There is a non-trivial chance of a color revolution in Armenia in the next few days.
I don’t follow domestic Armenian politics, but the basic gist of it is that the two-term President Serzh Sargsyan – who is highly unpopular due to increases in utilities tariffs – has recently transitioned from the Presidency to the Prime Ministership. This was accompanied by a bill making Armenia a parliamentary republic, in effect extending his rule.
Although the opposition is relatively more pro-EU, the reality is that any minimally sane “maidanist” government in Armenia will still be pro-Russian, as I pointed out three years ago during a similar round of protests.
Here is the reason why in one chart:
Of course, the essential qualifier is “minimally sane.” But Maidanism is more of a religious phenomenon, so no firm predictions can be made.
Some of my old articles on Armenia: