You can discuss the Brazilian elections in this thread.
Who will Win?
The polls say that it will almost certainly be Bolsonaro. PredictIt is giving him a 95% chance.
Brazil seems to be an exception to the pattern in the rest of the world where the richest and most intelligent reject the Far Right.
But is this really true?
Actually, no! The above shows Section 5 in São Paulo, one of the most elite districts in the capital. As elections analyst Alexander Kireev points out, the more conventional right-wing candidate Neves (i.e. someone without the homophobia and RWDS overtones) got 75% in the first round (!), while the socialist candidate Dilma Rousseff only got 8.6% in the 2014 Presidential elections; in this year’s elections, Bolsonaro got a much more modest 52.4% while Haddad got 6.7%. Haddad’s decline reflected national trends as a whole, while Bolsonaro’s numbers plummeted by 30% relative to the main right-wing candidate’s performance in 2014 (even as he made gains in the country as a whole).
But in Marsilac, the poorest region of São Paulo, while Rousseff got 47% to Neves’ 24%, in 2018 Haddad got 35% while Bolsonaro went up to 33%.
Another piece of evidence comes from polling data (see section below): While evangelicals are supporting Bolsonaro by a solid 69% in the second round, amongst agnostics Haddad is winning 55%, and an astounding 64% amongst atheists.
While I make no normative judgments, higher intelligence amongst atheists has been one of the most solid findings of psychometric research. I expect that Brazilian atheists will largely be those SWPL whites who actually do have an issue with Bolsonaro’s juntaphilia, his “misogynistic” remarks about women, his raging homophobia, and his various other powerful takes.
"Do you burn the donut?" I don't care! Be happy! Hugs for you! https://t.co/MjOCxvK94n
— Jair M. Bolsonaro (@jairbolsonaro) September 4, 2017
The net result is that while rich Goodwhites still overwhelmingly favor “Trump of the Tropics” Bolsonaro, they don’t like him near as much as they would a Brazilian Jeb!, such as Neves. While Bolsonaro gets relatively more support from the poor and non-white minorities, despite his verbal abuse of both of those groups.
Anyhow, where am I going with this?
I am suggesting that perhaps commenter Thorfinnsson is correct that despair over demographic trends is premature. At a certain point of social stress created by the unholy fusion of diversity and leftism, self-correcting mechanisms will kick in as people become more based and stall the leftwards drift.
… "The PT has already run ads comparing Bolsonaro directly to Hitler, and still Bolsonaro’s support has only grown."
– In final-phase mass democracy, being compared to Hitler by the opposition is a precondition for electoral success.
— Outsideness (@Outsideness) October 10, 2018
Even if the guys they elect to enact the will of Gnon will… generally leave much to be desired.
* You can play around with polling results for the second round here: Pesquisa Datafolha 2018
- Sex: Men support Bolsonaro by 61%, while women by only 51%. This looks very similar to the US elections, and for understandable reasons (Bolsonaro’s comments on women and right-wing economic policy).
- Age group: Over 35 year olds all support him by around 56%-60%, while 52% of millennials favor Haddad. Again, very Trumpian.
- Education: People with primary education favor Haddad by 54%, while HS and college grads favor Bolsonaro by 60% and 61%, respectively.
- Socio-economic status: The poor support Haddad by 56%, while the middle classes and rich favor Bolsonaro by well over 60%.
- Regions: All regions support Bolsonaro by over 59% except for Nordeste, which gives 66% to Haddad.
- Religion: Catholics are 50/50, evangelicals strongly support Bolsonaro by 69%, “Afro-American religions” support Haddad by 70%. However, agnostics support Haddad by 55%, while atheists support Haddad by 64%!
- Race: Brancos (whites) support Bolsonaro by 68%, amerela (Asians) by 59%, pard0 (mixed) by 54%, and indigenous peoples by 53%; while preta (blacks) support Haddad by 55%.
- Cities: 54% favor Bolsonaro in São Paulo, 61% in Rio de Janeiro
Reprinting some articles that have been mentioned on this blog in connection with the Brazilian elections in the past month.
* Brian Winter: Who is Mr. Bolsonaro? (h/t Polish Perspective).
- Pro-business economic policy.
- Near-total alignment with the Trump administration.
- Erosion of democracy and its norms.
* Glenn Greenwald: The Stunning Rise of Brazil’s Far Right and What It Shows About Western Democracies. As in the West, it is centrist collapse that has opened up space for the far right. As in the West, it is centrist collapse that has opened up space for the far right.
* Alin (Unz.com commenter): Brazil Elections Analysis.
El Pais seems to have very good coverage (in Portuguese).
Unlike the case with Trump in the US, the percentage of the vote for Bolsonaro went UP as Brazilians became richer (and more literate).
Contra Alin, there is also a clear racial difference, though not as marked as with wealth. The whiter the region, the more Bolsonaro voters.
However, the regional factor obviously plays a role too. For instance, why does Bolsonaro’s share of the vote veer so sharply upwards in Norte as opposed to Nordeste?