The Unz Review - Mobile
A Collection of Interesting, Important, and Controversial Perspectives Largely Excluded from the American Mainstream Media
 TeasersRussian Reaction Blog
Happening: Brazil Elections Round 2
🔊 Listen RSS
Email This Page to Someone

 Remember My Information



=>

Bookmark Toggle AllToCAdd to LibraryRemove from Library • BShow CommentNext New CommentNext New ReplyRead More
ReplyAgree/Disagree/Etc. More... This Commenter This Thread Hide Thread Display All Comments
AgreeDisagreeLOLTroll
These buttons register your public Agreement, Disagreement, Troll, or LOL with the selected comment. They are ONLY available to recent, frequent commenters who have saved their Name+Email using the 'Remember My Information' checkbox, and may also ONLY be used once per hour.
Ignore Commenter Follow Commenter
Search Text Case Sensitive  Exact Words  Include Comments
List of Bookmarks

You can discuss the Brazilian elections in this thread.

Who will Win?

brazil-elections-2018-poll

The polls say that it will almost certainly be Bolsonaro. PredictIt is giving him a 95% chance.

***

Analysis

Brazil seems to be an exception to the pattern in the rest of the world where the richest and most intelligent reject the Far Right.

But is this really true?

sao-paolo

Actually, no! The above shows Section 5 in São Paulo, one of the most elite districts in the capital. As elections analyst Alexander Kireev points out, the more conventional right-wing candidate Neves (i.e. someone without the homophobia and RWDS overtones) got 75% in the first round (!), while the socialist candidate Dilma Rousseff only got 8.6% in the 2014 Presidential elections; in this year’s elections, Bolsonaro got a much more modest 52.4% while Haddad got 6.7%. Haddad’s decline reflected national trends as a whole, while Bolsonaro’s numbers plummeted by 30% relative to the main right-wing candidate’s performance in 2014 (even as he made gains in the country as a whole).

marsilac

But in Marsilac, the poorest region of São Paulo, while Rousseff got 47% to Neves’ 24%, in 2018 Haddad got 35% while Bolsonaro went up to 33%.

Another piece of evidence comes from polling data (see section below): While evangelicals are supporting Bolsonaro by a solid 69% in the second round, amongst agnostics Haddad is winning 55%, and an astounding 64% amongst atheists.

While I make no normative judgments, higher intelligence amongst atheists has been one of the most solid findings of psychometric research. I expect that Brazilian atheists will largely be those SWPL whites who actually do have an issue with Bolsonaro’s juntaphilia, his “misogynistic” remarks about women, his raging homophobia, and his various other powerful takes.

The net result is that while rich Goodwhites still overwhelmingly favor “Trump of the Tropics” Bolsonaro, they don’t like him near as much as they would a Brazilian Jeb!, such as Neves. While Bolsonaro gets relatively more support from the poor and non-white minorities, despite his verbal abuse of both of those groups.

Anyhow, where am I going with this?

I am suggesting that perhaps commenter Thorfinnsson is correct that despair over demographic trends is premature. At a certain point of social stress created by the unholy fusion of diversity and leftism, self-correcting mechanisms will kick in as people become more based and stall the leftwards drift.

Even if the guys they elect to enact the will of Gnon will… generally leave much to be desired.

***

Data

* You can play around with polling results for the second round here: Pesquisa Datafolha 2018

Observations:

  • Sex: Men support Bolsonaro by 61%, while women by only 51%. This looks very similar to the US elections, and for understandable reasons (Bolsonaro’s comments on women and right-wing economic policy).
  • Age group: Over 35 year olds all support him by around 56%-60%, while 52% of millennials favor Haddad. Again, very Trumpian.
  • Education: People with primary education favor Haddad by 54%, while HS and college grads favor Bolsonaro by 60% and 61%, respectively.
  • Socio-economic status: The poor support Haddad by 56%, while the middle classes and rich favor Bolsonaro by well over 60%.
  • Regions: All regions support Bolsonaro by over 59% except for Nordeste, which gives 66% to Haddad.
  • Religion: Catholics are 50/50, evangelicals strongly support Bolsonaro by 69%, “Afro-American religions” support Haddad by 70%. However, agnostics support Haddad by 55%, while atheists support Haddad by 64%!
  • Race: Brancos (whites) support Bolsonaro by 68%, amerela (Asians) by 59%, pard0 (mixed) by 54%, and indigenous peoples by 53%; while preta (blacks) support Haddad by 55%.
  • Cities: 54% favor Bolsonaro in São Paulo, 61% in Rio de Janeiro

***

Background Reading

Reprinting some articles that have been mentioned on this blog in connection with the Brazilian elections in the past month.

* Brian Winter: Who is Mr. Bolsonaro? (h/t Polish Perspective).

Key points:

  1. Bloodshed.
  2. Pro-business economic policy.
  3. Near-total alignment with the Trump administration.
  4. Erosion of democracy and its norms.

* Glenn Greenwald: The Stunning Rise of Brazil’s Far Right and What It Shows About Western Democracies. As in the West, it is centrist collapse that has opened up space for the far right. As in the West, it is centrist collapse that has opened up space for the far right.

* Alin (Unz.com commenter): Brazil Elections Analysis.

Also see his comments #86 and #87 , which gives the context on the Left’s crazy crime-promoting laws, and some interesting data about the (apparently) overly maligned junta.

El Pais seems to have very good coverage (in Portuguese).

***

Charts

* El Pais: Bolsonaro arrasa nas cidades mais brancas e ricas; Haddad nas mais negras e pobres

brazil-2018-elections-wealth

Unlike the case with Trump in the US, the percentage of the vote for Bolsonaro went UP as Brazilians became richer (and more literate).

brazil-2018-elections-race

Contra Alin, there is also a clear racial difference, though not as marked as with wealth. The whiter the region, the more Bolsonaro voters.

brazil-2018-elections-race-regions

However, the regional factor obviously plays a role too. For instance, why does Bolsonaro’s share of the vote veer so sharply upwards in Norte as opposed to Nordeste?

 
Hide 38 CommentsLeave a Comment
Commenters to Ignore...to FollowEndorsed Only
Trim Comments?
    []
  1. “Pinochet should have killed more people”

    “It’s my advice and I do it: I evade all the taxes I can”

    “I never hit my ex-wife. But many times I wanted to shoot her”

    Best timeline.

  2. Am I missing something here, or does there seem to be a contradiction in your analysis?

    First, you say:

    Brazil seems to be an exception to the pattern in the rest of the world where the richest and most intelligent reject the Far Right. But is this really true? Actually, no!

    Then, you cite some statistics stating that “the middle classes and rich favor Bolsonaro by well over 60%” and “college grads favor Bolsonaro by 60% and 61%”.

    So, it would seem that, well, actually, yes!, there is an exception to the pattern, for if over 60% of “the richest and most intelligent” Brazilians support Bolsonaro, then, in fact, they DON’T reject “the Far Right” .

    Correct me if I’m wrong, but at least that’s what I read into the analysis itself….

    • Replies: @Anatoly Karlin
    , @Dmitry
  3. @Fin of a Cobra

    The effect still exists, it’s just much less powerful in Brazil.

    • Replies: @Costa
  4. Dmitry says:

    A very interesting and informative post. Brazil is some kind of cool and bizarre parallel dimension. I wonder what the Japanese Brazilian demographic is voting for?

    • Replies: @Costa
  5. Dmitry says:
    @Fin of a Cobra

    I think Karlin’s argument is that by behaving stupidly, he’s losing some votes ceteris paribus, with the top people in Brazil.

    But perhaps (which is a clever Trump strategy), this behaviour can win more votes – ceteris paribus – from a middle and lower area of the population.

    This is all with a ceteris paribus clause. People should generally vote for someone who supports their interests – so you would not expect rational, white, higher taxpayers, to vote for a socialist candidate, just because the capitalist one is sometimes a clown. But it could lose him some potential votes from a fraction of people particularly sensitive to this, or whose priority is a president that should be a kind of dignified face of the country.*

    -

    *Also the top people might be more sensitive to this in more stable and developed countries than Brazil. In America.

    • Replies: @Dmitry
    , @Laca
  6. Dmitry says:
    @Dmitry

    In America.

    In America, there is perhaps more of a luxurious situation than Brazil, allowing for more bourgeois people in safe areas, to vote against their own interests, if they think another candidate will give them the better external image (e.g. Obama and Clinton would be voted for by a lot of wealthy white people living in La Jolla or Martha’s Vineyard for self-image reasons, despite that they would tax them more than Romney or Trump).

    • Replies: @Anon
  7. utu says:

    What is the attraction for Evangelicals? They are rather low income and more in North (33%) while in South (17%). They vote against the majority of their income group and against the majority in terms geographical preference.

    Gay issue? Zionism?

    Here Haaretz 2 days ago tries to explain:

    Hitler in Brasilia: The U.S. Evangelicals and Nazi Political Theory Behind Brazil’s President-in-waiting

    https://www.haaretz.com/world-news/.premium-hitler-in-brasilia-the-u-s-evangelicals-and-nazi-political-theory-behind-bolsonaro-1.6581924

    Beside Hitler also Putin, Dugin and Bannon are mentioned. But Zionism is not mentioned by Haaretz.

    • Replies: @Dmitry
  8. jeppo says:

    why does Bolsonaro’s share of the vote veer so sharply upwards in Norte as opposed to Nordeste?

    Possibly because the North is mainly mestizo and indigenous, while the Northeast is mostly mulatto and black. Whites are only a small minority (about 25%) in both regions.

    Also the Northeast is the poorest region of Brazil, and there’s a lot more potential development to be had in the Amazonian North once “Mito” scraps all those pesky environmental laws.

    The Northeast really is a different country, politically anyway. Bolsonaro’s supporters label it “Venezuela.” Here’s the full regional breakdown in his support:

    North: 59%
    Northeast: 34%
    Centre-West: 69%
    Southeast: 63%
    South: 65%

    And the “Bolsonaro’s greatest hits” link to the Daily Stormer should really have gone to Chateau Heartiste, where it was copied and pasted from. Credit where credit’s due.

    But if you want to see Bolso’s *actual* greatest hits, then check this out:

    AK: Thanks for the explanation. And I replaced Heartiste with DS.

    • Replies: @utu
  9. Dmitry says:
    @utu

    Journalist discusses it as related to conservative social views.

    • Agree: utu
    • Replies: @utu
  10. Anon[395] • Disclaimer says:
    @Dmitry

    Martha’s Vineyard would be a comparatively different place without the foreign labor brought in to run it. La Jolla would be the same if the US had a low rate of “professional class” immigration.

    To the upper-middle class white liberal, they are acting both out of their own interests to favor mass immigration for its benefits (cheap labor, rubbing the Right’s nose in diveristy, importing relatives from the Old Country) while minimizing its local costs (zoning restrictions, cognitive stratification).

    The presence of a Sanders-type Dem on a future ticket that promises to start taxing retirement accounts, and raise capital gains tax to the same rate as regular income tax; will not do as well in these areas. Perhaps some of the inhabitans might even consider returning to the Old Country versus subsidizing an increasingly fiscal/social unstable US.

  11. utu says:
    @jeppo

    He sounds like Duterte.

  12. utu says:
    @Dmitry

    Evangelical Christianity’s Changing Demographics Bode Well for Israel

    https://mosaicmagazine.com/picks/2017/07/evangelical-christianitys-changing-demographics-bode-well-for-israel/

    Israel wields Bible’s soft power as far afield as Brazil

    https://www.csmonitor.com/World/Middle-East/2013/0227/Israel-wields-Bible-s-soft-power-as-far-afield-as-Brazil

    The Globalists agenda with the Zionist Evangelical “Christian” Church

    https://www.algora.com/Algora_blog/2018/01/12/the-globalists-agenda-with-the-zionist-evangelical-christian-church

    When and How Did Evangelicals Become Zionists?

    https://www.wrmea.org/018-may/when-and-how-did-evangelicals-become-zionists.html

    Christian Zionism preceded by 50 years, and even influenced the emergence of, Jewish Zionism—surprised? When the British literalists cherry-picked biblical references to apply to a physical state for diaspora Jews, ultimately they helped to bring about what their adherents promoted, and now believe, is that state brought through an act of God in 1948.

    It is important to see the progression of Christian Zionism’s development. It has roots at least as far back as the 16th century European Reformation. The early literal readership of the local language translations like the King James Bible, later in Scofield Reference editions, had footnotes and commentary that promoted dispensational Zionism.

    The modern movement can be traced to the early 19th century, with a group of eccentric British Christian restorationists lacking formal theological training. They began to lobby for Jewish return to Palestine and the necessary precondition for the second coming of Christ—or the first coming of the Messiah, as you wish. John Darby was their leader. The Darbyists gained traction from the middle of the 19th century, when Palestine became strategic to Britain, France and Germany, and their colonial interests in the Middle East.

    In the early 20th century, evangelists Billy Sunday, D.L. Moody and others promulgated the Scofield Bible dispensational point of view to convert people by employing end-of-the-world fear.

  13. Anon[363] • Disclaimer says:

    Bolsonaro is himself a Pentecostal that’s why evangelical support him. http://www.unz.com/article/brazils-bolsonaro-among-other-things-a-pentecostalist-triumph/

    I suddenly don’t support him because of this.

    • Replies: @Mitchell Porter
  14. “Brazil seems to be an exception to the pattern in the rest of the world where the richest and most intelligent reject the Far Right.”

    You need to look up the results in Dixie Land. Its almost to the point were all Southn Whites vote Republican

  15. Costa says:
    @Dmitry

    Info about polling numbers by race are limited here, but Datafolha showed Asians (80% + Japanese), voting for Bolsonaro 59 x 41 a few weeks ago.

  16. Costa says:
    @Anatoly Karlin

    I can confirm this. My father’s side of the family (conservative, christian) has been supporting Bolsonaro since the beginning of the election. My mother’s side, which is mostly agnostic and liberal, was going to vote for the traditional center-right candidate, but switched at the last week before the first round, in order to defeat PT without a second round. Both my parents and coworkers think Bolsonaro is trash but “that’s what we got” to kick the leftists out.

    • Agree: Anatoly Karlin
    • Replies: @Nznz
  17. Pericles says:

    As in the West, it is centrist collapse that has opened up space for the far right.

    The Progs have been running hard to the left while their lapdogs on the Right have tried to keep up with varying success around the world. The voters haven’t though. Centrism became Leftism, then vanished. A case of the Politics/Donor-bubble bursting.

    We can also see this trend in various unelected positions being usually more radical, more leftwing and altogether worse and crazier people with a zealous agenda. When your safely ensconced judges are, ahem, active in LGBT or migrant issues you know where things are headed.

  18. Nznz says: • Website
    @Costa

    Why can’t they have a Rick Santorum or Mike Huckabee type candidate who is also socially conservative but sounds a lot more refined than Bolsonaro?

    • Replies: @Costa
    , @Kevin O'Keeffe
  19. g2k says:

    This guy is an almost carbon copy of Duterte. Afaik, that guy started off extremely pro US until neoliberalism.txt started criticizing him on human rights grounds. He responded by being amusingly rude to Obama during his last few weeks in office and becoming more balanced wrt China.

    • Replies: @Carlo
    , @Daniel Chieh
    , @Bliss
  20. Laca says:
    @Dmitry

    All of you international media should study a bit harder Brazilian history and after that LIVE in the country for some years to first know that the only exception to the international pattern is that here they have always focused on their own pockets, hence the population’s unanimous rejection of those bastards, s.o.b., criminals whose right place is where one of their mentors is, jail. Secondly, you would not say so much bull* about our elections without having no serious data about it. In other words, you can’t be taken seriously.

  21. @Anon

    Australia’s latest prime minister (Scott Morrison, fifth in ten years) is Pentecostal too – unusual for Australia.

    • Replies: @Bliss
  22. Carlo says:
    @g2k

    Hopefully this will happen to Bolsonaro also, because in my opinion (I am a Brazilian, and voted for him in both rounds) the worst part of his agenda is his unconditional alignment with the US and zionism.

  23. Costa says:
    @Nznz

    Probably because a candidate of this kind would have been perceived as too boring or not aggressive enough to deal with crime. Like Trump, Bolsonaro’s controversial remarks got him a lot of free media.

    The evangelical political movement is a fairly recent phenomenon in Brazil. Only around 15% of Brazillians were evangelicals back in 1994, they are 30% now. Bolsonaro himself isn’t part of the evangelical movement and most leaders of the churches actually supported someone else at the beginning of the race.

  24. neutral says:

    His “far right” credentials come from things like homosexuality, guns and most importantly showing obedience to Israel. None of things really help white people, Brazil is already majority non white, many of the the brancos are of dubious white heritage, a far right president in Brazil is as meaningless as a far right president of Nigeria.

    • Replies: @Dumbo
  25. @Nznz

    Why can’t they have a Rick Santorum or Mike Huckabee type candidate who is also socially conservative but sounds a lot more refined than Bolsonaro?

    Uh…because Brazil isn’t that cucked?

    (please forgive my verbose, esoteric explanation)

  26. Dumbo says:
    @neutral

    Yes, it does matter – for Brazil.
    In Brazil, social conservatism (and going hard on criminality) is more important than “racial purity”, immigration, and “hbd”. The comparison with Nigeria is stupid. The South of Brazil is heavily white, even admitting a 5%-10% admixture in most people of European descent. Besides Italians, Germans and Poles, Brazil has the largest Japanese community outside of Japan, and a lot of Lebanese (many in politics, such as Haddad). It is DUMB to compare it to a fully African country.

    Anyway, most commenters have zero knowledge about Brazil or Latin America, and say incorrect things. Some more information:

    - Bolsonaro is officially catholic, but his wife is Pentecostal, and he has a lot of supports from evangelicals, since they are more important than Catholics now in Brazil
    - Catholicism in Brazil screwed up BIG by joining liberation theology and leftism in the 70s and 80s, so they were replaced among the poor by evangelic social conservative churches. Only middle class is “catholic” (really agnostic).
    - The main reason for people voting in Bolsonaro is because PT (Worker’s Party) was in power for the last 14 years and had a lot of corruption scandals, and most people, both rich and poor, are fed up with PT. Simple as that.
    - Politics in Brazil in the last 30 years have oscillated between leftist PT and “social democrat” or center-left PSDB (and sister party PMDB), all very corrupt parties, and not very different in their politics (although PT is more radical). People are fed up with corruption and believe Bolsonaro is “clean”.
    - Another important reason for the vote in Bolsonaro is violence and criminality. PT has been extremely lax in this area and crime is at all time highs.
    - Bolsonaro is not really a neo-liberal in economy, although he has aligned himself with such people for political reasons. However, his instincts are more geared to statism such as the way it was in the military dictatorship in the 60s. I suspect that he will not be as radical in the economy as people think.
    - Yes he is a zionist as evangelical churches in Brazil are heavily zionist following US influence. Haddad is Arab and more pro-Palestine, but of course socially liberal, so Jewish vote in Brazil is divided.

    • Agree: Anatoly Karlin
    • Replies: @Alin
  27. @g2k

    Duterte was pretty irritated for a long time for what was probably a rogue CIA action(possibly to protect their drug-related income sources). Intelligence agencies going off reservations and doing random stupid things often get their host countries condemned.

    https://www.nytimes.com/2016/05/14/world/asia/philippines-president-rodrigo-duterte.html

    No idea about Bolsonaro, but I’ll bet some money that he’ll be amenable to Russia and China soon enough.

  28. songbird says:

    So, is he ahead because he was stabbed, or is that mostly just a coincidence?

    Teddy Roosevelt was shot, and he lost that election. But that was a much different society compared to Brazil, or even the US today.

    • Replies: @anon
  29. anon[254] • Disclaimer says:
    @songbird

    So, is he ahead because he was stabbed, or is that mostly just a coincidence?

    believe he was leading before the stabbing occurred

  30. jeppo says:

    Fresh from the Guardian’s butthurt live blog: “With 88% of votes counted Jair Bolsonaro has 55.7% and is therefore elected Brazil’s next president, electoral authorities have confirmed.”

    But as a consolation prize he’s offering free helicopter rides to the losers.

    • Replies: @Anatoly Karlin
  31. @jeppo

    Fake news!

  32. Anonymous[276] • Disclaimer says:

    How critical was the stabbing to his victory? Do you think he would’ve won without it?

    • Replies: @Alin
  33. Bliss says:
    @g2k

    This guy is an almost carbon copy of Duterte.

    He is the opposite of Duterte in religion. Bolsonaro is a believing Christian while Duterte is not. Far from it:

    https://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/2018/06/26/philippine-bishops-hit-back-duterte-calls-god-stupid/

    After cursing the pope, the European Union and the United Nations, the Philippines’ controversial president, Rodrigo Duterte, has now lashed out at “stupid” God, sparking outrage in his majority Catholic nation.

    Mr Duterte provoked the latest furore when he questioned the Biblical story of creation in a televised speech, asking why God had created Adam and Eve only to allow them to cave in to temptation.

    Who is this stupid God?” said the 73-year-old president in his usual blunt style. “How can you rationalise a God? Do you believe?” he asked viewers in Asia’s largest Catholic country.

    • Replies: @g2k
  34. Bliss says:
    @Mitchell Porter

    Australia’s latest prime minister (Scott Morrison, fifth in ten years) is Pentecostal too – unusual for Australia.

    Interesting. Something is happening in the Southern Hemisphere: in South America, Subsaharan Africa and even Oceania. It’s American soft power in action. For the Pentecostal Church was Made in America. By an African-American preacher William Seymour:

    https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/Pentecostalism

    The three-year-long Azusa Street Revival, founded and led by Seymour in Los Angeles, California, resulted in the spread of Pentecostalism throughout the United States and the rest of the world as visitors carried the Pentecostal experience back to their home churches or felt called to the mission field. While virtually all Pentecostal denominations trace their origins to Azusa Street the movement has experienced a variety of divisions and controversies.

    https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/Azusa_Street_Revival

    The Azusa Street Revival was a historic revival meeting that took place in Los Angeles, California. It was led by William J. Seymour, an African American preacher. It began with a meeting on April 9, 1906, and continued until roughly 1915. The revival was characterized by spiritual experiences accompanied with testimonies of physical healing miracles, worship services and speaking in tongues. The participants were criticized by some secular media and Christian theologians for behaviors considered to be outrageous and unorthodox, especially at the time. Today, the revival is considered by historians to be the primary catalyst for the spread of Pentecostalism in the 20th century.

  35. g2k says:
    @Bliss

    Bolsonaro is religious, but isnt a god-botherer. They’re both quite crude, ex military, and still seem to have a “military type attitude” towards civilian life and politics. They were both elected on extreme law and order platforms. Duterte is a member of the guardians brotherhood, which was a military fraternity that supported Marcos, before turning against him.

  36. Alin says:
    @Dumbo

    Agreed. In short, these elites didn’t vote FOR Bolsonaro; they voted AGAINST the leftists that destroyed Brazil in the last decade. They don’t care much for his social conservatism and voted for him despite, not because, his outrageous controversial statements.

    The real difficulty for replicating this is putting a stark choice of chaos or “this” to the elites. Bolsonaro got very lucky: the series of events that led up to him could not have been predicted by anyone, least of all himself.

  37. Alin says:
    @Anonymous

    It helped but was not critical. He’d have won without it.

    The help was in showing the lukewarm centrists that the Left would resort to literally killing the opposition if they returned to full power – so the stabbing sucked many voters from centrist candidates to Bolsonaro. People who voted Bolsonaro despite disliking him, only to stop the left. But this same dynamic would have happened anyway once it became clear that Haddad would get a spot on the runoff.

    The stabbing also exposed the media’s complete worthlessness as it continued criticizing the “violence” of Bolsonaro’s speeches while the guy was in the hospital. A more complete demonstration of onesidedness could not be hoped for.

Current Commenter
says:

Leave a Reply - Follow from *akarlin.com* and/or this *feed*. You can also comment with *your money*.


 Remember My InformationWhy?
 Email Replies to my Comment
Submitted comments become the property of The Unz Review and may be republished elsewhere at the sole discretion of the latter
Subscribe to This Comment Thread via RSS Subscribe to All Anatoly Karlin Comments via RSS