For a long time, the world’s most recognizable proponent of radical life extension – not to mention significant scientist in his own right, and not just in gerontology – kept refraining from giving any quantitative predictions of when we would reach “longevity escape velocity.”
However, I notice that he has been getting a great deal more bullish in the past couple of years.
Worth noting that he is getting distinctly optimistic about timelines for mouse rejuvenation and has (for the first time that I am aware of) started attaching probability distributions to various scenarios – 80% of achieving longevity escape velocity if you are currently aged 25.
By February 2018, he had given a 50% chance of RBM (Robust Mouse Rejuvenation) in about half a decade.
Now, he believes it is just 3 years away:
There’s a good discussion about this at /r/longevity.
I am not qualified to assess to what extend this newfound optimism is justified (I read De Grey’s Ending Aging and didn’t get large parts of it). But we should have a much better idea about that come ~2022.