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On April 15, BTC was ~$5k.

Now it’s around $13k.

You can make good money by reading me.

My long-term prediction is that Bitcoin will remain within the $10-20k range for the next couple of years, but will converge to an ultimate price of $100k within five years.

 
• Category: Economics • Tags: Bitcoin, Humor, Prediction 
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  1. Please keep off topic posts to the current Open Thread.

    If you are new to my work, start here.

  2. Not Raul says:

    Where will the demand for Bitcoin come from?

    It costs a lot of money to use, and the bandwidth is low.

    People say that it will “disruptive gold”; but gold has important practical uses in medicine, dentistry, jewelry, electronics, etc.

    Do you think that large dollar value transactions in Bitcoin will be used for trade with sanctioned entities? Would helping Russia, Syria, Iran, North Korea evade sanctions be the killer app?

    Bitcoin is too expensive to use to be economical for petty crime transactions.

    • Replies: @Max Payne
  3. Bitcoin is too technically limited to serve as anything other than a gambling medium. Real applications will be serviced by less resource hungry tokens.

    • Agree: Thomm
  4. anon[387] • Disclaimer says:

    I don’t buy this. My prediction: After 5 years or so it will crash as the US government regulates it out of existence. Back when Obama was president, back when everyone thought Hillary Clinton was going to win, the deepstate and its media proxies were floating stories linking its use to terrorism and “white supremacy”. They hounded the supposed creator and publicly doxxed him as a lesson to the rest. I expect this situation to pick up again post 2020. The US tyranny isn’t going to just sit back and let people fund dissidents without some way of doxxing and destroying the funding. This is about power and the maintenance of it. That means bitcoin has to go.

  5. Like other people who have made comments, I have to wonder what value will Bitcoin ever have? I don’t mean how much will speculators pay for it, I mean what good will it do the rest of us?

    • Replies: @Daniel H
    , @yakushimaru
  6. MarkinLA says:

    At the end of every transaction somebody has to actually get something real. As soon as somebody can’t get their something real watch everybody run for the exits.

  7. Let’s use Bitcoin to pay the reparations the Democrats are demanding.

  8. Curious says:

    Bitcoin is not particularly interesting as an alternative to currency. It is more like gold and gold has limited investment opportunities. There are much better coins out there to replace money (which would never happen as it would upset TPTB), such as Litecoin.

  9. Daniel H says:
    @Cagey Beast

    Like other people who have made comments, I have to wonder what value will Bitcoin ever have? I don’t mean how much will speculators pay for it, I mean what good will it do the rest of us?

    https://nypost.com/2019/06/20/florida-city-pays-hackers-600k-in-bitcoin-to-get-computer-systems-back/

  10. While I missed the very bottom, doubling my bitcoin investment wasn’t sad at all. I had actually purchased it expecting a top around $8k, so I’ve been pleasantly surprised by its continuing rise.

    • Agree: Anatoly Karlin
    • Replies: @LondonBob
  11. “You can make good money by reading me.”

    but did YOU make good money reading yourself?

  12. neutral says:

    You are completely ignoring politics here. The international jew is obviously not happy with something like Bitcoin existing. What will happen is very predictable, they will push for people to use Facebooks Libra (or equivalent big tech alternatives), then they will push hard on the narrative on how Bitcoin is used by terrorists, white nationalists, etc. Then governments will ban Bitcoin because of hate speech laws or some other of the many anti white laws.

    I cannot give the exact times when this will happen, but within 10 years its more than likely that Bitcoin will have been completely banned (and thus have a value of zero). If you don’t think this will happen then let me know why you think so.

    • Replies: @anonymous
    , @Yevardian
    , @Aft
  13. Anon[135] • Disclaimer says:

    You can make good money by reading me

    Sorry if this is too off topic, but is there a way to beat the market with knowledge of hbd, given that many countries currently have GDPs lower than you would expect from their average IQs? I’m not sure if it’s possible for an average income person to invest in a nation’s long term future (I don’t know anything about investment), but it seems like there should be a way.

  14. anonymous[189] • Disclaimer says:
    @neutral

    The international jew is obviously not happy with something like Bitcoin existing.

    “Satoshi”, the creator of Bitcoin is anonymous person or persons hiding in shadows, why you trust him? Why you think bitcoin is not a part of (((the plan)))?

    You well know that (((they))) own everything and control everyone. (((They))) started all wars, killed Kennedy, faked holocaust, moon landing and 9/11. How can you be sure that bitcoin was not created by (((NSA))) or (((Mossad)))? Do you think (((their plans))) can be thwarted by some computer nerd?

    • Replies: @neutral
    , @Anatoly Karlin
  15. neutral says:
    @anonymous

    Another brainless Hasbara attempt at argument.

    In the real world people are really being banned at increasing rates, I don’t have to point at obscure conspiracy theories to make my point, I can cite you the most mainstream media outlets reporting this, the difference is obviously they think it’s perfectly valid to ban everything they don’t like. The next step is obviously now banning the use of banks, it’s just started with that Mastercard story but one can easily see that within 5 years this will have been mostly accomplished.

    But keep talking, I am sure that in your world people your obfuscation and straw men are good enough to hide the obvious.

    • Agree: Kent Nationalist
  16. @Anon

    You just described bonds. Hit investopedia.

  17. JRM says:

    I think that Bitcoin’s price represents excess liquidity in the financial system. Excess liquidity causes the prices of all assets to rise. If central banks all reduce liquidity, then all asset prices will fall.

    • Replies: @Not Raul
  18. Max Payne says:
    @Not Raul

    You do realize you can use fractions of a bitcoin right?

    You’ve never seen those BTC kiosks in convenience stores? Usually in terrible neighbourhoods in which no one owns a computer save for their smartphone.

    If your curious just visit Tochka (the .onion site) and buy some premium cocaine (or fake passports/counterfeits if you really want to risk trying to use one of those).

    Here just for you:

    Right now a vendor has 1.0g of blow for 0.005724 BTC. $70 is too expensive? Where do you live? Cameroon? I guess if your conversion rate was like 1 USD to a million liras or dabloons or whatever they use over there it might be too expensive.

    Until they legalize everything you see on that site bitcoin will always have a demand. No matter how small the transaction. Because freedom.

    • Replies: @Not Raul
  19. Yevardian says:
    @neutral

    Hey, even a stopped clock is right once a day.

    • Replies: @reiner Tor
  20. Dmitry says:

    For these comments of Jewish bitcoin conspiracy theory.

    I was assuming bitcoin is likely related to Israel, or at least the currency nowadays has the most penetration there.

    I think Israel is the only (or one of the only) places they have the bitcoin banks in the highstreet.

  21. Dmitry says:
    @Anon

    Emerging market funds are some of the most popular kind of investments in the world, especially when the Western.

    I don’t have any investments, so could not help more – but there are many of these funds which invest in “emerging market” countries, and some are quite famous.

    I think they also are branding themselves for focusing for different regions. So there e.g. are funds which focus more on Asia, or others more on Africa.

    • Replies: @anonymous
  22. neutral says:
    @Dmitry

    conspiracy theory

    It’s not a theory if it’s happening in real life. The ADL does not censor what happens in Israel, one does not have to discuss why this is the case. The ADL however does direct what the tech tyrants must ban in former white countries. Nobody can seriously argue that their end goal is not the complete removal of all pro white outlets, the removal of all their access to all business, and ultimately the complete removal from the population.

  23. @Cagey Beast

    The exchange value of it should’ve been obvious by now, no?

    • Replies: @Cagey Beast
  24. @Dmitry

    They are not leading the crypto scene. Eastern Europe is.

    • Replies: @Dmitry
  25. Not Raul says:
    @Max Payne

    I’m not sure that you’re not joking.

    In order to receive the purchased item, someone would have to provide an address. The prospective buyer might be giving an address to the cops.

    The prospective seller might just keep the Bitcoin, and not send anything. The prospective buyer wouldn’t be able to do anything about it.

    Transaction costs are very high. The smaller the purchase, the higher the transaction cost is in percentage terms. I know that Bitcoin can be divided in to smaller units. That doesn’t change the fact that for every transaction, huge numbers of ledgers have to be checked, compared, and modified.

  26. Not Raul says:
    @JRM

    I agree. The excess liquidity has to go somewhere.

    With interest rates low, stock P/E ratios high, real estate expensive, and gold around $1400 per ounce, it makes sense that investors are getting desperate.

    • Replies: @Intelligent Dasein
  27. Dmitry says:
    @Noiger Blackskingod

    For example – for interest in using the currency, I guess it will be proportionally highest in somewhere like Venezuela.

    I would be sure Israel have the highest per capita fundraising in the world in ICOs though. It seems in 2017, around 13% of world ICO funding was in Israel.

    But you can see some were vehicles for stealing currency. And a lot were crashing
    https://en.globes.co.il/en/article-whos-left-standing-in-israels-blockchain-sector-1001267688

  28. @anonymous

    Needs more parentheses.

    • Agree: Daniel Chieh
  29. @Not Raul

    Yes. Bubbles always beat everything while they’re inflating. That’s why they call them bubbles.

    • Replies: @Cloudswrest
  30. anon[228] • Disclaimer says:

    “What will happen is very predictable, they will push for people to use Facebooks Libra (or equivalent big tech alternatives), then they will push hard on the narrative on how Bitcoin is used by terrorists, white nationalists, etc. Then governments will ban Bitcoin because of hate speech laws or some other of the many anti white laws.”

    Then they will use Libra or big tech alternatives to police speech via banning dissenters from their platforms for TOS violations – supporting mainstream conservatives, opposing mass immigration, etc. This will make it look as though the US government isn’t regulating speech and quelling dissent, but they are – just through a third party. Controlled media will then sweep in and claim to the outraged masses “The constitution only says the gubmint can’t do it. Muh private companies.” Never mind the fact that the practice violates the spirit of the constitution, even if it doesn’t violate the literal words. YouTube will ban dissenting videos on the topic for privacy reasons while Google down ranks search results without explanation. Guys like David French will then write in support of this policy after The National Review is caught taking money from Facebook. They will say that censorship is a conservative value and “muh constitution” and “muh conservative judges say it’s okay”. Meanwhile, you are effectively banished from society.

  31. @yakushimaru

    But look at how wildly the value of Bitcoin fluctuates and how cumbersome it is to do transactions.

    • Replies: @yakushimaru
  32. anonymous[166] • Disclaimer says:
    @Dmitry

    Emerging market funds are some of the most popular kind of investments in the world, especially when the Western.

    And also the most popular scams.

    Remember Iraqi dinar.

    https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Iraqi_dinar#Use_in_speculation_and_fraud_since_the_Iraq_war_(2003%E2%80%93present)

    https://investorplace.com/2014/06/iraqi-dinar-scam/

    TL;DR: After brilliant victory and “mission accomplished” in Iraq, someone had an idea to sell Iraqi dinars to Republicans.
    After all, American boys brought freedom and democracy to Iraq, and massive boom like in Germany and Japan will start soon. Looks like brilliant idea to invest your life savings there, doesn’t it?

    Short guide, not for staying rich, but for not becoming poor: look at ads on Breitbart, Infowars, Zerohedge, Alex Jones and similar right wing sites, and avoid like black plague anything that is sold there to conservatives.

    • Replies: @Dmitry
    , @prime noticer
  33. Dmitry says:
    @anonymous

    Emerging market funds are higher risk usually, but I doubt they are all so terrible.

    For example, BlackRock emerging market fund could have increased your investment by 3 times inside 10 years, if you bought when prices were in the bottom in 2009.
    https://www.blackrock.com/us/individual/products/227706/blackrock-emerging-markets-fundclass-a-fund

    The thing is, buying for an emerging market fund in 2009 would not even be controversial, and was likely the standard advice (as the emerging markets avoided a lot of the 2008 financial crisis and this fund’s largest investment is in China).

  34. @Cagey Beast

    You’ll find it a little bit easier when you’re banned from say paypal. Life has its ups and downs. 😉

  35. That and Dutch tulips should fund an early retirement nicely enough!

  36. anon[304] • Disclaimer says:
    @Anon

    Not really.

    Other than avoid Argentina.

    And always bet on race and gender realism.

  37. Realist says:

    Crypto currency is fiat money like the US dollar.

    • Replies: @anonymous coward
  38. nier1 says:

    I think it’s obvious to someone with super high IQ that crypto currencies are beginning a long bear market. I’m afraid Anatoly Karlin’s IQ is simply not that high.

  39. @Realist

    Crypto currency is fiat money like the US dollar.

    ‘Crypto’ is not money at all, because ‘crypto’ has very poor liquidity. Might as well invest into collectible Lego sets.

    • Replies: @Sean
  40. Sean says:

    My long-term prediction is that Bitcoin will remain within the $10-20k range for the next couple of years, but will converge to an ultimate price of $100k within five years.

    $10-20k is roughly what it seems to be stabilizing around in the limited test of time it has undergone so far, so predicting it being that in a year or two is a good application of proven principles. Waiting for the market to go down to $7 k and piling in is an excellent bet if you have a chunk of silly money you are willing to risk losing in order to double it.

    Money is too hard to come by for risking anything but a fraction of what you have (the good old 1/n) in any one investment, even in something you think have made yourself a master of the facts on. Bitcoin going to $100k is a very long shot, and IMO you would see governments’ intervention to stop runaway capital fight if Bitcoin got to $50,000 with no end in sight. Nelson Bunker Hunt pissed away one of the world’s great fortunes trying to corner the global silver market. He would have did it but the government changed the rules on him. There is a lot of anti nation state rhetoric in the Bitcoin community and I am sure there are already plans drawn up for clipping its wings if that becomes necessary.

  41. Sean says:
    @anonymous coward

    The real money in Lego set collectible is in putting it together whatever it is and then selling that. Takes time to build a Death Star.

  42. @anonymous

    “Short guide, not for staying rich, but for not becoming poor: look at ads on Breitbart, Infowars, Zerohedge, Alex Jones and similar right wing sites, and avoid like black plague anything that is sold there to conservatives.”

    but but but…gold….

    don’t you read The Morgan Report? silver is about to break out.

    buy vintage 1911s today…gun safes….you can also store your term life insurance policy and dentures in there…

    buy bonds to hedge against…making any profits…

    a 50% market correction is coming ANY TIME, watch this Peter Schiff video to find out when…

    • Replies: @MarkinLA
  43. LondonBob says:
    @Daniel Chieh

    Yes but what if you can’t get your money out.

    Apparently the Israeli mafia have moved on from binary options to bitcoin.

  44. You are a good predictor, time to update your ROC curve graphic of your predictions?

    I generally average your opinion into relevant trades with a weight of .2, which is actually really high given that I’m averaging over multiple people as well as my own call in most cases. This saved me from selling all my stake in Kamala Harris when she was being killed on PredictIt in early June. Your favorable call on her kept me long and now I am up handsomely. Спасибо тебе! I was burned for not heeding your call on the mid terms.

    $100k is probably a fair long term forecast. I want to forecast a higher number but $100k is sober. If Bitcoin hits a market cap equal to US M2 money supply, that works out to around $600k per coin. One shouldn’t sell ALL his bitcoin until we break $500k is all. One should be buying aggressively now.

    • Replies: @LondonBob
  45. Han says:

    Why is the HK and Beijing government just allowing the HK protests to escalate? By showing lack of fortitude, they are just inviting further provocations and escalation, until it reaches to such an extent that the Chinese government will be for extent that it will be far more drastic than if Beijing that just shown more firmness at the start and just nipped things in the bud. I mean the Chinese could shut down the territories internet and prevent CNN and the BBC from broadcasting and forcibly intern their personel and shut down their studios under national security provisions.

  46. LondonBob says:
    @Boswald Bollocksworth

    This article looks like a good contrarian indicator at the moment.

  47. Maciano says:

    I love all the commenters who immediately talk about scam, bubble, tulips, etc. You’ve been saying this for years. I never heard the “Israel did it”-theory yet, but this being unz.com after all, I’m not surprised 😉

    Anyway, if you want to know more about bitcoin, please read the essays on Nakamoto Institute.
    https://nakamotoinstitute.org/

    There’s also Satoshi himself, many interesting essays on money.
    http://unenumerated.blogspot.com/

    This site has a lot of info for newcomers as well.
    https://10hoursofbitcoin.com/

    And if you’re really interested, check out Stephan Livera’s podcast.
    https://stephanlivera.com/

    If you don’t want to read essays, no problem. Guy Swann of Cryptoconomy podcast reads the best bitcoin essays in this podcast. Very educational.
    https://anchor.fm/thecryptoconomy

    Do your own research!

    • Replies: @MarkinLA
  48. neir says:

    making accurate financial market prediction requires a super high IQ which 99.9% of human do not possess.
    This JP Morgan artificial intelligence however has made the correct prediction: US stock market will decline in the short term, but reverse to bullish in the long term; while US treasury yield is about to bottom in July and reverse sharply higher. So inflation is coming, even if there is a recession, it will be a brief one.

    https://www.zerohedge.com/news/2019-06-29/jpmorgan-asks-its-ariticial-intelligence-model-whats-next-market-here-answer

  49. MarkinLA says:
    @Maciano

    You’ve been saying this for years

    And anybody with a decent knowledge of financial history knows that bubbles can go on for a long time, far longer than most people think. What determines the length is how many suckers continue to enter. Everybody who accepts bitcoin and needs to pay real bills has to cash it out at some exchange. Those exchanges periodically up and disappear. When a big enough one does, there will be a huge stampede and collapse.

    I believe the 1929 stock market collapse had a ten year run before the collapse. It was held up by allowing people to buy stock on 90% margin. When people ran out of available real cash to keep the bubble going, enough people had to sell causing prices to go down. With everybody margined and also needing to get out to answer the margin call, the collapse accelerated.

    There is a big difference between some drivel some guy writes about money and the currency we have in circulation. The biggest is that by force of law, the dollar must be accepted by anybody in America for all debts public and private. NOBODY has to accept bitcoin. As an aside, private bank notes had the same problem as bitcoin has, when the bank is insolvent, your bank notes are worthless.

  50. MarkinLA says:
    @prime noticer

    don’t you read The Morgan Report? silver is about to break out.

    Bitcoin is a lot like all those precious metal scams where they sell you a piece of paper telling you how much silver or gold you have in their vault. You can ask for physical gold or silver at any time but that requires a shipping fee and you have to provide your own storage.

    The benefit of the certificate is that you can trade it with other people or for cash and you have no storage costs, unlike if you buy a contract on a commodities exchange and don’t want to take delivery, you usually have a yearly storage fee while your gold or silver bars sit in the COMEX vaults.

    Back in the 70s well known gold bug Howard Ruff was selling people on this idea. He finally decided to visit the company and found out there was nothing in the vault. The people who ran the company started using the investor’s gold and money to bet against their customers in the commodity exchanges and lost big. They underestimated the ability of the bubble to last as long as it did and got greedy. Just maintaining the exchange wasn’t making that much money but a drop in the gold price would make tons more money.

  51. Aft says:
    @neutral

    Because it can’t be banned…

  52. Aft says:
    @Anon

    Probably. But trickier by there being some limits to arbitrage of buying property in foreign countries or doing business there etc. Plus it’s a very slow long term play which isn’t ideal for high rate of return.

    https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_countries_by_GDP_(real)_per_capita_growth_rate

    The smarter play: Know a lot about HBD, racial conflict, politics and white flight. Purchase real estate accordingly. It’s no secret why Nashville, Austin, or Portland face skyrocketing real estate prices and it’s not diversity. One could do very well buying ahead of those trends of demographics and renting them out as airbnbs where there are temporary housing shortages etc.

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