves “petfree”.

    On that line a fair number of “childfree” women simply get pets as surrogate children.

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  83. @Thorfinnsson
    China and Russia are fully feminist countries. Women have equal rights, get "education", and pursue careers. In Russia something like 40% of corporate executives are female.

    Iran is officially an Islamic theocracy, but it too educates women and puts them to work. They also have "temporary marriage" to put an Islamic stamp of approval on dating/hookup culture.

    A traditional society does not produce a female Fields medalist.

    A traditional society does not produce a female Fields medalist.

    Although TBH that one was really an Affirmative Action one.

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  84. dfordoom says: • Website
    @Polish Perspective

    Women have much higher desired child counts than men do. If it was entirely up to women’s choice, every industrialized country would be well above replacement, if it was up entirely up to men’s choice, birth rates would be even lower.
     
    Yes, but it doesn't change his (correct) analysis. There is a well-known pattern between education and fertility. The more educated women become, the more they delay the age of initial child-bearing. You see this in developing country after developing country.

    However, education is just one of many factors. Liu is correct to emphasize cultural factors. Jaako's point about Scandinavia may be true, but it doesn't change the argument. Scandinavia still has sub-replacement TFR aside from perhaps Iceland.

    Religiosity is the bigger factor. The importance here is intensity and not shallowness. Iran is a superficially religious country but many Iranians will tell you that the population isn't nearly as fanatic as the leadership. The same pattern is true in Turkey, where atheism among Turks is rare but their religious intensity is quite low whereas the kurds are more pious. For the kurds, they also have the demographic pressure, which acts as a co-enabler and therefore pushes up fertility.

    Then there's also the K-selection and r-selection theory, though I am not a biologist so I do not know how accurate that theory is. Could possibly be a factor.

    Generally, money is probably the least important issue. Far more important are the social and cultural values, which also informs how much you want to educate your girls. One area which someone mentioned is real estate and I'd probably agree to that to a smaller extent. The gigantic rise of debt-fuelled real estate prices all over the West, and increasingly even in EE, over the past 15-20 years has priced many young couples out of the market and forces them to work longer to get a decent housing in many countries. Not everyone wants or even can live in the rural areas. Jobs and economic activity is tied to urban areas. That delayed investment probably also affects TFR at the margins.

    Far more important are the social and cultural values, which also informs how much you want to educate your girls.

    To be honest our problem in the West is too much education for everybody. Education is one of those things that is good in moderation. Too much can be extremely harmful. Higher education should only be available to a very small minority who actually need it.

    Too much education is bad for everybody but it’s especially damaging to women. Women do not need higher education. Society does not need women with higher education. Our obsession with fairness is destroying us. We might have a an education system that is fair and offers equal opportunities to women but how much good does that do us if our society is going down the toilet because we’ve ceased to reproduce?

    Survival matters more than fairness. Survival will require some very drastic decisions (such as massive cuts to education spending). That isn’t going to happen through the ballot box.

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    • Agree: Guillaume Tell
    • Replies: @Druid
    As a father of two daughters, I disagree though I get your point
    , @Duke of Qin
    I want to agree, but with a caveat. The real problem with education is that it raises the self perceived reproductive status of women to the degree while also damaging their actual reproductive status (a wasted youth and thus beauty). When everyone aspires to live the carefree life of a modern Bourbon, there will be no one to replace us. Elite female fertility has always been very low historically speaking, with huge numbers of elite girls ending up in nunneries without ever having any children at all.

    The problem with female status is that it massively depresses female fertility by restricting their pool of allowed mates to men of even higher status. The problem is that men of higher status doesn't want a Harvard mba or a Princeton PhD, which women are fooled into believing is actually useful, they want a youthful beautiful feminine wife. So at best you get wasteful credentialism of a woman who spent years in graduate school and never working once they've found an even higher status husband while stealing a spot from a man or at worse you get cats for grandchildren.
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  85. @anonymous coward
    False. Iran, China and Russia have no feminism or "women's liberation" movements.

    The primary cause is high real estate prices. Give the average woman a large house in a good neighborhood, and fertility will rise to 3 children per woman.

    As long as the choice is "rent a small apartment in a high-wage city" vs "live in large house in the ass end of nowhere" women will keep delaying childbirth.

    the main goal of feminism has been female work participation, this goal is of course reached in all countries except some muslim countries.

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    • Replies: @Guillaume Tell
    I think that has been true of recent (say since XIX-th century), with the need to insert the urban female population into the industrial workforce.

    However if we’re looking further back in time, at mostly rural societies, all commoner women were working, with and like the rest of the able-bodied family members. That was agricultural work but real work. Not meaningless cubicle busy-work. And yet there was no feminism in those times.

    Therefore there must be another driving cause than just economic needs, to explain the rise of such a toxic ideology like feminism.

    When in doubt it’s akway a good first approximation to blame in on the Jews, no matter what the subject.
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  86. @Erik Sieven
    the main goal of feminism has been female work participation, this goal is of course reached in all countries except some muslim countries.

    I think that has been true of recent (say since XIX-th century), with the need to insert the urban female population into the industrial workforce.

    However if we’re looking further back in time, at mostly rural societies, all commoner women were working, with and like the rest of the able-bodied family members. That was agricultural work but real work. Not meaningless cubicle busy-work. And yet there was no feminism in those times.

    Therefore there must be another driving cause than just economic needs, to explain the rise of such a toxic ideology like feminism.

    When in doubt it’s akway a good first approximation to blame in on the Jews, no matter what the subject.

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  87. dfordoom says: • Website
    @Twinkie

    Shanghai tfr dipped below replacement over 50 years ago, IIRC.
     
    Historically, cities have been HUGE population sinks. A high degree of urbanization is a surefire route to demographic decline.

    Historically, cities have been HUGE population sinks. A high degree of urbanization is a surefire route to demographic decline.

    Cities used to be population sinks because prior to modern sanitation the death rates were astronomical.

    So why exactly does urbanization still lead to population decline? Why do cities encourage low birth rates? I’m sure we can all think of lots of plausible explanations but do we actually know the real answer?

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    • Replies: @Guillaume Tell
    Some ideas:
    1. More social interactions leads to increased nervousness and general rebelliousness?
    2. A less natural environment favors ideological detachment from reality?
    3. The struggle for survival is harsher in cities due to increased competition because of population density?
    4. Jews?
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  88. spandrell says: • Website

    There’s a lot of unreported births in the countryside, so there is some evidence for higher fertility than the reported by the NBS. 17 million babies a year are a lot of babies.

    But yeah, the picture looks bleak. China has lost a great chance to promote early death of its elderly population through eager consumption of tobacco and adulterated booze; but nah. They’re on a death spiral of overentitled geezers and feminist women who just won’t have babies if their husbands arent rich and the kids are guaranteed a place at Qinghua.

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  89. @Anonymous
    Could it really be that simple?

    Banning contraception and abortion would have no impact on sex drives. And prostitution would become largely infeasible without contraception and abortion. But sex drives would remain, and people have to satisfy them, so they would be more inclined to seek out marriage and procreative sex.

    It's possible that it might be that simple.

    It basically is. Parsimony is surprisingly good at explaining trends at times.

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  90. @dfordoom

    Historically, cities have been HUGE population sinks. A high degree of urbanization is a surefire route to demographic decline.
     
    Cities used to be population sinks because prior to modern sanitation the death rates were astronomical.

    So why exactly does urbanization still lead to population decline? Why do cities encourage low birth rates? I'm sure we can all think of lots of plausible explanations but do we actually know the real answer?

    Some ideas:
    1. More social interactions leads to increased nervousness and general rebelliousness?
    2. A less natural environment favors ideological detachment from reality?
    3. The struggle for survival is harsher in cities due to increased competition because of population density?
    4. Jews?

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  91. @Thorfinnsson
    Historically this was mainly due to infectious disease.

    If cities were made affordable and child friendly I don't see why they would need to be population sinks. They might remain minor population sinks owing to abundance of entertainment options, but nothing dramatic.

    Was Tokyo a population sink before the American population? I kind of doubt it. Probably had lesser fertility than the countryside, but I bet it was above replacement.

    I suspect it has to do with cortisol levels.

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  92. As I understand it, the One Child Policy was itself inspired by the neo-Malthusian gloom of those times, adjusted for Western intellectual trends coming a decade late to the Communist world; Paul R. Ehrlich had published his famous(ly wrong) book Population Bomb a decade earlier, in 1968.

    I’ve got an interesting excerpt from 1978 book Class about the overpopulation scare in the UK:

    At the beginning of the ‘seventies the small-is-beautiful brigade mounted a campaign to bring down the birthrate. Family Planning Association supporters brandished condoms outside the House of Commons and at parties sidled up bossily to women who’d just had babies saying, ‘Two’s your ration.’ Middle-class lefties were rumoured to be concealing third babies in attics rather than display evidence of such social irresponsibility. Disapproving ads appeared in cinemas showing defeated slatterns in curlers trailing herds of whining children along the streets. ‘Superdad or Scrounger?’ demanded the Daily Mirror when a man on Social Security proudly produced his twenty-first child.

    In the face of economic gloom, a rocketing dole queue and mothers wanting to get back to work, people probably thought twice about bringing more children into the world. Whatever the cause, the campaign worked. The birthrate in the United Kingdom dropped by 30 per cent. The working classes in particular, having discovered the pill, curbed production dramatically and at the last count were only producing 2.16 children per family, while the upper-middles were down to 1.7. Indeed, the higher you go up the social scale, the smaller the family, although the aristocracy tend to run unpatriotically riot, probably because, as Evelyn Waugh pointed out, ‘Impotence and sodomy are socially O.K., but birth control is flagrantly middle-class.’ One can’t imagine an aristocrat having a vasectomy.

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    • Replies: @jim jones
    Jacob Rees Mogg is a notoriously upper class politician in the UK, he is famous for having six children.
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  93. LondonBob says:

    Interesting that Nazi policies to promote marroage and increase fertility were succesful.

    https://www.jstor.org/stable/2769448?seq=1#page_scan_tab_contents

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  94. @neutral
    Are you Chinese, as in racially a Han?

    He is. A northerner, I believe.

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    • Replies: @neutral
    Northerner means Mongolian?
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  95. Annatar says:

    Regarding Iran and China, their fertility rates are likely higher then many estimates.

    Iran as of 2017 had a CBR of around 19/1000, considering its current age structure it is highly unlikely it has a TFR of only 1.7, other countries with CBR’s of around 20/1000 and a similar age structure all have TFR’s of around 2.1 to 2.4.

    With regard to China it is basically impossible that it has a CBR of 12.4/1000 and a TFR of below 1.5, comparing other countries with a similar age structure, its TFR is likely around 1.7.

    Somewhat off-topic, for all the talk about low Chinese birthrates, China has a CBR then every single major western nation, even the US in 2017 had a CBR of only 11.9/1000. China’s demographic situation is better then basically every major power currently in the world something that the media never seem to realize as they predict impending demographic doom for China. And of course China has huge population to begin with so even if the population stops growing, the amount of human capital that is present in a population of 1.4 billion with a an IQ of above 100 is more then enough for total hegemony if used properly.

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    • Replies: @neutral
    Much more important than those stats are the miscegenation and immigration rates, one keeps hearing about the "healthy" demographics of the US or USA from the likes of the Economist, all that "healthy" really means is non whites replacing whites, China is not facing such a mass race replacement, which in the end is the only thing that really matters.
    , @Guillaume Tell

    With regard to China it is basically impossible that it has a CBR of 12.4/1000 and a TFR of below 1.5, comparing other countries with a similar age structure, its TFR is likely around 1.7.
     
    I am no expert of Chinese demographics, but how does that square off with four decades of supposedly ruthlessly-enforced one-child policy? Something must give. Is it the CPC not that ruthless after all?
    , @Bliss

    the amount of human capital that is present in a population of 1.4 billion with a an IQ of above 100 is more then enough for total hegemony if used properly.
     
    The Age of AI (artificial intelligence) is coming soon. A few points advantage in human IQ won’t make a difference then.
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  96. neutral says:
    @Daniel Chieh
    He is. A northerner, I believe.

    Northerner means Mongolian?

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    • Replies: @Daniel Chieh
    No. Beijing, etc. Northern Chinese as opposed to Southern Chinese such as Guandong. Traditionally considered as taller and more martial people, having fought with the steppe dwellers since times immemorial: wheat-eating with buns and noodles.
    , @Duke of Qin
    The modern dividing line between North and South China is the Huai river, nestled between the better known Yellow and Yangtze rivers. A more accurate dividing line would be a north, a center encompassing the southern parts of the traditional north and the northern parts of the traditional south, and a southern coast that is basically Fujian and Guangdong. Guangxi and Yunnan aren't traditionally Southern so much as recently (17th century) acquired frontier zones.

    The historic north is really the territory of Zhou ducal states of the Spring and Autumn period.
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  97. neutral says:
    @Annatar
    Regarding Iran and China, their fertility rates are likely higher then many estimates.

    Iran as of 2017 had a CBR of around 19/1000, considering its current age structure it is highly unlikely it has a TFR of only 1.7, other countries with CBR's of around 20/1000 and a similar age structure all have TFR's of around 2.1 to 2.4.

    With regard to China it is basically impossible that it has a CBR of 12.4/1000 and a TFR of below 1.5, comparing other countries with a similar age structure, its TFR is likely around 1.7.

    Somewhat off-topic, for all the talk about low Chinese birthrates, China has a CBR then every single major western nation, even the US in 2017 had a CBR of only 11.9/1000. China's demographic situation is better then basically every major power currently in the world something that the media never seem to realize as they predict impending demographic doom for China. And of course China has huge population to begin with so even if the population stops growing, the amount of human capital that is present in a population of 1.4 billion with a an IQ of above 100 is more then enough for total hegemony if used properly.

    Much more important than those stats are the miscegenation and immigration rates, one keeps hearing about the “healthy” demographics of the US or USA from the likes of the Economist, all that “healthy” really means is non whites replacing whites, China is not facing such a mass race replacement, which in the end is the only thing that really matters.

    Read More
    • Agree: Guillaume Tell
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  98. @Annatar
    Regarding Iran and China, their fertility rates are likely higher then many estimates.

    Iran as of 2017 had a CBR of around 19/1000, considering its current age structure it is highly unlikely it has a TFR of only 1.7, other countries with CBR's of around 20/1000 and a similar age structure all have TFR's of around 2.1 to 2.4.

    With regard to China it is basically impossible that it has a CBR of 12.4/1000 and a TFR of below 1.5, comparing other countries with a similar age structure, its TFR is likely around 1.7.

    Somewhat off-topic, for all the talk about low Chinese birthrates, China has a CBR then every single major western nation, even the US in 2017 had a CBR of only 11.9/1000. China's demographic situation is better then basically every major power currently in the world something that the media never seem to realize as they predict impending demographic doom for China. And of course China has huge population to begin with so even if the population stops growing, the amount of human capital that is present in a population of 1.4 billion with a an IQ of above 100 is more then enough for total hegemony if used properly.

    With regard to China it is basically impossible that it has a CBR of 12.4/1000 and a TFR of below 1.5, comparing other countries with a similar age structure, its TFR is likely around 1.7.

    I am no expert of Chinese demographics, but how does that square off with four decades of supposedly ruthlessly-enforced one-child policy? Something must give. Is it the CPC not that ruthless after all?

    Read More
    • Replies: @Daniel Chieh
    The ruthlessness and efficiency of the CCP has always been exaggerated, even by themselves. In practice, China is too large to be North Korea'nized, even if the CCP wanted to do that.
    , @Cicerone
    Don't forget that China is also corrupt to the bones. So there are ample ways to circumvent the controls, especially so in the countryside. Many newborn girls were simply not registered and only appear now in the census.
    , @Duke of Qin
    The one child policy was never universally "ruthlessly" enforced. You are mistaking Western human rights agitprop for reality. For every commies aborted my baby sob story, there was thousands of buy me dinner and give me some cigarettes and booze and I'll look the other way non story. Fact is, plenty of Chinese still do have multiple children. All of my paternal cousins have siblings and half of my maternal ones do as well. The only reason I didn't was because of my mother's extremely late at the time age of giving birth to me (30) and because my father was still working on his PhD and couldn't afford another and by the time he could, it was too late for my mom. The only sector where enforcement was total was on the party itself. Xi Jinping and all the other members of the Politburo have only 1 child each (well legally recognized child that is).
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  99. @neutral
    Northerner means Mongolian?

    No. Beijing, etc. Northern Chinese as opposed to Southern Chinese such as Guandong. Traditionally considered as taller and more martial people, having fought with the steppe dwellers since times immemorial: wheat-eating with buns and noodles.

    Read More
    • Replies: @Twinkie

    having fought with the steppe dwellers since times immemorial
     
    And I would bet that they also interbred with them to some extent, often not so willingly!
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  100. @Guillaume Tell

    With regard to China it is basically impossible that it has a CBR of 12.4/1000 and a TFR of below 1.5, comparing other countries with a similar age structure, its TFR is likely around 1.7.
     
    I am no expert of Chinese demographics, but how does that square off with four decades of supposedly ruthlessly-enforced one-child policy? Something must give. Is it the CPC not that ruthless after all?

    The ruthlessness and efficiency of the CCP has always been exaggerated, even by themselves. In practice, China is too large to be North Korea’nized, even if the CCP wanted to do that.

    Read More
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  101. @Bill P
    Having a kid is not worth it for your typical urban Chinese. The hoops you have to jump through and bribes you have to pay to get them in a decent school are prohibitive, and what's more the cities are so polluted you practically have to invest in a fallout shelter type air filter to keep them healthy.

    Most of the women having kids in the big cities are probably waidi ren-- rural migrants at the bottom of the social hierarchy. Give Chinese an incentive to have kids and, just like Maoist times, you'll get a lot more peasant kids.

    Shanghai tfr dipped below replacement over 50 years ago, IIRC. There really is a big quality vs. quantity issue in China. Everybody knows it, but nobody is really doing anything about it. The Chinese I know who had more than one kid left the country before doing so. Most of the others I knew didn't even have kids last I checked, when they would have been pushing 40. These are big city, educated, high human capital Chinese.

    It's a disaster in the making, and given the Chinese tendency to double down when things deteriorate, I don't expect the trend to change anytime soon.

    The only hope China has of raising fertility in the near term lies in the countryside, but without some reversal or at least serious slowdown of the urbanization drive it's not going to happen. And anyway the government is trying really hard to decrease the number of peasants because of the aforementioned quality issue, so they'd never go for a scheme that boosted rural fertility.

    The hoops you have to jump through and bribes you have to pay to get them in a decent school are prohibitive, and what’s more the cities are so polluted you practically have to invest in a fallout shelter type air filter to keep them healthy.

    Fake news from someone who also is advocating for a global confederation to isolate China.

    “Status-adjusted child rearing” cost is indeed prohibitive, however. That’s going to be a problem in all modernized society, and more so in China due to the ever spiraling virtue signaling of status with education.

    Read More
    • Replies: @Bill P
    I want an aggressive, anti-American Communist regime isolated, and you see that as a problem because...?

    I really don't know why the PRC gets a pass for following the same ideology as Cuba and North Korea, especially now that the Cold War has been over for more than a generation.
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  102. So, was it in fact always possible to have more kids, without having to endure too much retaliation as a result?

    Two personal anecdotes:
    (1) I remember having seen a documentary, circa 2009, that was circulated in the form of DVDs amongst Catholics about massive-scale forced sterilizations, or permanently-implanted abortifacient hardware at the time of first birth without the woman’s consent. That DVD was published by some Catholic outfit, JP2/pro-life kind of. According to said documentary (that was intelligently presented), the UN was in cahoots with the Chinese commies to effectively pave the way for what would become a model campaign for the world as a whole. Was it all lies/exaggeration? No longer being a (Roman) Catholic now, I am viewing these things with not a grain, but a block of salt nowadays. That said I would like that such policies be applied to the African continent.

    (2) Back in about 2010, I was nonchalantly wandering on the sidewalk in a large US city park, with my pregnant wife, pushing a stroller with a baby in it, and 3 other kids in tow. At some point a bus stopped and park a few meters ahead of us. Then about 30-40 Chinese people walk out and surrounded us, making pictures, kind of congratulating us, counting the kids, and talking to each other in complete excitement. That was a very odd moment, but we took it easily, and gracefully accepted to be pictured with some of the older chink ladies. We thought we really had made their day, and I think that we are now in some photo albums in the RPC. In retrospect I find this story quite sad — not for us, but for them. You could tell in this women’s eyes that they were seeing something that, no doubt, they would have loved for themselves. Sad.

    Read More
    • Replies: @Daniel Chieh
    Part of it has to be economic.

    As the agrarian portion of the economy decreased, so did the motivation to have children: the turnaround time for children to become economically productive in an agricultural society is 10 years or so, so it became easy to justify having children(especially without easy access to contraception). As the importance of child labor decreased, so does the value of children.

    At the point that children are net costs and respectability is conveyed through accumulation of wealth, it becomes increasingly less worthwhile to have children but increasingly worthwhile to have the other adult member of your family work(your wife, basically). Especially as the domestic economy decreases in importance, status is gained instead by maximizing cash flow and through markers of wealth. This simultaneously drives up the cost of housing as family incomes increase, and increases the "median" status needed to be respectable. If it was once respectable to have one beater car and a two-bedroom house, it is now only respectable to have a four bedroom house, and two new cars, for example. As children are expensive, this means that childbirth must both be delayed in order to signal respectability, as well as fewer children overall.

    As humans are primarily status seeking creatures, these drives along with the ability to suppress any "accidents" with birth control and easy access to abortion ultimately serve to make the production of children marginal and especially discouraged in urban environments with its stress-inducing crowding, heavy status signaling needs, and significant living costs.

    Notably, effective disposable income has not actually increased in the US for almost thirty years while more total hours have been worked by households through female participation in the workforce(and overtime). Add the value of increasing debt, and arguably it has been a downhill progression economically. East Asian countries are also known for extremely long hours of work, and heavy signaling associated with such; this was probably less harmful when work was done at home(including for men, due to farm work) but the modern economy moves work outside of home and makes dilligence antagonistic to familial life, rather than complementary of it.

    This is not great in the extremely long run, but humans(even the best of us) are largely only made to predict for the medium term. So we optimize for that. Individuals with extremely short time planning actually do better at this, because they won't be planning for education(or even birth control), they're just having sex and letting the accidents happen as usual.

    , @Bliss

    I would like that such policies be applied to the African continent.
     
    Sure you would.

    One can fit 3 Chinas in Africa and still have plenty of room to spare. Barring unforeseen events Africa could end the 21st century with a population of 2 billion or more. That would still be less than half as crowded as China is today.

    gracefully accepted to be pictured with some of the older chink ladies.
     
    Real classy aren’t you?
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  103. @Guillaume Tell
    So, was it in fact always possible to have more kids, without having to endure too much retaliation as a result?

    Two personal anecdotes:
    (1) I remember having seen a documentary, circa 2009, that was circulated in the form of DVDs amongst Catholics about massive-scale forced sterilizations, or permanently-implanted abortifacient hardware at the time of first birth without the woman's consent. That DVD was published by some Catholic outfit, JP2/pro-life kind of. According to said documentary (that was intelligently presented), the UN was in cahoots with the Chinese commies to effectively pave the way for what would become a model campaign for the world as a whole. Was it all lies/exaggeration? No longer being a (Roman) Catholic now, I am viewing these things with not a grain, but a block of salt nowadays. That said I would like that such policies be applied to the African continent.

    (2) Back in about 2010, I was nonchalantly wandering on the sidewalk in a large US city park, with my pregnant wife, pushing a stroller with a baby in it, and 3 other kids in tow. At some point a bus stopped and park a few meters ahead of us. Then about 30-40 Chinese people walk out and surrounded us, making pictures, kind of congratulating us, counting the kids, and talking to each other in complete excitement. That was a very odd moment, but we took it easily, and gracefully accepted to be pictured with some of the older chink ladies. We thought we really had made their day, and I think that we are now in some photo albums in the RPC. In retrospect I find this story quite sad -- not for us, but for them. You could tell in this women's eyes that they were seeing something that, no doubt, they would have loved for themselves. Sad.

    Part of it has to be economic.

    As the agrarian portion of the economy decreased, so did the motivation to have children: the turnaround time for children to become economically productive in an agricultural society is 10 years or so, so it became easy to justify having children(especially without easy access to contraception). As the importance of child labor decreased, so does the value of children.

    At the point that children are net costs and respectability is conveyed through accumulation of wealth, it becomes increasingly less worthwhile to have children but increasingly worthwhile to have the other adult member of your family work(your wife, basically). Especially as the domestic economy decreases in importance, status is gained instead by maximizing cash flow and through markers of wealth. This simultaneously drives up the cost of housing as family incomes increase, and increases the “median” status needed to be respectable. If it was once respectable to have one beater car and a two-bedroom house, it is now only respectable to have a four bedroom house, and two new cars, for example. As children are expensive, this means that childbirth must both be delayed in order to signal respectability, as well as fewer children overall.

    As humans are primarily status seeking creatures, these drives along with the ability to suppress any “accidents” with birth control and easy access to abortion ultimately serve to make the production of children marginal and especially discouraged in urban environments with its stress-inducing crowding, heavy status signaling needs, and significant living costs.

    Notably, effective disposable income has not actually increased in the US for almost thirty years while more total hours have been worked by households through female participation in the workforce(and overtime). Add the value of increasing debt, and arguably it has been a downhill progression economically. East Asian countries are also known for extremely long hours of work, and heavy signaling associated with such; this was probably less harmful when work was done at home(including for men, due to farm work) but the modern economy moves work outside of home and makes dilligence antagonistic to familial life, rather than complementary of it.

    This is not great in the extremely long run, but humans(even the best of us) are largely only made to predict for the medium term. So we optimize for that. Individuals with extremely short time planning actually do better at this, because they won’t be planning for education(or even birth control), they’re just having sex and letting the accidents happen as usual.

    Read More
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  104. Bill P says:
    @Daniel Chieh

    The hoops you have to jump through and bribes you have to pay to get them in a decent school are prohibitive, and what’s more the cities are so polluted you practically have to invest in a fallout shelter type air filter to keep them healthy.
     
    Fake news from someone who also is advocating for a global confederation to isolate China.

    "Status-adjusted child rearing" cost is indeed prohibitive, however. That's going to be a problem in all modernized society, and more so in China due to the ever spiraling virtue signaling of status with education.

    I want an aggressive, anti-American Communist regime isolated, and you see that as a problem because…?

    I really don’t know why the PRC gets a pass for following the same ideology as Cuba and North Korea, especially now that the Cold War has been over for more than a generation.

    Read More
    • Replies: @Daniel Chieh

    I want an aggressive, anti-American Communist regime isolated, and you see that as a problem because…?

     

    Because it is:

    1) Not actually communist
    2) Along with Russia, arguably one of the few states that is solidly anti-Cathedral
    3) America, unfortunately, has become the side of the Great Gay Disco.

    https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=3FzVMKK-MW4
    , @dfordoom

    I want an aggressive, anti-American Communist regime isolated
     
    I assume you're talking about the U.S. Government. And I agree. Washington should certainly be isolated.
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  105. Cicerone says:
    @Thorfinnsson
    Historically this was mainly due to infectious disease.

    If cities were made affordable and child friendly I don't see why they would need to be population sinks. They might remain minor population sinks owing to abundance of entertainment options, but nothing dramatic.

    Was Tokyo a population sink before the American population? I kind of doubt it. Probably had lesser fertility than the countryside, but I bet it was above replacement.

    Was Tokyo a population sink before the American population? I kind of doubt it. Probably had lesser fertility than the countryside, but I bet it was above replacement.

    Before WWII, Tokyo had a fertility rate of around 3-4 children per woman while Japan was closer to 5.

    After the war, fertility collapsed in Japan.

    Lately, the situation has improved from extremely bad to very bad:

    Read More
    • Replies: @Daniel Chieh
    Tokyo still, oddly, has one of the better TFRs in Japan(which isn't saying much). I believe its only lower than Okinawa, which has the best TFR around 1.8(IIRC a bit higher) or so, who are not ethnically Yamato Japanese.
    , @Twinkie

    Before WWII, Tokyo had a fertility rate of around 3-4 children per woman while Japan was closer to 5.
     
    That was probably the peak fertility of Japan in recorded history, especially if one counted children surviving to adulthood.
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  106. Cicerone says:
    @Guillaume Tell

    With regard to China it is basically impossible that it has a CBR of 12.4/1000 and a TFR of below 1.5, comparing other countries with a similar age structure, its TFR is likely around 1.7.
     
    I am no expert of Chinese demographics, but how does that square off with four decades of supposedly ruthlessly-enforced one-child policy? Something must give. Is it the CPC not that ruthless after all?

    Don’t forget that China is also corrupt to the bones. So there are ample ways to circumvent the controls, especially so in the countryside. Many newborn girls were simply not registered and only appear now in the census.

    Read More
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  107. OT

    Armata mass production further delayed and/or cancelled, apparently it’s too expensive.

    https://defence-blog.com/army/russian-armata-modern-tanks-production-delayed-due-high-cost.html

    Read More
    • Replies: @Dmitry
    I think it's sensible - like they are sounding more responsibly and logical this year.

    Initial plan was to produce 2,300 by 2020.

    But is there need suddenly for 2,300 new tanks - after they created hundreds of modernized T-72 B3?

    Currently there are almost 3000 active tanks (mainly T-72, but also hundreds of T-90).

    In addition, already hundreds of T-72 B3 upgraded in the last few years, and they are equal specifications than any NATO tanks, which would be its opposition.

    Upgrading to T-72 B3 costs more than ten times less than each T-14.

    -

    T-14 costs 250 million rubles each (enough to build a couple of schools for each tank).

    So original plan was to produce 2,300 by 2020 - costing 575 billion rubles.

    -

    NATO itself has already much more minor tank forces deployed in Europe.

    Germany greatly decreased its tank forces to around 300. Countries like Poland have 200 tanks. Hungary have 34 T-72s.

    Latvia has 0 tanks.

    Lithuania has 0 tanks.

    Estonia has 0 tanks.

    So is there need for 2,300, even if you were preparing for war?

    Deterrence effect itself of building 2,300 tanks would be very large, it is true.

    But the already demonstrated, technological capacity to design and build such a tank as T-14, which is significantly more ambitious than any Western tank projects - is surely itself already quite a lot of deterrence.

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  108. @Bill P
    I want an aggressive, anti-American Communist regime isolated, and you see that as a problem because...?

    I really don't know why the PRC gets a pass for following the same ideology as Cuba and North Korea, especially now that the Cold War has been over for more than a generation.

    I want an aggressive, anti-American Communist regime isolated, and you see that as a problem because…?

    Because it is:

    1) Not actually communist
    2) Along with Russia, arguably one of the few states that is solidly anti-Cathedral
    3) America, unfortunately, has become the side of the Great Gay Disco.

    Read More
    • Replies: @Bill P
    Xi Jinping is most assuredly a Communist, and he could care less about the "cathedral", and certainly can and does work with American elites against the interests of most Americans so as to weaken the US as a whole.

    BTW, if you go to China for a while, you'll notice a strange phenomenon. Govt. run media outlets will enthusiastically promote the worst of the cathedral narrative, using films and shows made right here in the USA by the most degenerate anti-American trash, even though your typical Chinese has no interest in them, and would rather watch something like Walker, Texas Ranger (that show was extremely popular in China).

    The regime also brutalizes innocent, faithful Christians, who are among the best behaved of the Chinese, allows its officials to steal at will from humble ordinary Chinese who are trying to improve their lot in life, and tolerates the most outrageous vice and exploitation so that it can skim the profits.

    Xi Jinping and his "president for life" status marks a sharp turn away from progress toward rule of law to rule of man, and this is a development that Americans should view with great trepidation. Chinese themselves should be even more worried -- dictators usually end up causing enormous trauma to their subjects.

    A free China governed according to rule of law could be the greatest source of good in the world. I believe this could be one of the main pillars of the salvation of mankind, but China is going in the other direction, and this must be resisted.

    Finally, yes, America has lots of problems. Maybe they will be the end of us (although I doubt it). But they just don't compare to what's going on in China. I'd recommend you visit China, and make sure you spend lots of time outside the showcase city centers. Get to know the common people - the laobaixing - and listen to their stories. Go spend some time with peasants, too. The peasants are very hospitable, generous and kind people. Learn about how they are treated by those with power. It will give you an entirely new perspective on the PRC.
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  109. @Cicerone

    Was Tokyo a population sink before the American population? I kind of doubt it. Probably had lesser fertility than the countryside, but I bet it was above replacement.
     
    Before WWII, Tokyo had a fertility rate of around 3-4 children per woman while Japan was closer to 5.

    After the war, fertility collapsed in Japan.

    Lately, the situation has improved from extremely bad to very bad:

    https://farm2.staticflickr.com/1833/29870762828_78f71b9154_o.png

    Tokyo still, oddly, has one of the better TFRs in Japan(which isn’t saying much). I believe its only lower than Okinawa, which has the best TFR around 1.8(IIRC a bit higher) or so, who are not ethnically Yamato Japanese.

    Read More
    • Replies: @Cicerone
    Tokyo, alongside Hokkaido, actually has the lowest fertility rate in Japan and are the only prefectures below 1.3 children per woman. Okinawa is at 1.95.

    Generally, the rates are a bit higher in the south than in the north.

    You can check here the data for 2017 (on page 6/7):

    https://www.mhlw.go.jp/toukei/saikin/hw/jinkou/geppo/nengai17/dl/kekka.pdf
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  110. Cicerone says:
    @Daniel Chieh
    Tokyo still, oddly, has one of the better TFRs in Japan(which isn't saying much). I believe its only lower than Okinawa, which has the best TFR around 1.8(IIRC a bit higher) or so, who are not ethnically Yamato Japanese.

    Tokyo, alongside Hokkaido, actually has the lowest fertility rate in Japan and are the only prefectures below 1.3 children per woman. Okinawa is at 1.95.

    Generally, the rates are a bit higher in the south than in the north.

    You can check here the data for 2017 (on page 6/7):

    https://www.mhlw.go.jp/toukei/saikin/hw/jinkou/geppo/nengai17/dl/kekka.pdf

    Read More
    • Replies: @Daniel Chieh
    Thanks.
    , @Dmitry
    So in Japan, also the less "intelligent" (by IQ test scores) areas have higher fertility rates than the highest scoring ones (in test scores)

    The highest scoring region (Akita prefecture - with an average "IQ score" of 108), has one of the lower fertility rates (between 1.31-1.4).
    https://i.imgur.com/YD3FJ7F.jpg

    https://i.imgur.com/aDvv042.jpg

    Akita is this one on the map:
    http://www.washokulovers.com/wp-content/uploads/2017/10/akita_prefecture_header.jpg
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  111. Bill P says:
    @Daniel Chieh

    I want an aggressive, anti-American Communist regime isolated, and you see that as a problem because…?

     

    Because it is:

    1) Not actually communist
    2) Along with Russia, arguably one of the few states that is solidly anti-Cathedral
    3) America, unfortunately, has become the side of the Great Gay Disco.

    https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=3FzVMKK-MW4

    Xi Jinping is most assuredly a Communist, and he could care less about the “cathedral”, and certainly can and does work with American elites against the interests of most Americans so as to weaken the US as a whole.

    BTW, if you go to China for a while, you’ll notice a strange phenomenon. Govt. run media outlets will enthusiastically promote the worst of the cathedral narrative, using films and shows made right here in the USA by the most degenerate anti-American trash, even though your typical Chinese has no interest in them, and would rather watch something like Walker, Texas Ranger (that show was extremely popular in China).

    The regime also brutalizes innocent, faithful Christians, who are among the best behaved of the Chinese, allows its officials to steal at will from humble ordinary Chinese who are trying to improve their lot in life, and tolerates the most outrageous vice and exploitation so that it can skim the profits.

    Xi Jinping and his “president for life” status marks a sharp turn away from progress toward rule of law to rule of man, and this is a development that Americans should view with great trepidation. Chinese themselves should be even more worried — dictators usually end up causing enormous trauma to their subjects.

    A free China governed according to rule of law could be the greatest source of good in the world. I believe this could be one of the main pillars of the salvation of mankind, but China is going in the other direction, and this must be resisted.

    Finally, yes, America has lots of problems. Maybe they will be the end of us (although I doubt it). But they just don’t compare to what’s going on in China. I’d recommend you visit China, and make sure you spend lots of time outside the showcase city centers. Get to know the common people – the laobaixing – and listen to their stories. Go spend some time with peasants, too. The peasants are very hospitable, generous and kind people. Learn about how they are treated by those with power. It will give you an entirely new perspective on the PRC.

    Read More
    • Replies: @Daniel Chieh
    I lived in China during the Jian Zeming era; the corruption was immeasurably worse than it is now although still it never was as bad as some people make it out to be. Whatever else that can be said about Emperor Xi, he has reigned in a lot of excesses and it actually looks like a place with direction now. The extension of the GFW is the most annoying thing, of course.

    And so far, I haven't seen a rainbow flag flying outside of Tiananming, but there's one right outside Berlin's government buildings. And same sex marriages are not a thing - admittedly in large part to prevent the inevitable abuse of it for hukou, but hey, whatever works.

    Sixth Tone is not the voice of the Party; I am not certain if absolute "rule of law" is such a great thing at the end of the day, as it effectively serves to become a bureaucratic vehicle that really is "rule by judges." Notably, Confucianism is a certain degree of "rule by man" through the existence of normative values.

    Peasants are peasants. They can be nice people. They will not be the shining harbingers of a new future.
    , @Daniel Chieh
    And there is, indeed, an example of a free, democratic Chinese state of Taiwan. It could be best described as: glamorous dysfunction, except its not very glamorous with its 1980s era buildings these days. Glorious peasant takeover has effected great...improvements in cargo culting.
    , @Anon

    The regime also brutalizes innocent, faithful Christians, who are among the best behaved of the Chinese, allows its officials to steal at will from humble ordinary Chinese who are trying to improve their lot in life, and tolerates the most outrageous vice and exploitation so that it can skim the profits.
     
    Have you been to a Chinese Church? Many of my relatives in China are Christians and they go to church regularly. I used to be one but don't consider myself a Christian anymore ,although I went to church with them once last year.

    I keep reading about how China brutalizes Christians. It is total nonsense. Those had problems with the government because they didn't follow the laws. For example, building a huge a church on a public land without permit. What do you expect the Chinese government would do? Yes those evil CCP would demolish it. And don't con people's money either. That wouldn't sit well with the CCP. Stuff like this won't fly in China: "A televangelist wants his followers to pay for a $54 million private jet. It’s his fourth plane." The CCP wanted to control certain things just like the US government wanted to control certain things. That is why you have Waco siege in the US, and church demolition in China.

    And speaking of religion, Chinese Muslims took over the streets in Shanghai to pray. Yes, that was allowed. The CCP, at least in the last 10 years, is a lot more tolerant than you think.

    https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=tmLFOzG1CqM&t=75s


    Get to know the common people – the laobaixing – and listen to their stories. Go spend some time with peasants, too. The peasants are very hospitable, generous and kind people. Learn about how they are treated by those with power. It will give you an entirely new perspective on the PRC.
     
    I am a laobaixing. My parents were peasants. When I was a kid, I had only one pair of shoes which I wore during the winter. I walked around bare feet most of time. People in my area were poor, which was not surprising. China was one of the poorest countries in the world. The CCP, with its corruption and other warts, has done a pretty good job the last 30 years. There is still a lot of room for improvement, but giving where the starting point was, (just looked at where China was 100 years ago) it is unreasonable to ask the CCP to accomplish everything in such a short time with such a huge population. Everyone I know complains about the CCP all the time. But deep down, they know the grass is not always greener on the other side, and they know things are getting better each year.


    http://www.worldbank.org/en/country/china/overview
    Since initiating market reforms in 1978, it has lifted more than 800 million people out of poverty


    The country's poverty rate dropped from 10.2 per cent in 2012 to 3.1 per cent in 2017 which is an impressive progress in poverty reduction, it said.

    China aims to eliminate absolute poverty by 2020 as part of the creation of a moderately prosperous society.

    There were around 30 million Chinese living below the national poverty line at the end of last year, state-run Xinhua news agency reported.

    Read more at:
    //economictimes.indiatimes.com/articleshow/62863326.cms?utm_source=contentofinterest&utm_medium=text&utm_campaign=cppst


    Many Chinese elites look up to the US for it is a great country. Since 1776, is there a country that has done better than the US? The answer is no. The Chinese elites have watched and studies the US, Singapore and Taiwan since the 80s. Many watched Taiwan with hopeful eyes. Taiwan's democracy excited them, and they thought China should follow suit if free election worked out well in Taiwan. Unfortunately democracy has become a farce in Taiwan where in-fightings and short team plannings have been detrimental to Taiwan's development. It is pretty clear at this point that the CCP will not adopt free election any time soon. Not that they didn't try. They tested voting process in villages and the result wasn't good. The same people got voted in repeatedly and the corruption was even worse. I was a proponent of free election in China, but I have come to the conclusion after years of studies and travels in China that China, at this point, is better off with the CCP.

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  112. @Bill P
    Xi Jinping is most assuredly a Communist, and he could care less about the "cathedral", and certainly can and does work with American elites against the interests of most Americans so as to weaken the US as a whole.

    BTW, if you go to China for a while, you'll notice a strange phenomenon. Govt. run media outlets will enthusiastically promote the worst of the cathedral narrative, using films and shows made right here in the USA by the most degenerate anti-American trash, even though your typical Chinese has no interest in them, and would rather watch something like Walker, Texas Ranger (that show was extremely popular in China).

    The regime also brutalizes innocent, faithful Christians, who are among the best behaved of the Chinese, allows its officials to steal at will from humble ordinary Chinese who are trying to improve their lot in life, and tolerates the most outrageous vice and exploitation so that it can skim the profits.

    Xi Jinping and his "president for life" status marks a sharp turn away from progress toward rule of law to rule of man, and this is a development that Americans should view with great trepidation. Chinese themselves should be even more worried -- dictators usually end up causing enormous trauma to their subjects.

    A free China governed according to rule of law could be the greatest source of good in the world. I believe this could be one of the main pillars of the salvation of mankind, but China is going in the other direction, and this must be resisted.

    Finally, yes, America has lots of problems. Maybe they will be the end of us (although I doubt it). But they just don't compare to what's going on in China. I'd recommend you visit China, and make sure you spend lots of time outside the showcase city centers. Get to know the common people - the laobaixing - and listen to their stories. Go spend some time with peasants, too. The peasants are very hospitable, generous and kind people. Learn about how they are treated by those with power. It will give you an entirely new perspective on the PRC.

    I lived in China during the Jian Zeming era; the corruption was immeasurably worse than it is now although still it never was as bad as some people make it out to be. Whatever else that can be said about Emperor Xi, he has reigned in a lot of excesses and it actually looks like a place with direction now. The extension of the GFW is the most annoying thing, of course.

    And so far, I haven’t seen a rainbow flag flying outside of Tiananming, but there’s one right outside Berlin’s government buildings. And same sex marriages are not a thing – admittedly in large part to prevent the inevitable abuse of it for hukou, but hey, whatever works.

    Sixth Tone is not the voice of the Party; I am not certain if absolute “rule of law” is such a great thing at the end of the day, as it effectively serves to become a bureaucratic vehicle that really is “rule by judges.” Notably, Confucianism is a certain degree of “rule by man” through the existence of normative values.

    Peasants are peasants. They can be nice people. They will not be the shining harbingers of a new future.

    Read More
    • Replies: @iffen
    Peasants are peasants. They can be nice people. They will not be the shining harbingers of a new future.

    Peasants endure and they are very good at it.
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  113. @Cicerone
    Tokyo, alongside Hokkaido, actually has the lowest fertility rate in Japan and are the only prefectures below 1.3 children per woman. Okinawa is at 1.95.

    Generally, the rates are a bit higher in the south than in the north.

    You can check here the data for 2017 (on page 6/7):

    https://www.mhlw.go.jp/toukei/saikin/hw/jinkou/geppo/nengai17/dl/kekka.pdf

    Thanks.

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  114. @Guillaume Tell

    With regard to China it is basically impossible that it has a CBR of 12.4/1000 and a TFR of below 1.5, comparing other countries with a similar age structure, its TFR is likely around 1.7.
     
    I am no expert of Chinese demographics, but how does that square off with four decades of supposedly ruthlessly-enforced one-child policy? Something must give. Is it the CPC not that ruthless after all?

    The one child policy was never universally “ruthlessly” enforced. You are mistaking Western human rights agitprop for reality. For every commies aborted my baby sob story, there was thousands of buy me dinner and give me some cigarettes and booze and I’ll look the other way non story. Fact is, plenty of Chinese still do have multiple children. All of my paternal cousins have siblings and half of my maternal ones do as well. The only reason I didn’t was because of my mother’s extremely late at the time age of giving birth to me (30) and because my father was still working on his PhD and couldn’t afford another and by the time he could, it was too late for my mom. The only sector where enforcement was total was on the party itself. Xi Jinping and all the other members of the Politburo have only 1 child each (well legally recognized child that is).

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  115. @Bill P
    Xi Jinping is most assuredly a Communist, and he could care less about the "cathedral", and certainly can and does work with American elites against the interests of most Americans so as to weaken the US as a whole.

    BTW, if you go to China for a while, you'll notice a strange phenomenon. Govt. run media outlets will enthusiastically promote the worst of the cathedral narrative, using films and shows made right here in the USA by the most degenerate anti-American trash, even though your typical Chinese has no interest in them, and would rather watch something like Walker, Texas Ranger (that show was extremely popular in China).

    The regime also brutalizes innocent, faithful Christians, who are among the best behaved of the Chinese, allows its officials to steal at will from humble ordinary Chinese who are trying to improve their lot in life, and tolerates the most outrageous vice and exploitation so that it can skim the profits.

    Xi Jinping and his "president for life" status marks a sharp turn away from progress toward rule of law to rule of man, and this is a development that Americans should view with great trepidation. Chinese themselves should be even more worried -- dictators usually end up causing enormous trauma to their subjects.

    A free China governed according to rule of law could be the greatest source of good in the world. I believe this could be one of the main pillars of the salvation of mankind, but China is going in the other direction, and this must be resisted.

    Finally, yes, America has lots of problems. Maybe they will be the end of us (although I doubt it). But they just don't compare to what's going on in China. I'd recommend you visit China, and make sure you spend lots of time outside the showcase city centers. Get to know the common people - the laobaixing - and listen to their stories. Go spend some time with peasants, too. The peasants are very hospitable, generous and kind people. Learn about how they are treated by those with power. It will give you an entirely new perspective on the PRC.

    And there is, indeed, an example of a free, democratic Chinese state of Taiwan. It could be best described as: glamorous dysfunction, except its not very glamorous with its 1980s era buildings these days. Glorious peasant takeover has effected great…improvements in cargo culting.

    Read More
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  116. Dmitry says:
    @reiner Tor
    OT

    Armata mass production further delayed and/or cancelled, apparently it's too expensive.

    https://defence-blog.com/army/russian-armata-modern-tanks-production-delayed-due-high-cost.html

    I think it’s sensible – like they are sounding more responsibly and logical this year.

    Initial plan was to produce 2,300 by 2020.

    But is there need suddenly for 2,300 new tanks – after they created hundreds of modernized T-72 B3?

    Currently there are almost 3000 active tanks (mainly T-72, but also hundreds of T-90).

    In addition, already hundreds of T-72 B3 upgraded in the last few years, and they are equal specifications than any NATO tanks, which would be its opposition.

    Upgrading to T-72 B3 costs more than ten times less than each T-14.

    -

    T-14 costs 250 million rubles each (enough to build a couple of schools for each tank).

    So original plan was to produce 2,300 by 2020 – costing 575 billion rubles.

    -

    NATO itself has already much more minor tank forces deployed in Europe.

    Germany greatly decreased its tank forces to around 300. Countries like Poland have 200 tanks. Hungary have 34 T-72s.

    Latvia has 0 tanks.

    Lithuania has 0 tanks.

    Estonia has 0 tanks.

    So is there need for 2,300, even if you were preparing for war?

    Deterrence effect itself of building 2,300 tanks would be very large, it is true.

    But the already demonstrated, technological capacity to design and build such a tank as T-14, which is significantly more ambitious than any Western tank projects – is surely itself already quite a lot of deterrence.

    Read More
    • Replies: @AP
    Ukraine has about 700 T-64BM and BV's, and about 300 T-72s, according to Russian wiki.:
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  117. @neutral
    Northerner means Mongolian?

    The modern dividing line between North and South China is the Huai river, nestled between the better known Yellow and Yangtze rivers. A more accurate dividing line would be a north, a center encompassing the southern parts of the traditional north and the northern parts of the traditional south, and a southern coast that is basically Fujian and Guangdong. Guangxi and Yunnan aren’t traditionally Southern so much as recently (17th century) acquired frontier zones.

    The historic north is really the territory of Zhou ducal states of the Spring and Autumn period.

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  118. jim jones says:
    @Toronto Russian

    As I understand it, the One Child Policy was itself inspired by the neo-Malthusian gloom of those times, adjusted for Western intellectual trends coming a decade late to the Communist world; Paul R. Ehrlich had published his famous(ly wrong) book Population Bomb a decade earlier, in 1968.
     
    I've got an interesting excerpt from 1978 book Class about the overpopulation scare in the UK:

    At the beginning of the 'seventies the small-is-beautiful brigade mounted a campaign to bring down the birthrate. Family Planning Association supporters brandished condoms outside the House of Commons and at parties sidled up bossily to women who'd just had babies saying, 'Two's your ration.' Middle-class lefties were rumoured to be concealing third babies in attics rather than display evidence of such social irresponsibility. Disapproving ads appeared in cinemas showing defeated slatterns in curlers trailing herds of whining children along the streets. 'Superdad or Scrounger?' demanded the Daily Mirror when a man on Social Security proudly produced his twenty-first child.

    In the face of economic gloom, a rocketing dole queue and mothers wanting to get back to work, people probably thought twice about bringing more children into the world. Whatever the cause, the campaign worked. The birthrate in the United Kingdom dropped by 30 per cent. The working classes in particular, having discovered the pill, curbed production dramatically and at the last count were only producing 2.16 children per family, while the upper-middles were down to 1.7. Indeed, the higher you go up the social scale, the smaller the family, although the aristocracy tend to run unpatriotically riot, probably because, as Evelyn Waugh pointed out, 'Impotence and sodomy are socially O.K., but birth control is flagrantly middle-class.' One can't imagine an aristocrat having a vasectomy.
     

    Jacob Rees Mogg is a notoriously upper class politician in the UK, he is famous for having six children.

    Read More
    • Replies: @DFH
    Catholicism in action. Waugh (also a Catholic convert, although only aspirationally upper class) had seven.
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  119. Anon[290] • Disclaimer says:
    @Bill P
    Xi Jinping is most assuredly a Communist, and he could care less about the "cathedral", and certainly can and does work with American elites against the interests of most Americans so as to weaken the US as a whole.

    BTW, if you go to China for a while, you'll notice a strange phenomenon. Govt. run media outlets will enthusiastically promote the worst of the cathedral narrative, using films and shows made right here in the USA by the most degenerate anti-American trash, even though your typical Chinese has no interest in them, and would rather watch something like Walker, Texas Ranger (that show was extremely popular in China).

    The regime also brutalizes innocent, faithful Christians, who are among the best behaved of the Chinese, allows its officials to steal at will from humble ordinary Chinese who are trying to improve their lot in life, and tolerates the most outrageous vice and exploitation so that it can skim the profits.

    Xi Jinping and his "president for life" status marks a sharp turn away from progress toward rule of law to rule of man, and this is a development that Americans should view with great trepidation. Chinese themselves should be even more worried -- dictators usually end up causing enormous trauma to their subjects.

    A free China governed according to rule of law could be the greatest source of good in the world. I believe this could be one of the main pillars of the salvation of mankind, but China is going in the other direction, and this must be resisted.

    Finally, yes, America has lots of problems. Maybe they will be the end of us (although I doubt it). But they just don't compare to what's going on in China. I'd recommend you visit China, and make sure you spend lots of time outside the showcase city centers. Get to know the common people - the laobaixing - and listen to their stories. Go spend some time with peasants, too. The peasants are very hospitable, generous and kind people. Learn about how they are treated by those with power. It will give you an entirely new perspective on the PRC.

    The regime also brutalizes innocent, faithful Christians, who are among the best behaved of the Chinese, allows its officials to steal at will from humble ordinary Chinese who are trying to improve their lot in life, and tolerates the most outrageous vice and exploitation so that it can skim the profits.

    Have you been to a Chinese Church? Many of my relatives in China are Christians and they go to church regularly. I used to be one but don’t consider myself a Christian anymore ,although I went to church with them once last year.

    I keep reading about how China brutalizes Christians. It is total nonsense. Those had problems with the government because they didn’t follow the laws. For example, building a huge a church on a public land without permit. What do you expect the Chinese government would do? Yes those evil CCP would demolish it. And don’t con people’s money either. That wouldn’t sit well with the CCP. Stuff like this won’t fly in China: “A televangelist wants his followers to pay for a $54 million private jet. It’s his fourth plane.” The CCP wanted to control certain things just like the US government wanted to control certain things. That is why you have Waco siege in the US, and church demolition in China.

    And speaking of religion, Chinese Muslims took over the streets in Shanghai to pray. Yes, that was allowed. The CCP, at least in the last 10 years, is a lot more tolerant than you think.

    Get to know the common people – the laobaixing – and listen to their stories. Go spend some time with peasants, too. The peasants are very hospitable, generous and kind people. Learn about how they are treated by those with power. It will give you an entirely new perspective on the PRC.

    I am a laobaixing. My parents were peasants. When I was a kid, I had only one pair of shoes which I wore during the winter. I walked around bare feet most of time. People in my area were poor, which was not surprising. China was one of the poorest countries in the world. The CCP, with its corruption and other warts, has done a pretty good job the last 30 years. There is still a lot of room for improvement, but giving where the starting point was, (just looked at where China was 100 years ago) it is unreasonable to ask the CCP to accomplish everything in such a short time with such a huge population. Everyone I know complains about the CCP all the time. But deep down, they know the grass is not always greener on the other side, and they know things are getting better each year.

    http://www.worldbank.org/en/country/china/overview

    Since initiating market reforms in 1978, it has lifted more than 800 million people out of poverty

    The country’s poverty rate dropped from 10.2 per cent in 2012 to 3.1 per cent in 2017 which is an impressive progress in poverty reduction, it said.

    China aims to eliminate absolute poverty by 2020 as part of the creation of a moderately prosperous society.

    There were around 30 million Chinese living below the national poverty line at the end of last year, state-run Xinhua news agency reported.

    Read more at:
    //economictimes.indiatimes.com/articleshow/62863326.cms?utm_source=contentofinterest&utm_medium=text&utm_campaign=cppst

    Many Chinese elites look up to the US for it is a great country. Since 1776, is there a country that has done better than the US? The answer is no. The Chinese elites have watched and studies the US, Singapore and Taiwan since the 80s. Many watched Taiwan with hopeful eyes. Taiwan’s democracy excited them, and they thought China should follow suit if free election worked out well in Taiwan. Unfortunately democracy has become a farce in Taiwan where in-fightings and short team plannings have been detrimental to Taiwan’s development. It is pretty clear at this point that the CCP will not adopt free election any time soon. Not that they didn’t try. They tested voting process in villages and the result wasn’t good. The same people got voted in repeatedly and the corruption was even worse. I was a proponent of free election in China, but I have come to the conclusion after years of studies and travels in China that China, at this point, is better off with the CCP.

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  120. DFH says:
    @jim jones
    Jacob Rees Mogg is a notoriously upper class politician in the UK, he is famous for having six children.

    Catholicism in action. Waugh (also a Catholic convert, although only aspirationally upper class) had seven.

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  121. Dmitry says:
    @Cicerone
    Tokyo, alongside Hokkaido, actually has the lowest fertility rate in Japan and are the only prefectures below 1.3 children per woman. Okinawa is at 1.95.

    Generally, the rates are a bit higher in the south than in the north.

    You can check here the data for 2017 (on page 6/7):

    https://www.mhlw.go.jp/toukei/saikin/hw/jinkou/geppo/nengai17/dl/kekka.pdf

    So in Japan, also the less “intelligent” (by IQ test scores) areas have higher fertility rates than the highest scoring ones (in test scores)

    The highest scoring region (Akita prefecture – with an average “IQ score” of 108), has one of the lower fertility rates (between 1.31-1.4).

    Akita is this one on the map:

    Read More
    • Replies: @Toronto Russian
    Okinawa is a clean and pleasant place where a record number of people live past 100. Even on backwoods roads, not a piece of garbage lies around; so safe that teenage girls stand by the roadside alone selling ice cream.
    https://www.flickr.com/photos/okinawa-soba/albums/72157634529695584
    Their low-scoring people are not like others' low-scoring people, even if average score (a measure not unlike average temperature in the hospital) really counts.
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  122. Based on my personal observations over the past 35 years, I can tell you that broad-based economic growth and opportunity is a necessary prerequisite for higher birth rates in the U.S. The Reagan economic boom made it more attractive for the boomers (then mostly in their 30′s) to have kids, as compared to the stagflation 70′s when the U.S. white fertility rate dropped to around 1.6.

    Later, Gen Xers started having kids during the late 90′s boom and during the housing bubble of the oughts. This all came to an end with the crash of ’08. If Trump’s economic policies result in another Reagan economic boom, then the fertility rate will go up. Otherwise it will go down.

    The other issue with having kids is the cost disease associated with the Big 3 (housing, education, health-care), which is much more of a problem today than in 1985.

    It is pointlessly silly to pontificate about the need for people to have kids without promoting broad-based economic growth and addressing the escalating costs of the Big 3.

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  123. iffen says:
    @Daniel Chieh
    I lived in China during the Jian Zeming era; the corruption was immeasurably worse than it is now although still it never was as bad as some people make it out to be. Whatever else that can be said about Emperor Xi, he has reigned in a lot of excesses and it actually looks like a place with direction now. The extension of the GFW is the most annoying thing, of course.

    And so far, I haven't seen a rainbow flag flying outside of Tiananming, but there's one right outside Berlin's government buildings. And same sex marriages are not a thing - admittedly in large part to prevent the inevitable abuse of it for hukou, but hey, whatever works.

    Sixth Tone is not the voice of the Party; I am not certain if absolute "rule of law" is such a great thing at the end of the day, as it effectively serves to become a bureaucratic vehicle that really is "rule by judges." Notably, Confucianism is a certain degree of "rule by man" through the existence of normative values.

    Peasants are peasants. They can be nice people. They will not be the shining harbingers of a new future.

    Peasants are peasants. They can be nice people. They will not be the shining harbingers of a new future.

    Peasants endure and they are very good at it.

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    • Agree: Talha
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  124. Bliss says:
    @Guillaume Tell
    So, was it in fact always possible to have more kids, without having to endure too much retaliation as a result?

    Two personal anecdotes:
    (1) I remember having seen a documentary, circa 2009, that was circulated in the form of DVDs amongst Catholics about massive-scale forced sterilizations, or permanently-implanted abortifacient hardware at the time of first birth without the woman's consent. That DVD was published by some Catholic outfit, JP2/pro-life kind of. According to said documentary (that was intelligently presented), the UN was in cahoots with the Chinese commies to effectively pave the way for what would become a model campaign for the world as a whole. Was it all lies/exaggeration? No longer being a (Roman) Catholic now, I am viewing these things with not a grain, but a block of salt nowadays. That said I would like that such policies be applied to the African continent.

    (2) Back in about 2010, I was nonchalantly wandering on the sidewalk in a large US city park, with my pregnant wife, pushing a stroller with a baby in it, and 3 other kids in tow. At some point a bus stopped and park a few meters ahead of us. Then about 30-40 Chinese people walk out and surrounded us, making pictures, kind of congratulating us, counting the kids, and talking to each other in complete excitement. That was a very odd moment, but we took it easily, and gracefully accepted to be pictured with some of the older chink ladies. We thought we really had made their day, and I think that we are now in some photo albums in the RPC. In retrospect I find this story quite sad -- not for us, but for them. You could tell in this women's eyes that they were seeing something that, no doubt, they would have loved for themselves. Sad.

    I would like that such policies be applied to the African continent.

    Sure you would.

    One can fit 3 Chinas in Africa and still have plenty of room to spare. Barring unforeseen events Africa could end the 21st century with a population of 2 billion or more. That would still be less than half as crowded as China is today.

    gracefully accepted to be pictured with some of the older chink ladies.

    Real classy aren’t you?

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    • Replies: @Thorfinnsson

    One can fit 3 Chinas in Africa and still have plenty of room to spare. Barring unforeseen events Africa could end the 21st century with a population of 2 billion or more. That would still be less than half as crowded as China is today.
     
    The population density of Africa is not the relevant concern.

    The issue is the quality of population, which is abysmally low.

    Negroids are a pestilence which destroy everything they come in contact with (unless enslaved), and it is obviously undesirable for this pestilence to grow.

    The goal should be a century or two from now for negroids to be preserved solely in wild life reserves, living as hunter-gatherers while being studied by anthropologists and viewed from tourist buses.

    Most of the productive arable land in Africa would of course be turned over to cultivation, and cities in Africa would be exclusively inhabited by civilized populations originating in Northern Eurasia.

    , @Hyperborean

    One can fit 3 Chinas in Africa and still have plenty of room to spare. Barring unforeseen events Africa could end the 21st century with a population of 2 billion or more. That would still be less than half as crowded as China is today.
     
    Then maybe Africans should stay in Africa.
    , @Another German Reader
    The ever repeated myth that Africa could substain much higher population.

    First: Sahara

    Second: Sahel zone -> very arid, conditions are getting worse and that forces the nomads with their cattle to go further South and there are already communal violence between farmers and cattle-herders from Ghana to Kenya.

    Third: Central Africa (Congo etc.) -> Despite the jungle, the soil is actually low quality.

    Fourth: Institutional/Social memory -> The Tiger economies were already centralized countries with an emperor/king/sultan - privy council - all the way down to the local official/rural gentry. SSA had barely tribal federations. The Communist Party of China's local secretary is just the modern-day imperial mandarin sent from Beijing.

    Food: Some countries (Southern Africa) are able to feed themselves or could be with modern/efficient methods (Simbabwe), but many are already beyond their carrying capacity (Niger, Egypt, Chad).

    Fifth: Corruption exist everywhere. But State-Capture is mainly are Arab/African/Central Asian affair.

    IMHO: You will see humanitarian catrastrophies in MENA, SSA that will make the famines/civil wars of 1980s look like a picnic. The Syrian/Yemeni civil warand the migration of Young Angry Men to Europe is only the beginning.
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  125. @Bliss

    I would like that such policies be applied to the African continent.
     
    Sure you would.

    One can fit 3 Chinas in Africa and still have plenty of room to spare. Barring unforeseen events Africa could end the 21st century with a population of 2 billion or more. That would still be less than half as crowded as China is today.

    gracefully accepted to be pictured with some of the older chink ladies.
     
    Real classy aren’t you?

    One can fit 3 Chinas in Africa and still have plenty of room to spare. Barring unforeseen events Africa could end the 21st century with a population of 2 billion or more. That would still be less than half as crowded as China is today.

    The population density of Africa is not the relevant concern.

    The issue is the quality of population, which is abysmally low.

    Negroids are a pestilence which destroy everything they come in contact with (unless enslaved), and it is obviously undesirable for this pestilence to grow.

    The goal should be a century or two from now for negroids to be preserved solely in wild life reserves, living as hunter-gatherers while being studied by anthropologists and viewed from tourist buses.

    Most of the productive arable land in Africa would of course be turned over to cultivation, and cities in Africa would be exclusively inhabited by civilized populations originating in Northern Eurasia.

    Read More
    • Replies: @DFH

    (unless enslaved)
     
    They destroy things then too
    , @AaronB

    The goal should be a century or two from now for negroids to be preserved solely in wild life reserves, living as hunter-gatherers
     
    Sounds like paradise. Are whites allowed to join if they want?

    I like this idea of reserves for people who want different lifestyles. You can have modern cities with technology based on consumerism and economic competition and others can have a hunter gatherer lifestyle if they want.

    I make great effort to go backpacking and hiking and if the dominant society would let me live like that year round with a few like minded friends, free of the modern world, campfires under the stars...

    You got my vote Thor! When u starting your campaign already?
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  126. @Bliss

    I would like that such policies be applied to the African continent.
     
    Sure you would.

    One can fit 3 Chinas in Africa and still have plenty of room to spare. Barring unforeseen events Africa could end the 21st century with a population of 2 billion or more. That would still be less than half as crowded as China is today.

    gracefully accepted to be pictured with some of the older chink ladies.
     
    Real classy aren’t you?

    One can fit 3 Chinas in Africa and still have plenty of room to spare. Barring unforeseen events Africa could end the 21st century with a population of 2 billion or more. That would still be less than half as crowded as China is today.

    Then maybe Africans should stay in Africa.

    Read More
    • Replies: @Bliss

    Then maybe Africans should stay in Africa.
     
    And Europeans should stay in Europe?
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  127. Bliss says:
    @Annatar
    Regarding Iran and China, their fertility rates are likely higher then many estimates.

    Iran as of 2017 had a CBR of around 19/1000, considering its current age structure it is highly unlikely it has a TFR of only 1.7, other countries with CBR's of around 20/1000 and a similar age structure all have TFR's of around 2.1 to 2.4.

    With regard to China it is basically impossible that it has a CBR of 12.4/1000 and a TFR of below 1.5, comparing other countries with a similar age structure, its TFR is likely around 1.7.

    Somewhat off-topic, for all the talk about low Chinese birthrates, China has a CBR then every single major western nation, even the US in 2017 had a CBR of only 11.9/1000. China's demographic situation is better then basically every major power currently in the world something that the media never seem to realize as they predict impending demographic doom for China. And of course China has huge population to begin with so even if the population stops growing, the amount of human capital that is present in a population of 1.4 billion with a an IQ of above 100 is more then enough for total hegemony if used properly.

    the amount of human capital that is present in a population of 1.4 billion with a an IQ of above 100 is more then enough for total hegemony if used properly.

    The Age of AI (artificial intelligence) is coming soon. A few points advantage in human IQ won’t make a difference then.

    Read More
    • Replies: @Daniel Chieh

    The Age of AI (artificial intelligence) is coming soon. A few points advantage in human IQ won’t make a difference then.

     

    There are some interesting advances on machine learning, but the central problem of advanced general intelligence seems as elusive now as it was twenty years ago. All other examples of machine learning at this moment are largely domain specific within a limited problem set, the "forklifts winning at weightlifting" issue and are much less efficient than organic systems. At this moment, genetic engineering for intelligence actually seems more likely.

    We can't seem to fully replicate a flatworm behavior, for example, despite complete neural emulation; but we can increase BDNF hormone expression artificially in the brain(and it has positive effect on learning), there's an identified gene that increases BDNF as well. Either direct increase of the hormone, or editing the gene into hosts will seem to have positive effects.

    There are likely probable ways to combine the two, though, and mechanically aid cognitive performance(transcranial direct stimulation, mechanical telepathy, etc). The "wetware" component will probably remain a part of our generation at least.
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  128. Bliss says:
    @Hyperborean

    One can fit 3 Chinas in Africa and still have plenty of room to spare. Barring unforeseen events Africa could end the 21st century with a population of 2 billion or more. That would still be less than half as crowded as China is today.
     
    Then maybe Africans should stay in Africa.

    Then maybe Africans should stay in Africa.

    And Europeans should stay in Europe?

    Read More
    • Replies: @German_reader
    They mostly do nowadays, colonialism ended decades ago.
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  129. DFH says:
    @Thorfinnsson

    One can fit 3 Chinas in Africa and still have plenty of room to spare. Barring unforeseen events Africa could end the 21st century with a population of 2 billion or more. That would still be less than half as crowded as China is today.
     
    The population density of Africa is not the relevant concern.

    The issue is the quality of population, which is abysmally low.

    Negroids are a pestilence which destroy everything they come in contact with (unless enslaved), and it is obviously undesirable for this pestilence to grow.

    The goal should be a century or two from now for negroids to be preserved solely in wild life reserves, living as hunter-gatherers while being studied by anthropologists and viewed from tourist buses.

    Most of the productive arable land in Africa would of course be turned over to cultivation, and cities in Africa would be exclusively inhabited by civilized populations originating in Northern Eurasia.

    (unless enslaved)

    They destroy things then too

    Read More
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  130. @Bliss

    Then maybe Africans should stay in Africa.
     
    And Europeans should stay in Europe?

    They mostly do nowadays, colonialism ended decades ago.

    Read More
    • Replies: @Bliss
    Europeans ended up in Africa not just as colonials but also as slaves.

    https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/White_slavery

    There are more Europeans in Africa than there are Africans in Europe.
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  131. Bliss says:
    @German_reader
    They mostly do nowadays, colonialism ended decades ago.

    Europeans ended up in Africa not just as colonials but also as slaves.

    https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/White_slavery

    There are more Europeans in Africa than there are Africans in Europe.

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    • Replies: @Hyperborean
    Bliss, I am glad that you acknowledge the fact that you owe us reparations.
    , @German_reader

    There are more Europeans in Africa than there are Africans in Europe
     
    The difference is that Portuguese etc. in places like Angola are legal immigrants with useful skills...and nobody would entertain the idea that Africans should just hand over their countries to Europeans. There's no equivalence to what's going on in Europe with the entire asylum, open borders and "antiracism" business where powerful establishment forces are de facto enabling an invasion.
    As for long-established communities of European origin, it seems to me most have dwindled since colonial times. There's South Africa of course, but even if the "white genocide" meme may be somewhat exaggerated, I don't think that's really a positive example of successful black-white tolerance and cooperation.
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  132. @Bliss
    Europeans ended up in Africa not just as colonials but also as slaves.

    https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/White_slavery

    There are more Europeans in Africa than there are Africans in Europe.

    Bliss, I am glad that you acknowledge the fact that you owe us reparations.

    Read More
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  133. AP says:
    @Dmitry
    I think it's sensible - like they are sounding more responsibly and logical this year.

    Initial plan was to produce 2,300 by 2020.

    But is there need suddenly for 2,300 new tanks - after they created hundreds of modernized T-72 B3?

    Currently there are almost 3000 active tanks (mainly T-72, but also hundreds of T-90).

    In addition, already hundreds of T-72 B3 upgraded in the last few years, and they are equal specifications than any NATO tanks, which would be its opposition.

    Upgrading to T-72 B3 costs more than ten times less than each T-14.

    -

    T-14 costs 250 million rubles each (enough to build a couple of schools for each tank).

    So original plan was to produce 2,300 by 2020 - costing 575 billion rubles.

    -

    NATO itself has already much more minor tank forces deployed in Europe.

    Germany greatly decreased its tank forces to around 300. Countries like Poland have 200 tanks. Hungary have 34 T-72s.

    Latvia has 0 tanks.

    Lithuania has 0 tanks.

    Estonia has 0 tanks.

    So is there need for 2,300, even if you were preparing for war?

    Deterrence effect itself of building 2,300 tanks would be very large, it is true.

    But the already demonstrated, technological capacity to design and build such a tank as T-14, which is significantly more ambitious than any Western tank projects - is surely itself already quite a lot of deterrence.

    Ukraine has about 700 T-64BM and BV’s, and about 300 T-72s, according to Russian wiki.:

    Read More
    • Replies: @Dmitry
    Number of tanks which are active and operational in Ukraine, will be far lower than this.

    It will be at best a similar story to numbers of T-80s in Russia. There are over 3000 in storage now. Yet actual number of T-80 which are operating today is only several hundreds.

    -

    Baltic countries have 0 tanks, but they are part of NATO.

    In Poland, American force deployed with over 200 tanks.

    However, in any way you can count, Russia will still have more (even high quality) tanks in relevant parts of Europe than NATO + Ukraine, even before accounting for any production of T-14.

    -

    Any actual war between neighbours would be a stupid disaster, but even if purpose is to prepare for war, producing 2,300 T-14 seems "overkill".

    And with deterrence impact, probably Law of Diminishing Returns in producing suddenly thousands of T-14, as combined NATO + Ukraine are already outnumbered in terms of tanks in the region.

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  134. @Bliss
    Europeans ended up in Africa not just as colonials but also as slaves.

    https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/White_slavery

    There are more Europeans in Africa than there are Africans in Europe.

    There are more Europeans in Africa than there are Africans in Europe

    The difference is that Portuguese etc. in places like Angola are legal immigrants with useful skills…and nobody would entertain the idea that Africans should just hand over their countries to Europeans. There’s no equivalence to what’s going on in Europe with the entire asylum, open borders and “antiracism” business where powerful establishment forces are de facto enabling an invasion.
    As for long-established communities of European origin, it seems to me most have dwindled since colonial times. There’s South Africa of course, but even if the “white genocide” meme may be somewhat exaggerated, I don’t think that’s really a positive example of successful black-white tolerance and cooperation.

    Read More
    • Replies: @Thorfinnsson


    and nobody would entertain the idea that Africans should just hand over their countries to Europeans.
     
    Nobody?

    I for one don't believe in the right of blacks to govern themselves, live in freedom, or to reproduce.
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  135. @German_reader

    There are more Europeans in Africa than there are Africans in Europe
     
    The difference is that Portuguese etc. in places like Angola are legal immigrants with useful skills...and nobody would entertain the idea that Africans should just hand over their countries to Europeans. There's no equivalence to what's going on in Europe with the entire asylum, open borders and "antiracism" business where powerful establishment forces are de facto enabling an invasion.
    As for long-established communities of European origin, it seems to me most have dwindled since colonial times. There's South Africa of course, but even if the "white genocide" meme may be somewhat exaggerated, I don't think that's really a positive example of successful black-white tolerance and cooperation.

    and nobody would entertain the idea that Africans should just hand over their countries to Europeans.

    Nobody?

    I for one don’t believe in the right of blacks to govern themselves, live in freedom, or to reproduce.

    Read More
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  136. Bliss says:

    There’s no equivalence to what’s going on in Europe with the entire asylum, open borders and “antiracism” business

    You are right, in an ass-backwards way. There is no equivalence between Africans immigrating to Europe and Europeans doing this to Africa:

    https://africanquarters.com/forgotten-european-atrocities-in-africa/

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    • Replies: @German_reader
    That's not exactly current affairs though, so I don't see your point, unless it's the usual "Africans deserve to take over Europe because of what the evil white man supposedly did 100 years ago".
    Anyway, this discussion is off-topic and not going to be illuminating, so I'll drop out. Maybe you can discuss the issue with Thorfinnsson :-)
    , @neutral

    There is no equivalence between Africans immigrating to Europe and Europeans doing this to Africa
     
    True, the mass immigration into Europe by Africans is profoundly worse and more destructive than anything that happened in Africa in the past. Nobody really cares about your stupid concern trolling as it is clear that the demographic destruction that Europe is facing did not happen in Africa. There are still Africans in Africa, in fact their numbers exploded because of colonialism, on the other hand whites are facing extinction.
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  137. @Bliss

    There’s no equivalence to what’s going on in Europe with the entire asylum, open borders and “antiracism” business
     
    You are right, in an ass-backwards way. There is no equivalence between Africans immigrating to Europe and Europeans doing this to Africa:

    https://africanquarters.com/forgotten-european-atrocities-in-africa/

    https://africanquarters.com/wp-content/uploads/2017/01/herero.jpg

    That’s not exactly current affairs though, so I don’t see your point, unless it’s the usual “Africans deserve to take over Europe because of what the evil white man supposedly did 100 years ago”.
    Anyway, this discussion is off-topic and not going to be illuminating, so I’ll drop out. Maybe you can discuss the issue with Thorfinnsson :-)

    Read More
    • Replies: @Bliss

    Maybe you can discuss the issue with Thorfinnsson :-)
     
    That guy is pure evil. Which of course brings a smile to your German face. Sad.

    https://allthatsinteresting.com/wordpress/wp-content/uploads/2016/09/leopold-ii-daughters-limbs.jpg

    The greed of the Congo’s overlords knew no boundaries, and the lengths to which they went to gratify it were likewise extreme. Just as Christopher Columbus had done in Hispaniola 400 years earlier, Leopold II imposed quotas on every man in his realm for production of raw materials.
    Men who failed to meet their ivory and gold quota even once would face mutilation, with hands and feet being the most popular sites for amputation. If the man could not be caught, or if he needed both hands to work, Forces Publique men would cut the hands off of his wife or children
    .
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  138. Bliss says:
    @German_reader
    That's not exactly current affairs though, so I don't see your point, unless it's the usual "Africans deserve to take over Europe because of what the evil white man supposedly did 100 years ago".
    Anyway, this discussion is off-topic and not going to be illuminating, so I'll drop out. Maybe you can discuss the issue with Thorfinnsson :-)

    Maybe you can discuss the issue with Thorfinnsson :-)

    That guy is pure evil. Which of course brings a smile to your German face. Sad.

    The greed of the Congo’s overlords knew no boundaries, and the lengths to which they went to gratify it were likewise extreme. Just as Christopher Columbus had done in Hispaniola 400 years earlier, Leopold II imposed quotas on every man in his realm for production of raw materials.
    Men who failed to meet their ivory and gold quota even once would face mutilation, with hands and feet being the most popular sites for amputation. If the man could not be caught, or if he needed both hands to work, Forces Publique men would cut the hands off of his wife or children
    .

    Read More
    • Replies: @Thorfinnsson
    Without the visionary actions of Leopold II, I wouldn't have Michelin Pilot Sport 4S tires today.

    These tires alone increased my grip on the skidpad by .02 G.

    It's important to have the right priorities.
    , @iffen
    Which of course brings a smile to your German face. Sad.

    No much of an argument here on your part.
    , @DFH
    Those were pretty terrible things, done to Africans by other Africans not ordered or supervised by Europeans

    http://thealternativehypothesis.org/index.php/2016/07/24/mythologies-about-leopolds-congo-free-state/
    , @Johann Ricke
    While the stuff about chopping off limbs has made its way to Wikipedia, it never made any sense to me. That's the kind of thing Africans did, and continue to do today in civil disturbances and full-fledged wars. Here's a passage from Alternative Hypothesis that contests Wikipedia's account:

    On issue historians face when condemning Leopold II is a lack of documentation; even a BBC documentary blithely accused Leopold of destroying the relevant records. It’s not a charge that is easy to respond to; how does one prove that no records were destroyed?

    But it shouldn’t matter, because from 1904 to 1908, in response to public outcry over the Congo, an independent council created by Italy, Switzerland and Belgium conducted an ongoing investigation and released periodical reports called The Official Bulletin of the Congo Free State (translation).

    Of course this council did not report extreme genocide going at the behest of Leopold’s government. In fact, they reported that the abuses occurred almost exclusively when FP detachments were sent out WITHOUT a European commander, and that the presence of European commanders was what prevented atrocities and rape.

    (It is interesting to read these bulletins and see just how matter-of-fact they are about it; it’s just assumed that blacks will rape unless kept in order by whites.)

    And in terms of mutilation – chopping off hands and feet – there is zero documentation that that was Leopold’s policy, nor did the investigation find any evidence that it was Leopold’s policy. In fact, the investigation claimed that this was done by indigenous members of the FP, particularly when a European officer was absent.

    In addition, chopping off limbs seems to be a ridiculous policy given that the biggest problem Leopold had was a labor shortage. It is also known that limb mutilation had occurred both before and after the Congo Free State – and without any reliable statistics, there’s no way to know if it even increased during the Congo Free State.

    The argument of the investigation was that Leopold’s government was not pro-active in stopping these atrocities and may have facilitated them by arming members of certain tribes who had long-running hatreds against other tribes.

    Amazingly, even after knowing this, some white readers will still do whatever they can to blame Leopold as the chief culprit for whatever happened, because it makes them feel like good people or something.
     
    I wouldn't even judge the Africans involved too harshly, given that it is likely that their rules of engagement were precisely the rules that have prevailed since time immemorial there - i.e. there are no rules because human enemies are far more dangerous than even the largest and fiercest predators. The book War Before Civilization looks at the kinds of things people did to survive against other human rivals, based on archaeological finds, and it's far worse than what Leopold's native troops did in using Leopold's weapons and training to fulfill their parochial, sectarian goals against their traditional African rivals.
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  139. @Bliss

    Maybe you can discuss the issue with Thorfinnsson :-)
     
    That guy is pure evil. Which of course brings a smile to your German face. Sad.

    https://allthatsinteresting.com/wordpress/wp-content/uploads/2016/09/leopold-ii-daughters-limbs.jpg

    The greed of the Congo’s overlords knew no boundaries, and the lengths to which they went to gratify it were likewise extreme. Just as Christopher Columbus had done in Hispaniola 400 years earlier, Leopold II imposed quotas on every man in his realm for production of raw materials.
    Men who failed to meet their ivory and gold quota even once would face mutilation, with hands and feet being the most popular sites for amputation. If the man could not be caught, or if he needed both hands to work, Forces Publique men would cut the hands off of his wife or children
    .

    Without the visionary actions of Leopold II, I wouldn’t have Michelin Pilot Sport 4S tires today.

    These tires alone increased my grip on the skidpad by .02 G.

    It’s important to have the right priorities.

    Read More
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  140. AaronB says:
    @Thorfinnsson

    One can fit 3 Chinas in Africa and still have plenty of room to spare. Barring unforeseen events Africa could end the 21st century with a population of 2 billion or more. That would still be less than half as crowded as China is today.
     
    The population density of Africa is not the relevant concern.

    The issue is the quality of population, which is abysmally low.

    Negroids are a pestilence which destroy everything they come in contact with (unless enslaved), and it is obviously undesirable for this pestilence to grow.

    The goal should be a century or two from now for negroids to be preserved solely in wild life reserves, living as hunter-gatherers while being studied by anthropologists and viewed from tourist buses.

    Most of the productive arable land in Africa would of course be turned over to cultivation, and cities in Africa would be exclusively inhabited by civilized populations originating in Northern Eurasia.

    The goal should be a century or two from now for negroids to be preserved solely in wild life reserves, living as hunter-gatherers

    Sounds like paradise. Are whites allowed to join if they want?

    I like this idea of reserves for people who want different lifestyles. You can have modern cities with technology based on consumerism and economic competition and others can have a hunter gatherer lifestyle if they want.

    I make great effort to go backpacking and hiking and if the dominant society would let me live like that year round with a few like minded friends, free of the modern world, campfires under the stars…

    You got my vote Thor! When u starting your campaign already?

    Read More
    • Replies: @Hyperborean
    I am sure you are more useful lying on a dissection board. You might even find it enjoyable.
    , @Thorfinnsson
    Plenty of whites living like this already in the Intermountain West, with the occasional "gathering" of provisions at sporting goods stores. They also defend their territory, hence the popularity of GET OUT bumper stickers in the great state of Montana.

    I'll launch my campaign in 2024 with the bold platform of using thermal depolymerization to convert retards like Bliss into valuable minerals and hydrocarbons.
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  141. @AaronB

    The goal should be a century or two from now for negroids to be preserved solely in wild life reserves, living as hunter-gatherers
     
    Sounds like paradise. Are whites allowed to join if they want?

    I like this idea of reserves for people who want different lifestyles. You can have modern cities with technology based on consumerism and economic competition and others can have a hunter gatherer lifestyle if they want.

    I make great effort to go backpacking and hiking and if the dominant society would let me live like that year round with a few like minded friends, free of the modern world, campfires under the stars...

    You got my vote Thor! When u starting your campaign already?

    I am sure you are more useful lying on a dissection board. You might even find it enjoyable.

    Read More
    • Replies: @AaronB
    I doubt you could learn anything useful by dissecting me - remember, you want to study people who are into technology, etc, so you can better optimize whatever it is you're always optimizing. If you dissected me you'd just learn which genes code for love of nature or some such useless thing.

    No, it's the Montana HG reservation that Thor will create that I must go to.
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  142. @AaronB

    The goal should be a century or two from now for negroids to be preserved solely in wild life reserves, living as hunter-gatherers
     
    Sounds like paradise. Are whites allowed to join if they want?

    I like this idea of reserves for people who want different lifestyles. You can have modern cities with technology based on consumerism and economic competition and others can have a hunter gatherer lifestyle if they want.

    I make great effort to go backpacking and hiking and if the dominant society would let me live like that year round with a few like minded friends, free of the modern world, campfires under the stars...

    You got my vote Thor! When u starting your campaign already?

    Plenty of whites living like this already in the Intermountain West, with the occasional “gathering” of provisions at sporting goods stores. They also defend their territory, hence the popularity of GET OUT bumper stickers in the great state of Montana.

    I’ll launch my campaign in 2024 with the bold platform of using thermal depolymerization to convert retards like Bliss into valuable minerals and hydrocarbons.

    Read More
    • Replies: @AaronB
    Yeah, but they still have "jobs" and are tied to the modern economy, they aren't true hunter gatherers. They are only "weekend warriors". I can do that in upstate NY. I want the real deal. Montana would be amazing as a site for a HG reservation - let's make it happen!

    Whooa, I thought we were only forcing Bliss into an HG lifestyle (which I'm sure he'd enjoy) - I dont know about converting him to minerals.
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  143. AaronB says:
    @Thorfinnsson
    Plenty of whites living like this already in the Intermountain West, with the occasional "gathering" of provisions at sporting goods stores. They also defend their territory, hence the popularity of GET OUT bumper stickers in the great state of Montana.

    I'll launch my campaign in 2024 with the bold platform of using thermal depolymerization to convert retards like Bliss into valuable minerals and hydrocarbons.

    Yeah, but they still have “jobs” and are tied to the modern economy, they aren’t true hunter gatherers. They are only “weekend warriors”. I can do that in upstate NY. I want the real deal. Montana would be amazing as a site for a HG reservation – let’s make it happen!

    Whooa, I thought we were only forcing Bliss into an HG lifestyle (which I’m sure he’d enjoy) – I dont know about converting him to minerals.

    Read More
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  144. AaronB says:
    @Hyperborean
    I am sure you are more useful lying on a dissection board. You might even find it enjoyable.

    I doubt you could learn anything useful by dissecting me – remember, you want to study people who are into technology, etc, so you can better optimize whatever it is you’re always optimizing. If you dissected me you’d just learn which genes code for love of nature or some such useless thing.

    No, it’s the Montana HG reservation that Thor will create that I must go to.

    Read More
    • Replies: @Hyperborean

    If you dissected me you’d just learn which genes code for love of nature or some such useless thing.
     
    But it would be a wonderful experience.
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  145. dfordoom says: • Website
    @Bill P
    I want an aggressive, anti-American Communist regime isolated, and you see that as a problem because...?

    I really don't know why the PRC gets a pass for following the same ideology as Cuba and North Korea, especially now that the Cold War has been over for more than a generation.

    I want an aggressive, anti-American Communist regime isolated

    I assume you’re talking about the U.S. Government. And I agree. Washington should certainly be isolated.

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  146. @AaronB
    I doubt you could learn anything useful by dissecting me - remember, you want to study people who are into technology, etc, so you can better optimize whatever it is you're always optimizing. If you dissected me you'd just learn which genes code for love of nature or some such useless thing.

    No, it's the Montana HG reservation that Thor will create that I must go to.

    If you dissected me you’d just learn which genes code for love of nature or some such useless thing.

    But it would be a wonderful experience.

    Read More
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  147. iffen says:
    @Bliss

    Maybe you can discuss the issue with Thorfinnsson :-)
     
    That guy is pure evil. Which of course brings a smile to your German face. Sad.

    https://allthatsinteresting.com/wordpress/wp-content/uploads/2016/09/leopold-ii-daughters-limbs.jpg

    The greed of the Congo’s overlords knew no boundaries, and the lengths to which they went to gratify it were likewise extreme. Just as Christopher Columbus had done in Hispaniola 400 years earlier, Leopold II imposed quotas on every man in his realm for production of raw materials.
    Men who failed to meet their ivory and gold quota even once would face mutilation, with hands and feet being the most popular sites for amputation. If the man could not be caught, or if he needed both hands to work, Forces Publique men would cut the hands off of his wife or children
    .

    Which of course brings a smile to your German face. Sad.

    No much of an argument here on your part.

    Read More
    • Replies: @Bliss
    Well, he put a smiley there when suggesting I engage with that evil pomposity Thugfinnson.

    I know german-reader’s opinion on such matters is not much different from the Thug’s. Still, I take back the “German” in that post. That was wrong. Not all Germans fit the Nazi stereotype.

    However it is undeniable that the colonial germans in Africa were genocidal Nazis a generation before the real Nazis came to be:

    https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/Herero_and_Namaqua_genocide

    The Herero and Nama genocide was a campaign of racial extermination and collective punishment that the German Empire undertook in German South West Africa (now Namibia) against the Ovaherero and the Nama. It is considered the first genocide of the 20th century.

    In 2004, the German government recognized and apologized for the events, but ruled out financial compensation for the victims' descendants. In July 2015, the German government and the speaker of the Bundestag officially called the events a "genocide" and "part of a race war". However, it has refused to consider reparations.

    “I was present when the Herero were defeated in a battle in the vicinity of Waterberg. After the battle all men, women, and children who fell into German hands, wounded or otherwise, were mercilessly put to death. Then the Germans set off in pursuit of the rest, and all those found by the wayside and in the sandveld were shot down and bayoneted to death. The mass of the Herero men were unarmed and thus unable to offer resistance. They were just trying to get away with their cattle.”

    Trotha gave orders that captured Herero males were to be executed, while women and children were to be driven into the desert where their death from starvation and thirst was to be certain; Trotha argued that there was no need to make exceptions for Herero women and children, since these would "infect German troops with their diseases", the insurrection Trotha explained "is and remains the beginning of a racial struggle". Regardless, German soldiers regularly raped young Herero women before killing them or letting them die in the desert.

    Upon the arrival of new orders at the end of 1904, prisoners were herded into concentration camps, where they were given to private companies as slave labourers or exploited as human guinea pigs in medical experiments.....Prisoners were used for medical experiments and their illnesses or their recoveries from them were used for research.

    The Herero genocide has commanded the attention of historians who study complex issues of continuity between the Herero genocide and the Holocaust. It is argued that the Herero genocide set a precedent in Imperial Germany that would later be followed by Nazi Germany's establishment of death camps.

    According to Benjamin Madley, the German experience in South West Africa was a crucial precursor to Nazi colonialism and genocide. He argues that personal connections, literature, and public debates served as conduits for communicating colonialist and genocidal ideas and methods from the colony to Germany. Tony Barta, an honorary research associate at La Trobe University, argues that the Herero genocide was an inspiration for Hitler in his war against the Jews, Slavs, Gypsies, and others described as "non-Aryans".

    According to Clarence Lusane, Eugen Fischer's medical experiments can be seen as a testing ground for later medical procedures used during the Nazi Holocaust.

    Mahmood Mamdani argues that the links between the Holocaust and the Herero genocide are beyond the execution of an annihilation policy and the establishment of concentration camps and that there are ideological similarities in the conduct of both genocides
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  148. songbird says:
    @Thorfinnsson
    Worth noting that South Africa under Verwoerd prohibited television as he considered it to be destructive of community and family.

    Worth noting that South Africa under Verwoerd prohibited television as he considered it to be destructive of community and family

    .

    Interesting. I didn’t realize that was a political policy. I thought it was developmental. They did have scripted radio shows. If I recall, they reproduced some old American radio shows, from the same scripts, some 30 or 40 years later.

    Radio is probably a harder medium for Leftists to hijack than TV, public radio aside.

    Read More
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  149. DFH says:
    @Bliss

    Maybe you can discuss the issue with Thorfinnsson :-)
     
    That guy is pure evil. Which of course brings a smile to your German face. Sad.

    https://allthatsinteresting.com/wordpress/wp-content/uploads/2016/09/leopold-ii-daughters-limbs.jpg

    The greed of the Congo’s overlords knew no boundaries, and the lengths to which they went to gratify it were likewise extreme. Just as Christopher Columbus had done in Hispaniola 400 years earlier, Leopold II imposed quotas on every man in his realm for production of raw materials.
    Men who failed to meet their ivory and gold quota even once would face mutilation, with hands and feet being the most popular sites for amputation. If the man could not be caught, or if he needed both hands to work, Forces Publique men would cut the hands off of his wife or children
    .

    Those were pretty terrible things, done to Africans by other Africans not ordered or supervised by Europeans

    http://thealternativehypothesis.org/index.php/2016/07/24/mythologies-about-leopolds-congo-free-state/

    Read More
    • Agree: Guillaume Tell
    • Replies: @Pericles
    Lol, that article has an eerie similarity to a thread here: http://www.unz.com/akarlin/brussels-impressions/#comment-2236513

    Though perhaps a liiittle bit better researched.

    In summary, Hochschild's scary genocide numbers seem to be bunk. Greatly exaggerated. Humanities types BTFO.

    , @Bliss

    Those were pretty terrible things, done to Africans by other Africans not ordered or supervised by Europeans
     
    Unfortunately for you and your ilk there are enough good people in Africa, Asia, Europe and the Americas who will make sure your lies, cover ups and fake histories will not stand:

    http://www.hartford-hwp.com/archives/35/181.html

    Leopold's "rubber terror" raised a lot of hairs in Britain, America and continental Europe (particularly between the years 1900-1908). But while they were condemning Leopold's barbarity, his accusers were committing much the same atrocities against Africans elsewhere on the continent.

    Hochschild cannot fathom how the reform movement in Europe focused exclusively on Leopold's Congo when "if you reckon [the] mass murder by the percentage of the population killed", the Germans did as much in Namibia, if not worse, than Leopold in Congo.

    "What happened in the Congo was indeed mass murder on a vast scale, but the sad truth is that the men who carried it out for Leopold were no more murderous than many Europeans then at work or at war elsewhere in Africa. Conrad said it best [in his book, Heart of Darkness, based on the brutalities in the Congo]: 'All Europe contributed to the making of Kurtz'."

    Hochshild believes that Kurtz was Leon Rom in real life. Rom was born in Mons in Belgium. Poorly educated, he joined the Belgian army aged 16. Nine years later, aged 25 in 1886, he found himself in the Congo in search of adventure. He became district commissioner at Matadi and was later put in charge of the African troops in Leopold's murderous Force Publique army in the Congo.

    Rom's brutality knew no bounds. It was such that even the white people working with him were shocked to their boots.

    "When Rom was station chief at Stanley Falls," Hochshild reveals, "the governor general sent a report back to Brussels about some agents who 'have the reputation of having killed masses of people for petty reasons'. He mentions Rom's notorious flower bed rigged with human heads, and then adds: 'He kept a gallows permanently erected in front of the station'."

    Morel's campaign in Europe and America finally forced Britain to ask its consul in Congo, the Irish patriot Sir Roger Casement, to make an investigative trip all over Congo and report. Casement's findings were so damning that the Foreign Office in London was too embarrassed that it could not publish the original.....Casement's description of "sliced hands and penises was far more graphic and forceful than the British government had expected".
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  150. Twinkie says:
    @Daniel Chieh
    No. Beijing, etc. Northern Chinese as opposed to Southern Chinese such as Guandong. Traditionally considered as taller and more martial people, having fought with the steppe dwellers since times immemorial: wheat-eating with buns and noodles.

    having fought with the steppe dwellers since times immemorial

    And I would bet that they also interbred with them to some extent, often not so willingly!

    Read More
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  151. Twinkie says:
    @Cicerone

    Was Tokyo a population sink before the American population? I kind of doubt it. Probably had lesser fertility than the countryside, but I bet it was above replacement.
     
    Before WWII, Tokyo had a fertility rate of around 3-4 children per woman while Japan was closer to 5.

    After the war, fertility collapsed in Japan.

    Lately, the situation has improved from extremely bad to very bad:

    https://farm2.staticflickr.com/1833/29870762828_78f71b9154_o.png

    Before WWII, Tokyo had a fertility rate of around 3-4 children per woman while Japan was closer to 5.

    That was probably the peak fertility of Japan in recorded history, especially if one counted children surviving to adulthood.

    Read More
    • Replies: @Wizard of Oz
    From memory of Greg Clark's "A Farewell to Alms; etc" Japan's population rose hugely between the date of the Black Death or somewhat earlier until about the time the English population began to take off with the Industrial Revolution whereas the English population rose very slowly and allowed for the phenomenon noted by Clark to occur, namely the outbreeding of the poor and illiterate by the successful commercial and professional classes.
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  152. Bliss says:
    @iffen
    Which of course brings a smile to your German face. Sad.

    No much of an argument here on your part.

    Well, he put a smiley there when suggesting I engage with that evil pomposity Thugfinnson.

    I know german-reader’s opinion on such matters is not much different from the Thug’s. Still, I take back the “German” in that post. That was wrong. Not all Germans fit the Nazi stereotype.

    However it is undeniable that the colonial germans in Africa were genocidal Nazis a generation before the real Nazis came to be:

    https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/Herero_and_Namaqua_genocide

    The Herero and Nama genocide was a campaign of racial extermination and collective punishment that the German Empire undertook in German South West Africa (now Namibia) against the Ovaherero and the Nama. It is considered the first genocide of the 20th century.

    In 2004, the German government recognized and apologized for the events, but ruled out financial compensation for the victims’ descendants. In July 2015, the German government and the speaker of the Bundestag officially called the events a “genocide” and “part of a race war”. However, it has refused to consider reparations.

    “I was present when the Herero were defeated in a battle in the vicinity of Waterberg. After the battle all men, women, and children who fell into German hands, wounded or otherwise, were mercilessly put to death. Then the Germans set off in pursuit of the rest, and all those found by the wayside and in the sandveld were shot down and bayoneted to death. The mass of the Herero men were unarmed and thus unable to offer resistance. They were just trying to get away with their cattle.”

    Trotha gave orders that captured Herero males were to be executed, while women and children were to be driven into the desert where their death from starvation and thirst was to be certain; Trotha argued that there was no need to make exceptions for Herero women and children, since these would “infect German troops with their diseases”, the insurrection Trotha explained “is and remains the beginning of a racial struggle”. Regardless, German soldiers regularly raped young Herero women before killing them or letting them die in the desert.

    Upon the arrival of new orders at the end of 1904, prisoners were herded into concentration camps, where they were given to private companies as slave labourers or exploited as human guinea pigs in medical experiments…..Prisoners were used for medical experiments and their illnesses or their recoveries from them were used for research.

    The Herero genocide has commanded the attention of historians who study complex issues of continuity between the Herero genocide and the Holocaust. It is argued that the Herero genocide set a precedent in Imperial Germany that would later be followed by Nazi Germany’s establishment of death camps.

    According to Benjamin Madley, the German experience in South West Africa was a crucial precursor to Nazi colonialism and genocide. He argues that personal connections, literature, and public debates served as conduits for communicating colonialist and genocidal ideas and methods from the colony to Germany. Tony Barta, an honorary research associate at La Trobe University, argues that the Herero genocide was an inspiration for Hitler in his war against the Jews, Slavs, Gypsies, and others described as “non-Aryans”.

    According to Clarence Lusane, Eugen Fischer’s medical experiments can be seen as a testing ground for later medical procedures used during the Nazi Holocaust.

    Mahmood Mamdani argues that the links between the Holocaust and the Herero genocide are beyond the execution of an annihilation policy and the establishment of concentration camps and that there are ideological similarities in the conduct of both genocides

    Read More
    • Replies: @iffen
    I think that Thor is trolling us, even so, I see a lot of daylight between him and GR.

    Germans didn’t do anything in Africa that other nationalities didn’t do.

    It’s okay to be an African partisan, but you really should understand that deadly and mortal conflict between groups is who we (humans) are. Look at the centuries of conflict in Europe (still ongoing), look at the Hutus and Tutsis, look at the Nuer and Dinka, look at Bantu speakers against non-Bantu speakers, look anywhere in the world at any time in history including today.
    , @AP
    Germans were terrible in Namibia but were the best of the colonial powers in their other colonies. Their approach elsewhere was one of building up their Africans to become sort of self-sufficient African "Prussians." They invested massively in education and hospitals (Swahili word for school is taken form German). This investment paid off in the brilliant performance of outnumbered German-led African troops against the Western powers:

    https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/East_African_Campaign_(World_War_I)

    It is ridiculous that the Belgians (given their own terrible history) were given German-African lands as a consequence of a war allegedly fought for democracy and liberty.
    , @German_reader

    Well, he put a smiley there when suggesting I engage with that evil pomposity Thugfinnson.
     
    It was a joke, but you don't seem to have much of a sense of humour.
    Regarding German colonial atrocities, sure, some of them were among the more extreme colonialist crimes. The continuity thesis (colonial atrocities of imperial Germany as precursor and inspiration for Nazi policies) is controversial though, and the entire issue is highly politicized. In any case, I find your attempt at guilt-tripping tiresome. There's no way colonial atrocities of more than century ago could with reason be seen as legitimating African mass immigration to Europe today, unless you're thinking in categories of payback and vengeance.
    , @Thorfinnsson
    It almost sounds like you're afraid of me.

    NIGGER.
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  153. iffen says:
    @Bliss
    Well, he put a smiley there when suggesting I engage with that evil pomposity Thugfinnson.

    I know german-reader’s opinion on such matters is not much different from the Thug’s. Still, I take back the “German” in that post. That was wrong. Not all Germans fit the Nazi stereotype.

    However it is undeniable that the colonial germans in Africa were genocidal Nazis a generation before the real Nazis came to be:

    https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/Herero_and_Namaqua_genocide

    The Herero and Nama genocide was a campaign of racial extermination and collective punishment that the German Empire undertook in German South West Africa (now Namibia) against the Ovaherero and the Nama. It is considered the first genocide of the 20th century.

    In 2004, the German government recognized and apologized for the events, but ruled out financial compensation for the victims' descendants. In July 2015, the German government and the speaker of the Bundestag officially called the events a "genocide" and "part of a race war". However, it has refused to consider reparations.

    “I was present when the Herero were defeated in a battle in the vicinity of Waterberg. After the battle all men, women, and children who fell into German hands, wounded or otherwise, were mercilessly put to death. Then the Germans set off in pursuit of the rest, and all those found by the wayside and in the sandveld were shot down and bayoneted to death. The mass of the Herero men were unarmed and thus unable to offer resistance. They were just trying to get away with their cattle.”

    Trotha gave orders that captured Herero males were to be executed, while women and children were to be driven into the desert where their death from starvation and thirst was to be certain; Trotha argued that there was no need to make exceptions for Herero women and children, since these would "infect German troops with their diseases", the insurrection Trotha explained "is and remains the beginning of a racial struggle". Regardless, German soldiers regularly raped young Herero women before killing them or letting them die in the desert.

    Upon the arrival of new orders at the end of 1904, prisoners were herded into concentration camps, where they were given to private companies as slave labourers or exploited as human guinea pigs in medical experiments.....Prisoners were used for medical experiments and their illnesses or their recoveries from them were used for research.

    The Herero genocide has commanded the attention of historians who study complex issues of continuity between the Herero genocide and the Holocaust. It is argued that the Herero genocide set a precedent in Imperial Germany that would later be followed by Nazi Germany's establishment of death camps.

    According to Benjamin Madley, the German experience in South West Africa was a crucial precursor to Nazi colonialism and genocide. He argues that personal connections, literature, and public debates served as conduits for communicating colonialist and genocidal ideas and methods from the colony to Germany. Tony Barta, an honorary research associate at La Trobe University, argues that the Herero genocide was an inspiration for Hitler in his war against the Jews, Slavs, Gypsies, and others described as "non-Aryans".

    According to Clarence Lusane, Eugen Fischer's medical experiments can be seen as a testing ground for later medical procedures used during the Nazi Holocaust.

    Mahmood Mamdani argues that the links between the Holocaust and the Herero genocide are beyond the execution of an annihilation policy and the establishment of concentration camps and that there are ideological similarities in the conduct of both genocides

    I think that Thor is trolling us, even so, I see a lot of daylight between him and GR.

    Germans didn’t do anything in Africa that other nationalities didn’t do.

    It’s okay to be an African partisan, but you really should understand that deadly and mortal conflict between groups is who we (humans) are. Look at the centuries of conflict in Europe (still ongoing), look at the Hutus and Tutsis, look at the Nuer and Dinka, look at Bantu speakers against non-Bantu speakers, look anywhere in the world at any time in history including today.

    Read More
    • Replies: @Bliss

    I think that Thor is trolling us
     
    Come on, Thugfinnson is so obviously a psychopath. Clever and knowledgeable but with zero moral compass. Stereotypically evil.
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  154. @Bliss

    I would like that such policies be applied to the African continent.
     
    Sure you would.

    One can fit 3 Chinas in Africa and still have plenty of room to spare. Barring unforeseen events Africa could end the 21st century with a population of 2 billion or more. That would still be less than half as crowded as China is today.

    gracefully accepted to be pictured with some of the older chink ladies.
     
    Real classy aren’t you?

    The ever repeated myth that Africa could substain much higher population.

    First: Sahara

    Second: Sahel zone -> very arid, conditions are getting worse and that forces the nomads with their cattle to go further South and there are already communal violence between farmers and cattle-herders from Ghana to Kenya.

    Third: Central Africa (Congo etc.) -> Despite the jungle, the soil is actually low quality.

    Fourth: Institutional/Social memory -> The Tiger economies were already centralized countries with an emperor/king/sultan – privy council – all the way down to the local official/rural gentry. SSA had barely tribal federations. The Communist Party of China’s local secretary is just the modern-day imperial mandarin sent from Beijing.

    Food: Some countries (Southern Africa) are able to feed themselves or could be with modern/efficient methods (Simbabwe), but many are already beyond their carrying capacity (Niger, Egypt, Chad).

    Fifth: Corruption exist everywhere. But State-Capture is mainly are Arab/African/Central Asian affair.

    IMHO: You will see humanitarian catrastrophies in MENA, SSA that will make the famines/civil wars of 1980s look like a picnic. The Syrian/Yemeni civil warand the migration of Young Angry Men to Europe is only the beginning.

    Read More
    • Replies: @songbird
    Regarding your third, I think this could be addressed with industrial level farming - by using fertilizers. Example, Brazil's Savannah - which was for most of history considered a wasteland. I believe they only had to add lime or some other simple thing.

    IMO, there are two, somewhat, remote possibilities of a soft landing.

    One is Chinese-run agritrade. Basically, the Chinese run Africa's arable land in exchange for something profitable to them - maybe minerals or some of the produce.

    Second, which seems less likely due to HBD (but perhaps still possible), is that Africans get really serious about reform. I think technology could pick up a lot of slack in this department - there are clever ways to encourage honesty and functionality. The question for me is it possible for the institutional will to exist - at the very least you need good infrastructure. The right conditions (Malthusian timebomb) might provide a real impetus. But, then again, perhaps, it is simply not possible.

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  155. AP says:
    @Bliss
    Well, he put a smiley there when suggesting I engage with that evil pomposity Thugfinnson.

    I know german-reader’s opinion on such matters is not much different from the Thug’s. Still, I take back the “German” in that post. That was wrong. Not all Germans fit the Nazi stereotype.

    However it is undeniable that the colonial germans in Africa were genocidal Nazis a generation before the real Nazis came to be:

    https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/Herero_and_Namaqua_genocide

    The Herero and Nama genocide was a campaign of racial extermination and collective punishment that the German Empire undertook in German South West Africa (now Namibia) against the Ovaherero and the Nama. It is considered the first genocide of the 20th century.

    In 2004, the German government recognized and apologized for the events, but ruled out financial compensation for the victims' descendants. In July 2015, the German government and the speaker of the Bundestag officially called the events a "genocide" and "part of a race war". However, it has refused to consider reparations.

    “I was present when the Herero were defeated in a battle in the vicinity of Waterberg. After the battle all men, women, and children who fell into German hands, wounded or otherwise, were mercilessly put to death. Then the Germans set off in pursuit of the rest, and all those found by the wayside and in the sandveld were shot down and bayoneted to death. The mass of the Herero men were unarmed and thus unable to offer resistance. They were just trying to get away with their cattle.”

    Trotha gave orders that captured Herero males were to be executed, while women and children were to be driven into the desert where their death from starvation and thirst was to be certain; Trotha argued that there was no need to make exceptions for Herero women and children, since these would "infect German troops with their diseases", the insurrection Trotha explained "is and remains the beginning of a racial struggle". Regardless, German soldiers regularly raped young Herero women before killing them or letting them die in the desert.

    Upon the arrival of new orders at the end of 1904, prisoners were herded into concentration camps, where they were given to private companies as slave labourers or exploited as human guinea pigs in medical experiments.....Prisoners were used for medical experiments and their illnesses or their recoveries from them were used for research.

    The Herero genocide has commanded the attention of historians who study complex issues of continuity between the Herero genocide and the Holocaust. It is argued that the Herero genocide set a precedent in Imperial Germany that would later be followed by Nazi Germany's establishment of death camps.

    According to Benjamin Madley, the German experience in South West Africa was a crucial precursor to Nazi colonialism and genocide. He argues that personal connections, literature, and public debates served as conduits for communicating colonialist and genocidal ideas and methods from the colony to Germany. Tony Barta, an honorary research associate at La Trobe University, argues that the Herero genocide was an inspiration for Hitler in his war against the Jews, Slavs, Gypsies, and others described as "non-Aryans".

    According to Clarence Lusane, Eugen Fischer's medical experiments can be seen as a testing ground for later medical procedures used during the Nazi Holocaust.

    Mahmood Mamdani argues that the links between the Holocaust and the Herero genocide are beyond the execution of an annihilation policy and the establishment of concentration camps and that there are ideological similarities in the conduct of both genocides

    Germans were terrible in Namibia but were the best of the colonial powers in their other colonies. Their approach elsewhere was one of building up their Africans to become sort of self-sufficient African “Prussians.” They invested massively in education and hospitals (Swahili word for school is taken form German). This investment paid off in the brilliant performance of outnumbered German-led African troops against the Western powers:

    https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/East_African_Campaign_(World_War_I)

    It is ridiculous that the Belgians (given their own terrible history) were given German-African lands as a consequence of a war allegedly fought for democracy and liberty.

    Read More
    • Replies: @Thorfinnsson
    Not that I'm one to shed crocodile tears for Africans, but the case of Belgium is distorted. Worth noting that the Belgians stamped out Arab slaving in the Congo. If not for Leopold II and the Force Publique, all of Central Africa would've fallen under the control of the Sultanate of Zanzibar and become one giant Arab slave farm.

    After passing from Leopold II's personal ownership, the Belgian Congo became something of a model colony in Africa. Of course within weeks of independence it collapsed into chaos and civil war.

    This and other episodes of the end of European rule are documented in the excellent 1966 documentary Addio Africa, which should be required viewing in all public schools to disabuse people of the evil notions of negrophilia and racial equality:

    https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=7K5qVWG5CXU
    , @DFH

    It is ridiculous that the Belgians (given their own terrible history)
     
    I already posted a link debunking the Belgian Shoah in the thread
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  156. @AP
    Germans were terrible in Namibia but were the best of the colonial powers in their other colonies. Their approach elsewhere was one of building up their Africans to become sort of self-sufficient African "Prussians." They invested massively in education and hospitals (Swahili word for school is taken form German). This investment paid off in the brilliant performance of outnumbered German-led African troops against the Western powers:

    https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/East_African_Campaign_(World_War_I)

    It is ridiculous that the Belgians (given their own terrible history) were given German-African lands as a consequence of a war allegedly fought for democracy and liberty.

    Not that I’m one to shed crocodile tears for Africans, but the case of Belgium is distorted. Worth noting that the Belgians stamped out Arab slaving in the Congo. If not for Leopold II and the Force Publique, all of Central Africa would’ve fallen under the control of the Sultanate of Zanzibar and become one giant Arab slave farm.

    After passing from Leopold II’s personal ownership, the Belgian Congo became something of a model colony in Africa. Of course within weeks of independence it collapsed into chaos and civil war.

    This and other episodes of the end of European rule are documented in the excellent 1966 documentary Addio Africa, which should be required viewing in all public schools to disabuse people of the evil notions of negrophilia and racial equality:

    Read More
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  157. songbird says:
    @Another German Reader
    The ever repeated myth that Africa could substain much higher population.

    First: Sahara

    Second: Sahel zone -> very arid, conditions are getting worse and that forces the nomads with their cattle to go further South and there are already communal violence between farmers and cattle-herders from Ghana to Kenya.

    Third: Central Africa (Congo etc.) -> Despite the jungle, the soil is actually low quality.

    Fourth: Institutional/Social memory -> The Tiger economies were already centralized countries with an emperor/king/sultan - privy council - all the way down to the local official/rural gentry. SSA had barely tribal federations. The Communist Party of China's local secretary is just the modern-day imperial mandarin sent from Beijing.

    Food: Some countries (Southern Africa) are able to feed themselves or could be with modern/efficient methods (Simbabwe), but many are already beyond their carrying capacity (Niger, Egypt, Chad).

    Fifth: Corruption exist everywhere. But State-Capture is mainly are Arab/African/Central Asian affair.

    IMHO: You will see humanitarian catrastrophies in MENA, SSA that will make the famines/civil wars of 1980s look like a picnic. The Syrian/Yemeni civil warand the migration of Young Angry Men to Europe is only the beginning.

    Regarding your third, I think this could be addressed with industrial level farming – by using fertilizers. Example, Brazil’s Savannah – which was for most of history considered a wasteland. I believe they only had to add lime or some other simple thing.

    IMO, there are two, somewhat, remote possibilities of a soft landing.

    One is Chinese-run agritrade. Basically, the Chinese run Africa’s arable land in exchange for something profitable to them – maybe minerals or some of the produce.

    Second, which seems less likely due to HBD (but perhaps still possible), is that Africans get really serious about reform. I think technology could pick up a lot of slack in this department – there are clever ways to encourage honesty and functionality. The question for me is it possible for the institutional will to exist – at the very least you need good infrastructure. The right conditions (Malthusian timebomb) might provide a real impetus. But, then again, perhaps, it is simply not possible.

    Read More
    • Replies: @Another German Reader

    industrial level farming
     
    Sure in parts of Africa it's already the case, but the President (for Life) needs to stay away from the Mugabe virus.

    Chinese-run agritrade
     
    Already happening, but not limited to Chinese only.

    The problem is that modern industrial farming doesn't need that many labourers if you used cutting edge. The technology companies are already running autonoumous system, driver-less tractor and sensor-controlled sprinklers. Those prototypes will soon reach series-production.

    Yes you could feed 12 billions already, but what incentives do you give the investors and can unemployed people even afford the food.

    Africans get really serious about reform
     
    Some countries like Ethopia, Kenya, Ghana and Botswana are struggling but they are pulling ahead. They need a nitro-boost. They will defend their borders - ruthlessly. Mark my words!

    But the gorillas like Congo-Kinshasa, Nigeria and small flies like Niger might collapse under their own (demographic) weight.
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  158. @Bliss
    Well, he put a smiley there when suggesting I engage with that evil pomposity Thugfinnson.

    I know german-reader’s opinion on such matters is not much different from the Thug’s. Still, I take back the “German” in that post. That was wrong. Not all Germans fit the Nazi stereotype.

    However it is undeniable that the colonial germans in Africa were genocidal Nazis a generation before the real Nazis came to be:

    https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/Herero_and_Namaqua_genocide

    The Herero and Nama genocide was a campaign of racial extermination and collective punishment that the German Empire undertook in German South West Africa (now Namibia) against the Ovaherero and the Nama. It is considered the first genocide of the 20th century.

    In 2004, the German government recognized and apologized for the events, but ruled out financial compensation for the victims' descendants. In July 2015, the German government and the speaker of the Bundestag officially called the events a "genocide" and "part of a race war". However, it has refused to consider reparations.

    “I was present when the Herero were defeated in a battle in the vicinity of Waterberg. After the battle all men, women, and children who fell into German hands, wounded or otherwise, were mercilessly put to death. Then the Germans set off in pursuit of the rest, and all those found by the wayside and in the sandveld were shot down and bayoneted to death. The mass of the Herero men were unarmed and thus unable to offer resistance. They were just trying to get away with their cattle.”

    Trotha gave orders that captured Herero males were to be executed, while women and children were to be driven into the desert where their death from starvation and thirst was to be certain; Trotha argued that there was no need to make exceptions for Herero women and children, since these would "infect German troops with their diseases", the insurrection Trotha explained "is and remains the beginning of a racial struggle". Regardless, German soldiers regularly raped young Herero women before killing them or letting them die in the desert.

    Upon the arrival of new orders at the end of 1904, prisoners were herded into concentration camps, where they were given to private companies as slave labourers or exploited as human guinea pigs in medical experiments.....Prisoners were used for medical experiments and their illnesses or their recoveries from them were used for research.

    The Herero genocide has commanded the attention of historians who study complex issues of continuity between the Herero genocide and the Holocaust. It is argued that the Herero genocide set a precedent in Imperial Germany that would later be followed by Nazi Germany's establishment of death camps.

    According to Benjamin Madley, the German experience in South West Africa was a crucial precursor to Nazi colonialism and genocide. He argues that personal connections, literature, and public debates served as conduits for communicating colonialist and genocidal ideas and methods from the colony to Germany. Tony Barta, an honorary research associate at La Trobe University, argues that the Herero genocide was an inspiration for Hitler in his war against the Jews, Slavs, Gypsies, and others described as "non-Aryans".

    According to Clarence Lusane, Eugen Fischer's medical experiments can be seen as a testing ground for later medical procedures used during the Nazi Holocaust.

    Mahmood Mamdani argues that the links between the Holocaust and the Herero genocide are beyond the execution of an annihilation policy and the establishment of concentration camps and that there are ideological similarities in the conduct of both genocides

    Well, he put a smiley there when suggesting I engage with that evil pomposity Thugfinnson.

    It was a joke, but you don’t seem to have much of a sense of humour.
    Regarding German colonial atrocities, sure, some of them were among the more extreme colonialist crimes. The continuity thesis (colonial atrocities of imperial Germany as precursor and inspiration for Nazi policies) is controversial though, and the entire issue is highly politicized. In any case, I find your attempt at guilt-tripping tiresome. There’s no way colonial atrocities of more than century ago could with reason be seen as legitimating African mass immigration to Europe today, unless you’re thinking in categories of payback and vengeance.

    Read More
    • Replies: @songbird
    The normative level of tribal politics is genocide. If Europeans hadn't shown up when they did, I doubt there would as many tribes in Africa as there are now. But that could be a good thing or a bad thing depending on whether you are an African pan-nationalist.
    , @Bliss

    It was a joke, but you don’t seem to have much of a sense of humour.
     
    Actually I have a great sense of humor. I just can’t relate to the “sense of humor” of your ilk. I imagine you and the Thug are akin to the humorous guy in the second picture in the link below from Leopold’s Congo which I can’t post for obvious reasons:

    https://africanquarters.com/forgotten-european-atrocities-in-africa/
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  159. songbird says:
    @Dmitry
    Even secular population is also now above replacement rates there.

    But this is not a normal situation - it seems collective fear response to horror of being outnumbered by Arabs who hate you, as well as religious who want to impose their lifestyle on you.

    If you live in Middle East with millions of uncivilized Arabs both inside and outside your country (and also growing religious Jewish cults inside the country and which want to return it to medievalist superstition), then rational decision is - to apply for visa to escape and live in Europe, Australia, Canada, etc. But if you have to have family and future in such an environment, it would feel much more normal to aim for 5 kids than 1.


    -

    Considering the Arabs are also:
    https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=d5Cg6Qx1wSo

    Something like this may happen in Europe soon.

    The war of numbers already exists on the level of immigration – Muslims support it with the expectation that they will gain full control of Europe. There is a real anger – a glint in the eye – when it is opposed.

    Read More
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  160. @Bliss

    the amount of human capital that is present in a population of 1.4 billion with a an IQ of above 100 is more then enough for total hegemony if used properly.
     
    The Age of AI (artificial intelligence) is coming soon. A few points advantage in human IQ won’t make a difference then.

    The Age of AI (artificial intelligence) is coming soon. A few points advantage in human IQ won’t make a difference then.

    There are some interesting advances on machine learning, but the central problem of advanced general intelligence seems as elusive now as it was twenty years ago. All other examples of machine learning at this moment are largely domain specific within a limited problem set, the “forklifts winning at weightlifting” issue and are much less efficient than organic systems. At this moment, genetic engineering for intelligence actually seems more likely.

    We can’t seem to fully replicate a flatworm behavior, for example, despite complete neural emulation; but we can increase BDNF hormone expression artificially in the brain(and it has positive effect on learning), there’s an identified gene that increases BDNF as well. Either direct increase of the hormone, or editing the gene into hosts will seem to have positive effects.

    There are likely probable ways to combine the two, though, and mechanically aid cognitive performance(transcranial direct stimulation, mechanical telepathy, etc). The “wetware” component will probably remain a part of our generation at least.

    Read More
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  161. songbird says:
    @German_reader

    Well, he put a smiley there when suggesting I engage with that evil pomposity Thugfinnson.
     
    It was a joke, but you don't seem to have much of a sense of humour.
    Regarding German colonial atrocities, sure, some of them were among the more extreme colonialist crimes. The continuity thesis (colonial atrocities of imperial Germany as precursor and inspiration for Nazi policies) is controversial though, and the entire issue is highly politicized. In any case, I find your attempt at guilt-tripping tiresome. There's no way colonial atrocities of more than century ago could with reason be seen as legitimating African mass immigration to Europe today, unless you're thinking in categories of payback and vengeance.

    The normative level of tribal politics is genocide. If Europeans hadn’t shown up when they did, I doubt there would as many tribes in Africa as there are now. But that could be a good thing or a bad thing depending on whether you are an African pan-nationalist.

    Read More
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  162. @songbird
    Regarding your third, I think this could be addressed with industrial level farming - by using fertilizers. Example, Brazil's Savannah - which was for most of history considered a wasteland. I believe they only had to add lime or some other simple thing.

    IMO, there are two, somewhat, remote possibilities of a soft landing.

    One is Chinese-run agritrade. Basically, the Chinese run Africa's arable land in exchange for something profitable to them - maybe minerals or some of the produce.

    Second, which seems less likely due to HBD (but perhaps still possible), is that Africans get really serious about reform. I think technology could pick up a lot of slack in this department - there are clever ways to encourage honesty and functionality. The question for me is it possible for the institutional will to exist - at the very least you need good infrastructure. The right conditions (Malthusian timebomb) might provide a real impetus. But, then again, perhaps, it is simply not possible.

    industrial level farming

    Sure in parts of Africa it’s already the case, but the President (for Life) needs to stay away from the Mugabe virus.

    Chinese-run agritrade

    Already happening, but not limited to Chinese only.

    The problem is that modern industrial farming doesn’t need that many labourers if you used cutting edge. The technology companies are already running autonoumous system, driver-less tractor and sensor-controlled sprinklers. Those prototypes will soon reach series-production.

    Yes you could feed 12 billions already, but what incentives do you give the investors and can unemployed people even afford the food.

    Africans get really serious about reform

    Some countries like Ethopia, Kenya, Ghana and Botswana are struggling but they are pulling ahead. They need a nitro-boost. They will defend their borders – ruthlessly. Mark my words!

    But the gorillas like Congo-Kinshasa, Nigeria and small flies like Niger might collapse under their own (demographic) weight.

    Read More
    • Replies: @songbird
    The reason I mention China specifically is that I believe they alone have a possibility of domestic political support for maintaining their investment and preventing confiscations. Just the possibility - not the certainty.

    You bring up a good objection: unemployment. I've mentioned it before, but blacks move into the Maghreb and into Yemen, and from Haiti into the DR, because they have greater opportunity for work in those places than their own. There may be some commodity that doesn't require consumer-level exchange, but can be a medium of trade between governments, like fissionables. Of course, stability would remain a serious problem and handicap to such trade.

    I don't think there is anyone who believes that a city like Lagos can get to 88 million. What will happen to Nigeria is a very interesting question. It will be easy to shut off travel into North Africa, IMO, with the right resolve. The geography favors isolating sub-Sahara.

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  163. neutral says:
    @Bliss

    There’s no equivalence to what’s going on in Europe with the entire asylum, open borders and “antiracism” business
     
    You are right, in an ass-backwards way. There is no equivalence between Africans immigrating to Europe and Europeans doing this to Africa:

    https://africanquarters.com/forgotten-european-atrocities-in-africa/

    https://africanquarters.com/wp-content/uploads/2017/01/herero.jpg

    There is no equivalence between Africans immigrating to Europe and Europeans doing this to Africa

    True, the mass immigration into Europe by Africans is profoundly worse and more destructive than anything that happened in Africa in the past. Nobody really cares about your stupid concern trolling as it is clear that the demographic destruction that Europe is facing did not happen in Africa. There are still Africans in Africa, in fact their numbers exploded because of colonialism, on the other hand whites are facing extinction.

    Read More
    • Replies: @Talha

    whites are facing extinction
     
    Indeed. White babies are quite adorable - why don't they want more of them?

    Peace.
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  164. DFH says:
    @AP
    Germans were terrible in Namibia but were the best of the colonial powers in their other colonies. Their approach elsewhere was one of building up their Africans to become sort of self-sufficient African "Prussians." They invested massively in education and hospitals (Swahili word for school is taken form German). This investment paid off in the brilliant performance of outnumbered German-led African troops against the Western powers:

    https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/East_African_Campaign_(World_War_I)

    It is ridiculous that the Belgians (given their own terrible history) were given German-African lands as a consequence of a war allegedly fought for democracy and liberty.

    It is ridiculous that the Belgians (given their own terrible history)

    I already posted a link debunking the Belgian Shoah in the thread

    Read More
    • Replies: @German_reader
    I recently read David van Reybrouck's Congo. The epic history of a people. Van Reybrouck comes across as kind of left-wing and in general has a lot of sympathy for the Congolese, but even he is extremely sceptical of the more extreme claims about the Congo Free State (genocide, 10 million dead etc.).
    In any case, there was a large humanitarian campaign, and at least the worst abuses were ended when Belgium took over direct rule in 1908.
    , @iffen
    Are you an authorized user of debunking oil?
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  165. @DFH

    It is ridiculous that the Belgians (given their own terrible history)
     
    I already posted a link debunking the Belgian Shoah in the thread

    I recently read David van Reybrouck’s Congo. The epic history of a people. Van Reybrouck comes across as kind of left-wing and in general has a lot of sympathy for the Congolese, but even he is extremely sceptical of the more extreme claims about the Congo Free State (genocide, 10 million dead etc.).
    In any case, there was a large humanitarian campaign, and at least the worst abuses were ended when Belgium took over direct rule in 1908.

    Read More
    • Replies: @songbird
    In Michael Crichton's Congo, I seem to remember there were evil gorilla-chimp-human hybrids.
    , @Anon
    I’ve always thought that the Congo atrocities were just British propaganda so the British would be justified in invading Congo to save the people from evil Leopold

    The British are masters of propaganda.
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  166. songbird says:
    @Another German Reader

    industrial level farming
     
    Sure in parts of Africa it's already the case, but the President (for Life) needs to stay away from the Mugabe virus.

    Chinese-run agritrade
     
    Already happening, but not limited to Chinese only.

    The problem is that modern industrial farming doesn't need that many labourers if you used cutting edge. The technology companies are already running autonoumous system, driver-less tractor and sensor-controlled sprinklers. Those prototypes will soon reach series-production.

    Yes you could feed 12 billions already, but what incentives do you give the investors and can unemployed people even afford the food.

    Africans get really serious about reform
     
    Some countries like Ethopia, Kenya, Ghana and Botswana are struggling but they are pulling ahead. They need a nitro-boost. They will defend their borders - ruthlessly. Mark my words!

    But the gorillas like Congo-Kinshasa, Nigeria and small flies like Niger might collapse under their own (demographic) weight.

    The reason I mention China specifically is that I believe they alone have a possibility of domestic political support for maintaining their investment and preventing confiscations. Just the possibility – not the certainty.

    You bring up a good objection: unemployment. I’ve mentioned it before, but blacks move into the Maghreb and into Yemen, and from Haiti into the DR, because they have greater opportunity for work in those places than their own. There may be some commodity that doesn’t require consumer-level exchange, but can be a medium of trade between governments, like fissionables. Of course, stability would remain a serious problem and handicap to such trade.

    I don’t think there is anyone who believes that a city like Lagos can get to 88 million. What will happen to Nigeria is a very interesting question. It will be easy to shut off travel into North Africa, IMO, with the right resolve. The geography favors isolating sub-Sahara.

    Read More
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  167. In my opinion, it comes down to 2 or three things..

    1. women, as sex/gender, are more members of a kind than they are individuals. The Talmud says something like (quoting from memory): “Women are a separate people”; Michel de Montaigne, a man perhaps completely unacceptable to modern feminist mind said that women were not fully human. He equated them with nature & nature’s processes and thought they were lacking in “higher” mental pursuits & non-egoic strivings. Although Montaigne was one of the fathers of modern Western mind- I think he is, along with Shakespeare, the first progenitor of intellectual/spiritual modernity- he remains safely in the tradition of male reductionism re females. If only Indians, Muslims, Chinese, …could have read him 500 years ago, they would have agreed. Women are mostly determined by their “biology” which does not leave much space for individualism & non-biological creativity.

    2. this leads me to a rather tenuous association: when I compare Hebrew Bible/Old Testament Pentateuch’s rendition of females (Leah, Rebecca, Rachel, Sarah, ..) they all seem like sex-procreation machines without individuality; their entire “meaning of life” is to get knocked up & to give birth to as many children as possible.

    On the other hand, ancient Greeks- the best of their writers- treat women as individuals, especially Sophocles & Euripides. But, even a man’s man like Aeschylus give us unforgettable Clytemnestra in “Oresteia”. Of course, these women were seen from male perspective- but they are ravishing. Is it something in Western mind, that all whites/Europeans have inherited, that pushes for individualism, however intermittently? That gives women potentiality for individualization, which they themselves would not have the power nor will to obtain or fight for? Is individualism “genetically” Western thing, while others assimilate only aspects of it, only in portions they can digest?

    So- generally, women go with the flow.

    It would explain why it is natural that women, wherever they can break free from idiotic routine of housewife life, prefer to have not many children, mostly 1 or 2. This is the same for educated women in France, Italy, Russia, China, Japan, Sweden, Canada,..

    Only Israel seems to be different (unlike US Jews). Why? There, not only religious female nuts, but even Harvard PhD psychologists, pediatricians,… may have 4 or 5 children. How so?

    I guess this is because:

    a) they go with the flow, and in this case it is nationalism & demographic steeplechase with Muslim Arab natives

    b) perhaps even secular Israeli Jewish culture is, basically, not fully Western? Maybe both men & women remain refurbished Mid-Easterners?

    Be as it may, only Western men, from Paris to Petrograd, from London to Ottawa and Buenos Aires, not only let, but actively push individuality on their females. So, low birth rate in the West (Sweden, Poland, ..) is a conflation of male individualism & female wish for an easier, more gratifying life without fussing around too many children who’re constantly screaming & nagging. In other corners of earth (Japan, China, modernized Iran,..) it is just a second component.

    While, the natural condition among Africans, most Mestizos & Arab browns seems to remain female procreational animalism as described in the Pentateuch.

    In both cases, women go with the flow, either having post-modern pseudo-individual fun & not having babies or pumping out babies because that’s their natural position in the chain of life.

    Read More
    • Replies: @AaronB
    HiI am pretty sure that Montaigne did not say that, or that you're distorting it somehow.

    Do you have a quote for that? I'd be happy to be proven wrong.

    Montaigne is often misrepresented as the father of modernity, even though he was a Taoist.

    Montaigne is a pleasure reserved for the few. The modern mind is out of sympathy with him.

    Anyways, quote?

    Also, since the centerpiece of Montaignes philosophy was to go with the flow and be natural, then he was subtly complimenting women, if he said that.

    , @Talha

    Michel de Montaigne, a man perhaps completely unacceptable to modern feminist mind said that women were not fully human
     
    If he said this, then his father did not beat him enough for disrespecting his mother.

    Those societies that refuse to recognize the immense innate spiritual capacity in women and those that do not give them a proper outlet for such will eat themselves alive for underestimating what the word "mother" means.

    https://www.brainyquote.com/photos_tr/en/w/williammakepeacethackeray/137822/williammakepeacethackeray1-2x.jpg

    Peace.
    , @Dmitry

    Israel seems to be different (unlike US Jews). Why? There, not only religious female nuts, but even Harvard PhD psychologists, pediatricians,… may have 4 or 5 children. How so?
     
    It's an interesting topic.

    At the same time, I think answer to mystery, is very understandable and quite simple explanation - when see the desire of different communities to not be outnumbered, and talking openly about each other as a "demographic threat".

    It's not only Arabs threatening to secular public, but also religious Jews (even though both these population's now have falling birthrates in Israel - from very high starting point).

    Arab population inside Israel was historically one of the fastest growing in world. It grew from a small number in 1948, to large number of today (even despite millions of Jews immigrating to Israel, Muslim share of population increased).

    Even a million people immigrating from the Soviet Union in the 1990s, only slows a trend of increasing Islamization of demographics in Israel.

    https://i.imgur.com/GA6au0h.png

    -



    A civilized person in Israel, is under dual pressure of living directly mixed together with (1) Palestinian Arabs/Muslims (one of the world's most threatening/uncivilized populations which would destroy a normal lifestyle in a developed country, and which is now over 20% of the internal population of the country). At the same time, they are also mixed with (2) growing populations of extremist Jewish religious cults (who want to return the country to medieval superstition- about 10% of the population of country belonging to most extreme and primitive form of Jewish cult, Haredi Judaism).

    Place where everyone is living right next to each other, in a geographically small area, so all demographic threats are made visible in a way which is not in large countries (where people are much more geographically separate, and demographic threats are only abstract).

    Modern people, who don't want to commit to future there also leave as soon as they can to live in America/Canada/Australia/Russia, etc. So not to emigrate for secular couples in Israel, is already a political decision.

    -

    A paradox trend is birthrates rise, while age of first marriage is high and rising (they have high overall number, even though religious population and Arab population are usually marrying at 21 or below there).

    https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_countries_by_age_at_first_marriage

    Age of first marriage in Israel is significantly higher (few years) than Russia, even though birthrates more than twice higher than Russia. (Other variables are equal, - e.g. abortion, is also available to everyone and funded freely by Israeli healthcare, no different to in Russia)

    -

    Overall age of mother at birth also increasing at same time as rising fertility rates overall, and the average age at birth is over 30.

    The proportion of babies born to women 30 years or older rose from 40.2% in 2000 to 51.5% in 2016.
    ...

    Average age of women giving birth for the first time, meanwhile, was 27.6, with the average age of a second child two years later and the age for a third child two years after that.

    A relatively sharp rise in the mother's average age at birth has also been recorded starting in 2000, rising by a year and five months and reaching 30.4 in 2016. Most of the increase can be attributed to women putting off their first birth well into their late twenties, from 25.7 in 2000 to 27.6 in 2016, as well as to the tendency to give birth after age 30.

     

    -

    Finally, birthrates fell to around 2, among the Druze and Arab Christians:

    Since 2006, however, Israel’s total fertility rate has been on the rise, and now tops Saudi Arabia...

    Israel’s fertility rate is now at its highest level since 1983, when it hit 3.20.


    The increase in Israel’s Total Fertility Rate comes despite declines among most non-Jewish demographic groups in Israel.

    Among Israeli Jewish women, the TFR reached 3.16, surpassing for the first time in Israel’s history the Arab fertility rate, which fell to 3.11.

    Broken down by religion, however, the Muslim TFR remains slightly higher than the Jewish fertility rate at 3.29 – but has declined significantly in recent years. In 1980, the Muslim TFR in Israel was 6.00, but fell to just over 4 by 2005.

    The biggest drop, however, has been among members of Israel’s Druze community, which had a TFR of 6.10 in 1980, compared to 2.15 in 2016.

     

    Coverage is only discussing trends though. Druze fertility is now the same as the secular fertility rate in Israel (secular fertility rate in Israel, although now above replacement, is still one of the lowest).
    , @anonymous coward
    Your post is full of stupid.

    Two important points:

    a) There is no such thing as a 'housewife life'. The 'housewife' is a perverted post-WWII American invention, enabled by the immense resource surplus of the time. Women have worked as much as men in every human culture in history.

    b) The phrase 'pumping out babies' is moronic. Having kids is really hard work. Even getting pregnant is really hard work. (Even if enjoyable.)

    The main reason why birthrates plummet among the modern man is because being a modern man (or woman) is exhausting. Just keeping yourself alive up and to a decent living standard is too hard. Most people don't have the mental fortitude to add on top of that the hard work of childbirth.
    , @Rosie

    Only Israel seems to be different (unlike US Jews). Why? There, not only religious female nuts, but even Harvard PhD psychologists, pediatricians,… may have 4 or 5 children. How so?
     
    It's amazing what ethnic pride will do, isn't it?
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  168. Talha says:
    @Dmitry
    Even secular population is also now above replacement rates there.

    But this is not a normal situation - it seems collective fear response to horror of being outnumbered by Arabs who hate you, as well as religious who want to impose their lifestyle on you.

    If you live in Middle East with millions of uncivilized Arabs both inside and outside your country (and also growing religious Jewish cults inside the country and which want to return it to medievalist superstition), then rational decision is - to apply for visa to escape and live in Europe, Australia, Canada, etc. But if you have to have family and future in such an environment, it would feel much more normal to aim for 5 kids than 1.


    -

    Considering the Arabs are also:
    https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=d5Cg6Qx1wSo

    If you live in Middle East with millions of uncivilized Arabs both inside and outside your country

    Need to have a serious sit down with your real estate agent…

    Peace.

    Read More
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  169. AaronB says:
    @Bardon Kaldian
    In my opinion, it comes down to 2 or three things..

    1. women, as sex/gender, are more members of a kind than they are individuals. The Talmud says something like (quoting from memory): "Women are a separate people"; Michel de Montaigne, a man perhaps completely unacceptable to modern feminist mind said that women were not fully human. He equated them with nature & nature's processes and thought they were lacking in "higher" mental pursuits & non-egoic strivings. Although Montaigne was one of the fathers of modern Western mind- I think he is, along with Shakespeare, the first progenitor of intellectual/spiritual modernity- he remains safely in the tradition of male reductionism re females. If only Indians, Muslims, Chinese, ...could have read him 500 years ago, they would have agreed. Women are mostly determined by their "biology" which does not leave much space for individualism & non-biological creativity.

    2. this leads me to a rather tenuous association: when I compare Hebrew Bible/Old Testament Pentateuch's rendition of females (Leah, Rebecca, Rachel, Sarah, ..) they all seem like sex-procreation machines without individuality; their entire "meaning of life" is to get knocked up & to give birth to as many children as possible.

    On the other hand, ancient Greeks- the best of their writers- treat women as individuals, especially Sophocles & Euripides. But, even a man's man like Aeschylus give us unforgettable Clytemnestra in "Oresteia". Of course, these women were seen from male perspective- but they are ravishing. Is it something in Western mind, that all whites/Europeans have inherited, that pushes for individualism, however intermittently? That gives women potentiality for individualization, which they themselves would not have the power nor will to obtain or fight for? Is individualism "genetically" Western thing, while others assimilate only aspects of it, only in portions they can digest?

    So- generally, women go with the flow.

    It would explain why it is natural that women, wherever they can break free from idiotic routine of housewife life, prefer to have not many children, mostly 1 or 2. This is the same for educated women in France, Italy, Russia, China, Japan, Sweden, Canada,..

    Only Israel seems to be different (unlike US Jews). Why? There, not only religious female nuts, but even Harvard PhD psychologists, pediatricians,... may have 4 or 5 children. How so?

    I guess this is because:

    a) they go with the flow, and in this case it is nationalism & demographic steeplechase with Muslim Arab natives

    b) perhaps even secular Israeli Jewish culture is, basically, not fully Western? Maybe both men & women remain refurbished Mid-Easterners?

    Be as it may, only Western men, from Paris to Petrograd, from London to Ottawa and Buenos Aires, not only let, but actively push individuality on their females. So, low birth rate in the West (Sweden, Poland, ..) is a conflation of male individualism & female wish for an easier, more gratifying life without fussing around too many children who're constantly screaming & nagging. In other corners of earth (Japan, China, modernized Iran,..) it is just a second component.

    While, the natural condition among Africans, most Mestizos & Arab browns seems to remain female procreational animalism as described in the Pentateuch.

    In both cases, women go with the flow, either having post-modern pseudo-individual fun & not having babies or pumping out babies because that's their natural position in the chain of life.

    HiI am pretty sure that Montaigne did not say that, or that you’re distorting it somehow.

    Do you have a quote for that? I’d be happy to be proven wrong.

    Montaigne is often misrepresented as the father of modernity, even though he was a Taoist.

    Montaigne is a pleasure reserved for the few. The modern mind is out of sympathy with him.

    Anyways, quote?

    Also, since the centerpiece of Montaignes philosophy was to go with the flow and be natural, then he was subtly complimenting women, if he said that.

    Read More
    • Replies: @Bardon Kaldian
    He changes his perspective, but the dominant tone remains of equating women with "nature" (although, to be fair, Montaigne remains ambivalent about "nature" & its position). I wouldn't say he said they were not human, biologically (after all, he was not lunatic). Just, it was a value judgment, and I think this is summed up pretty well here: https://archives.columbusstate.edu/gah/1989/119-130.pdf

    As for good or bad, going with the flow is dominant world-view that has been leaving the world in the dust. Simply- West is the best.
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  170. Talha says:
    @Bardon Kaldian
    In my opinion, it comes down to 2 or three things..

    1. women, as sex/gender, are more members of a kind than they are individuals. The Talmud says something like (quoting from memory): "Women are a separate people"; Michel de Montaigne, a man perhaps completely unacceptable to modern feminist mind said that women were not fully human. He equated them with nature & nature's processes and thought they were lacking in "higher" mental pursuits & non-egoic strivings. Although Montaigne was one of the fathers of modern Western mind- I think he is, along with Shakespeare, the first progenitor of intellectual/spiritual modernity- he remains safely in the tradition of male reductionism re females. If only Indians, Muslims, Chinese, ...could have read him 500 years ago, they would have agreed. Women are mostly determined by their "biology" which does not leave much space for individualism & non-biological creativity.

    2. this leads me to a rather tenuous association: when I compare Hebrew Bible/Old Testament Pentateuch's rendition of females (Leah, Rebecca, Rachel, Sarah, ..) they all seem like sex-procreation machines without individuality; their entire "meaning of life" is to get knocked up & to give birth to as many children as possible.

    On the other hand, ancient Greeks- the best of their writers- treat women as individuals, especially Sophocles & Euripides. But, even a man's man like Aeschylus give us unforgettable Clytemnestra in "Oresteia". Of course, these women were seen from male perspective- but they are ravishing. Is it something in Western mind, that all whites/Europeans have inherited, that pushes for individualism, however intermittently? That gives women potentiality for individualization, which they themselves would not have the power nor will to obtain or fight for? Is individualism "genetically" Western thing, while others assimilate only aspects of it, only in portions they can digest?

    So- generally, women go with the flow.

    It would explain why it is natural that women, wherever they can break free from idiotic routine of housewife life, prefer to have not many children, mostly 1 or 2. This is the same for educated women in France, Italy, Russia, China, Japan, Sweden, Canada,..

    Only Israel seems to be different (unlike US Jews). Why? There, not only religious female nuts, but even Harvard PhD psychologists, pediatricians,... may have 4 or 5 children. How so?

    I guess this is because:

    a) they go with the flow, and in this case it is nationalism & demographic steeplechase with Muslim Arab natives

    b) perhaps even secular Israeli Jewish culture is, basically, not fully Western? Maybe both men & women remain refurbished Mid-Easterners?

    Be as it may, only Western men, from Paris to Petrograd, from London to Ottawa and Buenos Aires, not only let, but actively push individuality on their females. So, low birth rate in the West (Sweden, Poland, ..) is a conflation of male individualism & female wish for an easier, more gratifying life without fussing around too many children who're constantly screaming & nagging. In other corners of earth (Japan, China, modernized Iran,..) it is just a second component.

    While, the natural condition among Africans, most Mestizos & Arab browns seems to remain female procreational animalism as described in the Pentateuch.

    In both cases, women go with the flow, either having post-modern pseudo-individual fun & not having babies or pumping out babies because that's their natural position in the chain of life.

    Michel de Montaigne, a man perhaps completely unacceptable to modern feminist mind said that women were not fully human

    If he said this, then his father did not beat him enough for disrespecting his mother.

    Those societies that refuse to recognize the immense innate spiritual capacity in women and those that do not give them a proper outlet for such will eat themselves alive for underestimating what the word “mother” means.

    Peace.

    Read More
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  171. @Bill P
    Having a kid is not worth it for your typical urban Chinese. The hoops you have to jump through and bribes you have to pay to get them in a decent school are prohibitive, and what's more the cities are so polluted you practically have to invest in a fallout shelter type air filter to keep them healthy.

    Most of the women having kids in the big cities are probably waidi ren-- rural migrants at the bottom of the social hierarchy. Give Chinese an incentive to have kids and, just like Maoist times, you'll get a lot more peasant kids.

    Shanghai tfr dipped below replacement over 50 years ago, IIRC. There really is a big quality vs. quantity issue in China. Everybody knows it, but nobody is really doing anything about it. The Chinese I know who had more than one kid left the country before doing so. Most of the others I knew didn't even have kids last I checked, when they would have been pushing 40. These are big city, educated, high human capital Chinese.

    It's a disaster in the making, and given the Chinese tendency to double down when things deteriorate, I don't expect the trend to change anytime soon.

    The only hope China has of raising fertility in the near term lies in the countryside, but without some reversal or at least serious slowdown of the urbanization drive it's not going to happen. And anyway the government is trying really hard to decrease the number of peasants because of the aforementioned quality issue, so they'd never go for a scheme that boosted rural fertility.

    I think these stories about the demographic demise of China are vastly exaggerated.

    Last year they had around 18 million children – which is pretty much the same as the combined total of the EU and the entirety of the Americas. If repeated each year for the total of a Chinese life expectancy (let’s say around 75 years) then this produces a population of 1.2-1.3 billion, which is more or less the current population.

    Now of course the number of births will decrease as the age group pyramids get less bottom-heavy (unless TFR increases) but even if TFR stays the same the Chinese will still be pumping out 13-14 million babies in 50 years time. Considering Russia is happy with 1.8 million these days, rest assured the Chinese will still be having more than enough to maintain civilisational cohesion and strength in numbers. Of course, if nothing changes in 150 years then you can start worrying but that’s pointless.

    Read More
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  172. Talha says:
    @neutral

    There is no equivalence between Africans immigrating to Europe and Europeans doing this to Africa
     
    True, the mass immigration into Europe by Africans is profoundly worse and more destructive than anything that happened in Africa in the past. Nobody really cares about your stupid concern trolling as it is clear that the demographic destruction that Europe is facing did not happen in Africa. There are still Africans in Africa, in fact their numbers exploded because of colonialism, on the other hand whites are facing extinction.

    whites are facing extinction

    Indeed. White babies are quite adorable – why don’t they want more of them?

    Peace.

    Read More
    • Replies: @neutral
    Having them is necessary but not sufficient, with mass immigration there is a near endless source of non whites entering. Then there is the bigger problem of miscegenation (heavily propagandized by Hollywood and other jew dominated media), what is the point of having 10 white children if they end up producing brown offspring themselves? The solution is mass deportations and probably much more drastic measures than that.

    And I don't want peace, peace is probably the worst thing for white people right now.

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  173. neutral says:
    @Talha

    whites are facing extinction
     
    Indeed. White babies are quite adorable - why don't they want more of them?

    Peace.

    Having them is necessary but not sufficient, with mass immigration there is a near endless source of non whites entering. Then there is the bigger problem of miscegenation (heavily propagandized by Hollywood and other jew dominated media), what is the point of having 10 white children if they end up producing brown offspring themselves? The solution is mass deportations and probably much more drastic measures than that.

    And I don’t want peace, peace is probably the worst thing for white people right now.

    Read More
    • Replies: @Talha
    I don't support mass immigration so I'm fine with shutting that down.

    problem of miscegenation
     
    That goes back to my original question.

    The solution is mass deportations and probably much more drastic measures than that.
     
    Possibly - I honestly don't know what the solution is because I'm not really sure what the goal is...but that's something for the White populations of the West to come to some sort of understanding on.

    Peace.
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  174. Talha says:
    @neutral
    Having them is necessary but not sufficient, with mass immigration there is a near endless source of non whites entering. Then there is the bigger problem of miscegenation (heavily propagandized by Hollywood and other jew dominated media), what is the point of having 10 white children if they end up producing brown offspring themselves? The solution is mass deportations and probably much more drastic measures than that.

    And I don't want peace, peace is probably the worst thing for white people right now.

    I don’t support mass immigration so I’m fine with shutting that down.

    problem of miscegenation

    That goes back to my original question.

    The solution is mass deportations and probably much more drastic measures than that.

    Possibly – I honestly don’t know what the solution is because I’m not really sure what the goal is…but that’s something for the White populations of the West to come to some sort of understanding on.

    Peace.

    Read More
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  175. @AaronB
    HiI am pretty sure that Montaigne did not say that, or that you're distorting it somehow.

    Do you have a quote for that? I'd be happy to be proven wrong.

    Montaigne is often misrepresented as the father of modernity, even though he was a Taoist.

    Montaigne is a pleasure reserved for the few. The modern mind is out of sympathy with him.

    Anyways, quote?

    Also, since the centerpiece of Montaignes philosophy was to go with the flow and be natural, then he was subtly complimenting women, if he said that.

    He changes his perspective, but the dominant tone remains of equating women with “nature” (although, to be fair, Montaigne remains ambivalent about “nature” & its position). I wouldn’t say he said they were not human, biologically (after all, he was not lunatic). Just, it was a value judgment, and I think this is summed up pretty well here: https://archives.columbusstate.edu/gah/1989/119-130.pdf

    As for good or bad, going with the flow is dominant world-view that has been leaving the world in the dust. Simply- West is the best.

    Read More
    • Replies: @AaronB
    The West is best, other views of the world... none of that matters any more mow that I've been informed I can live in a HG reservation in Montana.

    As they say, you do you, Kaldian, you do you, and I will do me.
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  176. AaronB says:
    @Bardon Kaldian
    He changes his perspective, but the dominant tone remains of equating women with "nature" (although, to be fair, Montaigne remains ambivalent about "nature" & its position). I wouldn't say he said they were not human, biologically (after all, he was not lunatic). Just, it was a value judgment, and I think this is summed up pretty well here: https://archives.columbusstate.edu/gah/1989/119-130.pdf

    As for good or bad, going with the flow is dominant world-view that has been leaving the world in the dust. Simply- West is the best.

    The West is best, other views of the world… none of that matters any more mow that I’ve been informed I can live in a HG reservation in Montana.

    As they say, you do you, Kaldian, you do you, and I will do me.

    Read More
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  177. Dmitry says:
    @Bardon Kaldian
    In my opinion, it comes down to 2 or three things..

    1. women, as sex/gender, are more members of a kind than they are individuals. The Talmud says something like (quoting from memory): "Women are a separate people"; Michel de Montaigne, a man perhaps completely unacceptable to modern feminist mind said that women were not fully human. He equated them with nature & nature's processes and thought they were lacking in "higher" mental pursuits & non-egoic strivings. Although Montaigne was one of the fathers of modern Western mind- I think he is, along with Shakespeare, the first progenitor of intellectual/spiritual modernity- he remains safely in the tradition of male reductionism re females. If only Indians, Muslims, Chinese, ...could have read him 500 years ago, they would have agreed. Women are mostly determined by their "biology" which does not leave much space for individualism & non-biological creativity.

    2. this leads me to a rather tenuous association: when I compare Hebrew Bible/Old Testament Pentateuch's rendition of females (Leah, Rebecca, Rachel, Sarah, ..) they all seem like sex-procreation machines without individuality; their entire "meaning of life" is to get knocked up & to give birth to as many children as possible.

    On the other hand, ancient Greeks- the best of their writers- treat women as individuals, especially Sophocles & Euripides. But, even a man's man like Aeschylus give us unforgettable Clytemnestra in "Oresteia". Of course, these women were seen from male perspective- but they are ravishing. Is it something in Western mind, that all whites/Europeans have inherited, that pushes for individualism, however intermittently? That gives women potentiality for individualization, which they themselves would not have the power nor will to obtain or fight for? Is individualism "genetically" Western thing, while others assimilate only aspects of it, only in portions they can digest?

    So- generally, women go with the flow.

    It would explain why it is natural that women, wherever they can break free from idiotic routine of housewife life, prefer to have not many children, mostly 1 or 2. This is the same for educated women in France, Italy, Russia, China, Japan, Sweden, Canada,..

    Only Israel seems to be different (unlike US Jews). Why? There, not only religious female nuts, but even Harvard PhD psychologists, pediatricians,... may have 4 or 5 children. How so?

    I guess this is because:

    a) they go with the flow, and in this case it is nationalism & demographic steeplechase with Muslim Arab natives

    b) perhaps even secular Israeli Jewish culture is, basically, not fully Western? Maybe both men & women remain refurbished Mid-Easterners?

    Be as it may, only Western men, from Paris to Petrograd, from London to Ottawa and Buenos Aires, not only let, but actively push individuality on their females. So, low birth rate in the West (Sweden, Poland, ..) is a conflation of male individualism & female wish for an easier, more gratifying life without fussing around too many children who're constantly screaming & nagging. In other corners of earth (Japan, China, modernized Iran,..) it is just a second component.

    While, the natural condition among Africans, most Mestizos & Arab browns seems to remain female procreational animalism as described in the Pentateuch.

    In both cases, women go with the flow, either having post-modern pseudo-individual fun & not having babies or pumping out babies because that's their natural position in the chain of life.

    Israel seems to be different (unlike US Jews). Why? There, not only religious female nuts, but even Harvard PhD psychologists, pediatricians,… may have 4 or 5 children. How so?

    It’s an interesting topic.

    At the same time, I think answer to mystery, is very understandable and quite simple explanation – when see the desire of different communities to not be outnumbered, and talking openly about each other as a “demographic threat”.

    It’s not only Arabs threatening to secular public, but also religious Jews (even though both these population’s now have falling birthrates in Israel – from very high starting point).

    Arab population inside Israel was historically one of the fastest growing in world. It grew from a small number in 1948, to large number of today (even despite millions of Jews immigrating to Israel, Muslim share of population increased).

    Even a million people immigrating from the Soviet Union in the 1990s, only slows a trend of increasing Islamization of demographics in Israel.

    -

    A civilized person in Israel, is under dual pressure of living directly mixed together with (1) Palestinian Arabs/Muslims (one of the world’s most threatening/uncivilized populations which would destroy a normal lifestyle in a developed country, and which is now over 20% of the internal population of the country). At the same time, they are also mixed with (2) growing populations of extremist Jewish religious cults (who want to return the country to medieval superstition- about 10% of the population of country belonging to most extreme and primitive form of Jewish cult, Haredi Judaism).

    Place where everyone is living right next to each other, in a geographically small area, so all demographic threats are made visible in a way which is not in large countries (where people are much more geographically separate, and demographic threats are only abstract).

    Modern people, who don’t want to commit to future there also leave as soon as they can to live in America/Canada/Australia/Russia, etc. So not to emigrate for secular couples in Israel, is already a political decision.

    -

    A paradox trend is birthrates rise, while age of first marriage is high and rising (they have high overall number, even though religious population and Arab population are usually marrying at 21 or below there).

    https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_countries_by_age_at_first_marriage

    Age of first marriage in Israel is significantly higher (few years) than Russia, even though birthrates more than twice higher than Russia. (Other variables are equal, – e.g. abortion, is also available to everyone and funded freely by Israeli healthcare, no different to in Russia)

    -

    Overall age of mother at birth also increasing at same time as rising fertility rates overall, and the average age at birth is over 30.

    The proportion of babies born to women 30 years or older rose from 40.2% in 2000 to 51.5% in 2016.

    Average age of women giving birth for the first time, meanwhile, was 27.6, with the average age of a second child two years later and the age for a third child two years after that.

    A relatively sharp rise in the mother’s average age at birth has also been recorded starting in 2000, rising by a year and five months and reaching 30.4 in 2016. Most of the increase can be attributed to women putting off their first birth well into their late twenties, from 25.7 in 2000 to 27.6 in 2016, as well as to the tendency to give birth after age 30.

    -

    Finally, birthrates fell to around 2, among the Druze and Arab Christians:

    Since 2006, however, Israel’s total fertility rate has been on the rise, and now tops Saudi Arabia…

    Israel’s fertility rate is now at its highest level since 1983, when it hit 3.20.

    The increase in Israel’s Total Fertility Rate comes despite declines among most non-Jewish demographic groups in Israel.

    Among Israeli Jewish women, the TFR reached 3.16, surpassing for the first time in Israel’s history the Arab fertility rate, which fell to 3.11.

    Broken down by religion, however, the Muslim TFR remains slightly higher than the Jewish fertility rate at 3.29 – but has declined significantly in recent years. In 1980, the Muslim TFR in Israel was 6.00, but fell to just over 4 by 2005.

    The biggest drop, however, has been among members of Israel’s Druze community, which had a TFR of 6.10 in 1980, compared to 2.15 in 2016.

    Coverage is only discussing trends though. Druze fertility is now the same as the secular fertility rate in Israel (secular fertility rate in Israel, although now above replacement, is still one of the lowest).

    Read More
    • Replies: @Bardon Kaldian
    Too complicated to give a full answer. Personally, I think that Palestinian Arabs will lose, sooner or later. Their demographic "strategy" (to call it that) will turn out to be disaster to them- they're not fighting lefty liberal Europeans.

    https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=MwgJIyTunCk

    Most Israelis here are, in my opinion, too cautious.... If it comes to the pinch, Arabs will be booted.

    , @Bardon Kaldian
    By the way- not worthy of reading the whole stuff- but as an illustration (I've come across this):
    https://blogs.timesofisrael.com/celebrating-70-extraordinary-women-of-israel/

    Celebrating 70 extraordinary women of Israel
    ......................

    5. Anita Weisfeld
    ........
    Together, they have three grown children and nine grandchildren.
     

    7. Miriam Ballin
    .........
    Miriam spent five years in Australia before moving to Israel with her husband and 5 children.
     

    13. Shari Mendes
    ...........
    Shari, her husband David and their four children made aliyah in 2003 from New Jersey
     

    15. Dr. Yael Maizels
    ............
    Proud mother of five, Yael holds a BA in Biology and Jewish History from UPenn and completed her PhD at Hebrew University in Developmental and Cancer Biology.
     
    etc. etc.
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  178. @Dmitry
    So in Japan, also the less "intelligent" (by IQ test scores) areas have higher fertility rates than the highest scoring ones (in test scores)

    The highest scoring region (Akita prefecture - with an average "IQ score" of 108), has one of the lower fertility rates (between 1.31-1.4).
    https://i.imgur.com/YD3FJ7F.jpg

    https://i.imgur.com/aDvv042.jpg

    Akita is this one on the map:
    http://www.washokulovers.com/wp-content/uploads/2017/10/akita_prefecture_header.jpg

    Okinawa is a clean and pleasant place where a record number of people live past 100. Even on backwoods roads, not a piece of garbage lies around; so safe that teenage girls stand by the roadside alone selling ice cream.

    OKINAWA BIC ICE GIRLS

    Their low-scoring people are not like others’ low-scoring people, even if average score (a measure not unlike average temperature in the hospital) really counts.

    Read More
    • Replies: @Daniel Chieh
    Not safe for some people.

    https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/1945_Katsuyama_killing_incident
    , @Dmitry
    Well according to this study, Okinawa still has the same "IQ score" average as Denmark.

    Japan is just superelevated. So the lowest scoring region in Japan, receives the same scores as Denmark or the US average.

    While a couple of places in Japan (like Akita prefecture ) are superelevated with an average IQ of 108 (which is matched in the world only by Singapore or Hong Kong).


    -
    As for whether "IQ scores" measure anything important? I'm sceptical about importance of "IQ tests" (without knowing much about the topic), but it's still somehow interesting.

    , @iffen
    so safe that teenage girls stand by the roadside alone selling ice cream.

    Just not near the American military bases.
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  179. Dmitry says:
    @AP
    Ukraine has about 700 T-64BM and BV's, and about 300 T-72s, according to Russian wiki.:

    Number of tanks which are active and operational in Ukraine, will be far lower than this.

    It will be at best a similar story to numbers of T-80s in Russia. There are over 3000 in storage now. Yet actual number of T-80 which are operating today is only several hundreds.

    -

    Baltic countries have 0 tanks, but they are part of NATO.

    In Poland, American force deployed with over 200 tanks.

    However, in any way you can count, Russia will still have more (even high quality) tanks in relevant parts of Europe than NATO + Ukraine, even before accounting for any production of T-14.

    -

    Any actual war between neighbours would be a stupid disaster, but even if purpose is to prepare for war, producing 2,300 T-14 seems “overkill”.

    And with deterrence impact, probably Law of Diminishing Returns in producing suddenly thousands of T-14, as combined NATO + Ukraine are already outnumbered in terms of tanks in the region.

    Read More
    • Replies: @AP

    Number of tanks which are active and operational in Ukraine, will be far lower than this.
     
    No, this is the number of active ones. Ukraine has a few thousand in storage, needing repair. Ukraine has been upgrading and bringing out a few hundred tanks per year.

    Any actual war between neighbours would be a stupid disaster, but even if purpose is to prepare for war, producing 2,300 T-14 seems “overkill”.

     

    For Baltics, yes. For sweeping through Ukraine, no.
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  180. @Toronto Russian
    Okinawa is a clean and pleasant place where a record number of people live past 100. Even on backwoods roads, not a piece of garbage lies around; so safe that teenage girls stand by the roadside alone selling ice cream.
    https://www.flickr.com/photos/okinawa-soba/albums/72157634529695584
    Their low-scoring people are not like others' low-scoring people, even if average score (a measure not unlike average temperature in the hospital) really counts.
    Read More
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  181. Dmitry says:
    @Toronto Russian
    Okinawa is a clean and pleasant place where a record number of people live past 100. Even on backwoods roads, not a piece of garbage lies around; so safe that teenage girls stand by the roadside alone selling ice cream.
    https://www.flickr.com/photos/okinawa-soba/albums/72157634529695584
    Their low-scoring people are not like others' low-scoring people, even if average score (a measure not unlike average temperature in the hospital) really counts.

    Well according to this study, Okinawa still has the same “IQ score” average as Denmark.

    Japan is just superelevated. So the lowest scoring region in Japan, receives the same scores as Denmark or the US average.

    While a couple of places in Japan (like Akita prefecture ) are superelevated with an average IQ of 108 (which is matched in the world only by Singapore or Hong Kong).

    -
    As for whether “IQ scores” measure anything important? I’m sceptical about importance of “IQ tests” (without knowing much about the topic), but it’s still somehow interesting.

    Read More
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  182. songbird says:
    @German_reader
    I recently read David van Reybrouck's Congo. The epic history of a people. Van Reybrouck comes across as kind of left-wing and in general has a lot of sympathy for the Congolese, but even he is extremely sceptical of the more extreme claims about the Congo Free State (genocide, 10 million dead etc.).
    In any case, there was a large humanitarian campaign, and at least the worst abuses were ended when Belgium took over direct rule in 1908.

    In Michael Crichton’s Congo, I seem to remember there were evil gorilla-chimp-human hybrids.

    Read More
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  183. @Dmitry

    Israel seems to be different (unlike US Jews). Why? There, not only religious female nuts, but even Harvard PhD psychologists, pediatricians,… may have 4 or 5 children. How so?
     
    It's an interesting topic.

    At the same time, I think answer to mystery, is very understandable and quite simple explanation - when see the desire of different communities to not be outnumbered, and talking openly about each other as a "demographic threat".

    It's not only Arabs threatening to secular public, but also religious Jews (even though both these population's now have falling birthrates in Israel - from very high starting point).

    Arab population inside Israel was historically one of the fastest growing in world. It grew from a small number in 1948, to large number of today (even despite millions of Jews immigrating to Israel, Muslim share of population increased).

    Even a million people immigrating from the Soviet Union in the 1990s, only slows a trend of increasing Islamization of demographics in Israel.

    https://i.imgur.com/GA6au0h.png

    -



    A civilized person in Israel, is under dual pressure of living directly mixed together with (1) Palestinian Arabs/Muslims (one of the world's most threatening/uncivilized populations which would destroy a normal lifestyle in a developed country, and which is now over 20% of the internal population of the country). At the same time, they are also mixed with (2) growing populations of extremist Jewish religious cults (who want to return the country to medieval superstition- about 10% of the population of country belonging to most extreme and primitive form of Jewish cult, Haredi Judaism).

    Place where everyone is living right next to each other, in a geographically small area, so all demographic threats are made visible in a way which is not in large countries (where people are much more geographically separate, and demographic threats are only abstract).

    Modern people, who don't want to commit to future there also leave as soon as they can to live in America/Canada/Australia/Russia, etc. So not to emigrate for secular couples in Israel, is already a political decision.

    -

    A paradox trend is birthrates rise, while age of first marriage is high and rising (they have high overall number, even though religious population and Arab population are usually marrying at 21 or below there).

    https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_countries_by_age_at_first_marriage

    Age of first marriage in Israel is significantly higher (few years) than Russia, even though birthrates more than twice higher than Russia. (Other variables are equal, - e.g. abortion, is also available to everyone and funded freely by Israeli healthcare, no different to in Russia)

    -

    Overall age of mother at birth also increasing at same time as rising fertility rates overall, and the average age at birth is over 30.

    The proportion of babies born to women 30 years or older rose from 40.2% in 2000 to 51.5% in 2016.
    ...

    Average age of women giving birth for the first time, meanwhile, was 27.6, with the average age of a second child two years later and the age for a third child two years after that.

    A relatively sharp rise in the mother's average age at birth has also been recorded starting in 2000, rising by a year and five months and reaching 30.4 in 2016. Most of the increase can be attributed to women putting off their first birth well into their late twenties, from 25.7 in 2000 to 27.6 in 2016, as well as to the tendency to give birth after age 30.

     

    -

    Finally, birthrates fell to around 2, among the Druze and Arab Christians:

    Since 2006, however, Israel’s total fertility rate has been on the rise, and now tops Saudi Arabia...

    Israel’s fertility rate is now at its highest level since 1983, when it hit 3.20.


    The increase in Israel’s Total Fertility Rate comes despite declines among most non-Jewish demographic groups in Israel.

    Among Israeli Jewish women, the TFR reached 3.16, surpassing for the first time in Israel’s history the Arab fertility rate, which fell to 3.11.

    Broken down by religion, however, the Muslim TFR remains slightly higher than the Jewish fertility rate at 3.29 – but has declined significantly in recent years. In 1980, the Muslim TFR in Israel was 6.00, but fell to just over 4 by 2005.

    The biggest drop, however, has been among members of Israel’s Druze community, which had a TFR of 6.10 in 1980, compared to 2.15 in 2016.

     

    Coverage is only discussing trends though. Druze fertility is now the same as the secular fertility rate in Israel (secular fertility rate in Israel, although now above replacement, is still one of the lowest).

    Too complicated to give a full answer. Personally, I think that Palestinian Arabs will lose, sooner or later. Their demographic “strategy” (to call it that) will turn out to be disaster to them- they’re not fighting lefty liberal Europeans.

    Most Israelis here are, in my opinion, too cautious…. If it comes to the pinch, Arabs will be booted.

    Read More
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  184. Read More
    • Replies: @Duke of Qin
    Asia times is trash. In fact all mainstream media reporting on Chinese military affairs is mostly trash, particularly when they quote Pinkov (aka Andrei Chang) who is a running joke in some circles. Even when they get their facts right, rare enough, they draw completely nonsensical conclusions. It's like how the Western media uses Julia Ioffe or Masha Gessen to write about all things Russia which I'm sure our host Mr. Karlin can give you an earful about that. Even the so-called think tanks are trash because they are filled with time filling interns and pomo-globo types who for obvious reasons aren't as smart as they think they are. Even worse, if the author of the piece is a woman, it should be automatically treated as fish wrap.

    The only place to get up to the minute info about Chinese military in English is oddly enough on social media. Andreas Rupprecht literally wrote the book on the Chinese Air Force. I do mean literally, Harpia published his tour de force overview of the PLAAF circa 2012, a new updated book on Chinese naval aviation, and an updated edition of the PLAAF circa 2018. You will find nothing better written in English on the subject. Another source is Henri Kenhmann who also writes about the Chinese military, though he is more interested in naval affairs. He I believe works/worked for Airbus and spent several years in China working on the A320 production and actually has first experience with the Chinese aerospace industry, or at least the civilian sector. Either case, both bring the all attention to detail and autistic passion for their subject of interest that middle aged European men can muster. Unfortunately Henri mostly writes in French though, but Andreas is easily accessible in English in addition to German.

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  185. @Dmitry

    Israel seems to be different (unlike US Jews). Why? There, not only religious female nuts, but even Harvard PhD psychologists, pediatricians,… may have 4 or 5 children. How so?
     
    It's an interesting topic.

    At the same time, I think answer to mystery, is very understandable and quite simple explanation - when see the desire of different communities to not be outnumbered, and talking openly about each other as a "demographic threat".

    It's not only Arabs threatening to secular public, but also religious Jews (even though both these population's now have falling birthrates in Israel - from very high starting point).

    Arab population inside Israel was historically one of the fastest growing in world. It grew from a small number in 1948, to large number of today (even despite millions of Jews immigrating to Israel, Muslim share of population increased).

    Even a million people immigrating from the Soviet Union in the 1990s, only slows a trend of increasing Islamization of demographics in Israel.

    https://i.imgur.com/GA6au0h.png

    -



    A civilized person in Israel, is under dual pressure of living directly mixed together with (1) Palestinian Arabs/Muslims (one of the world's most threatening/uncivilized populations which would destroy a normal lifestyle in a developed country, and which is now over 20% of the internal population of the country). At the same time, they are also mixed with (2) growing populations of extremist Jewish religious cults (who want to return the country to medieval superstition- about 10% of the population of country belonging to most extreme and primitive form of Jewish cult, Haredi Judaism).

    Place where everyone is living right next to each other, in a geographically small area, so all demographic threats are made visible in a way which is not in large countries (where people are much more geographically separate, and demographic threats are only abstract).

    Modern people, who don't want to commit to future there also leave as soon as they can to live in America/Canada/Australia/Russia, etc. So not to emigrate for secular couples in Israel, is already a political decision.

    -

    A paradox trend is birthrates rise, while age of first marriage is high and rising (they have high overall number, even though religious population and Arab population are usually marrying at 21 or below there).

    https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_countries_by_age_at_first_marriage

    Age of first marriage in Israel is significantly higher (few years) than Russia, even though birthrates more than twice higher than Russia. (Other variables are equal, - e.g. abortion, is also available to everyone and funded freely by Israeli healthcare, no different to in Russia)

    -

    Overall age of mother at birth also increasing at same time as rising fertility rates overall, and the average age at birth is over 30.

    The proportion of babies born to women 30 years or older rose from 40.2% in 2000 to 51.5% in 2016.
    ...

    Average age of women giving birth for the first time, meanwhile, was 27.6, with the average age of a second child two years later and the age for a third child two years after that.

    A relatively sharp rise in the mother's average age at birth has also been recorded starting in 2000, rising by a year and five months and reaching 30.4 in 2016. Most of the increase can be attributed to women putting off their first birth well into their late twenties, from 25.7 in 2000 to 27.6 in 2016, as well as to the tendency to give birth after age 30.

     

    -

    Finally, birthrates fell to around 2, among the Druze and Arab Christians:

    Since 2006, however, Israel’s total fertility rate has been on the rise, and now tops Saudi Arabia...

    Israel’s fertility rate is now at its highest level since 1983, when it hit 3.20.


    The increase in Israel’s Total Fertility Rate comes despite declines among most non-Jewish demographic groups in Israel.

    Among Israeli Jewish women, the TFR reached 3.16, surpassing for the first time in Israel’s history the Arab fertility rate, which fell to 3.11.

    Broken down by religion, however, the Muslim TFR remains slightly higher than the Jewish fertility rate at 3.29 – but has declined significantly in recent years. In 1980, the Muslim TFR in Israel was 6.00, but fell to just over 4 by 2005.

    The biggest drop, however, has been among members of Israel’s Druze community, which had a TFR of 6.10 in 1980, compared to 2.15 in 2016.

     

    Coverage is only discussing trends though. Druze fertility is now the same as the secular fertility rate in Israel (secular fertility rate in Israel, although now above replacement, is still one of the lowest).

    By the way- not worthy of reading the whole stuff- but as an illustration (I’ve come across this):

    https://blogs.timesofisrael.com/celebrating-70-extraordinary-women-of-israel/

    Celebrating 70 extraordinary women of Israel
    ………………….

    5. Anita Weisfeld
    ……..
    Together, they have three grown children and nine grandchildren.

    7. Miriam Ballin
    ………
    Miriam spent five years in Australia before moving to Israel with her husband and 5 children.

    13. Shari Mendes
    ………..
    Shari, her husband David and their four children made aliyah in 2003 from New Jersey

    15. Dr. Yael Maizels
    …………
    Proud mother of five, Yael holds a BA in Biology and Jewish History from UPenn and completed her PhD at Hebrew University in Developmental and Cancer Biology.

    etc. etc.

    Read More
    • Replies: @Dmitry
    Demographers seem to write a lot of papers about Israel, which answer some kind of questions we talk about.

    https://pdfs.semanticscholar.org/b59e/5cde0d660f36ba97a129a533fddc2ee8500a.pdf

    Quotes from this 2004 article:

    Immigrant women to Israel in the 1950s from North African and Asian countries experienced fertility decreases towards the veteran population whereas immigrant women from European countries in the same period experienced an increase in fertility towards the norm. Friedlander & Goldscheider (1978) attribute the changes in the fertility of immigrants mainly to economic conditions and furthermore, Friedlander et al (1980) found that socio-economic status, rather than cultural differences, is the determining factor of fertility decline amongst immigrants from Asia and Africa. Immigrants who were more exposed to elements of socioeconomic change in Israel, those who married after immigration or the more educated controlled their fertility through both spacing and stopping. However, the less educated and those married prior to immigration employed only stopping. In another study, it was found that immigrant women from Asia and Africa desired smaller families than their husbands. However, due to the prevalent gender power relations amongst such immigrants, women are not usually the reproductive decision makers.
     
    Russian-speaking immigrants of 1970s converged in behaviour.

    Sabatello (1992,1995) examined the fertility and abortion patterns of immigrants from the FSU who immigrated to Israel in the 1970s. The immigrants in their initial phase of immigration did not experience any significant change in their fertility but by the early 1990s their fertility was only 10% lower than that of Israeli Jewish women yet 50% higher than that of Jews in the USSR. Despite this, he found that even after 10 to 15 years exposure to Israeli family planning patterns, immigrants continued to use abortion as a means to control their fertility. However, although their abortion application rates were 26% higher than the average Israeli Jewish woman, the rates were significantly lower than those prevailing in the Soviet Union at the time. Interestingly, these immigrants preserved the pattern of early childbearing, followed by stopping rather than delaying childbearing
     
    Jews - even lower fertility rates in Soviet Union than non-Jews in Soviet Union, reaching fertility rate of 0.8 in early 1990s.

    Jewish women, in both the Ukraine and Russia have even lower fertility rates than those prevalent in the general population – in 1979 the Jewish fertility rate was about half that of the general population (Kostantinov, 1991). Between 1988-1989 and 1993- 1994, the TFR of Russian Jewish women fell by 46% from 1.5 to 0.8 (lower than the overall urban TFR and lower even than overall TFR of Moscow and St. Petersburg) (Tolts, 1997).
     

    The low fertility rate of the FSU is surprising given the high marriage rate. Prior to the 1990s, the prevalence of marriage was high and the mean age of marriage was low. During the 1990s, the marriage rates have decreased although the mean age of marriage has remained stable, indicating that people are not simply postponing marriage (Micevska, 2002).
    ...
    Abortion is of particular importance when discussing the fertility behaviour of FSU immigrants, as the abortion rate in the FSU is particularly high (Paltiel et al, 1997; Popov, 1991). The FSU is the only country to have achieved low fertility with the use of abortion as the main form of birth control, with no analogous developed country (Popov, 1991), apart from those Eastern European countries in the Soviet sphere of influence. The only easily accessible method was induced abortion, the principal means of fertility regulation (Scherbov & van Vianen, 2002). Reliable imported contraceptives were limited and expensive and other contraceptives, Soviet made or imported from East European countries, were unreliable and of poor quality (Amir et al, 1997). On the other hand, abortion was available using local equipment and personnel with no need for imported goods and available without charge (Popov, 1991). Abortion was devoid of the values and the controversy present in other countries (Remmenick, 1993; Amir et al, 1997), being regarded simply as an unpleasant medical procedure and found acceptable by the vast majority of Russian women (Bystydzienski, 1989).
     
    Contraception use maybe less relevant there.


    Israeli Jewish society is also relatively conservative regarding extra-marital childbearing. In 2000 only 2.8% of all births were to never-married women. Although many Jewish women cohabit prior to marriage, marriage is still the dominant framework within which childbearing occurs. Abortion behaviour amongst Jewish women is similar to Western Europe in terms of the rates (the total abortion rate in 1999 was 0.45 abortions per woman). However, the marital status makeup is more similar to Eastern European countries (Amir & Benjamin, 1997) and the percentage of births aborted is less than other developed countries due to the higher fertility rates. Data on contraceptive use in Israel is very hard to come by. The prevailing fertility rates, along with the abortion and marriage rates, indicate widespread use of contraception, particularly amongst secular Jews.
     
    Diagram discussing different populations inside Israel. So with people from Soviet Union, the slightly earlier childbirth age. (Same as in Russia ).

    https://i.imgur.com/l2Zqj64.jpg

    Ethiopian fertility rate falling in 1990s Israel, but FSU immigrants not much rising.

    https://i.imgur.com/G56vYgd.jpg
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  186. Dmitry says:
    @Bardon Kaldian
    By the way- not worthy of reading the whole stuff- but as an illustration (I've come across this):
    https://blogs.timesofisrael.com/celebrating-70-extraordinary-women-of-israel/

    Celebrating 70 extraordinary women of Israel
    ......................

    5. Anita Weisfeld
    ........
    Together, they have three grown children and nine grandchildren.
     

    7. Miriam Ballin
    .........
    Miriam spent five years in Australia before moving to Israel with her husband and 5 children.
     

    13. Shari Mendes
    ...........
    Shari, her husband David and their four children made aliyah in 2003 from New Jersey
     

    15. Dr. Yael Maizels
    ............
    Proud mother of five, Yael holds a BA in Biology and Jewish History from UPenn and completed her PhD at Hebrew University in Developmental and Cancer Biology.
     
    etc. etc.

    Demographers seem to write a lot of papers about Israel, which answer some kind of questions we talk about.

    https://pdfs.semanticscholar.org/b59e/5cde0d660f36ba97a129a533fddc2ee8500a.pdf

    Quotes from this 2004 article:

    Immigrant women to Israel in the 1950s from North African and Asian countries experienced fertility decreases towards the veteran population whereas immigrant women from European countries in the same period experienced an increase in fertility towards the norm. Friedlander & Goldscheider (1978) attribute the changes in the fertility of immigrants mainly to economic conditions and furthermore, Friedlander et al (1980) found that socio-economic status, rather than cultural differences, is the determining factor of fertility decline amongst immigrants from Asia and Africa. Immigrants who were more exposed to elements of socioeconomic change in Israel, those who married after immigration or the more educated controlled their fertility through both spacing and stopping. However, the less educated and those married prior to immigration employed only stopping. In another study, it was found that immigrant women from Asia and Africa desired smaller families than their husbands. However, due to the prevalent gender power relations amongst such immigrants, women are not usually the reproductive decision makers.

    Russian-speaking immigrants of 1970s converged in behaviour.

    Sabatello (1992,1995) examined the fertility and abortion patterns of immigrants from the FSU who immigrated to Israel in the 1970s. The immigrants in their initial phase of immigration did not experience any significant change in their fertility but by the early 1990s their fertility was only 10% lower than that of Israeli Jewish women yet 50% higher than that of Jews in the USSR. Despite this, he found that even after 10 to 15 years exposure to Israeli family planning patterns, immigrants continued to use abortion as a means to control their fertility. However, although their abortion application rates were 26% higher than the average Israeli Jewish woman, the rates were significantly lower than those prevailing in the Soviet Union at the time. Interestingly, these immigrants preserved the pattern of early childbearing, followed by stopping rather than delaying childbearing

    Jews – even lower fertility rates in Soviet Union than non-Jews in Soviet Union, reaching fertility rate of 0.8 in early 1990s.

    Jewish women, in both the Ukraine and Russia have even lower fertility rates than those prevalent in the general population – in 1979 the Jewish fertility rate was about half that of the general population (Kostantinov, 1991). Between 1988-1989 and 1993- 1994, the TFR of Russian Jewish women fell by 46% from 1.5 to 0.8 (lower than the overall urban TFR and lower even than overall TFR of Moscow and St. Petersburg) (Tolts, 1997).

    The low fertility rate of the FSU is surprising given the high marriage rate. Prior to the 1990s, the prevalence of marriage was high and the mean age of marriage was low. During the 1990s, the marriage rates have decreased although the mean age of marriage has remained stable, indicating that people are not simply postponing marriage (Micevska, 2002).

    Abortion is of particular importance when discussing the fertility behaviour of FSU immigrants, as the abortion rate in the FSU is particularly high (Paltiel et al, 1997; Popov, 1991). The FSU is the only country to have achieved low fertility with the use of abortion as the main form of birth control, with no analogous developed country (Popov, 1991), apart from those Eastern European countries in the Soviet sphere of influence. The only easily accessible method was induced abortion, the principal means of fertility regulation (Scherbov & van Vianen, 2002). Reliable imported contraceptives were limited and expensive and other contraceptives, Soviet made or imported from East European countries, were unreliable and of poor quality (Amir et al, 1997). On the other hand, abortion was available using local equipment and personnel with no need for imported goods and available without charge (Popov, 1991). Abortion was devoid of the values and the controversy present in other countries (Remmenick, 1993; Amir et al, 1997), being regarded simply as an unpleasant medical procedure and found acceptable by the vast majority of Russian women (Bystydzienski, 1989).

    Contraception use maybe less relevant there.

    Israeli Jewish society is also relatively conservative regarding extra-marital childbearing. In 2000 only 2.8% of all births were to never-married women. Although many Jewish women cohabit prior to marriage, marriage is still the dominant framework within which childbearing occurs. Abortion behaviour amongst Jewish women is similar to Western Europe in terms of the rates (the total abortion rate in 1999 was 0.45 abortions per woman). However, the marital status makeup is more similar to Eastern European countries (Amir & Benjamin, 1997) and the percentage of births aborted is less than other developed countries due to the higher fertility rates. Data on contraceptive use in Israel is very hard to come by. The prevailing fertility rates, along with the abortion and marriage rates, indicate widespread use of contraception, particularly amongst secular Jews.

    Diagram discussing different populations inside Israel. So with people from Soviet Union, the slightly earlier childbirth age. (Same as in Russia ).

    Ethiopian fertility rate falling in 1990s Israel, but FSU immigrants not much rising.

    Read More
    • Replies: @Bardon Kaldian
    Yeah, but they don't show- why?

    I would say that it is Zionism, or Jewish nationalism as the prime motivator for higher than average fertility among relatively well-off secular Jews. Demographic marathon with Muslims, that's it.

    Zionism is, contrary to Jewish and antisemitic myths, a typical 19th C national ideology from central & eastern Europe. So, various orthodox religionists may have higher fertility because they're, basically, pre-modern; on the other hand, fertile Israeli Jews need not be religious nor patriarchally backward.

    Nationalism & ethnic claustrophobia (sea of Arabs around them) are more than enough to explain this anomaly.
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  187. Pericles says:
    @DFH
    Those were pretty terrible things, done to Africans by other Africans not ordered or supervised by Europeans

    http://thealternativehypothesis.org/index.php/2016/07/24/mythologies-about-leopolds-congo-free-state/

    Lol, that article has an eerie similarity to a thread here: http://www.unz.com/akarlin/brussels-impressions/#comment-2236513

    Though perhaps a liiittle bit better researched.

    In summary, Hochschild’s scary genocide numbers seem to be bunk. Greatly exaggerated. Humanities types BTFO.

    Read More
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  188. AP says:
    @Dmitry
    Number of tanks which are active and operational in Ukraine, will be far lower than this.

    It will be at best a similar story to numbers of T-80s in Russia. There are over 3000 in storage now. Yet actual number of T-80 which are operating today is only several hundreds.

    -

    Baltic countries have 0 tanks, but they are part of NATO.

    In Poland, American force deployed with over 200 tanks.

    However, in any way you can count, Russia will still have more (even high quality) tanks in relevant parts of Europe than NATO + Ukraine, even before accounting for any production of T-14.

    -

    Any actual war between neighbours would be a stupid disaster, but even if purpose is to prepare for war, producing 2,300 T-14 seems "overkill".

    And with deterrence impact, probably Law of Diminishing Returns in producing suddenly thousands of T-14, as combined NATO + Ukraine are already outnumbered in terms of tanks in the region.

    Number of tanks which are active and operational in Ukraine, will be far lower than this.

    No, this is the number of active ones. Ukraine has a few thousand in storage, needing repair. Ukraine has been upgrading and bringing out a few hundred tanks per year.

    Any actual war between neighbours would be a stupid disaster, but even if purpose is to prepare for war, producing 2,300 T-14 seems “overkill”.

    For Baltics, yes. For sweeping through Ukraine, no.

    Read More
    • Replies: @Dmitry
    I don't think active numbers can be so high, e.g. 713 for these T-64.

    Wikipedia article was linking to this source: https://www.iiss.org/publications/the-military-balance/the-military-balance-2017

    (I'm not sure if any of us know how to pirate this book?)

    Most of these Tank Т-64БВ from 1984 - will surely be most in some yards (and not used).

    Ukraine is doing a lot of different modernizing of some of these in last decades.

    Modernization projects seem to be a few dozen tanks at a time.

    Ukraine lists its tanks without numbers -
    http://www.mil.gov.ua/ministry/ozbroennya-ta-texnika/suxoputnix-vijsk/tanki.html

    We know of this T-84 they boast about though, there's only about a dozen actually built.


    -

    Modernized T-64 loook pretty cool it has to be admitted.

    https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=kIDE7ZmfkZ4
    , @Dmitry
    Apologies to others for offtopic, but since we have this discussion last week with you and Gerard.

    New article is published in Israeli English media about offshoring in Ukraine.

    I'm not economist, but I can't see how this would not be bad for Israel. (It would be much better for Israel, if they coerced instead currently unemployed Haredim and Arabs for these jobs, and keep the income inside its country).

    At the same time, according to this article, you were right that salaries can be $2,500 per month in Ukraine. Probably Ukraine's economy has some optimism in this area.


    15,000 Ukrainians are working for Israeli high-tech companies. The Ukrainian government wants to increase that to 150,000.
    ...

    According to figures from the government in Kiev, 15,000 Ukrainian computer programmers and software engineers are already employed by the Israeli high-tech industry. The Ukrainians' main mission is to multiply this number by 10 to 150,000 in the coming years - no less than that.
    ...

    In recent years, Ukraine has become a symbol of outsourcing in Israeli high tech. A few of the large companies have already been hiring employees there for years, and these companies have also been joined by smaller startups. In a country in which the average wage is $220 a month, a software engineer getting paid $2,500 a month becomes a wealthy man. For an Israeli company, this is a quarter or less of what it pays local software personnel.

     

    https://en.globes.co.il/en/article-ukraine-offers-lowcost-hightech-professionals-1001247913
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  189. Dmitry says:
    @AP

    Number of tanks which are active and operational in Ukraine, will be far lower than this.
     
    No, this is the number of active ones. Ukraine has a few thousand in storage, needing repair. Ukraine has been upgrading and bringing out a few hundred tanks per year.

    Any actual war between neighbours would be a stupid disaster, but even if purpose is to prepare for war, producing 2,300 T-14 seems “overkill”.

     

    For Baltics, yes. For sweeping through Ukraine, no.

    I don’t think active numbers can be so high, e.g. 713 for these T-64.

    Wikipedia article was linking to this source: https://www.iiss.org/publications/the-military-balance/the-military-balance-2017

    (I’m not sure if any of us know how to pirate this book?)

    Most of these Tank Т-64БВ from 1984 – will surely be most in some yards (and not used).

    Ukraine is doing a lot of different modernizing of some of these in last decades.

    Modernization projects seem to be a few dozen tanks at a time.

    Ukraine lists its tanks without numbers –

    http://www.mil.gov.ua/ministry/ozbroennya-ta-texnika/suxoputnix-vijsk/tanki.html

    We know of this T-84 they boast about though, there’s only about a dozen actually built.

    -

    Modernized T-64 loook pretty cool it has to be admitted.

    Read More
    • Replies: @AP

    I don’t think active numbers can be so high, e.g. 713 for these T-64.
     
    Why? Sources typically state that Ukraine has about 2,200 tanks:

    https://www.globalfirepower.com/country-military-strength-detail.asp?country_id=ukraine

    This large number obviously includes ones in storage.

    Here is a detailed article from 2017 describing Ukraine's military improvements:

    https://www.osw.waw.pl/sites/default/files/prace_66_ang_best_army_ukraine_net.pdf

    On page 27 it lists tanks and armored combat vehicles together. From 2014-2017 about 140 were built and 8,000 were repaired (some were repaired more than once). It doesn't list tanks separately, but the number of 800 in active service would be reasonable given such figures.

    We know of this T-84 they boast about though, there’s only about a dozen actually built.
     
    Correct. Modernizing and repairing 10 T-64s costs as much as building one T-84. Ukraine has a couple thousand or so of T-64s in storage so it has mostly been modernizing them.

    Modernized T-64 loook pretty cool it has to be admitted.
     
    During the strong Europe tank challenge in 2017 Ukraine's team used a modernized T-64 and came in 5th place out of six teams, beating the Polish group with its Leopard 2A5:

    https://www.sofmag.com/watch-the-strong-europe-tank-challenge-see-how-u-s-scored/

    In 2018 Ukraine used a T-84 and came in last place, due partially to the field conditions but also due to glitches wit the tank itself. So until these problems are solved, it's probably good that Ukraine has about 700 modernized T-64s and only a dozen or so T-84s.
    , @Anatoly Karlin

    (I’m not sure if any of us know how to pirate this book?)
     
    http://gen.lib.rus.ec/search.php?req=The+Military+Balance+2017&lg_topic=libgen&open=0&view=simple&res=25&phrase=0&column=def
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  190. Dmitry says:
    @AP

    Number of tanks which are active and operational in Ukraine, will be far lower than this.
     
    No, this is the number of active ones. Ukraine has a few thousand in storage, needing repair. Ukraine has been upgrading and bringing out a few hundred tanks per year.

    Any actual war between neighbours would be a stupid disaster, but even if purpose is to prepare for war, producing 2,300 T-14 seems “overkill”.

     

    For Baltics, yes. For sweeping through Ukraine, no.

    Apologies to others for offtopic, but since we have this discussion last week with you and Gerard.

    New article is published in Israeli English media about offshoring in Ukraine.

    I’m not economist, but I can’t see how this would not be bad for Israel. (It would be much better for Israel, if they coerced instead currently unemployed Haredim and Arabs for these jobs, and keep the income inside its country).

    At the same time, according to this article, you were right that salaries can be $2,500 per month in Ukraine. Probably Ukraine’s economy has some optimism in this area.

    15,000 Ukrainians are working for Israeli high-tech companies. The Ukrainian government wants to increase that to 150,000.

    According to figures from the government in Kiev, 15,000 Ukrainian computer programmers and software engineers are already employed by the Israeli high-tech industry. The Ukrainians’ main mission is to multiply this number by 10 to 150,000 in the coming years – no less than that.

    In recent years, Ukraine has become a symbol of outsourcing in Israeli high tech. A few of the large companies have already been hiring employees there for years, and these companies have also been joined by smaller startups. In a country in which the average wage is $220 a month, a software engineer getting paid $2,500 a month becomes a wealthy man. For an Israeli company, this is a quarter or less of what it pays local software personnel.

    https://en.globes.co.il/en/article-ukraine-offers-lowcost-hightech-professionals-1001247913

    Read More
    • Replies: @AP
    Of course. This is very obvious in Lviv - there are tons of restaurants and cafes, and recently luxury stores have popped up (there is now Armani, for example). Shoppers aren't crooks or some sort of oligarchs but well-paid people in this industry. And there are enough of them to support such consumption.

    They just started building this in Lviv:

    https://itcluster.lviv.ua/en/u-lvovi-ctartuye-budivnytstvo-it-park-vartistyu-160-mln-dolariv/
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  191. songbird says:

    I’ve just heard new facet of the standard China/Africa comparison: “Africa is China’s China.”

    It is like they are fitting two jokes into one. Though I still prefer Djibouti as the new Singapore. It has a certain humorous euphony, which probably can’t be exceeded in English.

    Read More
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  192. @Bliss

    Maybe you can discuss the issue with Thorfinnsson :-)
     
    That guy is pure evil. Which of course brings a smile to your German face. Sad.

    https://allthatsinteresting.com/wordpress/wp-content/uploads/2016/09/leopold-ii-daughters-limbs.jpg

    The greed of the Congo’s overlords knew no boundaries, and the lengths to which they went to gratify it were likewise extreme. Just as Christopher Columbus had done in Hispaniola 400 years earlier, Leopold II imposed quotas on every man in his realm for production of raw materials.
    Men who failed to meet their ivory and gold quota even once would face mutilation, with hands and feet being the most popular sites for amputation. If the man could not be caught, or if he needed both hands to work, Forces Publique men would cut the hands off of his wife or children
    .

    While the stuff about chopping off limbs has made its way to Wikipedia, it never made any sense to me. That’s the kind of thing Africans did, and continue to do today in civil disturbances and full-fledged wars. Here’s a passage from Alternative Hypothesis that contests Wikipedia’s account:

    On issue historians face when condemning Leopold II is a lack of documentation; even a BBC documentary blithely accused Leopold of destroying the relevant records. It’s not a charge that is easy to respond to; how does one prove that no records were destroyed?

    But it shouldn’t matter, because from 1904 to 1908, in response to public outcry over the Congo, an independent council created by Italy, Switzerland and Belgium conducted an ongoing investigation and released periodical reports called The Official Bulletin of the Congo Free State (translation).

    Of course this council did not report extreme genocide going at the behest of Leopold’s government. In fact, they reported that the abuses occurred almost exclusively when FP detachments were sent out WITHOUT a European commander, and that the presence of European commanders was what prevented atrocities and rape.

    (It is interesting to read these bulletins and see just how matter-of-fact they are about it; it’s just assumed that blacks will rape unless kept in order by whites.)

    And in terms of mutilation – chopping off hands and feet – there is zero documentation that that was Leopold’s policy, nor did the investigation find any evidence that it was Leopold’s policy. In fact, the investigation claimed that this was done by indigenous members of the FP, particularly when a European officer was absent.

    In addition, chopping off limbs seems to be a ridiculous policy given that the biggest problem Leopold had was a labor shortage. It is also known that limb mutilation had occurred both before and after the Congo Free State – and without any reliable statistics, there’s no way to know if it even increased during the Congo Free State.

    The argument of the investigation was that Leopold’s government was not pro-active in stopping these atrocities and may have facilitated them by arming members of certain tribes who had long-running hatreds against other tribes.

    Amazingly, even after knowing this, some white readers will still do whatever they can to blame Leopold as the chief culprit for whatever happened, because it makes them feel like good people or something.

    I wouldn’t even judge the Africans involved too harshly, given that it is likely that their rules of engagement were precisely the rules that have prevailed since time immemorial there – i.e. there are no rules because human enemies are far more dangerous than even the largest and fiercest predators. The book War Before Civilization looks at the kinds of things people did to survive against other human rivals, based on archaeological finds, and it’s far worse than what Leopold’s native troops did in using Leopold’s weapons and training to fulfill their parochial, sectarian goals against their traditional African rivals.

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    • Replies: @German_reader
    Van Reybrouck in the book I mentioned above had the following explanation: According to him the native troops in the service of the free state had to account for all the ammunition they used when sent out without European supervision, because their superiors didn't want them to waste ammo on hunting game. So they adopted the practice of chopping off the hands of people they had killed, to show as proof what they had used their ammo for.
    Certainly disturbing enough, but it seems chopping off the limbs of living people (instead of corpses) wasn't as widespread as is often believed.
    , @AP
    Thank you and others for the additional info.
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  193. @Johann Ricke
    While the stuff about chopping off limbs has made its way to Wikipedia, it never made any sense to me. That's the kind of thing Africans did, and continue to do today in civil disturbances and full-fledged wars. Here's a passage from Alternative Hypothesis that contests Wikipedia's account:

    On issue historians face when condemning Leopold II is a lack of documentation; even a BBC documentary blithely accused Leopold of destroying the relevant records. It’s not a charge that is easy to respond to; how does one prove that no records were destroyed?

    But it shouldn’t matter, because from 1904 to 1908, in response to public outcry over the Congo, an independent council created by Italy, Switzerland and Belgium conducted an ongoing investigation and released periodical reports called The Official Bulletin of the Congo Free State (translation).

    Of course this council did not report extreme genocide going at the behest of Leopold’s government. In fact, they reported that the abuses occurred almost exclusively when FP detachments were sent out WITHOUT a European commander, and that the presence of European commanders was what prevented atrocities and rape.

    (It is interesting to read these bulletins and see just how matter-of-fact they are about it; it’s just assumed that blacks will rape unless kept in order by whites.)

    And in terms of mutilation – chopping off hands and feet – there is zero documentation that that was Leopold’s policy, nor did the investigation find any evidence that it was Leopold’s policy. In fact, the investigation claimed that this was done by indigenous members of the FP, particularly when a European officer was absent.

    In addition, chopping off limbs seems to be a ridiculous policy given that the biggest problem Leopold had was a labor shortage. It is also known that limb mutilation had occurred both before and after the Congo Free State – and without any reliable statistics, there’s no way to know if it even increased during the Congo Free State.

    The argument of the investigation was that Leopold’s government was not pro-active in stopping these atrocities and may have facilitated them by arming members of certain tribes who had long-running hatreds against other tribes.

    Amazingly, even after knowing this, some white readers will still do whatever they can to blame Leopold as the chief culprit for whatever happened, because it makes them feel like good people or something.
     
    I wouldn't even judge the Africans involved too harshly, given that it is likely that their rules of engagement were precisely the rules that have prevailed since time immemorial there - i.e. there are no rules because human enemies are far more dangerous than even the largest and fiercest predators. The book War Before Civilization looks at the kinds of things people did to survive against other human rivals, based on archaeological finds, and it's far worse than what Leopold's native troops did in using Leopold's weapons and training to fulfill their parochial, sectarian goals against their traditional African rivals.

    Van Reybrouck in the book I mentioned above had the following explanation: According to him the native troops in the service of the free state had to account for all the ammunition they used when sent out without European supervision, because their superiors didn’t want them to waste ammo on hunting game. So they adopted the practice of chopping off the hands of people they had killed, to show as proof what they had used their ammo for.
    Certainly disturbing enough, but it seems chopping off the limbs of living people (instead of corpses) wasn’t as widespread as is often believed.

    Read More
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  194. @Bliss
    Well, he put a smiley there when suggesting I engage with that evil pomposity Thugfinnson.

    I know german-reader’s opinion on such matters is not much different from the Thug’s. Still, I take back the “German” in that post. That was wrong. Not all Germans fit the Nazi stereotype.

    However it is undeniable that the colonial germans in Africa were genocidal Nazis a generation before the real Nazis came to be:

    https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/Herero_and_Namaqua_genocide

    The Herero and Nama genocide was a campaign of racial extermination and collective punishment that the German Empire undertook in German South West Africa (now Namibia) against the Ovaherero and the Nama. It is considered the first genocide of the 20th century.

    In 2004, the German government recognized and apologized for the events, but ruled out financial compensation for the victims' descendants. In July 2015, the German government and the speaker of the Bundestag officially called the events a "genocide" and "part of a race war". However, it has refused to consider reparations.

    “I was present when the Herero were defeated in a battle in the vicinity of Waterberg. After the battle all men, women, and children who fell into German hands, wounded or otherwise, were mercilessly put to death. Then the Germans set off in pursuit of the rest, and all those found by the wayside and in the sandveld were shot down and bayoneted to death. The mass of the Herero men were unarmed and thus unable to offer resistance. They were just trying to get away with their cattle.”

    Trotha gave orders that captured Herero males were to be executed, while women and children were to be driven into the desert where their death from starvation and thirst was to be certain; Trotha argued that there was no need to make exceptions for Herero women and children, since these would "infect German troops with their diseases", the insurrection Trotha explained "is and remains the beginning of a racial struggle". Regardless, German soldiers regularly raped young Herero women before killing them or letting them die in the desert.

    Upon the arrival of new orders at the end of 1904, prisoners were herded into concentration camps, where they were given to private companies as slave labourers or exploited as human guinea pigs in medical experiments.....Prisoners were used for medical experiments and their illnesses or their recoveries from them were used for research.

    The Herero genocide has commanded the attention of historians who study complex issues of continuity between the Herero genocide and the Holocaust. It is argued that the Herero genocide set a precedent in Imperial Germany that would later be followed by Nazi Germany's establishment of death camps.

    According to Benjamin Madley, the German experience in South West Africa was a crucial precursor to Nazi colonialism and genocide. He argues that personal connections, literature, and public debates served as conduits for communicating colonialist and genocidal ideas and methods from the colony to Germany. Tony Barta, an honorary research associate at La Trobe University, argues that the Herero genocide was an inspiration for Hitler in his war against the Jews, Slavs, Gypsies, and others described as "non-Aryans".

    According to Clarence Lusane, Eugen Fischer's medical experiments can be seen as a testing ground for later medical procedures used during the Nazi Holocaust.

    Mahmood Mamdani argues that the links between the Holocaust and the Herero genocide are beyond the execution of an annihilation policy and the establishment of concentration camps and that there are ideological similarities in the conduct of both genocides

    It almost sounds like you’re afraid of me.

    NIGGER.

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    • Replies: @iffen
    True that she called you Thugfinnsson, but is this really necessary?
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  195. AP says:
    @Dmitry
    I don't think active numbers can be so high, e.g. 713 for these T-64.

    Wikipedia article was linking to this source: https://www.iiss.org/publications/the-military-balance/the-military-balance-2017

    (I'm not sure if any of us know how to pirate this book?)

    Most of these Tank Т-64БВ from 1984 - will surely be most in some yards (and not used).

    Ukraine is doing a lot of different modernizing of some of these in last decades.

    Modernization projects seem to be a few dozen tanks at a time.

    Ukraine lists its tanks without numbers -
    http://www.mil.gov.ua/ministry/ozbroennya-ta-texnika/suxoputnix-vijsk/tanki.html

    We know of this T-84 they boast about though, there's only about a dozen actually built.


    -

    Modernized T-64 loook pretty cool it has to be admitted.

    https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=kIDE7ZmfkZ4

    I don’t think active numbers can be so high, e.g. 713 for these T-64.

    Why? Sources typically state that Ukraine has about 2,200 tanks:

    https://www.globalfirepower.com/country-military-strength-detail.asp?country_id=ukraine

    This large number obviously includes ones in storage.

    Here is a detailed article from 2017 describing Ukraine’s military improvements:

    https://www.osw.waw.pl/sites/default/files/prace_66_ang_best_army_ukraine_net.pdf

    On page 27 it lists tanks and armored combat vehicles together. From 2014-2017 about 140 were built and 8,000 were repaired (some were repaired more than once). It doesn’t list tanks separately, but the number of 800 in active service would be reasonable given such figures.

    We know of this T-84 they boast about though, there’s only about a dozen actually built.

    Correct. Modernizing and repairing 10 T-64s costs as much as building one T-84. Ukraine has a couple thousand or so of T-64s in storage so it has mostly been modernizing them.

    Modernized T-64 loook pretty cool it has to be admitted.

    During the strong Europe tank challenge in 2017 Ukraine’s team used a modernized T-64 and came in 5th place out of six teams, beating the Polish group with its Leopard 2A5:

    https://www.sofmag.com/watch-the-strong-europe-tank-challenge-see-how-u-s-scored/

    In 2018 Ukraine used a T-84 and came in last place, due partially to the field conditions but also due to glitches wit the tank itself. So until these problems are solved, it’s probably good that Ukraine has about 700 modernized T-64s and only a dozen or so T-84s.

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    • Replies: @reiner Tor
    A thousand battle tanks are not that many. Yes, Hungary currently has just 34 (and in reality just a dozen or so), but in the 1980s we had over a thousand, mostly the then already dated T-55, but we also had the then kinda modern T-72. Based on that, I’m sure that a country the size of Hungary could easily field hundreds of modern battle tanks, so Ukraine must be able to do so as well.
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  196. AP says:
    @Johann Ricke
    While the stuff about chopping off limbs has made its way to Wikipedia, it never made any sense to me. That's the kind of thing Africans did, and continue to do today in civil disturbances and full-fledged wars. Here's a passage from Alternative Hypothesis that contests Wikipedia's account:

    On issue historians face when condemning Leopold II is a lack of documentation; even a BBC documentary blithely accused Leopold of destroying the relevant records. It’s not a charge that is easy to respond to; how does one prove that no records were destroyed?

    But it shouldn’t matter, because from 1904 to 1908, in response to public outcry over the Congo, an independent council created by Italy, Switzerland and Belgium conducted an ongoing investigation and released periodical reports called The Official Bulletin of the Congo Free State (translation).

    Of course this council did not report extreme genocide going at the behest of Leopold’s government. In fact, they reported that the abuses occurred almost exclusively when FP detachments were sent out WITHOUT a European commander, and that the presence of European commanders was what prevented atrocities and rape.

    (It is interesting to read these bulletins and see just how matter-of-fact they are about it; it’s just assumed that blacks will rape unless kept in order by whites.)

    And in terms of mutilation – chopping off hands and feet – there is zero documentation that that was Leopold’s policy, nor did the investigation find any evidence that it was Leopold’s policy. In fact, the investigation claimed that this was done by indigenous members of the FP, particularly when a European officer was absent.

    In addition, chopping off limbs seems to be a ridiculous policy given that the biggest problem Leopold had was a labor shortage. It is also known that limb mutilation had occurred both before and after the Congo Free State – and without any reliable statistics, there’s no way to know if it even increased during the Congo Free State.

    The argument of the investigation was that Leopold’s government was not pro-active in stopping these atrocities and may have facilitated them by arming members of certain tribes who had long-running hatreds against other tribes.

    Amazingly, even after knowing this, some white readers will still do whatever they can to blame Leopold as the chief culprit for whatever happened, because it makes them feel like good people or something.
     
    I wouldn't even judge the Africans involved too harshly, given that it is likely that their rules of engagement were precisely the rules that have prevailed since time immemorial there - i.e. there are no rules because human enemies are far more dangerous than even the largest and fiercest predators. The book War Before Civilization looks at the kinds of things people did to survive against other human rivals, based on archaeological finds, and it's far worse than what Leopold's native troops did in using Leopold's weapons and training to fulfill their parochial, sectarian goals against their traditional African rivals.

    Thank you and others for the additional info.

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  197. Druid says:
    @Felix Keverich

    As I understand it, the One Child Policy was itself inspired by the neo-Malthusian gloom of those times...A more human capital-centered/biorealistic viewpoint on the economy might have helped them escape this trap, and China today might have 1.6 billion people instead of 1.3 billion, and a younger population.
     
    It would also make the country poorer and considerably less stable, than it is now. Look at all the problems Iranians are having: protests, youth unemployment. This is simply a byproduct of having very young population. Tsarist Russia had two revolutions because it too young and dynamic for its own good.

    IN Iran, decades of sanctions and threat from the US has played a big part, I think. The average Iranian is quite poor. Huge wealth disparity, like the US

    Read More
    • Replies: @Felix Keverich
    The average Iranian is wealthier than the average Chinese. But they really have more young men, than they know what to do with.

    A younger, more populous China would have been less stable. A less stable China would have been less attractive as a manufacturing hub for Western multinationals. It could have been a very different country, and not in the way Karlin imagines it.
    , @Bardon Kaldian
    https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=kuVmtyw9pd4



    https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=EfAwG4kPOLY

    https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Vaafty1YK6M
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  198. AP says:
    @Dmitry
    Apologies to others for offtopic, but since we have this discussion last week with you and Gerard.

    New article is published in Israeli English media about offshoring in Ukraine.

    I'm not economist, but I can't see how this would not be bad for Israel. (It would be much better for Israel, if they coerced instead currently unemployed Haredim and Arabs for these jobs, and keep the income inside its country).

    At the same time, according to this article, you were right that salaries can be $2,500 per month in Ukraine. Probably Ukraine's economy has some optimism in this area.


    15,000 Ukrainians are working for Israeli high-tech companies. The Ukrainian government wants to increase that to 150,000.
    ...

    According to figures from the government in Kiev, 15,000 Ukrainian computer programmers and software engineers are already employed by the Israeli high-tech industry. The Ukrainians' main mission is to multiply this number by 10 to 150,000 in the coming years - no less than that.
    ...

    In recent years, Ukraine has become a symbol of outsourcing in Israeli high tech. A few of the large companies have already been hiring employees there for years, and these companies have also been joined by smaller startups. In a country in which the average wage is $220 a month, a software engineer getting paid $2,500 a month becomes a wealthy man. For an Israeli company, this is a quarter or less of what it pays local software personnel.

     

    https://en.globes.co.il/en/article-ukraine-offers-lowcost-hightech-professionals-1001247913

    Of course. This is very obvious in Lviv – there are tons of restaurants and cafes, and recently luxury stores have popped up (there is now Armani, for example). Shoppers aren’t crooks or some sort of oligarchs but well-paid people in this industry. And there are enough of them to support such consumption.

    They just started building this in Lviv:

    https://itcluster.lviv.ua/en/u-lvovi-ctartuye-budivnytstvo-it-park-vartistyu-160-mln-dolariv/

    Read More
    • Replies: @Felix Keverich

    Of course. This is very obvious in Lviv – there are tons of restaurants and cafes, and recently luxury stores have popped up (there is now Armani, for example). Shoppers aren’t crooks or some sort of oligarchs but well-paid people in this industry. And there are enough of them to support such consumption.
     
    There may be some share of crooks and bandits as well. This is the Ukraine. ;)
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  199. German_reader was saying that I haven’t been talking enough about Trump and American politics lately. So I will attempt to somewhat rectify that now.

    https://www.resetera.com/threads/paul-manafort-no-deal.58969/

    Okay, this ties in a few things: 1. The Mueller/Trump saga 2. American liberals obsession with Russia and 3. Something Felix touched on earlier: the tendency of American rank and file liberals to be totally retarded

    What’s happening is Manafort, through his lawyer, today came out and said that he will never cooperate with Mueller under any circumstances, ever. One of the reasons Manafort is taking this hard line is because Mueller is a total moron who has no case and Manafort rightly expects to beat the charges, either at trial or on appeal.

    However, since rank and file American left wingers are retarded they have a different explanation: Manafort is refusing to flip because he knows that if he does so that Putin will kill him (Manafort) along with his entire family. Manafort has been doing Putin’s dirty work for decades and Putin will never let that info come to life.

    I would like to remind people that Manafort’s lobbying career was largely for Ukraine, not Russia but apparently American Leftists agree with the Russian nationalist position that the two are actually the same thing.

    Definitely check out the thread. As a general rule I would recommend that you spend at least 3 hours a day reading ResetEra.

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    • Replies: @German_reader

    I would recommend that you spend at least 3 hours a day reading ResetEra.
     
    Isn't that some kind of politically correct gaming forum (which seems to be surprisingly common btw, many gamers are SJWs)? I suppose liberal gamers are even dumber than non-gamer liberals.
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  200. Druid says:
    @dfordoom

    Far more important are the social and cultural values, which also informs how much you want to educate your girls.
     
    To be honest our problem in the West is too much education for everybody. Education is one of those things that is good in moderation. Too much can be extremely harmful. Higher education should only be available to a very small minority who actually need it.

    Too much education is bad for everybody but it's especially damaging to women. Women do not need higher education. Society does not need women with higher education. Our obsession with fairness is destroying us. We might have a an education system that is fair and offers equal opportunities to women but how much good does that do us if our society is going down the toilet because we've ceased to reproduce?

    Survival matters more than fairness. Survival will require some very drastic decisions (such as massive cuts to education spending). That isn't going to happen through the ballot box.

    As a father of two daughters, I disagree though I get your point

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  201. Bliss says:
    @DFH
    Those were pretty terrible things, done to Africans by other Africans not ordered or supervised by Europeans

    http://thealternativehypothesis.org/index.php/2016/07/24/mythologies-about-leopolds-congo-free-state/

    Those were pretty terrible things, done to Africans by other Africans not ordered or supervised by Europeans

    Unfortunately for you and your ilk there are enough good people in Africa, Asia, Europe and the Americas who will make sure your lies, cover ups and fake histories will not stand:

    http://www.hartford-hwp.com/archives/35/181.html

    Leopold’s “rubber terror” raised a lot of hairs in Britain, America and continental Europe (particularly between the years 1900-1908). But while they were condemning Leopold’s barbarity, his accusers were committing much the same atrocities against Africans elsewhere on the continent.

    Hochschild cannot fathom how the reform movement in Europe focused exclusively on Leopold’s Congo when “if you reckon [the] mass murder by the percentage of the population killed”, the Germans did as much in Namibia, if not worse, than Leopold in Congo.

    What happened in the Congo was indeed mass murder on a vast scale, but the sad truth is that the men who carried it out for Leopold were no more murderous than many Europeans then at work or at war elsewhere in Africa. Conrad said it best [in his book, Heart of Darkness, based on the brutalities in the Congo]: ‘All Europe contributed to the making of Kurtz’.”

    Hochshild believes that Kurtz was Leon Rom in real life. Rom was born in Mons in Belgium. Poorly educated, he joined the Belgian army aged 16. Nine years later, aged 25 in 1886, he found himself in the Congo in search of adventure. He became district commissioner at Matadi and was later put in charge of the African troops in Leopold’s murderous Force Publique army in the Congo.

    Rom’s brutality knew no bounds. It was such that even the white people working with him were shocked to their boots.

    When Rom was station chief at Stanley Falls,” Hochshild reveals, “the governor general sent a report back to Brussels about some agents who ‘have the reputation of having killed masses of people for petty reasons’. He mentions Rom’s notorious flower bed rigged with human heads, and then adds: ‘He kept a gallows permanently erected in front of the station’.”

    Morel’s campaign in Europe and America finally forced Britain to ask its consul in Congo, the Irish patriot Sir Roger Casement, to make an investigative trip all over Congo and report. Casement’s findings were so damning that the Foreign Office in London was too embarrassed that it could not publish the original…..Casement’s description of “sliced hands and penises was far more graphic and forceful than the British government had expected”.

    Read More
    • Replies: @DFH
    Here are a few quotations from Casement's report

    The open selling of slaves and the canoe convoys, which once navigated the Upper vClokngo, have everywhere disappeared. No act of the Congo State Government has i perhaps produced more laudable results than the vigorous suppression of this widespread evil
     
    He describes the native soldiers carrying out the mutilation without the Belgians' knowledge

    On my leaving Bongandanga on the 3rd September I returned down the Lopori and Lolongo Rivers, arriving at J**. The following day, about 9 at night, some natives of the neighbourhood came to see me, bringing with them a lad of about 16 years of age whose right hand was missing. His name was X and his relatives said they came from K**, a village on the opposite side of the river some few miles away. As it was late at night there was some difficulty in obtaining a translation of their statements, but I gathered that X's hand had been cut off in
    K** by a sentry of the La Lulanga Company, who was, or had been, quartered there. They said that this sentry, at the time that he had mutilated X, had also shot dead one of the chief m.en of the town. X, in addition to this mutilation, had been shot in the shoulder blade, and, as a consequence, was deformed. On being shot it was said he had fallen down insensible, and the sentry had then cut off his hand, alleging that he would take it to the Director of the Companv at Mampoko. When I asked if this had been done the natives replied that they believed that the hand had only been carried part of the way to Mampoko and then thrown away. They did not think the white man had seen it.
     

    They brought with them three individuals who had been shockingly wounded by gunfire, two men and a very small boy, not more than 6 years of age, and a fourth—a hoy child of 6 or 7—whose right hand was cut off at the wrist. One of the men, who had been shot through the arm. declared that he was Y of L '**, a village situated some miles away. He declared that he had been shot as I saw under the following circumstances : the soldiers had entered his town, he alleged, to enforce the due fulfilment of the rubber tax due by the community. These men had tied him him up and said that unless he paid 1,000 brass rods to them they would shoot him. Having no rods to give them they had shot him through the arm and had left him. The soldiers implicated he said were four whose names were given me. They were, he believed, all employés of the La Lulanga Company and had come from Mampoko. At the time when he, Y, was shot through the arm the Chief of his town came up and begged the soldiers not to hurt him, but one of them, a man called Z, shot the Chief dead. No white man was with these sentries, or soldiers, at the time.
     
    Such massacres were common among tribes in the region before Europeans arrived, (this is from another part of the report) ;

    Le Révérend McKittrick, parlant des luttes meurtrières entre indigènes, dit ses efforts d'autrefois auprès des Chefs pour pacifier la contrée: "•/'."".. Nous leur dîmes qu'à l'avenir nous ne laisserions plus passer par notre station aucun homme armé de lance ou de couteau. Notre Dieu était un Dieu de paix, et nous, ses enfants, nous ne pouvions supporter de voir nos frères noirs se couper et se blesser l'un l'autre (cutting and stabbing each other)."5 "Lorsque j'allais çà et là dans la rivière, dit un autre missionnaire, on me montrait les endroits de la rive d'où avaient coutume de partir les guerriers pour capturer les canots et les hommes. Il était affligeant d'entendre décrire les terribles massacres qui avaient lieu d'habitude à la mort d'un grand Chef. Un trou profond était creusé en terre, où des vingtaines d'esclaves jetés après que leurs têtes avaient été coupées (after having their heads cut off), et'sur cette horrible pile, on plaçait le cadavre du Chef couronnant ce carnage humain indescriptible."6 Et les missionnaires constatent combien encore en ces jours actuels les indigènes reviennent aisément à leurs anciennes coutumes.
     
    Of course there were some sadists who were attracted to it and encouraged the cruelty of the natives, but the cases of mutilation Casement describes were mostly carried out by natives on their own initiative, in accordance with their customs. The only way to blame Europeans for it is if you consider that Africans have no agency of their own.
    , @Thorfinnsson
    The link DFH shared specifically rebutted Hochschild (a mischling, incidentally).

    I response, you quoted...Hochschild?

    Are you retarded?

    Rhetorical. Nigger.
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  202. @reiner Tor
    OT

    J-20 production is slow to take off either.

    http://www.atimes.com/article/plas-j-20-fighters-years-away-from-mass-production/

    Asia times is trash. In fact all mainstream media reporting on Chinese military affairs is mostly trash, particularly when they quote Pinkov (aka Andrei Chang) who is a running joke in some circles. Even when they get their facts right, rare enough, they draw completely nonsensical conclusions. It’s like how the Western media uses Julia Ioffe or Masha Gessen to write about all things Russia which I’m sure our host Mr. Karlin can give you an earful about that. Even the so-called think tanks are trash because they are filled with time filling interns and pomo-globo types who for obvious reasons aren’t as smart as they think they are. Even worse, if the author of the piece is a woman, it should be automatically treated as fish wrap.

    The only place to get up to the minute info about Chinese military in English is oddly enough on social media. Andreas Rupprecht literally wrote the book on the Chinese Air Force. I do mean literally, Harpia published his tour de force overview of the PLAAF circa 2012, a new updated book on Chinese naval aviation, and an updated edition of the PLAAF circa 2018. You will find nothing better written in English on the subject. Another source is Henri Kenhmann who also writes about the Chinese military, though he is more interested in naval affairs. He I believe works/worked for Airbus and spent several years in China working on the A320 production and actually has first experience with the Chinese aerospace industry, or at least the civilian sector. Either case, both bring the all attention to detail and autistic passion for their subject of interest that middle aged European men can muster. Unfortunately Henri mostly writes in French though, but Andreas is easily accessible in English in addition to German.

    Read More
    • Replies: @reiner Tor
    So what is the current status of the plane? How many have they built and how many are they building yearly?
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  203. Bliss says:
    @iffen
    I think that Thor is trolling us, even so, I see a lot of daylight between him and GR.

    Germans didn’t do anything in Africa that other nationalities didn’t do.

    It’s okay to be an African partisan, but you really should understand that deadly and mortal conflict between groups is who we (humans) are. Look at the centuries of conflict in Europe (still ongoing), look at the Hutus and Tutsis, look at the Nuer and Dinka, look at Bantu speakers against non-Bantu speakers, look anywhere in the world at any time in history including today.

    I think that Thor is trolling us

    Come on, Thugfinnson is so obviously a psychopath. Clever and knowledgeable but with zero moral compass. Stereotypically evil.

    Read More
    • Replies: @Daniel Chieh
    You mean, he's like Victor Von Doom? He sounds even cooler than before now.
    , @reiner Tor
    He’s trolling. I don’t think any of the commenters are psychopathic here.
    , @Dmitry
    Thorfinson? As far as we know him from text on a screen, he seems one of the more liberal and entertaining people in the forum.

    His negative rapport with Africans is seeming uncivilized and primitive, but probably more just of a normal, stereotypical American viewpoint, like in Greasy William who has the same comments about Latinos and Iranians.

    American has a schizophrenia here - a culture based around genocide and hatred between its constituent ethnicities, with a history lynching each other, but where then other Americans arrive and covering up their mutual hatreds, and propagandize the other countries of the world about how they all love each other, and that it's a multiracial paradise where everyone harmoniously studies physics together as in latest Spiderman film.

    Latter is a beautiful ideal, but just an ideal (and propagandized as if it's a reality of America around the world). Probably more subtle reality of American society, is that the competition between races is part of the secret of the industrious personality of the American people.

    -


    Atmosphere is actually like in Karlin's multicultural forum.

    https://youtu.be/5u4Z9DPaEog?t=1m46s
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  204. @dfordoom

    Far more important are the social and cultural values, which also informs how much you want to educate your girls.
     
    To be honest our problem in the West is too much education for everybody. Education is one of those things that is good in moderation. Too much can be extremely harmful. Higher education should only be available to a very small minority who actually need it.

    Too much education is bad for everybody but it's especially damaging to women. Women do not need higher education. Society does not need women with higher education. Our obsession with fairness is destroying us. We might have a an education system that is fair and offers equal opportunities to women but how much good does that do us if our society is going down the toilet because we've ceased to reproduce?

    Survival matters more than fairness. Survival will require some very drastic decisions (such as massive cuts to education spending). That isn't going to happen through the ballot box.

    I want to agree, but with a caveat. The real problem with education is that it raises the self perceived reproductive status of women to the degree while also damaging their actual reproductive status (a wasted youth and thus beauty). When everyone aspires to live the carefree life of a modern Bourbon, there will be no one to replace us. Elite female fertility has always been very low historically speaking, with huge numbers of elite girls ending up in nunneries without ever having any children at all.

    The problem with female status is that it massively depresses female fertility by restricting their pool of allowed mates to men of even higher status. The problem is that men of higher status doesn’t want a Harvard mba or a Princeton PhD, which women are fooled into believing is actually useful, they want a youthful beautiful feminine wife. So at best you get wasteful credentialism of a woman who spent years in graduate school and never working once they’ve found an even higher status husband while stealing a spot from a man or at worse you get cats for grandchildren.

    Read More
    • Replies: @Twinkie

    men of higher status doesn’t want a Harvard mba or a Princeton PhD
     
    It’s like you never heard of the rise of cognitively assortative marriages in the U.S.
    , @Pericles

    men of higher status doesn’t want a Harvard mba or a Princeton PhD

     

    When we do, we hire one.
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  205. Bliss says:
    @German_reader

    Well, he put a smiley there when suggesting I engage with that evil pomposity Thugfinnson.
     
    It was a joke, but you don't seem to have much of a sense of humour.
    Regarding German colonial atrocities, sure, some of them were among the more extreme colonialist crimes. The continuity thesis (colonial atrocities of imperial Germany as precursor and inspiration for Nazi policies) is controversial though, and the entire issue is highly politicized. In any case, I find your attempt at guilt-tripping tiresome. There's no way colonial atrocities of more than century ago could with reason be seen as legitimating African mass immigration to Europe today, unless you're thinking in categories of payback and vengeance.

    It was a joke, but you don’t seem to have much of a sense of humour.

    Actually I have a great sense of humor. I just can’t relate to the “sense of humor” of your ilk. I imagine you and the Thug are akin to the humorous guy in the second picture in the link below from Leopold’s Congo which I can’t post for obvious reasons:

    https://africanquarters.com/forgotten-european-atrocities-in-africa/

    Read More
    • Replies: @German_reader
    I don't think I've ever written something that would indicate I want to oppress or subjugate Africans. I just don't want millions of them coming to Europe.
    Your persistent attempts at painting me as some latter-day colonialist/Nazi are missing the point and show that you're unwilling or unable to discuss the issue in good faith.
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  206. @Duke of Qin
    Asia times is trash. In fact all mainstream media reporting on Chinese military affairs is mostly trash, particularly when they quote Pinkov (aka Andrei Chang) who is a running joke in some circles. Even when they get their facts right, rare enough, they draw completely nonsensical conclusions. It's like how the Western media uses Julia Ioffe or Masha Gessen to write about all things Russia which I'm sure our host Mr. Karlin can give you an earful about that. Even the so-called think tanks are trash because they are filled with time filling interns and pomo-globo types who for obvious reasons aren't as smart as they think they are. Even worse, if the author of the piece is a woman, it should be automatically treated as fish wrap.

    The only place to get up to the minute info about Chinese military in English is oddly enough on social media. Andreas Rupprecht literally wrote the book on the Chinese Air Force. I do mean literally, Harpia published his tour de force overview of the PLAAF circa 2012, a new updated book on Chinese naval aviation, and an updated edition of the PLAAF circa 2018. You will find nothing better written in English on the subject. Another source is Henri Kenhmann who also writes about the Chinese military, though he is more interested in naval affairs. He I believe works/worked for Airbus and spent several years in China working on the A320 production and actually has first experience with the Chinese aerospace industry, or at least the civilian sector. Either case, both bring the all attention to detail and autistic passion for their subject of interest that middle aged European men can muster. Unfortunately Henri mostly writes in French though, but Andreas is easily accessible in English in addition to German.

    So what is the current status of the plane? How many have they built and how many are they building yearly?

    Read More
    • Replies: @Duke of Qin
    Current status seems to be low rate initial production as of the beginning of 2017. Keep in mind that PLAAF current funding only allows for about the introduction of 50-60 tactical aircraft per year average out over the last decade or so don't expect USAF numbers with their $700 billion budget.

    Aircraft inventory estimates are derived from open source photography of aircraft, location of photographs, and coded bort numbers which are sequential and identify unit. Current active inventory of J-20 is at a minimum 0f 20 spread out across the 9th, 172nd, and 176th brigades. Gaps in photographed aircraft generally means that an airframe exists, its just that it has yet to be captured in a photo. As two of these are combat training brigades, it is presently unknown just what size a J-20 brigade/regiment will ultimately be as this depends on both aircraft and role. For example a J-10 Air Force brigade is 28 aircraft (with 4 twin seaters), while a J-11 comprises only 24 aircraft when fully equipped. For the PLANAF, their J-10 and J-11 brigades/regiments are identical at 24 aircraft a piece. Su-30 and strike aircraft units are generally smaller still at 20.
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  207. @Bliss

    I think that Thor is trolling us
     
    Come on, Thugfinnson is so obviously a psychopath. Clever and knowledgeable but with zero moral compass. Stereotypically evil.

    You mean, he’s like Victor Von Doom? He sounds even cooler than before now.

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  208. @Thorfinnsson
    People did this before birth control existed. Not like pulling out is terribly challenging (and yes, contrary to myth, it is fairly effective with some caveats). The difference is that birth control makes the process effortless and less subject to "accidents" which are inevitable in romance for various reasons.

    Not like pulling out is terribly challenging (and yes, contrary to myth, it is fairly effective with some caveats).

    I can confirm. It worked with me fine for several years. It’s way more comfortable than a condom.

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  209. @Bliss

    I think that Thor is trolling us
     
    Come on, Thugfinnson is so obviously a psychopath. Clever and knowledgeable but with zero moral compass. Stereotypically evil.

    He’s trolling. I don’t think any of the commenters are psychopathic here.

    Read More
    • Replies: @Thorfinnsson
    Not trolling other than that I delight in attacking these we wuz kangz retards.

    As a European you might not get it.

    In America, because of a baffling high level policy decision to worship negroes, we've watched blacks destroy city after city. A cursory observation of blacks outside of America confirms that they're toxic and destructive just about everywhere.

    I'm not supportive of pan-nationalism which I consider a completely cucked idea. Africa has a lot of resources worth exploiting. Why should we let those resources go to waste?

    The objection to this idea is that it creates a danger of future liberals agitating for the "human rights" of lawless Africans, but my position is that anyone with leftist inclinations should be shot to begin with.

    Alternatively, perhaps we could create a meme that they're not human. They might be more different from us than coyotes are from wolves. Hard to whinge about "dehumanization" (using this term should result in an immediate trip to a concentration camp) if SCIENCE no longer considers the target in question human.

    Bliss of course considers this all very eeeeeeevil since the blacks are like low-grade Jews. The only thing they care about is if it's good for the black ego (they're too stupid to care about actual outcomes, only feelings matter).

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  210. @AP

    I don’t think active numbers can be so high, e.g. 713 for these T-64.
     
    Why? Sources typically state that Ukraine has about 2,200 tanks:

    https://www.globalfirepower.com/country-military-strength-detail.asp?country_id=ukraine

    This large number obviously includes ones in storage.

    Here is a detailed article from 2017 describing Ukraine's military improvements:

    https://www.osw.waw.pl/sites/default/files/prace_66_ang_best_army_ukraine_net.pdf

    On page 27 it lists tanks and armored combat vehicles together. From 2014-2017 about 140 were built and 8,000 were repaired (some were repaired more than once). It doesn't list tanks separately, but the number of 800 in active service would be reasonable given such figures.

    We know of this T-84 they boast about though, there’s only about a dozen actually built.
     
    Correct. Modernizing and repairing 10 T-64s costs as much as building one T-84. Ukraine has a couple thousand or so of T-64s in storage so it has mostly been modernizing them.

    Modernized T-64 loook pretty cool it has to be admitted.
     
    During the strong Europe tank challenge in 2017 Ukraine's team used a modernized T-64 and came in 5th place out of six teams, beating the Polish group with its Leopard 2A5:

    https://www.sofmag.com/watch-the-strong-europe-tank-challenge-see-how-u-s-scored/

    In 2018 Ukraine used a T-84 and came in last place, due partially to the field conditions but also due to glitches wit the tank itself. So until these problems are solved, it's probably good that Ukraine has about 700 modernized T-64s and only a dozen or so T-84s.

    A thousand battle tanks are not that many. Yes, Hungary currently has just 34 (and in reality just a dozen or so), but in the 1980s we had over a thousand, mostly the then already dated T-55, but we also had the then kinda modern T-72. Based on that, I’m sure that a country the size of Hungary could easily field hundreds of modern battle tanks, so Ukraine must be able to do so as well.

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  211. @Jaakko Raipala

    The main cause of low birthrates is women’s education and gender equality. In wealthy societies, women (and many men) just don’t want kids no matter how much support they’re given. So the problem is more cultural than anything else.
     
    Such nonsense. Women have much higher desired child counts than men do. If it was entirely up to women's choice, every industrialized country would be well above replacement, if it was up entirely up to men's choice, birth rates would be even lower.

    Come on. Think of the real-world couples that you know. In how many cases did children appear because the woman demanded them from a reluctant man and in how many the opposite? Women want children much more than men do and the fertility collapse happens when sex without children becomes available to men.

    The main problem with women flooding education is that it leads to a situation where women move to cities at a much higher rate and there's a permanent gender imbalance in favor of men in the countryside and women in the cities. Women prefer the fields that are taught in giant universities while men are much more likely to want a trade or to start a business. Besides, the current inflation of educational status means that we now have tons of women with worthless liberal arts degrees who think they're "higher status" than mechanics or plumbers and women still want to date up.

    Think of the real-world couples that you know. In how many cases did children appear because the woman demanded them from a reluctant man and in how many the opposite?

    Ah, you mean the first child? It’s obviously part of a woman’s strategy to chain the guy to herself. The reason those guys are reluctant is because they want to keep their options open. But I actually don’t know many couples where that was the case. I know a few where the husband seemed relatively uninterested in the project, mostly in the sense of “children are good, but I don’t care so much, and won’t do a stroke of work about it.” That’s of course not active opposition.

    I know a couple where the wife wanted a second child but the husband opposed, and so they only have one child. I know two couples where the husband wanted more children but they only have one child because the wife doesn’t want the discomfort of childbearing. I also know a couple where the husband said (to me, years before meeting his wife, and he’s still saying that) that he wanted 2-4 children, more than four being too many and less than two too few. They have two children, because his wife said in no uncertain terms that she won’t give birth to more children.

    I also know a guy who had a divorced mother girlfriend who explicitly ruled out having a second child. (I think it was one of the reasons he broke up with her.)

    It’s obvious that women bear the brunt of the burden of having children. They also get crazy if they have no children, but having just one child is usually enough to prevent that. For guys it just doesn’t matter much, but I don’t think they are usually so strongly opposed to having a second child or further children. It’s simply not that much of a sacrifice for a guy. It’s a sacrifice for the woman, and they often strongly oppose it because of this.

    On the other hand, guys don’t care that much. And they rarely tell distant acquaintances that they want more children (which desire is usually not considered very manly) and especially that their wives prevented them from having more children. People don’t want to advertise being beta.

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    • Replies: @RadicalCenter
    I always wanted four children, and we are so far on track. Was never embarrassed to tell people that’s what I wanted, and still am not embarrassed about it.

    While dating, I found plenty of woman (white Americans) who were not serious about having children at all, let alone at a reasonable age, let alone several children. No sense of urgency, and not even a basic realistic understanding of the relevant science. They were often remarkably cavalier about letting years pass, having been brainwashed that “forty is the new thirty”, which leads of course to many more miscarriages, more birth defects, and more ultimately childless women than should ever occur in a healthy, confident, rational people.

    From my experience and the experience of male friends, I’m not at all convinced that white women generally want children more than white men in the USA these days. Nor that they generally want more children than the men. Would that it were so.

    Of all the stupid things I did while dating, at least I was smart enough never to bother wasting time on women who were obviously too immature and lackadaisical to be counted on to have children and work hard raising them without an attitude.

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  212. Twinkie says:
    @Duke of Qin
    I want to agree, but with a caveat. The real problem with education is that it raises the self perceived reproductive status of women to the degree while also damaging their actual reproductive status (a wasted youth and thus beauty). When everyone aspires to live the carefree life of a modern Bourbon, there will be no one to replace us. Elite female fertility has always been very low historically speaking, with huge numbers of elite girls ending up in nunneries without ever having any children at all.

    The problem with female status is that it massively depresses female fertility by restricting their pool of allowed mates to men of even higher status. The problem is that men of higher status doesn't want a Harvard mba or a Princeton PhD, which women are fooled into believing is actually useful, they want a youthful beautiful feminine wife. So at best you get wasteful credentialism of a woman who spent years in graduate school and never working once they've found an even higher status husband while stealing a spot from a man or at worse you get cats for grandchildren.

    men of higher status doesn’t want a Harvard mba or a Princeton PhD

    It’s like you never heard of the rise of cognitively assortative marriages in the U.S.

    Read More
    • Replies: @reiner Tor
    But I think he has a point.

    Men usually want a physically attractive woman with a nice personality. Being very smart is not terribly important, and having credentials is even less important.

    Assortative mating is the result of being around women of similar status (e.g. meeting your wife while both of you were attending Harvard or while working for the same Big Four consultancy firm etc.), but it’s not something guys actively seek out. Being smart is a nice bonus in a pretty woman, and being credentialed just doesn’t matter.
    , @Pericles

    cognitively assortative marriages

     

    A simple effect of herding together eligible young men and women with similar SAT scores (and, parents hope, similar social status).

    In this sense, getting an MBA could be seen as the hail mary of marriage strategies.
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  213. @Twinkie

    men of higher status doesn’t want a Harvard mba or a Princeton PhD
     
    It’s like you never heard of the rise of cognitively assortative marriages in the U.S.

    But I think he has a point.

    Men usually want a physically attractive woman with a nice personality. Being very smart is not terribly important, and having credentials is even less important.

    Assortative mating is the result of being around women of similar status (e.g. meeting your wife while both of you were attending Harvard or while working for the same Big Four consultancy firm etc.), but it’s not something guys actively seek out. Being smart is a nice bonus in a pretty woman, and being credentialed just doesn’t matter.

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    • Replies: @Twinkie

    Men usually want a physically attractive woman with a nice personality. Being very smart is not terribly important, and having credentials is even less important.
     
    That USED to be the case. Nowadays, intelligent men want their children to be smart, not just beautiful and dumb.

    Classic example: doctors used to marry pretty nurses. Now they marry other doctors (or lawyers).

    Supposedly there is a small correlations between attractiveness and IQ, so it's not like one has to choose between the two. I certainly didn't.
    , @Rosie

    Being smart is a nice bonus in a pretty woman, and being credentialed just doesn’t matter.
     
    They're not getting credentials in order to impress men, they're doing it to safeguard their future, because they consider men unreliable as providers, and not without very good reason.
    , @iffen
    For somebody worried about feeding starving Africans because that only produces more starving Africans, you don't seem to know much about heredity.
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  214. @reiner Tor
    So what is the current status of the plane? How many have they built and how many are they building yearly?

    Current status seems to be low rate initial production as of the beginning of 2017. Keep in mind that PLAAF current funding only allows for about the introduction of 50-60 tactical aircraft per year average out over the last decade or so don’t expect USAF numbers with their $700 billion budget.

    Aircraft inventory estimates are derived from open source photography of aircraft, location of photographs, and coded bort numbers which are sequential and identify unit. Current active inventory of J-20 is at a minimum 0f 20 spread out across the 9th, 172nd, and 176th brigades. Gaps in photographed aircraft generally means that an airframe exists, its just that it has yet to be captured in a photo. As two of these are combat training brigades, it is presently unknown just what size a J-20 brigade/regiment will ultimately be as this depends on both aircraft and role. For example a J-10 Air Force brigade is 28 aircraft (with 4 twin seaters), while a J-11 comprises only 24 aircraft when fully equipped. For the PLANAF, their J-10 and J-11 brigades/regiments are identical at 24 aircraft a piece. Su-30 and strike aircraft units are generally smaller still at 20.

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    • Replies: @songbird
    I may a bit of a Debbie Downer on some forms of military tech, but I think the history of American stealth should be referenced:

    The US has had respectable stealth capability for close to 40 years. In that time it has been used to bomb Iraqis twice, and also Afghanistan, Libya, Yugoslavia. The Nighthawk was used in Panama in 1989, but the canal was given over to the Panamanians in 2000, anyway.

    In summary, it is basically useless. It can be used against 3rd world countries, but with no positive long term effect. They probably would have been better off continuing to manufacture B-52 Bombers which need less maintenance and can carry more ordinance.

    It'd be useless against a nuclear power. At least any with a respectable arsenal like the US and Russia or ballistic submarines. India may be a something joke on that last front, but even I, who am no India-booster, think they will have a few operating soon.
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  215. Twinkie says:
    @reiner Tor
    But I think he has a point.

    Men usually want a physically attractive woman with a nice personality. Being very smart is not terribly important, and having credentials is even less important.

    Assortative mating is the result of being around women of similar status (e.g. meeting your wife while both of you were attending Harvard or while working for the same Big Four consultancy firm etc.), but it’s not something guys actively seek out. Being smart is a nice bonus in a pretty woman, and being credentialed just doesn’t matter.

    Men usually want a physically attractive woman with a nice personality. Being very smart is not terribly important, and having credentials is even less important.

    That USED to be the case. Nowadays, intelligent men want their children to be smart, not just beautiful and dumb.

    Classic example: doctors used to marry pretty nurses. Now they marry other doctors (or lawyers).

    Supposedly there is a small correlations between attractiveness and IQ, so it’s not like one has to choose between the two. I certainly didn’t.

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    • Replies: @Pericles
    Would you have married a homely physician before a pretty nurse?
    , @Daniel Chieh
    It's the Current Year! BTW, there are 52 genders, educate yourself.

    Anyway, that men(even of the Current Year) generally find female high status inelastic or negative to marriage preference is not some grand new discovery. Fairly well documented.
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  216. @AP
    Of course. This is very obvious in Lviv - there are tons of restaurants and cafes, and recently luxury stores have popped up (there is now Armani, for example). Shoppers aren't crooks or some sort of oligarchs but well-paid people in this industry. And there are enough of them to support such consumption.

    They just started building this in Lviv:

    https://itcluster.lviv.ua/en/u-lvovi-ctartuye-budivnytstvo-it-park-vartistyu-160-mln-dolariv/

    Of course. This is very obvious in Lviv – there are tons of restaurants and cafes, and recently luxury stores have popped up (there is now Armani, for example). Shoppers aren’t crooks or some sort of oligarchs but well-paid people in this industry. And there are enough of them to support such consumption.

    There may be some share of crooks and bandits as well. This is the Ukraine. ;)

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  217. @Druid
    IN Iran, decades of sanctions and threat from the US has played a big part, I think. The average Iranian is quite poor. Huge wealth disparity, like the US

    The average Iranian is wealthier than the average Chinese. But they really have more young men, than they know what to do with.

    A younger, more populous China would have been less stable. A less stable China would have been less attractive as a manufacturing hub for Western multinationals. It could have been a very different country, and not in the way Karlin imagines it.

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    • Replies: @A22
    Are you saying that high TFR numbers are bad?
    China has a low unemployment rate, not sure how a bigger youth cohort would have been problematic.
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  218. A22 says:
    @Felix Keverich
    The average Iranian is wealthier than the average Chinese. But they really have more young men, than they know what to do with.

    A younger, more populous China would have been less stable. A less stable China would have been less attractive as a manufacturing hub for Western multinationals. It could have been a very different country, and not in the way Karlin imagines it.

    Are you saying that high TFR numbers are bad?
    China has a low unemployment rate, not sure how a bigger youth cohort would have been problematic.

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    • Replies: @Felix Keverich
    I'm saying that the Chinese communists made the correct decision at the time. People forget how destitute China was: it has yet to catch up with Russia (in GDP per capita) after decades of breakneck growth.
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  219. DFH says:
    @Bliss

    Those were pretty terrible things, done to Africans by other Africans not ordered or supervised by Europeans
     
    Unfortunately for you and your ilk there are enough good people in Africa, Asia, Europe and the Americas who will make sure your lies, cover ups and fake histories will not stand:

    http://www.hartford-hwp.com/archives/35/181.html

    Leopold's "rubber terror" raised a lot of hairs in Britain, America and continental Europe (particularly between the years 1900-1908). But while they were condemning Leopold's barbarity, his accusers were committing much the same atrocities against Africans elsewhere on the continent.

    Hochschild cannot fathom how the reform movement in Europe focused exclusively on Leopold's Congo when "if you reckon [the] mass murder by the percentage of the population killed", the Germans did as much in Namibia, if not worse, than Leopold in Congo.

    "What happened in the Congo was indeed mass murder on a vast scale, but the sad truth is that the men who carried it out for Leopold were no more murderous than many Europeans then at work or at war elsewhere in Africa. Conrad said it best [in his book, Heart of Darkness, based on the brutalities in the Congo]: 'All Europe contributed to the making of Kurtz'."

    Hochshild believes that Kurtz was Leon Rom in real life. Rom was born in Mons in Belgium. Poorly educated, he joined the Belgian army aged 16. Nine years later, aged 25 in 1886, he found himself in the Congo in search of adventure. He became district commissioner at Matadi and was later put in charge of the African troops in Leopold's murderous Force Publique army in the Congo.

    Rom's brutality knew no bounds. It was such that even the white people working with him were shocked to their boots.

    "When Rom was station chief at Stanley Falls," Hochshild reveals, "the governor general sent a report back to Brussels about some agents who 'have the reputation of having killed masses of people for petty reasons'. He mentions Rom's notorious flower bed rigged with human heads, and then adds: 'He kept a gallows permanently erected in front of the station'."

    Morel's campaign in Europe and America finally forced Britain to ask its consul in Congo, the Irish patriot Sir Roger Casement, to make an investigative trip all over Congo and report. Casement's findings were so damning that the Foreign Office in London was too embarrassed that it could not publish the original.....Casement's description of "sliced hands and penises was far more graphic and forceful than the British government had expected".

    Here are a few quotations from Casement’s report

    The open selling of slaves and the canoe convoys, which once navigated the Upper vClokngo, have everywhere disappeared. No act of the Congo State Government has i perhaps produced more laudable results than the vigorous suppression of this widespread evil

    He describes the native soldiers carrying out the mutilation without the Belgians’ knowledge

    On my leaving Bongandanga on the 3rd September I returned down the Lopori and Lolongo Rivers, arriving at J**. The following day, about 9 at night, some natives of the neighbourhood came to see me, bringing with them a lad of about 16 years of age whose right hand was missing. His name was X and his relatives said they came from K**, a village on the opposite side of the river some few miles away. As it was late at night there was some difficulty in obtaining a translation of their statements, but I gathered that X’s hand had been cut off in
    K** by a sentry of the La Lulanga Company, who was, or had been, quartered there. They said that this sentry, at the time that he had mutilated X, had also shot dead one of the chief m.en of the town. X, in addition to this mutilation, had been shot in the shoulder blade, and, as a consequence, was deformed. On being shot it was said he had fallen down insensible, and the sentry had then cut off his hand, alleging that he would take it to the Director of the Companv at Mampoko. When I asked if this had been done the natives replied that they believed that the hand had only been carried part of the way to Mampoko and then thrown away. They did not think the white man had seen it.

    They brought with them three individuals who had been shockingly wounded by gunfire, two men and a very small boy, not more than 6 years of age, and a fourth—a hoy child of 6 or 7—whose right hand was cut off at the wrist. One of the men, who had been shot through the arm. declared that he was Y of L ‘**, a village situated some miles away. He declared that he had been shot as I saw under the following circumstances : the soldiers had entered his town, he alleged, to enforce the due fulfilment of the rubber tax due by the community. These men had tied him him up and said that unless he paid 1,000 brass rods to them they would shoot him. Having no rods to give them they had shot him through the arm and had left him. The soldiers implicated he said were four whose names were given me. They were, he believed, all employés of the La Lulanga Company and had come from Mampoko. At the time when he, Y, was shot through the arm the Chief of his town came up and begged the soldiers not to hurt him, but one of them, a man called Z, shot the Chief dead. No white man was with these sentries, or soldiers, at the time.

    Such massacres were common among tribes in the region before Europeans arrived, (this is from another part of the report) ;

    Le Révérend McKittrick, parlant des luttes meurtrières entre indigènes, dit ses efforts d’autrefois auprès des Chefs pour pacifier la contrée: “•/’.””.. Nous leur dîmes qu’à l’avenir nous ne laisserions plus passer par notre station aucun homme armé de lance ou de couteau. Notre Dieu était un Dieu de paix, et nous, ses enfants, nous ne pouvions supporter de voir nos frères noirs se couper et se blesser l’un l’autre (cutting and stabbing each other).”5 “Lorsque j’allais çà et là dans la rivière, dit un autre missionnaire, on me montrait les endroits de la rive d’où avaient coutume de partir les guerriers pour capturer les canots et les hommes. Il était affligeant d’entendre décrire les terribles massacres qui avaient lieu d’habitude à la mort d’un grand Chef. Un trou profond était creusé en terre, où des vingtaines d’esclaves jetés après que leurs têtes avaient été coupées (after having their heads cut off), et’sur cette horrible pile, on plaçait le cadavre du Chef couronnant ce carnage humain indescriptible.”6 Et les missionnaires constatent combien encore en ces jours actuels les indigènes reviennent aisément à leurs anciennes coutumes.

    Of course there were some sadists who were attracted to it and encouraged the cruelty of the natives, but the cases of mutilation Casement describes were mostly carried out by natives on their own initiative, in accordance with their customs. The only way to blame Europeans for it is if you consider that Africans have no agency of their own.

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    • Replies: @songbird

    The only way to blame Europeans for it is if you consider that Africans have no agency of their own.
     
    Some people blame the Belgians for the Rwandan Genocides, which I think is really quite remarkable. Breathtaking - almost. Externalizing the blame makes perfect sense for the Rwandans, but is rather shocking when whites do it.
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  220. Pericles says:
    @Duke of Qin
    I want to agree, but with a caveat. The real problem with education is that it raises the self perceived reproductive status of women to the degree while also damaging their actual reproductive status (a wasted youth and thus beauty). When everyone aspires to live the carefree life of a modern Bourbon, there will be no one to replace us. Elite female fertility has always been very low historically speaking, with huge numbers of elite girls ending up in nunneries without ever having any children at all.

    The problem with female status is that it massively depresses female fertility by restricting their pool of allowed mates to men of even higher status. The problem is that men of higher status doesn't want a Harvard mba or a Princeton PhD, which women are fooled into believing is actually useful, they want a youthful beautiful feminine wife. So at best you get wasteful credentialism of a woman who spent years in graduate school and never working once they've found an even higher status husband while stealing a spot from a man or at worse you get cats for grandchildren.

    men of higher status doesn’t want a Harvard mba or a Princeton PhD

    When we do, we hire one.

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  221. @Dmitry
    Demographers seem to write a lot of papers about Israel, which answer some kind of questions we talk about.

    https://pdfs.semanticscholar.org/b59e/5cde0d660f36ba97a129a533fddc2ee8500a.pdf

    Quotes from this 2004 article:

    Immigrant women to Israel in the 1950s from North African and Asian countries experienced fertility decreases towards the veteran population whereas immigrant women from European countries in the same period experienced an increase in fertility towards the norm. Friedlander & Goldscheider (1978) attribute the changes in the fertility of immigrants mainly to economic conditions and furthermore, Friedlander et al (1980) found that socio-economic status, rather than cultural differences, is the determining factor of fertility decline amongst immigrants from Asia and Africa. Immigrants who were more exposed to elements of socioeconomic change in Israel, those who married after immigration or the more educated controlled their fertility through both spacing and stopping. However, the less educated and those married prior to immigration employed only stopping. In another study, it was found that immigrant women from Asia and Africa desired smaller families than their husbands. However, due to the prevalent gender power relations amongst such immigrants, women are not usually the reproductive decision makers.
     
    Russian-speaking immigrants of 1970s converged in behaviour.

    Sabatello (1992,1995) examined the fertility and abortion patterns of immigrants from the FSU who immigrated to Israel in the 1970s. The immigrants in their initial phase of immigration did not experience any significant change in their fertility but by the early 1990s their fertility was only 10% lower than that of Israeli Jewish women yet 50% higher than that of Jews in the USSR. Despite this, he found that even after 10 to 15 years exposure to Israeli family planning patterns, immigrants continued to use abortion as a means to control their fertility. However, although their abortion application rates were 26% higher than the average Israeli Jewish woman, the rates were significantly lower than those prevailing in the Soviet Union at the time. Interestingly, these immigrants preserved the pattern of early childbearing, followed by stopping rather than delaying childbearing
     
    Jews - even lower fertility rates in Soviet Union than non-Jews in Soviet Union, reaching fertility rate of 0.8 in early 1990s.

    Jewish women, in both the Ukraine and Russia have even lower fertility rates than those prevalent in the general population – in 1979 the Jewish fertility rate was about half that of the general population (Kostantinov, 1991). Between 1988-1989 and 1993- 1994, the TFR of Russian Jewish women fell by 46% from 1.5 to 0.8 (lower than the overall urban TFR and lower even than overall TFR of Moscow and St. Petersburg) (Tolts, 1997).
     

    The low fertility rate of the FSU is surprising given the high marriage rate. Prior to the 1990s, the prevalence of marriage was high and the mean age of marriage was low. During the 1990s, the marriage rates have decreased although the mean age of marriage has remained stable, indicating that people are not simply postponing marriage (Micevska, 2002).
    ...
    Abortion is of particular importance when discussing the fertility behaviour of FSU immigrants, as the abortion rate in the FSU is particularly high (Paltiel et al, 1997; Popov, 1991). The FSU is the only country to have achieved low fertility with the use of abortion as the main form of birth control, with no analogous developed country (Popov, 1991), apart from those Eastern European countries in the Soviet sphere of influence. The only easily accessible method was induced abortion, the principal means of fertility regulation (Scherbov & van Vianen, 2002). Reliable imported contraceptives were limited and expensive and other contraceptives, Soviet made or imported from East European countries, were unreliable and of poor quality (Amir et al, 1997). On the other hand, abortion was available using local equipment and personnel with no need for imported goods and available without charge (Popov, 1991). Abortion was devoid of the values and the controversy present in other countries (Remmenick, 1993; Amir et al, 1997), being regarded simply as an unpleasant medical procedure and found acceptable by the vast majority of Russian women (Bystydzienski, 1989).
     
    Contraception use maybe less relevant there.


    Israeli Jewish society is also relatively conservative regarding extra-marital childbearing. In 2000 only 2.8% of all births were to never-married women. Although many Jewish women cohabit prior to marriage, marriage is still the dominant framework within which childbearing occurs. Abortion behaviour amongst Jewish women is similar to Western Europe in terms of the rates (the total abortion rate in 1999 was 0.45 abortions per woman). However, the marital status makeup is more similar to Eastern European countries (Amir & Benjamin, 1997) and the percentage of births aborted is less than other developed countries due to the higher fertility rates. Data on contraceptive use in Israel is very hard to come by. The prevailing fertility rates, along with the abortion and marriage rates, indicate widespread use of contraception, particularly amongst secular Jews.
     
    Diagram discussing different populations inside Israel. So with people from Soviet Union, the slightly earlier childbirth age. (Same as in Russia ).

    https://i.imgur.com/l2Zqj64.jpg

    Ethiopian fertility rate falling in 1990s Israel, but FSU immigrants not much rising.

    https://i.imgur.com/G56vYgd.jpg

    Yeah, but they don’t show- why?

    I would say that it is Zionism, or Jewish nationalism as the prime motivator for higher than average fertility among relatively well-off secular Jews. Demographic marathon with Muslims, that’s it.

    Zionism is, contrary to Jewish and antisemitic myths, a typical 19th C national ideology from central & eastern Europe. So, various orthodox religionists may have higher fertility because they’re, basically, pre-modern; on the other hand, fertile Israeli Jews need not be religious nor patriarchally backward.

    Nationalism & ethnic claustrophobia (sea of Arabs around them) are more than enough to explain this anomaly.

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  222. Pericles says:
    @Twinkie

    men of higher status doesn’t want a Harvard mba or a Princeton PhD
     
    It’s like you never heard of the rise of cognitively assortative marriages in the U.S.

    cognitively assortative marriages

    A simple effect of herding together eligible young men and women with similar SAT scores (and, parents hope, similar social status).

    In this sense, getting an MBA could be seen as the hail mary of marriage strategies.

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  223. Pericles says:
    @Twinkie

    Men usually want a physically attractive woman with a nice personality. Being very smart is not terribly important, and having credentials is even less important.
     
    That USED to be the case. Nowadays, intelligent men want their children to be smart, not just beautiful and dumb.

    Classic example: doctors used to marry pretty nurses. Now they marry other doctors (or lawyers).

    Supposedly there is a small correlations between attractiveness and IQ, so it's not like one has to choose between the two. I certainly didn't.

    Would you have married a homely physician before a pretty nurse?

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    • Replies: @Twinkie

    Would you have married a homely physician before a pretty nurse?
     
    Wrong question. I would have married a chaste woman, be she a doctor or a nurse. And I did.

    But, again, the choice you present is a false one. I might also add that obesity is highly correlated to education in the U.S. Obesity is not attractive, especially on women.
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  224. @Druid
    IN Iran, decades of sanctions and threat from the US has played a big part, I think. The average Iranian is quite poor. Huge wealth disparity, like the US

    [MORE]

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    • Replies: @Greasy William
    What a trash people. I hate Iranians with all my heart and soul and even I was expecting better that that utter garbage in human form. Is the average IQ in Iran like 70? That's what one would think by watching those videos, and those are just the educated urban class. Imagine how stupid the people in the countryside must be.

    Just say no to the Iranian people.

    ...

    Gotta say, I love that Iranian nose, though. It's so aristocratic.
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  225. @A22
    Are you saying that high TFR numbers are bad?
    China has a low unemployment rate, not sure how a bigger youth cohort would have been problematic.

    I’m saying that the Chinese communists made the correct decision at the time. People forget how destitute China was: it has yet to catch up with Russia (in GDP per capita) after decades of breakneck growth.

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  226. @Bliss

    Those were pretty terrible things, done to Africans by other Africans not ordered or supervised by Europeans
     
    Unfortunately for you and your ilk there are enough good people in Africa, Asia, Europe and the Americas who will make sure your lies, cover ups and fake histories will not stand:

    http://www.hartford-hwp.com/archives/35/181.html

    Leopold's "rubber terror" raised a lot of hairs in Britain, America and continental Europe (particularly between the years 1900-1908). But while they were condemning Leopold's barbarity, his accusers were committing much the same atrocities against Africans elsewhere on the continent.

    Hochschild cannot fathom how the reform movement in Europe focused exclusively on Leopold's Congo when "if you reckon [the] mass murder by the percentage of the population killed", the Germans did as much in Namibia, if not worse, than Leopold in Congo.

    "What happened in the Congo was indeed mass murder on a vast scale, but the sad truth is that the men who carried it out for Leopold were no more murderous than many Europeans then at work or at war elsewhere in Africa. Conrad said it best [in his book, Heart of Darkness, based on the brutalities in the Congo]: 'All Europe contributed to the making of Kurtz'."

    Hochshild believes that Kurtz was Leon Rom in real life. Rom was born in Mons in Belgium. Poorly educated, he joined the Belgian army aged 16. Nine years later, aged 25 in 1886, he found himself in the Congo in search of adventure. He became district commissioner at Matadi and was later put in charge of the African troops in Leopold's murderous Force Publique army in the Congo.

    Rom's brutality knew no bounds. It was such that even the white people working with him were shocked to their boots.

    "When Rom was station chief at Stanley Falls," Hochshild reveals, "the governor general sent a report back to Brussels about some agents who 'have the reputation of having killed masses of people for petty reasons'. He mentions Rom's notorious flower bed rigged with human heads, and then adds: 'He kept a gallows permanently erected in front of the station'."

    Morel's campaign in Europe and America finally forced Britain to ask its consul in Congo, the Irish patriot Sir Roger Casement, to make an investigative trip all over Congo and report. Casement's findings were so damning that the Foreign Office in London was too embarrassed that it could not publish the original.....Casement's description of "sliced hands and penises was far more graphic and forceful than the British government had expected".

    The link DFH shared specifically rebutted Hochschild (a mischling, incidentally).

    I response, you quoted…Hochschild?

    Are you retarded?

    Rhetorical. Nigger.

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    • Replies: @Twinkie

    Nigger
     
    I agree that “Bliss” is an aggravating idiot, but that’s not nice and reflects poorly on you.
    , @Bliss

    The link DFH shared specifically rebutted Hochschild
     
    No it didn’t, you imbecile. Lie all you want but your crooked cabal can’t convince anyone outside your demonic circle jerks that the Belgians in Congo were on a humanitarian mission.

    They were just like you: evil.

    Btw, it wasn’t long after the Congo genocide that Europeans started applying the same racial rhetoric they used against africans and mongoloids to each other. Was it?

    The Nazis tried to replicate in Eastern Europe what the Belgians had done in Congo, the Germans in Namibia etc. Slavs became “subhumans” who deserved to be genocided and enslaved by their racial superiors. Jews and Gypsies didn’t deserve to exist at all. You obviously see nothing wrong with that either, right?

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  227. @reiner Tor
    He’s trolling. I don’t think any of the commenters are psychopathic here.

    Not trolling other than that I delight in attacking these we wuz kangz retards.

    As a European you might not get it.

    In America, because of a baffling high level policy decision to worship negroes, we’ve watched blacks destroy city after city. A cursory observation of blacks outside of America confirms that they’re toxic and destructive just about everywhere.

    I’m not supportive of pan-nationalism which I consider a completely cucked idea. Africa has a lot of resources worth exploiting. Why should we let those resources go to waste?

    The objection to this idea is that it creates a danger of future liberals agitating for the “human rights” of lawless Africans, but my position is that anyone with leftist inclinations should be shot to begin with.

    Alternatively, perhaps we could create a meme that they’re not human. They might be more different from us than coyotes are from wolves. Hard to whinge about “dehumanization” (using this term should result in an immediate trip to a concentration camp) if SCIENCE no longer considers the target in question human.

    Bliss of course considers this all very eeeeeeevil since the blacks are like low-grade Jews. The only thing they care about is if it’s good for the black ego (they’re too stupid to care about actual outcomes, only feelings matter).

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    • Replies: @Mr. Hack
    It looks like you're relapsing into the Adolph Hitler mode again. It's a shame, because for a while it looked like you were making some real progress. Since you have such a severe case of these 'evil' spirits , it's clear that you need a more prolonged and steady treatment plan with the old #45. Please get back into it before you start to chew up the local carpets. Okay?
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  228. Twinkie says:
    @Pericles
    Would you have married a homely physician before a pretty nurse?

    Would you have married a homely physician before a pretty nurse?

    Wrong question. I would have married a chaste woman, be she a doctor or a nurse. And I did.

    But, again, the choice you present is a false one. I might also add that obesity is highly correlated to education in the U.S. Obesity is not attractive, especially on women.

    Read More
    • Replies: @Pericles



    That USED to be the case. Nowadays, intelligent men want their children to be smart, not just beautiful and dumb.

     

    Would you have married a homely physician before a pretty nurse?

     

    Wrong question. I would have married a chaste woman, be she a doctor or a nurse. And I did.
     
    I'm sure you get it if you read the above again.

    But, again, the choice you present is a false one.

     

    You claim there are no trade offs required in this respect? Intelligent women are also always beautiful? If so, I would have to disagree.
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  229. Twinkie says:
    @Thorfinnsson
    The link DFH shared specifically rebutted Hochschild (a mischling, incidentally).

    I response, you quoted...Hochschild?

    Are you retarded?

    Rhetorical. Nigger.

    Nigger

    I agree that “Bliss” is an aggravating idiot, but that’s not nice and reflects poorly on you.

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    • Replies: @Bliss
    That’s funny coming from you. Thugfinnson is just a more extreme version of you. Your hatred of blacks, hispanics, jews, indians, liberals etc approaches psychopathic levels as well. As does your pompous vanity and boastfulness.

    Btw, where were you when the sleazy Thug’s french friend, Monsieur Tell, called your people “chink” in this page?
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  230. @Bardon Kaldian
    https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=kuVmtyw9pd4



    https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=EfAwG4kPOLY

    https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Vaafty1YK6M

    What a trash people. I hate Iranians with all my heart and soul and even I was expecting better that that utter garbage in human form. Is the average IQ in Iran like 70? That’s what one would think by watching those videos, and those are just the educated urban class. Imagine how stupid the people in the countryside must be.

    Just say no to the Iranian people.

    Gotta say, I love that Iranian nose, though. It’s so aristocratic.

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    • Replies: @Bardon Kaldian
    Yawn....



    https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=SVk8rU11acE

    https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Gq-G413sl0A
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  231. I’m not supportive of pan-nationalism which I consider a completely cucked idea. Africa has a lot of resources worth exploiting. Why should we let those resources go to waste?

    I agree. Sub saharan African’s are human beings and nobody should violate their basic human rights, but they should not have the right to self determination. They simply cannot handle it.

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  232. @Bardon Kaldian
    In my opinion, it comes down to 2 or three things..

    1. women, as sex/gender, are more members of a kind than they are individuals. The Talmud says something like (quoting from memory): "Women are a separate people"; Michel de Montaigne, a man perhaps completely unacceptable to modern feminist mind said that women were not fully human. He equated them with nature & nature's processes and thought they were lacking in "higher" mental pursuits & non-egoic strivings. Although Montaigne was one of the fathers of modern Western mind- I think he is, along with Shakespeare, the first progenitor of intellectual/spiritual modernity- he remains safely in the tradition of male reductionism re females. If only Indians, Muslims, Chinese, ...could have read him 500 years ago, they would have agreed. Women are mostly determined by their "biology" which does not leave much space for individualism & non-biological creativity.

    2. this leads me to a rather tenuous association: when I compare Hebrew Bible/Old Testament Pentateuch's rendition of females (Leah, Rebecca, Rachel, Sarah, ..) they all seem like sex-procreation machines without individuality; their entire "meaning of life" is to get knocked up & to give birth to as many children as possible.

    On the other hand, ancient Greeks- the best of their writers- treat women as individuals, especially Sophocles & Euripides. But, even a man's man like Aeschylus give us unforgettable Clytemnestra in "Oresteia". Of course, these women were seen from male perspective- but they are ravishing. Is it something in Western mind, that all whites/Europeans have inherited, that pushes for individualism, however intermittently? That gives women potentiality for individualization, which they themselves would not have the power nor will to obtain or fight for? Is individualism "genetically" Western thing, while others assimilate only aspects of it, only in portions they can digest?

    So- generally, women go with the flow.

    It would explain why it is natural that women, wherever they can break free from idiotic routine of housewife life, prefer to have not many children, mostly 1 or 2. This is the same for educated women in France, Italy, Russia, China, Japan, Sweden, Canada,..

    Only Israel seems to be different (unlike US Jews). Why? There, not only religious female nuts, but even Harvard PhD psychologists, pediatricians,... may have 4 or 5 children. How so?

    I guess this is because:

    a) they go with the flow, and in this case it is nationalism & demographic steeplechase with Muslim Arab natives

    b) perhaps even secular Israeli Jewish culture is, basically, not fully Western? Maybe both men & women remain refurbished Mid-Easterners?

    Be as it may, only Western men, from Paris to Petrograd, from London to Ottawa and Buenos Aires, not only let, but actively push individuality on their females. So, low birth rate in the West (Sweden, Poland, ..) is a conflation of male individualism & female wish for an easier, more gratifying life without fussing around too many children who're constantly screaming & nagging. In other corners of earth (Japan, China, modernized Iran,..) it is just a second component.

    While, the natural condition among Africans, most Mestizos & Arab browns seems to remain female procreational animalism as described in the Pentateuch.

    In both cases, women go with the flow, either having post-modern pseudo-individual fun & not having babies or pumping out babies because that's their natural position in the chain of life.

    Your post is full of stupid.

    Two important points:

    a) There is no such thing as a ‘housewife life’. The ‘housewife’ is a perverted post-WWII American invention, enabled by the immense resource surplus of the time. Women have worked as much as men in every human culture in history.

    b) The phrase ‘pumping out babies’ is moronic. Having kids is really hard work. Even getting pregnant is really hard work. (Even if enjoyable.)

    The main reason why birthrates plummet among the modern man is because being a modern man (or woman) is exhausting. Just keeping yourself alive up and to a decent living standard is too hard. Most people don’t have the mental fortitude to add on top of that the hard work of childbirth.

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  233. Bliss says:
    @Twinkie

    Nigger
     
    I agree that “Bliss” is an aggravating idiot, but that’s not nice and reflects poorly on you.

    That’s funny coming from you. Thugfinnson is just a more extreme version of you. Your hatred of blacks, hispanics, jews, indians, liberals etc approaches psychopathic levels as well. As does your pompous vanity and boastfulness.

    Btw, where were you when the sleazy Thug’s french friend, Monsieur Tell, called your people “chink” in this page?

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    • Replies: @iffen
    As does your pompous vanity and boastfulness.


    Vanity and boastfulness are psychopathic? Got any footnotes or references for this?
    , @Twinkie

    Your hatred of blacks, hispanics, jews, indians, liberals etc approaches psychopathic levels as well.
     
    Don't forget the Chinese, the Russians,* homosexuals, "transgender," limp-wristed males who are afraid guns, those with low visuospatial IQ, women, children, cats, cute little bunnies, chewing gum, stuffed animals...

    Btw, where were you when the sleazy Thug’s french friend, Monsieur Tell, called your people “chink” in this page?
     
    Didn't see it. But if I did, I would tell Monsieur Tell that I share his low opinion of the Chinese and that I do not want anymore of them in my country (those who are already in are grandfathered), but that his language is not classy and proper, and may even be indicative of poor breeding and education as well as of a modest IQ... you know, as with you.

    *Reading this blog is definitely lessening my anti-Russian sentiments (and I mean Russian-Russians; I already think well of Russian-Americans).
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  234. Mr. Hack says:
    @Thorfinnsson
    Not trolling other than that I delight in attacking these we wuz kangz retards.

    As a European you might not get it.

    In America, because of a baffling high level policy decision to worship negroes, we've watched blacks destroy city after city. A cursory observation of blacks outside of America confirms that they're toxic and destructive just about everywhere.

    I'm not supportive of pan-nationalism which I consider a completely cucked idea. Africa has a lot of resources worth exploiting. Why should we let those resources go to waste?

    The objection to this idea is that it creates a danger of future liberals agitating for the "human rights" of lawless Africans, but my position is that anyone with leftist inclinations should be shot to begin with.

    Alternatively, perhaps we could create a meme that they're not human. They might be more different from us than coyotes are from wolves. Hard to whinge about "dehumanization" (using this term should result in an immediate trip to a concentration camp) if SCIENCE no longer considers the target in question human.

    Bliss of course considers this all very eeeeeeevil since the blacks are like low-grade Jews. The only thing they care about is if it's good for the black ego (they're too stupid to care about actual outcomes, only feelings matter).

    It looks like you’re relapsing into the Adolph Hitler mode again. It’s a shame, because for a while it looked like you were making some real progress. Since you have such a severe case of these ‘evil’ spirits , it’s clear that you need a more prolonged and steady treatment plan with the old #45. Please get back into it before you start to chew up the local carpets. Okay?

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    • LOL: Thorfinnsson
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  235. @Greasy William
    What a trash people. I hate Iranians with all my heart and soul and even I was expecting better that that utter garbage in human form. Is the average IQ in Iran like 70? That's what one would think by watching those videos, and those are just the educated urban class. Imagine how stupid the people in the countryside must be.

    Just say no to the Iranian people.

    ...

    Gotta say, I love that Iranian nose, though. It's so aristocratic.

    Yawn….

    [MORE]

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    • Replies: @Druid
    Nuts on Yahoo!
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  236. songbird says:
    @DFH
    Here are a few quotations from Casement's report

    The open selling of slaves and the canoe convoys, which once navigated the Upper vClokngo, have everywhere disappeared. No act of the Congo State Government has i perhaps produced more laudable results than the vigorous suppression of this widespread evil
     
    He describes the native soldiers carrying out the mutilation without the Belgians' knowledge

    On my leaving Bongandanga on the 3rd September I returned down the Lopori and Lolongo Rivers, arriving at J**. The following day, about 9 at night, some natives of the neighbourhood came to see me, bringing with them a lad of about 16 years of age whose right hand was missing. His name was X and his relatives said they came from K**, a village on the opposite side of the river some few miles away. As it was late at night there was some difficulty in obtaining a translation of their statements, but I gathered that X's hand had been cut off in
    K** by a sentry of the La Lulanga Company, who was, or had been, quartered there. They said that this sentry, at the time that he had mutilated X, had also shot dead one of the chief m.en of the town. X, in addition to this mutilation, had been shot in the shoulder blade, and, as a consequence, was deformed. On being shot it was said he had fallen down insensible, and the sentry had then cut off his hand, alleging that he would take it to the Director of the Companv at Mampoko. When I asked if this had been done the natives replied that they believed that the hand had only been carried part of the way to Mampoko and then thrown away. They did not think the white man had seen it.
     

    They brought with them three individuals who had been shockingly wounded by gunfire, two men and a very small boy, not more than 6 years of age, and a fourth—a hoy child of 6 or 7—whose right hand was cut off at the wrist. One of the men, who had been shot through the arm. declared that he was Y of L '**, a village situated some miles away. He declared that he had been shot as I saw under the following circumstances : the soldiers had entered his town, he alleged, to enforce the due fulfilment of the rubber tax due by the community. These men had tied him him up and said that unless he paid 1,000 brass rods to them they would shoot him. Having no rods to give them they had shot him through the arm and had left him. The soldiers implicated he said were four whose names were given me. They were, he believed, all employés of the La Lulanga Company and had come from Mampoko. At the time when he, Y, was shot through the arm the Chief of his town came up and begged the soldiers not to hurt him, but one of them, a man called Z, shot the Chief dead. No white man was with these sentries, or soldiers, at the time.
     
    Such massacres were common among tribes in the region before Europeans arrived, (this is from another part of the report) ;

    Le Révérend McKittrick, parlant des luttes meurtrières entre indigènes, dit ses efforts d'autrefois auprès des Chefs pour pacifier la contrée: "•/'."".. Nous leur dîmes qu'à l'avenir nous ne laisserions plus passer par notre station aucun homme armé de lance ou de couteau. Notre Dieu était un Dieu de paix, et nous, ses enfants, nous ne pouvions supporter de voir nos frères noirs se couper et se blesser l'un l'autre (cutting and stabbing each other)."5 "Lorsque j'allais çà et là dans la rivière, dit un autre missionnaire, on me montrait les endroits de la rive d'où avaient coutume de partir les guerriers pour capturer les canots et les hommes. Il était affligeant d'entendre décrire les terribles massacres qui avaient lieu d'habitude à la mort d'un grand Chef. Un trou profond était creusé en terre, où des vingtaines d'esclaves jetés après que leurs têtes avaient été coupées (after having their heads cut off), et'sur cette horrible pile, on plaçait le cadavre du Chef couronnant ce carnage humain indescriptible."6 Et les missionnaires constatent combien encore en ces jours actuels les indigènes reviennent aisément à leurs anciennes coutumes.
     
    Of course there were some sadists who were attracted to it and encouraged the cruelty of the natives, but the cases of mutilation Casement describes were mostly carried out by natives on their own initiative, in accordance with their customs. The only way to blame Europeans for it is if you consider that Africans have no agency of their own.

    The only way to blame Europeans for it is if you consider that Africans have no agency of their own.

    Some people blame the Belgians for the Rwandan Genocides, which I think is really quite remarkable. Breathtaking – almost. Externalizing the blame makes perfect sense for the Rwandans, but is rather shocking when whites do it.

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  237. Rosie says:
    @dfordoom

    The main cause of low birthrates is women’s education and gender equality. In wealthy societies, women (and many men) just don’t want kids no matter how much support they’re given. So the problem is more cultural than anything else.
     
    Absolutely correct.

    Abolishing feminism is not merely desirable, it is essential for long-term survival.

    Abolishing feminism is probably not politically impossible in the West, which is why the West is not going to survive. On the other hand it is politically possible in China.

    Abolishing feminism is not merely desirable, it is essential for long-term survival.

    Weren’t you playing dumb about the forced prostitution solution on another thread?

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    • Replies: @dfordoom


    Abolishing feminism is not merely desirable, it is essential for long-term survival.
     
    Weren’t you playing dumb about the forced prostitution solution on another thread?
     
    The forced prostitution was some fantasy that you came up with.

    In case you haven't noticed, what we currently have in the West is feminism plus lots of exploitation of women (porn, prostitution, hook-up culture, slut culture, etc). It seems that the more feminism a society has the more women get exploited.

    I'd prefer a return to traditional cultural values in which there was actually a lot less exploitation of women. And a lot less exploitation of children.

    I've tried to explain this before but I'll try again. I dislike feminism because it's misogynistic. It's bad for women.
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